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Last month, we rolled out a new commenting system at MLBTR for various reasons. Yesterday, we implemented the great wpDiscuz plugin to add back some of the features you’ve been missing. The following features were added:
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2016 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings
We’re about 45% of the way through the 2015 MLB season, and free agency looms for several of the game’s star players. It’s time for a new installment of the 2016 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings.
As a reminder, these rankings represent earning power in terms of total contract size, assuming everyone reaches the open market after this season and goes to the highest bidder. Here’s MLBTR’s full list of 2015-16 free agents.
1. Justin Upton. Upton hasn’t shown much power in the last month or so, but he still tops our list. He’ll need to pick the pace back up to exceed his career high of 31 home runs. The Padres’ playoff chances don’t look too promising, so Upton could become ineligible for a qualifying offer with a trade next month.
2. David Price. Price has been stellar in his seven starts since we last checked in, and his 2.42 ERA ranks fourth in the American League. He’ll turn 30 in August, and seems poised for a record megadeal. I’m not quite there yet, but I could see Price passing Upton on this list before the season is through.
3. Jason Heyward. With home runs in his last three games, Heyward reminded us that he does still have some pop in his bat. Here’s some cherry-picking: he’s hitting .304/.350/.489 since April 23rd. If this winds up being Heyward’s best offensive year since 2012, he could get $200MM.
4. Johnny Cueto. Cueto remains one of the best pitchers in the National League, but he went 13 days between starts in late May/early June due to a sore elbow. A May 26th MRI showed no structural damage. Cueto returned and looked fine in four starts, but then had his turn skipped earlier this week. The conspiracy theorist in me says the Reds are being a little cagey here, avoiding putting Cueto on the DL so far for the purpose of trade value. Still, it’s not as if suitors wouldn’t be fully aware of the state of Cueto’s elbow. What we know for sure: it’s not nothing. For now, Cueto’s free agent value takes a little dip.
5. Zack Greinke. It’s tough to move Greinke up this high, because his earning power is limited by his age. Greinke turns 32 in October, which may be too old for a six-year deal. Still, he leads all of baseball with a 1.70 ERA. Greinke will be a year older than Jon Lester was, but will have a better resume.
6. Alex Gordon. Gordon’s 2015 season looks a lot like his 2014, but with more walks and HBPs sprinkled in. He may not strike you as a superstar, but Gordon is probably the game’s best left fielder right now. One team might be willing to go well over $100MM for his perceived dependability.
7. Jordan Zimmermann. Zimmermann’s season, and free agent value, is still kind of up in the air. I’m not sure exactly what he is, though I know he’s not at the level of Price or Cueto. At 29, Zimmermann has youth on his side, but this year the strikeouts have been lacking and he’s allowed ten hits per nine innings. I wouldn’t want to go five or six years at $20MM+ for him. His market could be weird – his age should get him a better deal than James Shields, but he’s not going to be at the status Lester was.
8. Yoenis Cespedes. Cespedes has been raking in the last month, and his 2.8 wins above replacement on the season ranks first among all free agent hitters. He’ll be just 30 in October, and could ascend a few more spots up these rankings with a strong second half. Bonus: he’s ineligible for a qualifying offer.
9. Ian Desmond. Desmond’s 2015 season has been a disaster so far. If he finishes the season as a replacement level player, how can a team place a value on him? One-year contracts have not been in vogue lately, even for free agents coming off disappointing seasons, but that might be best for Desmond.
10. Jeff Samardzija. The results haven’t been there for Samardzija, who sports a 4.53 ERA and has allowed 10.5 hits per nine innings. This month alone, he’s allowed 10+ hits in three different starts. But you have to wonder if Chicago’s defense has something to do with his .338 batting average on balls in play, and maybe he’d be a 3.50 ERA workhorse on a different team. A trade seems inevitable, giving Samardzija a chance at a midseason do-over.
Matt Wieters made his season debut on June 5th, having recovered from Tommy John surgery performed a year prior. The 29-year-old has looked good in a brief sample, serving as catcher in 11 of the Orioles’ 19 games. He’s definitely a free agent to monitor in the coming months. Wieters’ teammate and fellow impending free agent Chris Davis has also been playing well of late. On the pitching side, Yovani Gallardo, A.J. Burnett, and Scott Kazmir have been on a roll.
HoopsRumors.com Has The NBA Offseason Covered
Thursday’s draft will touch off a wild few weeks of movement around the NBA, with free agency starting next week and trade talks heating up. The Lakers are reportedly pushing to deal for DeMarcus Cousins with apparent turmoil in the Kings organization, uncertainty surrounds LaMarcus Aldridge‘s next destination, and the Cavs and Warriors face massive expense if they’re to keep together the rosters that took them to the Finals. Check out our sister site Hoops Rumors to keep up with all of the latest as the NBA offseason reaches its peak!
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New Commenting System At MLBTR
You may have noticed that MLBTR now has a new commenting system. If you had commented at all in 2015 under the old system, you should have received an email with a link to register. If you did not receive an email, feel free to go into the comments section of a post and click the register button. It might take a little while for your first-ever comment to be published, but after that it should be instant.
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I apologize for any short-term bugs or missing features in this new commenting system. In the long-term, an in-house commenting system is the right move for MLBTR, Hoops Rumors, Pro Football Rumors. With a third-party system, we had no control over any aspect. Now, we can integrate and customize as we wish. Development is underway to add comments to our Trade Rumors app, by the way.
