Headlines

Go To Pro Hockey Rumors
Go To Hoops Rumors

MLB Announces “Interim Support” Plan To Pay Minor League Players

By | at

Major League Baseball has announced a plan that will see minor league players receive some form of financial help while the baseball world is in limbo due to the COVID-19 pandemic.  As per the media release…

Each player who is under a Minor League Uniform Player Contract will receive a lump sum equal to the allowances that would have been paid through April 8th.  The exceptions to this plan are non-40-man-roster players who are already receiving Major League allowances; players who are currently receiving housing, food or other services from Clubs; and players who were not participating in, or expected to participate in, Minor League Spring Training.   MLB remains in communication with Clubs on the development of an industry-wide plan for Minor League player compensation from April 9th through the beginning of the coming season.

The announcement also called this plan an “initial step,” as “MLB intends to continue working with all 30 Clubs to identify additional ways to support those players as a result of the delayed 2020 season.”  In essence, the league now has a couple more weeks to figure out a longer-term answer to the problem of paying minor league players, amidst the countless other issues that must be addressed during this prolonged shutdown.

While some teams (including the Rays, Mets, and Dodgers) have already made arrangements to provide their minor leaguers with a stipend, this news from the league formalizes such payments across all 30 farm systems, covering hundreds of minor league players.  It will undoubtedly bring comfort to these athletes, the vast majority of whom didn’t receive any sort of notable signing bonus and have been earning less-than-minimum wage salaries during their playing careers.

The financial difficulties faced by minor league players was a subject of controversy well before the coronavirus outbreak, of course, though the timing of the league-wide shutdown right in the midst of Spring Training (when minor leaguers enjoyed the bonus of lodgings and meal money provided by their organizations) made the situation particularly troublesome.  Some clubs like the Diamondbacks have continued to provide these amenities to minor leaguers during the shutdown — as the Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro notes, D’Backs prospects thus won’t be subject to the league-wide policy.

Offseason In Review: Boston Red Sox

By | at

A transformative offseason for the Red Sox saw the club trade its franchise player, make an unexpected managerial change, and (perhaps most importantly in ownership’s view?) duck under the luxury tax threshold.

Major League Signings

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

When Alex Cora, Dave Dombrowski, Mookie Betts, and David Price were all taking turns hoisting the Commissioner’s Trophy in October 2018, it would’ve seemed inconceivable that all four men would no longer be members of the Red Sox organization just 15 months later.  And yet, it didn’t take long for the Sox to go from a 108-win World Series champion to a team suddenly facing a lot of questions.

Dombrowski was the first to depart, let go in early September amidst some reports suggesting Red Sox ownership considered firing him even a year prior.  As surprising as Dombrowski’s ouster was, Cora’s quick fall from grace was even more of a shock.  After the league’s report on the Astros’ sign-stealing exploits during the 2017 season cited Cora (then the Astros’ bench coach) as a key author of how Houston’s system of video footage and trash can-banging was constructed, the Sox fired Cora before MLB could announce even what punishment the now-former Red Sox skipper would face.

Speaking of stolen signs, the Red Sox are still currently awaiting the results of Major League Baseball’s investigation into whether or not the Sox made inappropriate use of video footage to steal signs during their own World Series campaign in 2018.  While the Red Sox aren’t expected to be as punished as severely as the Astros were, it’s probably safe to assume that some type of penalty is forthcoming, perhaps in the form of a lost draft pick or two.

Needless to say, Chaim Bloom had a lot to deal with after being hired as Boston’s new chief baseball officer in late October.  Bloom was already deep into offseason business before having to deal with an unforeseen managerial change, which could be one reason why the Sox chose to promote from within by naming bench coach Ron Roenicke as the interim manager.  Roenicke is a safe choice but hardly a bad one, as he is a known figure to Boston’s roster and had success in his only prior big league managerial stint with the Brewers from 2011-15.  If the Sox play well in 2020, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Roenicke become a longer-term answer in Boston’s dugout.

As a longtime member of the Rays front office, Bloom’s first offseason in total control of a baseball operations department resulted in something of a Tampa Bay-esque winter for the Sox.  It was an offseason of mostly low-cost signings and acquisitions, while moving a pair of expensive players in a trade that was driven largely by financial motivations.

Let’s start with the biggest blockbuster of the entire offseason: the Betts/Price trade with the Dodgers. What began as a three-team deal involving the Twins turned into another Los Angeles/Boston blockbuster after the Sox took issue with the medical records of Minnesota prospect Brusdar Graterol, who was supposed to be the one of the young minor league centerpieces headed to Boston in the deal.  In the end, the three-team arrangement was broken down in to two separate deals, with Graterol ending up going to Los Angeles as part of the trade that sent Kenta Maeda to the Twins, and the Red Sox swinging a deal with the Dodgers that saw Betts, Price, and $48MM (covering half of Price’s contract) for three interesting young talents.

