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Red Sox Extend Rafael Devers

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Jan. 11: The Red Sox have formally announced the contract as a 10-year extension with Devers, spanning the 2024-33 seasons. As reported last night, that keeps his 2023 luxury tax hit at $17.5MM (the sum of the one-year deal he agreed to in order to avoid arbitration), while the $31.35MM luxury hit on his extension will go into effect in 2024.

Jan. 4: The Red Sox and third baseman Rafael Devers are in agreement on an extension that will keep him in Boston through the 2033 season. Though many outlets reported this as an 11-year extension worth $331MM, Devers and the Sox had already agreed to a $17.5MM salary for 2023. In terms of new money, then, he’s agreed to a ten-year, $313.5MM extension. There are no opt-outs in the deal and he won’t have a no-trade clause. The deal is pending a physical and is not yet official. Devers is represented by Rep 1 Baseball.

Devers, 26, was set to enter his final year of club control. He was slated to reach free agency after the upcoming campaign but will now stay in Boston for an extra decade, with this agreement set to take him through the 2033 campaign and his age-36 season. It’s easily the largest deal in franchise history, which was previously held by the $217MM deal for David Price. It will also be the 10th-largest guarantee in MLB history, while the $31.35MM average annual value will get him into the top 20 all-time.

Devers will now stick with the only organization he’s ever known and could well spend his entire career in Boston. The Sox signed him out of the Dominican Republic as a 16-year-old in August of 2013, giving him a $1.5MM bonus. He worked his way through the minors and was seen by many as one of the top prospects in the sport. Baseball America ranked him in the top 20 on their top 100 list in both 2016 and 2017. In that latter season, Devers cracked the majors and debuted while just 20 years old. Despite that young age, he hit 10 home runs in just 58 games and produced a batting line of .284/.338/.482. That led to a wRC+ of 110, indicating he was 10% better than the league average hitter.

Devers endured a bit of a sophomore slump in 2018 but has put that behind him in a big way. Over the last four years, he’s hit 108 home runs and produced an overall batting line of .292/.352/.532. That production has been 32% better than league average by measure of wRC+, placing him among the top 25 hitters in the league for that time period.

For the Red Sox, it’s been a bit of a rollercoaster time for the franchise over the past few years. They hoisted the World Series trophy in 2018 but then saw star right fielder Mookie Betts traded to the Dodgers alongside Price. Though the Sox got some interesting players in return, it was widely-viewed as a financially-motivated decision, a bitter pill for fans to swallow after a strong run of success that saw them win four titles from 2004 to 2018. The club slid to last place in the American League East in the shortened 2020 campaign.

Though 2021 saw the club surprise many onlookers by returning to the postseason, they had another disappointing campaign in 2022, finishing last in the division for the second time in three years. This offseason, another star player departed when shortstop Xander Bogaerts opted out of his contract. Though the Sox maintained that retaining Bogaerts was a top priority, he instead signed with the Padres for $280MM over 11 years while Boston came up well short, reportedly in the $160MM range.

With Betts and Bogaerts both leaving for California, the focus turned to Devers. With just one year until free agency, many wondered if the Fenway Faithful would have to endure a third superstar departure in a four-year span, or perhaps a three-year span if the club considered a trade. The reporting on the matter seemed dire as recently as a couple of months ago, indicating that the sides were not close in their extension talks with Boston offering something in the vicinity of $212MM. Instead, they have stepped up in a big way to ensure that Devers is the face of the franchise for years to come. In the long run, it’s possible that Devers may have to move from third base to first base, since his defense isn’t as highly regarded as his bat. But those will be conversations for later days, with another 11 years for the club to figure out how to set the lineup.

