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Rangers Acquire Welington Castillo

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The Rangers have acquired catcher Welington Castillo and international draft bonus pool money from the White Sox in exchange for minor league outfielder and corner infielder Jonah McReynolds, as per Rangers executive VP of communications John Blake (Twitter link).  Texas has also outrighted left-hander Jesse Biddle and outfielder Zack Granite to Triple-A, with Biddle first being reinstated from the 60-day injured list.

The Rangers will get $250K in international bonus funds, as per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (Twitter link), which seems to have been the team’s real incentive for the trade.  Texas is expected to decline Castillo’s $8MM club option and instead pay him a $500K buyout.

In essence, the White Sox decided to save that $500K of Major League payroll in favor of giving up $250K in international money.  It could be that the Sox also simply decided McReynolds was of more interest to them than any other prospects who might arise on the international market.

Castillo became expendable in Chicago after he hit only .209/.267/.417 over 251 PA in 2019, losing playing time to James McCann in the process.  This comes on the heels of a 2018 season that saw Castillo post some respectable numbers (94 OPS+, 96 wRC+) for a catcher over 181 PA, though that year was marred by an 80-game PED suspension.

While the $8MM salary was too rich for the Rangers’ liking, it wouldn’t be a total surprise to see the team have an interest in Castillo at a lower price.  While Castillo struggled at the plate last year, his numbers still represent an improvement over what the current Texas catching corps (Jeff Mathis, Jose Trevino, Isiah Kiner-Falefa) produced in 2019.  Then again, the Rangers could also choose to stand pat at catcher since they have several other areas to address this winter.

McReynolds, who turns 24 in December, was a 13th-round pick for the Rangers in the 2016 draft.  He has a .217/.285/.322 slash line over 637 PA in his first four pro seasons, the last three of which have been spent at low A-ball.  He has played all over the diamond as a professional, though spent much of 2019 focused on third base and first base.

Diamondbacks Decline Options On Flores, McFarland; Outright Almonte, Scott

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The Diamondbacks announced that they won’t be exercising their club options on either infielder Wilmer Flores or left-hander T.J. McFarland.  Flores’ $6MM option will be bought out for $500K, while McFarland will receive a $50K buyout rather than a $1.85MM salary for the 2020 season.  In addition to these moves, the D’Backs also announced that outfielder Abraham Almonte and lefty Robby Scott have been outrighted to Triple-A.

Though a right foot contusion cost him almost two months of the season, Flores’ first year in Arizona was a successful one when he was able to take the field.  The 28-year-old hit .317/.361/.387 over 285 PA, and while a particular power surge against left-handed pitching led to some significant splits (.337/.367/.615 against lefties, .304/.358/.404 against righties), Flores was still plenty dangerous against all types of pitching.

Flores was primarily used at second base last year, handling the keystone whenever Ketel Marte wasn’t in center field.  Given that the D’Backs will again look to move Marte around the diamond next year, retaining Flores for the extra $5.5MM wouldn’t have seemed like an exorbitant choice.  Then again, the team might not have expected Flores to duplicate his 2019 performance, given that Flores’ .362 wOBA far outpaced his .329 xwOBA, and he also had some notable batted-ball luck in the form of a .332 BABIP.

It isn’t out of the question that the Diamondbacks could look to re-sign Flores at a lesser price, though one would imagine he’ll get interest from multiple teams looking for a versatile infielder (Flores also saw a lot of action at third base during his time with the Mets) who can crush southpaws.

After posting a 2.00 ERA over 72 frames for Arizona in 2018, McFarland’s bottom-line numbers (4.82 ERA) came back down to earth last year, even though a lot of his peripheral statistics weren’t too dissimilar.  The grounder specialist ran into trouble when he did let the ball get into the air last year, as McFarland’s 17.1% home run rate was a career high.

Rays Outright Hoby Milner

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The Rays have outrighted Hoby Milner off of their 40-man roster, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports (via Twitter).  The left-hander will reject his outright assignment to the minors and instead become a free agent.

