The Opener: World Series, Rangers, Surgeries
Here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day this Halloween:
1. Diamondbacks fall behind at home:
The Diamondbacks dropped the first game of the World Series homestand last night as the Rangers won 3-1. That leaves Arizona trailing in the series, two games to one, as they prepare for Game 4 this evening. As the club did in Game 4 of the NLCS, the Diamondbacks will once again turn to a bullpen game, opened by left-hander Joe Mantiply (4.26 ERA this postseason). Texas, on the other hand, will start lefty Andrew Heaney (6.00 postseason ERA) with righty Dane Dunning (6.00 postseason ERA) and southpaw Cody Bradford (1.35 postseason ERA) as potential piggyback options. Another point of intrigue surrounds second baseman Ketel Marte, who will look to extend his record-breaking playoff hitting streak to 20 consecutive games as he enters the day slashing .333/.362/.545 this postseason. Tonight’s game is slated to begin at 7:03pm CT.
2. Rangers dealing with uncertainty following injuries:
Even as the Rangers took a 2-1 lead in the World Series last night, however, they too face considerable uncertainty going forward. That’s thanks to injuries sustained by two of their key players: outfielder and ALCS MVP Adolis Garcia, who walked off Game 1 of the World Series with an 11th-inning homer but departed yesterday’s game with a left side issue; and veteran right-hander Max Scherzer, who departed his start last night after three innings due to back spasms.
While Garcia underwent an MRI last night, with Rangers manager Bruce Bochy indicating (as relayed by Jeff Wilson of Rangers Today) that the club is “optimistic” regarding their slugger, the chances of Scherzer making another appearance during the series appear far murkier. While Scherzer has indicated he’ll have a better idea of whether or not he can take the mound for Game 7 on Wednesday, it’s fair to wonder if Texas can afford to wait that long before bringing a fresh arm in to replace Scherzer, particularly given the fact that they club is scheduled to play both today and tomorrow.
3. Surgeries for Walls, Cobb could complicate offseason plans:
Both Rays shortstop Taylor Walls and Giants right-hander Alex Cobb were announced yesterday to be undergoing hip surgery. Cobb figures to miss at least the beginning of the 2024 campaign, while Walls is expected to resume baseball activities in February. That puts Opening Day 2024 into down for the infielder, though the Rays are reportedly optimistic about his chances of being ready for the start of the regular season. On the heels of those surgeries, both the Giants and Rays figure to have their offseason to-do lists impacted.
The Giants, now without any surefire starting options beyond Logan Webb for Opening Day 2024, figure to look for starting pitching options this winter aided by a deep class of starting options that includes NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto alongside the likes of Blake Snell and Aaron Nola. The Rays, on the other hand, figure to shore up their infield depth this offseason following the loss of Walls, though the free agent crop of shortstop-capable infielders is far less inspiring, with the likes of Amed Rosario and Paul DeJong among the available options.
Dodgers Notes: Martinez, Ohtani, Burnes, Heyward, Betts
Perhaps one of the most interesting dilemmas facing the Dodgers as they turn toward the coming offseason is the pending free agency of veteran slugger J.D. Martinez. After signing with the club on a one-year, $10MM deal this past offseason, Martinez posted his best offensive season since 2019. In 479 trips to the plate with the Dodgers, Martinez slashed a fantastic .271/.321/.572, good for a 135 wRC+ that ranked 16th among all hitters with 450 plate appearances this season.
That sort of offensive production would normally make extending Martinez a qualifying offer something of a no-brainer for Andrew Friedman and his front office; after all, both Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic and Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times suggest that multi-year offers could be on the table for Martinez in free agency, with Ardaya in particular suggesting that Martinez is likely to receive more than the approximate one-year, $20.5MM deal a QO would provide. That being said, the situation is more complicated than it might seem on the surface. As MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald and Anthony Franco spoke about on last week’s episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast, the possibility of Martinez accepting the QO could complicate matters for LA.
After all, it’s no secret that the Dodgers are expected to pursue top free agent and two-way star Shohei Ohtani this offseason. After undergoing elbow surgery, Ohtani will be relegated to DH-exclusive duties in 2024. That means that if the club rosters both Martinez and Ohtani next year, the Dodgers would either have to play him in the outfield, where he’s played just 12 innings the past two seasons and last played regularly in 2017, or else utilize him as a $20.5MM bench bat, an exorbitant cost for even a high-payroll LA club. What’s more, there’s reason to believe Martinez could accept the offer. After all, the veteran slugger is entering his age-36 season in 2024 and missed time in August due to a nagging groin injury. Given his age and health issues this season, it’s at least conceivable that his market may not wind up being as robust as his fantastic offensive numbers would otherwise suggest.
