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Red Sox CEO On Betts, JDM, Luxury Tax

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Red Sox CEO Sam Kennedy met with the media for a postmortem on the 2019 season Monday. At a time when the future of superstars Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez is uncertain — Betts is a free agent after 2020 who has repeatedly voiced a desire to test the open market, while Martinez can opt out of the final three seasons of his contract next month — Kennedy acknowledged that there “is a way” to keep both Betts and Martinez on the roster but added that doing so “will be difficult” (Twitter links via Alex Speier of the Boston Globe).

Such comments only figure to fuel speculation that Betts could be made available in a what would be a blockbuster trade this winter, although the Sox have given no firm indication that he’ll be shopped. Betts earned $20MM this season in just his second trip through the arbitration process, and it’s likely that his salary will jump into the $30MM range next year. Betts didn’t replicate last year’s MVP production nevertheless put together yet another brilliant all-around season. In 706 trips to the plate, the 26-year-old batted .295/.391/.524 with 29 home runs, 40 doubles, five triples and 16 stolen bases. He posted flat-out elite defensive marks, per virtually every metric, for the fourth consecutive season, as well: +16 Defensive Runs Saved, +13.3 Ultimate Zone Rating, +7 Outs Above Average.

As for Martinez, he’s signed for another three years at a total of $62.5MM. He’ll receive a $2.5MM buyout if he opts out of the deal this offseason, meaning he’d need “only” to top a three-year, $60MM commitment in free agency in order to come out ahead. That’s not a given, as he’d surely be hit with a qualifying offer and face some questions about his defensive abilities (or lack thereof) when negotiating with National League clubs. But, asked just last night about sticking in Boston or searching for what would perhaps be his fifth team in five seasons, Martinez replied that he “kind of like[s]” moving around and wouldn’t mind doing so again if need be.

Payroll became an issue with the Red Sox last year when the team was quite clearly doing everything in its power to avoid crossing the third and final luxury tax threshold in free agency. Boston did nothing to address its bullpen outside of some low-profile rolls of the dice, and the team’s lack of bullpen depth proved costly in the long run. Still, significant additions would’ve come with a 75 percent dollar-for-dollar luxury hit, and the Boston ownership group demonstrated that even an organization with that level of deep pockets has its limits.

The Red Sox currently have “only” about $151MM counting against their luxury tax bill in 2020. That’s well south of the $208MM cutoff for the baseline luxury threshold, but that $151MM projection only includes currently guaranteed contracts. In other words, it doesn’t yet factor in arbitration raises for players whose salaries have yet to be determined. Not only will Betts be in line for an enormous raise on this year’s $20MM salary, but the Red Sox will also need to negotiate raises for Eduardo Rodriguez ($4.325MM in 2019), Brandon Workman ($1.15MM), Jackie Bradley Jr. ($8.55MM), Sandy Leon ($2.475MM), Steven Wright ($1.375MM), Matt Barnes ($1.6MM), Heath Hembree ($1.3125MM) and Andrew Benintendi ($717K). Obviously, some of those players could be traded or non-tendered, thus eliminating the need to worry about potential raises.

One of the biggest questions facing ownership is whether the team is comfortable paying the luxury tax for what would be a third consecutive season. The number of successive seasons is important, because penalties escalate with each consecutive year above the line. As a third-time offender, the Red Sox would be subject to a 50 percent luxury tax for every dollar spent over $208MM. They were taxed at a 30 percent rate in 2019 and 20 percent in 2018.

Kennedy plainly stated today that dropping beneath the luxury tax base of $208MM is a “goal but not a mandate” (Twitter link via Speier). The Red Sox, of course, are in the process of seeking out a new leader for their baseball operations department after firing Dave Dombrowski earlier this month, but the quartet that is heading up baseball ops an on interim basis — assistant GMs Eddie Romero, Brian O’Halloran, Zack Scott and Raquel Ferreria — have discussed scenarios in which they’d exceed the luxury tax in early discussions surrounding the team’s offseason approach and 2020 plans.