Milner, 28, posted a 3.06 ERA, 6.85 K/9, and 13.0 K/9 over 61 2/3 bullpen innings for Triple-A Durham in 2019.  Despite this impressive performance, Milner only tossed 3 2/3 Major League innings, with injuries perhaps keeping him from getting more of a look once the minor league season was over.  Milner was placed on the 60-day injured list in September due to a cervical neck injury.

Assuming good health, one would assume Milner’s impressive Triple-A track record would net him a new contract with another team.  Originally a seventh-round pick for the Phillies in the 2012 draft, Milner has a 3.40 ERA over 42 1/3 career innings in the big leagues.

Red Sox Claim Josh Osich

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The Red Sox have claimed left-hander Josh Osich off waivers from the White Sox, as per a team announcement.

Originally claimed off waivers from the Orioles last March, Osich posted a 4.66 ERA, 4.07 K/9 rate, and 8.1 K/9 over 67 2/3 relief innings for the White Sox last season.  Osich’s effectiveness was limited to same-sided batters, as he held left-handed hitters to only a .551 OPS (115 plate appearances) while right-handed hitters mashed him to the tune of a .903 OPS (157 PA).

These numbers largely match Osich’s rather lopsided splits for his career, making him one of many specialist relievers (particularly lefties) whose careers could be altered by the three-batter minimum rule coming into effect in 2020.  From Boston team in need of bullpen reinforcements, however, clearly the team sees value in exploring Osich’s potential.  The 31-year-old does possess a mid-90’s fastball, and he has a solid 48.5% grounder rate over his 188 career MLB innings.

The waiver claim will shave a little bit of money off Chicago’s book, as Osich was projected to earn $1MM in his first year of arbitration eligibility.

Offseason Outlook: Miami Marlins

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The rebuilding Marlins will continue to add low-cost veterans and potential hidden-gem younger players as they continue to assemble what they hope will eventually be a winning core.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Wei-Yin Chen, SP: $22MM through 2020 ($16MM player option can vest for 2021)
  • Miguel Rojas, SS: $10.25MM through 2021 (includes $500K buyout of $5.5MM club/vesting option for 2022)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

Free Agents

The Marlins achieved one major bit of winter business before the regular season even ended, inking manager Don Mattingly to a two-year extension with a mutual option for the 2022 season.  The longest-tenured skipper in Marlins history will continue his work mentoring the young faces in Miami’s dugout, though given the contract’s length, it’s an open question as to whether Mattingly will get a chance to manage a Marlins team that is actually trying to win.

As the Marlins come off a 105-loss season, some pieces have started to come into place in South Beach.  Brian Anderson has two seasons of quality results under his belt, and he’ll line up as the everyday option at either third base or (less likely) in right field, allowing the Fish a bit of flexibility in their offseason shopping.  The newly-extended Miguel Rojas and top prospect Isan Diaz can handle middle infield duties, though Diaz is still getting his feet wet and could stand to be supplemented. Jorge Alfaro is still something of a work in progress, but he’ll continue to function as Miami’s everyday catcher. The Marlins also netted some good results from such unheralded pickups as Garrett Cooper, Harold Ramirez, and Jon Berti.  In the rotation, Sandy Alcantara and Caleb Smith showed some potential, though Smith’s production tailed off in the second half.

The larger question is, as with Mattingly, whether any of these players could conceivably be part of the next winning Marlins team, given that the Fish still look to have at least two more rebuilding years ahead of them.  This wouldn’t be a case of cutting payroll since almost every member of Miami’s roster is a pre-arbitration player, though CEO Derek Jeter and president of baseball operations Michael Hill could look to turn any single one of the club’s notable performers into a younger/higher-upside player (or players) who could help the team down the road.