Speaking of Ohtani, Harris notes that signing the winter’s No. 1 free agent will be a “top priority” for the Dodgers. Since the three-time All-Star will not take the mound next season, he cannot satisfy the team’s need for starting pitching in 2024. Still, the Dodgers seem like an excellent fit for perhaps the most singular talent in MLB history. According to Harris, the club is “cautiously optimistic” about its chances of landing the superstar, although he quickly adds that it’s “anyone’s guess” what factors Ohtani will value the most as he looks for his next contract; even members of the Dodgers front office are unsure what it will take to land the presumptive AL MVP. LA can offer a high salary and the chance to contend for a title, but Ohtani will have no shortage of suitors, and he can certainly afford to be choosy.
On the topic of starting pitching, Harris also mentions that the Dodgers are expected to target Corbin Burnes should the Brewers look to trade the former Cy Young winner. Not long ago, Burnes seemed like a probable trade candidate, given the sizeable raise he’s likely to earn in arbitration and his forthcoming free agency following the 2024 campaign. However, with the news that Brandon Woodruff is likely to miss most (if not all) of the upcoming season, the Brewers might be more hesitant to part with Burnes. Nevertheless, if the star right-hander is, in fact, on the trading block, the Dodgers could be a good match.
Turning back to position players, it comes as little surprise that there is mutual interest between the Dodgers and veteran outfielder Jason Heyward. About a month ago, Harris reported on the reciprocal admiration betwixt Heyward and his Dodgers teammates, and today he notes, “there is believed to be mutual interest” between the former All-Star and the team that helped spark his late-career turnaround. What is slightly more surprising is the fact that superstar Mookie Betts is expected to play a significant amount of second base again next year, potentially freeing up playing time for Heyward in the outfield.
Betts came up as a second baseman, but he became a full-time outfielder during his sophomore season in 2015. He has since won six Gold Gloves for his work in right field, compiling 148 Defensive Runs Saved and 56 Outs Above Average in ten seasons as an outfielder. The versatile athlete that he is, Betts was more than capable of filling in at second base (and shortstop) in 2023, despite not having played more than ten games a year in the infield since his rookie campaign. However, the advanced defensive metrics were mixed on his performance at second, and his powerful arm is undoubtedly a stronger asset in the outfield. While his flexibility is valuable, it’s hard to imagine his best position is anything but right field.
The Dodgers could still pursue some infield help this winter, thereby pushing Betts back into a full-time outfield role. That said, the free agent market for outfielders is significantly deeper, with Heyward just one of many options. Moreover, Betts has made it quite clear he’s comfortable playing second, and evidently, the Dodgers are happy with that arrangement, too. It might not be his best position, but it could be what’s best for the team in 2024.
Taylor Walls Undergoes Hip Surgery
7:53 pm: While the Rays are not prepared to say that Walls will be ready for Opening Day, his manager is “optimistic” he could be back for the start of the 2024 season, per Kristie Ackert of the Tampa Bay Times.
“If he’s running before he comes into spring training, that would be a very good sign,” said Kevin Cash. Still, the skipper cautioned that it’s too soon to know for sure: “I think we’ll know more in a month.”
2:51 pm: The Rays announced this afternoon (as relayed by Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times) that shortstop Taylor Walls underwent a surgical procedure on his right hip today. The procedure aimed to relieve discomfort due to an impingement and repair a tear in the labrum of the hip. Per the Rays, Walls is expected to be ready for baseball activities in February, though his readiness for Opening Day won’t be clear until he returns to baseball activities and a timeline can be established.
It’s an incredibly unfortunate development for the Rays. Walls, 27, emerged as the club’s primary shortstop down the stretch in 2023 following the placement of star shortstop Wander Franco on administrative leave while the league investigated allegations against Franco of inappropriate relationships with multiple minors. While Walls hit well early in the season, slashing .244/.349/.481 in his first 152 trips to the plate, he struggled the rest of the way, slashing just .169/.270/.221 with a 27.9% strikeout rate over his final 197 plate appearances.
Despite that downturn in offensive production, Walls still looked to be in line for the lion’s share of time at shortstop entering next year, pending a decision on Franco’s situation. Walls, a finalist of the utility Gold Glove award in the AL, saw his glove work around the infield praised by Defensive Runs Saved (+10 DRS) but panned by Outs Above Average (-6).
