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Gunnar Henderson Wins American League Rookie Of The Year Award

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Orioles infielder Gunnar Henderson has won Rookie of the Year for the American League, per an announcement from the Baseball Writers Association of America. Tanner Bibee of the Guardians placed second while Triston Casas of the Red Sox placed third.

Henderson got to make his major league debut last year as a September call-up, just a couple of months after his 21st birthday. Despite his young age, he held himself incredibly well. His 25.8% strikeout rate was a bit above average, but he also drew walks at a 12.1% clip. His .259/.348/.440 batting line last year resulted in a 128 wRC+, indicating he was 28% above league average in that time. That call-up gave him a chance to get a taste of the majors while maintaining rookie status, since he didn’t get to 130 at-bat or 45 days on the roster.

The O’s came into 2023 looking to firmly stamp out their rebuild and make the postseason for the first time since 2016. Henderson’s first full season helped them do just that, as he hit 28 home runs and stole 10 bases. His walk rate dipped to 9%, though that was still above league average. His .259/.348/.440 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 123. He split his time between shortstop and third base, getting strong grades at both positions. FanGraphs considered him to be worth 4.6 wins above replacement while Baseball Reference had him at 6.2. The Orioles, meanwhile, won 101 games and took the top spot in the American League East.

The award is surely gratifying for Henderson and the O’s in and of itself, but there are other implications of this news. The new collective bargaining agreement contains measures designed to combat service time manipulation through the prospect promotion incentive, or PPI. Top-two Rookie of the Year finishers who were Top 100 prospects on at least two preseason lists at Baseball America, ESPN and MLB Pipeline are automatically credited with a full service year. That won’t apply to Henderson, who was up all year and earned a full service year regardless, though he was the #1 prospect on all three of those lists.

But players with PPI status can also earn extra draft picks for their clubs if they have less than 60 days of service time to start the season and earn a full service year the traditional way, as Henderson did, while also appearing on those preseason prospect lists. Players in that camp who finish in the top two in Rookie of the Year voting or top three in Cy Young or Most Valuable Player voting during their pre-arbitration seasons earn a bonus pick after the first round for their club. That means the O’s, who are already loaded with young talent, will get a valuable extra pick in next year’s draft.

Bibee and Casas also had strong seasons, but not enough to catch Henderson. The former made 25 starts for the Guards with a 2.98 earned run average, 24.1% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate. He wasn’t promoted until late April but will earn a full service year by getting second place in this voting. But since he didn’t get that service year the traditional way, the Guards won’t get a bonus draft pick. Casas hit 24 home runs and walked in 13.9% of his plate appearances, leading to a .263/.367/.490 batting line and 129 wRC+. He was in the majors all year, so the voting won’t impact him from a service time perspective, but he falls just shy of getting the Red Sox a bonus pick.

Henderson was a unanimous selection, per the full vote tally from the BBWAA, getting all 30 first-place votes. Bibee got 20 of the second-place votes while Casas got six. Other players receiving votes were Josh Jung of the Rangers, Yainer Diaz of the Astros, Masataka Yoshida of the Red Sox, Edouard Julien of the Twins and Anthony Volpe of the Yankees.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Orioles Interested In Andrew Bailey As Pitching Coach

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  • Giants bullpen coach Andrew Bailey is expected to be a hot commodity on the coaching market this offseason, with Rosenthal and Kuty suggesting that he’s not only a candidate for the bench coach role with the Yankees but also the pitching coach role with both the Red Sox and Orioles. The duo suggest that Bailey could have a preference to return to the east coast after being denied permission by San Francisco to interview for a bench coach vacancy with the Mets back in 2022. The Giants hold no such power over Bailey at this point, as the 39-year-old is currently a free agent. Bailey pitched for both the Yankees and Red Sox during his big league career, which spanned eight seasons. Prior to his tenure as pitching coach in San Francisco, Bailey worked as a bullpen coach with the Angels under Ausmus during the 2019 season.

Orioles, Tucker Davidson Agree To Pre-Arbitration Contract

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The Orioles have signed left-hander Tucker Davidson for the 2024 season, the team announced. Since Davidson has yet to reach arbitration, it seems likely the contract is for near the league minimum salary for whatever time he spends in the majors.

