MLBTR Chat Transcript
Click here to read a transcript of this week’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.
Camp Battles: Twins’ Fifth Starter
Entering the offseason, the Twins’ rotation consisted of Jose Berrios and, uh … [checks notes] — that’s about it. Minnesota had quite a bit of work to do to fill out the starting staff and immediately received a boost when Jake Odorizzi accepted a $17.8MM qualifying offer. The Twins brought back another piece of their ’19 rotation when they agreed to a two-year, $20MM deal with Michael Pineda, although he’ll miss the first six weeks while serving the remainder of a reduced 60-game PED suspension. The rest of their moves took a bit longer, but by the time the Twins reported to camp in Fort Myers, Fla., they had lockers set up for Kenta Maeda, Rich Hill and Homer Bailey.
Minnesota didn’t get the “impact” pitching they proclaimed to be a priority, instead pivoting to give Josh Donaldson the second-largest deal in franchise history (four years, $92MM) after coming up short in their pursuits of Zack Wheeler, Hyun-Jin Ryu and (reportedly to a lesser extent) Madison Bumgarner. But they’ll break camp with a rotation consisting of Berrios, Odorizzi, Maeda and Bailey, with both Pineda and Hill (coming back from elbow surgery) looming as midseason additions.
As for the fifth spot early in the season? The Twins have a handful of options who’ll be considered over the course of the next month, including a series of optionable 40-man roster members and at least one low-risk non-roster invitee…
- Randy Dobnak, RHP: It’s hard not to consider Dobnak the front-runner, considering the Twins entrusted him with a postseason start last year after Pineda was suspended. That outing, of course, didn’t go well, but Dobnak’s 2019 season was nonetheless an eye-opener. It took the 25-year-old two years and one week to go from undrafted indie league hurler to the Majors. His rapid ascent in 2019 was in no small part due to the combined 2.07 ERA, 7.3 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 0.40 HR/9 and near-60 percent ground-ball rate he turned in over 135 minor league innings (three levels). Upon reaching the big leagues, Dobnak turned in a 1.59 ERA and 2.90 FIP in 28 1/3 innings. He won’t simply be handed the job, but Dobnak went from an unranked prospect within the Twins’ system to a potential rotation favorite in the span of one year.
- Devin Smeltzer, LHP: Not to be overshadowed, Smeltzer had an impressive 2019 campaign of his own. Acquired in the trade that sent Brian Dozier to Los Angeles, the 24-year-old turned in a 2.76 ERA with a pristine 104-to-22 K/BB ratio in 104 1/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. His big league work wasn’t quite as sharp, but in 49 innings, Smeltzer gave the Twins a 3.86 ERA with averages of 7.0 strikeouts, 2.2 walks and 1.47 homers per nine innings pitched. Like Dobnak, he elevated his status within the organization about as much as a prospect can in a year’s time. For what it’s worth, the Twins’ outfield defense is vastly superior to its infield defense, and Smeltzer is a fly-ball pitcher.
- Lewis Thorpe, LHP: Thorpe, 24, was a notable signing out of Australia back on the 2012-13 international market and twice landed on Baseball Prospectus’ Top 101 prospects list (2014-15). Tommy John surgery in 2015 wound up costing him all of the 2015-16 seasons, though, which significantly delayed his path to the big leagues. Thorpe has shown huge strikeout ability in the minors, and while last year’s 4.58 ERA in Triple-A doesn’t look like much, it was at least a respectable showing in a league that was dominated by hitters. Thorpe averaged better than 11 punchouts per nine frames in Triple-A and struck out 31 hitters in 27 2/3 MLB frames in his debut effort. His bottom-line results in the Majors weren’t great (6.18 ERA), but he’s now fully recovered from Tommy John surgery and misses more bats than any of his competition.
