MLBTR Poll: Should The Brewers Trade Willy Adames?
The 2023 offseason has long had the look of one that could spell significant change for the Brewers. Between manager Craig Counsell interviewing with other clubs as he prepares to potentially depart from the organization and a the news that right-handed ace Brandon Woodruff will miss the majority of 2024 due to shoulder surgery, the winds of change seem to be blowing through Milwaukee more strongly than ever before.
Woodruff is projected by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz to make $11.6MM in his final trip through arbitration this offseason, Corbin Burnes and Willy Adames join him as high-dollar arbitration players entering their final season of team control. Burnes is projected for a $15.1MM payday, while Adames projects for a $12.4MM salary in 2024. Taken together, the three players project for a whopping $39.1MM. Those three projected salaries and the $26MM owed to Christian Yelich next season combine to make up more than half of the club’s estimated $126MM payroll (courtesy of RosterResource) in 2023.
Beyond those commitments, the club has a $9.5MM decision to make on Mark Canha‘s club option and arbitration raises for the likes of Adrian Houser and Devin Williams, not to mention smaller guaranteed contracts for the likes of Freddy Peralta and Aaron Ashby. Beyond that, the club will need to add to a rotation that figures to enter the 2024 campaign with only Burnes, Peralta, and Houser locked in as starters, replace Victor Caratini as a complement to William Contreras behind the plate, and find ways to improve an offense that finished the season with a wRC+ of just 92, the seventh worst figure in the majors.
With a laundry list of needs and limited payroll space, it’s long been speculated that Milwaukee could look to deal Burnes ahead of his impending free agency in 2024, allowing them to recoup value for their ace pitcher while also saving $15MM or more to put towards other additions. As sensible as that plan may have been, Woodruff’s injury complicates things for the Brewers. After all, the idea of trading Burnes hinges in part on the fact that Woodruff and Peralta would be a capable front-of-the-rotation duo that could help the club absorb the loss of Burnes. With Woodruff out for at least the first half of 2024 and perhaps even longer, the club’s Opening Day rotation would have only Peralta and Houser penciled into it if Burnes were traded.
Given the importance of Burnes to the club’s competitive hopes for 2024, it’s become more sensible than ever for the Brewers to consider dealing their shortstop as a way to open up budget space while also bringing in pieces who could help fill out the major league club for 2024 and beyond. Adames would surely garner plenty of interest on the trade market. Though the league has seen plenty of quality shortstops hit free agency in recent winters, that’s changing this winter: the class is highlighted by the likes of Amed Rosario, Whit Merrifield, and Gio Urshela. Despite the dearth of quality options, plenty of teams could be in the market for infield help such as the Mariners, Marlins, Red Sox, Dodgers, and Blue Jays. Adames’s mix of strong defense and average-or-better offense should make him an attractive trade candidate and perhaps the best player available at his position, even after a down campaign that saw Adames slash just .217/.310/.407 with a career-worst wRC+ of 94.
Of course, there’s potential pitfalls in such an approach as well. The club seems likely to stick with Brice Turang up the middle in 2024, with the likes of Andruw Monasterio, Abraham Toro, Jahmai Jones and Owen Miller as possible depth pieces. That group would surely need at least one additional player to replace Adames. The Brewers could look again to the trade market to replace Adames with a younger infielder, or simply move Turang to shortstop while signing a player like Urshela or Merrifield who could potentially provide the club with an offensive boost.
Given those pitfalls, a trade of Adames would likely require a return package that fills holes in other areas for the Brewers. If Milwaukee were able to land rotation help or a potential infield regular in exchange for Adames, a trade would be an excellent way for the club to extend its competitive window beyond the 2024 season without taking too significant a step back in the short-term. That being said, replacing the production of Adames would require savvy moves from a Brewers front office that has struggled to get offense from the rest of its infield in recent years.
What do MLBTR readers think the best path forward is for the Brewers? Should they retain Adames despite the holes in the roster and his impending free agency after 2024? Or should they risk a significant step back on the infield in 2024 in order to shore up the roster in other areas and improve the club’s standing for 2025 and beyond? Have your say in the poll below:
(poll link for app users)
Should the Brewers trade Willy Adames this offseason?
-
Yes, they should move Adames this offseason. 61% (2,786)
-
No, they should retain Adames headed into 2024. 39% (1,780)
Total votes: 4,566
Looking For A Match In An Alex Verdugo Trade
Red Sox outfielder Alex Verdugo saw his name floated around the trade deadline as a potential trade candidate, and though no trade ultimately came together, it’s worth noting that the club did field interest from clubs including both the Yankees and Astros regarding Verdugo at the deadline. With new chief baseball officer Craig Breslow now in place, the club’s focus figures to turn toward the offseason proper, and Verdugo once again makes sense as a trade candidate.
After all, the club has plenty of quality outfield options. Masataka Yoshida is entrenched in left field after a strong first stateside campaign, while the likes of Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, and Ceddanne Rafaela all represent solid young outfield options that the Red Sox have previously expressed belief in. Of that quartet, only Rafaela bats right-handed, so Verdugo’s presence does little to balance out the club’s heavily left-handed outfield mix. With just one year of team control remaining before Verdugo hits free agency, the 27-year-old sticks out as a prime trade candidate for a Boston club looking to pull itself back into contention after back-to-back last place finishes in the AL East.
