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Offseason Outlook: Baltimore Orioles

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With several key players hitting the free agent market and areas of need all over the diamond, the Orioles’ roster could look significantly different come Opening Day.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Adam Jones, OF: $49MM through 2018
  • J.J. Hardy, SS: $28.5MM through 2017 (includes $2MM buyout of $14MM club option for 2018; option vests based on plate appearances)
  • Ubaldo Jimenez, SP: $26.5MM through 2017

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections by MLB Trade Rumors)

Free Agents

The Orioles have one of the most distinguished free agent classes of any team, and yet even with all of these notables hitting the open market, Adam Jones sees it as an opportunity.  “It’s going to be exciting to see what goes on this offseason because I know when you have a lot of free agents that means you have a lot of money to spend,” Jones told the Baltimore Sun’s Dan Connolly in a late-season interview.  “And so, hopefully, I can influence some officials to spend a little bit of that money.”

Since Dan Duquette took over as executive VP of baseball operations in late 2011, the Orioles have indeed shown an increased willingness to spend, going from an $84MM Opening Day payroll in 2012 to just under the $119MM mark for last season’s opener.  A nice chunk of that increase has gone to Jones himself via his six-year, $85.5MM extension, which is still the largest contract in O’s franchise history.  The Orioles may well have to break that record in order to re-sign some of their own top free agents or add major talents to replace those departing stars, which also means overcoming a well-documented wariness to long-term free agent deals.

First, the good news for the Orioles and their fans.  Manny Machado was healthy and had a superstar year, Jones continued to produce, Jonathan Schoop broke out as an everyday second baseman, Ubaldo Jimenez had a solid bounce-back campaign and Zach Britton cemented himself as a reliable closer while headlining one of the game’s better bullpens last season.  Combine these with former fourth overall pick Kevin Gausman, who is now established as a full-time starter, and there are worse building blocks to have in place for a team looking to reload as an AL East contender.

The problem, however, is that these are also pretty much the only areas of relative certainty amidst a very unsettled Orioles roster.  It’s possible that the O’s will have openings at first base (Chris Davis), setup man (Darren O’Day), right field (Gerardo Parra), catcher (Matt Wieters) and at the front of the rotation (Wei-Yin Chen).

Let’s begin with the rotation, as it stands out as an area of need even if Chen returns  — a seemingly unlikely scenario, according to several pundits.  Beyond Jimenez and Gausman, Chris Tillman and Miguel Gonzalez are likely to be back despite rough seasons that saw their ERAs catch up to their generally unimpressive career advanced metrics.  It was poor timing for the arb-eligible pitchers, who failed to maximize their earning power. Assuming the Orioles bring them back, a total of $11.1MM in combined arbitration earnings is a very good price for two innings-eaters (though obviously Baltimore hopes the two can deliver more than just innings next year).  If not, Tillman and Gonzalez could both potentially be non-tender candidates come next winter as their price tags keep rising.

A more aggressive move would be for the Orioles to non-tender Gonzalez (the less established of the two) this winter and replace him with one of Tyler Wilson or Mike Wright.  This frees up more money to pursue a true top-of-the-rotation starter, and there’s no shortage of big-name aces on the market this winter.  Baltimore could also tender Tillman and Gonzalez and then trade one or both to open a rotation spot, though they’d certainly be selling low on either pitcher.

Of course, the O’s have been particularly hesitant to spend big on pitching.  Jimenez’s four-year, $50MM deal is the largest contract the team has ever given to a pitcher, and that’s probably one Duquette would like to have back given Jimenez’s up-and-down performance through two seasons.  It’s probably safe to assume that David Price and Zack Greinke are out of Baltimore’s price range.  Jordan Zimmermann or Johnny Cueto would command a deal worth at least twice Jimenez’s price tag, and any of the names in the second and third tiers of the free agent pitching market (Chen himself, Mike Leake, Jeff Samardzija, Yovani Gallardo, Ian Kennedy) are all good bets to exceed Jimenez’s number.

Could the Orioles deal for an ace?  They may not have the trade chips available given their thin farm system, which could be even more lacking given Dylan Bundy’s ongoing shoulder problems.  The former top prospect is out of options, so while he could still emerge as a secret weapon if healthy, he’ll have only a short window in the Arizona Fall League and Spring Training to prove he’s fit.