Obviously, the health and well-being of the team’s top two starting pitchers will be paramount not only when forecasting the team’s 2020 playoff chances but also in determining what types of additions need to be made over the winter. To that end, O’Halloran informed reporters today that the club anticipates both Chris Sale and David Price will be ready for Spring Training. If so, they’d return to join right-hander Nathan Eovaldi and the aforementioned Rodriguez. Complicating matters for the Sox is that each of Sale, Price and Eovaldi delivered mixed results, at best, throughout injury-shortened seasons and now represent question marks more than sure things. Not only will the team need to foster some additional depth, but adding a reliable source of innings to help round out the rotation seems likely to be a goal.

If the Sox do indeed aspire to dip back below the tax line, then there could be a wide-ranging series of changes to the roster this winter. However, nothing from today’s press conference seems to suggest that any sort of rebuild is in the offing. O’Halloran noted that while resetting the luxury line at some point would obviously be beneficial, the club’s goal is to build a championship-caliber roster (Twitter link).

JD Martinez Comments On Opt-Out

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Eyebrows were raised from Charlestown to South End today when, at the questioning of Boston Globe report Pete Abraham, Red Sox slugger J.D. Martinez seemed to express ambivalence about the prospect of returning to the team in 2020 (link). Martinez has a much-discussed opt-out to consider this offseason, and Abraham asked him whether the prospect of joining his fourth team in five years is truly an attractive one. “I don’t mind moving around,” Martinez told the reporter. “I kind of like it.”

That’s hardly the sort of “I love being here” boilerplate you often hear when players are asked about potential opt-outs or extension prospects. It may be a bit dramatic to read too much into the comments of a player likely eager to conclude what has been a frustrating season in Beantown, but the 32-year-old will indeed have a difficult decision to make this offseason. As part of the five-year/$110MM deal he signed with Boston in February of 2018, Martinez has an opt-out this offseason that would pay him $2.5MM if he elects to forego the remaining three years and $62.45MM on his contract. Essentially, Martinez will have to reconcile his desire to stay in Boston long-term with the ability of his agent Scott Boras to find a deal elsewhere in excess of that $62.45MM guarantee.

If Boras wants to market Martinez as the best DH option on the vine this season, he will no doubt be able to assemble some convincing presentations. Though this season didn’t quite see the former Astro, Tiger, and Diamondback replicate the offensive assault he placed on baseballs in the previous two years (170 and 167 wRC+ figures in 2018 and 2017, respectively), he still mounted a .305/.383/.559 line in 2019–output resulting in a 139 wRC+.

Though the market has not been kind to corner/DH types in recent years, Martinez should represent a more appealing free agent option than, say, Edwin Encarnacion, over whom the Yankees hold a $20MM club option; Nelson Cruz, still a Statcast darling at age 39, could challenge Martinez for DH supremacy among free agents, but the Twins would be smart to exercise that player’s $12MM club option for 2020.

Put another way: it’s quite possible that this year’s DH market will consist of Martinez, Avisail Garcia, and a handful of past-30 question marks like Mark Trumbo. If Martinez’s comments to Abraham are any indication, that might be a market context he is willing–if not eager–to place himself within.

No Talks Between Red Sox, Eduardo Rodriguez On Extension

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Eduardo Rodríguez has been the Red Sox most reliable starter this year. Sitting on 196.1 innings entering today’s final start against the Orioles, Rodríguez stands a good shot of eclipsing 200 innings for the first time in his career, which would make him one of only 15 pitchers to do so this season. His strikeout (24.6%) and walk (8.8%) rates are right in line with his previous career work, but a massive uptick in ground balls and improved health have helped the 26 year-old to a career-best season, with the high innings total paired with a solid 3.80 ERA.

With Rodríguez having emerged as a mid-rotation starter, many teams would be interested in locking him up long-term. The Red Sox, though, haven’t initiated any such conversations, he tells Rob Bradford of WEEI. Nevertheless, the hurler indicated he’d be amenable to a long-term arrangement if the team were to come knocking. “I still have two more years here. We’ll see how that goes. I love it here and I want to stay here for a long time. If they want me to, I’ll stay here,” Rodríguez said. “I haven’t had that conversation yet so I don’t know how that feels.”