Baltimore claimed Davidson off waivers from the Royals a couple weeks ago. The 27-year-old split this past season between the Angels and Kansas City, working 51 1/3 innings over 38 appearances. He allowed 5.96 earned runs per nine overall. After posting a 6.54 ERA in 18 outings for the Halos, he turned in a 5.03 mark over 20 games with K.C.

Davidson worked out of the bullpen in 2023. He had been a depth starter before this year, opening 11 of 12 appearances with Los Angeles in ’22. He struggled in that capacity as well and owns a 5.98 ERA through 125 career innings. Davidson has far better results in the minor leagues, including a 3.68 ERA in parts of three Triple-A campaigns.

He isn’t slated to reach arbitration until the end of next season. Davidson is out of minor league options, meaning the O’s have to keep him on the MLB club or run him through waivers.

Orioles Seeking Additions For Top Half Of Rotation, Back Of Bullpen

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The Orioles’ rebuild came to a definitive end with this year’s 101-win season, and general manager Mike Elias is already speaking accordingly as he enters his sixth offseason with the team. Elias tells Mark Feinsand of MLB.com that adding a starting pitcher who “projects for the front half of the rotation would be wonderful” and that he also hopes to add a late-inning reliever — ideally someone with closing experience.

The free-agent market isn’t short on either type of pitcher. Playoff-caliber starters in free agency include Blake Snell, Sonny Gray, Aaron Nola, Jordan Montgomery, Eduardo Rodriguez, Lucas Giolito and Marcus Stroman, to say nothing of incoming NPB stars like 25-year-old righty Yoshinobu Yamamoto and 30-year-old lefty Shota Imanaga.

Currently, the Orioles’ rotation is set to include Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kremer. Assuming he’s back to health after a lengthy recovery from Tommy John surgery, southpaw John Means should slot into the group. Other options include Tyler Wells, DL Hall, Cole Irvin, Bruce Zimmermann and prospect Cade Povich (who’s not yet on the 40-man roster but will surely be added by next week). Baltimore starters ranked 11th in the Majors with a 4.14 ERA this year — a mark that includes results from current free agents Kyle Gibson and Jack Flaherty.

As far as relievers go, former O’s prospect Josh Hader tops the class and could set a record for largest contract ever given to a reliever. Beyond him, former closing options on the market include David Robertson, Jordan Hicks, Aroldis Chapman, Hector Neris and Craig Kimbrel.

The trade market, of course, will feature prominent names in both regards, but the Orioles’ payroll is practically a blank slate, which gives them the opportunity to pursue just about any pitcher — assuming ownership is willing to commit to a long-term free agent for the first time in Elias’ tenure. Incredibly, James McCann and Felix Bautista — owed a combined $3.5MM in 2024 — are the only two players guaranteed any money this coming season.

Of course, the Orioles also have a deep and talented arbitration class. Each of Anthony Santander, John Means, Danny Coulombe, Cedric Mullins, Austin Hays, Ryan O’Hearn, Dillon Tate, Jorge Mateo, Ryan Mountcastle, Cionel Perez, Cole Irvin, Keegan Akin, Jacob Webb, Ramon Urias, Tyler Wells, Ryan McKenna and recent waiver claim Sam Hilliard is eligible for arbitration. That whopping group of 17 players projects to combine for $56.17MM in arbitration, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. Some from the bunch will be non-tendered or traded, but the most expensive names among the bunch (Santander, Mullins, Hays, Means, Mountcastle) seem likely to stay put.

Not long ago, a reliever with closing experience might not have seemed like a dire need for the O’s, but All-Star Felix Bautista underwent Tommy John surgery in October and is expected to miss the entire 2024 campaign as a result. The O’s have another All-Star, Yennier Cano, as a potential alternative option in the ninth inning, though he was far more successful in the season’s first three months (1.14 ERA) than in the second three (3.24 ERA). That’s not at all to suggest he can’t be an effective endgame option for the Birds, but rather to simply point out that as the year progressed, Cano didn’t quite look to be Bautista’s equal (as he did in the earlygoing).