In the short term, this won’t change the makeup of the Red Sox on the field, since Devers was already going to be a part of the 2023 club. But it could have an impact on the financial ledger. Devers was previously set to have a $17.5MM count towards Boston’s luxury tax but that number will now jump to $30.09MM. The specific breakdown of the Devers deal isn’t known, but the competitive balance tax is calculated based on the average annual value of the deal, so the breakdown won’t change the CBT calculations. With that new figure in place, the club’s total CBT tally is now $224MM, according to the calculations at Roster Resource. That puts them within striking distance of the lowest luxury tax threshold, which will be $233MM this year. Any further additions, whether this offseason or as the season itself progresses, could potentially push them over the line. Since they paid the tax in 2022, they would be considered a second-time payor in 2023.

Former player Carlos Baerga first reported that the sides were in agreement on Instagram, but had the terms as 11 years and $332MM. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported the $331MM figure and added the $20MM signing bonus. Jeff Passan of ESPN clarified that the deal included 2023 and would only add ten years beyond that. Jon Heyman of The New York Post first added the absence of a no-trade clause and Alex Speier of the Boston Globe first had the lack of opt-outs.

Rafael Devers Extension Goes Into Effect In 2024 For Luxury Tax Purposes

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The Red Sox agreed to a massive contract extension with Rafael Devers last week, committing to their star third baseman into the 2030’s. The deal tacked on $313.5MM in new money to buy out ten would-be free agent seasons and keep Devers in Boston for the bulk of his career.

That $313.5MM was tacked onto a $17.5MM salary to which the parties had agreed the day before to avoid an arbitration hearing for his final season of eligibility. Chris Cotillo of MassLive reports (Twitter link) the deal was structured to go into effect for the 2024 campaign, a notable development for luxury tax purposes. The average annual value of a contract counts against a team’s luxury tax ledger. Devers’ deal will come with a $17.5MM tax hit for the 2023 season — reflecting the previous one-year agreement — before recalculating for the 2024-33 campaigns bought out by the extension.

Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports some additional specifics on the extension. Devers receives a $20MM signing bonus, followed by his established $17.5MM salary in 2023. He receives salaries of $27.5MM annually from 2024-26, $31MM per year from 2027-30 and $29MM salaries between 2031-33.

According to Speier, some of that money will be deferred. Doing so will bring the deal’s luxury tax hit for the 2024-33 campaigns to a bit above $29MM. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports (Twitter link) that $7.5MM in salary will be deferred each season, and the deal’s net present value is actually at $291.53MM after accounting for those deferrals. According to Heyman, the deal also contains a one-time assignment bonus worth $2.5MM in the event Devers is traded. A ten-year, $313.5MM contract without any deferrals would’ve had a luxury tax number of $31.35MM.

That’s a small benefit to the Boston organization over the long haul. The more immediate relief for the club comes in structuring the agreement so Devers’ 2023 CBT number remains at $17.5MM. That’ll keep Boston’s overall tax number around $211MM after factoring in projected salaries for arbitration-eligible players. They’re roughly $22MM south of the $233MM base tax threshold, leaving them a fair bit of spending room before hitting that mark.

The Red Sox have set a press conference for tomorrow at 11:00 am EST to announce the deal. Devers, chairman Tom Werner, team president Sam Kennedy, chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and skipper Alex Cora will all attend.

Trevor Story Underwent Internal Brace Surgery On Right Elbow

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3:10pm: Bloom didn’t provide a specific timeline on Story for the upcoming season, noting that a return is possible “but it’s not something at this stage we want to bank on,” per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. Bloom also said Story was preparing to play shortstop before aggravating his elbow, per Speier.

2:50: Red Sox infielder Trevor Story had internal brace surgery on his right elbow yesterday, per a release from the team. “Boston Red Sox infielder Trevor Story yesterday underwent a successful internal bracing procedure of the right ulnar collateral ligament (elbow),” the statement reads. “Dr. Keith Meister performed the surgery at Texas Metroplex Institute in Arlington, Texas.” Chris Cotillo of MassLive. reported the surgery shortly before the official announcement and adds that chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom will speak at 4pm Eastern/3pm Central.

