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Orioles Have Made Offer To Cespedes; Mets Still Interested In Short-Term Deal

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12:47pm: The Mets have not extended a formal offer to Cespedes, tweets Heyman, but do remain interested in pacts of one to three years if he comes off his demands for a longer-term deal.

12:30pm: MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez tweets that Cespedes is believed to be considering both a five-year, $90MM offer (plus a possible option) with the Orioles against a one-year deal with the Mets which would allow him to hit free agency again next winter.

JAN. 15, 11:40am: Jon Heyman tweets that the offer is believed to be for about $90MM over five years and may contain an option for a sixth season. Ghiroli also hears (Twitter link) that there’s a possible option attached to the deal, adding that Camden Yards is appealing to Cespedes. Kubatko adds (Twitter link) that there won’t be an opt-out clause from the Orioles.

JAN. 14, 9:36pm: Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun reports that the Orioles have increased their interest in Cespedes and are considering an offer worth around $18MM per year.  That would seem to indicate that the Orioles are on the higher end of the range previously listed by Crasnick, although from my vantage point that still seems to be too light to land a player of Cespedes’ caliber. Whether that’s a launching point into deeper negotiations or an offer near the top of Baltimore’s comfort zone remains to be seen, but the team does not appear, at this time, to simply be willing to reallocate the ~$150MM offered to Davis to a pursuit of Cespedes.

6:16pm: ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick tweets that “it’s believed” that the Orioles are willing to go in the range of five years and $75-90MM for Cespedes at this time. While that’s a sizable sum, it’s also considerably south of the general expectations most had for Cespedes entering the season. Crasnick also tweets that the Orioles are becoming increasingly frustrated with Davis and might even be on the brink of walking away from negotiations entirely.

4:57pm: The Orioles have made an offer to outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, an industry source tells MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko (Twitter link), who adds that Baltimore prefers Cespedes to Justin Upton at this time. Per Kubatko, there are no new developments in the seemingly stagnant talks between the Orioles and Chris Davis. MLB.com’s Britt Ghiroli tweets that Baltimore’s interest in Cespedes “is high.”

The nature of the offer remains a mystery at this juncture, although given Baltimore’s reported seven-year, $150-154MM offer to Davis, the team clearly has some money to spend this offseason. While many have speculated that Cespedes could eventually change course and seek a short-term deal, that speculation seems largely unfounded; reports yesterday indicated that Cespedes’ camp has no interest in seeking a short-term deal, and as Jeff Todd and I broke down on today’s podcast, players on the level of Cespedes, Upton and Davis typically end up getting paid, even if they linger on the market into late January. For instance, one year ago today, a common narrative was that Max Scherzer didn’t have a market and wouldn’t be able to secure the mammoth contract he sought; on Jan. 22, he signed a $210MM contract with the Nationals. While the outfield market has been slow to develop, the Orioles could potentially be one of the keys to expediting the signing process for the remaining top bats. Representatives of each of the top remaining bats know that Baltimore has money to spend and a need for offense, with at least one corner-outfield hole to fill.

As the two top corner outfield bats remaining on the market, Cespedes and Upton figure to remain linked until one of the duo signs. The pair offers relatively similar skill-sets, though Cespedes offers considerably more defensive upside whereas Upton’s keener eye at the plate leads to an edge in on-base percentage for him. Additionally, Upton is two years younger, but he also comes with draft-pick compensation attached to his name after rejecting a qualifying offer. The same cannot be said for Cespedes, who was of course ineligible to receive a QO after being traded from the Tigers to the Mets this past season.

Orioles Avoid Arbitration With Chris Tillman, Manny Machado

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The Orioles have avoided arbitration with right-hander Chris Tillman by agreeing to a one-year deal worth $6.225MM, tweets Jon Heyman. Tillman is represented by the Beverly Hills Sports Council. Additionally, Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun hears that Manny Machado has avoided arbitration with a one-year deal worth $5MM, plus incentives (Twitter link). And, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko tweets that Ryan Flaherty has agreed to a $1.5MM salary with the O’s. The Tillman and Flaherty figures are in line with the projections of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who pegged them at respective salaries of $6.2MM and $1.5MM. Machado comes up shy of his $5.9MM projection but still earns a huge raise over last year’s $548K salary.