That there haven’t been any talks as of yet isn’t too surprising considering the current state of the organization. Having fired Dave Dombrowski, the Sox are operating with a four-person crew heading up baseball operations for the stretch run, with the organization’s permanent leader still to be determined. No doubt, Boston will look to put a long-term front office structure in place before turning to key offseason roster decisions.

Also throwing a wrench into matters is the organization’s seemingly forthcoming effort to slash payroll significantly. Red Sox ownership expressed a desire this week to get underneath the competitive balance tax threshold of $208MM in 2020, a huge cut from the team’s estimated $240MM+ luxury tax figure this season. With the club already having $150MM+ on the books next season, not counting arbitration raises, there figures to be quite a bit of roster turnover.

While most of the attention has been focused on Mookie Betts, who is on track to become a free agent after next season, the situation with Rodríguez could likewise go a number of ways. Rodríguez and the Sox agreed to a $4.3MM salary to avoid arbitration last offseason, with two more years of arb forthcoming. Between his innings total, run prevention and 19 wins (which surely won’t matter to the Sox’s new front office head but will factor into his arbitration status), E-Rod looks poised for a significant raise in the coming months.

Buying out free agent seasons would only exacerbate the organization’s CBT concerns. Luxury tax calculations are based on average annual value of the players’ contracts, not actual yearly sum. Even if the Sox were to backload a Rodríguez extension, the present CBT calculation of any deal would be rather lofty, certainly higher than if the parties again settled on a one-year agreement to avoid arbitration.

If Boston indeed follows through on cutting payroll, there’s a chance Rodríguez even becomes an offseason trade candidate instead. Again, however, there’s little indication on how the organization plans to proceed until they bring in a new head of baseball ops. Dealing away Rodríguez would be difficult for a team that no doubt plans to contend in 2020, as the Sox’s rotation mix is filled with uncertainty. Chris Sale, Nathan Eovaldi and David Price all have their health question marks, while Rick Porcello is slated to hit free agency.

How the Red Sox choose to proceed this offseason will be among the winter’s most fascinating stories. Whether any arrangement can be hammered out to keep the youngest member of the rotation in the fold for the long-term certainly bears monitoring.

Red Sox Planning Contract Extension Offer For Rafael Devers

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The Red Sox are preparing to offer Rafael Devers a long-term contract this winter, WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford reports.  In general, most extensions aren’t discussed and/or completed until after the bulk of other offseason business has been completed, so more concrete news on this front might not surface until closer to Spring Training.

It only makes sense that the Sox would look to gain some cost certainty over a player who has emerged as a huge force in 2019.  Devers has hit .308/.359/.553 with 32 homers over 697 plate appearances, with a 131 wRC+ that ranks 13th among all qualified batters in baseball.  There have been questions about Devers’ ability to stick as a third baseman, though he at least held his own defensively depending on the metric; he had a +3 UZR/150, though a minus-6 in Defensive Runs Saved.

Long considered one of the game’s top prospects, Devers had a nice debut in 2017 before struggling in his first full MLB season in 2018, yet now he looks firmly established as a fixture in Boston’s lineup.  To that end, Devers is already under team control through the 2023 season, and he won’t be eligible for arbitration until after the 2020 campaign.  The Sox will surely look to lock up at least two or three of his free agent seasons in any extension, though it would come at a high price.  Devers will only be 27 years old on Opening Day 2024, and that relatively early entry into free agency will definitely raise his price tag on the open market (assuming he keeps up his current form, of course).

Last spring saw an unprecedented burst of extensions around the game, as a wide variety of players chose financial security over the uncertainty of an increasingly tight free agent market and the potential for labor strife when the current collective bargaining agreement expires following the 2021 season.  It’s possible Devers could follow suit, as he hasn’t banked an overt amount of money in his career (minimum salaries and his original $1.5MM international signing bonus) and might want to guarantee himself that proverbial “first fortune.”  Devers is represented by Rep 1 Baseball, who had another high-profile client in Luis Severino ink an extension with the Yankees last February.

