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Offseason Outlook: Boston Red Sox

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With a familiar face back in the manager’s chair, the Red Sox are looking to rebound from a disastrous last-place finish in the AL East.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Chris Sale, SP: $115MM through 2024 ($20MM club/vesting option for 2025; Sale can opt out of contract after the 2022 season)
  • Xander Bogaerts, SS: $100MM through 2025 (plus $20MM club/vesting option for 2026)
  • J.D. Martinez, OF/DH: $38.75MM through 2022 (could become mutual options if Martinez suffers a Lisfranc-related injury to his right foot)
  • Nathan Eovaldi, SP: $34MM through 2022
  • Dustin Pedroia, 2B: $12MM through 2021
  • Andrew Benintendi, OF: $6.6MM through 2021
  • Christian Vazquez, C: $6.5MM through 2021 (includes $250K buyout of $7MM club option for 2022)

Other Obligations

  • $32MM to the Dodgers through the 2022 season to cover a portion of David Price’s salary

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Option Decisions

Free Agents

Despite months of speculation that Alex Cora would eventually return to the Red Sox, the team at least created the perception of due diligence in searching for a new manager, with at least eight other candidates considered for the position.  Of course, Cora now returns to the job with the baggage of his role in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal, which led to his January firing in Boston and his subsequent league-issued suspension for the 2020 season.

Regardless of whether Cora’s return was always in the cards, the end result is the same — the manager of Boston’s 2018 World Series team has now been tasked with getting the Sox back on track.  With the obvious caveat of the 60-game schedule, Boston’s .400 winning percentage (24-36) was the lowest since the club’s .383 mark (62-100) in 1965, representing a drastic fall for a team just two years removed from a championship.

It was expected that 2020 would be a transition year for the Red Sox, considering last February’s trade of Mookie Betts and David Price to the Dodgers.  That blockbuster deal ensured that the Sox would duck under the Competitive Balance Tax threshold in 2020, thus avoiding the escalating tax bill that came with three consecutive years of overages, and also ensuring that the Red Sox would pay only the “first-timer” tax rate if they were to exceed the $210MM threshold in 2021.

When the Sox last reset their luxury tax bill in 2017, they responded by exceeding the threshold again in 2018, largely due to signing J.D. Martinez as the final piece of their World Series puzzle.  Even before the pandemic sliced into every team’s revenues, however, it didn’t seem likely that chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom was going to immediately launch a similar CBT-busting spending spree this winter.  If Boston’s plan going forward is to spend big but not to excess, the front office will have plenty of room to operate, as the Red Sox have a little under $161MM (well shy of $210MM) on the books for 2021.

“I don’t like ruling us out on anybody,” Bloom recently said in regards to shopping at the very top of the free agent market.  Boston’s biggest needs also overlap with some of the winter’s biggest available names.  George Springer would more than replace Jackie Bradley Jr. in center field.  DJ LeMahieu would turn second base from a weak spot to a strength.  Trevor Bauer would instantly upgrade a woeful rotation.  It remains to be seen how ardently the Sox will pursue any of this trio, or if they’ll instead look to spread their money around for less-expensive free agents or higher-priced players who may be available in trades.

Let’s begin with the pitching staff that was ravaged by injuries in 2020.  Chris Sale underwent Tommy John surgery last March and will miss at least a couple of months at the start of the season.  Eduardo Rodriguez thankfully seems to be on pace to return after missing all of last season due to a COVID-19 diagnosis that led to myocarditis, but it’s hard to call the southpaw anything other than a question mark until he is back on the mound.  With Rodriguez hopefully ready for Opening Day, he and Nathan Eovaldi will headline a rotation mix that currently looks to include Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck, Chris Mazza, or Kyle Hart.

Needless to say, there’s plenty of room for at least one and probably two proven starters to be added.  We’ve already seen some noteworthy early movement within the pitching market, as Marcus Stroman and Kevin Gausman accepted qualifying offers from the Mets and Giants, respectively, and Robbie Ray re-signed with the Blue Jays.  Beyond those names who have already left the board, a case could be made for the Red Sox to pursue just about any free agent arm.