The Orioles’ ability to add to the pitching staff (and payroll in general) is only buoyed by the fact that so much of the team’s excellent young core is not yet even into arbitration. Each of Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, Bradish, Rodriguez and Cano will make league minimum or only slightly more in 2024. The same is true of prospects like Colton Cowser, Heston Kjerstad, Coby Mayo and Jackson Holliday, each of whom could play a significant role for the ’24 club.

It’ll likely become a rather expensive core at some point, but for the time being, their minimal financial commitments give the O’s considerable flexibility to creatively pursue just about any pitcher they like. High-profile arms seeking short-term rebound deals could fit into the payroll for a year or two without issue, and if the Orioles want to pursue a longer-term fit, they could always frontload the contract to pay out more of the guarantee in 2024-25, when the so much of the roster is still in its pre-arbitration years.

Joey Krehbiel Elects Free Agency

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Right-hander Joey Krehbiel, who was designated for assignment by the Orioles last week, has declined an outright assignment and opted to become a free agent, reports Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. The 30-year-old had been previously outrighted in his career, which grants him the result to reject a subsequent outright assignment.

Krehbiel pitched 57 innings of relief with the 2022 Orioles but logged just five MLB frames in 2023, spending the rest of the time down in Triple-A Norfolk. Krehbiel has performed reasonably well in the bigs with Baltimore, pitching to a 3.73 ERA with a 19% strikeout rate, 7.6% walk rate and 41.1% grounder rate in his 63 2/3 frames over the past two seasons. That said, he also walked more than 14% of his opponents in 39 1/3 Triple-A innings, to say nothing of an unsightly 1.6 HR/9 mark with Baltimore’s top affiliate in Norfolk.

Last year’s 57 MLB innings were a career-high for Krehbiel, who’s appeared in parts of four campaigns between the D-backs, Rays and O’s. He’s turned in a 3.65 ERA with sub-par strikeout and walk rates in that time, averaging 94.7 mph on his heater and generating grounders at a roughly average rate.

Krehbiel will head to the open market in search of a new opportunity, likely on a minor league deal. He has a minor league option remaining, which will add to his appeal for clubs who have interest in bringing him aboard as a depth option for their relief corps. And, since he still has fewer than two years of MLB service time, Krehbiel is controllable for another five seasons. Of course, he’d need to pitch his way onto a big league roster and carve out a permanent role for that to be a factor of any real note.

Dick Drago Passes Away

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Former starting pitcher Dick Drago has passed away on Thursday at the age of 78, as noted by Pete Abraham of The Boston Globe. Drago pitched for the Royals, Red Sox, Angels, Orioles, and Mariners throughout his big league career, which spanned 13 seasons from 1969 to 1981. The Royals and Red Sox both mourned the loss on X this morning, extending sympathies to Drago’s friends and family.

Drago’s big league career began as a member of the inaugural Royals team in 1969, a team for which he quickly emerged as one of the better starting options. Drago posted a 3.77 ERA with a 3.67 FIP across 200 2/3 innings of work during his rookie campaign, throwing 10 complete games and appearing in 41 with 26 starts. He largely repeated those results during the 1970 season with even more volume, pitching to a 3.75 ERA and 3.65 FIP across 240 innings of work.

The righty’s star shined brightest during the 1971 campaign, however. Across 35 appearances (34 starts) for Kansas City that year, Drago posted a 2.98 ERA with a nearly matching 2.99 FIP. He did that across 241 1/3 innings of work, recording 15 complete games with four shutouts among them. Drago’s performance led the Royals to the club’s first season above .500 in the young franchise’s history and earned him a fifth-place finish in AL Cy Young award voting that year while the trophy ultimately went to Vida Blue.

Drago ultimately spent two more seasons in Kansas City, pitching to a 3.58 ERA and 3.47 FIP across a combined 452 innings of work those seasons. In 1974, Drago began his first stint in Boston, which would only last two seasons. That included, of course, the club’s 1975 World Series run that saw them lose the World Series in seven games against the Reds. While Drago pitched just 72 2/3 innings of 3.84 ERA baseball with the Red Sox during the regular season that year, his contributions in four appearances out of the Boston bullpen during the playoffs were far more impressive: Drago allowed just one run in 8 2/3 innings of work across four appearances that postseason against the A’s and Reds.