The club has not provided a timeline on Story’s expected recovery, with that information perhaps to come when Bloom speaks. Until that information comes out, we can only speculate on the timeline, but it’s worth pointing out that the UCL is the same ligament that is replaced in Tommy John surgery. The internal brace procedure is generally considered to be less invasive and allow players to return quicker, but the recovery period still usually takes months. For one recent example, outfielder Eli White underwent the procedure while a member of the Rangers last year, with the club announcing at that time that White was expected to miss six months. Each player is unique and will have their own responses to different injuries, but it seems fair to assume that Story is slated for a significant absence of some kind.

For Story, there have been concerns swirling around his throwing arm for some time now. He made 11 throwing errors while with the Rockies in 2021, with some scouts expressing trepidation about this throws after that season. Statcast’s new arm strength leaderboard ranked Story as averaging 79.1 mph on his throws from short, a mark that placed him 52nd out of 58 shortstops to make at least 100 throws that year. That was a noticeable drop from 2020, when Story was at 82.3 mph and ranked 22nd out of 34 shortstops who made 100 throws.

Despite those concerns, the Sox signed Story to a six-year, $140MM deal going into 2022. At the time of the signing, Story was expected to play second base in deference to shortstop Xander Bogaerts, but it was also seen as a possible safety net for a Bogaerts departure. Since Bogaerts had the ability to opt out of his deal after 2022, the Sox would then have the option of sliding Story to the other side of the bag to replace him.

The position change gave Story and the Sox a year to evaluate things, with Story making shorter throws from second. He averaged 76.1 mph on his throws last year, which was another drop from the year before and placed him 61st among 70 second basemen to make 100 throws on the year. On top of that, the Sox indeed saw Bogaerts opt out of his contract and sign with the Padres this winter.

Though Story’s timeline is still to be determined, it seems like the Sox will now have to figure out how to navigate their middle infield without Bogaerts or Story, at least for a few months. If the club decides to stick with internal options, they could go with Enrique Hernández and Christian Arroyo, though Hernandez seemed ticketed to be the everyday center fielder, so they would have to figure out a solution there. Jarren Duran would be an option to take over in center, though he struggled in 2022 by hitting just .221/.283/.363. There are some other infielders on the roster such as David Hamilton and Enmanuel Valdez, though they’ve only recently been added and have no major league experience.

It’s also possible the club could look for external upgrades. The top free agent options are all off the board, assuming today’s Carlos Correa deal with the Twins is the one that finally gets across the finish line. Elvis Andrus, Josh Harrison and Andrelton Simmons are some of the middle infield options still on the board, if the Sox decide to go that route. On the trade market, there are some players who could be available, such as Isiah Kiner-Falefa of the Yankees, though an inter-division trade might be tricky. Amed Rosario of the Guardians has been mentioned as a speculative candidate, as has Nick Madrigal of the Cubs. The Sox and Marlins have reportedly discussed Joey Wendle and Miguel Rojas in trade talks, so perhaps those discussions could be revisited in light of today’s news.

However the Sox approach it, it seems fair to say that they have been dealt a blow for 2023. Despite being hurt in 2022, Story still hit 16 home runs in 94 games and slashed .238/.303/.434. One silver lining of the surgery is that there’s at least an explanation for his diminished arm strength. If the surgery is successful in repairing his ligament and he’s able to get back into form, perhaps he can take over the shortstop position later in the year. Story’s contract runs through 2027 but he has the ability to opt out after 2025, with the Sox then able to negate the opt-out by tacking on another year and keeping him through 2028.

Details On Justin Turner’s Red Sox Contract

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The Red Sox finalized their contract with veteran infielder Justin Turner this afternoon. Initial reports on the deal, which was agreed upon in December, were a bit variable.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post specified the details this afternoon (on Twitter). It’s officially a two-year, $21.7MM guarantee that comes with an average annual value of $10.85MM. The deal also contains up to $1MM in incentives that’d max out if he reaches 560 plate appearances. As previously reported, Turner will have the opportunity to opt out after the 2023 campaign.