Tillman, 27, took a step back in 2015, posting a 4.99 ERA with 6.2 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9 in 173 innings after having worked to a 3.52 ERA in the two seasons prior. He’ll hope for a rebound year as he sits two years away from free agency.

Machado, 23, broke out with an MVP-caliber season in 2015, hitting .286/.359/.502 with 35 home runs in 713 plate appearances to go along with elite defense at third base. Machado is controllable through the 2018 season and should prove to be among the elite ranks of third basemen throughout the league in the years to come.

Flaherty, 29, batted just .201/.281/.356 last season but will reprise his role as a utility bat with some pop. Though he’s a career .215 hitter, Flaherty does have 32 homers and a .150 ISO throughout his MLB career.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: Thursday

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Here are the day’s lower-value arbitration deals, with all projections coming via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:

  • The Padres and southpaw Drew Pomeranz have avoided arb by agreeing to a one-year, $1.35MM deal, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. That’s a near-match with Swartz’s projection of $1.3MM. Acquired in an offseason trade with the A’s, Pomeranz will slot into the San Diego ’pen this season and look to build on last season’s 86 innings of 3.66 ERA, during which he averaged 8.6 K.9 and 3.2 BB/9 to complement a 42.2 percent ground-ball rate.
  • Fernando Salas and the Angels are in agreement on a one-year, $2.4MM deal, thereby avoiding a hearing, per Rosenthal. The 30-year-old Salas, who will be a free agent next winter, posted a 4.24 ERA in 63 2/3 innings this past season but had more encouraging peripherals; Salas averaged 10.5 K/9 against 1.7 BB/9 with a 35.1 percent ground-ball rate, prompting FIP (3.15) xFIP (3.23) and SIERA (2.65) to forecast markedly better results.
  • Right-hander Jeanmar Gomez and the Phillies have avoided arb with a one-year, $1.4MM agreement, Rosenthal tweets. The soon-to-be 28-year-old posted a strong 3.01 ERA with 6.0 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9 and also recorded a sound 48.8 percent ground-ball rate in 74 1/3 innings of relief across 65 appearances. He’ll again provide some valuable innings for the rebuilding Phillies.

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Orioles Avoid Arbitration With Mark Trumbo

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The Orioles have avoided arbitration with first baseman/outfielder/DH Mark Trumbo, according to ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick (via Twitter). Trumbo will earn $9.15MM for the coming season, per the report, before reaching free agency next winter.

That number comes in just north of the $9.1MM figure projected last fall by MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz. Trumbo’s big power numbers have always played well in arbitration, and he earned a solid raise over his $6.9MM salary from a year ago.

Of course, that rather expensive arb rate is a major reason that the O’s were able to acquire the 30-year-old at a palatable rate earlier in the offseason. He came to Baltimore from the Mariners along with C.J. Riefenhauser in exchange for catcher Steve Clevenger.

There’s no denying Trumbo’s pop. Though he’s tailed off a bit in the last two years, he averaged 32 long balls a year over 2011-13. Of course, that comes with a high whiff rate and low on-base numbers, as Trumbo owns a lifetime .250/.300/.458 slash line. After a down year in 2014, he put up a cumulative .262/.319/.449 batting line and 22 home runs with the M’s and the Diamondbacks.

It remains to be seen how Baltimore will deploy Trumbo, but he’s generally considered a poor defender in the corner outfield and at third. He has, however, posted positive metrics at first base, and that’s probably where he’d line up if the season began today. If the O’s re-sign Chris Davis, they could shift Trumbo into primary DH duty, but it’s worth noting that both players offer some positional flexibility.

