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Which 2022 Draft Picks Have Teams Gained And Lost From Qualifying Offer Free Agents

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Of the 14 free agents to receive qualifying offers this winter, nine have already figured out where they will be playing next season, leading to some noteworthy adjustments to the 2022 draft order.  For a refresher on the QO rules, you can check this list of what signing a qualifying offer-rejecting free agent would cost each team, or this list of what teams receive as compensation for losing a QO-rejecting free agent.

Or, for simplicity’s sake, you could just read this post right here as a quick summary of the extra picks gained and lost due to these signings.  First of all, four of the nine signed players don’t factor into the discussion, since they are back with their former teams — Brandon Belt accepted the Giants’ qualifying offer in the first place, while Raisel Iglesias re-signed with the Angels, Chris Taylor re-signed with the Dodgers, and Justin Verlander re-signed with the Astros.

For the five other signed QO free agents and the five unsigned QO free agents, here is the breakdown of what their former teams would receive as compensatory picks.  The specific order of the compensatory picks is based on the previous year’s record, so the team with the fewer wins would get the superior pick.

  • Extra pick after Round 1 of the draft: This is awarded to a team that receives revenue-sharing funds, and whose QO-rejecting free agent signs with another team for more than $50MM in guaranteed salary.  The Rockies and Reds would therefore each qualify if Trevor Story (Colorado) or Nick Castellanos (Cincinnati) signed for $50MM+.  Since the Reds had the better record between the two teams, the Rockies would pick 32nd overall and the Reds 33rd overall if both clubs indeed ended up in this same category.  If Story and/or Castellanos signed for less than $50MM, Colorado and/or Cincinnati would be in the next group…
  • Extra pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3: Four picks have already been allotted within this group, comprised of teams who don’t receive revenue sharing funds.  The Mets received an extra selection when Noah Syndergaard signed with the Angels, the Blue Jays received two picks when Marcus Semien signed with the Rangers and Robbie Ray signed with the Mariners, and the Red Sox got a pick when Eduardo Rodriguez signed with the Tigers.  Like Toronto, the Mets could also receive a second pick if Michael Conforto signed elsewhere.  The Braves (Freddie Freeman) and Astros (Carlos Correa) would also land in this category if their respective QO free agents left town.  The draft order of this sandwich round based on 2021 record would line up as Mets (77 wins), Braves (88 wins), Blue Jays (91 wins), Red Sox (92 wins), and Astros (95 wins).  For the moment, the four picks in this group represent the 75th-79th overall selections in the draft, though that specific order will be altered based on where the other QO players sign, or what other second-round picks might be surrendered as penalties for signing those free agents.
  • Extra pick after Round 4: For teams that lose a QO free agent but exceeded the luxury tax threshold in 2021, their compensatory pick is pushed back to beyond the fourth round.  Therefore, this is where the Dodgers will make their extra pick in the wake of Corey Seager’s deal with the Rangers.

Moving on, here is what the four teams who have signed QO free agents had to give up in draft capital…

  • Second-highest 2022 draft pick, $500K in international signing pool money: The Angels didn’t receive revenue sharing funds, and didn’t exceed the luxury tax in 2021.  As a result, signing Syndergaard will cost the Angels their second-round draft selection and a chunk of their funds for the next international signing period.
  • Third-highest 2022 draft pick: The Mariners and Tigers fall into this category, as teams who received revenue sharing payments in 2021.  For Seattle, this is simply their third-round selection.  For Detroit, their “third-highest pick” won’t be determined until MLB establishes the order for this year’s Competitive Balance Draft.  Depending on which of the two CBD rounds the Tigers are drawn into, their cost for the Rodriguez contract could either be their second-rounder or their pick in Competitive Balance Round B.
  • Both their second AND third-highest 2022 draft picks, and $500K in international signing pool money: The Rangers splurged by signing both Seager and Semien, and thus faced twice the draft penalty (both their second-round and third-round picks) for landing a pair of QO free agents.  Texas would have faced the same penalty as the Angels if it had signed just one of Seager or Semien.
  • Second- and fifth-highest 2022 draft picks, $1MM in international signing pool money: The stiffest penalty is reserved for teams who exceeded the luxury tax threshold last season.  Therefore, only the Dodgers and Padres would have to give up multiple picks to sign a single QO free agent, which would surely influence any efforts on their part to pursue Correa, Freeman, Conforto, Story, or Castellanos.

Examining Boston’s Catching Corps

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From the outside looking in, it would appear that the Red Sox catching situation is fairly well set. After all, they have $9.25MM committed to their incumbent backstop tandem of Christian Vazquez and Kevin Plawecki, each having been brought back on a guaranteed contract. Boston could have easily gotten out of the commitment to either player through the declination of a team option and non-tender, respectively, but their decision to bring the duo back suggests comfort with continuity.

There may be another move yet to make, however, writes Chris Cotillo of Masslive.com. To his point, Boston isn’t committed to either Vazquez or Plawecki beyond 2021. Connor Wong and Ronaldo Hernandez could play themselves into the big league picture, but while both are prospects, neither are blue-chippers. To prove the point, Cotillo reiterated that Boston had made a bid for Jacob Stallings before the Pirates dealt their backstop the Marlins.