The Rays have a few other options at shortstop in the event that the everyday job remains vacant headed into Opening Day. Youngsters Junior Caminero, Osleivis Basabe, and Vidal Brujan are all already on the 40-man roster, though none of the group have found success in the major leagues to this point in their careers. Caminero’s .235/.278/.353 slash line in a brief 36-PA cup of coffee was the best major-league performance among that trio by measure of wRC+. Given that reality, the club may be best served looking for an external shortstop option to provide depth at the position via free agency.
Such an addition may be easier said than done, however. After all, the Rays are already due to stretch the club’s budget in 2024, with RosterResource projecting the club for a $120MM payroll that exceeds their 2023 figure by more than $50MM. The club may have already been poised to shed salary by moving on from the likes of Harold Ramirez, Manuel Margot, and perhaps even Tyler Glasnow, but such a move seems all the more likely if the Rays are forced to commit additional resources to shortstop in 2024. Quality shortstop options are few and far between in free agency this offseason, with the likes of Amed Rosario, Paul DeJong, and Gio Urshela representing some of the best options available.
AL Notes: Astros, Red Sox, Murphy, Tigers
The Astros figure to add injured right-handers Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia back into their rotation mix in 2024, though The Athletic’s Chandler Rome notes that, with neither player expected to be ready for Opening Day next season, rookie right-handers J.P. France and Hunter Brown could have opportunities to crack the rotation again headed into Spring Training. The club figures to have Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, and Jose Urquidy locked into four spots in the rotation, but that would leave an opening for either France or Brown, with the possibility of both if the club decides to utilize a six-man rotation to open the season.
That being said, Rome also suggests other roles for France and Brown are possible next season. In addition to noting that the Astros would benefit from the addition of a veteran start who could provide “stability” to a rotation that suffered from uneven performances in 2023, Rome also puts forth that right-hander Spencer Arrighetti could factor into the club’s rotation mix as soon as the start of next season. Arighetti, the club’s #3 prospect and top pitching prospect per MLB Pipeline, posted a 4.40 ERA in 124 2/3 innings of work split between Double- and Triple-A in 2023, his age-23 campaign.
With so many possible moving pieces, it’s likely that both Brown and France will be used in roles beyond the starting rotation, at least at some point during the 2024 season. France, in particular, is suggested by Rome as a likely candidate for a swing role that would see him move both in and out of the club’s rotation mix as necessary throughout the year. Brown, on the other hand, seems to have a firmer grip on a potential rotation spot, though Rome adds that Brown’s struggles later in the season (including a 6.72 ERA in his final 18 appearances) highlighted the work Brown still has left to do before he can be the mid-rotation arm the Astros hope he can become.
More from the American League…
- The Red Sox utilized a catching tandem of Connor Wong and Reese McGuire in 2023 to decent effect, with Wong in particular flashing quality glovework behind the plate as the club’s regular starter. Though MassLive’s Chris Cotillo indicates that an addition behind the plate isn’t a priority for Boston after adding top prospect Kyle Teel with their first-round pick in the 2023 draft, he does make note of the fact that Boston was aggressive in their attempts to upgrade behind the plate last offseason. Cotillo goes on to report that the Red Sox “made a serious run” at a trade with the Athletics to acquire All-Star catcher Sean Murphy, making what Cotillo describes as a “competitive” offer to the A’s before they ultimately settled on a three-team deal with the Braves and Brewers to send Murphy to Atlanta. The Red Sox were among the many known suitors for Murphy last offseason, though the A’s set their asking price rather high, with right-hander Brayan Bello‘s name floated in the rumor mill as a potential return. That being said, Boston’s level of interest appears to have been greater than was initially reported, given the new information that Boston made a formal offer for Murphy’s services.
- Although the Tigers have one clear big league catching option in Jake Rogers, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News suggests that finding a suitable backup for Rogers is a primary question for the club as they head into the offseason. While McCosky notes that the club holds a $3.5MM team option over Carson Kelly, he adds that there’s “no indication” as to whether or not the club will ultimately pick up that option. If Kelly is not retained, the club’s top options to back up Rogers internally would be Dillon Dingler and Donny Sands. Dingler enjoyed something of a breakout season at age 24 this year slashing .256/.361/.478 across three levels of the minors, though his .202/.266/.384 showing in 26 games at the Triple-A level left something to be desired. Sands, meanwhile, struggled to a .230/.318/.360 slash line alongside defensive struggles in limited action last season but has a solid offensive track record at Triple-A from his time with the Yankees and Phillies. Per McCosky, the decision on Kelly’s option could come down to the readiness of Dingler for a major league role in 2024.