The Vayner Sports client will make an $8.3MM salary this year. At season’s end, he’ll have to decide on either a $13.4MM player option or a $6.7MM buyout to head back to free agency. That lofty buyout means Turner would collect $15MM for one season if he opts out, and he’d only have to top $6.7MM on the open market to come out ahead financially. Matching or topping the .278/.350/.438 line he posted through 532 plate appearances during his final season with the Dodgers should allow him to fairly easily beat that figure.

The two-time All-Star spent nine seasons in Southern California after his first few years as a role player with the Orioles and Mets. He took to Twitter this evening to thank the Dodgers organization and its fans after officially putting pen to paper with Boston.

With Rafael Devers and Triston Casas set to man the corner infield, Turner seems likely to spend a decent amount of time at designated hitter in 2023. He’ll be replacing J.D. Martinez, who coincidentally landed in Los Angeles on a one-year free agent deal.

Bill Campbell Passes Away

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Longtime major league reliever Bill Campbell passed away today after a battle with cancer, according to multiple reports. He was 74 years old.

A native of Highland Park, Michigan, Campbell began his professional baseball career with the Twins after a military stint in Vietnam. The war delayed his entry into pro ball until he was 22 years old, but the 6’3″ righty reached the majors within two seasons. A starting pitcher in the minors, Campbell broke into the big leagues as a reliever with Minnesota during the 1973 season. He threw 51 2/3 innings through 28 appearances as a rookie, posting a 3.14 ERA.

That kicked off a stretch in which Campbell was one of the sport’s better late-game weapons. Part of an era in which there were a number of multi-inning “fireman” relievers, Campbell served as a bullpen workhorse. He topped 120 frames in each season from 1974-76, allowing fewer than four earned runs per nine innings in all three years. During the ’76 campaign, Campbell led all big leaguers with 68 games finished and put up a 3.01 ERA over 167 2/3 innings out of the bullpen.

For his efforts, Campbell earned a seventh-place finish in AL Cy Young balloting and an eighth-place tally in MVP voting. That marked an excellent platform showing before he qualified for free agency. He signed with the Red Sox that offseason and had another great year during his first season in Boston. Campbell put up a 2.96 ERA across 140 innings, pacing the American League with 31 saves. He earned an All-Star nod and finished fifth in Cy Young voting and 10th in MVP balloting.

That was Campbell’s last elite season, as he was limited to fewer than 55 innings in each of the next four years with Boston. Campbell signed with the Cubs upon qualifying for free agency during the 1981-82 offseason. He’d top 100 frames again in his two seasons in Chicago, posting a 3.69 ERA during his first year. The Cubs traded him to the Phillies, where he pitched to a 3.43 ERA through 81 1/3 innings in 1984. He’d change teams each year for the rest of his career, following up with successive one-year stops as a Cardinal, Tiger and Expo. The ’85 campaign afforded Campbell his only opportunity to pitch in the postseason, as he tossed 6 1/3 innings of one-run ball for the National League champions.

Campbell appeared in all 15 major league seasons from 1973-87. He played for seven different clubs, particularly thriving during his early work with the Twins and Red Sox. Campbell was named the American League’s reliever of the year in both seasons in which he secured Cy Young and MVP votes. At career’s end, he owned a 3.54 ERA in 1229 1/3 innings over exactly 700 big league appearances. Campbell struck out 864 hitters, won 83 games and finished off 455 outings with 126 saves.

After his playing career concluded, Campbell had coaching stints in the Brewers and Red Sox organizations. MLBTR sends our condolences to Campbell’s family, friends, loved ones and former teammates.

Red Sox Designate Darwinzon Hernandez For Assignment

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The Red Sox have designated left-hander Darwinzon Hernandez for assignment, per a team announcement. He’ll be the corresponding 40-man roster move to accommodate the newly signed Justin Turner, whose previously reported contract is now official.