To that end, it wouldn’t be a total shock to see Anderson, Alcantara, Alfaro, or Smith (who already drew some attention at the trade deadline) dealt if the right offer came along.  On the other hand, after so much roster churn in recent years, the Marlins’ front office could also see value in some simple continuity as part of the building process, plus 2020 is another year for the team to see what they really have in several of these still-developing players.

That question also extends to some Marlins who have yet to make the leap.  Diaz struggled over his first 201 Major League plate appearances, though Miami will give its hopeful second baseman-of-the-future plenty of time to develop.  The same might not be true of Lewis Brinson, who is entering his final option year and (through 709 PA) has shown no sign of being able to hit MLB pitching.  Brinson’s struggles have only been magnified by the fact that he was the headliner of the prospect package the Marlins received from the Brewers in the Christian Yelich trade — in fact, it could be argued that each of the three other players (Diaz, Jordan Yamamoto, Monte Harrison) in the deal have now surpassed Brinson in importance to the Marlins’ future plans.

While the Marlins would obviously love to see Brinson finally break out in 2020, the club will look to add at least one veteran outfielder to help carry the load.  Cooper, Ramirez, Austin Dean, and utilityman Berti will also be in the outfield mix, and reinforcements could be on the way relatively early in the season if minor leaguers Harrison and Jesus Sanchez play well at Triple-A.  Sanchez, acquired from the Rays in the Nick Anderson/Trevor Richards trade last July, will be looking to regain some of his prospect stock after a disappointing 2019 season.

Cooper could be deployed at first base, or the Marlins could opt to add a more proven bat at the position to upgrade one of the league’s worst offenses.  Free agents like Justin Smoak or Mitch Moreland wouldn’t break the bank, or a multi-positional player (e.g. Howie Kendrick, Brock Holt) could be penciled in at first base but really move around the diamond to help at various spots.  If Diaz were to struggle again, for instance, a Kendrick or a Holt could end up seeing more time at second base.

In terms of adding a veteran presence, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Fish re-sign some of their veteran additions from last season.  Neil Walker and Curtis Granderson have both expressed an interest in returning to the Marlins, while Martin Prado is a beloved figure in Miami who would also seemingly have a place as a bench piece, if he decides to continue playing.

Even though Miami will buy out Starlin Castro’s option, a case could be made that he could also be re-signed to an inexpensive one-year deal to play third base (and provide second base cover for Diaz), with Anderson moving into right field until the younger outfielders were ready.  Castro is coming off an unusual season that saw him post a dreadful .571 OPS over the first three months (345 PA), only to then deliver a .909 OPS over his final 331 plate appearances. The veteran clearly has something left in the tank and will be only 30 years old on Opening Day.  The more likely scenario, however, is that the Marlins will let Castro leave after two seasons.

With Prado and Castro both off the books, the Marlins have only $33.625MM in payroll committed to guaranteed salaries and projected arbitration salaries, and that number could drop even moreso if the Fish choose to non-tender Adam Conley or JT Riddle.  Given the organization’s usual M.O., it’s hard to project that the Marlins could spend the extra money on a higher tier of free agent, but the financial flexibility is there if Jeter and Hill see an intriguing opportunity. Notably, there are a few relatively youthful corner outfielders kicking around that may not all find the kinds of opportunities they are hoping for with other organizations.

One tactic the Marlins could explore is taking on an undesirable contract from another team, with the other club throwing in a couple of interesting prospects to sweeten the pot.  Such a bad-contract swap is also the only way the Marlins could possibly unload Wei-Yin Chen, who is single-handedly responsible for almost two-thirds of Miami’s current payroll, though parting with their own young talent to further pare an already barebones payroll probably won’t make sense for the Fish.  If Chen can’t be dealt, the team might simply release him to make extra roster space.

