Reactions To And Effects Of The Chris Davis Deal
Here are a few early notes and takes on slugger Chris Davis‘ new $161MM deal with the Orioles:
- With Davis back in the fold, the Orioles need to address their rotation, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal writes. The O’s have had contact with Yovani Gallardo, but one sticking point there could be the qualifying offer — the Orioles would have had eight of the top 100 picks in the draft had Davis and Matt Wieters departed, but those players’ returns will reduce their total to six. That number would further drop if they were to sign Gallardo.
- Before signing Davis, the Orioles had been in talks with Yoenis Cespedes, but Cespedes was seeking even more money than the $161MM Davis got from the O’s, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko tweets. The Orioles reportedly made an offer to Cespedes in the $90MM range.
- The Davis deal could be “Scott Boras’ most impressive victory over reason yet,” FanGraphs’ Dave Cameron writes. There was a limited market for first basemen and a number of strong hitters left on the market, and Davis’ profile as a slugging, whiff-prone first baseman about to head into his thirties is a very risky one. Also, Davis alone likely won’t push the Orioles into the playoffs next season, and the Orioles don’t seem well positioned for the next few seasons, when they’re likely to reap the most value from his contract.
- Keith Law of ESPN’s take (Insider-only) is somewhat similar to Cameron’s — Law notes that it seems unlikely that the strikeout-prone Davis will continue to produce at 2015 levels, and adds that few teams who might have been able to spend heavily on Davis had the hole at first base the Orioles did. Law also provides his take on the Royals’ deal with Ian Kennedy, which he also isn’t a fan of, given Kennedy homer-allowing tendencies and his underwhelming overall track record.
Players Avoiding Arbitration: Friday
The deadline for teams to exchange arbitration figures with eligible players is 1pm ET today. Dozens of arb agreements figure to flow in over the next few hours, and we’ll keep track of the smaller arb agreements in this post. All projections referenced are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz and can be viewed on the full list of 156 players that filed for arbitration this year. Remember also that you can keep track of everyone that has avoided arbitration by checking out MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker.
Onto the agreements…
- Shortstop Zack Cozart is in agreement with the Reds for an undisclosed sum, per a team announcement. He projected at $2.9MM in his second year of eligibility after a promising start to the 2015 season was cut short by a serious knee injury.
- The Diamondbacks announced that they have avoided arbitration with righty Rubby De La Rosa for an undisclosed sum. He was projected at $3.2MM but, per Jack Magruder of Fanragsports.com (on Twitter), will earn only $2.35MM.
- Reliever Fernando Rodriguez settled with the Athletics for $1.05MM — beneath his projected $1.3MM — per the Associated Press.
- Dodgers infielder Justin Turner will earn $5.1MM next season, Jon Heyman reports on Twitter. That’s just a shade under his $5.3MM projection.
- The Braves settled with reliever Arodys Vizcaino for $897,500, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman tweets. He had a $1.1MM projection entering the fall.
- Both Zach Putnam will earn a $975K salary next year after agreeing with the White Sox, per a club announcement. That’s $175K over the projected arb value of the Super Two.
- The Cardinals settled with first baseman Matt Adams for $1.65MM, Heyman tweets. That’s a small bump over his $1.5MM projections. The team is also in agreement with right-hander Seth Maness, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The Super Two reliever projected at $1.2MM but will receive $1.4MM, per MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch (via Twitter).
- Righty Tom Koehler receives a $3.5MM payday from the Marlins, per Jon Heyman (via Twitter). The team gets a break on the $3.9MM that had been projected. The team also has an agreement with righties David Phelps and Carter Capps, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro tweets. Heyman adds (via Twitter) that Phelps will earn exactly his projected amount of $2.5MM. Capps was predicted to earn $800K, but his salary is yet to be reported.
- The Diamondbacks agreed to a $4.35MM rate with first-year-eligible starter Shelby Miller, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports on Twitter. He had projected at $4.9MM. Notably, Miller comes in just ahead of fellow 3+ service-class pitcher Harvey (who is covered below). Fellow Arizona hurler Patrick Corbin will earn $2.525MM next year, Passan also tweets.