- Jhoulys Chacin, RHP (non-roster): The primary veteran NRI in Twins camp, Chacin stumbled through the worst season of his career in 2019, recording a 6.01 ERA and serving up an average of 2.2 homers per nine innings pitched. The long ball has never been an Achilles heel for Chacin, though, and he’s only a year removed from a strong showing in Milwaukee (3.50 ERA, 7.3 K/9, 3.3 BB/9 in 192 2/3 innings). In fact, from 2013-18, Chacin notched a 3.96 ERA/4.02 FIP in 804 1/3 innings. It’ll surprise some to learn that Chacin only just turned 32 years old in January — he debuted at 21 back in 2009 — so a rebound is hardly out of the question. It seems likely that Chacin would need to handily outperform the rest of the field, given that he’s not on the 40-man roster, but he’s in the mix even if he’s a long shot.
Whoever wins the competition appears likely to be a stopgap until Pineda returns, but it’s possible that any combination of the candidates will also see action in the bullpen as well. This group will also be the Twins’ first line of defense against potential injuries. However it shakes out, Minnesota seems likely to once again explore the market for higher-end pitching upgrades on the summer trade market. The above-listed candidates, Pineda and Hill give the Twins plenty of depth in the rotation, but expect them to pursue potential playoff-rotation-caliber arms in the weeks leading up to the deadline as well.
Andrew Cashner Being Marketed As Reliever
The 19 relief appearances that Andrew Cashner made with the Red Sox last year were his first bullpen outings since 2013, but it seems as though more could be in the offing. Cashner has been positioned as a bullpen option in recent conversations with teams, MLBTR has learned.
Shifting Cashner to the ‘pen isn’t exactly a new notion. It’s been a widely proposed idea for years, and we even delved into it here last May when Cashner was still enjoying some success in the Baltimore rotation. That he’s now being “pitched” (awful pun intended — sorry) to clubs as a reliever is notable, though. The Athletic’s Dan Connolly noted last summer (subscription required) that Cashner’s preference has generally been to pitch out of the rotation, but it seems he’s now more on board with a ‘pen setting — perhaps after enjoying some success in that capacity with Boston last year.
The Red Sox acquired Cashner to plug a hole in their rotation, but he did little to aid the team’s starting staff; over the life of six starts with Boston, Cashner pitched 30 1/3 innings and surrendered 27 earned runs. That pushed him to the bullpen, where he closed out the season with a 3.86 ERA, a 21-to-12 K/BB ratio and one home run allowed in 23 2/3 innings. Cashner averaged 93.6 mph on his fastball as a starter but 95.4 mph as a reliever. His swinging-strike rate saw a similar boost (8.8 percent to 13.1 percent). Taking a broader look, the gap between Cashner’s effectiveness the first and second time through the batting order (.297 wOBA vs. .327) was a fair bit more stark than that of the league-average AL pitcher (.317 vs. .335).
There are clearly some control issues that need to be sorted out, and Cashner’s recent work as a starter has been anything but encouraging. However, Cashner has enough indicators of legitimate interest as a reliever that the shift to the ‘pen seems plenty sensible. That’s not to say that teams should be lining up with blank checks, but as a low-cost Spring Training flier for a club seeking bullpen depth, Cashner is one of the more interesting options available in a largely picked-over free agent market.
Rangers’ Brock Burke To Undergo Shoulder Surgery
The Rangers will be without one of their top pitching prospects for all of the 2020 season, as the organization announced Monday that lefty Brock Burke will undergo arthroscopic surgery to repair fraying and a partial tear in the labrum of his left shoulder this week. He’s not expected to pitch again until 2021.
Burke wasn’t projected to crack the Opening Day roster, but he would’ve functioned as a key depth piece for the club’s reworked rotation. He’s already on the 40-man roster and made his MLB debut last August — shortly after his 23rd birthday. Burke struggled in six big league starts (22 runs in 26 2/3 innings), but he posted a 3.90 ERA with 9.2 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 and a minuscule 0.4 HR/9 across three minor league levels last year. The Rangers initially acquired him from the Rays in last offseason’s three-team swap that sent Jurickson Profar to Oakland.
Texas’ offseason acquisitions of Corey Kluber, Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles pushed Burke and fellow left-hander Kolby Allard out of the rotation mix early in the season, but both pitchers were one big league injury away from being summoned from Triple-A Nashville to the newly constructed Globe Life Field in Arlington. Earlier this winter, Baseball America ranked Burke 21st among Rangers prospects — the same slot he occupied on FanGraphs’ most recent ranking of the Texas minor league system. He’s generally regarded as a potential back-of-the-rotation starter who gets by with average across-the-board stuff rather than a particular plus offering.