That’s not to say Verdugo isn’t a quality player in his own right, of course. He’s been a roughly league average bat in each of the past three seasons, slashing .278/.334/.417 with a wRC+ of 102 since the start of the 2021 campaign. He paired that average offensive with above-average defense in right field this year, as he posted a solid +1 Outs Above Average alongside a more impressive +9 Defensive Runs Saved. Only Fernando Tatis Jr. had a higher DRS in right field this year, per Fielding Bible.
The lackluster free agent market for position players further bolsters Verdugo’s potential trade candidacy. While the top of the market features Cody Bellinger, who is coming off his best season since his 2019 MVP campaign, the rest of the market pales in comparison with the likes of Teoscar Hernandez, Tommy Pham, and Jorge Soler among the group’s highlights. For teams in need of short-term outfield help, a one-year commitment to Verdugo (who MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects to make $9.2MM in his final trip through arbitration) could make more sense than targeting one of those mid-tier free agents who could potentially be in search of a multi-year deal.
Teams that are unlikely to contend in 2023 are easy to eliminate from this exercise, as they wouldn’t particularly stand to benefit from a one-year deal with Verdugo. That would seem to eliminate the A’s, Nationals, Rockies, Royals, and White Sox from the list of potential teams. Teams without a significant need for a corner outfield bat are also fairly easy to eliminate. The Angels, Brewers, Cardinals, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Giants, Orioles, Rangers, Rays, Reds, Tigers, and Twins all appear to be fairly set in the outfield corners. That still leaves 12 teams that could potentially have interest in Verdugo’s services, however. Let’s take a look at how they match up…
Best Fits:
- Astros: Houston was one of the teams linked to the Red Sox at the trade deadline, and it’s easy to see why given the club’s desire to acquire a left-handed outfielder to complement Jake Meyers and Chas McCormick, given the uncertain health situation of veteran Michael Brantley at the time. It stands to reason that the club’s interest in Verdugo would continue into this offseason, with Brantley set to hit free agency and leave an opening in the club’s left field mix. Verdugo would provide quality defense in left field and complement the right-handed bats of McCormick and Meyers alongside fellow lefty Kyle Tucker, who figures to play every day in right.
- Braves: The Braves hold a $9MM option on the services of Eddie Rosario for the 2024 season, and while Rosario bounced back from a brutal 2022 campaign to post league average offensive numbers this year, Verdugo would be a more consistent player with stronger defense at roughly the same financial cost. The clear upgrade Verdugo provides for the Braves over their current left field mix makes Atlanta a strong potential landing spot for Verdugo, who would join Michael Harris II and Ronald Acuna Jr. in the outfield while allowing Marcell Ozuna to remain as the club’s regular DH.
- Dodgers: As unusual as it would be for the Dodgers to trade for Verdugo just four seasons after including him in the package that brought Mookie Betts from Boston to LA, Verdugo would be an excellent fit for the Dodgers, who are set to lose lefty corner bats David Peralta and Jason Heyward to free agency this offseason. Though a healthy season from Gavin Lux would allow Betts to patrol right field on a regular basis again in 2024 after spending much of 2023 on the infield dirt, the club still figures to be in need of an outfield regular alongside Betts and James Outman. Additionally, Verdugo’s left-handed bat would complement the right-handed bat of Chris Taylor, who figures to play a utility role in both the infield and outfield next season.
- Mariners: After acquiring a one-year stopgap in right field last offseason when they landed Teoscar Hernandez in a trade with the Blue Jays, Seattle figures to once again be in need of corner outfield help this offseason. While Julio Rodriguez has locked down center field and Jarred Kelenic showed enough positive signs this year to warrant a regular role in left, the Mariners’ options beyond that duo are few and far between, with the likes of Cade Marlowe, Sam Haggerty and Taylor Trammell among their best choices. Verdugo, much like Hernandez this season, would provide the club with a quality regular who can lock down a corner spot and allow the Mariners to focus on other areas this offseason.
- Yankees: As rare as trades between the longtime rivals once were, they’ve become more common in recent years, including a deal that sent Greg Allen to New York earlier this year and a trade that moved Adam Ottavino to Boston back in 2021. While a Verdugo deal would be more significant than either of those two trades, the Yankees are in clear need of both left-handed bats to balance their lineup and could use two outfield bats to pair with Aaron Judge, assuming the club doesn’t want to count on Giancarlo Stanton as an everyday outfielder. Verdugo would fill both of those needs without adding another long-term contract to a payroll in New York that features five guaranteed contracts that extend through 2026 or longer.
Next Tier Down:
- Guardians: The Guardians are well-established as a team in need of outfield help. Though Steven Kwan figures to remain entrenched in left field and Myles Straw is under contract in center long term, Ramon Laureano is a non-tender or trade candidate in right field and Straw could easily be pushed into a fourth outfielder role if Cleveland acquired an outfielder better suited to an everyday role. Verdugo would fit the club’s lineup nicely, taking over for Laureano in right field and offer a reliable bat to an outfield group that posted the second-worst wRC+ in the majors last year, 16% worse than league average. Unfortunately, the fit is less clean than it may appear, as Verdugo would immediately become the third highest-paid player on the club’s roster behind only Jose Ramirez and Shane Bieber. Given the Guardians typically run payrolls at or near the bottom of the league, the club may prefer to look for lower-cost fliers in free agency to boost their outfield production rather than spend both financial and prospect capital to bring in Verdugo.