Veterans Jake Odorizzi, Jose Quintana or Masahiro Tanaka could bring some stability, as odd as it would be to see Tanaka pitching on the other side of the Yankees/Red Sox rivalry.   Corey Kluber or James Paxton could be had at relative bargain prices given their injury-marred 2020 seasons, or Taijuan Walker or Garrett Richards could be pursued after their bounce-back campaigns.  If the Red Sox want to add a veteran to just eat some innings, they could turn to old friends Jon Lester, Rick Porcello, or Martin Perez.  Boston declined its $6.85MM club option on Perez, perhaps a bit of a surprise considering their need for pitching, but Perez posted some pretty middling numbers in 2020.

Bauer gets his own section, as the Red Sox’ hiring of Bloom likely pushes the club toward a more analytical approach that the right-hander desires.  With so much uncertainty in the rotation, one could even argue the Sox should be willing to let Bauer try pitching every fourth day — another item on his free-agent wish list.  Still, this seems like a long shot.  Bauer is more likely to sign with a team that seems closer to winning in 2021, and given his past criticism of the Astros, he might not be all that eager to play under Cora.

The bullpen was also a big problem area and might yet face an overhaul.  With teams expected to be more aggressive than ever in non-tendering arbitration-eligible players, it wouldn’t be a complete shock if any of Barnes, Brasier, Weber, or Brice were non-tendered.  It’s indicative of the state of the 2020 offseason that even generally solid relievers like Barnes or Brasier are lacking in job security.

If Bloom’s time with the Rays tells us anything about the approach he’ll take with the relief market in Boston, he’ll eschew going after bigger names like Liam Hendriks and the lucrative multi-year deals required to land top-of-the-market relievers.  The market should have plenty of short-term options available — former Rays Kirby Yates, Sergio Romo, and Brad Boxberger among them, not that Bloom will necessarily be predisposed to look at former Tampa Bay arms.  The Red Sox could also explore a reunion with Collin McHugh, who signed with the club last March but didn’t pitch after some lingering elbow problems led McHugh to opt out of the season.

It can’t be overstated just how much Boston’s pitching sunk their season, as the Red Sox lineup was a lot more solid than one would expect for a last-place team.  That was despite poor seasons from Martinez and Andrew Benintendi, and the Sox are counting on both to hit closer to their usual form next year.

Martinez will again be the regular DH while Benintendi will have a starting outfield job, though the position is to be determined.  With Bradley possibly leaving, either Benintendi or Alex Verdugo could be tabbed to take over in center field, or the Sox could take a more fluid approach to their lineup and have the two alternate between center field and a corner spot based on matchups.  With Michael Chavis, Yairo Munoz, and Martinez all able to chip in for corner outfield duty in a pinch and prospect Jarren Duran projected to make his MLB debut at some point in 2021, the Sox have some flexibility in whatever they decide to do with their outfield.

That decision could simply be to re-sign Bradley.  The Sox have already discussed a new contract for the former Gold Glover, though they’ll have competition since Bradley coupled his strong defense with an above-average offensive year in 2020.

Elsewhere around the diamond, shortstop (Xander Bogaerts), catcher (Christian Vazquez), third base (Rafael Devers), and first base (impressive rookie Bobby Dalbec) have most of the positions spoken for, but there has been some speculation that Devers’ defensive struggles could lead to a position swap with Dalbec.  Since the Red Sox are a bit thin on left-handed bats, nobody would be surprised if Mitch Moreland was brought back into the fold in his old part-time first base role.  Munoz was used exclusively as an outfielder last year but has infield experience, so he’ll be competing for bench/utility infield duty with Christian Arroyo, Tzu-Wei Lin, prospect C.J. Chatham, or maybe a new face or two signed to a minor league contract.

That leaves second base as the glaring weak link.  The Red Sox liked what they saw in Arroyo last year and it seems too early to give up on Chavis, so the backup plan could be to use these two and Munoz at the position and see what develops.  However, second base is also the most obvious spot for an external solution, especially since some solid options exist in free agency.  Beyond LeMahieu as the biggest get, Tommy La Stella, Cesar Hernandez, Kolten Wong, and Korean star Ha-Seong Kim are available.  Since star prospect Jeter Downs (whose potential debut in 2021 shouldn’t be ruled out) might eventually end up as the second baseman of the future, Boston would probably prefer to seek out shorter-term rather than longer-term contracts for any second baseman they might pursue.