- The Nationals have agreed with infielder Danny Espinosa for $2.875MM, Jon Heyman tweets. He gets a slight bump over his $2.7MM projection in his second season of arb eligibility.
- Nolan Arenado will receive a $5MM salary from the Rockies in his first season of eligibility, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets. That’s exactly what fellow star young third baseman Manny Machado settled for as well, though Arenado was a Super Two. As Swartz explained recently, those two players’ cases may well have been tied together despite some important distinctions. He also explained why Arenado might not reach his sky-high $6.6MM projection in actuality.
- The Orioles have agreed with starter Miguel Gonzalez for $5.1MM, Eduardo Rodriguez of the Baltimore Sun reports on Twitter. Gonzalez projected for $4.9MM.
- Outfielder Chris Coghlan agreed at $4.8MM with the Cubs, MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat tweets. That’s quite a nice increase over his projected $3.9MM. Also agreeing with Chicago was reliever Pedro Strop, who gets $4.4MM, per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times (via Twitter). He had been projected at $4.7MM.
- Both righty Michael Pineda (for $4.3MM) and infielder/outfielder Dustin Ackley ($3.2MM), according to Passan (via Twitter) and Jon Heyman (Twitter link). Those numbers largely track the projected amounts of $4.6MM and $3.1MM, respectively.
- Danny Duffy will play at $4.225MM next year after reaching terms with the Royals, Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com reports (Twitter links). Catcher Drew Butera, meanwhile, will get $1,162,500 from Kansas City. Both represented small bumps over their projected values of $4MM and $1.1MM.
- Marlins closer A.J. Ramos will get $3.4MM in 2016, Heyman reports (Twitter links). Teammate Adeiny Hechavarria, meanwhile, will take down $2.625MM. Both first-year-eligible players went over their projections ($2.8MM and $2.3MM, respectively).
- The Mets will pay $4.325MM to Matt Harvey and $3MM to shortstop Ruben Tejada for 2016, ESPNNewYork.com’s Adam Rubin reports (Twitter links). Harvey approaches, but doesn’t quite reach, his $4.7MM projection. Though he’s still recovering from an unfortunate leg injury suffered during the post-season, Tejada will take home a cool half-million more than had been projected.
- Righty Joe Kelly has agreed with the Red Sox at $2.6MM, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports. He falls a fair sight shy of the $3.2MM that MLBTR projected. Though he reached ten wins on the year, Kelly scuffled to a 4.82 ERA over his 134 1/3 innings.
- Righty Drew Hutchison agreed with the Blue Jays for $2.2MM, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reports on Twitter. He falls short of a $2.6MM projection after a tough 2015 campaign.
- The Tigers have reached terms with shortstop Jose Iglesias for $2.1MM, per another Heyman tweet. The deal also includes some incentives, per the report. That’s a healthy jump up over the $1.5MM projection for the slick-fielding infielder, who did have a strong 2015 season.
- The Mariners announced that they reached agreement with lefty Charlie Furbush and righty Evan Scribner. Furbush will receive $1.7MM, while Scribner will get $807.5K, Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune reports.
- Both shortstop Jean Segura and righty Wily Peralta are under contract with the Brewers, per a team announcement. Segura gets $2.6MM after being projected at $3.2MM, per Heyman (Twitter link). Matt Swartz’s system pegged Peralta at $2.8MM, and that’s exactly what he’ll earn, according to Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (via Twitter).
There are plenty more after the jump:
2016 Arbitration Filing Numbers
MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker is the place to go to see the arbitration contracts agreed upon thus far, as well as the figures exchanged between teams and players that were not able to reach agreement before today’s noon deadline to swap salary positions. Matt Swartz’s arbitration projections are available here.
As MLBTR has previously explained, 156 players officially filed for arbitration (after some eligible and tendered players had already reached agreement). Of those, 34 players have yet to reach reported agreements with their clubs. Of course, those players can still reach agreements before their hearings (which will take place between February 1st and 21st). If the case goes to a hearing, the arbitrator must choose one side’s figures, rather than settling on a midpoint.
