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Orioles, Jose Bautista Have Been In Contact

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Even though Orioles general manager Dan Duquette called free agent right fielder Jose Bautista “a villain in Baltimore” at last month’s Winter Meetings, the executive has been in touch with the longtime Blue Jay’s camp this offseason, according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network (Twitter link).

The degree of the Orioles’ interest in Bautista is unclear (FanRag’s Jon Heyman reported earlier this month that it’s nonexistent), but it’s known that the team is looking for another outfielder, as Duquette indicated last week. Given that negotiations with free agent Mark Trumbo don’t seem to be leading anywhere, the club is also on the hunt for a big bat. Bautista would fill those needs more than other recently Orioles–linked names like Chris Carter, Pedro Alvarez and Brandon Moss, though he’d certainly come at a higher price tag than anyone from that group.

The Orioles would lose a first-round pick if they were to sign Bautista (they would get a later selection as compensation for Trumbo’s exit), but the argument for a bold short-term maneuver like adding him is that they’re built to win now. Third baseman Manny Machado, closer Zach Britton, center fielder Adam Jones and starter Chris Tillman each have two or fewer years of team control remaining, meaning Baltimore’s window to compete for a championship could be on the verge of closing.

Bautista would perhaps help keep the Orioles’ contention chances alive in the near term, but it’s worth noting that the 36-year-old’s only real asset at this point is his bat, which was ordinary by his lofty standards in 2016. In a season limited on account of multiple disabled list stints, Bautista hit .234/.366/.452 in 517 plate appearances – down from the remarkable .268/.390/.555 slash he compiled in 3,604 PAs from 2010-15.

While Bautista clearly wasn’t great in any facet last season, he was still easily above average at the plate and would make up for Trumbo’s absence with aplomb. The right-handed hitter would also provide the Orioles a third credible offensive corner outfielder, joining lefty-swingers Seth Smith and Hyun Soo Kim, as well as a far more established DH option than Trey Mancini.

AL Notes: Carter, A’s, Twins, Falvey, Mariners, La O

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Here’s the latest from around the American League…

  • In an interview with Jim Bowden and Jim Duquette on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (partial audio link), agent Dave Stewart said he had spoken to “four or five teams” about client Chris Carter, including the Rangers and Orioles.  The Athletics haven’t been in touch with Stewart, as the A’s gave the impression that they have moved on from Carter, who played in Oakland from 2010-12.  Stewart doesn’t anticipate Carter signing within the next week or so, as the market for first base/DH types is still rather unsettled, even a few weeks after Edwin Encarnacion signed with the Indians.
  • The Twins have had a fairly quiet offseason, though chief baseball officer Derek Falvey expects more activity for both his club and others as Spring Training approaches, Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune writes.  “If an opportunity presents itself, we’ll be ready to strike,” Falvey said.  “The reality is, we’re standing here today with players still available in free agency that I don’t think any of us would have predicted in October.  Things change.”
  • With Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto saying that his team’s major offseason moves are complete, Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune looks how Seattle’s 25-man roster could break down, with relatively few spots still available to be decided in Spring Training battles.
  • The Rangers’ $110K signing of Cuban infielder Luis Yander La O could end up being a bargain, Baseball America’s Ben Badler opines.  La O spent almost a full year in free agency before “signing for far less money than other Cuban players who have received bigger bonuses despite having less talent,” Badler writes.  Multiple changes in representation could be one reason for La O’s longer-than-expected stint on the open market, though Badler notes that many scouts see him as a utilityman rather than a potential everyday player.  Still, at the cost of just a $110K bonus, the Rangers are taking little risk in La O’s future.