Burke will likely be placed on the 60-day injured list to open a 40-man roster spot at some point this spring, thus positioning him to accrue a full year of Major League service time while he rehabs from Friday’s upcoming procedure. That’s surely not the way that the Rangers would’ve preferred to open a 40-man spot, but the club does have several non-roster invitees in camp who stand a realistic chance of making the team. Matt Duffy, Greg Bird, Sam Travis, Cody Allen, Blake Swihart, Edinson Volquez, Juan Nicasio and Derek Law are among the notable non-roster players in big league camp with Texas in 2020.
Blue Jays To Sign Marc Rzepczynski
The Blue Jays have agreed to a minor league deal with veteran left-hander Marc Rzepczynski, manager Charlie Montoyo revealed when meeting with reporters Monday morning (Twitter link via Sportsnet’s Arden Zwelling). Rzepczynski still needs to complete his physical, but once he does, the JBA Sports client will head to Major League camp as a non-roster invitee.
Rzepczynski, 34, didn’t pitch in the big leagues in 2019 — the first time since 2008 that he didn’t pitch at least 10 innings in a big league season. Instead, the southpaw spent the year with the Diamondbacks’ Triple-A affiliate, where he pitched to a 5.04 ERA with 36 strikeouts against 28 walks in 44 innings of relief. Suffice it to say, the 2019 campaign wasn’t one of the southpaw’s best.
That said, Rzepczynski has a generally solid track record at the big league level. He’s compiled a 3.89 ERA and near-identical 3.88 FIP in 434 2/3 MLB frames — including a quality run from 2011-17 that saw him log a 3.61 earned run average (3.59 FIP) in 299 1/3 innings. It’s been two years since his last effective campaign at the MLB level, but there’s little harm in taking a speculative spring look to see a rebound appears possible.
Major League Baseball’s recent rule changes — the three-batter minimum for pitches, specifically — won’t do any favors for the man perhaps more commonly known as “Scrabble.” Rzepczynski has generally been used in a specialized left-on-left role throughout his career. Lefty hitters have mustered only a dismal .227/.296/.305 slash against him in 857 trips to the plate, but righties have had far less difficulty, as evidenced by a .280/.385/.437 output in 1035 plate appearances.
Assessing The Brewers’ Rotation
As seems to be the case every spring, there’s a fair bit of uncertainty surrounding the Brewers’ rotation. Milwaukee eschewed a splashy trade or a potentially cumbersome long-term pact in free agencu, instead opting for lower-cost deals with righty Josh Lindblom (three years, $9.125MM) and Brett Anderson (one year, $5MM) As things currently stand, that duo will likely join holdovers Brandon Woodruff and Adrian Houser in comprising four of the top five spots.
As for the fifth spot in the rotation, Brewers manager Craig Counsell told reporters yesterday that the competition will likely boil down to left-hander Eric Lauer and right-hander Freddy Peralta (Twitter link via Adam McCalvy of MLB.com). Righty Corbin Burnes isn’t entirely out of the race, but Counsell did indicate that veteran right-hander Shelby Miller won’t be considered just yet. While Miller was invited to MLB camp and will presumably get some innings there, he’s working to reestablish himself after several lost seasons.
The competition between Lauer and Peralta will be a key one for Brewers fans to follow this spring. The former, a 24-year-old lefty picked up alongside Luis Urias in the trade that sent Zach Davies and Trent Grisham to San Diego, already has nearly two full seasons of MLB experience under his belt despite his relative youth. Lauer started 29 games for the Padres last season, pitching to a 4.45 ERA with 8.3 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 1.20 HR/9 and a 39.9 percent ground-ball rate in 149 2/3 innings.