If Bloom’s first season running the front office was marked by cost-cutting and roster churn, this offseason might be our first chance to see how plans to run the Red Sox under more “normal” circumstances — as normal as can be, of course, considering the pandemic’s influence and all of the uncertainty surrounding the 2021 season.  Don’t count on an all-in push, but if 2020 was all of the rebuilding and step backwards that ownership was willing to take, the Sox could be one of the winter’s more aggressive teams.

Red Sox Have Interest In Matt Shoemaker

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Right-hander Matt Shoemaker is drawing interest from multiple teams in free agency, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweets, including the Red Sox.  It’s probably safe to assume that pitching-needy Boston will be looking at several arms as it tries to rebuild the rotation, and Shoemaker is the kind of lower-cost veteran hurler that would offer some upside.

Red Sox, Jackie Bradley Jr. Have Been In Contact

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The Red Sox have reached out to Jackie Bradley Jr.’s camp since free agency opened, reports Rob Bradford of WEEI. The 30-year-old has also drawn interest from the Astros and an unidentified team in the AL Central, Bradford adds. (Speculatively speaking, the Royals and Indians seem the most likely teams in that division to pursue centerfield help this offseason).

Bradley joined the Red Sox when the organization selected him with the 40th overall pick in the 2010 draft. He had cemented himself as the team’s everyday center fielder by 2015, a role he’s held ever since. Bradley has had his share of highs and lows at the plate, but he’s consistently been among the game’s best defensive outfielders.

To his credit, Bradley hits the open market on the heels of one of the better offensive showings of his career. He slashed .283/.364/.450 with seven home runs over 217 plate appearances in 2020, rebounding from a .225/.317/.421 line the season before. That strong showing positions Bradley well in a free agent center field market that’s otherwise quite thin behind George Springer. The MLBTR staff forecasts Bradley for a two-year, $16MM deal this winter, with Houston pegged as his most likely landing spot.

Red Sox Free Agency Options

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  • The Red Sox aren’t far enough along in their post-Mookie retooling to make a play for top shelf free agents, but that doesn’t mean they won’t be major players in free agency. With many holes to fill and few roster spots guaranteed, there is a universe in which the Red Sox bid on a number of free agents in the non-premium range. Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe runs through the free agent market by position to see where the Red Sox might be shopping. Low-cost veterans for the rotation like Tyler Chatwood, Chris Archer, or Garrett Richards could be on the docket for Boston, per Abraham.

Managerial/Coaching Notes: Cora, Rowson, Fuld

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Alex Cora’s return as the Red Sox manager was widely predicted and even expected by some pundits, though the club’s managerial search “wasn’t a dog-and-pony show,” a source tells The Athletic’s Chad Jennings (subscription required).  Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom spoke to a wide range of candidates, and as Jennings writes, “the feeling within the organization was, if Bloom wanted someone else, ownership would support that choice.”  There was even some sentiment that Cora was initially only included in the search as “a courtesy interview,” though Bloom increasingly became convinced that Cora was the best choice to lead the club going forward.

More coaching-related notes from around baseball…

  • Marlins bench coach James Rowson was the third finalist for Boston’s managerial job, Jennings writes.  It was already reported that Cora and Phillies director of integrative baseball performance Sam Fuld were the other two finalists (and perhaps the top two choices) for the position, though it wasn’t known whether Rowson or Pirates bench coach Don Kelly was the other candidate to make the final cut.
  • Rowson’s future still looks bright, however, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal writes that Marlins “officials are intrigued” by their bench coach as a potential manager of the future.  Miami hired Rowson as their bench coach and something of an organizational hitting coordinator a year ago, following Rowson’s past stints as a hitting coach for the Twins and Cubs and multiple years working as a hitting instructor in the Yankees’ farm system.  Of course, the Marlins already have a manager in Don Mattingly, though Mattingly’s contract is only guaranteed through the 2021 season (with a club option for 2022).  It certainly doesn’t seem like Mattingly is in danger of being replaced any time soon, both due to Miami’s success last season and, as Rosenthal puts it, “it’s difficult to imagine them making a move with Mattingly and paying two managers at once.”  However, Mattingly is one of the few holdovers remaining from Jeffrey Loria’s ownership, so Derek Jeter could want a hand-picked manager in charge if he feels the Marlins have fully turned the corner on their rebuild.
  • Fuld may not have been the choice as Red Sox manager, but Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe wonders if the team’s interest in Fuld could make him a candidate to be the team’s next bench coach.  Fuld has never worked as a coach or manager at either the MLB or minor league levels, as his post-playing career has been spent in his current role with the Phillies.  If not Fuld as bench coach, the Sox could promote from within their current coaching staff, with Abraham suggesting Ramon Vazquez or Carlos Febles as potential candidates.