Blue Jays Have Had Recent Contact With Gallardo’s Camp

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JAN. 15: Contact between the two sides has been “minimal” to this point, tweets SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo. There is, of course, the possibility that talks will pick up steam in the days/weeks to come.

JAN. 14: The Blue Jays have carried interest in right-hander Yovani Gallardo throughout free agency, according to Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca (Twitter link), and the team has been in contact with Gallardo’s camp this week, he adds. As Nicholson-Smith further tweets, club president Mark Shapiro said just yesterday that Gallardo is “the kind of guy” that could help Toronto, although as Nicholson-Smith also notes, questions remain about the Jays’ willingness to spend and to part with the necessary draft pick to sign Gallardo.

For context, Shapiro’s exact words when asked about Gallardo (in an appearance with Bob McCown and Arash Madani on 590 The Fan) were as follows: “He’s the kind of guy that would make us better. He’s the kind of guy you’d like to have. Whether or not, from a resource perspective, we still have enough to make a move like that — that’s still a variable that exists, but we do have some flexibility still. Thinking about how we use those resources is still a question.” Asked about the draft pick attached to Gallardo, Shapiro said it is indeed a factor, but not one that would immediately close the door on a deal. Shapiro called the draft pick forfeiture a “premium you’re paying on top of the salary.”

While Shapiro is understandably vague when prompted about Gallardo specifically, it’s telling that the Jays have at least reached out to his representatives at Octagon quite recently. Toronto would seem to have a somewhat full rotation picture, on paper, though as Shapiro noted in the interview, a team is fortunate if it can get through a 162-game season only needing to rely on seven or eight starters, adding that often, more arms are necessary. So, while R.A. Dickey, Marcus Stroman, Marco Estrada, J.A. Happ, Jesse Chavez and Drew Hutchison are all in the mix– to say nothing of Aaron Sanchez and Roberto Osuna, who spent 2015 in the bullpen but were starters in the minors — there’s certainly room for more.

The question, then, as both Nicholson-Smith and Shapiro implied, is where exactly Gallardo’s asking price lies at this juncture. Toronto already has $95.75MM committed to the 2016 payroll, and that doesn’t include what currently projects to be Major League Baseball’s third-most expensive class of arbitration eligible players. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz pegged the Blue Jays’ arb class at $36MM in combined salaries — much of that coming from Josh Donaldson and newly acquired Drew Storen. And, while the Jays are reportedly receiving some cash considerations in the Storen trade as a means to offset the difference between his salary and that of Ben Revere, that sum shouldn’t total much more than $2MM (by MLBTR projections, it’d be $2.1MM). Those sums alone would bring Toronto to around $129.6MM in total payroll, not including league-minimum players to round out the roster and other expenses. It’s not unreasonable, then, to envision a scenario where the roster, as currently constructed, approaches or equals last year’s end-of-season payroll of $135MM.

As a result, the Blue Jays might need to get a bit creative if they’re to bring Gallardo into the fold. A backloaded contract would be one means of limiting the strain on 2016 payroll, and trading away another piece with a guaranteed salary or a notable arbitration projection could be another means of fitting Gallardo into the 2016 budget.

Of course, the Blue Jays will have competition for Gallardo’s services. The right-hander is one of the more desirable arms left on the free-agent market and has been connected to clubs such as the Royals, Orioles and Astros of late, although Jon Heyman reported yesterday (Twitter link) that the Astros were more focused on Ian Kennedy, leaving the Orioles and Royals as Gallardo’s primary suitors at the moment. While there’s no way to gauge the extent of Toronto’s interest, and the draft pick forfeiture/salary requirements do seem to make the Blue Jays a long shot, they seemingly must at least be considered on the periphery of the Gallardo market for the time being.

Arbitration Breakdown: Manny Machado

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Over the next few weeks, I will be discussing some of the higher profile upcoming arbitration cases. I will rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong.