Expect the O’s to look at Scott Kazmir, Marco Estrada, J.A. Happ or any other quality starters who posted Chen-like numbers in 2015 but could be signed on shorter-term deals than the four or even five years that Chen could command.  Simply replacing Chen, of course, doesn’t solve Baltimore’s overall pitching issues.  Either owner Peter Angelos shows a greater willingness to spend on free agent arms or else the Orioles will again be relying on a lot of things to go right for their incumbent starters.

The same question of spending also applies to Davis, who is projected by MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes to land a six-year, $144MM contract this offseason.  Unlike the free agent pitching market, this winter’s list of available first basemen isn’t star-studded, so there’s no easy way to make up Davis’ 47 home runs.  Someone like Adam Lind (if the Brewers either don’t pick up his option or look to trade him) could be at least a passable replacement; while Lind isn’t an everyday option since he can’t hit left-handed pitching, he could be platooned with prospect Christian Walker, a right-handed bat.  The Orioles could also look to trade for a similar left-handed first baseman like Ryan Howard or Adam LaRoche, or sign a potential non-tender candidate such as Pedro Alvarez or Logan Morrison. The soon-to-be-posted Byung-ho Park could also be a consideration. After all, Baltimore has dabbled in the Korean market in recent years (e.g., Suk-min Yoon) and successfully nabbed Chen from Taiwan.

Filling that gap at first base would open the door for the Orioles to replace Davis’ power with a big corner outfield bat, though names like Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes, Jason Heyward would again require huge financial commitments.  Baltimore’s only current corner outfield options are David Lough, Nolan Reimold and Junior Lake, so it’s probably no surprise that the team is interested in bringing Parra back to bolster either left or right field.

In late August, MLBTR’s Jeff Todd projected that Parra could earn a 3-4 year deal with an average annual value in the $10-$15MM range, though that was before Parra suffered through a miserable September and finished with only a .625 OPS in his 238 PA as an Oriole.  Even if Parra’s poor finish lowered his price into the three-year/$24MM range, in my opinion Parra may not be worth such a commitment and the O’s could instead use that money on a more consistent free agent bat.

Given the question marks in the corner outfield spots and at first base, re-signing Steve Pearce could be a sneaky-important move for the Orioles given his versatility.  Pearce battled some injuries last season and regressed after his big 2014 campaign, though he still hit 15 homers in 325 PA.  While Pearce’s contract value is somewhat hard to predict, his price tag shouldn’t be all that big, unless the Orioles lose him to a team that can offer more regular playing time than the part-time role he’d likely receive in Baltimore.

Beyond the headline names on the free agent outfield market, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Orioles made runs at signing Ben Zobrist or Colby Rasmus, both of whom drew interest from Baltimore last winter.  Since the O’s prefer shorter-term free agent deals in general, both could be good fits — Rasmus has said he may not want to play longer than a few more seasons, while Zobrist is entering his age-35 season and may not command too lengthy a contract.  (Though a four-year deal isn’t out of the question for Zobrist since his versatility is expected to draw a large amount of interest in his services.)

As mentioned, the Orioles had a pretty strong bullpen last season.  While O’Day’s great numbers were a big part of that success, Baltimore could withstand his departure by elevating someone like Brad Brach to the setup role.  The O’s could also explore a pretty strong setup reliever market, looking at the likes of Mark Lowe, Tony Sipp or Shawn Kelley to replace O’Day (who may earn the largest contract of any relief pitcher this offseason), or perhaps go with lower-cost options.

The O’s also have a replacement for Wieters in the form of Caleb Joseph, who only hit .234/.299/.394 with 11 homers over 355 PA last year but is a solid defender and pitch-framer.  There’s been speculation that Wieters might not even be issued a qualifying offer by the Orioles in the wake of his disappointing 2015 season, as the catcher struggled both offensively and defensively after returning from Tommy John surgery.

I tend to believe that Wieters would indeed reject a QO if offered.  Firstly, it would be stunning if the first player to accept a qualifying offer was a Scott Boras client given how the agent has so harshly criticized the QO concept.  Secondly, between the thin catching market and Wieters’ star pedigree, he’s sure to find a multi-year deal even in the wake of a tough season.  Baltimore can therefore be pretty confident in issuing Wieters a qualifying offer and at least ensuring themselves a compensatory draft pick if he signs elsewhere.

The Orioles have just under $42MM committed to three players (Jones, Jimenez, J.J. Hardy) for 2016 and MLBTR projects roughly $34.9MM for their 11 arbitration-eligible players, assuming everyone is tendered a contract.  Pre-arb players in regular roles (i.e. Schoop, Gausman, Joseph) will take up a few more roster spots at minimum salaries.  If the 2016 payroll stays in the $119MM range, that leaves Duquette with approximately $42MM to work with this winter.