- Marlins: Miami will see one of its best bats in Jorge Soler depart for free agency this offseason, leaving a clear hole in the lineup. While Soler was primarily used as a DH, the addition of Verdugo in the outfield would allow the club to platoon Bryan De La Cruz and Jesus Sanchez, opening up the DH spot for an additional bat to improve a lackluster Marlins offense. That being said, given the presence of De La Cruz, Sanchez, and Avisail Garcia on the roster, Miami might be better served focusing on upgrading at shortstop, where the club currently projects to utilize Jon Berti as an everyday option.
- Padres: The outfield in San Diego is currently well-stocked, with superstars Juan Soto and Fernando Tatis Jr. in the corners and Trent Grisham getting the lion’s share of playing time in center. With that being said, rumors have already begun to percolate this offseason that the Padres could look to move Soto in trade this offseason in hopes of cutting payroll. If the club does move on from Soto, that would create a hole in left field that Verdugo could slide into nicely. Verdugo projects to make almost $24MM less than Soto in 2024, and while his bat is not nearly as valuable as Soto’s he provides significantly more defensive value and is a clearly capable everyday player in left, which the Padres would lack without Soto on the team. Of course, if the team doesn’t move on from Soto this offseason, San Diego would no longer be a fit for Verdugo’s services.
Longer Shots:
- Blue Jays: With Kevin Kiermaier set to depart for free agency this offseason, the Blue Jays will be in need of an outfield bat to pair with George Springer and Daulton Varsho, even as the likes of Spencer Horwitz and Ernie Clement provide reasonable depth options. While Verdugo could certainly fill that role, Toronto may not want to commit to Varsho as the club’s regular center fielder, seeing as the 26-year-old has never started more than 50 games at the position in a season during his career. What’s more, after a disappointing offensive season from the club, it’s reasonable to think the Blue Jays may prefer to add a bat with a stronger offensive profile than Verdugo, who’s 112 wRC+ in 106 games with the Dodgers during the 2019 season represents his best full season offensively.
- Mets: After parting with Mark Canha and Tommy Pham at the trade deadline, the Mets have a clear opening in left field where Verdugo would represent a clear improvement over the club’s incumbent options. That being said, the rumors have indicated that the club may look to take a bit of a step back in 2024 after a difficult 2023 campaign, and the club has plenty of young players who could feasibly take a step forward with regular playing time in 2024 including Bretty Baty, Ronny Mauricio, and Mark Vientos. An opening in the outfield would allow the Mets to provide more playing time to those players, whether by directly playing them in left or by moving multi-positional veteran Jeff McNeil to left, thereby opening up time on the infield dirt.
- Phillies: Whether the Phillies look to add a first baseman or outfielder this offseason could hinge on where Bryce Harper hopes to play in 2024, but in the event Harper spends next season at first base, Verdugo could provide the club with a quality defensive outfielder who would provide more certainty than relying on the likes of Johan Rojas and Cristian Pache to play alongside Brandon Marsh and Nick Castellanos. That being said, Verdugo’s lefty bat makes for an imperfect fit in a Philadelphia lineup that already features Harper, Marsh, Kyle Schwarber, and Bryson Stott, further complicating Verdugo’s fit with the Phillies.
- Pirates: While the Pirates lack an obvious starter in the outfield alongside Bryan Reynolds and Jack Suwinski, the club figures to continue attempting to convert catcher Henry Davis to the outfield in 2024, likely filling the club’s outfield mix at least in the early part of the season. What’s more, the annual low budgets in Pittsburgh make a deal for Verdugo seem even more unlikely, as the club would presumably look to reunite with veteran outfielder and franchise legend Andrew McCutchen, who is set to hit free agency this offseason, if they were to dedicate resources to their outfield mix.
NL East Notes: Harper, Braves, Mets
One of the biggest questions facing the Phillies this offseason focuses on what position superstar slugger Bryce Harper will play in 2024. The 2024 campaign figures to be Harper’s first full campaign in the field since 2021, as Harper battled a partially torn UCL in 2022 before undergoing Tommy John surgery. That limited Harper to playing DH primarily in both 2022 and 2023, though Harper was able to move to first base late in the 2023 season, filling a hole left by Rhys Hoskins‘s ACL injury during spring training. A decision on Harper’s position next year is expected to come in the near future, as president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski indicated to reporters (including Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer) that Harper’s preferred position will be taken into consideration when building the team’s 2024 roster.
With Harper at first base in recent months, the Phillies have been able to use Kyle Schwarber at DH while playing both Brandon Marsh and Johan Rojas in the outfield to improve the club’s outfield defense. If Harper were to return to his native right field in 2024, that would seemingly leave Nick Castellanos to move over to left field, with Marsh and Rojas platooning in center. Speculatively speaking, that could open the door for the club to resign Hoskins in free agency or look into other potential first base bats like Brandon Belt and Jeimer Candelario. On the other hand, if Harper plays first base primarily next season, the club could look to add an additional outfielder such as Teoscar Hernandez, Adam Duvall, or Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to deepen their outfield group.