AL East Notes: Price, Neander, Tillman, Blue Jays

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David Price wasn’t satisfied with his first season in a Red Sox uniform, telling Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe that “last year was the first time in my career I didn’t have fun when I was on the field.”  Price’s 2016 season (3.99 ERA, 8.9 K/9, and 4.56 K/BB rate over a league-best 230 innings) counts as a down year only by his high standards, though the southpaw did post a career-high 1.17 HR/9 and he struggled in his only postseason start.  Price signed a seven-year, $217MM contract with the Sox last winter, and while that deal contains an opt-out clause after the 2018 campaign, Price said he will remain in Boston throughout the life of the contract.  Even if Price delivers better numbers in 2017-18, he’ll be entering his age-33 season when he’s officially faced with the decision to opt out, which could make it hard for him to top the $127MM he’s already slated to earn from the Sox from 2019-2022.

Here’s more from around the American League East…

  • Speaking to Jim Bowden and Jim Duquette on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (Twitter link), Rays GM Erik Neander says his team “will continue to have an open mind” about moving another starting pitcher.  Trade rumors have swirled around Tampa’s rotation all winter, seemingly culminating in the deal that sent Drew Smyly to the Mariners earlier this week.  Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi and Alex Cobb also drew interest, so it’s not out of the question that the Rays would deal another starter if they can score a significant return.
  • In a recent radio interview with 105.7 The Fan (hat tip to MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko), Chris Tillman reiterated that he would love to sign an extension to remain with the Orioles.  There doesn’t appear to be much progress in talks between the two sides (“I haven’t heard anything, I haven’t seen anything,” Tillman said), though the right-hander did note that he lets his agent handle business negotiations until late in the process.  The O’s began preliminary talks with Tillman’s representation last month, and Kubatko figures more serious discussions will take place during Spring Training to see if a deal can be reached before Opening Day.  Tillman avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $10.05MM deal for 2017, and he is eligible for free agency next winter.
  • The Blue Jays’ rotation enjoyed an unusual amount of good health in 2016, Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star writes, and such durability will probably be hard to replicate this season.  With the Jays short on depth options, it opens the door for top prospects Sean Reid-Foley or Conner Greene to emerge as potential late-season call-ups.

AL Notes: Park, Trumbo, Bass

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Twins first baseman Byung Ho Park’s season ended in August after a wrist injury that required surgery, but he’s now able to work out without restrictions and he has returned to batting practice, Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press writes. Park, formerly one of the top power hitters in the KBO, will try to bounce back from a disappointing first season in the Majors in which he batted .191/.275/.409 and struck out 80 times in 244 plate appearances. The Twins owe him a total of $9.25MM through 2019. Here are a couple more quick notes from the American League.

  • A couple details on Mark Trumbo’s market — first, Peter Gammons tweets that the Orioles’ previously reported offer to Trumbo was for three years $40MM, not $50MM-plus. That’s a relatively small offer for a player who swatted 47 home runs last season, but perhaps it’s somewhat reflective of the evident change in the market for one-dimensional sluggers, many of whom linger in free agency. A second, and perhaps related, tidbit is that the Athletics don’t seem likely to be key players in the Trumbo market, as John Hickey of the Bay Area News Group writes. The A’s strongly pursued Edwin Encarnacion, but it doesn’t appear they’re as interested in Trumbo, to whom they were connected last week.
  • Free agent righty Anthony Bass has been in contact with five or six teams, and the Tigers are among them, MLB.com’s Jason Beck tweets. Bass would prefer an opportunity to start, but he is also open to pitching out of the bullpen. It’s probably unlikely he’ll get a chance to do either in the Major Leagues right away — the 29-year-old is coming off a decent but not overwhelming season with the Nippon Ham Fighters in Japan, for whom he posted a 3.65 ERA, 6.2 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9 over 103 2/3 innings. He last appeared in the big leagues in 2015 with the Rangers.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: American League

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The deadline for players and teams to exchange arbitration figures has come and gone, and there have been dozens of agreements broken throughout the league today. So many, in fact, that I’ve split the list up into a pair of league-specific posts to avoid having 100-something names in this list. You can see all the NL players here, and both of these will be updated as quickly as we’re able.

Many teams use the arbitration exchange as a hard deadline for negotiations on one-year deals — a “file and trial” approach which effectively means that once figures are exchanged, the only option they’ll pursue before a hearing is a multi-year deal. (The Mets and Orioles are both adopting that approach this year, and other teams to use that strategy in the past include Astros, Blue Jays, Braves, Marlins, Rays, White Sox, Pirates, Reds and Nationals.)