We’ve gathered the highest-stakes arbitration situations remaining — those where the player files for at least $4.5MM — in this post, but you can find them all in the tracker (with two as-yet-unreported exceptions).
- Jake Arrieta, Cubs: $13MM versus $7.5MM (Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, via Twitter)
- Aroldis Chapman, Yankees: $13.1MM versus $9MM (Jon Heyman, via Twitter)
- Josh Donaldson, Blue Jays: $11.8MM versus $11.35MM (Jon Heyman, via Twitter)
- Neil Walker, Mets: $11.8MM versus $9.4MM (Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, via Twitter)
- J.D. Martinez, Tigers: $8MM versus $6MM (Jon Heyman, via Twitter)
- Trevor Plouffe, Twins: $7.95MM versus $7MM (Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press, via Twitter)
- Zach Britton, Orioles: $7.9MM versus $5.6MM (Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, via Twitter)
- Brandon Belt, Giants: $7.5MM versus $5.3MM (Jon Heyman, via Twitter)
- Lucas Duda, Mets: $7.4MM versus $5.9MM (Jon Heyman, via Twitter)
- Garrett Richards, Angels: $7.1MM versus $5.3MM (Jon Heyman, via Twitter)
- Mike Moustakas, Royals: $7MM versus $4.2MM (Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, via Twitter)
- Nate Eovaldi, Yankees: $6.3MM versus $4.9MM (Jon Heyman, via Twitter)
- Mitch Moreland, Rangers: $6MM versus $4.675MM (Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram, via Twitter)
- Kevin Jepsen, Twins: $5.4MM versus $5.05MM (Jon Heyman, via Twitter)
- Jason Castro, Astros: $5.25MM versus $5MM (Jon Heyman, via Twitter)
- Jeurys Familia, Mets: $4.8MM versus $3.3MM (Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, via Twitter)
- Ivan Nova, Yankees: $4.6MM versus $3.8MM (Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, via Twitter)
Latest On Doug Fister’s Asking Price
Right-hander Doug Fister and his agents at PSI Sports Management have been seeking a two-year contract worth a guaranteed total of about $22MM this offseason, a source tells ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick (Twitter link).
Fister has reportedly drawn interest from a number of clubs this offseason, including the Phillies, Marlins and Tigers, although each of those teams has added rotation help since initially being connected to the soon-to-be 32-year-old. MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko tweets that the Orioles like Fister quite a bit but aren’t interested in going anywhere near Crasnick’s reported price tag in order to lure him to Baltimore.
Entering the 2015 season, Fister was part of what looked to be a star-studded class of elite and second-tier arms that were slated to hit the open market this winter. However, the 2015 campaign was the worst of his career by nearly any measure. Fister, of course, began the season in one of the game’s deepest rotations (Nationals), but he surprisingly struggled to the point where he lost his starting job and was moved to the bullpen. While he’s never thrown hard in the past, Fister opened the season averaging just over 86 mph on his fastball and eventually landed on the disabled list in mid-May with a bout of forearm tightness. He returned about a month later but didn’t see much in the way of improved results. All told, he recorded an uncharacteristic 4.60 ERA across 15 starts in his second (and presumably final) season with the Nats. In those 15 starts, Fister logged 86 innings (about 5 2/3 innings per outing) and struck out just 48 hitters — an average of 5.2 per nine innings. Fister’s 4.63 FIP, 4.60 xFIP and 4.70 SIERA all matched his unsightly ERA, and his 42 percent ground-ball rate out of the rotation this season was the lowest of his career.
While there’s clearly a long list of red flags surrounding Fister, the upside he brings to the table is also tantalizing. From 2011-14, Fister was one of baseball’s most underrated player, recording a pristine 3.11 ERA with 6.5 K/9, 1.7 BB/9 and a 50.5 percent ground-ball rate across 750 2/3 innings. He landed on the DL a few times in that stretch for a strained lat muscle and a pair of strained muscles in his side — nothing arm-related — and averaged 188 innings per season in that time (201 per season when factoring in the playoffs, where he owns a 2.60 ERA in 55 1/3 innings). If he’s back to full health and able to replicate his 2011-14 success, a $22MM contract would be a steal. Of course, if his 2016-17 seasons are more like his 2015 campaign, such a commitment would look unsightly in a hurry.