Hernandez, 26, both misses bats and piles up walks in droves. He’s fanned 32.3% of his opponents over the life of 85 1/3 big league innings but has also walked a whopping 17.7% of the batters he’s faced. Despite that dearth of command, he was able to notch a tidy 3.17 ERA in 48 1/3 innings from 2020-21, but Hernandez was rocked for 17 runs (16 earned) in just 6 2/3 innings at the big league level this past season. Overall, he owns a 5.06 ERA in the Majors.

Despite his struggles to locate his pitches, Hernandez is a 26-year-old lefty who’s averaged just north of 95 mph on his fastball and avoided hard contact quite nicely when opponents put the ball in play against him (with the exception of 2022’s small sample). Hernandez also has a minor league option remaining, which could further broaden his appeal to other teams.

The Red Sox will have a week to trade Hernandez or attempt to pass him through outright waivers, which would allow them to keep him in the organization without dedicating a 40-man roster spot to the hard-throwing but command-challenged southpaw.

Red Sox Notes: Devers, Casas, Houck, Coaching Staff

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The Red Sox entered the offseason hopeful of re-signing Xander Bogaerts and extending Rafael Devers, locking that pair of dynamic hitters into the heart of the order for the foreseeable future. Instead, Bogaerts signed an 11-year deal with the Padres, and talks with Devers have yet to bear fruit. Devers did agree to a one-year contract with for the upcoming 2023 season yesterday, locking in his salary at $17.5MM, but he was already under club control and the newly agreed-upon pact doesn’t do much to move the needle in long-term talks.

Both Jon Heyman of the New York Post and Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com report today that talks on a long-term deal have been “steady” in the past few weeks, though. As Cotillo points out, that wasn’t true early in the offseason. Still, the parties have been known to be facing a substantial gap. Devers has reportedly been searching for a deal north of $300MM, and given his age (26) and proximity to free agency (next offseason), that’s unlikely to change anytime soon.

If anything, the current offseason’s rash of mega-deals for in-their-prime stars has likely only further hardened Devers’ stance; he doesn’t have the defensive value of players like Trea Turner, Carlos Correa or even Bogaerts, but Devers will be a younger free agent than anyone who agreed to a major contract this winter. Devers will play all of the 2024 season (his first free-agent year) at 27. Turner (30 in June), Bogaerts (already 30) and Correa (who turned 28 in September) are all older, as was Aaron Judge, who inked a nine-year, $360MM contract entering his age-31 season.

Devers, of course, is one of the American League’s best hitters — evidenced by a .292/.352/.532 slash over the past four seasons. He’s twice topped 30 home runs, including a 38-homer campaign in 2021, and was on a roughly 30-homer pace in the shortened 2020 season as well. The primary knock on Devers has been his defensive prowess, or lack thereof, which has prompted some to wonder when a move to first base might become necessary.

The Sox, however, hope to have their first baseman of the future on the cusp of MLB readiness in the form of top prospect Triston Casas. The soon-to-be 23-year-old slugger debuted with a .197/.358/.408 batting line in 95 plate appearances last year, and while the low batting average was obviously discouraging, it came in a small sample. Casas also raked at a .273/.382/.481 clip in Triple-A Worcester over a larger sample of 317 plate appearances.

Casas has come up in trade rumblings recently, thanks to a report from the Miami Herald that the Marlins have inquired about the former first-round pick and Miami-area native in talks involving the Marlins’ stock of young pitchers. However, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe highlights the many reasons that a trade of Casas is decidedly unlikely. As Speier notes, the team’s belief in Casas helped to temper interest in Freddie Freeman during his free agency and also contributed to the Red Sox’ decision to release Eric Hosmer.