Alcantara and Smith headline the rotation, with Yamamoto, Pablo Lopez, Elieser Hernandez, Robert Dugger, and potentially Jose Urena in the mix for the other starting jobs.  Urena finished an injury-shortened 2019 season pitching out of the bullpen in September once he returned from the injured list.  Given that he was a solid workhorse in both 2017 and 2018, the Marlins will likely stretch him out as a starter again in Spring Training before considering more relief work.  Alternatively, due to the fact that he’s only controlled through the 2021 season, Urena could also be a candidate to be moved this winter, although Miami would hardly be selling at a high point.

There’s plenty of room in this young rotation for a veteran innings eater or bounce-back candidate, and if the Marlins were to spend some money, this might be the most logical spot.  Free agents like Alex Wood, Tanner Roark or Matt Harvey could all fit, or the club could look into signing Miami native Gio Gonzalez.

Any veteran arm signed for either the rotation or bullpen could also double as a possible trade chip come the deadline, as was the case in 2019 with Sergio Romo, who was flipped to the Twins last July.  Since Romo is a free agent again, the Marlins could look into a reunion, if they want an experienced closer to handle the ninth inning rather than Ryne Stanek.  Also picked up in that Rays trade last July, Stanek didn’t pitch well as a Marlin and has continued to struggle when used as anything other than an opener; Stanek has a 2.71 ERA over 83 career innings as an opener and a 4.93 ERA in a more conventional relief capacity.  Given these unusual numbers, one wonders if the Marlins would consider deploying an opener/bulk pitcher strategy for one of their rotation spots, with Stanek kicking off the game before another pitcher handles the majority of the early work.

Another last-place finish is likely awaiting the Marlins in a tough National League East next season, but there is opportunity this winter for the team to get creative in figuring out ways to continue planting the seeds for its next winning team.

Offseason Outlook: Cleveland Indians

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After posting only a 29-30 record through June 2, the Indians played .621 baseball the rest of the way but couldn’t catch up to the Twins in the AL Central, or to the Athletics and Rays in the AL wild card race.  It was a tough result for a team in “win-now” mode, and now the Tribe will have to retool in order to take advantage while their (perhaps rapidly closing?) competitive window is still open.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Carlos Carrasco, SP: $37.25MM through 2022 (includes $3MM buyout of $14MM club option for 2023)
  • Corey Kluber, SP: $17.5MM through 2020 (club option will be exercised; Indians also have $18MM club option for 2021 with $1MM buyout)
  • Carlos Santana, 1B: $17.5MM through 2020 ($17.5MM club option for 2021, $500K buyout)
  • Jose Ramirez, 2B/3B: $17.25MM through 2021 (includes $2MM buyout of $11MM club option for 2022)
  • Brad Hand, RP: $7MM through 2020 ($10MM club option for 2021, $1MM buyout)
  • Roberto Perez, C: $3.5MM through 2020 ($5.5MM club option for 2021, $450K buyout)
  • Oliver Perez, RP: $3MM through 2020

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

Free Agents

Looking at the position players, Cleveland has a very nice core group of Francisco Lindor, Carlos Santana, Jose Ramirez, Oscar Mercado, Roberto Perez, and Franmil Reyes heading into 2020.  Jordan Luplow’s huge numbers against left-handed pitching will merit at least a platoon role in either corner outfield slot, and since the Tribe’s outfield situation is still rather unsettled outside of Mercado in center field, Luplow has a decent shot of winning an everyday job in Spring Training.

It also remains to be seen if Reyes could be an option in right field.  Though Reyes has shown very little fielding aptitude over his young career, the Indians would certainly like to see if Reyes can be a passable option on at least a part-time basis before relegating him to DH-only duty at age 24.  One would also think that the Indians would prefer to keep the designated hitter position open so multiple players could be rotated through DH days in order to keep everyone fresh.

Assuming Reyes will mostly be a DH in 2020, that leaves Luplow, Jake Bauers, Greg Allen, and Bradley Zimmer battling for playing time in the corner outfield slots, with Tyler Naquin entering the mix sometime between mid-April or mid-June as he recovers from a torn ACL.  Prospect Daniel Johnson (acquired from the Nationals in last offseason’s Yan Gomes trade) is also knocking on the door after a big season at Triple-A.