Alex Bregman also signed a five-year, $100MM extension with the Astros back in March, which Bradford suggests could be a model for a Devers contract.  Bregman had hit .282./366/.500 with 58 homers over 1548 PA and 361 games at the time of his deal, while Devers has a .281/.335/.501 career mark with 63 homers through 1422 PA and 333 games.  However, Bregman is also over 2.5 years older than Devers, and wouldn’t have hit free agency until after his age-28 season.  Bregman is also a more defensively adept player that the Astros can count on to continue as a third baseman for years to come, whereas the Red Sox could still have an eye towards eventually shifting Devers over to first base down the road.

Perhaps the better way to view Bregman’s extension as a comp for Devers is in the specific terms of the agreement.  Bregman’s extension doesn’t actually begin until the 2020 season (covering his three arbitration years and first two free agent years), and thus the luxury tax hit associated with the deal doesn’t apply until next year.  Had Bregman’s 2019 season also been factored into the contract, it would’ve given him a luxury tax number of roughly $16.66MM, and left Houston with little wiggle room to stay under the $206MM luxury tax threshold.  Exceeding that threshold for one year in search of a World Series title might not have been a big deal for the Astros, though with Bregman still on a minimum salary, Houston is still projected to avoid any tax payments even after making a big deadline splash by acquiring Zack Greinke.

As it relates to Devers, one would think the Sox would explore a similar extension, one that wouldn’t begin until 2021 (his first arbitration-eligible year).  This would be a huge boost to the club in its goal to get under the luxury tax threshold this winter, since ducking under the $208MM limit and maintaining a competitive roster would be much more difficult if Devers suddenly had a $15-$20MM average annual value attached to his services.

Latest On Mookie Betts

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As the Red Sox season mercifully nears its conclusion, a difficult decision looms on the horizon for the club and whoever it hires to assume the vacant general manager post. With a contract extension looking unlikely for all-world outfielder Mookie Betts, it looks like a “realistic possibility” that he will be traded this offseason, writes Christopher Smith of masslive.com.

With just one year of team control remaining before he could hit free agency, the Red Sox will have to weigh whether to deal Betts now for a haul of controllable players, or ride it out for another year and recoup a draft pick after extending the qualifying offer. It’s worth noting that such a momentous decision will surely be a topic of discussion in GM interviews, though ultimately the decision will likely be made by ownership.

For his part, Betts has given ample reason to believe that he intends to test the open market after the 2020 season, at which point the Red Sox could only receive draft pick compensation should he choose to sign elsewhere. Thus, if the organization wants to retain the most value in exchange for its best asset, trading Betts would be the way to go. Of course, Betts could still re-sign with the Red Sox after testing free agency, but the Red Sox certainly wouldn’t bank on that outcome.

Otherwise, the Red Sox could simply hang on to Betts and pencil him into the leadoff spot for another crack at the postseason. Assuming he leaves at the end of the year, the Sox would only collect a draft pick in this scenario, but if the team wants to maximize its chances of returning to the Fall Classic, Betts needs to be in the lineup. He’s unquestionably been one of the most productive players in baseball over the last few years, ranking second behind only Mike Trout in fWAR since 2016.

But with Red Sox ownership intent on cutting payroll to sneak under the luxury tax, now might be the time to cash in on Betts’s trade value. In his final arbitration season, Betts is a virtual lock to fetch a salary approaching $30MM. Last offseason, he reeled in a $20MM payday that established the benchmark for players in his service class. After another fantastic season, a similar uptick in pay would place him in the neighborhood of $30MM. It would be hard to reconcile such a hefty price for one player with a top-down mandate to shed payroll.

To be sure, there’s considerable money coming off the books with Rick Porcello and Pablo Sandoval’s contracts expiring (with the potential for more should J.D. Martinez opt out of his deal). However, that will be offset somewhat by extensions for Chris Sale and Xander Bogaerts kicking in next year. Add in pay raises for arbitration-eligible players, and the Red Sox may already be approaching that tax number before any additional spending in the offseason. And with limited options to trim expenditures across the roster, Betts looks like a logical candidate to go.