That’s certainly enough room to add at least one big salary into the mix.  Since Angelos has specifically gone on record as saying the team will try to re-sign Davis, I would guess that if the Orioles are going to break the bank on a signing, it will be for the slugging first baseman since that kind of power is hard to find in today’s game.  The O’s have been more willing to spend on position players (Jones, Hardy, Brian Roberts, Nick Markakis) than on pitchers, so it makes sense that they’d try harder to retain a familiar big bat than they would a free agent ace.

Jones, Jimenez and Hardy are also the only players signed beyond 2016, so the Orioles have space on the books for another long-term commitment.  It seems likely, however, that the O’s will look to the future in another sense by considering extensions for Schoop and possibly Machado, though Duquette has said that a Machado extension isn’t a major priority for this offseason.

This certainly promises to be, by far, the Orioles’ busiest winter under Duquette, as his tenure has been marked more by canny under-the-radar acquisitions  — i.e. Chen, Gonzalez or Pearce — than by flashy trades or free agent signings.  Even the one-year, $8MM signing of Nelson Cruz in February 2014 (Duquette’s most successful free agent deal) was rather a unique circumstance given how Cruz’s market was chilled by a PED suspension and the qualifying offer.

Hardy was the only one of Baltimore’s free agents to re-sign last winter, as the Orioles lost Cruz, Markakis and Andrew Miller to free agency.  The O’s have internal replacements for a few of this winter’s free agents, but another mass exodus would leave the team with simply too many holes to fill.  Duquette will have to be creative and Angelos will have to be willing to go beyond his contractual comfort zone in order to get the Orioles back into playoff contention.  If not…well, if last winter’s free agent 0-fer allegedly led to tension between Duquette and manager Buck Showalter, a repeat performance could result in some front office changes.

Quick Hits: Royals, Lackey, Odor, Brown, D-Backs

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While Alex Gordon is a lock to decline his $14MM player option, he doesn’t want to leave the Royals, writes Jon Heyman of CBS Sports in his latest notes column. “I want to be here,” Gordon told Heyman. “This is like my second home. We love it here … Obviously, things happen … but this is where we want to be.” Of course, Gordon figures to have a chance at a nine-figure contract on the open market if he chooses to test it, and the Royals have never come close to spending that kind of cash on any player before, as MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently pointed out. Heyman also spoke to Johnny Cueto, who acknowledged that his late slide has damaged his free-agent chances. “That’s the way it is,” Cueto said, adding that he hopes he can get some degree of redemption in the World Series. Cueto said adjusting to a new league has played a part in his struggles, but he’s still plenty open to the challenge of signing with an AL club. “The DH isn’t a bad thing,” said Cueto. “I like the challenge.”

More from Heyman’s piece and from around the league…

  • John Lackey may have recently turned 37 years old, but his strong work in 2013-15 has some in the industry thinking that he could land a three-year deal worth $15-20MM annually, Heyman writes. I’d agree that a three-year offer is plausible, though the annual values mentioned by Heyman — especially at the top end of that range — seem pretty aggressive.
  • The Rangers “are expected” to discuss a long-term deal with standout second baseman Rougned Odor following the completion of the World Series, Heyman hears. Odor, still just 21 years old (22 in February), was demoted to the minors earlier this year due to enormous struggles at the plate, but he was among baseball’s most productive middle infielders upon his return to the bigs. Odor went 3-for-3 on June 15 when he was recalled and proceeded to hit .292/.334/.527 with 15 homers through season’s end. Some might assume a bloated BABIP helped to inflate his numbers, but he batted a very sustainable .305 on balls in play after his recall from the minors.
  • The Orioles have “limited interest” in former Phillies outfielder Domonic Brown, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko tweets. It’ll be interesting to see where Brown lands, and what kind of deal he gets. Baltimore would seem, on paper, to be somewhat of a fit for a buy-low corner outfield option, especially if the team’s front office devotes substantial resources to addressing its needs in the rotation and/or re-signing Chris Davis. However, Kubatko’s tweet doesn’t make it seem like Brown is anywhere near the top of Baltimore’s offseason targets.
  • Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic provides an excellent preview of the Diamondbacks’ expected search for starting pitching this offseason. Arizona can’t afford top-tier arms like David Price, Zack Greinke, Johnny Cueto and Jordan Zimmermann, he notes. Many teams will be in that boat, which could push the market for second-tier arms like Mike Leake beyond the D-Backs’ comfort zone. Piecoro calls Lackey a “perfect fit” for the Snakes, noting that his age will cap the number of years Lackey can receive and keep him in Arizona’s comfort range. Among other free agent candidates suggested by Piecoro are Hisashi Iwakuma and Nippon Professional Baseball righty Kenta Maeda, who is expected to be posted this winter. In terms of trade candidates, Piecoro points out that the Indians and D-Backs line up well, as Arizona has plenty of young bats — a big need for Cleveland, which possesses a wealth of young pitching.