After converting to relief work in the 1975 season Drago spent two seasons pitching out of the bullpen for the Angels (for whom he gave up the final home run of Hank Aaron’s career in 1976) and the Orioles, with a 3.99 ERA and 3.86 FIP in 140 innings of work across those two seasons, before returning to Boston in 1978. His second stint with the club lasted three seasons, and saw him do some of his best work as a reliever: he posted identical 3.03 ERAs in back-to-back campaigns in ’78 and ’79 before reaching 100 innings pitched in a season for the first time since 1974, his first season with the Red Sox, during the 1980 campaign, his final in Boston.

Drago’s career then came to a close in 1981, after 39 appearances with the Mariners. Over his 13-season big league career, Drago posted a 3.62 ERA and 3.58 FIP with an above-average ERA+ of 103 across 1875 innings of work. He appeared in 519 games, struck out 987 batters, and accrued 108 wins throughout his career. We at MLB Trade Rumors extend our condolences to Drago’s family, friends, fans and former teammates.

Nelson Cruz To Retire

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Nelson Cruz revealed on the Adam Jones Podcast that he is planning to retire from playing after an upcoming stint in the Dominican Winter League.

Nelson Cruz | Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY SportsCruz, now 43, was something of a late bloomer but still went on to have an incredibly long and productive career in the big leagues. He didn’t fully establish himself as an everyday big league player until 2009. That was technically his “age-28 season”, but he turned 29 on July 1, just after the standard June 30 cutoff for such distinctions. He had some limited looks in the big leagues with the Brewers and Rangers from 2005 to 2008 but that 2009 season saw him bust out with 33 home runs and 20 stolen bases for Texas.

He would follow that with 22 and 29 home runs in the next two years, helping the Rangers reach the World Series in each campaign, though they ultimate lost on both occasions. He continued serving as a potent slugger for a time but that was put on pause when he was connected to the Biogenesis performance-enhancing drugs scandal, receiving a 50-game suspension in August of 2013.

He reached free agency after that campaign and the Rangers gave him a qualifying offer of over $14MM, which he turned down. The draft pick forfeiture tied to that QO and his PED situation led to him lingering on the open market until late February, eventually signing with the Orioles for one year and $8MM, well below the QO he turned down.

He had a monster year for the O’s in 2014, launching 40 home runs and helping that club reach the American League Championship Series. The O’s then gave him a $15.3MM qualifying offer, as players were still allowed to receive multiple QOs at that time. The limit of one per career did not come into place until the 2017-2021 Collective Bargaining Agreement. Cruz turned the QO down again but fared far better in this trip to free agency, landing a four-year, $57MM deal with the Mariners.

Though he had been an outfielder earlier in his career, he slid more into a full-time designated hitter role over the course of that deal with Seattle. The club likely didn’t mind as he continued mashing, with 163 home runs in that four-year span. He then continued to produce in a similar fashion after joining the Twins, launching 41 more homers in 2019 then 16 in the shortened 2020 season.

He was still crushing baseballs through the first half of 2021, but his production slid after a midseason trade from the Twins to the Rays. He signed one-year deals with the Nationals and Padres for the past two seasons but his offensive production slid to below par. Since he was into his 40s and limited to DH duties only, it became tougher to roster him and the Padres released him in July.

Cruz retires having played in 2,055 regular season games, hitting 464 home runs in that time. His finishes with a batting line of .274/.343/.513, which translates into a wRC+ of 128, indicating he was 28% better than the league average hitter. He made seven All-Star teams, won four Silver Sluggers, a Roberto Clemente Award and various other honors. He represented the Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic on four separate occasions, winning the 2013 tournament. His Baseball Reference page indicates he earned over $140MM in his career. We at MLB Trade Rumors salute Cruz for his many accomplishments and wish him the best of luck for whatever awaits him in his post-playing days.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Orioles Claim Sam Hilliard From Braves

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The Orioles announced today that the club has claimed outfielder Sam Hilliard off waivers from the Braves. In a corresponding move, right-hander Joey Krehbiel has been designated for assignment. Meanwhile, the Braves announced that they’ve assigned infielder Andrew Velazquez and right-hander Ben Heller outright to the minors. Both Velazquez and Heller figure to reach minor league free agency later this month, though Heller has the requisite service time to elect free agency early, should he so choose.