Lauer pitched into the seventh and eighth inning on a few occasions but ultimately averaged about five frames per start — a concept that should be plenty familiar to Brewers fans at this point. Milwaukee regularly limited the aforementioned Davies and right-hander Chase Anderson to two trips through the opponents’ batting order, leveraging a deep bullpen thereafter. If he wins the fifth spot in the rotation, Lauer could be deployed in similar fashion.
Peralta, meanwhile, is still just 23 year of age. Like Lauer, he’s racked up a fair bit of big league experience in his early 20s, pitching to a combined 4.79 ERA in 163 1/3 Major League innings to this point. Peralta spent most of the 2019 season in a multi-inning relief role — showing better in that capacity than he did as a starting pitcher. But Peralta has added a new pitch to his repertoire this winter, as Tom Haudricourt and Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel recently highlighted, which could change his fortunes. A chat with former big league righty and current Brewers special assistant Carlos Villanueva led to Peralta trying out a slider in the Dominican Winter League, and he responded with a 34-to-3 K/BB ratio in 20 innings with los Toros del Este.
The 25-year-old Burnes could be something of a wild card as camp progresses. A consensus top 100 prospect heading into 2018, Burnes debuted in dominant fashion with the ’18 club when he tossed 38 innings of 2.61 ERA ball with a 35-to-11 K/BB ratio. He made 30 total relief appearances, allowing just 27 hits (four homers); of his 11 walks, two were of the intentional variety. Burnes posted elite spin rates on his curve and heater while flashing high-end velocity. He looked like a potential cornerstone for the pitching staff.
The 2019 season was an unmitigated disaster for Burnes, however. The hitter-friendly nature of the 2019 ball likely didn’t help matters, nor did a sky-high .414 average on balls in play. But Burnes’ poor showing can’t be solely blamed on a juiced ball or poor luck; he was absolutely torched for 48 runs in 49 innings of work — yielding a stunning 17 home runs in that time. The right-hander showed a clear knack for missing bats (12.9 K/9, 17.2 percent swinging-strike rate) but struggled with location both in and out of the zone far. Burnes’ walk rate increased, and his inability to command the ball within the zone contributed to that barrage of long balls.
Regardless of how it shakes out, the Milwaukee rotation will enter the season facing its share of scrutiny. That’s been the case in both of the past two seasons, however, and the team reached the postseason in both instances. A year ago. The 2019 season saw Jhoulys Chacin, Chase Anderson, Woodruff, Davies, Houser and Gio Gonzalez make the majority of its starts. A year prior, the Brewers entered the season with Chacin, Anderson, Davies, Junior Guerra, Brent Suter and Wade Miley (then on a minor league reclamation deal) heading up its rotation mix.
There may not be a surefire ace among Milwaukee’s starting staff, but both Woodruff and Houser posted sub-4.00 ERAs with strong peripheral marks in more than 100 innings in 2019. Lindblom is an undeniably interesting flier coming off a dominant run in the Korea Baseball Organization, thanks in part to a new splitter. Brett Anderson has a 4.07 ERA and a 55 percent ground-ball rate over the past two seasons (256 1/3 innings). It’s not the most outwardly impressive group of arms, but the Brewers have begun to make a habit of compiling serviceable staffs that are light on name value. They’ll be looking for more of the same in 2020.
Phillies, Hector Neris Avoid Arbitration
1:38pm: The option is priced at $7MM, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter), but that value can move significantly north. It’ll cost an extra $50K for every five games finished, beginning at his 10th and ending at his 35th. The needle moves $100K at 40, 45, and 50 games finished. And the option price jumps $200K at numbers 55, 60, and 63. That adds up to $1.2MM in total potential escalators.
9:42am: The Phillies have announced their agreement with Neris, revealing that the contract also contains a club option for the 2021 season. That it’s not a straight one-year pact perhaps explains the reason that the team broke from the file-and-trial approach. If the team ultimately declines the option, Neris would still remain under club control as an arbitration-eligible player.
7:35am: The Phillies have avoided an arbitration hearing with right-hander Hector Neris, Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia reports (via Twitter). The last-minute settlement will guarantee Neris a $4.6MM salary for the upcoming season. Neris settled slightly below the midpoint between his own $5.2MM submission and the club’s $4.25MM counter.