Central Notes: Bellinger, Counsell, Tigers
Cubs center fielder Cody Bellinger figures to be perhaps the top positional free agent this side of Shohei Ohtani during the coming offseason, and The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma discussed his upcoming free agency with various scouts this morning. Bellinger’s 2023 campaign saw him slash a strong .307/.356/.525, pairing 26 home runs and a minuscule 15.6% strikeout rate with quality defense both in center field and at first base as well as 20 stolen bases. The bounce back campaign comes on the heels of what had been a brutal pair of seasons for Bellinger; the 2019 NL MVP managed a line of just .193/.256/.355 in 900 trips to the plate in 2021 and 2022, production that left him 31% worse than league average by measure of wRC+.
Bellinger’s struggles led the Dodgers to non-tender him this past offseason, leading him to sign with the Cubs for the 2023 campaign. As brutal as those struggles were, Sharma relays that the scouts he spoke to were unconcerned about Bellinger regressing to the below-average form he showed the past two seasons. While Sharma notes that the scouts suggested that Bellinger’s performance this year likely included some good fortune, casting doubt on his ability to replicate the 134 wRC+ campaign he had this season, he still figures to be an above-average contributor over the next few years, with one scout suggesting a 115-120 wRC+ is a realistic expectation for Bellinger in 2024 and beyond.
What’s more, Sharma relays that the Cubs expect Bellinger and his agent, Scott Boras, to be patient in their pursuit of the best contract available this winter. Sharma suggests that the Cubs are “preparing for [Boras] to take Bellinger’s negotiations deep into the offseason” as they maintain interest in resigning him, with the negotiations expected to last into the new year barring “an outlandish deal.” Chicago’s pursuit of Bellinger figures to be a key piece of the club’s offseason on the heels of a 2023 season that saw the Cubs post a surprisingly competitive 83-79 record, finishing just one game out of an NL Wild Card spot. That success came in large part thanks to Bellinger, who was the strongest offensive contributor to the club in 2023. Though top center field prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong is waiting in the wings to take over up the middle, that would likely represent a significant drop in offensive output for the Cubs in 2024.
More from around MLB’s Central divisons…
- Brewers manager Craig Counsell, who is set to become a free agent on November 1, is currently meeting with the Guardians in Cleveland to discuss the club’s managerial opening (as reported by Zack Meisel and Will Sammon of The Athletic). Though the sides ultimately coming together on a deal is considered to be something of a long-shot, the Guardians are accustomed to spending more on their manager than the typical small-market club, as recently-retired Cleveland skipper Terry Francona was reportedly the highest-paid manager in baseball last season. Counsell, 53, is among the most well-regarded managers in the game and figures to be highly sought after during his free agency, with the Mets known to have interest in his services in addition to the Guardians and Brewers. Per SNY’s Andy Martino, Counsell’s meeting with the Guardians today marks his first official interview this offseason.
- The Tigers found a major success story on the waiver wire back during Spring Training in left-hander Tyler Holton, who pitched to a sterling 2.11 ERA and 3.56 FIP in 85 innings of work for Detroit this season. As discussed by Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press, Holton stands out as a prime example of the benefits of president of baseball operations Scott Harris’s frequent use of the waiver wire; as Petzold notes, the Tigers have made 17 waiver claims since Harris took the reins of Detroit’s front office in September 2022. In addition to the savvy waiver claim, Petzold notes that Detroit’s pitching infrastructure helped Holton develop a slider early in the 2023 campaign that proved to be perhaps his most effective pitch. Hitter batted just .135 against the slider this year with a minuscule .153 wOBA, per Statcast.
The Opener: World Series, Scherzer, Angels
As the World Series continues, here are three things we’ll be keeping an eye on around the baseball world throughout the day today:
1. The World Series heads to Arizona:
With the World Series now tied up at one game a piece, the clubs will square off this evening for Game 3 after arriving in Arizona yesterday. On the heels of Merrill Kelly‘s one-run nine-strikeout gem in Game 2, the Diamondbacks will turn to right-hander Brandon Pfaadt this evening. Despite posting a lackluster 5.72 ERA in 96 regular season innings this year, Pfaadt has looked good as the club’s third starter this postseason, with a 2.70 ERA across four starts and 16 strikeouts across his last two appearances.
