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AL East Notes: Rays, Orioles, Red Sox

By Nick Deeds | April 30, 2023 at 9:17am CDT

Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times recently dug into the factors behind the Rays’ decision to demote top pitching prospect Taj Bradley to Triple-A last week. Topkin notes that Bradley’s call to the majors came primarily due to the young right-hander being on full rest when starters were needed to sub in for Zach Eflin and Jeffrey Springs. With Eflin back in action and bulk arms Yonny Chirinos and Josh Fleming joining him, lefty Shane McClanahan and right-hander Drew Rasmussen as rotation options, Bradley was no longer needed to fill out the rotation in Tampa.

Despite Bradley’s strong trio of starts in the big leagues, where he posted a 3.52 ERA and 2.65 FIP over 15 1/3 innings of work, that left the Rays free to send Bradley back to the minors. Topkin highlights Bradley’s need to adjust to pitching every fifth day and maintain his velocity throughout the season as major factors in the decision, though he also notes that the Rays are hoping to avoid a situation similar to the one the Nationals had with Stephen Strasburg in 2012. That season, the club made the difficult decision to shut down their young ace ahead of the playoffs despite a 3.16 ERA in 28 starts, as the right-hander was on an innings limit following Tommy John surgery. Topkin notes that Bradley through 133 1/3 innings in 2022, and may be limited to 160 innings this season.

One other potential factor Topkin mentions is service time. By optioning Bradley, the Rays have assured themselves an additional season of team control over the 22-year-old, who now figures to be a free agent for the first time during the 2029-2030 offseason. That, of course, could change if Bradley finishes in the top two of Rookie of the Year voting this season, as he would be awarded a full year of service time in that case.

More from around the AL East…

  • The Orioles today optioned infielder Joey Ortiz to Triple-A, recalling outfielder Kyle Stowers, per a team announcement. Ortiz, who was promoted to the big league club just this past Thursday, appeared in just three games for the Orioles during his first big league cup of coffee, recording two hits and striking out once in 8 at-bats. Stowers, meanwhile, impressed with a .253/.306/.418 slash line in 34 games at the big league level last season but did not record a hit in six at-bats with the big league club prior to being optioned to Triple-A during the second week of the season.
  • The Red Sox expect to be without their closer for the next few days, as veteran Kenley Jansen noted to reporters (including Alex Speier of The Boston Globe) that he will be unavailable until at least Tuesday after pitching through back spasms in last night’s blown save against the Guardians. John Schreiber and Josh Winckowski have worked the late innings alongside Jansen in the early going this season, but with Chris Martin likely coming off the injured list today, the 36-year-old veteran may get the ninth inning while Jansen is down.
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Baltimore Orioles Boston Red Sox Notes Tampa Bay Rays Joey Ortiz Kenley Jansen Kyle Stowers Taj Bradley

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Red Sox Likely To Activate Chris Martin From 15-Day IL On Sunday

By Mark Polishuk | April 29, 2023 at 8:15pm CDT

Chris Martin looks to be on the verge of a return to the Red Sox bullpen, as manager Alex Cora told reporters (including Alex Speier of the Boston Globe) that the reliever will likely be activated from the 15-day injured list prior to Sunday’s game with the Guardians.  The corresponding move has already been made, as the Boston Globe’s Julian McWilliams reports that right-hander Kaleb Ort has been optioned to Triple-A.

The Sox retroactively placed Martin on the 15-day IL back on April 13, so he’ll return to the field in just slightly more than the minimum 15 days.  Right shoulder inflammation sidelined Martin, but an MRI revealed no structure damage, and it seems as though Martin’s discomfort subsided in relatively quick fashion.  It’s possible he might have been back exactly after 15 days, were it not for a stomach bug that delayed his appearance in a Triple-A rehab outing.  Martin finally took the hill on Friday, and assuming that he doesn’t report any setbacks prior to tomorrow’s game, the Red Sox will reinstate the veteran righty.

Martin signed a two-year, $17.5MM free agent deal with the Sox in December, after posting strong numbers with four different teams (the Rangers, Braves, Cubs, and Dodger) from 2019-22.  With a 2.57 ERA over his first seven innings with Boston, Martin looked to be continuing that trend, though he had an uncharacteristically low two strikeouts over those seven frames.