Neris, 30, racked up 28 saves as the Phillies’ primary closer in 2019, pitching to a strong 2.93 ERA with averages of 11.8 strikeouts, 3.2 walks and 1.33 home runs per nine innings pitched. He appeared in 68 games and tallied 67 2/3 innings en route to an impressive rebound effort from a down year in 2018. He’ll be eligible for arbitration for a third and final time next winter before reaching free agency in the 2021-22 offseason.
The one-year arrangement represents a rarity in today’s arbitration environment. Virtually all clubs utilize a “file and trial” approach to the process — meaning that once figures are exchanged with a player, negotiations on a one-year settlement cease, leaving the two sides to determine the player’s salary in a hearing. (Multi-year deals are typically still negotiated if there’s mutual interest, however.) Astros outfielder George Springer also avoided arb on a one-year deal last month, although that agreement was seemingly negotiated directly with owner Jim Crane after he dismissed president of baseball operations Jeff Luhnow.
The Phillies won an arbitration hearing over All-Star catcher J.T. Realmuto yesterday, thus keeping his salary at the $10MM figure they submitted — as opposed to Realmuto’s own $12.4MM submission. With their arbitration cases now resolved, the Phillies should check in with a bottom-line payroll just north of $182.5MM and roughly $203.9MM in luxury tax commitments (per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez). That leaves them just over $4MM shy of the luxury tax barrier.
With Neris’ salary now in place, the last pending arbitration result is that of D-backs closer Archie Bradley (as reflected in MLBTR’s 2020 Arbitration Tracker).
Rockies Sign Daniel Bard
Daniel Bard‘s latest comeback attempt is officially underway. The former Red Sox reliever has agreed to a minor league deal with the Rockies and will had to Major League camp, per Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post (Twitter link). The Boston Globe’s Pete Abraham reported last week that Bard was working toward a comeback.
Now 34 years old, Bard once looked like a potential closer in waiting for the Red Sox. The No. 28 overall pick in the 2006 draft debuted in 2009 and made an immediate impact with a 2.88 ERA, 9.7 K/9, 3.5 BB/9 and 0.7 HR/9 in his first 197 innings. Control issues arose soon after, though, and spiraled into a full-blown case of the Yips. Bard averaged 6.5 walks per nine innings pitched and posted a 6.22 ERA in 2012, and his career went completely off the rails following that effort.
Bard missed time with an abdominal injury in 2013 and pitched only a combined 16 1/3 innings between the Majors and Triple-A — walking a staggering 27 batters in that span. Winter ball in the 2013-14 offseason and a brief stint with the Rangers in 2014 only confirmed that Bard’s control had vanished; Bard walked 18 of the 31 hitters he faced between the Puerto Rican Winter League and his quick run with the Rangers’ Class-A club. He embarked on comeback attempts with the Cardinals and Mets in 2016-17 but encountered similar results.
With the Rockies, it’s anyone’s guess as to whether the righty can tap into the talent that once made him such a well-regarded young pitcher. Colorado’s bullpen has more than its share of highly compensated, underperforming veterans — Wade Davis, Bryan Shaw, Jake McGee — but the Rox coaxed varying levels of success out of Scott Oberg, Carlos Estevez and Jairo Diaz. There should still be a spot or two up for grabs, but it also wouldn’t be a surprise if the Rockies brought Bard along slowly and eased him back into pro ball with some minor league work before considering him for the big league bullpen.
Luis Severino Shut Down Due To Forearm Discomfort
11:05am: Boone said this morning at Yankees camp that Severino will travel to New York and undergo another series of tests on Monday (Twitter link via The Athletic’s Lindsey Adler).
February 21, 9:10am: A pair of MRIs and a CT scan have all come back negative, general manager Brian Cashman told reporters yesterday (video link via MLB.com). For now, Severino has been placed on a new anti-inflammatory and will be reevaluated in a few days’ time.