Manny Machado has reached arbitration eligibility at the young age of 23, and has already put up solid numbers in his career, including a breakout year in 2015. Machado hit .286 this past year, which is not all that much better than the .278 career mark he had going in, but his 35 home runs more than doubled his career high. After Machado’s 51 doubles in 2013 suggested he would eventually show more power than the 14 home runs that accompanied them, injuries in 2014 limited him to 354 PA. As a result, Machado’s pre-platform performance and overall career numbers are not as strong as his platform year, which makes him somewhat of a tricky case. Few comparables cases present themselves, so although his $5.9 million projected salary seems plausible, it could easily miss by a lot.

Machado’s strong defense also makes his case trickier as well. Although my model has repeatedly shown that defense does not consistently affect arbitration cases, many of the hitters who could be considered comparables for Machado were far worse fielders, and this could certainly help him earn more than them. Just because the model does not prove the importance of any specific defensive statistic, that does not mean that defense never enters into a case—we know from firsthand reports that it does. Machado’s relatively low number of RBIs for a guy who hit 35 home runs also makes his case unique as well.

Perhaps the best comparable could be Chris Davis’ case three years ago, although nearly everything about Davis’ case is slightly worse. Davis hit .270 with 33 home runs and 85 RBIs, which is a near match of Machado’s .286/35/86 in his platform year. Davis also did not have many home runs pre-platform, so his career 77 home runs at the time are not much different than Machado’s 68. However, Davis’ career average of .258 is way below Machado’s .281. Davis also plays an easier defensive position than Machado. However, the Orioles could certainly try to argue that Machado should not out-earn Davis’ $3.3 million award by too much.

Although it was seven years ago, Ryan Ludwick’s case looks very similar to Machado’s when Ludwick earned $3.7 million in 2009. He hit .299/37/113 in his platform year and had .273/65/209 career numbers, and although Ludwick’s platform numbers were slightly better, Machado’s career .281/65/215 is extremely similar. The Orioles could try to argue that a little salary inflation on Ludwick’s $3.7 million would put Machado between $4 and $5 million.

If Machado wants to argue for a salary closer to his $5.9 million projection, one potential comparable that Machado could consider is Dan Uggla, who had 32 home runs and 92 RBIs in his platform year before reaching arbitration eligibility, and who received $5.3 million. However, this was back in 2009 and cases that old are rarely used. Uggla also only hit .260, although he did have 90 career home runs, far exceeding Machado’s 68.

Another possibility Machado could use to try to push his salary closer to his projection, who is more recent than Uggla, is Giancarlo Stanton’s case just two years ago. Although Machado could be a similar match in terms of stardom, Stanton’s injuries kept him to 504 PA in his platform year and only 24 home runs, while he hit .249. He did have 117 career home runs though. While he played a different position, Stanton could be considered a comparable. He earned $6.5 million in 2014. Like with Uggla, the difficulty for Machado if he tries to argue for Stanton as a comparable is that both Uggla and Stanton had many more career home runs than Machado does.

Other potential comparables that Machado could use are Mark Trumbo, Chris Carter, and Pedro Alvarez, who all reached their first year of arbitration eligibility in the last couple years and earned $4.8, $4.175, and $4.25 million. They each hit between 34 and 37 home runs and between 88 to 100 RBIs in their platform year. Although they had more career home runs than Machado, ranging from 85 to 95 between them, their batting averages are much worse than Machado’s. They each hit between .227 and .233 in their platform year and between .222 and .250 in their careers. Machado could make the case that he had similar power to them, but a better average, so he deserves to have somewhere above $5 million.

It is difficult to find obvious cases where Machado exceeds his $5.9 million projection. There are a number of players with higher salaries who had similar platform years, but more home runs, while there are a couple of players who earned less money with career numbers that look similar to Machado, but whose cases are weaker in one way or another. Machado has a better batting average and defense than just about all of these players, including the players with more career home runs. However, I think Machado is probably likely to under-earn his projection.

A potential wild card that could come into play is a similar player who is also reaching his first year of eligibility this year, Nolan Arenado. With a similar breakout performance in 2015 along with strong defense at the same position, Arenado could easily help or hurt Machado’s case for arbitration this year if he reaches an agreement first.