Speier writes that the Red Sox are indeed intrigued by adding to the top half of their rotation — as most teams are — but perhaps not at the expense of Casas. The Sox appear willing to move pitchers from their big league roster, per the report, “potentially” even including right-hander Tanner Houck. To be clear, there’s no indication that Houck has been discussed extensively (or at all) with the Marlins or another club, nor is there any suggestion that the Red Sox are outright shopping the 24-year-old righty.

Still, Houck would be an interesting name for other clubs to look into, given that he’s controllable for another five seasons and has pitched to a sharp 3.02 ERA (2.95 FIP) in his first 146 MLB innings. The Sox surely value Houck and would likely only part with him in exchange for a meaningful (and controllable) upgrade elsewhere on the pitching staff or in the lineup. Dealing Houck while simultaneously looking to bring in rotation help is perhaps counterintuitive, but despite rising through the system as a starter, Houck has worked out of the bullpen more than the rotation in the Majors — including making 28 of his 32 appearances in 2022 as a reliever.

If the Sox view Houck primarily as a reliever — GM Brian O’Halloran was somewhat noncommittal on Houck’s 2023 role back in November — there’s some sense in being willing to at least listen to offers. Boston has, after all, added to its bullpen with offseason additions of Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin and Joely Rodriguez but has been less active with regard to the rotation, where Corey Kluber is the lone addition to date. Again, none of this is to say Houck is readily available, but the mere possibility of the team entertaining offers is at least of some note.

Turning to a separate matter entirely, the Sox formally announced their coaching staff for the upcoming season earlier this morning. There are no surprises among the names included. Returning to manager Alex Cora’s staff will be pitching coach Dave Bush, hitting coach Peter Fatse, bullpen coach Kevin Walker, assistant hitting coaches Ben Rosenthal and Luis Ortiz, third base/infield coach Carlos Febles, game-planning/catching coach Jason Varitek, and field coordinator Andy Fox. As reported earlier in the offseason, Ramon Vazquez is the team’s new bench coach, while Kyle Hudson has been hired away from the Guardians as the new first base/outfield coach.

Red Sox, Rafael Devers Avoid Arbitration

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12:30pm: The Red Sox formally announced that Devers has signed a one-year deal for the 2023 season.

11:37am: The Red Sox have agreed to a one-year, $17.5MM contract with third baseman Rafael Devers, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan (via Twitter). That’ll avoid an arbitration hearing for Devers’ final season of eligibility but does not extend the team’s control over the All-Star slugger. He’ll be a free agent next offseason. Devers had been projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $16.9MM this coming season but will top that mark by $600K. Devers is a client of Rep 1 Baseball.

Devers, 26, has cemented himself as one of the American League’s top hitters over the past several years, hitting at a combined .292/.352/.532 clip with 108 plate appearances in 2228 homers dating back to 2019. Along the way, he’s been named to a pair of All-Star teams and won a Silver Slugger Award.

A long-term extension with Devers has been a priority for Boston’s front office for some time, but a sizable gap between the two parties has remained — and that was before Devers watched several mid-20s free agents ink contracts of 11 or more years in length this offseason. One would imagine that the revitalized trend of contracts reaching or even exceeding ten years in length has only further prompted Devers to ponder what he might be able to earn in an open-market setting.

That said, there’s still ample time for the Red Sox to close the gap in negotiations. The fact that the two parties were able to amicably agree on a one-year compromise without needing to resort to a more contentious arbitration hearing bodes well for the status of talks, to an extent. It also frees the two parties to focus negotiations solely on Devers’ would-be free agent seasons.

Long-term deals of that nature are often left to be discussed in Spring Training, but given Devers’ importance to the Red Sox and the dwindling clock, it’s certainly behoove the front office to take every moment available in order to try to work something out. Boston ostensibly waited until last spring to discuss a long-term pact with Xander Bogaerts but only made an unrealistic one-year extension offer. They broadcast confidence in their ability to ultimately retain Bogaerts up until the final day that he agreed to terms with the Padres on an 11-year, $280MM contract. Certainly, one would imagine Sox brass hopes to avoid a similar sequence with Devers, who’s four years younger than Bogaerts and thus would be positioned all the more favorably in free agency.