Dominant as he’s looked in recent appearances, however, manager Torey Lovullo has consistently stuck with a quick hook regarding the 25-year-old righty. Pfaadt’s 5 2/3 inning performance against the Phillies in Game 3 of the NLCS is his longest postseason outing to date, and Pfaadt was at just 70 pitches when Lovullo handed the game to the bullpen. We’ll find out tonight whether Pfaadt can keep his recent success up or if he’s earned additional trust from Lovullo and the Arizona front office with his performance this postseason, as the game is set to begin at 7:03pm CT this evening.
2. Scherzer’s playoff homecoming:
Pitching opposite Pfaadt in tonight’s game is veteran ace and future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer, who is set to face off against the team that drafted him eleventh overall in the 2006 draft to kick off what has been an illustrious professional career. Scherzer ultimately pitched in just two seasons with the Diamondbacks, posting a 3.86 ERA and 3.73 FIP in 226 1/3 innings of work for the club before being shipped to Detroit in trade. Of course, Scherzer has become one of the league’s finest starters since then, racking up three Cy Young awards and more than 3,000 strikeouts since leaving Arizona.
Scherzer’s homecoming comes with its fair share of question marks for the Rangers. The veteran righty missed over a month with a teres major strain that was initially expected to end his season in mid-September, and he was not at his best upon returning in the ALCS against the Astros. Across two games against Houston this postseason, Scherzer surrendered seven runs in 6 2/3 innings of work for the Rangers, striking out six while walking three and allowing two home runs. In addition to the rust from more than a month away from the mound, however, Scherzer recently revealed he was dealing with a cut near the nail on his thumb that impacted his performance against the Astros, though he added the issue shouldn’t continue to impact him going forward. That should come as a relief to fans in Texas, as a strong start from the 39-year-old would put the Rangers in excellent position to head into Game 4 with a series lead.
3. What are the Angels looking for in a new manager?
While the Red Sox have wrapped up their GM search and the Giants landed Bob Melvin to replace Gabe Kapler as their manager, plenty of front office and managerial searches are continuing around the league in the background of the postseason. Among those searches is that of the Angels, who are looking for a new manager to replace outgoing skipper Phil Nevin. It’s been a somewhat curious search so far, as while reports have indicated that the club prefers to hire a veteran manager to lead the club into an uncertain 2024 campaign, many of the known candidates don’t fit that description.
Former Angels players Benji Gil, Darin Erstad, Torii Hunter, and Tim Salmon are all names reportedly under consideration, despite the fact that no member of that group has experience as a major league manager. Erstad and Salmon have experience as head coaches of collegiate and prep programs, respectively, and but Gil is the only one of the group to serve in a major league dugout since retiring as a player; he’s served on the Anaheim coaching staff since 2022 in addition to several stints as a manager in Mexico. That said, some names who wouldn’t be rookie managers have been floated as well. Former big league managers Buck Showalter and Ron Roenicke have both seen their names come up in relation to the Angels’ manager job, with mutual interest being reported between Anaheim and Showalter in particular.
Latest On Angels’ Managerial Search
Though the impending free agency of Shohei Ohtani remains the biggest story of the offseason in Anaheim, the club parted ways with manager Phil Nevin at the end of the 2023 campaign, leading the club to begin a search for his replacement. The search has already turned up a handful of candidates including recently-fired Mets manager Buck Showalter, who has both expressed interest in the job and seen that interest reciprocated by Angels brass. Infield coach Benji Gil and longtime Angels outfielder Darin Erstad have also previously been floated as potential candidates for the position.
USA Today’s Bob Nightengale provided an update on the club’s managerial search this morning, and in doing so put forth three more candidates: five-time All Star Torii Hunter, who patrolled the outfield in Anaheim for five seasons; 1993 Rookie of the Year Tim Salmon, who spent his entire 14-year big league career with the Angels; and veteran coach Ron Roenicke, who spent seven seasons as a third base coach in Anaheim under Mike Scioscia.
Nightengale gives particular mention to Hunter, noting that the 48-year-old is “tremendously regarded” by Angels owner Arte Moreno. Moreno is known to be among the most hands-on owners in the game, so his endorsement would surely be a notable piece of any managerial candidate’s resume. That being said, Hunter lacks experience in the dugout beyond his playing career, which would conflict with the Angels’ previously-reported preference for an experienced manager to take over in Nevin’s stead. Salmon faces a similar roadblock, though he’s served as head coach of Scottsdale Christian Academy in Phoenix since 2015.