Red Sox Hire Alex Cora As Manager

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4:05pm: The Red Sox have made it official.

3:43pm: Cora has agreed to a two-year deal with a pair of club options, according to Enrique Rojas of ESPN.

3:20pm: Cora will get a multiyear deal, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com tweets. The Red Sox are likely to announce his rehiring today, per Heyman.

8:18am: The Red Sox are bringing back Alex Cora as manager, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). He’ll return to the position he occupied from 2018-19 in a move anticipated by many for quite some time.

Cora and the organization parted ways in January after commissioner Rob Manfred implicated him as an architect of the Astros’ 2017 sign-stealing scheme. Manfred later handed Cora a suspension through the end of the 2020 postseason for his integral role in Houston’s transgressions. (That suspension did not implicate Cora in Boston’s video room misuse during his time as Red Sox manager, which the commissioner blamed on replay coordinator J.T. Watkins). By then, the Red Sox had already replaced Cora with bench coach Ron Roenicke.

Roenicke’s tenure proved to be short-lived, as he was let go on the heels of a disappointing 24-36 season. That’s hardly all Roenicke’s fault, of course. Boston’s roster took plenty of hits outside the manager’s control in the months leading up to the start of the season. Mookie Betts was traded away, Chris Sale was forced to undergo Tommy John surgery, and Eduardo Rodríguez suffered through a serious battle with myocarditis after a bout with COVID-19.

The 2018-19 teams led by Cora had plenty more success. In his first season at the helm, Cora guided the 2018 Red Sox to one of the most successful seasons in recent history. Boston won 108 regular-season games, then breezed through the postseason to a World Series title. The 2019 team took a significant step back, falling to 84-78 and missing the playoffs. Nevertheless, there’s little doubt Cora would’ve been entrenched as Boston’s manager had his heavily-involved role in the Astros’ cheating scandal not come to light.

Boston interviewed a handful of other candidates during the search for Roenicke’s replacement this offseason. Cora always loomed as the favorite, given his apparent ongoing good favor with ownership and many of the team’s players. New baseball operations leader Chaim Bloom spoke with a handful of other candidates, with Phillies director of integrative performance Sam Fuld seemingly emerging as Cora’s biggest challenger for the job. Nevertheless, the Red Sox turned back to their old skipper almost as soon as he was permitted to return to the sport.

Cora’s hiring is further indication clubs are generally willing to look past individuals’ wrongdoings so long as they’re capable of helping the team win games. The Tigers hired former Houston manager A.J. Hinch as their skipper just three days after his suspension expired. Cora follows Hinch back into an MLB dugout just a week later. He’ll be tasked with again trying to lead Boston back to postseason glory, although he’ll now have to do so with a less-talented roster than the one he helped to a title two years ago.

Red Sox Down To Three Managerial Candidates

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The Red Sox are beginning to narrow the list of managerial candidates they’re considering, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (via Twitter). While five finalists have been previously reported — former manager Alex Cora, Phillies director of integrative baseball performance Sam Fuld, Pirates bench coach Don Kelly, Marlins bench coach James Rowson and Yankees bench coach Carlos Mendoza — Heyman characterizes Cora and Fuld as the favorites.

Alex Speier of the Boston Globe also suggests that the search is nearing a conclusion, reporting that Mendoza and one other finalist have been informed they’re no longer in the running. Cora and Fuld are indeed among the three remaining finalists, per Speier, who adds that a decision is expected to be made “soon.” While the widespread expectation has been that the Red Sox will simply re-hire Cora, Heyman notes that Fuld is seen as having a “very real” chance at winning the gig.

Fuld’s name was only linked to the Boston job less than a week ago, though the 38-year-old has past ties to Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom since both were members of the Rays organization (Fuld as a player, Bloom in the baseball operations department) from 2011-13. Multiple teams have expressed interest in Fuld for managerial positions in the past but he has declined interviews, so the fact that he has been speaking with the Red Sox is perhaps itself notable. Fuld was hired to his current position by former Phillies GM Matt Klentak, though since Klentak is no longer running Philadelphia’s front office, this could hint at why Fuld may now be open to exploring job opportunities on other teams.