Ort has struggled to a 7.30 ERA over 12 1/3 relief innings this season, including a rough performance on April 25 that saw him allow five runs (four earned) over just one-third of an inning against the Orioles.  Inserting Martin in Ort’s place will certainly help Boston’s relief corps, and Martin’s experience in high-leverage situations will be particularly useful if there’s any uncertainty over Kenley Jansen’s health status.  Jansen battled some back stiffness during today’s game, as the closer blew his first save of the season and labored through 29 pitches during his inning of work.

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Boston Red Sox Transactions Chris Martin Kaleb Ort Kenley Jansen

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Red Sox Place Garrett Whitlock On IL With Ulnar Neuritis

By Darragh McDonald | April 28, 2023 at 2:02pm CDT

The Red Sox announced today that right-hander Garrett Whitlock has been placed on the 15-day injured list with right elbow ulnar neuritis. Fellow righty Brayan Bello was recalled to take his spot on the active roster.

The club didn’t provide any more information about Whitlock’s injury, so the severity isn’t publicly known at this time. It’s possible that they are still doing more testing, as ulnar neuritis comes with a wide range of possible outcomes. The ulnar nerve is commonly known as the “funny bone” due to the tingling sensation it causes when agitated. Neuritis is the medical term for when there is inflammation of the nerve.

It’s too early to draw conclusions but the diagnosis is nonetheless concerning. Rays left-hander Jeffrey Springs was recently diagnosed with ulnar neuritis and just a few days later was reported to require Tommy John surgery. That’s not to say that Whitlock is inevitably headed down the same path, as Blue Jays right-hander Jordan Romano was diagnosed with the same ailment in April of 2021 but was back after just 10 days.

Whitlock already had Tommy John surgery back in 2019 but said he isn’t concerned he’s headed down that path again. He told reporters, including Alex Speier of the Boston Globe, he felt some tingling recently but doesn’t think it’s at all similar to his torn UCL from years ago. He’s hasn’t had an MRI yet.

That’s surely encouraging, but Whitlock and the Red Sox will be in wait-and-see mode until it can be discovered exactly which part of the spectrum his injury is on. He’s attempting to make the transition to full-time starting this year after working primarily in relief for the past two seasons. He began the year on the injured list after being delayed in spring by last year’s hip surgery. He’s only made three starts on the year so far because of that, registering a 6.19 ERA in that small sample.

He posted a 1.96 ERA out of the bullpen in 2021 after being plucked from the Yankees in the Rule 5 draft. That instilled enough confidence in the club that they signed him to an $18.75MM extension through 2026 with two club options after that. They then tried to stretch him out last year but injuries eventually pushed him back into the bullpen.

Whitlock was scheduled to start tomorrow’s game but that will now presumably fall to Bello, who just started for the big league club on Sunday. The young prospect is seen as a future building block of the rotation but has posted a 9.82 ERA in his two starts so far this year. Both Bello and Whitlock began the year on the IL and the club briefly ran out a six-man rotation when they returned but Bello was sent down earlier this week. He’d normally have to stay down for 15 days after being optioned but an exception is made when another player goes on the IL.

It’s possible that it could be another short stay in the rotation for Bello alongside Chris Sale, Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck and Corey Kluber. Lefty James Paxton has been on the IL all year but has made four rehab starts already as he tries to get back into game shape. He’s only made six major league starts since the end of 2019, with Tommy John surgery wiping out most of his 2021. He was working his way back to the mound in 2022 when he suffered a lat strain that killed his chances. His subsequent attempt at a return this spring was set back by a hamstring injury.

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Boston Red Sox Transactions Brayan Bello Garrett Whitlock

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Red Sox Claim Justin Garza

By Steve Adams | April 28, 2023 at 1:20pm CDT

The Red Sox have claimed right-hander Justin Garza off waivers from the Angels, per an announcement from both clubs. The Red Sox had an open spot on the 40-man roster so a corresponding transaction isn’t necessary. Garza has been optioned to Triple-A Worcester.