Orioles Have Made Offer To Cespedes; Mets Still Interested In Short-Term Deal
12:47pm: The Mets have not extended a formal offer to Cespedes, tweets Heyman, but do remain interested in pacts of one to three years if he comes off his demands for a longer-term deal.
12:30pm: MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez tweets that Cespedes is believed to be considering both a five-year, $90MM offer (plus a possible option) with the Orioles against a one-year deal with the Mets which would allow him to hit free agency again next winter.
JAN. 15, 11:40am: Jon Heyman tweets that the offer is believed to be for about $90MM over five years and may contain an option for a sixth season. Ghiroli also hears (Twitter link) that there’s a possible option attached to the deal, adding that Camden Yards is appealing to Cespedes. Kubatko adds (Twitter link) that there won’t be an opt-out clause from the Orioles.
JAN. 14, 9:36pm: Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun reports that the Orioles have increased their interest in Cespedes and are considering an offer worth around $18MM per year. That would seem to indicate that the Orioles are on the higher end of the range previously listed by Crasnick, although from my vantage point that still seems to be too light to land a player of Cespedes’ caliber. Whether that’s a launching point into deeper negotiations or an offer near the top of Baltimore’s comfort zone remains to be seen, but the team does not appear, at this time, to simply be willing to reallocate the ~$150MM offered to Davis to a pursuit of Cespedes.
6:16pm: ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick tweets that “it’s believed” that the Orioles are willing to go in the range of five years and $75-90MM for Cespedes at this time. While that’s a sizable sum, it’s also considerably south of the general expectations most had for Cespedes entering the season. Crasnick also tweets that the Orioles are becoming increasingly frustrated with Davis and might even be on the brink of walking away from negotiations entirely.
4:57pm: The Orioles have made an offer to outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, an industry source tells MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko (Twitter link), who adds that Baltimore prefers Cespedes to Justin Upton at this time. Per Kubatko, there are no new developments in the seemingly stagnant talks between the Orioles and Chris Davis. MLB.com’s Britt Ghiroli tweets that Baltimore’s interest in Cespedes “is high.”
The nature of the offer remains a mystery at this juncture, although given Baltimore’s reported seven-year, $150-154MM offer to Davis, the team clearly has some money to spend this offseason. While many have speculated that Cespedes could eventually change course and seek a short-term deal, that speculation seems largely unfounded; reports yesterday indicated that Cespedes’ camp has no interest in seeking a short-term deal, and as Jeff Todd and I broke down on today’s podcast, players on the level of Cespedes, Upton and Davis typically end up getting paid, even if they linger on the market into late January. For instance, one year ago today, a common narrative was that Max Scherzer didn’t have a market and wouldn’t be able to secure the mammoth contract he sought; on Jan. 22, he signed a $210MM contract with the Nationals. While the outfield market has been slow to develop, the Orioles could potentially be one of the keys to expediting the signing process for the remaining top bats. Representatives of each of the top remaining bats know that Baltimore has money to spend and a need for offense, with at least one corner-outfield hole to fill.
As the two top corner outfield bats remaining on the market, Cespedes and Upton figure to remain linked until one of the duo signs. The pair offers relatively similar skill-sets, though Cespedes offers considerably more defensive upside whereas Upton’s keener eye at the plate leads to an edge in on-base percentage for him. Additionally, Upton is two years younger, but he also comes with draft-pick compensation attached to his name after rejecting a qualifying offer. The same cannot be said for Cespedes, who was of course ineligible to receive a QO after being traded from the Tigers to the Mets this past season.