The Braves picked up Hilliard last offseason in a trade with the Rockies, sending right-hander Dylan Spain to Colorado in exchange for the outfielder. Hilliard played for the Rockies in parts of four seasons, from 2019-22. The lefty-batter showed off plus power, but otherwise, his offensive skills were lacking. He played capable defense in all three outfield spots, although his glove was most valuable in left.

In 40 games for Atlanta this past season, his bat was the best it’s been since his rookie campaign, although his numbers were slightly inflated by an unsustainable .389 batting average on balls in play. Still, Hilliard was a serviceable fifth outfielder through the first half of the year, posting a .725 OPS with a perfect 1.000 fielding percentage. Unfortunately, he landed on the IL with a right heel contusion in mid-July, an injury that ultimately ended his season. In 2024, he will look to pick up where he left off with his new team.

The Orioles have no shortage of outfield options on the 40-man roster, including veterans Anthony Santander, Cedric Mullins, and Austin Hays, as well as rookies Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad. However, neither Cowser nor Kjerstad has proven himself at the major league level just yet, and it’s possible that one or both could open the 2024 campaign in Triple-A, instead of sitting on the big league bench. Alternatively, the Orioles could be planning to trade from a position of strength, perhaps to acquire more pitching this winter. That would make room for a backup outfielder like Hilliard on the roster, although he will still have to compete with Ryan McKenna, Terrin Vavra, and Kyle Stowers for playing time.

Krehbiel, 30, finally surpassed rookie limitations in 2022 after 11 years of professional baseball. The righty was successful as a low-leverage reliever for the Orioles, pitching 57 2/3 innings with a 3.90 ERA. However, he struggled in higher-leverage spots and posted large platoon splits, struggling to retire left-handed batters. He spent most of the 2023 campaign at Triple-A, unable to earn a spot in Baltimore’s talented bullpen. Should Krehbiel clear waivers, he will be eligible to reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency.

The Braves claimed Velazquez off waivers from the Angels in September to serve as middle infield depth, although he never saw time with the big league club. The 29-year-old shortstop will be out of options in 2024, so it’s not too surprising that Atlanta decided to clear him from the 40-man roster. In 54 games for the Angels this year, he hit .173 with a 52 wRC+ and -0.1 FanGraphs WAR.

Heller came over to the Braves in a midseason trade with the Rays, and Atlanta gave him his first chance to pitch in a big league game since 2020. The righty was a capable low-leverage reliever over the final months of the season, pitching to a 3.86 ERA in 19 appearances. However, he, too, will be out of minor league options next year. Both Heller and Velazquez had been non-tender candidates ahead of their first years of arbitration eligibility.

MLBTR Podcast: Juan Soto Speculation, Melvin and Zaidi in SF, and Boston Hires Breslow

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Shohei Ohtani is expected to set records with his next deal. Do you think he is one of the first or last players to sign? (19:10)
  • Who are the Twins potential trading partners for Max Kepler or Jorge Polanco? (24:30)
  • Who do you think are free agent pitchers the Orioles could realistically sign that would excite die-hard fans? Do they have a shot at any of the NPB pitchers coming stateside? (28:00)

Check out our past episodes!

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions: Pitchers

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The World Series will be completed in less than a week, which means the offseason is imminent. Almost right away, some key decisions will have to be made. Within five days of the World Series ending, contract options will need to be either exercised or declined and clubs will also have to choose whether or not to issue qualifying offers to eligible players.

A player is eligible for a qualifying offer if they have never received a QO before and spent the entire season with the same club. The value of the QO changes annually, calculated by taking the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. That means it generally rises as salaries increase over time, with this year’s QO expected to land around $20.5MM. If a player receives and rejects a qualifying offer, he becomes a free agent. If he then signs elsewhere, the signing team is subject to draft pick forfeiture and possibly other penalties, while their previous club receives draft pick compensation.