Certainly, though, the Red Sox won’t force a deal if the price isn’t right. The club will surely insist on a handsome return for its MVP, and the trade market will have some sway in the team’s decision to pull the trigger on a deal. If Boston’s offers are underwhelming, there’s no pressure to trade Betts; keeping him around for another year can only help the team’s chances in 2020.

Interested teams will be wary that Betts may only be a one-year rental, and will therefore be hesitant to surrender promising youngsters who could benefit their club for years to come. It’s a risk, sure, but there are precious few opportunities to add a 26-year-old MVP in the prime of his career, and making such a move instantly boosts any team’s odds.

Steve Pearce Considering Retirement

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Hero and MVP of the 2018 World Series Steve Pearce is considering retirement, per Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe.

Last season ended in storybook fashion for the long-time role player as he turned in a historic performance for his favorite team from childhood, the Boston Red Sox. The 36-year-old was acquired from the Blue Jays in June mostly to serve as a right-handed option at first base, but he reached another gear at the biggest time of the year. In five games against the Los Angeles Dodgers, Pearce went 4-12 with a .500 OBP, 3 home runs, and 8 RBIs in earning MVP honors.

As incredible as last season ended, however, this season was an equal disaster. In just 29 games, Pearce turned in a miserable .180/.245/.258 line worth -0.6 bWAR, last appearing at the end of May while suffering from back and knee injuries. Pearce was just one part of the topsy-turvy season in Boston, though his reversal-of-fortune was perhaps the most extreme.

Pearce holds a career line of .254/.332/.440 while playing parts of 13 seasons for the Pirates, Orioles, Astros, Yankees, Rays, Blue Jays, and Red Sox, notably appearing in uniform for all five teams in the AL East. On his potential retirement, Pearce said, “I would have liked to have gone out a little bit different. If this year was a little bit different. But that’s baseball. That’s why it’s the most beautiful game in the world.”

Red Sox Aim To Get Under Luxury Line In 2020, Seek Outside GM

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In eye-popping late-September news, the Red Sox top brass told reporters that they aim to get under the luxury tax line for the 2020 campaign. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe (Twitter feed) is among those covering the fascinating statements of principal owner John Henry, chairman Tom Werner, and president/CEO Sam Kennedy.

There’s loads to unpack here, but the payroll comment is of particular note, because the Boston organization spent over $230MM in each of the past two seasons and already has over $150MM (as calculated for competitive balance tax purposes) committed for 2020 — before accounting for expensive arbitration raises for Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr., and Eduardo Rodriguez.

Dipping under the luxury line to re-set the tax penalty would mean getting south of $208MM. That’s simply not going to be possible without some notable roster changes, even with a number of players departing via free agency. J.D. Martinez is an obvious wild card here, as he’d open a big chunk of change if he opts out of his deal, but that’d also leave a significant hole in the lineup.

So, does that mean Betts is destined to depart? Not at all, per the organizational leadership. Though Betts has made clear time and time again that he’s not interested in an extension, Werner says the team intends to actively pursue further extension talks this winter — and has already reached out to Betts’s agent to get the ball rolling.

Even if Betts remains on the roster, at least for one more campaign, it’s fair to wonder whether the Red Sox are set to begin some kind of reloading effort. The trio denied that they see the upcoming season as a moment to step back from full competitiveness. It remains difficult to imagine a complete rebuild, but it’s equally hard to imagine how the club will compile a truly competitive roster while also drawing down payroll so significantly.

Needless to say, making the difficult tradeoffs that will be required promises to be quite tricky. While the Red Sox say they have ample confidence in the four executives currently guiding the baseball operations department following Dave Dombrowski’s ouster, they plan to seek an experienced general manager to take the helm. That sets up a fascinating outside hiring search, with the organization seeking a tried-and-true baseball ops leader.