Orioles Avoid Arbitration With Chris Tillman, Manny Machado
The Orioles have avoided arbitration with right-hander Chris Tillman by agreeing to a one-year deal worth $6.225MM, tweets Jon Heyman. Tillman is represented by the Beverly Hills Sports Council. Additionally, Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun hears that Manny Machado has avoided arbitration with a one-year deal worth $5MM, plus incentives (Twitter link). And, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko tweets that Ryan Flaherty has agreed to a $1.5MM salary with the O’s. The Tillman and Flaherty figures are in line with the projections of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who pegged them at respective salaries of $6.2MM and $1.5MM. Machado comes up shy of his $5.9MM projection but still earns a huge raise over last year’s $548K salary.
Tillman, 27, took a step back in 2015, posting a 4.99 ERA with 6.2 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9 in 173 innings after having worked to a 3.52 ERA in the two seasons prior. He’ll hope for a rebound year as he sits two years away from free agency.
Machado, 23, broke out with an MVP-caliber season in 2015, hitting .286/.359/.502 with 35 home runs in 713 plate appearances to go along with elite defense at third base. Machado is controllable through the 2018 season and should prove to be among the elite ranks of third basemen throughout the league in the years to come.
Flaherty, 29, batted just .201/.281/.356 last season but will reprise his role as a utility bat with some pop. Though he’s a career .215 hitter, Flaherty does have 32 homers and a .150 ISO throughout his MLB career.
Players Avoiding Arbitration: Thursday
Here are the day’s lower-value arbitration deals, with all projections coming via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:
- The Padres and southpaw Drew Pomeranz have avoided arb by agreeing to a one-year, $1.35MM deal, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. That’s a near-match with Swartz’s projection of $1.3MM. Acquired in an offseason trade with the A’s, Pomeranz will slot into the San Diego ‘pen this season and look to build on last season’s 86 innings of 3.66 ERA, during which he averaged 8.6 K.9 and 3.2 BB/9 to complement a 42.2 percent ground-ball rate.
- Fernando Salas and the Angels are in agreement on a one-year, $2.4MM deal, thereby avoiding a hearing, per Rosenthal. The 30-year-old Salas, who will be a free agent next winter, posted a 4.24 ERA in 63 2/3 innings this past season but had more encouraging peripherals; Salas averaged 10.5 K/9 against 1.7 BB/9 with a 35.1 percent ground-ball rate, prompting FIP (3.15) xFIP (3.23) and SIERA (2.65) to forecast markedly better results.
- Right-hander Jeanmar Gomez and the Phillies have avoided arb with a one-year, $1.4MM agreement, Rosenthal tweets. The soon-to-be 28-year-old posted a strong 3.01 ERA with 6.0 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9 and also recorded a sound 48.8 percent ground-ball rate in 74 1/3 innings of relief across 65 appearances. He’ll again provide some valuable innings for the rebuilding Phillies.
Orioles Avoid Arbitration With Mark Trumbo
The Orioles have avoided arbitration with first baseman/outfielder/DH Mark Trumbo, according to ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick (via Twitter). Trumbo will earn $9.15MM for the coming season, per the report, before reaching free agency next winter.
That number comes in just north of the $9.1MM figure projected last fall by MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz. Trumbo’s big power numbers have always played well in arbitration, and he earned a solid raise over his $6.9MM salary from a year ago.
Of course, that rather expensive arb rate is a major reason that the O’s were able to acquire the 30-year-old at a palatable rate earlier in the offseason. He came to Baltimore from the Mariners along with C.J. Riefenhauser in exchange for catcher Steve Clevenger.
There’s no denying Trumbo’s pop. Though he’s tailed off a bit in the last two years, he averaged 32 long balls a year over 2011-13. Of course, that comes with a high whiff rate and low on-base numbers, as Trumbo owns a lifetime .250/.300/.458 slash line. After a down year in 2014, he put up a cumulative .262/.319/.449 batting line and 22 home runs with the M’s and the Diamondbacks.
It remains to be seen how Baltimore will deploy Trumbo, but he’s generally considered a poor defender in the corner outfield and at third. He has, however, posted positive metrics at first base, and that’s probably where he’d line up if the season began today. If the O’s re-sign Chris Davis, they could shift Trumbo into primary DH duty, but it’s worth noting that both players offer some positional flexibility.