Garza, 29, was designated for assignment a week ago when the Halos selected the contracts of Chad Wallach and Austin Warren. He didn’t pitch for the Angels at the MLB level this season but opened the year with their Triple-A club, where he tossed 8 1/3 innings with four runs allowed on six hits and four walks. Garza’s stay with the Angels organization was rather brief. The Guardians outrighted him off the 40-man roster back in November, at which point he elected free agency and signed a split Major League contract with the Angels, thus placing him on their 40-man roster.

In 2022, Garza made his big league debut with the Guardians, pitching to a 4.71 ERA with a roughly average 22.7% strikeout rate against a bleak 14.1% walk rate. Garza sits at 95 mph with his heater and has missed bats at a high level in Triple-A (29.2% strikeout rate), but command has been an issue for him even in the minors (12.2% walk rate).

The Sox rank 13th in the Majors with a 3.58 ERA from their bullpen, though it’s a decidedly top-heavy unit. Kenley Jansen, Josh Winckowski, John Schreiber and Kutter Crawford have all gotten out to excellent starts, but the rest of the group has been severely lacking. Ryan Brasier and Kaleb Ort, in particular, have been hit hard. Offseason signee Chris Martin, meanwhile, is on the injured list and Zack Kelly’s season is in jeopardy due to elbow surgery. Garza will give the Sox some depth with good life on his fastball, but for now he’ll head to Worcester and look to refine his command while awaiting an opportunity.

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Boston Red Sox Los Angeles Angels Transactions Justin Garza

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Red Sox Place Yu Chang On IL With Hamate Fracture

By Darragh McDonald | April 25, 2023 at 3:00pm CDT

The Red Sox announced that infielder Yu Chang has been placed on the 10-day injured list due to a left hamate fracture. Infielder Enmanuel Valdéz was recalled in a corresponding move. Christopher Smith of MassLive previously reported the components of the move. Chang will have surgery and should be out roughly six weeks, per Rob Bradford of WEEI.

Chang, 27, has been on quite a rollercoaster over the past year and a bit. He started out 2022 with the Guardians, the only organization he had ever played for up until that point. But he had exhausted his option years without truly establishing himself in the big leagues. He still had appeal to other clubs based on his past prospect status and defensive versatility, eventually getting opportunities from the Pirates, Rays and Red Sox, failing to hold a roster spot for very long at any stop. He finished the year with a combined .208/.289/.315 batting line and 78 wRC+ between the four clubs.

The Sox non-tendered Chang but later re-signed him to a major league deal in February to help the middle infield mix that had just lost Trevor Story to an internal brace procedure. Chang then went to represent Chinese Taipei in the World Baseball Classic and fared well, hitting .438 and earning the Most Valuable Player award for Pool A. He’s since played 17 games for the Sox, hitting three home runs but walking in just 2.1% of his plate appearances. His current batting line is .136/.174/.341, translating to a wRC+ of 30.

Though Chang was still struggling offensively, his upcoming absence will be notable for the club. He departed last night’s game with wrist pain and today’s news is not welcome. As mentioned up top, Chang will require surgery and an absence of roughly six weeks. For however long he’s out, the Sox will be further depleted in a middle infield that has taken many hits this year. As mentioned, Story has been out all year due to his procedure and it isn’t clear when he’ll be back. Adalberto Mondesí is still working his way back from last year’s torn ACL and also has little clarity on his return. Both players are on the 60-day injured list and aren’t eligible to return until late May. Valdéz will now step up to support the regular starting duo of Enrique Hernández and Christian Arroyo. Valdéz got to make a single-game debut in the majors last week when Chang was on the paternity list.

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Boston Red Sox Transactions Enmanuel Valdez Yu Chang

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Red Sox Option Brayan Bello

By Darragh McDonald | April 24, 2023 at 4:07pm CDT

The Red Sox announced that left-hander Brennan Bernardino has been recalled from Triple-A, with right-hander Brayan Bello optioned in a corresponding move.

The Sox started the season short-handed in the rotation, as all of Bello, Garrett Whitlock and James Paxton started the season on the injured list. That allowed Tanner Houck, who has worked as both a starter and a reliever in recent years, to get a rotation spot out of the gate. Bello and Whitlock returned from the IL recently, giving the club a difficult decision to make since Houck had gotten off to a decent start. Through four outings, he has struck out 25.6% of batters faced while walking 9.3% and getting ground balls on 58.9% of balls in play. Despite those strong peripherals, his 4.29 ERA is fairly average thanks to a 20% HR/FB rate.