The circumstances of Dombrowski’s departure remain a hot topic, particularly given the notable gap between the event and today’s full-scale media availability. Henry explains that differences arose in the immediate aftermath of last year’s World Series win and couldn’t be bridged throughout the ensuing campaign. While some have wondered whether the upheaval at the top could compromise the Boston organization’s ability to lure whatever exec they set their sights upon, Werner suggested that’s not a concern held internally. “I consider this position to be one of the most coveted in all of sports,” he said.

Latest On Red Sox GM Job

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  • The Red Sox are “aiming for the biggest names” in their search for a new general manager/head of baseball operations, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal writes (subscription required).  The major pressure and seemingly very short leash associated with the job, however, could make some executives hesitate about taking one of the sport’s marquee jobs.  Both Dave Dombrowski and Ben Cherington were fired after less than four years on the job, despite the fact that both men built World Series-winning rosters.  That lack of long-term security (even in the face of on-field success) might not appeal to executives who would have to move their families to, and perhaps from Boston, in short order.  There’s also the challenge of having to juggle the team’s big payroll while adding young talent, and also remaining in contention at all times.

Red Sox Notes: Betts, Holt

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  • Red Sox right fielder Mookie Betts has made it known that he plans to become a free agent after 2020, his final season of arbitration control. The 2018 AL MVP told Rob Bradford of WEEI that he’s taking a business-minded approach instead of one driven by emotions because of his upbringing. “Fans and media get caught up in emotions and that’s just not how I was raised and that’s just not what my point of view with my agents is,” said Betts. “We take emotions out of it and we focus on the business part. Of course, I love it here. This is all I know. But you also have to take that emotional side out of it and get to what is actually real.” Betts further explained to Bradford that a business-first mindset has steered him right in the past, specifically when he signed with the Red Sox as a fifth-round pick in 2011 and when he brushed off a possible contract extension before the 2017 season in order to reach arbitration during the ensuing winter.
  • Utility player Brock Holt, one of Betts’ Red Sox teammates, may be in his final days with the club. The pending free agent told Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald that he has loved playing for the Red Sox, who acquired him back in 2013. At the same time, though, he finds the idea of a potential trip to free agency “exciting.” That’s understandable coming from Holt, who boasts a respectable track record of production. Injuries have limited him to 83 games this season, but the 31-year-old has batted a solid .303/.379/.414 during that 280-PA span.

Red Sox Notes: Epstein, Porcello

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With the Red Sox seeking a new leader for their baseball operations department and the Cubs in free-fall mode, some have wondered whether there’s a path to a surprise reunion between the Boston organization and current Chicago president of baseball ops Theo Epstein. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe examines the basis for such speculation while providing a general overview of the early stages of Boston’s search. Epstein, of course, previously served as the Red Sox’ GM from 2002 until he left for Chicago in 2011. The Cubs have been a power for the majority of Epstein’s tenure there, and though this season has gone south for the club, there’s no indication he’s interested in leaving. Epstein’s under contract through 2021 on the record extension he signed with the Cubs in 2016. Nevertheless, some believe that the Red Sox “will want to see if they have a chance of reeling in some of the biggest fish in the executive seas,” Speier explains, and Epstein would certainly qualify. It’s an interesting look at the situation that’s worth a full read for anyone that finds the possibility intriguing.

  • The next person who calls the shots in Boston may have a decision to make on right-hander Rick Porcello, who’s due to become a free agent. In all likelihood, though, Porcello will reach the open market on the heels of a difficult season. The former AL Cy Young winner spoke to Rob Bradford of WEEI about his upcoming trip to free agency, saying: “You know my situation. You know what I’m headed into. I have no idea what is going to happen. We’ll see. Until you get to an offseason and you see what is going to be there for you don’t really know what is going to affect you.” Porcello, who will turn 31 in December, is wrapping up the four-year, $82.5MM extension Boston gave him when it acquired him from Detroit in 2015. For the most part, the deal worked out for the Red Sox, but the results haven’t been to either party’s liking this year. Porcello owns the game’s second-highest ERA (5.56) among qualified starters.

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