We love the discussions you create in the comments section of each post. Please let me know about any bugs with the new system and/or features you’d like to see added. You can leave a comment on this post, send an email through our contact form, or tell me on Twitter @timdierkes. Thanks for your patience and happy commenting!
Apply For Our Statistical Research Project
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Try The Free MLBTR Newsletter
Why not try the free MLBTR email Newsletter? We’ll deliver an exclusive article to your inbox every week – no strings attached! I’ll be weighing in on deals, rumors, and all the hot stove-related topics MLBTR has been known for since I launched the site a decade ago. These articles will be exclusive to MLBTR Newsletter subscribers and will not appear on the website. I may also provide occasional updates on what’s next for MLBTR. It’s completely free.
I’ll be honored if you give us your email address. We will never sell your email address or market anything to the mailing list, and you can unsubscribe easily. My newest post, coming this afternoon, is about trading Sonny Gray. Sign up now! Those of you viewing this post in our app can use this link.
2016 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings
We’re a quarter of the way through the 2015 MLB season, and there’s been significant movement in free agent stocks. It’s time for a new installment of the 2016 Free Agent Power Rankings.
As a reminder, these rankings represent earning power in terms of total contract size, assuming everyone reaches the open market after this season and goes to the highest bidder. Here’s MLBTR’s full list of 2015-16 free agents.
1. Justin Upton. San Diego agrees with Upton, who is on pace for 40 home runs this season. He could surpass his career high of 31 right around his 28th birthday, which is in late August. Oddly, the Padres left fielder has done all his damage so far at Petco Park. Upton will be 3-4 years younger than Robinson Cano and Albert Pujols were when they reached free agency, and he has a chance to top their $240MM contracts.
2. David Price. Price’s ERA at last check-in was 0.40, so it had nowhere to go but up. He’s now at a more mortal 3.40, 22nd among American League qualifiers. It’s probably just an eight-start blip on the radar, but Price’s strikeout and groundball rates are down this year and he’s allowed more than a hit per inning.
3. Johnny Cueto. Is Cueto a better pitcher than Price right now? I’m considering the possibility more seriously. Cueto, who is six months younger than Price, leads all of baseball with 7.23 innings per start. Last year, only Price bettered Cueto’s regular season total of 243 2/3 frames. Cueto is more than a workhorse, though, as he has a 3.03 ERA on the season. He stands a decent chance of being traded by the Reds this summer, making him ineligible for a qualifying offer.
4. Jason Heyward. Heyward is settling in with the Cardinals, batting .273/.343/.398 since we last checked in. That’s in line with his last couple of seasons, but another 10-15 home run campaign isn’t going to get him a monster contract. Just 26 in August, Heyward’s youth and defensive value should still result in a deal worth well over $100MM.
5. Jordan Zimmermann. Zimmermann has shined in the five starts since our last update, bringing his ERA down to 3.66. His skills in this quarter season have faded considerably from last year, though, as his 15.2% strikeout rate would represent a career worst. Again: it’s just eight starts. But a good $50MM hangs in the balance for Zimmermann.
6. Alex Gordon. Gordon had December wrist surgery, but his power production seems fine this year. He’s slugging .472 since we last checked in. Gordon has been hit by a pitch an AL-best nine times, pushing his OBP up to .378. Whatever age-based gap there might be between Gordon and Heyward, Gordon is closing it with a five-plus wins above replacement pace.
7. Zack Greinke. Greinke jumps up two spots this month, as he’s third in the game with a 1.52 ERA. A third consecutive sub-3.00 ERA season should help his earning power, though he owes much of his success this year to an unsustainable .217 batting average on balls in play. It’s a fantastic start to the season regardless. Zimmermann has two and a half years of age on Greinke, but Greinke is the better pitcher right now.
8. Ian Desmond. There’s been nothing redeeming about Desmond’s contract year, which has been replacement level so far. This was a guy in the running for the best shortstop in baseball from 2012-14, but in 2015 his numbers are way down. He’s been hitting like Jean Segura, and he’s on pace for baseball’s first 40-error season since Jose Offerman in 1992. Desmond will still do fine financially, as he faces little competition on the shortstop market.
9. Yoenis Cespedes. Cespedes’ biggest problem has been readily apparent in 2015, as his 3.1% walk rate is tenth-worst among qualified hitters. That has contributed to a .290 OBP. I think Cespedes’ power still makes him a top-75 hitter in MLB, but he hasn’t been in the last calendar year.
10. Jeff Samardzija. Little has gone right in Samardzija’s eight starts for the White Sox. He’s whiffed only 17% of batters, and his groundball rate has taken a tumble. His skills back up a 4.00+ ERA. The 30-year-old righty is as good a bet as anyone on this list to be traded this summer. If Samardzija continues to struggle, he could be out of the top ten next month.
Cubs center fielder Dexter Fowler is pushing for a spot on this list, with a .269/.352/.428 line and improved defense. He doesn’t turn 30 until March, but has to be penalized for an injury history that hasn’t allowed him to play in 120+ games since 2012. Howie Kendrick, Denard Span, Adam Lind, Colby Rasmus, and ageless hurlers Aaron Harang and A.J. Burnett are among the other free agents off to strong starts.