If the Angels are valuing experience in their managerial search, Roenicke certainly fits the bill. In addition to his aforementioned tenure with the Angels as a third base coach and an eight-year playing career in the majors, the 67-year-old has served as manager for both the Brewers and Red Sox in the past, while also serving as a coach with the Dodgers and in Boston throughout his post-playing career. He currently serves as a special assistant in the Dodgers’ front office. Nightengale suggests that Roenicke, along with Gil and Showalter, may be in line for formal interviews with the club. It’s unclear if Hunter would also be in line for a potential interview, though Nightengale reports Erstad and Salmon’s candidacies as merely having been “discussed” by Angels brass.
Whoever ultimately takes the reins of the Angels dugout this offseason, they’ll have their work cut out for them in 2024. The Angels finished with identical 73-89 records in both 2022 and 2023, and are at risk of losing a superstar, two-way talent in Ohtani this offseason. Even if the club manages to retain Ohtani, he won’t pitch in 2024, leaving the club with a vacancy at the front of the rotation on top of holes to fill in the bullpen. While the club has a solid position player group, it lacks depth that is particularly necessary for a club that’s seen frequent trips to the injured list for Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, and other veteran players in recent seasons.
Rays Notes: Coaching, Glasnow, Catcher
The Rays coaching staff is set to see some changes this offseason, with three departures having been reported previously. Per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, the club’s head of mental performance Justin Su’a is set to shift to a reduced role next season due to family considerations. Su’a has been with the club since 2018, and it’s unclear how the Rays plan on covering his current responsibilities as he steps back into a smaller role.
Topkin also notes that the Rays are making progress in filling the first base coach vacancy created by the departure of Chris Prieto, with interviews scheduled to begin this week. Triple-A manager Michael Johns, Double-A manager Morgan Ensberg, and coaching/player development assistant director Alejandro Freire are among the internal candidates under consideration for the job, though Topkin adds the team figures to interview external candidates as well. Both Ensberg and Freire played in the majors prior to their coaching careers; Ensberg spent eight seasons in the big leagues as an infielder for the Astros, Yankees, and Padres while Freire had a 25-game stint at first base with the Orioles in 2005.
Beyond the coaching changes, Topkin discusses the club’s upcoming offseason decisions. While the Rays have publicly indicated they could be open to an increased payroll next season, RosterResource projects the team for a payroll of $130MM next season, a $51MM increase over the club’s 2023 payroll. Even if the club were willing to substantially ramp up payroll, the club’s near 40% jump in payroll before any external additions leaves the club likely to explore cost-saving moves this offseason. The club’s most obvious route to trimming payroll would be dealing right-hander Tyler Glasnow, who is set to make $25MM next year in his final season before free agency.
That being said, a Glasnow deal would come with plenty of pitfalls, most obvious of which is the concerning state the rotation would be left in for Opening Day 2024. Zach Eflin and Aaron Civale would both figure to be locked into rotation spots entering Spring Training, but things get murkier from there. Shane Baz is expected to return from Tommy John surgery next season, while Zack Littell and Taj Bradley drew starts for the club to mixed results in 2023. Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs could both rejoin the team late in the season after rehabbing surgeries that ended their 2023 campaigns early. With just two clearly proven, healthy starters besides Glasnow entering 2023, it seems that the Rays would need to find a way to add an arm to the rotation if they did part ways with the righty this offseason.
For Topkin’s part, he suggests that the Rays would be better served making a decision on Glasnow as early in the offseason as possible. Topkin notes that any trade of Glasnow (or lack there of) would likely exert significant influence over the club’s overall offseason plan, and the sooner the club makes a decision on Glasnow, the sooner they can begin looking for a free agent starter to replace him in the rotation, or, alternatively, looking for other ways to trim the club’s payroll. Outfielders Manuel Margot and Harold Ramirez (the latter of whom MLBTR recently profiled as a potential trade candidate) both were mentioned as pieces the Rays could potentially part with this offseason, as well as catcher Christian Bethancourt.
Bethancourt, 32, was Tampa’s primary catcher in 2023, though he struggled at the plate with a .225/.254/.381 slash line in 104 games. Late in the season, Bethancourt ceded the everyday job to 26-year-old Rene Pinto, who performed solid as the club’s regular backstop for the final two months of the season. Topkin makes clear that the Rays appear poised to go in a different direction behind the plate, both noting Bethancourt as a potential candidate to depart the team this offseason and highlighting catching help as a key need for the club this offseason as they look for a player to pair with Pinto behind the plate.