The most significant arb agreements of the day have been snapped off into their own posts already. We’ll continue adding the smaller-scale agreements from the American League right here (all projections referenced are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, and all arbitration agreements and filings can be monitored in MLBTR’s 2017 Arbitration Tracker)…

  • The Rangers have announced agreement on a deal to avoid arbitration with lefty Jake Diekman. With today’s deadline having passed, the sides did exchange figures — $3.1MM versus $1.9MM — but obviously were already nearing a number. The high-powered southpaw projected at $2.6MM, and will receive $2.55MM, per Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram (via Twitter).
  • The Mariners announced that they’ve avoided arb with all eight of their eligible players, which includes Jean Segura (reported last night), Danny Valencia, Jarrod Dyson, Leonys Martin, Drew Smyly, James Paxton, Evan Scribner, Nick Vincent. Numbers aren’t all in yet, but Valencia took home $5.55MM, per FanRag’s Robert Murray (on Twitter). Martin will earn $4.85MM, per Heyman. They were projected at $5.3MM and $6.3MM, respectively. Meanwhile, Dyson gets $2.8MM, Heyman tweets, which lands just over his $2.5MM projection. Smyly will receive $6.85MM — right at his $6.9MM projection — while Scribner gets $907,500, per MLB.com’s Greg Johns (via Twitter). Meanwhile, Paxton will land at $2.35MM and Vincent will receive $1.325MM, per Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune (via Twitter), both of which fall shy of their respective projections ($2.7MM and $1.5MM).
  • Catcher Martin Maldonado will receive $1.725MM from the Angels, per Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register (via Twitter). That’s just over his $1.6MM projection.
  • The Tigers announced that they settled with third baseman Nick Castellanos. He projected at $2.8MM, but will receive $3MM, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter).
  • Jeremy Jeffress and Jurickson Profar have each avoided arbitration with the Rangers, per Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegarm (via Twitter). Jeffress receives $2.1MM, while Profar will receive $1.005MM. Also of note, the Jeffress deal includes incentives that can add up to $250K in incentives, per Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). He’ll get $50K apiece upon reaching 55, 60, 65, and 70 innings. He had projected for a $2.9MM salary, but his legal issues late last year certainly dented his bargaining power.
  • The Athletics have avoided arbitration with catcher/DH Stephen Vogt, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports on Twitter. Vogt will receive $2.965MM, falling shy of his $3.7MM projection. Oakland has also reached agreement with starter Sonny Gray for $3.575MM, per Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter), which is just shy of his $3.7MM projection. Also, reliever Liam Hendriks has agreed to terms, per John Hickey of the Mercury News. He’ll get $1.1MM, per Heyman (via Twitter).
  • Righty Adam Warren will get $2.29MM from the Yankees, per Baseball America’s Josh Norris (via Twitter). That’s just a shade under his $2.3MM projection. New York also announced deals with shortstop outfielder Aaron Hicks and lefty Tommy Layne, among other players whose arrangements were previously reported. Layne receives $1.075MM, per MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch (via Twitter).
  • The Orioles have avoided arbitration with second baseman Jonathan Schoop, per Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com (Twitter links). He’ll receive $3.475MM, just over his projection of $3.4MM.
  • Adding to their previously reported deals, the Red Sox have announced agreement with all but two of their arb-eligible players. Salaries were reported by MLB.com’s Ian Browne for the players avoiding arb: shortstop Xander Bogaerts gets $4.5MM ($5.7MM projection), utilityman Brock Holt receives $1.95MM ($1.7MM projection), righty Joe Kelly will earn $2.8MM ($2.6MM projection), catcher Sandy Leon takes home $1.3MM (the same as his projection), lefty Robbie Ross gets $1.825MM (just $25K over his projection), and new righty Tyler Thornburg will earn $2.05MM (just under his $2.2MM projection).
  • Two moreplayers have avoided arbitration with the White Sox, per Dan Hayes of CSN Chicago (via Twitter). Among those not previously reported, starter Miguel Gonzalez gets $5.9MM and reliever Zach Putnam receives $1.175MM. That clearly indicates that Gonzalez and the Sox utilized his prior-years’ arb starting points, rather than his much lower earnings with the team last year. Putnam, meanwhile, had projected for $975K.