More from around the NL East…
- David O’Brien of The Athletic recently discussed the future of the Braves rotation, which in part hinges upon the decisions made regarding veteran righty Charlie Morton. It’s as of yet unclear if the 40-year-old hurler intends to continue playing in 2024, and separately it’s an open question whether or not the Braves will exercise a $20MM club option for his services in 2024 or allow him to hit the open market. With Kyle Wright out of commission until 2025 due to shoulder surgery, parting ways with Morton would leave only Spencer Strider, Max Fried, and Bryce Elder locked into rotation spots headed into the 2024 season. O’Brien makes it clear that righty AJ Smith-Shawver is part of the club’s future plans in some capacity, noting the Braves informed teams that Smith-Shawver was “all but untouchable.” Still, even if the club plans to utilizie Elder and Smith-Shawver at the back of the rotation in 2024, they would likely need to replace Morton externally with a veteran arm rather than relying on youngsters like Darius Vines, Dylan Dodd, and Jared Shuster, all of whom may be better suited for depth roles.
- SNY’s Danny Abriano recently discussed the options the Mets have at their disposal at third base for the 2024 season. While the third base market features interesting names such as Candelario and top option Matt Chapman, Abriano suggests that the club should stick to its internal options at the hot corner for the 2024 campaign. Brett Baty and Ronny Mauricio would appear to be the club’s top contenders for the everyday third base job internally. Baty struggled badly with a .212/.275/.323 slash line in 389 trips to the plate in the majors this year, though his pedigree as a consensus top-30 prospect and his phenomenal minor league numbers suggest the 23-year-old could take the next step in 2024. Mauricio, meanwhile, also struggled at the plate (.248/.296/.347 in 108 plate appearances) and is widely regarded as having a lower offensive ceiling than Baty, but brings quality defense and baserunning to the table when compared to Baty’s defensive miscues at the position. Another factor for the Mets could be top infield prospect Luisangel Acuna, who Abriano suggests will eventually take over second base, which could free up Jeff McNeil to move to third if Baty and Mauricio both struggle in the early parts of the 2024 season.
Quick Hits: Olympics, Garcia, White Sox
MLB Commissioner Rob Manfred spoke to reporters ahead of the beginning of the World Series yesterday about a variety of topics. One point of discussion, as relayed by Evan Drellich of The Athletic, was the potential for major league players to participate in the 2028 Summer Olympics, which will take place in Los Angeles. Manfred referenced a push by Casey Wasserman, who acts as CEO of the Wasserman agency and chairman of the LA 2028 organization, making a push to include baseball in the Summer Olympics, which Manfred expressed his support for.
That said, while Manfred noted that the league “will continue to listen as to whether there’s some arrangement that could be worked out… to make it the best possible tournament,” he also cautioned that there are “challenges” that come with staging a tournament like the Olympics in the middle of the major league season, as the 2028 Olympics would be. Olympic baseball was opened to professional players in 2000, but MLB has blocked its players from participating in the games due to its overlap with the big league season, leading to rosters primarily filled by international and minor league players.
Many of the world’s best players not participating led to baseball being dropped from the games entirely in 2012, 2016, and 2024, though that could change if the league and the International Olympic Committee can work out a deal for major league players to participate in the games. It’s unclear how feasible such a deal could be, however, as Manfred explicitly clarified that even as he hopes to support the effort to bring baseball back to the Olympics, he “[is] not saying one word” about allowing big leaguers to partake in the tournament, at least at this point.
More notes from around the league…
- Rangers outfielder Adolis Garcia continued his postseason tear last night against the Diamondbacks, hitting a walk-off home run in the bottom of the 11th inning to win the game for Texas. Garcia’s heroics last night add to what has been an incredible postseason for the 30-year-old. Garcia has now slugged six homers total across five consecutive games with a long ball, bringing the ALCS MVP’s postseason slash line to an incredible .357/.400/.804 in 60 trips to the plate this October. Garcia, of course, was acquired from the Cardinals back in 2019 in exchange for cash considerations. Former Rangers president of baseball operations Jon Daniels spoke with Rob Bradford on the Baseball Isn’t Boring podcast recently about acquiring Garcia, who noted that Garcia was only available to the club thanks to St. Louis’s considerable outfield depth at the time, credited assistant GM of player development and international scouting Ross Fenstermaker as a key person who vouched for Garcia’s talent within the organization. The acquisition has, of course, worked out wonderfully for Texas, who have Garcia under team control through the end of the 2026 campaign.
- MLB.com’s Scott Merkin recently looked at the questions facing the White Sox this offseason, including the futures of Luis Robert Jr. and Tim Anderson. Merkin, who indicates the White Sox view the coming offseason as more of a short-term “retool” than a full-scale “rebuild,” suggests that Robert is “as close to untouchable” as any player on the roster this offseason in trade discussions. If Chicago indeed intends to avoid a rebuild, that’s sensible, given Robert’s immense talent and four remaining seasons of team control. Perhaps more surprisingly, Merkin suggests that the White Sox “probably aren’t giving up Anderson for nothing” when discussing the club’s upcoming team option decision on his services for 2024. In a poll earlier this month, 60% of MLBTR readers responded that the White Sox should decline Anderson’s option, though Merkin seems to suggest the club either trading him or simply retaining him headed into 2024 is the more likely outcome.