Pirates Claim Jorge Rondon

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The Pirates have claimed righty Jorge Rondon off waivers from the Orioles, according to the MLB.com transactions page. Rondon, 27, was designated recently to create 40-man space.

Interestingly, Rondon lost his spot with Baltimore to make way for the team’s claim of fellow right-hander Vance Worley from Pittsburgh. The result is a more-or-less direct swap of those two players.

Rondon carried a 2.23 ERA over 60 2/3 innings at Triple-A last year, with 7.4 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9. He was once rated among the top thirty prospects of the Cardinals, and has a track record of solid, if unspectacular, numbers in the minors.

In a rather small sample at the big league level, though, Rondon has struggled. He allowed ten earned runs in just two appearances in Colorado, and permitted eleven more in his 13 1/3 frames with the O’s. In his 15 1/3 total MLB innings, Rondon has struck out only nine batters while walking ten and surrendering 28 hits.

Cafardo On Murphy, Price, Davis, Cueto

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In today’s column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe spoke with eight major league officials about the players trending up and trending down as free agency approaches.  It probably won’t surprise you to learn that the list of players trending in the right direction starts with Mets second baseman Daniel Murphy.

“Obviously, he’s not going to be as hot as he’s been in the postseason, but he plays positions where his power plays well,” an American League GM told Cafardo. “There are teams like the Dodgers and Yankees who need a second baseman. Others, like the Angels, need a third baseman, where he also plays. He’s going to be sought-after and get a five-year deal at around $75MM. Maybe more.”

Murphy, who can also play at first base, would also have appeal for the attractive to the Orioles, Astros, Padres, and Tigers, Cafardo writes.

Here’s more from today’s column..

  • The feeling is that a seven-year, $210MM deal for David Price would be fair, Cafardo writes, though some are concerned that Price won’t live up to that kind of deal unless he goes somewhere that he’s comfortable. The incumbent Blue Jays could be that place, but the Dodgers, Cardinals, and Cubs are also listed as possibilities.  Price, 30, pitched to a 2.45 ERA with 9.2 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 in 32 regular season starts for the Tigers and Blue Jays this past season.
  • The group of eight anonymous scouts, managers, and GMs polled by Cafardo would not want to give Orioles bopper Chris Davis more than a five-year deal.  Of course, a team out there very well could. “In the heat of the negotiations and fearing someone else will get him, this will likely get beyond what everybody wants. Scott Boras is the agent, so we may be looking at seven years,” one scout remarked.  Recently, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes profiled the two-time home run king and estimated that he’ll be in line for a six-year, $144MM pact.
  • Johnny Cueto had a rough second half after being traded to the Royals and one National League GM told Cafardo that a “few teams have scratched him off their list.”  Still, that GM estimates that Cueto can net a Jon Lester-type $155MM deal.  Recently, we learned that the Red Sox are mulling a serious push for Cueto.  The Marlins also like Cueto, but financial constraints will probably hold them back in that pursuit.
  • One GM told Cafardo that he wouldn’t give Royals outfielder Alex Gordon anything more than a three-year deal at $36MM-$38MM.  In addition to KC, Cafardo recently listed the Indians, Orioles, Mets, Tigers, and possibly the Red Sox as potential fits.
  • Nationals hurler Jordan Zimmermann didn’t have a great season, but he was listed by Cafardo as a player whose arrow is pointing upwards.  One NL scout praised Zimmermann’s work ethic and toughness.  At the end of the regular season, Zimmermann sounded like a player who knows that he’ll be changing teams.
  • One AL GM envisions Blue Jays pitcher Marco Estrada attracting attention from “six or seven teams” who could offer up a “four- or five-year deal in the $12MM-$15MM [per year] range.”  Last month, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk checked in on Estrada’s free agent stock.  The right-hander posted a 3.13 ERA with 6.5 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 across 28 starts and six relief appearances in 2015.
  • Cafardo’s panel indicated that Scott Kazmir could get a three-year deal this offseason, but at a reduced rate because of his struggles with the Astros down the stretch.  The group of eight officials sees Kazmir getting $10-$12MM AAV over a three year period.  The Tigers are among the clubs with interest in the veteran left-hander, though Kazmir has also expressed a desire to return to Houston.
  • At least two teams have their top advisers and scouts looking at Rich Hill’s last four starts with the Red Sox to see if his emergence in 2015 is for real.  One AL scout who has done his homework on the left-hander praised the hurler for his confidence.
  • Cafardo identified the Braves, Dodgers, Rays, Astros, and Mariners as teams that could have interest in Orioles catcher Matt Wieters.  Of course, his market will be impacted by whether or not he receives a qualifying offer.  The Rangers will be among the teams with interest, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com, but only if he does come with a QO attached.  In a recent MLBTR poll, 60% of readers said that the O’s should give Wieters a QO.