Latest On Trade Interest In Rockies’ Outfielders

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With the news that the Rockies have agreed to sign Gerardo Parra to join an already heavily-left-handed outfield mix, it seems increasingly likely that Colorado will strike a deal involving one of its current players. We’ve heard of wide-ranging possible matches for Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon, and Corey Dickerson, any of whom could in theory be moved.

Here are the latest rumors on the Colorado outfield situation now that Parra is in the fold:

  • The Tigers have also been in contact with the Rockies regarding their outfielders, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. No deal between the two sides is close, however, and it’s unclear which of Blackmon, Dickerson or Gonzalez intrigues Detroit the most at this juncture.

Earlier Updates

  • The Orioles are still participating in “ongoing trade talks” with the Rockies regarding outfielders, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports reports on Twitter. Baltimore has been connected previously to Gonzalez, though it seems plausible to think that any of the Rockies’ outfield trade chips could hold interest.
  • While the Angels have long seemed a plausible trade partner with Colorado, they have not been in contact on outfielders for several weeks, according to Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times (Twitter link). Los Angeles has previously been called at least a hypothetical match on Blackmon, in particular. The team is still looking for a corner outfielder, though it seems possible the club could run out a platoon of Craig Gentry and Daniel Nava if it can’t line up an upgrade at a reasonable price.
  • It’s interesting to wonder whether Colorado has already decided which (if any) of its outfielders it intends to move. There are several considerations at play, of course, but one simple truth is that the club needs someone to play center field next year. Blackmon took most of the reps up the middle last year, so parting with him could be extra painful — unless the team simply plans to use Parra there. But he has seen declining metrics that suggest a more challenging assignment may not be the best idea. And while both Gonzalez and Dickerson have appeared in center previously, neither looks like a good bet to receive regular time in that spot. I’d add, also, that the outfield market has changed quite a bit in recent weeks. Clubs like the Royals (Alex Gordon), Giants (Denard Span), and Nationals (Ben Revere) have made additions that either take them out of the market altogether or significantly reduce their need.

Minor MLB Transactions: 1/12/16

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Here are the day’s minor moves:

  • The Padres added lefty Ryan Buchter to the 40-man roster yesterday, as Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports. Buchter, a minor league signee, had drawn interest from an international club, which precipitated the move. As Lin notes, it appears that San Diego is committed to bringing a variety of unproven arms to camp to compete for bullpen jobs, with Buchter representing one such option.
  • The Orioles have reached agreement on a minor league deal with infielder/outfielder Alex Liddi, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports on Twitter. Liddi, 27, has taken 188 plate appearances in the big leagues, but none since 2013. He played last year at the Double-A level for the Royals, slashing .287/.324/.474 over 514 plate appearances.

East Notes: Ozuna, Gordon, Francoeur, Mets, O’s, Castro

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Marlins center fielder Marcell Ozuna has enormous upside, assistant hitting coach Frank Menechino said in an interview today on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (audio link). Menechino noted that Ozuna’s early success came despite the fact that he was quite raw, explaining that he’s had to learn on the fly — even as expectations, contract considerations, and other pressures were converging. Ozuna, of course, has long been seen as a trade chip, although momentum seems to be shifting away from that scenario.

More from Miami and some other news from the eastern divisions:

  • The Marlins ought to make a long-term deal with Dee Gordon a priority, argues Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. After all, he suggests, his agents at Beverly Hills Sports Council might well try to argue that Gordon’s marquee accomplishments — leading the league in batting average, hits, and stolen bases while picking up a Gold Glove — support an outside-the-box arbitration payday. While MLBTR projects a $5.9MM salary in his second of four turns through arbitration, Gordon and his reps could always file for more and take their chances. Of course, as MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz explained in a recent podcast appearance (at about the 20-minute mark), Gordon’s meager home run and RBI tallies limit his arb-earning upside despite his other big numbers.
  • While the Marlins have been fairly quiet this winter, they are still looking to add some players. Jon Heyman tweets that the club has its eye on some right-handed bats, with Jeff Francoeur among them.
  • Mets GM Sandy Alderson and the rest of the organization’s leadership have managed to upset a segment of the team’s fans despite last year’s World Series run, writes Ken Davidoff of the New York Post. Of course, as Davidoff explains, appeasing a “populist” sentiment in the fanbase (as Alderson put it) with a big signing would hardly guarantee on-field success.
  • Young Orioles righties Hunter Harvey and Dylan Bundy are participating in minicamp and appear to be in good health, Roch Kubtako of MASNsports.com reports. Both have had very tough runs of bad luck, and certainly the organization will be holding its collective breath to see how they feel as they ramp up this spring.
  • Orioles skipper Buck Showalter said today that he could imagine slugger Chris Davis waiting to sign until late in camp, Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun reports. “That’s not surprising at all the way that camp does business,” Showalter said. “It wouldn’t surprise me if it went to February. It wouldn’t surprise me if it goes to March.” It’s probably not worth reading too much into those comments, since Showalter is obviously not privy to the specific strategy of Davis and his agent, Scott Boras. But his words do seem to hint at some frustration in the organization at the inability to achieve resolution one way or the other.
  • If the Yankees need someone to step in at third base for Chase Headley, the club could well turn to Starlin Castro, GM Brian Cashman suggested today. As Chad Jennings of the LoHud Yankees Blog writes, the newly-acquired infielder is still likely to spend most of his time at second, but his experience on the left side of the infield (almost entirely at short) could increase the team’s roster flexibility. Meanwhile, Cashman emphasized that Alex Rodriguez will not see time in the field.

Orioles Interested In Minors Deal With Gavin Floyd

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Orioles manager Buck Showalter told reporters, including Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun, that the team has invited right-hander Gavin Floyd in for a tryout at their mini-camp. Rich Dubroff of CSNMidAtlantic.com adds (also via Twitter) that Baltimore is considering a Spring Training invite for the Maryland native and Moye Sports Associates client, should the audition go well. The O’s have long been interested in the local product, having been connected to him in multiple offseasons prior to this one. As MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko notes in writing about Showalter’s comments, the O’s made a two-year offer to Floyd prior to the 2014 season.

Floyd, who turns 33 later this month, spent the 2015 season in the Indians organization. He’s been largely out of action across the past three seasons due to a slew of injuries, beginning with Tommy John surgery that sidelined him for the entire 2013 season. Floyd returned strong with Atlanta in 2014 and hurled 54 1/3 innings of 2.65 ERA ball, but he fractured the olecranon bone on the tip of his right elbow and was forced to miss the remainder of the season after that promising start. Incredibly, after inking a one-year deal with Cleveland last winter, Floyd suffered the exact same injury in Spring Training — an olecranon fracture — that cost him the bulk of the 2015 campaign.

Floyd did surface with the Indians in the season’s final month, throwing 13 1/3 innings with a 2.70 ERA, seven strikeouts and four walks out of the Cleveland bullpen. Late in the season, Floyd told reporters that he because he enjoyed the city of Cleveland and loved how he was treated by the organization, he’d be interested in re-signing. However, the resurgence of Josh Tomlin and the emergence of young right-hander Cody Anderson left the Indians pretty well stocked with rotation depth.

The Orioles, on the other hand, could very much use some depth pieces for the rotation. Baltimore stands to lose left-hander Wei-Yin Chen, its most consistent starter, to free agency this offseason. That would thin out what was already a very underwhelming group of starters in 2015. The collective unit took a step backwards in large part due to struggles by stalwart Chris Tillman and his fellow right-hander, Miguel Gonzalez. In addition to that duo, the Orioles have the unproven-but-promising Kevin Gausmann as well as newcomer Vance Worley and the inconsistent Ubaldo Jimenez. Right-hander Mike Wright, too, is in the rotation picture, although he posted a 6.04 ERA in 44 2/3 innings last season in his Major League debut.

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