One possible solution Topkin floats is a reunion with Alex Jackson, who played 14 games for the club’s Triple-A affiliate this season before going down with injury. Prior to the 2023 campaign, Jackson spent the past four seasons as a depth option for the Braves, Marlins, and Brewers, getting occasional exposure to the big leagues but only getting an extended look in 2021. He’s struggled with the bat at the big league level to this point with a career slash line of .141/.243/.227 in 185 trips to the plate, though at just 27-years-0ld with a career .851 OPS at the Triple-A level it’s at least conceivable he could unlock another level with more consistent major league opportunities. The upcoming free agent class behind the plate features the likes of Gary Sanchez and Victor Caratini as potential regular options.
MLBTR Poll: Cardinals’ Outfield Logjam
The Cardinals have made clear their intention to pursue plenty of pitching help as they attempt to return to contention in 2024. While the deep class of pitchers set to be available provides the club with ample opportunities to dip into free agency, it’s no secret that the Cardinals have an excess of outfield talent. Each of Lars Nootbaar, Jordan Walker, Dylan Carlson, and Tyler O’Neill play the outfield exclusively for St. Louis, while multi-positional options Brendan Donovan and Tommy Edman saw plenty of time in the outfield as well during the 2023 campaign.
That led the Cardinals to field trade offers on their glut of outfield talent at the trade deadline, though none of their position players ultimately ended up moving besides pending free agent shortstop Paul DeJong. Those talks could begin anew this coming offseason, allowing the Cardinals to explore the trade market for potential pitching additions. Walker and Nootbaar were both regarded as essentially untouchable at the deadline, and it seems likely that they’ll be similarly protected from trade talks this offseason. That being said, each of Carlson, O’Neill, Edman, and Donovan found their names in the rumor mill this past season. Let’s take a look at each of them:
Dylan Carlson (0.2 fWAR in 2023)
Carlson, who celebrated his 25th birthday earlier this week, is coming off a major down season in 2023 where he slashed just .219/.318/.333 in 255 plate appearances. Despite those brutal numbers, Carlson reportedly received interest from multiple clubs at the trade deadline, including the Yankees and Orioles. As a young switch-hitter who was once a consensus top-20 prospect in the sport and is under team control through the 2026 campaign, Carlson could once again be a sought-after change of scenery candidate. That being said, his value is likely at an all time low after undergoing ankle surgery in September (though he’s expected to be ready for Spring Training) and posting the worst offensive season of his career in 2023. Given Carlson’s remaining team control, it’s possible the Cardinals would be better off holding onto their former top prospect in hopes he can rebound in 2024 and improve his stock. On the other hand, another difficult season for Carlson in 2024 could squander whatever remaining interest clubs have in prying him away from St. Louis.
Tyler O’Neill (0.8 fWAR in 2023)
Much like Carlson, O’Neill is also coming off something of a down season, having slashed just .231/.312/.403 in 266 trips to the plate in 2023. As uninspiring as those numbers may be, O’Neill is just two seasons removed from a sensational 2021 campaign that saw him slash .286/.352/.560 with a 143 wRC+ and 5.5 fWAR in 138 games. What’s more, O’Neill posted the lowest strikeout rate of his career in 2023, with a 25.2% strikeout rate. If O’Neill can find a way to balance the power he flashed in 2021 with his improved plate discipline in 2023, he could be an impactful offensive player for just about any club. That being said, with just one year of team control remaining before O’Neill hits free agency, he would likely generate the smallest return package of any of the players listed here. With contention in 2024 uncertain, it’s easy to make the argument that the Cardinals would be wise to deal O’Neill while they still can, though it’s also fair to wonder if they’d be selling too low on a player with an exciting offensive ceiling.
Brendan Donovan (2.1 fWAR in 2023)
Donovan, 26, made good on a strong rookie campaign during his sophomore season, slashing .284/.365/.422 while flashing improved power numbers in 371 trips to the plate. Donovan underwent season-ending surgery on the day of the trade deadline this year after being relegated to DH-only duties for much of the season thanks to a flexor tendon injury. Fortunately, Donovan is expected to be ready Spring Training in 2024 and, when healthy, is a premiere utility option who would be of interest to virtually any club. To this point in his career, Donovan has logged time at all four infield spots and both outfield corners. Between his versatility, solid bat, and the fact that he’s not yet even eligible for arbitration, Donovan is easily the most attractive trade candidate on this list who would deliver the strongest return, though it would be a major loss for the Cardinals offense if the club parted with a player of Donovan’s caliber.