Jeter Downs immediately became the top prospect in Boston’s farm system and potential second baseman of the future, while catcher/infielder Connor Wong also gives the Red Sox a future option behind the plate or even as a multi-positional backup catcher.  Both of these youngsters could be on track for the big leagues as early as 2021, while outfielder Alex Verdugo is already coming off a strong performance (.294/.342/.475 in 377 PA) in 2019, his first extended stint against Major League pitching.  Verdugo is expected to take over for Betts in right field, perhaps as early as the new Opening Day, as the delayed start to the season will likely give him time to recover from a stress fracture in his lower back.

It’s not at all a bad prospect haul, yet it’s also one many Boston fans and media members found inconceivable, given that one of pro sports’ wealthiest franchises was surrendering one of the game’s best players in what seemed like more or less a salary dump.  Principal owner John Henry’s late-September statement that the 2020 Sox “need to be under” the Competitive Balance Tax threshold after two seasons of overages loomed large over each transaction Bloom made this winter, no matter how much Henry tried to downplay his original comments both before and after the Betts trade.  Boston’s luxury tax number now stands at just under $196MM, as per Roster Resource, below the $208MM luxury tax threshold and indeed putting the Red Sox in line to reset their tax bill to zero.

A third consecutive season of CBT overage would have cost the Sox a 50 percent tax on every dollar spent over the $208MM threshold, plus an additional 12 percent surtax if their luxury tax number stood within the secondary penalty range ($228MM-$248MM).  As well, the Red Sox would’ve received a 50 percent deduction in their cut of revenue-sharing rebates, as outlined by the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier.

As of mid-January, Boston’s luxury tax payroll stood at roughly $237.89MM, so that third-timer penalty rate wouldn’t have been an insignificant extra expenditure….yet considering the franchise’s vast resources, it’s also hard to consider it a truly significant expenditure either, considering the on-field value lost by removing Betts from the lineup.

With a bit more hindsight, the Sox could’ve given themselves more CBT breathing room had they non-tendered Jackie Bradley Jr. back in December, as their subsequent efforts to trade the center fielder ended up fruitless.  Perhaps the Red Sox could have re-signed Bradley for a lower amount than his $11MM salary, or perhaps just replaced him with Kevin Pillar (a comparable player) at a much lesser price.  An outfield of Betts, Pillar, and Andrew Benintendi clearly looks more imposing than Boston’s current alignment of Verdugo, Bradley, and Benintendi, with Pillar as the fourth outfielder.

From a pure baseball perspective, Boston’s argument for trading Betts was that it made more sense to deal him now rather than risk letting him leave in free agency for nothing (save a qualifying offer compensation pick) next winter, or perhaps dealing him for a lesser package closer to the trade deadline if the Red Sox were out of the playoff race.  But, ownership has maintained all along that they intend the Sox to be contenders in 2020, and trading Betts and Price runs counter to that notion.

Going back to the hypothetical scenario I floated earlier, let’s pretend the Red Sox kept Price and Betts, non-tendered Bradley, and still signed Pillar and Mitch Moreland.  Let’s also assume a few more dollars are spent here and there over the course of the season to bring Boston’s tax number to $245MM.  That works out to a three-timer CBT bill just shy of $21MM, plus the approximately $6MM in lost revenue-sharing rebate money as calculated in Speier’s piece.

In essence, that makes the decision to trade Betts and Price a $27MM choice in terms of immediate money, plus the Red Sox get the peace of mind of knowing that they’re under the threshold now rather than having to perhaps scramble next winter to avoid a fourth year of CBT payments.  Rafael Devers and Eduardo Rodriguez are due for big arbitration raises next offseason, which would’ve counteracted some of the savings from having Moreland, Pillar, Perez, Workman, and still-with-the-Red Sox Betts all coming off the books.  (Plus, J.D. Martinez also has another opt-out decision at season’s end, so he might not be part of the 2021 roster.)

Is saving $27MM worth a much more difficult path back to the postseason?  Even with Betts and Price, obviously the Red Sox would’ve still faced a stiff test from their AL East rivals, plus more competition from the American League as a whole for wild card positions.  But, had the Sox not been in contention by the deadline this year, they could’ve traded some contracts to duck under the luxury tax anyway — or, had until the end of the 2021 season to figure out ways to avoid paying a penalty for a fourth straight season.

The Reds, Cardinals, Blue Jays, and Padres were all reported to have interest in acquiring Price over the offseason, but since the Red Sox weren’t able to trade the left-hander (and enough of his $96MM contract) alone, they ultimately had to package Price together with Betts to finally swing a deal.  Figuring out a solo Price deal quite possibly could have kept Betts in a Sox uniform in 2020, though Price’s own departure has no small impact on Boston’s roster.

Martin Perez was signed prior to the Price trade, but he will essentially serve as a southpaw-for-southpaw replacement in the rotation.  Perez had a fairly hot start to his 2019 season with Minnesota but saw his productivity plummet beginning in late May.  As much as Bloom is optimistic about Perez’s untapped potential, the lefty has been a mid-rotation innings-eater even during the best of times during his eight MLB seasons.