It isn’t a stellar collection of names on paper, but there’s enough promise here that Cleveland might prefer to see what it has rather than pursue an everyday corner outfielder (like, for instance, a re-signed Yasiel Puig).  In particular, the Indians are hoping that Bauers can start to blossom after a disappointing first year in Cleveland, while Zimmer is looking to get his career on track after missing almost all of 2018 and 2019 due to shoulder surgery.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Indians sign a veteran to a minor league deal for extra depth, or perhaps a multi-position utility type to fill holes all over the diamond.

Ramirez has said he wants to remain at one single position in 2020 rather than alternate between second and third base, though he is open to playing either position, giving the Indians some flexibility as they look for infield help.  It doesn’t seem like longtime second baseman Jason Kipnis will be brought back at a lower price tag after the Tribe declined his $16.5MM option, leaving the team with Mike Freeman, Christian Arroyo, and Yu Chang as internal candidates.

Needless to say, the Indians don’t have the payroll space to shop at the very top of the free agent infield market (i.e. Anthony Rendon or old friend Josh Donaldson).  And the presence of top third base prospect Nolan Jones will further preclude any type of truly long-term signing, as Jones could potentially make his MLB debut as early as the second half of the 2020 season.

Players like Howie Kendrick and Eric Sogard are coming off big seasons yet could likely be had on one-year contracts.  Along those same lines, productive veterans like Starlin Castro, Brock Holt, Brian Dozier, or former Clevelander Asdrubal Cabrera could be pursued in free agency.

Depending on how much the Tribe are willing to spend, Mike Moustakas seems like a realistic option.  The Moose has had trouble finding even a multi-year contract the last two offseasons, despite still swinging an above-average bat and slugging 101 homers over the last three seasons.  Since Moustakas is likely to decline his end of an $11MM mutual option with the Brewers for 2020, a modest two-year offer for maybe only a bit more than that $11MM average annual value should get his attention.

Such a signing would essentially just replace Kipnis’ declined salary commitment with Moustakas — certainly an upgrade on the field, though perhaps not a move the cost-conscious Indians are looking to make.  Spending cuts were a big factor in last year’s offseason moves and even into the year, as evidenced by the trade deadline blockbuster with the Reds and Padres that saw Trevor Bauer moved to Cincinnati, and Reyes, Yasiel Puig, young pitching prospect Logan Allen and two other minor leaguers come to Cleveland.

The biggest looming payroll question, of course, is Lindor’s status as both the Tribe’s best player and biggest trade chip.  Lindor is projected to earn $16.7MM via arbitration next season, a raise of $6.15MM from his 2019 salary, and putting him on a likely path to a salary in the $23MM range for 2021.  Indians owner Paul Dolan’s already-infamous comment from last March that Cleveland fans should “enjoy him and then we’ll see what happens” with a potential extension doesn’t overly optimistic about the chances of Lindor staying in a Tribe uniform for the long term.  Dolan’s interview also cited a lack of bonus revenue from postseason games as a reason for last winter’s payroll-lessening measures (the 2018 Indians had just one postseason home game during a three-game sweep at the Astros’ hands in the ALDS), and thus a spending increase doesn’t seem likely coming off a season that saw the Indians miss the playoffs entirely.

Having a superstar like Lindor on the books for roughly $40MM over a two-year span is still a bargain even for a smaller-market team like the Indians, of course, so there’s certainly value in keeping him around.  But given how the Tribe shopped Bauer and Corey Kluber last offseason before eventually moving Bauer at the deadline, it wouldn’t be a shock to see the front office at least discuss Lindor with other teams this winter if for no other reason to see what a rival could potentially offer.  Needless to say, the Indians would want a haul of MLB-ready talent and prospects to move the All-Star shortstop, but if Cleveland finds a team willing to meet that price, a Lindor trade can’t be ruled out. The Dodgers have already come up as a potential fit for Lindor.