Rob Manfred Discusses Eppler Investigation, Potential Rules Changes
Rob Manfred spoke to reporters (including Evan Drellich of The Athletic) ahead of the World Series opener this evening. The conversation covered an array of topics regarding the game, including the ongoing investigation into former Mets GM Billy Eppler and potential future rule changes.
Manfred told reporters that the investigation into Eppler, which looks into allegations of improper injured list use, should be completed before the end of the calendar year. While Manfred makes clear the league is not currently aware of a more widespread issue beyond the Mets, he does note that he directed the league’s department of investigations to “figure out whether we have a bigger problem” regarding misuse of the injured list. While Manfred notes that the issue with the Mets isn’t “quite the same” as other issues the league has investigated that, in his words, “arguably affect the integrity of the game,” he still considers the alleged offense by the Mets to be one of significance, adding that the investigation is a high priority for the league.
Of course, so-called “phantom IL” stints have been commonplace in the league for decades, and have occurred on every team at one point or another, with some players even openly admitting that they aren’t actually injured while on the shelf. More nebulous diagnoses such as soreness or fatigue can be used by a club to offer a struggling player a physical and mental reset while clearing their roster spot for a period of time. While the practice is technically illegal, it’s not currently clear what specific injured list transactions are at issue that spurred the league to investigate Eppler and the Mets specifically for the relatively widespread practice.
Manfred also spoke about potential rule changes the league could see in the future. The 2023 season saw one of the more aggressive changes to the league’s rule set in recent years, as the league implemented a pitch clock, larger bases, and shift restrictions ahead of the campaign. Those changes have generally been well-received after their first season in use, and it appears the league could look to continue making rule adjustments. Specifically, Manfred acknowledged recent discourse around the league’s playoff format— which has seen six of the eight teams that secured a first-round bye over the last three seasons fail to win a series— has prompted the commissioner’s office to “discuss” possible changes, though he notes that he’s a fan of the playoffs as currently designed.
“My own view on this is that our teams play really hard all year long to get into the playoffs,” Manfred said, “But one of the greatest things about the playoffs in baseball is, anybody can win. …I don’t think what happened this year is all that out of line with history.”
Another change Manfred discussed was potentially lowering the maximum allowable number of pitchers on the active roster to 12. He noted that the 13 pitcher limit currently in place hasn’t “had the desired effect” of encouraging teams to push their starting pitchers to stay in the game longer. While the eight teams that saw their starting pitchers throw less than 800 innings this season is a noticeable drop from 12 in 2021, the last season before the current limit was introduced, it’s actually one more than in 2022 and the same number as 2019. Prior to 2019, only the 2018 Rays and the 2012 Rockies had gotten less than 800 innings out of their starting pitchers in a season this century.
Such a change, however, would not be on the table for the 2024 season. Manfred didn’t discuss potential rules changes for the 2024 season, though he did note that any changes would be on a smaller scale after the significant rules adjustments the sport experienced in 2023.
AL Central Notes: Counsell, Twins, Rogers
The Guardians have secured permission to interview Brewers manager Craig Counsell, per Paul Hoynes of Cleveland.com. Cleveland had previously been reported as requesting permission from Milwaukee to interview Counsell earlier this week. While it was unclear if the Brewers would grant that permission, it’s hardly a surprise that they did so after recently offering the Mets the same courtesy. Counsell, 53, is among the most well-respected managers in the game after piloting the Brewers to a 707-625 record during his nine-year tenure that’s included five postseason appearances in the past six seasons.
Just as Counsell has other suitors beyond Cleveland in Milwaukee and Queens, the Guardians also have options outside of Counsell as they look to replace Terry Francona in the dugout. Cubs bench coach Andy Green recently interviewed for the position, and Dodgers first base coach Clayton McCullough, Yankees bench coach Carlos Mendoza, and Giants bullpen/catching coach Craig Albernaz have all also met with the Guardians regarding their managerial vacancy. Of that group, only Green has past experience as a big league manager aside from Counsell. While Counsell reportedly enters free agency hoping to move the ball forward for future managers around the game in terms of salary, that seems unlikely to preclude the Guardians from making a run at Counsell’s services, given Francona was the highest paid manager in the game this season, with Jon Heyman of the New York Post reporting that Francona made $4.5MM in 2023.
More from around the AL Central…
- Despite not being part of the club’s starting lineup during their postseason run, veteran catcher Christian Vazquez figures to remain a significant part of the Twins in 2024, per Bobby Nightengale of the Star Tribune. Per Nightengale, the team plans to offer roughly equal playing time to Vazquez and fellow catcher Ryan Jeffers behind the plate next year. Vazquez just wrapped up the first season of his three-year, $30MM deal with the club and suffered the worst offensive season of his career with a .223/.280/.318 slash line across 355 plate appearances. By contrast, Jeffers had a breakout season, slashing .276/.369/.490 in 335 trips to the plate. While Jeffers is clearly the stronger offensive option, Vazquez is regarded as an elite defensive catcher and Jeffers could feasibly see additional playing time at DH next year as a way to keep his bat in the lineup on days Vazquez is behind the plate.