While Price’s age and injury history also make him a question mark heading into 2020, his presence would’ve brought more stability to the pitching staff than the current mix.  Ostensible staff ace Chris Sale is battling elbow problems and could still potentially face some type of surgery, though he’s begun a throwing program, and the Sox are hoping the extra rest in the elongated offseason allows Sale time to heal without missing any games.  Rodriguez is coming off a strong year, but Nathan Eovaldi is coming off an injury-plagued season and a wide array of arms (or an opener) could end up filling that fifth rotation spot.  The newly-signed Collin McHugh is a bit of a wild card as a either a rotation or bullpen candidate, assuming McHugh (who was only cleared to throw in late February) is himself healthy after dealing with elbow injuries.

McHugh could ultimately make more of an impact to the relief corps, which didn’t get much attention despite an overall middle-of-the-road performance in 2019.  The Sox are hoping that a change in roles can help, as Brandon Workman’s emergence as the closer can add some clarity to the rest of the bullpen’s roles.  If openers do become a part of Boston’s rotation picture, there could be more mix-and-match than usual in the Red Sox pen, perhaps taking a page from how the Rays used their relievers under Bloom over the last couple of seasons.

Besides Price, the Red Sox said goodbye to another veteran starter this offseason when Rick Porcello signed a free agent contract with the Mets.  A pair of other recent roster staples also departed, as super-utilityman Brock Holt signed with the Brewers and backup catcher Sandy Leon was dealt to the Indians.  New signings Kevin Plawecki and Jonathan Lucroy are competing for the backup catching job, while Jose Peraza will now somewhat replace Holt as a multi-position asset.  For now, Boston plans to use Peraza mostly as a second baseman, splitting time with Michael Chavis whenever Chavis isn’t filling in for Moreland at first base against left-handed pitching.  However, Peraza has experience at short and in the outfield, so he could move around in the event of injuries elsewhere on the roster.

2020 Season Outlook

We’ve gone this deep into the offseason review without really mentioning the three biggest reasons why the Red Sox could still contend for a wild card berth — Devers, Martinez, and Xander Bogaerts, who form as tough of a 1-2-3 punch as any lineup trio in baseball.  That group of sluggers goes a long way towards propping up a lineup that has some uncertainty, but also a lot of potential in Christian Vazquez, Verdugo, Benintendi, Chavis, Peraza and Moreland.  Even pitching-wise, despite all the injury questions, the Sox certainly have talent on hand if Sale and Eovaldi can stay healthy and Rodriguez matches his 2019 form.

Simply running it back with Betts and Price on this roster would’ve been a perfectly respectable idea on paper, except that Red Sox ownership felt it was more prudent to take a step back to reload the farm system and take the opportunity to get what they felt was an untenable contract (Price) off the books.  Ideally, the Sox wouldn’t have had to trade Betts to make that work, though perhaps reading between the tea leaves, the club felt Betts wasn’t going to re-sign with with Boston anyway next winter, making him ultimately expendable as a trade chip rather than as a long-term asset.

It’s a tough pill to swallow for the Fenway faithful, who have a right to be annoyed that the same Red Sox ownership group who has okayed several big-money signings and extensions over the years now feel the “need to” (to use Henry’s words from September) enact some financial prudence, even if it meant trading Betts.  Time will tell if the decision ends up being wise, but the window of contention that looked so wide open after the 2018 season is now much narrower.

How would you grade the Red Sox offseason?  (Link for app users.)

How Would You Grade The Red Sox Offseason?
C 31.98% (1,038 votes)
D 30.93% (1,004 votes)
F 19.22% (624 votes)
B 14.54% (472 votes)
A 3.33% (108 votes)
Total Votes: 3,246

Quick Hits: Peraza, Amateur Draft, Cardinals, Pitchers

By | at

Jose Peraza was linked to the Orioles, Indians, and two other unknown teams this offseason, though Peraza tells Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe that he heard from eight or nine clubs while on the open market.  Peraza chose to sign with the Red Sox because of their recent success (“It’s a great place to play baseball if you want to win a championship“) and the opportunity they presented for regular second base work.  “Second base is my most comfortable position.  I played a lot of second base in the minors.  I know I can help this team playing there,” Peraza said.  He saw quite a bit of second base action over his four seasons in Cincinnati, though the Reds gave Peraza more time as a shortstop (almost exclusively so in 2018) and also used him as an outfielder.  Peraza might get some utility action with the Sox but will likely see the most action as Boston’s first-choice option at the keystone.

