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Red Sox Notes: Bogaerts, Payroll, Sale, Catchers

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Following a startling afternoon report that the Red Sox would “listen” to offers on franchise cornerstones Xander Bogaerts, Rick Porcello, and Jackie Bradley Jr., presumably in order to clear payroll space for upgrades elsewhere on the diamond, the BoSox brass spent much of the evening in equivocation.  Indeed, NBC Sports Boston’s Evan Drellich reports that the defending champs would need to be “blown away” to deal their star shortstop, and the notion that they’re “actively shopping” these players is “overblown.”  Replacing the 26-year-old Bogaerts, who’s posted an exceptional 17.4 fWAR over the last four seasons, would be nearly impossible, and the rental market, at least in recent times, leaves little to be desired.  Boston, though, will face a number of tough decisions with core players in the upcoming seasons: after all, nearly half of the team’s projected 25-man roster is set to hit free agency by the conclusion of 2020 season.

In other news from Beantown . . .

  • Both Alex Speier of the Boston Globe and Chad Jennings of The Athletic offer insight into the potential mass exodus set to hit the club after the 2019 and 2020 seasons.  Each of Bogaerts, Porcello, Chris Sale, and possibly J.D. Martinez (if he elects to exercise his opt-out) are free agents after next season, with Bradley and Mookie Betts set to hit the market the following year.  Though the club’s annual reserves match (and often surpass) that of any other MLB team, keeping all these players in the fold seems altogether unlikely: “I do caution, and the one thing I keep talking about, is that it’s just from a financial perspective and rule perspective, it’s not going to be possible to keep everybody that we have,” GM Dave Dombrowski said. “You have to realize that if anybody is signed long term now, it may have an effect on some other things that you may do later on.”  It seems prudent, then, to cull from at least two of the lower-profile members of the group (which includes a half-dozen or so other contributors), though Porcello, with his $21.1MM salary for next season, and Bradley, with declining performance in the box, may not yield the assets the BoSox desire.
  • Drellich, in a separate report, cites sources claiming that lefty Chris Sale would be “open” to extension talks, and perhaps more so than “most players of his caliber.”  The 29-year-old, of course, just completed one of the most impressive seasons in AL history and is on a surefire hall-of-fame trajectory; the figures, then, are sure to be astronomical, but neither the team nor Dombrowski have shied away from huge starting-pitcher payouts in the past.
  • Christopher Smith of MLB.com reports that the Sox “prefer to trade” one of their three catchers before Spring Training but “are willing” to hold on to each. Blake Swihart, long the subject of trade rumors across the baseball landscape, continued to disappoint at the plate in 2018, while platoon mates Christian Vazquez and Sandy Leon combined for a dreadful -1.7 fWAR. The position seems a clear target of upgrade for the defending champs, though dealing from their current surfeit may be challenging, to say the least.

Latest On Jackie Bradley Jr.

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10:07pm: Rob Bradford of WEEI passes along different information, tweeting that the D-backs are not targeting Bradley.

5:37pm: Red Sox center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. is near the top of the Diamondbacks’ wish list, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe reports on Twitter.

There’s a clear connection to Bradley in Arizona, whose general manager, Mike Hazen, worked in Boston’s front office before taking the helm of the Diamondbacks in 2016. The 28-year-old Bradley’s also familiar with Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo from his time on the Red Sox’s coaching staff. And the world champion Red Sox are reportedly taking offers on Bradley and other veterans, perhaps making a JBJ trade a realistic possibility. It’s worth noting the Red Sox would still be loaded in the outfield even without Bradley, which could make him expendable in the team’s estimation.

Arizona’s need for a center fielder is obvious, on the other hand, as previous starter A.J. Pollock is now a free agent and is sure to price himself out of the desert. Bradley, meanwhile, has two years of arbitration eligibility remaining and is projected to make a reasonable $7.9MM next season. Bradley’s coming off his third straight campaign with at least 2.2 fWAR, having totaled 2.8 as he combined passable offense (.234/.314/.403 with 13 home runs and 17 steals in 535 plate appearances) with another year of plus defense.

Red Sox, Gorkys Hernandez Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Red Sox have agreed to a minor league contract with outfielder Gorkys Hernandez, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports. Hernandez would earn $1MM in the majors, Speier adds.