Tommy Edman (2.3 fWAR in 2023)
Perhaps the most surprising candidate to appear on this list, Edman came into the 2023 campaign having spent the overwhelming majority of his career on the infield dirt as a shortstop and second baseman. That changed this season, however, as Edman split his time between second base, shortstop, and center field, taking his role in center quite well. While Edman slashed just .248/.307/.399 (92 wRC+) in 137 games with the club this year, his quality defense at three up the middle positions and roughly league average switch-hitting bat would make him an attractive trade candidate for virtually any team. Edman is controlled through the 2025 campaign, giving him more value on the trade market than a rental bat like O’Neill even as he doesn’t come with the same extensive team control as Carlson or Donovan.
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With the Cardinals looking to completely revamp their pitching staff in 2023, it would be a shock if the club didn’t at least look into dealing from its surplus of outfield depth while they attempt to return to contention following a 91-loss season. If they do move on from one of the aforementioned players, which should they look to deal? O’Neill or Carlson departing likely wouldn’t set the 2024 club back very much on offense, though they presumably wouldn’t garner a very significant return as the club looks to add big league-ready pitching options. On the other hand, the club would be far more likely to land a bona fide rotation-caliber arm if they dealt Donovan or Edman, but the 2024 team’s positional group would take a far more significant step back in losing either player’s versatility.
(poll link for app users)
Which Outfielder Should The Cardinals Move?
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Tyler O'Neill 58% (3,666)
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Dylan Carlson 25% (1,571)
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Tommy Edman 10% (627)
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Brendan Donovan 7% (463)
Total votes: 6,327
AL Notes: Orioles, Astros, Red Sox
The Orioles figure to have something of a logjam in the outfield next year, as established starters Anthony Santander, Cedric Mullins, and Austin Hays will be joined by top prospects Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad on the grass in the majors at some point next year. As noted by Roch Kubatko of MASN, that could come as soon as the start of the 2024 season, as GM Mike Elias has indicated that both Cowser and Kjerstad could be in the mix for the Opening Day roster next season. That leaves the Orioles with five starting caliber outfielders headed into the 2024 campaign, and that ignores depth options like Kyle Stowers and Ryan McKenna.
Needless to say, given the club’s logjam, the club figures to field interest on their outfielders this offseason, with Kubatko noting that “industry speculation” suggests the Orioles could look to move one of their five primary outfield options in order to free up playing time. Among them, Kubatko indicates that Santander and Hays have drawn the most interest, while the Orioles are likely to consider Cowser in particular to be untouchable in trade talks. Subtracting either Santander or Hays from the club’s 2024 outfield mix would leave them with a very lefty-heavy outfield, as each of Mullins, Cowser, Kjerstad, and Stowers bat left-handed. Given that, Santander might be the most sensible player for the club to move as a switch-hitter with just one year of control remaining, compared to Hays’s two years of team control and righty bat.
More from the American League…
- Dusty Baker has announced his retirement from managing, prompting the Astros to begin a managerial search. That search, of course, is still in its early stages with Houston having just been eliminated from postseason contention less than a week ago. Houston bench coach Joe Espada and former Angels and Tigers manager Brad Ausmus are both reportedly under consideration for the position, but questions remain as to who exactly will conduct the club’s managerial search. Chandler Rome of The Athletic discussed that uncertainty earlier this week, noting that owner Jim Crane and adviser Jeff Bagwell both wield considerable influence in the front office, even with GM Dana Brown at the helm of the baseball operations department. Rome notes that Bagwell was particularly influential in the club’s 2022-23 offseason following the departure of former GM James Click last November, while Crane was a key engineer of the Justin Verlander trade at the deadline this year. Rome indicates that the duo’s influence over baseball operations will continue with the upcoming managerial search, with each having “immense say” over the next manager alongside Brown.
- The Chaim Bloom era of Red Sox baseball is now officially in the rearview mirror as the club hired former major league pitcher and Cubs executive Craig Breslow as the club’s new chief baseball officer earlier this week. MassLive’s Sean McAdam discussed the importance of Breslow and manager Alex Cora building a strong relationship together in the early stages of their partnership, and in doing so noted that the relationship between Bloom and Cora frayed during the “last year or so” of Bloom’s tenure at the helm. While Cora was frustrated with Bloom’s lack of urgency in returning to contention, McAdam notes that the pair’s relationship was complicated by Cora temporarily departing the club during the 2019-20 offseason, mere months after Bloom was hired to replace Dave Dombrowski. Fortunately for the Red Sox, Breslow and Cora should have no such roadblock as they look to build a strong working relationship going forward.