However extension talks play out, there’s benefit to the Red Sox in securing this cost certainty on Devers sooner than later. With Devers’ salary locked in, the Sox are now projected for an Opening Day payroll just shy of $187MM, per Roster Resource. Their projected $212.6MM luxury-tax ledger sits more than $20MM shy of the $233MM first tier of penalization. Boston quite arguably still has needs behind the plate, in the rotation and on the bench, and knowing the exact price point on Devers helps chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and his staff gain a better picture of just how many resources are available before any concerns pertaining to the luxury tax — if they exist at all — need to be considered. Boston would be a second-time luxury offender upon exceeding the tax threshold in 2023.

Marlins Have Pursued Triston Casas In Trade Talks With Red Sox

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The Red Sox and Marlins have been discussing trade scenarios, with recent reporting indicating the Sox have have some interest in veteran infielders Joey Wendle and Miguel Rojas. It seems that they have also discussed a much more significant trade as well, with the Fish attempting to acquire young first baseman Triston Casas, per a report from Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald.

Since Wendle and Rojas are both in their 30s and impending free agents, their trade value would be fairly modest. Casas, however, is turning 23 years old later this month, still has six remaining years of control and is generally considered one of the top 50 prospects in the game. If he were to be involved in any trade, it would surely go beyond a deal for Rojas or Wendle. The report from the Herald indicates Miami tried to pry Casas loose from Boston in discussions involving their starting pitchers.

There’s nothing to suggest that Boston is open to dealing Casas or ever gave serious consideration to the overtures coming from Miami. Still, it’s noteworthy that such a monumental deal has even been discussed. The Marlins have reportedly been trying to use their rotation surplus for a lineup boost for quite some time, but haven’t yet landed a deal to their liking. While ace Sandy Alcantara and top prospect Eury Pérez are reportedly off limits, the Fish seem to be willing to part with one of Pablo López, Jesús Luzardo, Trevor Rogers or Edward Cabrera in a trade that would give them an impact bat and targeted Casas to be that guy.

The 26th overall pick in the 2018 draft, Casas mashed his way up the minor league ladder and reached the majors last year at the age of 22. He struck out in 24.2 percent of his trips to the plate, which was a bit above league average, but he also walked 20 percent of the time and launched five home runs in just 27 games. His lopsided .197/.358/.408 slash line resulted in a 120 wRC+, indicating he was 20 percent better than league average. That’s a very small sample size, but he’s also hit extremely well in the minors. In 72 Triple-A games last year, he hit .273/.382/.481 for a wRC+ of 127.

Though it makes sense that the Marlins would be interested in an exciting young player like that, it also makes sense that the Sox would want to hold onto him. Boston acquired Eric Hosmer from the Padres at last year’s deadline but then were seemingly impressed enough by the debut of Casas that they released Hosmer in December. To suddenly pivot and include Casas in a trade would be quite shocking.

The Marlins are also potentially interested in Ceddanne Rafaela, another highly-touted Boston prospect but one further away from the majors. The 22-year-old infielder/outfielder reached Double-A in 2022 and should be ready for exposure to Triple-A this year. He’s generally not ranked as highly as Casas but still has some hype, with Baseball America currently considering him the #78 prospect in all of baseball and MLB Pipeline placing him in the #96 slot. However, Jackson and Mish report that the Marlins are prioritizing improving the 2023 team, making Rafaela less interesting to them than the MLB-ready Casas.