Though that’s not exactly ace-level work, he’s still been arguably the club’s best starter this year. Chris Sale has an ERA of 8.00, Corey Kluber is at 8.50, Nick Pivetta at 4.58 and Whitlock at 6.19. Bello has only made two starts but is at 9.82. Although Houck has frequently moved from the rotation to the bullpen and back, it would have been difficult to bump him right now when he’s arguably been the club’s best starter this year. The club has been running out a six-man rotation recently but has multiple off-days coming up on the schedule, which would make it challenging to continue that. Today’s move provides a bit of clarity on the path forward, allowing Houck to hold that rotation spot for now and see if he can stretch his results over a larger sample.

As for Bello, he hasn’t got out to a great start this year, getting shut down in spring with forearm tightness and missing the beginning of the season. He returned recently but allowed eight earned runs over 7 1/3 innings in his first two starts. He’ll head down to Worcester to try to get into a groove again after the bumpy start to the campaign. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him back up in short order, as he posted a 2.34 WRA in the minors last year and was a fixture of top prospect lists before graduating last year.

Even if Bello succeeds in Worcester, there might be some crowding in the Boston rotation with Sale, Kluber, Pivetta, Whitlock and Houck having the five spots for now. In addition to that, Paxton is rehabbing in the minors, though his last outing was a disaster. He tossed 43 pitches while recording only two outs and allowed seven earned runs.

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Boston Red Sox Transactions Brayan Bello Brennan Bernardino

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Latest On The Red Sox Rotation

By Nick Deeds | April 23, 2023 at 8:10am CDT

Rotation plans for the Red Sox in the near term have come into focus recently, as manager Alex Cora told reporters (including MassLive’s Chris Cotillo) that right-hander Tanner Houck is likely to start the club’s game against the Orioles on Wednesday, though that could change if he’s needed out of the bullpen before then.

This doesn’t come as much of a surprise, as reports ahead of the activation of righty Brayan Bello from the 15-day IL last week indicated that the club could go with a six-man rotation at least through the off-day on this coming Thursday before transitioning to a five-man rotation that would likely leave Houck as the odd man out. Still, Cotillo goes on to note that the club does have other options: righty Nick Pivetta could be moved to the bullpen instead, or Bello, who was shelled for five runs in 2 2/3 innings of work in his first start coming off the IL, could be demoted to Triple-A.

Of the six members of the Red Sox rotation, Houck has actually been the best starter this season in terms of performance. In 21 innings of work, Houck has posted a solid 4.29 ERA, 11% better than league average by measure of ERA+, and a nearly matching 4.26 FIP. His strikeout (25.5%) and walk (9.3%) rates are largely in line with his career norms, as is his BABIP (.283). The most significant change from previous seasons for Houck in the early going this year is his groundball rate. Houck entered the season with a career groundball rate of 49.3%, but in his four starts this season, that figure has jumped all the way up to 58.9%, good for sixth in the majors among players with at least 20 IP.

While Houck’s start this season is encouraging, Cotillo notes that his success in a multi-inning relief role last year, when he posted a 2.70 ERA in 43 1/3 innings out of the bullpen, makes him a natural choice for the move. Meanwhile, Smith notes that Pivetta has resisted suggestions he could be ticketed for the bullpen after some early season struggles. Pivetta has yet to finish the sixth inning this season in a start and has posted a 4.58 ERA over 19 2/3 innings this season in spite of a deflated .275 BABIP that helps to explain his more worrisome 5.19 FIP.

Even in the event that Houck is ultimately sent to the bullpen, Boston brass will have to make another tough decision when lefty James Paxton returns from the IL, which he could do fairly soon. Paxton, Cotillo notes, has never appeared out of the bullpen in his career and struggled badly out of the bullpen in a rehab stint this season, allowing seven runs in less than an inning of work. With Paxton an unlikely bullpen candidate, the Red Sox are likely to once again be left to decide between a six-man rotation and bumping either Pivetta or Bello from the group when the veteran lefty is ready to be activated.