Earlier Updates

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Orioles Avoid Arbitration With Britton, Machado, Tillman

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1:48pm: The Orioles and Tillman have also avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $10.05MM deal, tweets Dan Connolly of BaltimoreBaseball.com.

12:20pm: Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun reports that Manny Machado also avoided arb with an $11.5MM deal (Twitter link). That checks in $300K north of his projection from Swartz.

11:11am: The Orioles and superstar closer Zach Britton have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a hefty $11.4MM salary for the 2017 season, reports Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith (on Twitter). The Scott Boras client’s salary is an exact match with the $11.4MM projection of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. Britton will be arb-eligible once more next winter before becoming a free agent after the 2018 season.

Britton, 29, is coming off one of the most dominant seasons of any reliever in history. One of the best relievers in baseball (and arguably the best), Britton led the American League in saves with 47 and posted a comically low 0.54 ERA with 9.9 K/9 against 2.4 BB/9 in 67 innings of work. He also posted an outrageous 80 percent ground-ball rate that is the highest mark in Major League history of any qualified starter or reliever dating back to 2002 when the stat was first tracked.

As can be seen in MLBTR’s 2017 Arbitration Tracker, Britton was one of nine Orioles players that’s eligible for arbitration. The team has six players remaining, in the form of Kevin Gausman, Chris Tillman, Brad Brach, Jonathan Schoop, Caleb Joseph and T.J. McFarland.

Arbitration Breakdown: Zach Britton

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Over the last few days, I have been discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. 2017 projections are available right here.

Zach Britton had a phenomenal 2016 campaign for the Orioles, logging 47 saves and a 0.54 ERA over 67 innings while striking out 74 batters. As a result, the dominant sinkerballer is projected for a $4.65MM raise, from $6.75MM to $11.4MM. It is rare to find a season as dominant as Britton’s 2016, so it is not surprising that he is projected to get a raise bigger than Mark Melancon’s record $4.25MM raise last year for a third-time-eligible reliever.

Aug 28, 2016; Bronx, NY, USA; Baltimore Orioles relief pitcher Zach Britton (53) pitches against the New York Yankees during the ninth inning at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Melancon saved 51 games in his platform season, four more than Britton, but his 2.23 ERA is far less impressive than Britton’s 0.54. His 62 punchouts also fell shy of Britton’s 74. Therefore, his $4.25MM raise is a plausible floor for Britton already. Britton besting this by $400K, as the model expects, seems reasonable.

Jim Johnson in 2013 got a $3.88MM raise, the second highest for a third time eligible reliever behind Melancon. He had 51 saves and a 2.49 ERA, so he also meets the criteria of logging a few more saves than Britton while posting a decidedly worse ERA.

However, since Melancon did save four more games, it is worth looking to see if guys with low ERAs but slightly fewer saves did any worse than Melancon did. Looking for guys with ERAs under 2 that were closers, no names emerge in the last five years other than Aroldis Chapman, who had 33 saves and a 1.63 ERA, but only got a $3.27MM raise. Clearly, every aspect of Britton’s case is much stronger than was Chapman’s, so this is not too concerning.

Heath Bell in 2011 is probably a stale comparable, although he did have a sub-2 ERA (he posted a 1.93 ERA) and he matched Britton’s 47 saves exactly. His $3.5MM raise would almost certainly be a floor for Britton as well.