Fuld has never worked as a coach or manager at any level, making him an interesting contrast to a World Series-winning manager like Cora. The unknown candidate, whether it’s Rowson or Kelly, would also be a first-time manager.  Rowson has worked as Miami’s bench coach for a season and over a decade of experience as a Major League hitting coach and minor league hitting instructor.  Since retiring from playing after the 2016 season, Kelly spent two season as a scout for the Tigers before moving onto coaching roles with the Astros and Pirates.

Latest On Red Sox, Alex Cora

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One year after his ouster in Boston, former Red Sox manager Alex Cora continues to look like a serious candidate for their current opening in the dugout. Cora had an in-person meeting with Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and general manager Brian O’Halloran last Friday as they seek a replacement for fired manager Ron Roenicke, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports. They met in Cora’s native Puerto Rico, according to Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com.

This could set up a second Red Sox stint for Cora, who managed the team from 2018-19 and led it to a World Series title (’18) and a 192-132 regular-season record. Despite the success the Red Sox had under Cora, the two sides parted ways last winter after Major League Baseball gave him a one-year suspension him for his role in Houston’s 2017 sign-stealing scandal (Cora was the Astros’ bench coach then). Cora’s now eligible to return.

Along with Cora, the Red Sox have narrowed their search to Marlins bench coach James Rowson, Pirates bench coach Don Kelly, Yankees bench coach Carlos Mendoza and Phillies player information coordinator Sam Fuld. Cora’s the only member of the group with major league managerial experience. Industry sources view him as the favorite for the Boston job, per Cotillo.

Red Sox Decline Option On Martin Perez

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The Red Sox have declined their option on left-hander Martín Pérez, per various reporters (including Alex Speier of the Boston Globe). If exercised, the option would’ve paid Pérez $6.85MM, as Chris Cotillo of MassLive breaks down (via Twitter). Instead, he’ll receive a $500K buyout and hit free agency.

The 29-year-old becomes one of the younger starters on the market. Once viewed as a key long-term rotation piece in the Rangers’ organization, Pérez has seen his stock fall off in recent seasons. He continued to log unexciting production in 2020, pitching to a 4.50 ERA with subpar strikeout (17.6%) and walk (10.7%) rates.

To his credit, Pérez did reliably take the ball for the Sox every fifth day, as he did with the Twins in 2019. The southpaw has never posted great strikeout-to-walk ratios and has seen his ground-ball rate fall off over the years, but he continues to induce soft contact. Pérez’s 86.3 MPH opponents’ average exit velocity this year ranked in the 85th percentile, per Statcast.

Report: Five Likely Finalists In Red Sox Managerial Search

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Of the many names interviewed for the Red Sox managerial vacancy, the field seems to have been narrowed to five.  MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link) reports that the likely list of finalists includes Red Sox manager Alex Cora, Marlins bench coach James Rowson, Pirates bench coach Don Kelly, Yankees bench coach Carlos Mendoza, and a new candidate to the race — former big league outfielder Sam Fuld, currently the Phillies’ director of integrative baseball performance.

Fuld has spent the last three years in Philadelphia’s front office, and he has often been mentioned as a future manager.  Heyman’s report would suggest that Fuld has interviewed for the Boston job, which seems like an obvious step except for the fact that Fuld has declined multiple opportunities to interview for managerial positions in the past.  Just last winter, for instance, Fuld passed on talking with the Pirates, Cubs, and Mets.

With baseball’s trend towards hiring younger managers who are only recently retired from their playing days, Fuld checks both boxes — he turns 39 later this month and officially retired in 2017.  He doesn’t have any official coaching or managing experience, but Fuld does have something of a unique skillset in his role as a bridge between the Phils’ analytics department.  Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom also has a past relationship with Fuld, as Bloom was working in the Rays’ front office when Fuld played with Tampa Bay from 2011-13.

Reports from Saturday indicated that the Red Sox had interviewed both Kelly and Mendoza a second time, and of course there has been speculation over Cora’s potential return basically since the moment he was fired in January.  Cora’s one-year suspension for his role in the Astros sign-stealing scandal was officially up after the World Series, and the Sox wasted little time in getting in touch with their former skipper.

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