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Boston Red Sox Brayan Bello Nick Pivetta Tanner Houck

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2023-24 Player Option/Opt-Out Update: April Edition

By Steve Adams | April 19, 2023 at 9:40pm CDT

Not long ago, any given year in Major League Baseball might have seen a handful of players have player options to decide upon at the end of a season. Opt-out clauses have slowly worked their way into normalcy among contract negotiations, however, and what was once a perk typically reserved for star players has become more commonly used as a means of either sealing a deal with mid-range free agents or in many instances, gaming the luxury tax. Player options are considered guaranteed money, after all, so it’s become common for clubs on the precipice of luxury penalization to negotiate complex player options that tamp down a contract’s average annual value even though they’re unlikely to ever be exercised.

For the purposes of this look around the league, there’s little sense in separating opt-outs from player options. The two are effectively the same, though “opt-out” typically refers to an out clause where there are multiple years remaining on the contract and “player option” generally refers to an individual decision on the forthcoming season. Both are considered guaranteed money for luxury purposes, and both ultimately come down to the player’s preference, risk tolerance, etc.

At their core, opt-out provisions aren’t particularly different from the much longer-accepted club options that teams have negotiated for years. Teams guarantee a certain number of dollars over a certain number of years, and if the player continues performing at a high enough level, they’ll exercise a club option that’s typically locked in at a below-market price. If not, the player will be bought out and sent back to free agency. Player options and opt-outs are merely the inverse; the player/agent negotiate a certain length and annual value but reserve the right to opt back into the market if the player continues to perform at a high level. It’s two sides of the same coin.

There are more players with the opportunity to opt out of their contract this offseason, by way of a one-year player option or a multi-year opt-out, than ever before. As such, we’ll be keeping tabs on these situations throughout the season. Short of a major injury, performance this early in the season isn’t likely to have a major impact on a player’s likelihood of opting out or forgoing that right, but it’s worth listing out which players will have the opportunity, what their contracts look like, and at least taking an early glance at how they’re performing.

Note: All stats through play on Tuesday.