The 31-year-old Hernandez spent the past three seasons in San Francisco, where he amassed a particularly high number of plate appearances from 2017-18. After going without a home run in 348 trips to the plate two years ago, the right-handed Hernandez exploded for 15 in 451 PAs last season. However, Hernandez still offered below-average overall production, batting .234/.295/.357 (83 wRC+). In all, he’s just a .234/.295/.357 hitter (77 wRC+) in 1,034 major league PAs, though he has stolen 20 bases – including eight in 2018.

While Hernandez doesn’t pose much of a threat at the plate, he is capable of lining up at all three outfield positions. Most of Hernandez’s work has come in center field, where he has totaled minus-10 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-0.6 Ultimate Zone Rating in 1,389 innings. Despite his versatility, Hernandez is facing an uphill climb to crack his new club’s roster, given the presences of outfielders Mookie Betts, Andrew Benintendi, Jackie Bradley Jr. and J.D. Martinez. Bradley’s name has come up in trade rumors, however, and if he’s dealt, it could increase Hernandez’s chances of making the team.

Report: Red Sox Taking Offers On Rick Porcello, Others

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The defending World Series champion Red Sox are at least opening the door to some surprising sell-side moves, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (Twitter links). Though the club is obviously not going to divert from its attempt to repeat, it seems there’s a movement afoot to pare back some existing payroll.

The true end goal here isn’t clear. Boston already splurged to re-sign Nathan Eovaldi, giving him a four-year deal at a $17MM rate of pay, and it doesn’t seem as if the club is interested in doing anything that would substantially harm its competitive position. The division, after all, promises to be quite competitive — to say nothing of the top-heavy American League.

Still, the Sox are said to be “openly listening” to offers for veteran right-hander Rick Porcello, who’ll earn $21MM this year before reaching free agency. Yet more surprisingly, the club is said to be “willing to talk about” star shortstop Xander Bogaerts (projected $11.9MM arbitration salary in final season of eligibility) and quality center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. ($7.9MM, second-to-last season of eligibility).

Parting with any of these players would clearly harm the team’s 2019 roster — unless, that is, there was a plan in place to add a different piece to fill the opening. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets that the idea would indeed be to repurpose any payroll savings, perhaps opening the door to some bullpen reinforcements.

While that’s sensible from one perspective, it still feels like an incomplete picture. After all, it’s not as if the Boston organization has high-quality fill-in pieces knocking down the door.  In Porcello’s case, at least, there’s an argument that the Red Sox have sufficient depth after bringing back Eovaldi, but it obviously wouldn’t be as good as the sturdy 29-year-old. Bogaerts is not remotely replaceable from within; presumably, the club would go onto the market for a different option at short. As for Bradley, it’s easy to imagine Andrew Benintendi taking over in center, but that’d still leave an outfield opening that would need to be addressed in some regard (perhaps in part through reliance upon Steve Pearce and other existing reserves).

It’s fair to wonder just what the Sox could anticipate recouping in hypothetical trades. Porcello’s hefty salary limits his appeal, making him more of a candidate to be dealt for another spendy veteran or perhaps a limited prospect return. Bogaerts has plenty of rental value, though the Red Sox would be dealing with fellow contenders to find a fit and there’s limited demand at the shortstop position. Bradley is controllable fr two years and could fit in plenty of places, though his offensive numbers have been down and he’s not the type of piece that most teams would go wild to acquire — particularly with some similar players potentially also available via trade.

Generally speaking, boosting the farm would certainly be of interest, but it’d be quite tricky to do that and save money without significantly damaging the team’s immediate competitiveness. Sussing out how this potential strategy could make sense in the aggregate is frankly difficult to do without contemplating multiple successive transactions. It’s certainly a fascinating development for the Red Sox and the broader market, but it is tough to guess at this point how it might all play out.