A Lindor trade would be the kind of franchise-altering move that could potentially address all of Cleveland’s offseason needs in one fell swoop.  Dealing Kluber could have brought back a similar package last offseason, though the former two-time AL Cy Young Award winner’s trade value isn’t nearly as high in the wake of a season that saw Kluber make just seven starts due to a fractured forearm and then an oblique strain.

Despite this lost year, Kluber’s $17.5MM club option was still exercised by the Indians.  Letting him go for nothing wouldn’t have been too logical, given the chances that Kluber could quite possibly bounce back and look like his old self.  A Kluber trade can’t be entirely ruled out this offseason, just in case an aggressive team is willing to offer something at least in the neighborhood of a trade package befitting an ace-level pitcher, which would leave Cleveland in an interesting conundrum.

Starting pitching, after all, is the Tribe’s biggest strength.  Shane Bieber and Mike Clevinger project as strong front-of-the-rotation arms, with Carlos Carrasco looking to return after battling leukemia last summer, rookies Zach Plesac and Aaron Civale both making strong first impressions in 2019, Adam Plutko and Jefry Rodriguez on hand as further depth options, and Allen approaching big league readiness.  If Kluber and Carrasco both return to form, the Indians will be left with the enviable problem of having almost too much pitching, though that depth will almost surely be necessary given the inevitability of injuries or downturns in performance.

An argument could be made that the Indians could turn one of their younger pitchers into a trade chip, though that seems a little less likely given how controllable young arms are such an especially big asset to a lower-payroll team like Cleveland.  The Tribe might also want that extra depth in the fold given the uncertainty around Kluber and Carrasco heading into 2020.  One pitcher who likely won’t be back is Danny Salazar, as two straight years of virtual inactivity will make him a non-tender candidate.

The starting pitching depth could be translated into extra bullpen help, and since the Indians’ relief corps is already pretty solid, any reliever shopping this winter is more likely to take the form of minor league signings.  There probably isn’t quite enough depth that the Tribe would feel totally secure in trading Brad Hand, and a $7MM salary isn’t onerous for a closer of Hand’s caliber.

Ramirez and Carrasco are the only two Cleveland players on guaranteed contracts for 2021, and several big names (Santana, Kluber, Hand, Perez) are on club options for that season.  Though Lindor and many other key talents will still be in their arbitration or pre-arb years, 2020 stands a pivotal year for this core group given the amount of roster churn that could be on the horizon next winter.

President of baseball operations Chris Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff have shown a lot of creativity in assembling this roster and supplementing it with a strong pipeline of young players, especially pitchers.  Yet the Twins’ emergence in the AL Central has narrowed the Indians’ margin for error rather considerably, and another missed postseason could lead to many more tough decisions.

Organizational Notes: Falvey, Red Sox, Washington, Padres, Royals

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Some front office and dugout items from around the game…

  • Twins chief baseball officer Derek Falvey turned down a request to interview for the top baseball operations job with the Red Sox, La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports.  There wasn’t much public news about Boston’s search prior to the hiring of Chaim Bloom as the new CBO earlier this week, though there had been rumors that the Sox might have interest in Massachusetts native Falvey, and Neal indeed writes that Falvey was “high on their list of candidates.”  Reports from earlier this month suggested that Falvey and the Twins could be close to a contract extension, in the wake of Minnesota’s 101-win season.
  • Braves third base coach Ron Washington was the runner-up in the Padres’ managerial search and also won’t be taking on a bench coach job with San Diego, Dennis Lin of The Athletic reports (subscription required).  There had been speculation that Washington could provide a veteran counsel to first-time manager Jayce Tingler, though it appears that Washington will remain in his current job in Atlanta.
  • Lin’s piece also details the risk GM A.J. Preller is taking in hiring another first-time skipper in what seems like a must-win year for the Padres.  Going into such a pivotal season, however, Preller “preferred to take his chances with a candidate he clearly knows and has long held in high regard.”  Lin also notes that Preller originally tried to hire Tingler away from the Rangers when Preller first became San Diego’s general manager back in 2014.
  • The general consensus has been that the Royals would wait to hire their new manager until John Sherman officially took ownership of the franchise, though GM Dayton Moore tells Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star that this isn’t the case.  “We have been given full autonomy to hire the next manager of the Kansas City Royals when we feel that we are ready and the process is complete.  That could be today, tomorrow or sometime prior to the winter meetings,” Moore said, noting that Sherman has already been involved in the search process.”  Since Moore described the front office as still being “in the middle of a very thorough process,” however, a new managerial hire doesn’t yet seem near.  Royals special advisor and former Cardinals manager Mike Matheny has been widely seen as the favorite for the job, and to date, the only other publicly known candidates are also internal names, though the club has spoken to some external candidates.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Jose Abreu