AL Notes: V-Mart, Orioles, Roberts, Pomeranz

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The Tigers’ signing of Victor Martinez to a four-year, $68MM contract last offseason was a decision that was largely driven by owner Mike Ilitch rather than former GM Dave Dombrowski, per Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Dombrowski wasn’t in favor of such a lofty number for the aging DH. Heyman adds that the Mariners were outbid on Martinez, which turned out to be a blessing in disguise. Seattle was comfortable going to three years and $45MM for V-Mart but turned its focus to Nelson Cruz after Martinez returned to the Tigers. While it’s unlikely that Cruz’s production will hold up to its current level through the final year of his four-year, $57MM deal, he was brilliant in his first season with the Mariners.

A few more notes from around the American League…

  • The Orioles will “at least kick the tires” on Ben Zobrist this winter, reports Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com, although I’d imagine they’ll be joined by about 20 teams in that pursuit. Nonetheless, Kubatko notes that manager Buck Showalter has long admired Zobrist’s versatility and would love to add him to the fold, and he has fans in the front office as well. The Orioles could find plenty of playing time for Zobrist in the corner outfield.
  • Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun writes that the Orioles will probably look to add a left-handed starter, if not two, to the mix this winter. Baltimore stands to lose Wei-Yin Chen and has no lefty replacements in the waiting, save for perhaps T.J. McFarland, who has made only seven starts (five in the minors and two in the Majors) since 2012. Connolly adds that while there’s interest in retaining Chen, the Orioles aren’t likely to retain him if he receives a five-year offer elsewhere.
  • The Mariners interviewed Padres bench coach Dave Roberts for their managerial opening, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). Roberts received a pair of interviews and was considered a finalist for the job. However, Angels AGM Scott Servais will reportedly be announced as Seattle’s new skipper later today. Rosenthal adds that Roberts could be a fit for the Dodgers, though that suggestion seems at least partially speculative in nature.
  • The Athletics announced on Thursday that lefty Drew Pomeranz underwent clavicle resection surgery, as MLB.com’s Jane Lee writes. The recovery timetable for Pomeranz is set for roughly six weeks, and he’s expected to be ready for Spring Training. As Lee notes, Pomeranz pitched through shoulder troubles for much of the season, and this operation will hopefully alleviate those woes next year. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a $1.3MM salary for Pomeranz in his first run through the arbitration process.

AL East Notes: Gardner, Orioles, Red Sox, Moore

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In his latest Yankees Inbox column, MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch tackles a number of topics, perhaps most notably the possibility of a Brett Gardner trade this winter. Hoch notes that a deal is at least possible, as it might be one of the only ways in which the Yankees can creatively gain some flexibility this winter. With Jacoby Ellsbury and Carlos Beltran locked into the other two outfield spots and Alex Rodriguez blocking Beltran from DH at-bats, there’s little room to make changes on the roster. While Hoch says that “initial indications” are that it won’t be a big-spending winter for the Yankees, moving Gardner could give the team both roster and financial flexibility. Within his column, Hoch also touches on the 2016 plans for Greg Bird and notes that the Yankees aren’t simply going to hand the second base job to Rob Refsnyder in 2016 as they feel he’s still developing from a defensive standpoint.