More from around the baseball world…

  • The title of Keith Law’s latest piece for The Athletic (subscription required) says it all: “How do you prepare for the draft when there are no games to watch?”  Law speaks to several sources from teams and the league itself about how the 2020 amateur draft will be impacted by the COVID-19 shutdown, as universities and high schools have already halted their seasons.  Some of the draft’s top prospects, therefore, will have had little or no chance to play in front of scouts in weeks or even at all by the time the draft rolls around on June 12.  Pushing the draft back altogether could be an option, and other ideas suggested include holding prospect combines or “thrown-together tournaments” (in the words of one GM) so evaluators could look at the players in both workout and game scenarios.  There is no perfect solution to solve such a major interruption in the usual pre-draft process, of course, though Law suggests that Major League Baseball should “work with amateur institutions to waive the typical restrictions on amateur players. Nobody’s eligibility should be at stake here, not in these extraordinary circumstances.”
  • The Cardinals “will not make any [transactions] until we have more clarity on what the future holds,” president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.  This means everything from roster cuts, minor league assignments, releases, or any other moves that would have been expected within the next week had Spring Training progressed as per usual.  Despite some speculation on the subject, the league didn’t issue an official freeze on roster moves while the next steps are figured out during this shutdown period, even though some veterans on minor league contracts are approaching the opt-out dates in their contracts.  A couple of teams have made some minor league re-assignments in the interim, while the Nationals made the most notable move in releasing Hunter Strickland and David Hernandez.
  • “The longer the delay lasts, the longer it will take for the pitchers to reset, to rebuild,” ESPN.com’s Buster Olney writes about a timeline for the “second Spring Training” that will be required should the season get back on track.  The latest reports suggest that late May or early June could be earliest date for a new Opening Day, and should the season be delayed until closer to mid-summer, “some staffers believe something close to a month…will be required to get the pitchers up to speed.”  This is yet another complication facing the league and the MLBPA over the coming weeks or months as they try to work out what will be a heavily-reduced schedule.

Latest On League, MLBPA Discussions Over Player Access To Spring Camps

By | at

Major League Baseball issued a memorandum to all 30 teams earlier today that addressed multiple topics, most notably the halt of any organized player workouts at Spring Training facilities.  The plans outlined in the memo will be in place at least through Monday’s planned conference call between the teams and Commissioner Rob Manfred, and alterations could continue to be made Monday or in the days to come based on further developments concerning the spread of the coronavirus pandemic.

Joel Sherman of the New York Post detailed some of the main points of the memo, which focused primarily on immediate issues concerning Spring Training matters.  Such bigger-picture topics as a revised schedule were discussed between the league and the union, Sherman noted, though no decisions were made since it is too early to know when the season could potentially get underway.

The memo highlights many concerns that the MLBPA raised with the league over the last few days, as outlined by Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich of The Athletic (subscription required).  The Orioles, Brewers, Braves, Marlins and Mets were all cited in player complaints to the union about a lack of access to facilities.  As Rosenthal and Drellich put it, “even as MLB and the PA technically agree that facilities are to be open to major league players for now, they differ about what ’open’ means.”

As outlined in today’s memo, players on a 40-man roster “must be permitted to remain at the Club’s Spring Training site, and are eligible to receive their usual Spring Training allowances.”  Non-roster players were instructed to return to their normal homes, though such players with injury problems were allowed to stay in camp to receive treatment from team medical staffers, and “Clubs should work…to provide suitable accommodations” for any player who wished to remain in the United States rather than another country, or for American players “who reside in high-risk areas in the United States.”

The stability of a team facility offers obvious appeal to players who wish to keep training in preparation for whenever the season begins, though MLB and the individual teams have similarly understandable concerns about keeping players gathered in any sort of clustered situation.  “In the view of several executives and MLB officials, any objection to limited access in the middle of a public health crisis misses the larger point of trying to keep players safe,” Rosenthal and Drellich wrote, adding that teams are also worried about older staff members at the facilities who could be at greater risk of catching the coronavirus.

AL Notes: Pitchers, Mariners, Sale, Click

By | at

Pitchers are creatures of habit, yet the indeterminate delay to the 2020 season is the biggest possible disruption to any preseason routine.  Like every team, the Mariners are trying to figure out the best way of keeping their pitchers on some type of regular throwing schedule to keep them prepared, while not really knowing when actual games will get underway.  “You don’t want to lose a whole lot of momentum. We also don’t want to build them too quickly,” manager Scott Servais told MLB.com’s Greg Johns and other media.  “Most guys are at three or four innings, at 50-60 pitches, so we’ll try to keep them right there with our starters.  And then we’ll ramp them up once we get closer to knowing what the for-certain Opening Day would be.  For now, we just want guys to stay active, play some catch.  You won’t see anybody throwing sides or catchers with gear on, we’re just going to try to slow it down here for the next few days.”

More from around the American League….

  • One pitcher whose routine may not be impacted by the elongated offseason is Chris Sale, as Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom told reporters (including MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo) that “from a medical perspective, nothing really changes with” Sale’s loosely-established timeline.  “There’s uncertainty regarding his pitching status generally that we want to resolve.  We’re still going to want to resolve that,” Bloom said.  “We’re still going to want to progress him.  We haven’t gotten to that point yet, but we’re still going to work, even during this time period, without games, to get some progress and get some more definition on his status.”  A flexor strain led to Sale being shut down earlier this month, and if all is proceeding well, he should be on the verge of resuming throwing.  The delayed Opening Day could mean that Sale won’t miss any regular-season action, though naturally the Sox are taking things as carefully as possible with the ace southpaw.
  • James Click “rose from constructing an ultimate frisbee website on a whim to shepherding the Houston Astros forward,” the Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome writes in a profile of the Astros’ new general manager.  Click’s pre-Houston resume included a stint as a writer and database-builder for Baseball Prospectus, which led to 14 years working in the Rays’ front office thanks to a recommendation from another new Rays intern and former BP writer in Chaim Bloom, now Boston’s chief baseball officer.  Rome’s piece is a strong look at an executive whose arrival at a GM position comes with the added challenge of trying to reconfigure the Astros after an offseason of scandal and public scorn.