- The Tigers had another difficult season in 2023, posting a 78-84 record and finishing 9 games out of a postseason spot. That being said, one significant bright spot for the club this year was catcher Jake Rogers, who Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press indicates has already secured his role as the club’s top option behind the plate for 2024. Rogers improved on defense in 2023 to post framing numbers in line with other quality regulars at the position like Adley Rutschman and Alejandro Kirk while also slashing a respectable .221/.286/.444 with 21 home runs in just 365 trips to the plate. Among catchers with at least 300 plate appearances in the majors this year, Rogers’s 97 wRC+ ties him with Mets rookie Francisco Alvarez for the 14th-best figure in the majors.
AL West Notes: A’s, Scherzer, Angels
MLBPA executive director Tony Clark spoke to reporters (including Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times) today prior to Game 1 of the World Series regarding the Athletics and their bid to relocate from Oakland to Las Vegas. With a relocation vote scheduled for the owner’s meetings in November, the process is moving forward with few roadblocks, though one major question still remains: where will the A’s play from 2025-27, after their lease at the Colliseum expires but before their ballpark is completed, which is expected in time for Opening Day 2028?
Any temporary stadium situation would require MLBPA approval, and Clark notes that there’s an “ongoing dialogue” between the players’ union and the league regarding an interim stadium, though he also noted nothing has been decided on that front. Among the ideas that have been floated publicly are the A’s playing in the ballpark of their Triple-A affiliate, the Las Vegas Aviators; the A’s sharing Oracle Park with the Giants; and an extension of the club’s lease in the Colliseum, though the latter seems particularly unlikely.
More from around the AL West…
- Rangers ace Max Scherzer came off the injured list for the ALCS after missing more than a month with a teres major strain. In two appearances during the series, the veteran righty struggled, allowing seven runs in 6 2/3 innings of work. While it’s not exactly surprising for a pitcher to struggle after a layoff of over a month, Newsday’s David Lennon relays another potential explanation for Scherzer’s struggles during the series. Scherzer told reporters (including Lennon) yesterday that he was hampered by a cut on his thumb near the nail during both of his starts during the series. Scherzer added that he doesn’t expect the ailment to be an issue during the World Series. Though starters haven’t been announced beyond Game 2, Scherzer figures to line up for Game 3 of the World Series following Nathan Eovaldi and Jordan Montgomery.
- The Angels have parted ways with minor league pitching coordinator Buddy Carlyle, per Sam Blum of The Athletic. Carlyle, a right-hander who pitched in the majors in parts of nine seasons spanning 1999 to 2015, played for five major league clubs in addition to stints in the NPB and KBO. After retiring in 2015, Carlyle was hired by the Braves as a coaching assistant in charge of replay review before moving on to act as pitching coach for the Anaheim’s Double-A affiliate in Mobile. He moved with the team to the Rocket City Trash Pandas in his role as pitching coach before eventually being promoted to his most recent role. Carlyle’s departure makes for another coaching position the Angels will have to fill this offseason, with replacing recently-fired manager Phil Nevin standing as chief among those.
Cubs Reportedly Interested In Juan Soto
The Cubs are reportedly among the teams that have interest in dealing for Padres superstar Juan Soto this offseason, per Bruce Levine of 670 The Score, who reports that Chicago will be “involved” in Soto’s market. It’s the second report this week to suggest a potential trade partner for the Padres in a Soto deal, as earlier reporting indicated that the Yankees have checked in with the Padres regarding Soto’s availability.
Reports have indicated that the Padres will look to cut payroll this offseason by as much as $50MM. With key pieces of the club’s pitching staff like Blake Snell, Josh Hader, and Seth Lugo likely ticketed for free agency this winter, that leaves the club minimal room to either re-sign or replace those arms as they look to bounce back from a difficult 2023 campaign that saw them miss the postseason with an 82-80 record. A trade of Soto, who MLBTR’s Matt Swartz projects to receive $33MM in his final trip through arbitration this offseason, would free up plenty of budget space for the Padres this offseason while also providing an influx of young talent that could impact the club in 2024 and beyond.
Meanwhile, the Cubs are coming off a relatively surprising season that saw them exceed expectations. Rather than the expected sell-off that would have seen them deal Marcus Stroman and Cody Bellinger, the Cubs picked up third baseman Jeimer Candelario and reliever Jose Cuas at the trade deadline and entered September in good shape to return to the postseason in a full campaign for the first time since 2018. Unfortunately, the club collapsed down the stretch with a 7-15 record over their final 22 games. Ultimately, the club finished with an 83-79 record, just one game back of the Diamondbacks and Marlins in the NL Wild Card race.
With Bellinger set to hit free agency this offseason, replacing the outfielders 134 wRC+ and 4.1 fWAR figures to be a key focus of the offseason in Chicago. Soto, who slashed .275/.410/.519 with a 155 wRC+ and 5.5 fWAR in characteristically excellent 2023 campaign, would certainly fill the gap in the club’s offense left by Bellinger’s impending departure. That being said, Soto’s fit in Chicago is imperfect. Most notably, the club has both Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki locked up to patrol the outfield corners through the 2026 campaign, complicating Soto’s positional fit on the team. While Happ has plenty of experience in center field, he made no appearances at the position in 2023 and played just 12 innings there in 2022; his last season as the club’s regular center fielder was in 2020, his age-25 campaign.