More from the AL East…

  • Orioles fans will want to check out this column from MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko, as he covers a number of players on the fringes of Baltimore’s 40-man roster and their future with the organization, including Dylan Bundy, Steve Johnson, Nolan Reimold, Steve Clevenger and Jimmy Paredes. Bundy will compete for a spot in the 2016 bullpen, but he’ll be out of options, complicating his future. Johnson drew interest from the Phillies and Mariners last year before re-signing a minor league deal with Baltimore. He could draw trade interest this offseason, Kubatko notes. The Orioles are expected to keep Reimold this offseason, and Clevenger’s defensive improvements have satisfied O’s decision-makers, though he could still be marketed in trades this offseason. Kubatko notes that the O’s had the chance to deal Clevenger at the July trade deadline — he lists the Mariners as an interested party — but hung onto him. Paredes’s future is less certain after a dismal second half, Kubatko writes (in much further detail than I’ve covered here).
  • One rival executive tells Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald that he expects Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski to “blow up the farm system” (as Mastrodonato terms it) and make trades to acquire the front-line pitching Boston desperately needs. “Dave is going to make some moves. He’ll be busy,” the exec told Mastrodonato. Dombrowski said he’s already begun receiving phone calls from other general managers to begin expressing interest in working out deals, Mastrodonato adds.
  • In a second article, Mastrodonato talks to Royals GM Dayton Moore about the interview he had to become the Red Sox general manager one year prior to taking his current post with Kansas City. Moore, who previously oversaw the Braves’ scouting and player development operations, said he actually didn’t have interest in becoming a GM but took the interview after his own boss with the Braves, then-GM John Schuerholz, told him to go through the process. “You’ll learn a ton,” Schuerholz told Moore. Moore was staying at the same hotel as Sox president Larry Lucchino and chairman Tom Werner at the time, so he went through the interview process and found it enjoyable. “That was the first time I started thinking about wanting to become a GM.”

Jurickson Profar, Dylan Bundy To Join Arizona Fall League

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Two of the most heralded prospects in recent memory — Jurickson Profar of the Rangers and Dylan Bundy of the Orioles, both just 22 years of age — are set to participate in the Arizona Fall League after long injury layoffs, according to team announcements.

The news had long been expected for Profar, who was named to the roster already. But he’ll now be activated for the first time, meaning he is no longer on the 60-day DL and will take up a roster spot. Eduardo Encina of the Baltimore Sun reported on Bundy yesterday, explaining that the Orioles want him to see some live action before the spring. Per the team announcement, he’ll take the AFL spot of righty Jon Keller.

Profar did manage a brief rehab stint in the minors already this year, marking his first game action since 2013. He’ll continue to serve as a DH in the AFL as he works to reacclimate his bat even as he continues to get his oft-injured right shoulder in shape for duty in the field. Profar debuted with Texas way back in 2012, when he was just 19 years of age. He owns only a .231/.301/.343 slash in 341 big league plate appearances, but he took all of those in or before his age-20 season.

It’s not yet clear whether and how Profar will factor into the Rangers’ plans for 2015, but he seems on track to do so. Texas still has Elvis Andrus embedded at shortstop and figures to continue utilizing the promising Rougned Odor at second. While an eventual replacement or contributor at short could make sense, it’s far from clear whether Profar will ever again be able to handle the demands of throwing from that position.

Bundy, meanwhile, also debuted in 2012 and has yet to return to the big leagues after suffering a variety of arm ailments. He has made it back for rehab stints in each of the last two seasons, but both times has been shut down after relatively limited action. He was not originally a part of Baltimore’s AFL plans, but will be moved into the competitive league after showing sufficient progress.

This is an important winter for Bundy and the O’s, as he’s out of options for 2016. That means that Baltimore will need to keep its former top prospect on the major league roster out of camp or risk losing him on waivers. While he’s most valued as a future starter, Bundy will obviously need to build back his innings and could feature as a reliever in the near-term.

Free Agent Profile: Chris Davis

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Two-time home run king Chris Davis hits the free agent market for the first time, prior to his 30th birthday.

Strengths/Pros

Davis is the most prolific home run hitter in the game.  He led the Majors with 47 home runs this year, and also topped all hitters with 53 in 2013.  He has blasted 159 home runs since becoming a regular for the Orioles in 2012, most in baseball.  Looking at isolated power, Davis is second only to Bryce Harper this year and second only to Giancarlo Stanton among qualified hitters since 2012.  A left-handed hitter, Davis’ power carries over against same-side pitching.  From 2012-15, no left-handed hitter with at least 600 plate appearances against southpaws can boast of a higher isolated slugging percentage against lefty pitchers.  Davis’ power also extends to all fields, with some of the game’s best ISO figures on balls hit to center field and the opposite field.

Davis is a bona fide middle of the order monster in his prime.  Among free agents, only Yoenis Cespedes can compete with his power, but Cespedes has a less impressive track record as a hitter.  Davis is also selective at the plate, with a 12.5% walk rate that ranked 13th in baseball this year.