Phillies Sign Venezuelan Prospect Yhoswar Garcia

By | at

The Phillies have agreed to sign Venezuelan center fielder Yhoswar Garcia, Baseball America’s Ben Badler reports (Twitter link).  The Phils have been linked to Garcia for over a year, and are reportedly set to sign the 18-year-old to a bonus worth roughly $2.5MM.

Many of the top names in the 2019-20 international class were unofficially off the board since well before the signing window opened last July 2, though Garcia’s deal has only now been finalized because he only recently become eligible.  As Badler explained in December, there was an age-related holdup since Garcia initially presented a birthdate that indicated he was a year younger than his actual age.  The issue ended up being a delay rather than an obstacle, however, and Garcia will now join Philadelphia’s organization as planned.

Known as “The Drone,” Garcia backs up that MLB-ready nickname with “plus-plus speed in center field,” Badler writes.  Garcia is 6’1″ and a relatively thin 155 pounds, though MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez figures Garcia to gain more weight as he gets older and subsequently adds power to some already-intriguing hitting ability.  Garcia “shows good instincts and is a gap hitter,” according to Sanchez, who also feels Garcia has a lot of defensive promise as a center fielder with a good throwing arm.

Rumor Retrospection: The (Would-Be) Albert Pujols/Ryan Howard Trade Of 2010

By | at

It was exactly a decade ago today that ESPN.com’s Buster Olney dropped a bombshell on the baseball world, reporting that the Phillies had held some internal discussions within their front office about the possibility of a blockbuster deal of first basemen — Phils slugger Ryan Howard to the Cardinals for Albert Pujols.  It would have been a one-for-one trade, with both players switching uniforms with two years remaining on their current contracts.

As Olney observed in his report, the concept might well have been just an idea floated within Philadelphia’s front office, rather than an actual proposal made to the Cards.  Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. went a step further when asked to comment on the rumor, calling it “Lies.  That’s a lie. I don’t know who you’re talking to, but that’s a lie.”  (Olney defended his reporting two days later, calling it “confirmed information” and he knew “exactly who said what to whom, and how sturdy the intent was.”)

It was an eyebrow-raising trade rumor at the time, and though this particular swap apparently didn’t come close to being a reality, the concept of a straight-up superstar-for-superstar deal is still fascinating ten years later since such deals are so rare.  And, in this particular instance, we can judge with a decade of hindsight how a Pujols-for-Howard trade might have worked out for both the Phillies and the Cardinals.

For St. Louis, the impact is simple — they might not have won the 2011 World Series without Pujols.  2011 marked what was, incredibly, the least-impressive of Pujols’ 11 MLB seasons, as he “only” hit .299/.366/.541 with 37 home runs over 651 PA.  This performance was just the warmup for an epic postseason, as Pujols posted a 1.155 OPS over 82 PA during the Cardinals’ 18 playoff games.  Pujols’ efforts included a three-homer night in Game 3 of the World Series, putting him alongside Babe Ruth and Reggie Jackson as the only men (Pablo Sandoval joined the club in 2012) to ever hit three home runs in a Series game.

Could the Cardinals have won a title with Howard in Pujols’ place?  It’s possible, as while Howard wasn’t quite as productive as Pujols during the 2011 regular season, Howard still hit .276/.353/.505 and 31 homers.  Who’s to say how those numbers might have differed in a new ballpark and a new environment as a Cardinal rather than as a Phillie; Howard, a St. Louis native, might have thrived with his hometown team, or perhaps struggled under the added pressure.

What likely doesn’t happen in this what-if scenario, however, is the nasty injury Howard suffered in his (and the Phillies’) last at-bat of the 2011 season.  Making the final out of the 2011 NLDS, Howard tore his Achilles tendon leaving the batters’ box to run out a grounder, and he didn’t return to action until July 6, 2012.  It ended up being a career-altering injury for Howard, as while he was already showing a tiny bit of decline from his prime years and any sort of dropoff for a power hitter isn’t uncommon as he enters his 30’s, the before-and-after of Howard’s Achilles injury is jarring.  From 2012-16, Howard hit only .226/.292/.427 over 2122 PA.

The Phillies lost that 2011 NLDS to, ironically, the Cardinals.  It was the second straight year the Phillies had fallen short in the playoffs after a dominant regular season, and it ultimately proved to be the end of that great era of Philadelphia baseball.  In the eight years since, the Phillies have yet to enjoy another winning season, only managing an even .500 record on two occasions (2012, 2019).  While Howard was a big part of the Phillies’ success in 2010 and 2011, replacing him with Pujols’ next-level production might well have been the difference in a World Series victory in either 2010, 2011, or both seasons.