Putting it all together, there is little reason to use any comparable other than Melancon here. All other potential third-time eligible relievers got smaller raises and had worse performances. Britton should easily clear Melancon’s $4.25MM number, and the model’s $4.65MM projected raise seems as reasonable as anything. Because Baltimore is now moving to a “file-and-trial” approach, though, the stakes are raised as the sides try to work out an agreement on the heels of Britton’s historic season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Mets, Orioles To Employ “File-And-Trial” Arbitration Approach

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The Mets and Orioles will adopt a “file-and-trial” approach to their arbitration-eligible players this year, as Marc Carig of Newsday (via Twitter) and Eduardo Encina of the Baltimore Sun (also on Twitter) report. That means that the organizations will only negotiate with players up until tomorrow’s 1pm EST deadline to exchange filing figures; if no deal is found with a given player, they’ll take the case to arbitration.

MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes explained the “file-and-trial” stance a few years back. Some organizations adopt it as a blanket rule, with at least some of those willing to make exceptions only in cases of multi-year arrangements. Others will utilize it on a case-by-case basis, notifying certain players of that intention in the course of negotiations.

It’s always tough to keep tabs on precisely which teams utilize this strategy, and it can certainly change — especially with front office turnover. At last check, though, file-and-trial teams include the Astros, Blue Jays, Braves, Marlins, Rays, and White Sox.  And there are at least five others that seem to take that approach with some players: the Brewers, Indians, Nationals, Pirates, and Reds.

By adopting this approach, the New York and Baltimore organizations have turned up the heat on their final talks with arb-eligible players. As things stand, the O’s have yet to reach terms with a variety of notable players, led by Zach Britton, Manny Machado, Chris Tillman, Kevin Gausman, and Jonathan Schoop. The club also has to work out salaries with Brad Brach and Caleb Joseph. It’s not an easy season for the Mets, either; they have yet to settle with Addison Reed, Jeurys Familia, Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom, Wilmer Flores, Travis d’Arnaud, and Josh Edgin.

As always, you can view MLBTR’s arbitration projects right here, and track the players who have and haven’t agreed to terms with our arbitration tracker.

Orioles Avoid Arbitration With Ryan Flaherty, T.J. McFarland

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7:41pm: Righty T.J. McFarland has also agreed to terms, Jon Heyman of Fan Rag tweets. He’ll earn $685K in 2017, just shy of his $700K projection.

6:35pm: The Orioles have avoided arbitration with infielder Ryan Flaherty, according to Dan Connolly of BaltimoreBaseball.com (via Twitter). He’ll earn $1.8MM and become the first arb-eligible Oriole to settle this year.

Flaherty will take home just a shade more than the $1.7MM that MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz projected. The 30-year-old made just 176 MLB plate appearances in 2016 and managed only three home runs, limiting his earning power in his final run through arbitration.

Of course, Baltimore values Flaherty primarily as a versatile bench piece. He’s capable of playing all over the infield, including shortstop when necessary. And though he has never produced much at the plate, Flaherty has typically rated well as a baserunner.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Trumbo, Orioles, Mallex, Kiermaier, Twins, Gohara

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In his latest notes column, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports provides some new twists in the ongoing saga between Mark Trumbo and the Orioles. Trumbo reportedly rejected a four-year proposal worth more than $50MM earlier this offseason, and Rosenthal hears that he recently asked Baltimore for a three-year deal worth about $50MM. Since that request, Trumbo’s camp has indicated a willingness to take an offer between $40-50MM over three years, he continues. As Rosenthal notes, Trumbo does have interest elsewhere. But, the Rockies would have to move an outfielder and shift Ian Desmond off of first base to facilitate a signing, while the Rangers are currently engaged with Mike Napoli and have suggested on multiple occasions this winter that major free-agent signings aren’t in the cards due to financial reasons.