The general framework of a trade isn’t totally inconceivable, in the sense that the Sox could surely use the starting pitching that the Marlins have to offer. Chris Sale and James Paxton have hardly pitched in the past three years while recent signee Corey Kluber is about to turn 37 and has injury question marks of his own. Garrett Whitlock has worked well in relief but seems to be headed for a move to the rotation despite just nine career MLB starts to this point in his career. Nick Pivetta is arguably the most reliable member of the bunch but he’s never posted an ERA below 4.53. Adding some more insurance into that group would make sense but it seems the acquisition costs being discussed with Miami are steep.

Though the Marlins have enough starting pitching to interest the Red Sox and many other teams around the league, these talks perhaps give us some insight as to why a deal still hasn’t come to fruition, given their high asking price. With those talks yet to bear fruit, the club has been limited to free agency in their pursuit of upgrading an offense that produced an 88 wRC+ in 2022, good enough for 25th place in the league.

The club had known interest in José Abreu, with Jackson and Mish reporting they offered a two-year deal in the $40MM range. Instead, Abreu joined the Astros on a three-year deal with a similar salary, amounting to a $58.5MM guarantee. The Marlins then pivoted to Justin Turner and offered him a one-year deal worth $15MM. He instead joined the Red Sox on a deal that pays him $15MM in 2023 but also has a player option for 2024 that would push his guarantee to $21.7MM over two years. The Fish also reportedly offered Brandon Drury $19MM over two years but he ended up taking a slightly smaller $17MM deal with the Angels. It had been recently reported by Sam Blum and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic that Drury grew up an Angels fan and also had a pre-existing relationship with Angels’ manager Phil Nevin from when Nevin was managing the Diamondbacks’ Triple-A team that Drury was on in 2015 and 2016. After missing out on Abreu, Turner and Drury, the Marlins then got a deal done with Jean Segura.

While Segura is a solid addition, it seems the Marlins are still trying to complete a significant trade that will make an even larger impact on their lineup. It doesn’t seem likely that Casas will be the one, but it gives some sense of the type of impact player they have their eyes on. With about six weeks remaining until Spring Training, it will be very interesting to see what other players they pursue and if they can line up on a deal.

Hirokazu Sawamura Looking For MLB Opportunities Over Return To Japan

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Former Boston reliever Hirokazu Sawamura is looking for another opportunity in the US over a return to Japan, according to Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe.

Sawamura pitched for a decade in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball before going stateside, signing for the Red Sox on a two-year, $3MM deal. He’d compiled a 2.77 ERA across 868 1/3 NPB innings. Sawamura initially worked as a starter for Yomiuri but switched to the bullpen in 2015 and became the team’s closer. A shoulder injury saw him miss the 2017 season, but he’d return as a quality setup man before his eventual move to the US in 2021.

When the Red Sox landed Sawamura, 32 at the time, it was seen as an affordable pact with a fair bit of upside if he could excel in the transition to MLB. While he never blossomed into a dominant relief arm, he did give the Sox some valuable middle relief innings. In 2021, Sawamura tossed 53 innings of 3.06 ERA ball, striking out batters at a strong 26.2% clip and walking them at a below-average 13.7% rate.

2022 started well for Sawamura, as he held a 2.48 ERA on July 23. Things went downhill quickly though, and over the next month Sawamura would work to a 5.40 ERA before the Red Sox opted to designate him for assignment in late August. All told, Sawamura owned a 3.39 ERA over 103 2/3 innings for Boston. Given his affordable salary that mark would make the DFA a little surprising, but there were some troubling signs below the surface, and Sawamura had seen his strikeout rate dip and his HardHit% jump towards the end of his time with the Red Sox.

There also may have been some financial motivation to the DFA. There was a club and player option in place for 2023 with the value of those options increasing based on performance. Sawamura had a player option of $1.9MM at the time of the DFA, while the club option sat at $3.7MM. The player option would have increased to $2MM with his 50th appearance, but the Sox DFA’d him after his 49th appearance. Boston would outright Sawamura to Triple-A, but he’d ask for a release from the team ten days later to pursue other opportunities. The Red Sox granted that release, and Sawamura received a $1MM buyout on the 2023 option.

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