Position Players

  • Tucker Barnhart, C, Cubs ($3.25MM player option): Barnhart’s deal was announced as a two-year, $6.5MM contract, though he also obtained the right to opt out after 2023, effectively rendering 2024 a player option. He’s 5-for-16 with a walk and four strikeouts through just 17 plate appearances as the backup to Yan Gomes. Barnhart got this guarantee on the heels of a dismal .221/.287/.267 showing with the Tigers in 2022, so with even a decent season he’ll have reason to opt out and try his luck again amid a thin group of free-agent catchers.
  • Josh Bell, 1B/DH, Guardians ($16.5MM player option): Bell limped to the finish line with the Padres after being traded over from the Nationals alongside Juan Soto in last summer’s blockbuster, and he hasn’t yet found his footing in 76 plate appearances with the Guardians. It’s a small sample, but Bell’s .203/.316/.344 slash looks quite similar to the .192/.316/.271 he mustered with San Diego in 2022. Bell hit 37 homers in 2019 and 27 in 2021, but he hits the ball on the ground far too often for someone with his power and lack of speed. Only one qualified hitter in MLB (Masataka Yoshida) has a higher ground-ball rate than Bell’s staggering 66.7% mark.
  • Trey Mancini, 1B/OF, Cubs ($7MM player option, if he reaches 350 plate appearances): Like Bell, Mancini saw his offensive production crater following a deadline trade (to the Astros) last summer and has not yet recovered in a new setting. Through 60 plate appearances, he’s hitting just .196/.220/.250. While his contract is a two-year, $14MM deal, Mancini can opt out if he reaches 350 plate appearances (i.e., the second year becomes a player option). He isn’t hitting yet, but Mancini is playing regularly and appears to be trending toward earning that right.
  • Javier Baez, SS, Tigers (can opt out of remaining four years, $98MM): After turning in a tepid .238/.278/.393 batting line in 590 plate appearances during his first season as a Tiger, Baez would need quite the season to walk away from this kind of cash. So far, he’s hitting .193/.254/.246 in 64 trips to the plate, however. When Baez gets hot, he can go on hot streaks for the ages, but he certainly doesn’t look like he’ll be opting out at season’s end.
  • Justin Turner, 3B/DH, Red Sox ($13.4MM player option): Turner hasn’t found his power yet in Boston, but he’s out to a .277/.385/.385 start with nearly as many walks as strikeouts. His $13.4MM player option comes with a hefty $6.7MM buyout. He’ll turn 39 in November, but as long as he hits reasonably well, he should have more earning power than that $6.7MM net decision.
  • Jorge Soler, OF/DH, Marlins ($9MM player option): Soler’s three-year, $36MM deal in Miami pays him $12MM in 2022, $15MM in 2023 and $9MM in 2024, but he had the right to opt out after each season of the deal. He hit just .207/.295/.400 with 13 homers in 306 plate appearances last year, so there was no way he was taking the first opt-out. He’s already clubbed five dingers in 62 plate appearances in 2023. His .263/.323/.649 slash translates to a 155 wRC+, and his exit velocity and hard-hit rate are through the roof, so his .256 average on balls in play should at least hold steady. Soler is an extremely streaky hitter, so time will tell how much of this early heater he can sustain, but there’s plenty to like about his start, including a reduced strikeout rate.
  • Michael Conforto, OF, Giants ($18MM player option, if he reaches 350 plate appearances): As with Mancini, Conforto is on a two-year deal but gains the right to opt out after one year if he reaches 350 plate appearances. You can call it an opt-out or a player option, but it’s the same mechanism; if Conforto is healthy, he’ll likely get the right to opt out. So far, he’s hitting .220/.373/.439 with a trio of homers in 51 trips to the plate. Conforto has walked nine times in those 51 plate appearances (17.6%), and his chase rate is actually down, so he still has good knowledge of the zone. However, a year-long layoff due to shoulder surgery is perhaps making itself known with a 74.5% contact rate on pitches in the strike zone, as that’s nearly 10 percentage points below his career mark of 84%. Unsurprisingly, Conforto’s 31.4% strikeout rate is a career worst. Some rust was inevitable, though, and the plate discipline and hard contact when he has made contact (94.4 mph exit velo, 52.5% hard-hit rate) are encouraging.
  • Matt Carpenter, 1B/DH, Padres ($5.5MM player option): Carpenter’s stunning return with the Yankees last year was one of the best stories of the summer, but he’s out to a sluggish .152/.317/.273 start with the Padres. He’s chasing off the plate at a 30.3% clip after doing so at a 20.7% rate last summer, and his contact rate on swings off the plate has plummeted from 62.5% to 36.4%. It’s a small sample and there’s time to turn things around, of course, but he’s had a tough start.