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It isn’t uncommon for any free agent and team to profess some level of mutual interest as the player approaches the open market.  Still, given the amount of connection between the White Sox and Jose Abreu, it still seems a bit surprising that the first baseman is still slated for free agency here in late October rather than already locked up to a new contract extension.

GM Rick Hahn said back in May that “it’s certainly very likely that [Abreu will] be here” once the Sox emerge from their rebuilding phase.  Abreu himself has expressed his desire to remain on the South Side on multiple occasions, and even said in August that White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf had unofficially promised to keep him in the organization.  So, while the two sides didn’t discuss an extension during the season, it still wouldn’t be a shocker to see Abreu and the Sox reach a new deal while the club still has exclusive negotiating rights (Abreu won’t file for free agency until five days after the end of the World Series).

That said, the lack of known movement towards a new contract could be some due diligence on the team’s part, as they weigh the pros and cons of re-signing a player who will turn 33 in January, and has only been pretty good rather than great over the last two seasons.

After Abreu’s first four MLB seasons resulted in a .301/.359/.524 slash line and 124 homers in 2660 plate appearances, the slugger’s production took a step backwards in 2018 and 2019.  Injuries played a role in Abreu’s relative struggles in 2018, though it’s worth noting that his 2019 wRC+ (117) was only a touch higher than his 2018 production (115 wRC+).

Abreu’s 40.7% hard-hit ball rate in 2019 was the highest of his career, and he finished in the 94th percentile of all hitters in exit velocity.  He also ranked in at least the top 18 percent of hitters in xwOBA, xBA, and xSLG, and had a career-best 12.8% barrel percentage.

On the down side, Abreu has only a .328 on-base percentage over the last two seasons, and his 21.9% strikeout rate was the highest of his career.  He has never been much of a baserunner, limiting his ability to beat out grounders despite the fact that opposing teams rarely deploy a shift against him.  However, opposing pitchers have been feeding Abreu an increasingly large number of sliders over the last two seasons, with increasing success — Abreu had only an 89 wRC+ against sliders in 2018 and a 66 wRC+ against the pitch this year.

Beyond the Statcast numbers, there’s also the simpler lefty/righty split, as the right-handed hitting Abreu has been increasingly less-effective against right-handed pitching.  2019 marked the first time that Abreu was a below-average 99 wRC+) run producer against righties, dropping down from an also so-so 107 wRC+ in 2018.

There are enough question marks here for interested suitors to be wary of signing Abreu to a pricey multi-year pact in free agency.  Despite the fact that Abreu looks like the clear best option (unless the Cubs inexplicably cut Anthony Rizzo free) in a relatively thin market of free agent first basemen, teams have shown that they are increasingly unwilling to pay big money for anything less than an elite production from the first base/DH positions.

Plus, the White Sox hold some significant leverage on Abreu’s market in the form of the qualifying offer.  If Abreu was to reject Chicago’s one-year/$17.8MM offer, a new team would have to give up a draft pick in order to sign him, which could give even more clubs pause.  Issuing the QO results in three potential scenarios, two of which are good for the White Sox — either the draft pick compensation depresses Abreu’s market to the point that they can re-sign him at more of a club-friendly price, or perhaps Abreu simply accepts the qualifying offer and the Sox retain a player they like but not at a multi-year commitment.