Of course, that’s to say nothing of Chicago’s outfield-heavy crop of prospect talent residing in the upper minors, headlined by top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong and his elite center field defense. Both Crow-Armstrong and Alexander Canario made their big league debuts this September, while Owen Caissie, Kevin Alcantara, and Brennen Davis are also limited to the outfield. Of course, that logjam could be cleared by including one or more of the aforementioned prospects in the return package for Soto, though even in that case the Cubs would likely be forced to play Soto or Happ primarily at DH in 2023 upon the arrival of Crow-Armstrong.
Another potentially complicating factor for the Cubs is Soto’s pending free agency. With Soto set to hit the open market following the 2024 season and the Cubs still building up toward contention, it’s fair to wonder if a club better situated for a World Series run in 2024 would be more aggressive in looking to acquire Soto than the Cubs. Although an acquiring club could certainly look to extend Soto to a long-term deal after dealing for him, agent Scott Boras is known for encouraging his clients to establish their value on the open market and Soto previously rejected a $440MM extension offer from the Nationals earlier in his career.
The Cubs have rarely shown an appetite for megadeals at that level, as evidenced by last offseason’s signing of Dansby Swanson to a seven-year, $177MM deal in lieu of a pursuit of another top shortstop like Trea Turner or Xander Bogaerts, both of whom signed commitments spanning a decade or longer. That said, it’s worth noting that Soto is far younger than the typical free agent. Swanson’s current deal in Chicago runs through his age-35 season; Soto could sign a 10-year deal next offseason and celebrate his 36th birthday during October of the final year of that contract.
Levine goes on to discuss a potential return package for Soto if the Padres and Cubs were to agree on a trade. He notes that utility player Christopher Morel has garnered trade interest from multiple clubs, and that sources indicated the Padres are particularly high on him. Morel hit well during his sophomore campaign in 2023, slashing .247/.313/.508 with 26 home runs. Morel primarily served as Chicago’s DH this season, though he logged time at all three outfield spots, second base, third base, and shortstop throughout the season. While Morel has proven playable all around the diamond, he’s appeared to be a below-average fielder at most of those positions. His best defensive position appears to be second base, though in Chicago he’s blocked at the keystone by 2023 Gold Glove finalist Nico Hoerner, who’s under contract through 2026. Between Morel’s bat, versatility, and pre-arbitration status, he figures to be a sought-after piece in trade discussions with the Cubs this offseason even in spite of his defensive shortcomings.
MLBTR Poll: Who Will Win The World Series?
The grand finale of the 2023 season is set to begin this evening, as the NL champion Diamondbacks head to Arlington to take on the AL champion Rangers for the first game of this year’s World Series.
Both teams have faced plenty of adversity en route to creating the third ever World Series matchup featuring two Wild Card teams, and they each did so via rather similar paths. After all, both clubs led their division for much of the first half of the season before losing their grip on the role in the second half and settling for a Wild Card spot. Since then, they both swept through the Wild Card series before delivering an additional sweep against a 100-win team in the Division Series. In the Championship Series, both teams were trailing after Game 5 but managed to come back with wins in both Game 6 and Game 7 to win their first pennant in over a decade.
It’s all the more impressive given that neither Texas nor Arizona were expected to be playoff contenders at the beginning of the season: the playoff odds over at Fangraphs gave the Rangers just a 37.7% chance to make the postseason with a 2% chance of a World Series run, while the Diamondbacks were afforded just 15.3% playoff odds and a 0.5% chance to make the World Series, a bottom-ten figure in the majors. What’s more, both clubs lost 100 games just two seasons ago, during the 2021 campaign.
That’s not to say these clubs are the same, of course. Despite their lack of recent postseason history, the Rangers look in many ways like the prototypical October team. They sport a fantastic front three for their starting rotation of Nathan Eovaldi (2.42 ERA in four playoff appearances, 3.63 regular season ERA), Jordan Montgomery (2.16 ERA in five playoff appearances, 2.79 regular season ERA with Texas), and veteran ace Max Scherzer, who struggled in two ALCS starts coming back from a teres major strain but posted a 3.20 ERA during his time with the Rangers during the regular season.
If Scherzer has shaken off the rust enough to look like himself during the World Series, that’s a frightening three-headed monster for Arizona to have to overcome in this series. On the positional side, meanwhile, the Rangers feature a frightening lineup including stars Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, rookies Josh Jung and Evan Carter, and power-hitting sluggers Adolis Garcia and Mitch Garver. As strong as the lineup and rotation in Arlington may be, the club’s bullpen has been its Achilles’ heel this postseason as key relief arms like Jose Leclerc (4.35 postseason ERA) and Will Smith (9.00 postseason ERA) have struggled badly, though Cody Bradford and Aroldis Chapman have gotten stronger results, with a combined 1.50 ERA across 12 innings of work this postseason.