Blue Jays Have Had Recent Contact With Gallardo’s Camp
JAN. 15: Contact between the two sides has been “minimal” to this point, tweets SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo. There is, of course, the possibility that talks will pick up steam in the days/weeks to come.
JAN. 14: The Blue Jays have carried interest in right-hander Yovani Gallardo throughout free agency, according to Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca (Twitter link), and the team has been in contact with Gallardo’s camp this week, he adds. As Nicholson-Smith further tweets, club president Mark Shapiro said just yesterday that Gallardo is “the kind of guy” that could help Toronto, although as Nicholson-Smith also notes, questions remain about the Jays’ willingness to spend and to part with the necessary draft pick to sign Gallardo.
For context, Shapiro’s exact words when asked about Gallardo (in an appearance with Bob McCown and Arash Madani on 590 The Fan) were as follows: “He’s the kind of guy that would make us better. He’s the kind of guy you’d like to have. Whether or not, from a resource perspective, we still have enough to make a move like that — that’s still a variable that exists, but we do have some flexibility still. Thinking about how we use those resources is still a question.” Asked about the draft pick attached to Gallardo, Shapiro said it is indeed a factor, but not one that would immediately close the door on a deal. Shapiro called the draft pick forfeiture a “premium you’re paying on top of the salary.”
While Shapiro is understandably vague when prompted about Gallardo specifically, it’s telling that the Jays have at least reached out to his representatives at Octagon quite recently. Toronto would seem to have a somewhat full rotation picture, on paper, though as Shapiro noted in the interview, a team is fortunate if it can get through a 162-game season only needing to rely on seven or eight starters, adding that often, more arms are necessary. So, while R.A. Dickey, Marcus Stroman, Marco Estrada, J.A. Happ, Jesse Chavez and Drew Hutchison are all in the mix– to say nothing of Aaron Sanchez and Roberto Osuna, who spent 2015 in the bullpen but were starters in the minors — there’s certainly room for more.
The question, then, as both Nicholson-Smith and Shapiro implied, is where exactly Gallardo’s asking price lies at this juncture. Toronto already has $95.75MM committed to the 2016 payroll, and that doesn’t include what currently projects to be Major League Baseball’s third-most expensive class of arbitration eligible players. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz pegged the Blue Jays’ arb class at $36MM in combined salaries — much of that coming from Josh Donaldson and newly acquired Drew Storen. And, while the Jays are reportedly receiving some cash considerations in the Storen trade as a means to offset the difference between his salary and that of Ben Revere, that sum shouldn’t total much more than $2MM (by MLBTR projections, it’d be $2.1MM). Those sums alone would bring Toronto to around $129.6MM in total payroll, not including league-minimum players to round out the roster and other expenses. It’s not unreasonable, then, to envision a scenario where the roster, as currently constructed, approaches or equals last year’s end-of-season payroll of $135MM.
As a result, the Blue Jays might need to get a bit creative if they’re to bring Gallardo into the fold. A backloaded contract would be one means of limiting the strain on 2016 payroll, and trading away another piece with a guaranteed salary or a notable arbitration projection could be another means of fitting Gallardo into the 2016 budget.
Of course, the Blue Jays will have competition for Gallardo’s services. The right-hander is one of the more desirable arms left on the free-agent market and has been connected to clubs such as the Royals, Orioles and Astros of late, although Jon Heyman reported yesterday (Twitter link) that the Astros were more focused on Ian Kennedy, leaving the Orioles and Royals as Gallardo’s primary suitors at the moment. While there’s no way to gauge the extent of Toronto’s interest, and the draft pick forfeiture/salary requirements do seem to make the Blue Jays a long shot, they seemingly must at least be considered on the periphery of the Gallardo market for the time being.
Arbitration Breakdown: Manny Machado
Over the next few weeks, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.