The third scenario, of course, would be that the Sox recoup a draft pick via the QO but Abreu signs elsewhere, which would be no small loss given Abreu’s mentorship role on a young White Sox team.  As Hahn himself said, “It’s sort of that more touchy-feely, emotional side of things in terms of knowing the value that he has in this clubhouse and the leadership skills, the softer benefits that he brings to the club, that affects your valuation of a guy like that.”  Perhaps moreso than most teams, the White Sox are a bit more old-school in their approach, and thus are more prone to go out of their way to keep a player who continues the Frank Thomas/Paul Konerko tradition of a franchise cornerstone first baseman, especially as the team looks to finally get back into contention in the AL Central.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Nationals Notes: Morton, Anibal, Suzuki, Trades

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After two huge road wins over the Astros in the first two games of the World Series, the Nationals are headed back to Washington in command of the Fall Classic.  Here’s the latest on the NL champs….

  • Charlie Morton in a Nationals jersey?  It could’ve happened last winter, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that Washington pursued the veteran righty, and the Nats “believe they were the runners-up” to the Rays for Morton’s services.  The Nationals made a offer similar to the Rays’ two-year, $30MM deal with Morton, though the turning point may have been Tampa’s closer proximity to Morton’s offseason home in Bradenton, Florida.  On paper, it would seem like Morton’s decision paved the way for the Nats to ink Anibal Sanchez to a two-year, $19MM deal, though Sherman writes that the Nationals considered signing both Morton and Sanchez, not to mention their blockbuster signing of Patrick Corbin earlier in the offseason.
  • Speaking of Sanchez, the idea of him starting Game 3 of the World Series would’ve seemed far-fetched two years ago, when the veteran righty’s career seemed to be on thin ice after struggling during the last three seasons of his five-year, $80MM contract with the Tigers.  Since then, however, Sanchez has gotten back on track in a major way, as MLB.com’s Mike Petriello notes that no pitcher has a lower percentage of hard-hit balls over the last two seasons than Sanchez.  Reasons for the turn-around could include Sanchez’s increased prep work between starts, or a change in pitch usage, as the veteran hurler has greatly increased the use of his cutter and mostly abandoned his slider, formerly one of his primary offerings.
  • Sanchez also cited his relationship with catcher Kurt Suzuki as a big factor in his improved performance with both the Braves and Nationals, another example of how Suzuki has himself enjoyed something of a late-career renaissance.  As The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (subscription required) writes, Suzuki considered retiring following the 2016 season, and was hesitant about leaving his family in California to sign a one-year contract and play across the country with the Braves.  His wife convinced him to take the deal, however, and achieve Suzuki’s goal of ten full seasons of MLB service.  That clock is now running at well over 12 seasons and counting, as Suzuki has enjoyed three of his best seasons at the plate in 2017-19, and is now perhaps closing in on his first World Series ring.
  • Finally winning a championship would be the ultimate payoff to years of aggressive moves from GM Mike Rizzo and the Nationals’ front office, Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post writes.  Prospects such as Lucas Giolito, Jesus Luzardo, and Sheldon Neuse were dealt to the White Sox and Athletics in trades that brought the likes of Adam Eaton and Sean Doolittle to Washington, and the Nationals are comfortable seeing their former prospects go on to MLB stardom for other teams.  “It’s difficult to win consistently and have a good farm system because you use your prospect capital to acquire major league players. But that’s been our plan the whole time,” Rizzo said.  It helps that the Nats have been hung onto some prospects (i.e. Anthony Rendon, Juan Soto, Stephen Strasburg) who have turned into major homegrown stars, while also scoring in other trades that brought other big names like Trea Turner into the organization as youngsters.

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