The Diamondbacks, on the other hand, appear as unlikely a pennant winner as they come. They finished with just an 84-78 record in the regular season and a run differential of -14, making them the first ever team to win the NL pennant with a negative run differential. The only other team to make the World Series with a negative run differential were the 1987 Twins, who went on to win it all in seven games over the Cardinals. With that being said, the Diamondbacks are hardly a pushover. Though the club’s .247/.317/.424 slash line this postseason pales in comparison to that of the Rangers, Arizona’s pitching staff has actually posted stronger numbers this October with a 3.31 ERA and 23.4% strikeout rate against Texas’s 3.67 ERA and 19.2% strikeout rate.
That strong pitching performance has come in spite of the struggles of team ace Zac Gallen, who posted a 3.47 ERA and 3.26 FIP in 210 innings during the regular season but has scuffled to a 5.24 ERA in four postseason starts. Veteran righty Merrill Kelly (2.65 ERA in three postseason starts) and rookie Brandon Pfaadt (2.70 ERA in four postseason starts) have managed to pick the club’s rotation up, however, an especially impressive feat considering Pfaadt’s lackluster regular season ERA of 5.72 across 96 innings. The back of the club’s bullpen has also been nothing short of stellar, with closer Paul Sewald and primary set-up man Kevin Ginkel combining for 17 scoreless innings of work this postseason. Right-hander Ryan Thompson has also impressed, with a 2.53 ERA in 10 2/3 innings of work throughout the playoffs.
On offense, franchise face Ketel Marte (164 wRC+ this postseason) has excelled, while rookies Corbin Carroll (130 postseason wRC+) and Gabriel Moreno (129 wRC+) have also impressed in their first tastes of postseason action. Strong as that trio’s performance may be, however, other key bats like Tommy Pham, Christian Walker and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. have all struggled to this point in the postseason. That could give Texas the offensive edge unless some of the club’s colder bats manage to heat up during the series.
With Gallen and Eovaldi scheduled to face off later this evening for Game 1 of the World Series, which team do MLBTR readers think will take home the Commissioner’s Trophy this year? Have your say in the poll below.
(poll link for app users)
Who Will Win The 2023 World Series?
-
Texas Rangers 69% (3,775)
-
Arizona Diamondbacks 31% (1,724)
Total votes: 5,499
AL Notes: Garver, Eovaldi, Red Sox, Kirilloff
Rangers fans received news today regarding catcher and DH Mitch Garver, who was hit in the rib cage by a pitch from Astros right-hander Bryan Abreu during the sixth inning of Game 7 of the ALCS on Monday. Garver was removed for a pinch-hitter prior to what would have been his next trip to the plate in the eighth inning. Fortunately, however, the Rangers indicated yesterday that an MRI showed Garver’s rib cage had sustained no fractures. Of course, as noted by The Athletic’s Levi Weaver, it’s still possible that the incident could impact Garver during the World Series against the Diamondbacks even as he avoided serious injury.
Garver’s had a solid 2023 with the bat for Texas, though his injury history and lack of time behind the plate in 2023 make for an unusual platform season ahead of his first foray into free agency this November. After slashing .270/.370/.500 in 344 trips to the plate during the regular season, Garver has hit even better for the club in the postseason with a .294/.368/.529 line across 38 plate appearances, with two home runs, two doubles, and a strikeout rate of just 15.8%. If the Rangers don’t feel the need to afford him extra rest after his injury scare, Garver figures to factor into the club’s lineup regularly after drawing starts at DH during every game of the ALCS.
More from around the American League…
- Sticking with the Rangers, veteran right-hander Nathan Eovaldi has been a key cog in the club’s success this season. After posting a 3.63 ERA in 144 innings of work during the regular season, Eovaldi has posted quality starts all four times he’s taken the mound for Texas this postseason, with a 2.42 ERA and 26.9% strikeout rate in 26 innings of work. Eovaldi’s success with the Rangers this year prompted MassLive’s Chris Cotillo to look back at Eovaldi’s free agency last offseason, during which there was mutual interest in a reunion with the Red Sox. Cotillo notes that Boston offered the veteran righty a three-year, $51MM deal in early December, though after Eovaldi decided to hold out for a better offer, the club’s later signings of players like Kenley Jansen and Masataka Yoshida left Boston with a budget crunch later in the offseason. While the sides remained in contact until Eovaldi signed in Texas, Boston’s later offers were characterized by what Cotillo describes as “creative structures” thanks to a desire to stay under the luxury tax. Ultimately, Cotillo adds, the Red Sox pivoted to righty Corey Kluber, who posted a 7.04 ERA in 15 appearances this year, after Eovaldi landed with the Rangers on a two-year, $34MM deal.
- The Twins announced today (as relayed by The Athletic’s Dan Hayes) that outfielder and first baseman Alex Kirilloff avoided a potentially more invasive procedure on his right shoulder as Dr. Neal ElAttrache performed a cleanup procedure of the bursal sac in Kirilloff’s right shoulder today. The Twins had previously revealed that Kirilloff would require offseason shoulder surgery, though it was unclear how severe the procedure would be at the time of the announcement. Ultimately, today’s update appears to be positive news for Minnesota, as Kirilloff will reportedly focus on strengthening his shoulder and improving its range of motion “in the coming weeks” before progressing to his normal offseason routine. Kirilloff acted as the club’s primary first baseman when healthy this season, slashing a solid .270/.348/.445 in 319 trips to the plate across 88 games.