February 20: In yet another bit of troubling injury news for Yankees fans, manager Aaron Boone revealed Thursday that right-hander Luis Severino is experiencing forearm soreness that dates all the way back to his final ALCS appearance in 2019 (Twitter links via MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch). Severino also has a loose body in his elbow, per Boone. He’ll be shut down for at least the next few days and will be examined by team physician Dr. Chris Ahmad tomorrow. Asked if Severino would be ready for Opening Day, Boone could only reply, “We’ll see.”
While tomorrow’s doctor visit will shed more light on the specifics of Severino’s issue, obviously this isn’t at all how the righty hoped to begin his Spring Training, especially not in the wake of what was essentially a lost 2019 season. Severino pitched only 20 1/3 total innings (12 in the regular season, 8 1/3 in the postseason) last year after a shoulder injury and then a lat strain kept him from making his season debut until September 17.
Any mention of a forearm injury also raises the specter of Tommy John surgery, the worst-case scenario that would sideline Severino until Opening Day 2021 at the earliest. Back in 2016 (and on the updated list in 2017), MLBTR contributor Bradley Woodrum created a model for predicting what pitchers are the largest risks for TJ surgeries, with Severino ranking as having a better-than-average chance at a future procedure in both rankings.
It was a little over one year ago that Severino signed a four-year, $40MM extension that has yet to yield any return for the Yankees. The deal covered Severino’s four arbitration-eligible years (and, via a club option for 2023, the first of his free-agent seasons) so the Yankees gained some cost certainty with the extension, though it did boost the right-hander’s luxury tax number over the course of the next four seasons. While a $10MM average annual value is small potatoes for a big-market team like New York, every extra dollar is impactful for Competitive Balance Tax purposes, considering the Yankees were over the luxury tax threshold in 2019 and are currently projected to soar well over the highest luxury tax penalty threshold of $248MM in 2020.
With James Paxton already out of action until at least May, the Yankees’ rotation would take a further hit if Severino is required to miss any time. Gerrit Cole, Masahiro Tanaka, J.A. Happ are the projected top three in the rotation, with a group that consists of Jordan Montgomery, Luis Cessa, Deivi Garcia, Michael King, and Jonathan Loaisiga now potentially battling for two rotation spots, rather than just the fifth starter’s role in Paxton’s absence.
Archie Bradley Wins Arbitration Hearing Against Diamondbacks
Diamondbacks closer Archie Bradley won his arbitration hearing against the team, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports (via Twitter). He’ll earn the $4.1MM salary figure submitted by his representatives at the BBI Sports Group rather than the $3.625MM sum proposed by the D-backs. That’s a $2.27MM raise over last season’s $1.83MM salary. Bradley will be eligible for arbitration for the final time next winter before becoming a free agent in the 2021-22 offseason.
The 27-year-old Bradley, the No. 7 overall draft pick back in 2011, never quite panned out as a starter but has found his groove in a relief role. The righty has gradually been entrusted with increasing amounts of high-leverage innings and eventually supplanted Opening Day closer Greg Holland as Arizona’s top ninth-inning option in 2019. Overall, he pitched to a 3.52 ERA with 18 saves, 10.9 K/9, 4.5 BB/9, 0.63 HR/9 and a 45.2 percent ground-ball rate. He’s the clear favorite for save opportunities heading into the 2020 season.
Since moving to the bullpen full time in 2017, Bradley has helped to anchor the Arizona bullpen with a 2.95 ERA (3.24 FIP) and 10 strikeouts per nine inning pitched over the course of 216 1/3 innings. He’s appeared in at least 63 games and pitched at least 71 2/3 innings in each of those three seasons. As it stands, he’s slated to hit the open market in advance of his age-29 campaign, so if he continues on his current trajectory without incurring a significant injury, his age should put him in position for a relatively handsome payday.
With Bradley’s victory and this morning’s last-minute settlement by Phillies closer Hector Neris ($4.6MM with a 2021 club option), all of this year’s arbitration cases have now been resolved. Teams rushed out to an early 4-0 lead over the players but ultimately wound up at a more balanced 7-5 when all was said and done. Now that all of this year’s cases are in the books, you can see the full slate of pre-trial agreements, extensions and hearing outcomes in MLBTR’s 2020 Arbitration Tracker.