Manny Machado has reached arbitration eligibility at the young age of 23, and has already put up solid numbers in his career, including a breakout year in 2015. Machado hit .286 this past year, which is not all that much better than the .278 career mark he had going in, but his 35 home runs more than doubled his career high. After Machado’s 51 doubles in 2013 suggested he would eventually show more power than the 14 home runs that accompanied them, injuries in 2014 limited him to 354 PA. As a result, Machado’s pre-platform performance and overall career numbers are not as strong as his platform year, which makes him somewhat of a tricky case. Few comparables cases present themselves, so although his $5.9 million projected salary seems plausible, it could easily miss by a lot.
Machado’s strong defense also makes his case trickier as well. Although my model has repeatedly shown that defense does not consistently affect arbitration cases, many of the hitters who could be considered comparables for Machado were far worse fielders, and this could certainly help him earn more than them. Just because the model does not prove the importance of any specific defensive statistic, that does not mean that defense never enters into a case—we know from firsthand reports that it does. Machado’s relatively low number of RBIs for a guy who hit 35 home runs also makes his case unique as well.
Perhaps the best comparable could be Chris Davis’ case three years ago, although nearly everything about Davis’ case is slightly worse. Davis hit .270 with 33 home runs and 85 RBIs, which is a near match of Machado’s .286/35/86 in his platform year. Davis also did not have many home runs pre-platform, so his career 77 home runs at the time are not much different than Machado’s 68. However, Davis’ career average of .258 is way below Machado’s .281. Davis also plays an easier defensive position than Machado. However, the Orioles could certainly try to argue that Machado should not out-earn Davis’ $3.3 million award by too much.
Although it was seven years ago, Ryan Ludwick’s case looks very similar to Machado’s when Ludwick earned $3.7 million in 2009. He hit .299/37/113 in his platform year and had .273/65/209 career numbers, and although Ludwick’s platform numbers were slightly better, Machado’s career .281/65/215 is extremely similar. The Orioles could try to argue that a little salary inflation on Ludwick’s $3.7 million would put Machado between $4 and $5 million.
If Machado wants to argue for a salary closer to his $5.9 million projection, one potential comparable that Machado could consider is Dan Uggla, who had 32 home runs and 92 RBIs in his platform year before reaching arbitration eligibility, and who received $5.3 million. However, this was back in 2009 and cases that old are rarely used. Uggla also only hit .260, although he did have 90 career home runs, far exceeding Machado’s 68.
Another possibility Machado could use to try to push his salary closer to his projection, who is more recent than Uggla, is Giancarlo Stanton’s case just two years ago. Although Machado could be a similar match in terms of stardom, Stanton’s injuries kept him to 504 PA in his platform year and only 24 home runs, while he hit .249. He did have 117 career home runs though. While he played a different position, Stanton could be considered a comparable. He earned $6.5 million in 2014. Like with Uggla, the difficulty for Machado if he tries to argue for Stanton as a comparable is that both Uggla and Stanton had many more career home runs than Machado does.
Other potential comparables that Machado could use are Mark Trumbo, Chris Carter, and Pedro Alvarez, who all reached their first year of arbitration eligibility in the last couple years and earned $4.8, $4.175, and $4.25 million. They each hit between 34 and 37 home runs and between 88 to 100 RBIs in their platform year. Although they had more career home runs than Machado, ranging from 85 to 95 between them, their batting averages are much worse than Machado’s. They each hit between .227 and .233 in their platform year and between .222 and .250 in their careers. Machado could make the case that he had similar power to them, but a better average, so he deserves to have somewhere above $5 million.
It is difficult to find obvious cases where Machado exceeds his $5.9 million projection. There are a number of players with higher salaries who had similar platform years, but more home runs, while there are a couple of players who earned less money with career numbers that look similar to Machado, but whose cases are weaker in one way or another. Machado has a better batting average and defense than just about all of these players, including the players with more career home runs. However, I think Machado is probably likely to under-earn his projection.
A potential wild card that could come into play is a similar player who is also reaching his first year of eligibility this year, Nolan Arenado. With a similar breakout performance in 2015 along with strong defense at the same position, Arenado could easily help or hurt Machado’s case for arbitration this year if he reaches an agreement first.