Dombrowski On Paying For Closers, Catcher Trades

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  • It doesn’t seem as if the Red Sox will be re-signing Craig Kimbrel, as club president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski told reporters (including MLB.com’s Ian Browne and MassLive.com’s Chris Cotillo) today that “we’re not looking to make a big expenditure in” the closer position.  Past reports indicated that Boston had only limited interest in bringing back the star closer, and with Kimbrel seeking a six-year deal, it seems as if his asking price will simply be too high for the team’s liking.  If Kimbrel isn’t returning, the Red Sox are looking around for other relief options, and Dombrowski noted that they would prefer inking a closer to a short-term deal.  It also isn’t out of the question that the Sox use Ryan Brasier or Matt Barnes as a closer next season, though Dombrowski said it’s too early in the offseason for such determinations.
  • Dombrowski also mentioned that the Red Sox had received interest in catchers Christian Vazquez, Blake Swihart, and Sandy Leon, and that the club is “open to discussing” any of the three in trade talks.  None of the trio are coming off good reasons, though Leon and Vazquez have a lot of defensive upside and Swihart may yet be able to unlock his prospect potential with a change of scenery.

Reds Claim Robby Scott

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The Reds have acquired lefty Robby Scott from the Red Sox, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). It seems to be a straight waiver claim, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweets.

Scott, 29, was a useful contributor in Boston in 2017, when he worked to a 3.79 ERA in 35 2/3 innings. He carried 7.8 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in that stretch, managing a healthy 11.0% swinging-strike rate despite only possessing an upper-eighties fastball.

Clearly, though, the Boston organization didn’t have much of a need for Scott last year and desired to make better use of his 40-man spot this winter. Scott struggled through nine MLB appearances in 2018 but did turn in a nice season at Triple-A, where he spun 48 1/3 innings of 1.86 ERA ball with 11.7 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9.

Red Sox Interested In Adam Ottavino

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It’s “believed” that free-agent reliever Adam Ottavino is near the top of Boston’s bullpen wish list, Jon Heyman of Fancred tweets. The same is true of the previously reported David Robertson, per Heyman. With closer Craig Kimbrel and setup man Joe Kelly as their best remaining free agents, it’s no surprise that the world champion Red Sox are exploring the top of the market for bullpen help. Those two led full-time Red Sox relievers in innings pitched last season, and Kimbrel was particularly effective. The 33-year-old Ottavino may have been even better, though, as the former Rockie was among the game’s elite relievers in 2018 despite having to pitch his home games at the hitter-friendly Coors Field. Ottavino placed fourth among relievers in average exit velocity against (84.9 mph), sixth in fWAR (2.0), 11th in K/9 (12.98, against 4.17 BB/9), 13th in innings (77 2/3) and 17th in ERA (2.43), putting himself in position to score a lucrative contract in free agency.

Red Sox Re-Sign Nathan Eovaldi

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4:22pm: The deal has been formally announced. Per Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (via Twitter), Eovaldi’s guarantee will actually be an even $68MM over the four-year term.

“We’re very happy to have Nathan back with us,” president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said in a press release. “He did a tremendous job for us last season, playing a significant role in helping us win the division and the World Series. His performance in the Postseason was outstanding, both as a starting pitcher and as a reliever.”

8:53am: The Red Sox have struck a deal to bring back righty Nathan Eovaldi, pending a physical, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). The ACES client has secured a four-year, $67.5MM contract, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter).

This was a match that MLBTR predicted in its listing of the top fifty MLB free agents. Frankly, that was one of the easier situations to predict, given Eovaldi’s stirring run for the World Series champs. MLBTR guessed Eovaldi would secure a $60MM guarantee over four years, a contract level that seemed quite ambitious at the time but has grown more and more plausible over the course of the winter.

Both the upside and the uncertainty that come with Eovaldi’s flamethrowing right arm are well-known. Having witnessed him up close for several months, concluding with a trial by fire on the game’s biggest stage, the Boston organization was well-placed to decide whether Eovaldi is worth the risk.

That’s not to say there weren’t other pursuers. Ultimately, the Astros, Phillies, Yankees, Brewers, Braves, Angels, White Sox, Blue Jays, Giants and Padres all reportedly had some level of involvement. That wide variety of suitors no doubt drove the bidding to heights that would have been all but unimaginable at the start of the 2018 season.

Once Patrick Corbin went off the board, the sprint for Eovaldi was on. Red Sox president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski, however, clearly had decided that Eovaldi was a top priority. With deep pockets and the allure of a repeat title run aiding his cause, Dombrowski was able to get his target after a final push last night.