Pitchers

  • Andrew Heaney, LHP, Dodgers ($13MM player option): Heaney’s first Rangers start was one to forget (seven earned runs), but his second start was dominant, as he tied an AL record by fanning nine consecutive hitters. If Heaney tops 150 innings and doesn’t finish the year with an injury that’d likely keep him out for the first 60-plus innings of the 2024 season, the value of that player option jumps to $20MM. He hasn’t reached 150 innings since 2018.
  • Seth Lugo, RHP, Padres ($7.5MM player option): Lugo’s return to the rotation has been solid. He’s posted a 2.70 ERA through 16 2/3 frames with strikeout and walk ratios that look similar to his numbers out of the bullpen (24.3% strikeout rate, 7.1% walk rate). It’s anyone’s guess how many innings Lugo will tally after throwing just 228 innings combined from 2019-22, when he was primarily a reliever, but a solid run out of the rotation will position him to turn down that player option in search of a multi-year deal in free agency.
  • Sean Manaea, LHP, Giants ($12.5MM player option): The early ERA isn’t much to look at (4.76 in 11 1/3 innings), but the Giants have Manaea averaging 94.7 mph on his four-seamer. That’s a career-high by a wide margin, as he sat 91.7 mph on a now-scrapped sinker in 2021-22 and 91.1 mph on his four-seamer in 2017-20. Any major velocity gain of this nature is worth keeping an eye on.
  • Nick Martinez, RHP, Padres (team has two-year, $32MM club option; if declined, Martinez has two-year, $16MM player option): Martinez’s strikeout rate, walk rate, home-run rate and velocity have all gone the wrong direction through his first three starts. It’s just 17 2/3 innings, so it could be rendered a footnote if he rebounds and the Padres pick up their hefty option on the righty. Still, it’s not the start he or the Padres wanted.
  • Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, Tigers (can opt out remaining three years, $49MM): E-Rod hasn’t missed bats anywhere near his Boston levels since signing with the Tigers. The lefty still showed good command both in 2022 and so far in 2023, but his 8.7% swinging-strike rate and 20.4% strikeout rate are well shy of the respective 11.6% and 26% marks he posted in his final four years with the Red Sox. Rodriguez’s velocity in 2023 is back up after a slight dip in 2022, but if he can’t get back to missing bats at his prior levels it’ll be an easy call for him to forego that opt-out provision.
  • Max Scherzer, RHP, Mets ($43.333MM player option): Scherzer hasn’t gotten out to his best start, but he posted a 2.29 ERA with gaudy strikeout and walk rates (30.6% and 4.2%) in 145 1/3 frames with the Mets in 2022. He was at the center of controversy after being ejected from today’s start after failing a foreign substance check, though that’s not likely to have any effect on his opt-out decision. Scherzer has already suggested that his opt-out was negotiated in part to ensure that he’d have an opportunity to look elsewhere if the Mets didn’t remain fully committed to winning. That hasn’t been the case under owner Steve Cohen, who’s currently financing the largest payroll and luxury-tax bill in MLB history.
  • Ross Stripling, RHP, Giants ($12.5MM player option): Stripling has been ambushed for 10 runs in his first 12 1/3 innings of work and had been set to operate primarily out of the bullpen before the injury to Alex Wood. It’s not a great start considering the weighty $25MM guarantee on his deal, but he has time to turn things around. A stunning six of the 13 fly-balls Stripling has yielded in 2023 have cleared the fence for a home run, and that rate will surely stabilize over a larger sample. Still, if he’s relegated to long-relief duty for too long, it’ll become difficult for him to even consider his opt-out.
  • Marcus Stroman, RHP, Cubs ($21MM player option): Stroman took a rather atypical contract structure for a 31-year-old free agent, inking a three-year guarantee at a premium annual value with an opt-out after year two. It’s more common to see pitchers that age push for the longest deal possible, but it might work out in Stroman’s favor. He’ll bank $50MM through the contract’s first two seasons, and after a nice 2022 season (3.50 ERA, 3.74 SIERA in 138 2/3 innings), he’s come roaring out of the gates with a 0.75 ERA and vastly improved 26.9% strikeout rate through his first 24 frames. Stroman’s walk rate is also up, and it’s all a small sample for now anyway, but it’s a promising start all the same. He’ll turn 33 in 2024, and if he continues anywhere near the pace he’s set since 2019 (3.15  ERA in 520 innings), he should have no problem topping that $21MM in free agency. He’ll also be ineligible for a qualifying offer, having already received one earlier in his career.
  • Michael Wacha, RHP, Padres (two-year, $32MM club option; if declined, Wacha has $6.5MM player option and $6MM player options in 2025-26): Wacha’s four-year, $26MM deal was effectively just the Padres manipulating the luxury tax by meeting Wacha’s price tag on a multi-year deal but spreading out the term to tamp down the AAV. Wacha’s total guarantee is the type of money one might’ve expected him to land over a two- or perhaps three-year term. By spreading it to four, the Padres could end up avoiding the third luxury-tax bracket. Wacha has a 6.06 ERA through three starts and posted an ERA of 4.76 or worse each season from 2019-21. If he can wind up replicating his strong 2022 results, the Padres might consider picking up their end of the option, but the likelier scenario is that they decline, leaving Wacha with a remaining three years and $19MM, but opt-outs after each season.
  • Chad Green, RHP, Blue Jays (three-year, $27MM club option; if declined, Green has $6.25MM player option; if both decline, team has two-year, $21MM option): Green may have the most convoluted contract of the entire free-agent class. That’s reflective both of his considerable talent and the broad range of outcomes as he works back from last May’s Tommy John surgery. We won’t know have an inkling of how this’ll play out until at least the summer, as Green needs to finish off his rehab. If he can return to peak form (1.83 ERA, 40.7% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate) for three or so months down the stretch, perhaps the Jays would actually consider the three-year, $27MM option. But that’s premium setup man money, and Green will be coming back from a year-long absence with a major surgery on his recent resume. He’ll have a $6.25MM player option if that three-year team option is declined, and that seems far more plausible. The two-year, $21MM option if both parties decline their first options feels only slightly more viable than the Jays’ original 3/27 decision.
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Red Sox’ Zack Kelly To Undergo Elbow Surgery

By Steve Adams | April 19, 2023 at 5:25pm CDT

5:25pm: The Red Sox issued an update to reporters, including Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe. His UCL and brace are both in tact, but he needs an ulnar nerve transposition. Three to five months is the expected range of his recovery, but it also could be longer.