Davis is generally regarded as a solid defensive first baseman.  He was above average in the SABR Defensive Index this year and in UZR the last two years.  He also has a touch of versatility, in that he logged 253 1/3 innings in right field this year and 149 1/3 at third base in 2014.

Age is on Davis’ side, as he doesn’t turn 30 until March and is five months younger than Cespedes.  Davis has a good health record, as he hasn’t missed more than a week due to injury since missing 12 games with an oblique strain in early 2014.  He played in 160 games in each of the 2013 and ’15 seasons.

Weaknesses/Cons

All that power comes with tons of strikeouts, as you might expect.  Davis topped all of MLB with a 31.0% strikeout rate in 2015, and was also the game’s strikeout king in 2014 at 33.0%.  Strikeouts affect a player’s batting average, and Davis is hitting .256 since 2012.  Among those with at least 500 games played and 100 home runs since 2012, Davis’ batting average ranks 16th out of 19 players.  So sure, power is a tradeoff, but Edwin Encarnacion and David Ortiz have much higher batting averages (and hence, OBPs) in that time.

With Davis, the biggest elephant in the room is his abysmal 2014 campaign, in which he hit .196/.300/.404 in 525 plate appearances before his season ended with a suspension for his use of Adderall, for which he did not have a therapeutic use exemption.  Davis, who was initially diagnosed with Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder in 2008, reportedly had an exemption for Adderall prior to the 2012 season.  Eduardo A. Encina’s report for the Baltimore Sun from last December says it is believed Davis did not have an exemption for 2012 or 2013, years in which he played well.  So at the least, Davis’ struggles in 2014 can’t be chalked up to ADHD medication, and he’s facing an 80-game suspension if he gets popped again.  Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported in February that Davis received an exemption for a different form of stimulant medicine, Vyvanse, for 2015.

Davis suffered an oblique strain in late April of 2014, which could perhaps be offered as a partial explanation for his struggles that year.  Otherwise, it’s difficult to say why his batting average on balls in play dropped all the way down to .242 that year.  The question a suitor will need to try to answer before locking Davis up is, “Will that happen again?  If so, how soon?”  Looking at some potential comparables, I find more good than bad, such as Carlos Delgado, David Ortiz, and even Jason Giambi.  It is possible for Davis to be a good investment over his age 30-35 seasons.

Davis will be subject to a qualifying offer, so signing him will require draft pick forfeiture.

Personal

Davis was born in Longview, Texas, and resides in Dallas with his wife and daughter in the offseason.  Chris’ nickname is Crush, a play on Kevin Costner’s character Crash Davis in Bull Durham.  ESPN’s Eddie Matz profiled Davis in 2013, revealing a devout southern Baptist with a goofy sense of humor and an affinity for pumping iron.  The article says Davis recommitted to his faith at a down point in his career, after the 2010 season.  After failing to make the Rangers out of Spring Training, Davis told his fiancée he would go to seminary and become a minister or youth pastor if Texas didn’t promote or trade him that year.  Davis did get the call, however, and was later traded to the Orioles with Tommy Hunter for Koji Uehara.

Market

The Orioles have expressed a desire to re-sign Davis, but I believe they’ll be outbid.  The Astros, Mariners, and Padres are a few speculative fits.  There are scenarios where the Angels, Marlins, or Giants could make a play.  A half-dozen additional teams could be added if you’re willing to stretch.  Still, first base doesn’t seem to be an in-demand position this winter, which goes hand-in-hand with the free agent market presenting few interesting alternatives at the position.  Davis’ competition might be more with Cespedes, at the top end of the big bat market.

Expected Contract

Though no established position player received a six-year contract last winter, two non-superstars received seven-year deals the previous winter: Jacoby Ellsbury and Shin-Soo Choo.  Both outfielders are represented by Scott Boras, as is Davis.  Like Davis, Ellsbury and Choo had off-years on their resumes and still reached seven years in free agency.  With Davis, I think it’s a matter of six or seven years.  It’s a close call, but one reason I lean toward six is slugging first base types are generally not thought to age well.  I’m pegging Davis for a six-year, $144MM deal.