The other major side effect of this trade is what happens after the 2012 season.  A little over a month after Olney’s report, the Phillies signed Howard to a five-year, $125MM extension covering the 2012-16 seasons.  Since Howard was already 30 years old at the time of the extension and under contract for two more years, there was a pretty immediate and negative reaction to the Phillies’ decision, and while the Achilles injury wasn’t foreseen, the deal indeed ended up being a bust for the Phils.

That said, does Howard still ink an extension if he ends up with St. Louis in this alternate reality?  As Olney noted, the Cardinals weren’t making progress with Pujols on an extension, so they could have had interest in Howard as a potential long-term replacement.  The difference, however, could’ve been that the Cards might have waited at least a season before locking Howard up.  Looking back at past extensions for such Cardinals notables as Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, or Paul Goldschmidt, the team has tended to wait until just before the pending free agent’s final season under contract to finalize a new deal.  A Cardinals/Howard extension could been potentially lesser in both years and dollars, if Howard has performed for the Cards in 2010 as he did in the real world (.276/.353/.505 with 31 home runs) for Philadelphia.  While still strong numbers, they nonetheless represented a step back from the 50 homers Howard averaged every season from 2006-09, while also batting .278/.379/.589.

As for Pujols, he did depart St. Louis after that 2011 World Series title, signing a ten-year, $240MM deal with the Angels that still has two seasons remaining.  While the Phillies were willing to splurge on Howard, extending Pujols would’ve cost twice the years and almost twice the money as Howard’s extension.  Maybe the Phils (perhaps flush off Pujols leading them to a championship or two) would have decided that Pujols was worth the extra investment and signed him to a similar extension.  Assuming the Pujols in this multiverse declined at the same pace as our universe’s Pujols did with the Angels, such a deal could have left the Phillies with an even bigger contractual albatross on their hands….especially if the Pujols-led 2010 Phils or 2011 Phils hadn’t won a World Series, leaving the team without even a “flags fly forever” silver lining.

Another route is that the Phils work out a more creative extension with Pujols, perhaps overwriting the terms of his 2010-11 salaries to give him more money sooner and less money on the back end in his decline years.  Or, in what might have been ultimately the best-case scenario for Philadelphia, the team could have just let Pujols depart for free agency after the 2011 season.  That would have left room in the Phils’ budget and a hole at first base, which could have put the team in the market for another of that offseason’s top free agent first basemen — Prince Fielder.

Needless to say, such a major trade would’ve greatly altered the last decade of Major League Baseball, and likely swung at least one World Series result.  Given how the last ten years played out for the Phillies, maybe there’s someone from that club’s front office who, if this trade proposal indeed never got past the internal discussion phase, wishes they’d picked up the phone to at least give the Cards a call.

Offseason In Review: Tampa Bay Rays

By | at

After reaching the ALDS last season, the Rays had their usual busy offseason in search of the roster mix that could bring them into championship contention.

Major League Signings

  • Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, 3B/OF: Two years, $12MM (plus $2.4MM in posting/release fees to Yokohama DeNA BayStars)
  • Total spend: $14.4MM

Trades And Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

After finishing second among Tampa Bay position players with a 3.3 fWAR in 2019, Tommy Pham found himself heading out of town, sent to the Padres as part of a four-player deal.  The minor leaguers exchanged in that deal — highly-touted infielder Xavier Edwards and a potential two-way threat in Jake Cronenworth — are certainly noteworthy, with the Rays getting the slightly longer-term prospect in Edwards while Cronenworth could help San Diego as early as this season.  But, looking at just the big-league return in the trade, the Rays sent an older, pricier, but more established hitter in Pham to the Padres for the powerful but less-polished young slugger in Hunter Renfroe.

With 70 homers over 1450 career plate appearances, we know Renfroe can mash, though his lifetime batting average (.235) and OBP (.294) leave much to be desired.  2019 saw Renfroe enjoy something of a breakout in the first half of the season before being hampered by injuries, though even Renfroe’s numbers prior to the All-Star break (.252/.308/.613 with 27 homers in 289 PA) showed only modest improvement in the average and on-base categories.

Nonetheless, Renfroe is almost four full years younger than Pham, brings more defensive versatility as an outfielder who can be deployed in center field in a pinch, and has a much lower price tag.  Renfroe is controlled through the 2023 season as a Super Two player, and is set to earn $3.3MM in 2020, his first arbitration-eligible year.  By contrast, Pham will earn $7.9MM in 2020, which is the second of three arb years.

In short, the deal almost seems like a prototypical Rays move — they got a bit younger, saved some money, and acquired a player in Renfroe who could offer enough untapped potential to be just as good or better than Pham in 2020 (plus, there’s also the lingering injury question of Pham’s elbow).  Flexibility and depth continue to be paramount in Tampa’s approach to roster building, as the Rays can wield a lineup that offers a lot of different looks, and is stocked with players who could be moved around to different positions based on circumstances.