If any team is situated to take another shot on Eovaldi, it’s certainly the Sox. He has twice undergone Tommy John surgery, needed another elbow procedure at the outset of the 2018 season, and only once has made over thirty starts in a MLB campaign. Eovaldi’s career ERA of 4.16, compiled over 850 total frames, speaks to his years of generally unfulfilled promise with the Dodgers, Marlins, and Yankees. Noted surgeon Dr. Christopher Ahmad provided an optimistic viewpoint on Eovaldi’s outlook, and fielding-independent pitching measures generally valued the righty above his results, but there’s no denying the risk that comes with this kind of background.

That said, the ceiling here is quite compelling. Eovaldi hasn’t even yet turned 29 and sustained an average heater of over 97 mph last year. While he was a bit homer-prone during his time to open the season with the Rays, which hurt his outcomes even as he otherwise showed compelling stuff, the seven-year MLB vet was excellent down the stretch in 2018. He ultimately tossed 54 regular season frames of 3.33 ERA ball with 8.0 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 for the Sox. Over the course of the full campaign, Eovaldi’s swinging-strike rate surged to a career-high 10.7% while he turned in a sturdy 45.6% groundball rate that sat just under his personal mean.

No doubt that late run boosted Eovaldi’s stock, but  it was his postseason showing that cemented his status as a top free agent arm. Eovaldi ended up turning in 22 1/3 frames over the team’s three series. He was excellent every time he took the ball, whether as a starter, late-inning reliever, or long man. Eovaldi ended up permitting just four earned runs on 15 hits and three walks while racking up 16 strikeouts.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Negotiations Between Red Sox, Nathan Eovaldi Reportedly “Intensifying”

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10:15pm: While there’s no deal between the two sides just yet, a reunion is indeed becoming “increasingly likely,” per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (Twitter link).

5:41pm: Talks between the Red Sox and free-agent righty Nathan Eovaldi are “intensifying,” Robert Murray of The Athletic reports (via Twitter). Fancred’s Jon Heyman suggests that talks could reach as high as four years and an annual value close to $17MM (Twitter link). The Red Sox are one of many teams who’ve been prominently linked to the right-hander, who starred for them following a midseason trade from the Rays.

Eovaldi, 29 in February, has also been tied to the Astros and Yankees in recent days, returned from Tommy John surgery in 2018 and delivered 111 regular-season innings of 3.81 ERA ball with 8.2 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9. The flamethrowing righty was particularly impressive with the Red Sox, for whom he pitched to a 3.33 ERA in 54 innings to close out the season before dazzling with a 1.61 ERA in 22 1/3 postseason frames. Eovaldi worked both as a starter and a high-leverage, multi-inning reliever in October, regularly pumping triple-digit fastballs as he became one of manager Alex Cora’s most trusted playoff weapons.

For the Red Sox, he’d presumably slot into the rotation behind Chris Sale, David Price and Rick Porcello, though some clubs have reportedly showed interest in utilizing Eovaldi in a high-leverage relief role. Given Boston’s uncertainty beyond the top three in the rotation — Eduardo Rodriguez, Steven Wright and Brian Johnson are among the options for the final two spots — it seems logical to expect that Eovaldi’s high-octane arm would serve to deepen the starting staff.

Beyond the three aforementioned clubs, Eovaldi has also reportedly drawn interest from the likes of the Padres, Brewers, Braves, Angels, Phillies, White Sox, Blue Jays and Giants.

Dombrowski On Red Sox' Interest In Nathan Eovaldi

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If there was any doubt as to the Red Sox’ desire to bring back Nathan Eovaldi after his strong run with the club late in 2018, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski put it to rest in comments today. As Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com was among those to report, Dombrowski confirmed that the organization has been engaged with Eovaldi’s camp this winter — though he also cautioned that “there’s a lot of interest” in the righty leaguewide. How far the Sox will go in the bidding remains to be seen, but Dombrowski said that Eovaldi is “a guy that we love.” With only a few major needs to be accounted for, the defending World Series champs seem a prime potential landing spot — as we predicted at the outset of the offseason.

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