As always, I’d encourage readers to check out Rosenthal’s column in full. Here are a few more highlights…

  • The Orioles are interested in re-signing Pedro Alvarez to slot in as their DH and replace some of the lost production if Trumbo signs elsewhere. It’s been a quiet market for Alvarez (and most first base/DH types) thus far, but the soon-to-be 30-year-old slugger enjoyed a strong season against right-handed pitching with the O’s in 2016. Last year, “El Toro” batted .249/.322/.504 with 22 homers on the season as a whole. That line includes a dismal .243/.293/.378 showing in a small sample of 41 plate appearances against left-handers. In 334 PAs against righties, Alvarez slashed .251/.326/.522 with 21 of his 22 big flies. From my vantage point, the O’s could use another left-handed stick in their lineup, as right now only Seth Smith, Hyun Soo Kim and Chris Davis project as regulars in the lineup, and Ryan Flaherty is the only lefty on the bench. Adding a switch-hitter like Angel Pagan to handle one outfield slot and moving Smith to a DH platoon with either Christian Walker or Trey Mancini makes a fair amount of sense as well, in my eyes. The O’s are also eyeing left-handed relievers and rotation depth, per Rosenthal.
  • The Mariners tried to acquire Mallex Smith from the Braves on multiple occasions this offseason and had talks with Atlanta about him as recently as last Friday. However, Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto swung a deal for Jarrod Dyson, instead. Dipoto and the Mariners still saw value in Smith and knew the Rays had interest in him as a potential component in a Drew Smyly trade, so Dipoto circled back with Atlanta counterpart John Coppolella over the weekend to get talks rolling once again. (As an aside, Rosenthal counts a staggering 35 trades for Dipoto since taking over as Seattle’s GM in Sept. 2015. Thanks for always keeping us busy, Jerry.)
  • Despite the fact that the Rays now have a fair amount of center-field depth in Smith, Kevin Kiermaier and newly signed Colby Rasmus, a Tampa Bay source tells Rosenthal it’s “very unlikely” that they’ll move Kevin Kiermaier in a trade. Kiermaier won’t turn 27 until April, is controlled through the 2020 campaign and is arguably the game’s top defensive player, making him a highly valuable asset. Defensive metrics are obviously an inexact science, but Defensive Runs Saved pegs Kiermaier at a ludicrous +68 runs in his 2346 Major League innings in center field (and another +13 in his limited corner work). Ultimate Zone Rating has him at +44 in center and +16 in the corners. On top of that, he’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to make an eminently affordable $2.1MM in his first trip through arbitration as a Super Two player this winter. He’s also a plus baserunner, and his bat has been slightly above the league average in his career, as he’s a .258/.313/.425 hitter (105 OPS+ and wRC+).
  • Despite possessing options at first base and DH, the Twins are keeping tabs on right-handed hitters in that market in the event that a bargain arises. Minnesota has the well-compensated but declining Joe Mauer at first base as well as former KBO superstar Byung Ho Park and switch-hitter Kennys Vargas as options at first and DH. Mauer’s full no-trade clause and $23MM salary means he won’t be going anywhere, and Park’s contract is affordable enough that it makes sense to see if he can rebound after a strong start to the 2016 season was derailed by a wrist injury that ultimately required season-ending surgery. Vargas, meanwhile, has shown flashes of potential (particularly as a right-handed hitter) but has yet to cement himself in the Majors. Rosenthal’s report meshes with recent rumors that have connected the Twins to Jose Bautista, though it seems that Minnesota is only open to jumping into that market at a certain price point. It strikes me as unlikely that any of Bautista, Trumbo or Mike Napoli would see his market reach that point.
  • In a separate column, Rosenthal writes that while he received some negative feedback from scouts on the Mariners’ decision to move left-handed pitching prospect Luiz Gohara in yesterday’s trades with the Braves (and then the Rays), Seattle may have been more willing to part with the 20-year-old due to medical concerns. The would-be Zack Cozart trade from this past trade deadline fell apart due to the Reds’ concerns over Gohara’s shoulder, Rosenthal hears. Certainly, Atlanta is comfortable enough with Gohara’s shoulder, and GM John Coppolella suggested to Rosenthal that he’s not afraid to move on from a trade due to medical reasons. “We have had to walk away from two trades this offseason because of failed medicals,” said Coppolella. “We feel good about the health of [Gohara and left-hander Thomas Burrows].”
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