Consider the Rays’ major free agent signing of the winter, as they landed Japanese slugger Yoshitomo Tsutsugo after a focused recruitment process that convinced Tsutsugo to reject more expensive offers for Tampa Bay’s two-year, $12MM contract.  Tsutsugo is a bit of a defensive question mark as a first baseman or left fielder, yet the Rays are planning to give Tsutsugo a look at third base; a position he hasn’t played since 2014.

It’s safe to assume that Yandy Diaz will end up getting the majority of playing time at third base, but if Tsutsugo can step in at the hot corner even once in a while to spell Diaz against a tough righty starter, that opens up a spot in the lineup for a left-handed hitting Joey Wendle, or perhaps another lefty bat in Nate Lowe (should Lowe make the Opening Day roster).  Even if the Tsutsugo/third base experiment doesn’t work out, Wendle can play third base himself, and Tsutsugo could perhaps then just be slotted into the first base/DH mix.

Speaking of first base/DH candidates, the Rays added another prominent name to that list in acquiring Jose Martinez from the Cardinals.  Rumors have swirled about the Rays’ interest in Martinez for well over a year, and the lefty-crushing slugger will now be the primary right-handed hitting first base/DH option, alongside the lefty-swinging Tsutsugo, Lowe, and Ji-Man Choi.  While Martinez can play first base or a corner outfield spot, he is probably the rare Rays pickup who wasn’t targeted for his roster flexibility, due to Martinez’s longstanding defensive struggles.

Between Martinez, Tsutsugo, and Renfroe, the Rays hope they can replace or top the 57 home runs that departed last year’s lineup — Pham, Avisail Garcia (who signed with the Brewers) and Travis d’Arnaud (who signed with the Braves).  The long ball wasn’t a big weapon for Tampa Bay in 2019, as their 217 homers ranked them 21st of the 30 teams, but that number could rise thanks to both the new faces and healthier seasons from the likes of Diaz, Wendle, and Brandon Lowe.

With Guillermo Heredia non-tendered and Garcia leaving in free agency, the Rays looked at such free agents as Yasiel Puig and Shogo Akiyama as options in the outfield.  Instead, Tampa Bay bolstered its outfield depth by adding Randy Arozarena as part of the trade with the Cardinals, while also acquiring Manuel Margot in another trade with the Padres.  It was only a few years ago that Margot was a consensus top-25 prospect in all of baseball, and while he has shown to be an excellent defender at the MLB level, his bat (84 wRC+, 87 OPS+) has yet to emerge.  Since Margot is still only 25, it isn’t out of the question that he could be a late bloomer.

The Rays paid a pretty substantial price for Margot, sending their 2019 saves leader in Emilio Pagan westward.  Pagan’s lone season in Tampa Bay was a very impressive one, as he recorded 20 saves while posting a 2.31 ERA, 7.38 K/BB rate, and 12.3 K/9 over 70 innings.  Between Pagan, Austin Pruitt (dealt to the Astros), Jose De Leon, and Matthew Liberatore, the Rays did more subtracting than adding to their pitching, though Tampa is arguably one of the few teams deep enough in pitching options to handle dealing from a surplus.

To this end, the Rays will count on their collection of arms to manage the bullpen, with a closing committee of Diego Castillo, Nick Anderson, Jose Alvarado, and possibly others to handle save situations.  As for the rotation, the Rays will can always fall back on using an opener if necessary, but the team looks ready to enter the season with a rotation of five proper starting pitchers: Charlie Morton, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Yonny Chirinos, and likely one of Ryan Yarbrough or Brendan McKay.  There is some uncertainty within that group given Glasnow’s injury-riddled 2019 and Snell’s nagging elbow problems, though both are expected to be ready by the time the 2020 season eventually gets underway.

As with basically any Rays player that makes a substantial salary, there was some speculation that Morton could be a trade chip now or in the near future, should Tampa Bay fall out of the pennant race.  Morton is being paid $15MM in 2020 and (if he doesn’t retire) he has a vesting option on his services for 2021 that will be worth another $15MM if he spends less than 30 days on the injured list this season.  The 36-year-old is still pitching at a very high level, and it makes sense why the Rays seemingly didn’t test the market for him this offseason, as Morton is even more valuable considering the lingering health questions surrounding Snell and Glasnow.

Pham ended up being the one larger salary moved off Tampa’s books, which was probably the more logical move than trading Morton since good outfield help is somewhat easier to find than a front-of-the-rotation pitcher.  GM Erik Neander faces a difficult challenge in trying to manage a small budget while also trying to build a contender, and as such Rays trades are rarely as simple as a one-for-one swap.  Getting young talent back in deals is of critical importance, whether it’s landing Edwards from San Diego, a higher Competitive Balance Round draft pick from St. Louis, or acquiring catching prospect Logan Driscoll from the Padres in the Pagan deal.  Driscoll was the Padres’ second-round pick in the 2019 draft, and down the road he could develop into yet another “catcher of the future” candidate for a Rays franchise that has long looked for stability behind the plate.