3:27pm: Red Sox right-hander Zack Kelly will undergo right elbow surgery in the coming days, manager Alex Cora announced to the team’s beat this afternoon (Twitter link via Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com). While he won’t require Tommy John surgery, Kelly will require a procedure to repair a previous internal brace that was inserted into his pitching elbow.

Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic tweets that Kelly originally had an internal brace operation — an increasingly common Tommy John alternative that can be performed on some but not all ligament tears (dependent on the extent and placement of the damage) — performed back in 2020. Cora did not indicate whether Kelly might pitch again in 2023, only stating that he’ll be out “for awhile.” Kelly was already placed on the 60-day IL earlier this week when Boston claimed lefty Brennan Bernardino from the Mariners.

The 28-year-old Kelly sustained his current elbow injury when pitching against the Rays last week (video link via MLB.com). After letting go of an errant pitch that plunked infielder Yandy Diaz, Kelly immediately removed his glove, clutched his elbow, and dropped into a crouch. Trainers came to the mound, and an emotional Kelly walked off the field, clearly fearing that he’d incurred a substantial injury. That indeed was the case, as McCaffrey indicates the previously installed brace came detached on that ill-fated pitch. His ligament is intact, but the new procedure will reattach the brace.

The emotion shown is particularly understandable for Kelly, a 28-year-old journeyman who made his big league debut in Boston last season after going undrafted out of college and grinding through six minor league seasons between three organizations before finally getting his first cup of coffee. He pitched 13 2/3 innings with a solid 3.95 ERA in his debut campaign, and he’d tossed another 7 1/3 frames with three runs allowed in 2023. Overall, in 21 Major League innings, Kelly has a 3.86 ERA and 17-to-10 K/BB ratio.

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Red Sox Promote Enmanuel Valdez

By Darragh McDonald | April 19, 2023 at 4:50pm CDT

The Red Sox announced that they have recalled infielder/outfielder Enmanuel Valdez from Triple-A, taking the place of infielder Yu Chang, who has been placed on the paternity list. Valdez himself revealed the news on Instagram prior to the official announcement, as relayed on Twitter by Christopher Smith of MassLive.

Valdez, 24, spent his entire career in the Astros’ organization until he came to the Red Sox as part of the Christian Vázquez trade at last year’s deadline. His minor league career was somewhat unremarkable until a big breakout campaign in 2021. Between High-A and Double-A that year, he hit 26 home runs and slashed .255/.326/.534 for a wRC+ of 122. That continued into 2022, as he was hitting .327/.410/.606 at the time of the trade. His line slipped a bit from there, as he hit .237/.309/.422 after the deal, but he still impressed the Boston brass enough that they targeted him in the deal and then added him to their 40-man roster in November to protect him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft. He was ranked the club’s #19 prospect by Baseball America coming into this year.

The youngster will make his major league debut tonight, as he’s playing second base and batting ninth. The Sox have been playing a bit of musical chairs in their middle infield this season, which started when Trevor Story required internal brace surgery on his throwing elbow in the offseason. With Xander Bogaerts having opted out and signed with the Padres, the club had to turn to backup plans, moving Enrique Hernández in from center field to take over shortstop and partner with Christian Arroyo at second base. Adalberto Mondesí was acquired to be part of the picture but he’s still recovering from last year’s torn ACL. Adam Duvall was signed to cover center field but he’s now dealing with a fractured wrist. Hernandez moved out to center again for a while with Chang taking some starts at short, though Jarren Duran was recently recalled to bolster the outfield mix. With Arroyo dealing with some hamstring issues recently and Chang stepping away, it all got a little more tenuous, which required the recall of Valdez. Bobby Dalbec had been on the roster until he was optioned a few days ago, meaning he isn’t eligible to return until 10 days from that optioning, unless someone goes on the injured list.

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