AL East Notes: Dickey, Schoop, Orioles, Osuna

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Though R.A. Dickey’s short start yesterday in a hugely important Game 4 of the ALCS led to quite a bit of negativity among Blue Jays fans, Richard Griffin of the Toronto Star opines that his $12MM club option for the 2016 season should still be exercised. Griffin points out that while the reactionary conclusion is to say the team should cut ties with the knuckeballer, that’s irrational. Dickey leads all Major League pitchers in innings dating back to 2012, and he was outstanding in the season’s second half, working to a 2.80 ERA over his final 15 starts. Dickey, in fact, logged a 3.11 ERA across his final 150 1/3 innings, dating back to June 2. Though his strikeout rate in that time (5.5 K/9) leaves plenty to be desired, he also averaged just 2.3 walks per nine innings. Two hundred league-average (or better) innings would be worth the $12MM total of his option, which really boils down to an $11MM decision, since the Jays have to pay him a $1MM buyout even if they’re cutting ties. At one year and $11MM, the Jays should keep Dickey around, especially with David Price, Marco Estrada and Mark Buehrle all potentially departing this winter as free agents.

More from the AL East…

  • Rich Dubroff of CSNMidAtlantic.com feels that while the Orioles have a good deal of needs this offseason with several key free agents possibly departing and holes to plug in the rotation and bullpen, a long-term deal with second baseman Jonathan Schoop should still be on the team’s to-do list. As Dubroff points out, Schoop made offensive strides from a dismal 2014 campaign to 2015. Long one of the organization’s best prospects, Schoop batted .279/.306/.482, and while his plate discipline leaves plenty to be desired, he has quite a bit of pop for a middle infielder. I’ll add that while defensive metrics dinged Schoop this season after loving his glovework in 2014, he also missed nearly three months with a partially torn ligament in his knee, which likely hampered his range.
  • Sticking with the Orioles, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com tweets that the entire coaching staff will return for the 2016 season. Kubatko had previously written that all coaches other than pitching coach Dave Wallace were on board, but he’s now apparently agreed to terms as well.
  • Roberto Osuna has been outstanding this year for the Blue Jays at just 20 years of age, but as Chris Mitchell writes for Fangraphs, it’s far from certain that he’ll build upon that early success. Relievers tend to decline more rapidly than do starters, and many other quality young arms have fizzled out early. There are some more promising examples, as pitchers like Huston Street and Jonathan Broxton have had fairly long and productive careers, and some in-progress careers (such as Drew Storen) that probably can’t yet be evaluated. But the overall historical record isn’t terribly promising. Of course, the comparison sample is small given Osuna’s remarkably young age, and he might well end up back in the rotation before long anyway.

Coaching Notes: Rockies, Mariners, Tigers, Marlins

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Here’s the latest on coaching changes throughout MLB:

  • The Rockies will bring back their entire coaching staff under manager Walt Weiss, Nick Groke of the Denver Post writes. That includes hitting coach Blake Doyle, bench coach Tom Runnells, pitching coach Steve Foster, and bullpen coach Darren Holmes.
  • The Rockies will, however, lose mental skills coach Andy McKay to the Mariners, Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune reports. McKay will reportedly take over for Chris Gwynn as the organization’s farm director. Along with Gwynn, a number of minor-league coaches have also departed, signaling that new GM Jerry Dipoto is changing the way the Mariners develop prospects.
  • Tigers pitching coach Jeff Jones has announced his retirement, James Schmehl of MLive.com notes. The team had previously announced that its entire coaching staff would be back next season, so the moves comes as a bit of a surprise, although perhaps not a huge one — Jones considered retiring after Jim Leyland’s departure in late 2013. In a statement, Jones said he wanted to spend more time with his family.
  • Rangers pitching coach Mike Maddux’s contract expires at the end of the month, Evan Grant of DallasNews.com writes. The team has invited Maddux to return next season, but it’s unclear whether he will. One would think he would attract plenty of attention if he were to become available — Maddux’s tenure in Texas has been successful, and he’s highly respected throughout the game.
  • The Diamondbacks are interviewing pitching coach candidates, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic writes. Bullpen coach Mel Stottlemyre Jr. was expected to be in the mix, but he wants to be closer to his father (who lives in Washington State) as he deals with cancer. The Diamondbacks now believe Stottlemyre is likely to take a position with the Mariners, who have requested permission to interview him. The Diamondbacks say they could consider up to six internal candidates and have requested permission to speak with others outside the organization.
  • Former Cubs manager Rick Renteria has spoken with the Marlins about their managerial job, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes (scroll down). The other known interviewees for the position include Larry Bowa, Manny Acta, Bo Porter, Phil Nevin and Alex Cora.
  • Orioles first base coach Wayne Kirby will be back, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com tweets. Baltimore is working to retain all of its staff and has nearly done so.

Charlie Wilmoth contributed to this post.

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