MLBTR is taking a look at the candidates, with one post focusing on the position players and this one looking at the pitchers.

No-Doubters

These five are slam dunks to receive and reject the qualifying offer. Ohtani won’t pitch in 2024 after undergoing elbow surgery, but he is still expected to hit and will perhaps return to the mound in 2025. As one of the best hitters in baseball and the potential for two-way contributions down the road, he’s in line for a record-setting contract. Nola is coming off a down season relative to his own standards but has an excellent track record that will put him in line for a nine-figure deal even with the QO attached. Gray’s total earning power will be capped somewhat by the fact that he turns 34 in a week but his excellent work in 2023 should be able to get him a new deal around $20MM per year over multiple seasons. Snell just wrapped up an excellent campaign, finishing with a 2.25 ERA that could see him net a second career Cy Young award. That sets him up for a huge payday even after rejecting the QO. Hader has been one of the best relievers in the game for a long time and could challenge Edwin Díaz for the biggest contract ever for a reliever.

Special Case

Kershaw has been eligible for a qualifying offer in each of the past two offseasons but didn’t receive one. That wasn’t a reflection of his performance but a sign of respect. In each case, Kershaw went into the winter not knowing if he wanted to come back to the Dodgers, jump to his hometown Rangers or retire. The Dodgers decided both times not to issue him the QO so that he wouldn’t have to make a rushed decision at the beginning of the offseason. Since Kershaw is once again undecided on his future, it seems fair to expect that the Dodgers will decline to extend the QO, though Kershaw would warrant one in a vacuum.

Possible Candidates

Lugo spent most of his career working out of the bullpen but hit free agency a year ago and drew plenty of interest as a starter. The Padres eventually brought him aboard via a two-year deal with a $15MM guarantee and incentives, as well as an opt-out after the first season.

The righty made the most of the opportunity, making 26 starts and logging 146 1/3 innings with a 3.57 earned run average. He stuck out 23.2% of batters faced, walked 6% and kept the ball on the ground at a 45.2% clip. There were some concerns about Lugo’s ability to hold up over a full season, both since he hadn’t had that kind of workload before and because he had a slight tear of his UCL in 2017 that wasn’t surgically addressed. But in 2023, Lugo made just one trip to the injured list, missing just over a month due to a calf strain.

Now that Lugo has proof of concept as a starter, he should have greater earning power than he did a year ago, even though he’s about to turn 34. Turning down the one year and $7.5MM left on his deal should be an easy call, but then the Padres will have a more difficult choice. It would be hard for Lugo to turn down a 2024 salary more than twice what he made in the prior season, so there would be a decent chance he accepts a QO. With the club reportedly looking to cut payroll, they may not want to take that chance.

Maeda has had his ups and downs in recent years but is heading into free agency with some momentum. He posted a 2.70 ERA in 2020 but then that figure jumped to 4.66 in 2021 before he underwent internal brace surgery on his elbow. He missed all of 2022 and then struggled early in 2023. In his fourth start of the season, he was shelled by the Yankees, allowing 10 earned runs in three innings. He was then placed on the injured list with a triceps strain while sporting an ERA of 9.00 for the year.

But after getting healthy, his results were much better. He was activated from the IL in late June and made 17 more appearances the rest of the way. He tossed 88 1/3 innings with a 3.36 ERA, 29% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate. Though his ERA for the whole year finished at 4.23, it seems fair to conclude that the early-season injury inflated that number.

The righty has never had a massive salary locked in. When he initially came over from Japan, the Dodgers signed him to an incentive-laden deal that guaranteed him $25MM over eight years. That came in the form of a $1MM signing bonus, $3MM salary each year and $6.5MM in incentives available each season based on games started and innings pitched. If he suddenly had a $20.5MM guarantee in front of him for his age-36 season, that would likely be very tempting.

The Twins aren’t one of the top payroll teams under normal circumstances and may need to cut back spending due to uncertainty around their TV revenues. They may not want to blow a huge chunk of their budget right at the beginning of the offseason, especially when their rotation is already in decent shape with Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack and Louie Varland currently pencilled in.