After d’Arnaud signed with Atlanta, the Rays will head into 2020 with Mike Zunino as their starting catcher.  Zunino’s struggles led to d’Arnaud taking over the regular job last season, leaving the Rays hoping that Zunino’s dreadful year was just an aberration.  A couple of veteran backstops in Kevan Smith and Chris Herrmann are in camp on minor league deals, and Michael Perez is in the in-house contender for the backup position.  Unless Zunino gets on track during the season, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Rays make catching a priority before the trade deadline.

Between dealing Pham, the free agent departures, and non-tendering players like Heredia, Jesus Aguilar, and Matt Duffy, the Rays opened up enough money to do some offseason spending without much changing their financial outlook.  As per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Rays have a projected Opening Day payroll of just under $67.6MM, which represents an increase of barely $150K over their season-ending 40-man roster payroll.

The Rays’ spending habits continue to draw attention from the MLBPA, whose grievance against the team’s use of revenue-sharing funds (in essence, wondering why those funds aren’t being spent on player salaries) was expanded to cover both the 2017-18 and 2018-19 offseasons.  Grievance notwithstanding, it doesn’t appear as if much will change for the Rays on the payroll front unless they are finally able to land their long-desired new ballpark in Tampa or St. Petersburg…or perhaps one new stadium in the Tampa/St. Pete area and another in Montreal, should the organization’s unusual split-city concept comes to fruition.

2020 Season Outlook

If it’s possible for a team to quietly win 96 games, the Rays did just that in 2019, finishing just a game short of the highest win total in franchise history.  Nothing Tampa Bay did this winter remotely came close to the Yankees’ $324MM splash on Gerrit Cole, and while New York’s on-paper roster seems far more star-studded than the Rays’ collection, Tampa finished only seven games out of the AL East lead last season.  While the Yankees famously won 103 games despite a myriad of injuries last year, the Rays also achieved their success despite losing a number of key players for long stretches of time.

The American League will be more competitive on the whole in 2020, so even capturing another wild card would represent a nice achievement for the Rays.  This could be particularly true since two ex-Rays executives are now running other AL rivals — the Red Sox hired former Rays senior VP of baseball operations Chaim Bloom as their new chief baseball officer, while the Astros hired former Rays VP of baseball operations James Click as their new GM in February, after Houston’s firing of Jeff Luhnow as a result of the sign-stealing scandal.

With other organizations trying to ape the Rays’ track record of quality acquisitions at low-cost prices, it leaves Neander and the remaining front office members with more of a challenge in keeping things afloat in Tampa Bay, especially with a roster that could be on the brink of a special season.  It will be interesting to see how the Rays manage the assets of arguably the league’s best farm system in making further additions to this team in July, whether a major trade could take place, or whether the front office will continue this offseason’s pattern of somewhat quieter moves.

How would you grade the Rays’ offseason?  (Link for app users.)

How would you grade the Rays' offseason?
B 50.32% (1,270 votes)
A 22.15% (559 votes)
C 21.55% (544 votes)
D 3.53% (89 votes)
F 2.46% (62 votes)
Total Votes: 2,524

Trey Mancini Undergoes Surgery To Remove Malignant Tumor

By | at

March 13: General manager Mike Elias addressed Mancini’s surgery today (Twitter link via MLB.com’s Joe Trezza), telling Orioles reporters: “[Mancini is] at about as positive as possible in terms of his spirits and physical feeling right now.” Additional information and updates will be available in the days to come.

March 12: Trey Mancini left the Orioles’ spring camp last week in preparation for an undisclosed medical procedure that wasn’t related to baseball.  Today, details have emerged on the nature of Mancini’s issue, as the Orioles issued a press release saying that a malignant tumor was discovered in Mancini’s colon during a colonoscopy last week.  Mancini underwent surgery today to have the tumor removed, and as per the team’s statement, “lab results and the timetable for Trey’s recovery will not be known until next week.”

Mancini himself made a statement within the Orioles’ release, saying “The outpouring of love and support I have received has made an extremely tough week so much better. I have the best family, friends, fans, and teammates imaginable. I am also eternally thankful for the Orioles front office, our athletic trainers, and the entire medical staff for everything they have done to help me during this time. Finally, I would like to thank everyone for their prayers and kind words, which have furthered my excitement to get back to playing the game I love.”

Baltimore manager Brandon Hyde said last week that Mancini would “miss some time” recovering, which seemed to imply that Mancini would miss some regular season action.  That is probably a moot point in light of Major League Baseball’s announcement that that Opening Day will be delayed by at least two weeks, though regardless, baseball concerns were already a far distant second to Mancini’s health and well-being.

In three full seasons in the majors, Mancini (who turns 28 later this week) has blossomed into the Orioles’ top hitter, batting .291/.364/.535 with 35 homers over 679 plate appearances in 2019.  Between this production and the fact that the O’s are in a rebuild, there was speculation that Mancini could be both an extension candidate and a trade candidate this offseason, though no news on either front emerged.

We at MLBTR wish Mancini all the best in his recovery, as he and his family and loved ones navigate this difficult situation.

MLB Trade Rumors is not affiliated with Major League Baseball, MLB or MLB.com

Do not Sell or Share My Personal Information

hide arrows scroll to top