Wacha had some strong seasons earlier in his career with the Cardinals, but injuries became an issue more recently. He settled for a $3MM guarantee while joining the Mets for 2020, then was limited to 34 mediocre innings in the shortened season. The Rays took a shot on him in 2021 with another $3MM guarantee and he stayed healthy enough to log 124 2/3 innings with a 5.05 ERA. That relatively healthy campaign was enough to get him a one-year, $7MM deal with the Red Sox for 2022, and he then tossed 127 1/3 innings for that club with a 3.23 ERA.

He lingered on the open market for a while last offseason but eventually landed a four-year, $26MM guarantee from the Padres with a layered option structure. After the 2023 World Series, the Friars will have to decide whether or not to trigger two $16MM club options for 2024 and 2025, effectively a two-year, $32MM deal. If they decline, Wacha has a $6.5MM player option for 2024 and then $6MM player options for 2025 and 2026.

The righty is coming off another decent season. Though his shoulder landed him on the IL this year, just as it had in 2022 and 2020, he was able to make 24 starts and throw 134 1/3 innings with a 3.22 ERA. His 22.4% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate were both close to league average, though he may have benefitted from a .266 batting average on balls in play and 79.7% strand rate. His 3.89 FIP and 4.43 SIERA suggest his ERA might not be wholly sustainable.

As mentioned in the Lugo section above, the Padres are facing a budget crunch. Though they are likely pleased with Wacha’s results in 2023, would they want to give him a pay raise by triggering that option? If they pass on that, Wacha would likely turn down his player option and return to free agency. He would be eligible for a qualifying offer at that point, which would be a higher salary than the club option but on a shorter commitment. The Padres effectively have to decide between 1/20 or 2/32 or simply letting Wacha walk.

Long Shot

Some fans of the Yankees might shudder at the thought of the club bringing back Montas at a higher salary, but it’s not a completely crazy idea. Though he was hurt or ineffective from the moment he donned pinstripes, he’s not too far removed from some strong results. From 2019 to 2021, he posted an ERA of 3.51 over 336 innings pitched. In that time, he struck out 26.3% of batters faced, issued walks at a 7.3% clip and kept 43.7% of batted balls on the ground. Among pitchers with at least 300 innings pitched in that time, that ERA ranked him 21st in the majors. Even in 2022, prior to the infamous trade, he was still quite good. He registered an ERA of 3.18 in his 19 starts for the A’s that year.

Players returning from injury absences can often still find themselves big salaries on short-term deals. Noah Syndergaard got one year and $21MM from the Angels after missing most of 2020 and 2021 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Corey Kluber got $11MM from the Yankees even though he was 35 years old and made just eight appearances over the two previous campaigns. James Paxton got $10MM from the Red Sox under similar circumstances.

The Yankees have a couple of long-term contracts in their rotation with Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón. The latter hasn’t worked out well so far, with Rodón injured for much of 2023. The club needs rotation reinforcements with Michael King, Clarke Schmidt and Nestor Cortes pencilled into the back end, each of whom comes with some question marks. They could add another marquee free agent, but maybe they’d prefer to take a short-term flier on a player they have obviously liked for a long time, giving up four prospects to acquire him and Lou Trivino just over a year ago. They then agreed to a $7.5MM arbitration salary for 2023 even as questions about his shoulder lingered.

Though there’s an argument for the possibility, it ultimately seems like the odds are against this happening. The Montas trade has gone so poorly, both from an on-field perspective and a PR one, that it’s hard to envision the club doubling down. If Montas doesn’t receive the QO, he will likely be fielding one-year offers slightly below the $20.5MM salary range.

Ineligible

As mentioned up top, players are only eligible to receive the qualifying offer if they haven’t received one previously and also spent the entire year with just one MLB club. Rodriguez and Stroman, who can each opt out of their respective contracts, have each been issued a QO earlier in their career. Flaherty, Giolito and Montgomery were all traded midseason, which makes them ineligible as well. Players coming from other leagues aren’t eligible either, so Yamamoto and Imanaga won’t have the QO in play. For each of these pitchers, the lack of a QO helps their earning power since clubs won’t have to forfeit any draft picks to sign them.

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