Any ground-shifting move would have to come via the trade market, as the free agent crop of catchers has already been picked clean of prospective starters, as MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk explored not long ago. Yan Gomes, Manny Pina, Pedro Severino, and Roberto Perez signed with the Cubs, Braves, Brewers, and Pirates, respectively. Even backups Sandy Leon (Guardians) and Andrew Knapp (Reds) found new homes. That leaves veterans Robinson Chirinos, Kurt Suzuki, and Wilson Ramos as the most decorated options remaining, and those three haven’t been above-average starters behind the plate since 2019.

On the trade market, there are a number of teams with flexible catching rooms that might be willing to shake things up in the right deal. The Cubs’ Willson Contreras sounded none too happy about the Gomes signing, and he’s on the final year of his deal. The Yankees would move Gary Sanchez, but they, like the Red Sox, would need to upgrade if they were going to move him. Anyone with a long-term need at catcher should be in contact with the Blue Jays, though Toronto isn’t likely all that eager to send one of their young backstops (Alejandro Kirk, Gabriel Moreno) to a division rival. Reese McGuire might be a realistic target, if not for Boston, then maybe somewhere else where he could shake loose another starting-level masked man.

Looking elsewhere, Carson Kelly of the Diamondbacks brings the right blend of current ability and future team control, and with the Diamondbacks facing an uphill climb in the NL West, the right deal ought to be able to pry him loose. Still, the return there might smart more than Boston is willing to endure, given the high floor of their current group. The goal for Boston would be to raise the ceiling of their production from the catching spot, and while Kelly certainly qualifies in that regard, the value of the add could send Boston to track a different scent.

Another option could be MJ Melendez of the Royals. Salvador Perez is the past, present, and future of catching in Kansas City, and the Royals might figure to use Melendez’s trade value rather than let him grow into a part-time role.

Sean Murphy is the big fish on the trade market, and the A’s powerful catcher would indeed raise the ceiling in Boston while providing long-term stability. The Gold Glove catcher is under team control through 2025. Murphy, like everyone on Oakland’s roster, is available, but the question will come down to price point and valuation of the prospects in Boston’s system.

There are other options that the Red Sox could explore (Cotillo suggests the Padres as a trade partner, for example), but at the end of the day, it seems most likely they will enter 2022 as they ended 2021, with Vazquez and Plawecki sharing catching duties while Hernandez and Wong await their turn. Combined, Vazquez and Plawecki posted 1.2 rWAR/1.0 fWAR in 2021, and with both catchers entering their age-31 season, there’s not much upside to mine (though catchers do tend to develop late). Still, if Boston likes the way they handle the pitching staff, that might be enough to keep this group in place for next season. Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom and GM Brian O’Halloran are going to continue to explore ways to raise the roof on the potential of their catching production, but an incremental rise in potential output probably doesn’t blow their hats off enough to push them from the incumbent duo.

Red Sox, Astros Interested In Trevor Story

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The Boston Red Sox and Houston Astros have expressed interest in free agent shortstop Trevor Story, reports MLB Network’s Jon Heyman in his latest insider piece for Audacy’s “Big Time Baseball” podcast. Heyman reiterates that he’s also heard Seattle convey interest in the shortstop, as MLBTR covered prior to the lockout last week. As is the case with all player-team connections made in the lockout age, no talks can take place between either party until the lockout is lifted.

Interestingly, Boston was recently cited as a team who reached out to free agent shortstop Carlos Correa’s camp. The path to that connection being anything more than due diligence lies in moving All-Star Xander Bogaerts off the position, an option neither the player nor Boston front office have indicated is on the table. The takeaway from a potential Correa pursuit is in many ways identical to a hypothetical Story one— sign an All-Star shortstop to guard against a Bogaerts departure, improving infield defense in the interim.

Just like Boagaerts, Story has yet to give a firm indication that he’ll be anything but a shortstop heading into the 2022 season. As we saw with Boston’s recent reacquisition of Jackie Bradley Jr. however, the Red Sox clearly aren’t afraid of shuffling players around if it means upgrading their defense. Even on the heels of a modest-for-him campaign, metrics across the board agree that Story would be an improvement with the glove over the incumbent Bogaerts. Of course, with Seattle allegedly showing interest in Story as a third baseman it’s possible Boston can do the same, choosing instead to move Rafael Devers (a subpar defender in his own right) off his position for a presumed upgrade in Story.

The Houston connection, for what it’s worth, would require the least moving parts to bring Story aboard. With Correa out of the picture for now, the Astros have a clear opening at shortstop that Story could fill. As is the case with the Red Sox, a Story signing may push the team past the first luxury tax threshold if he signs somewhere in the vicinity of MLBTR’s predicted six-year, $126MM guarantee. This may be a bridge too far then for Houston, though they’ll likely have plenty of financial wiggle room as soon as 2023 (to say nothing of a CBA that may change entirely).

Financial complications aside, the Astros pursuit of Story may hinge on how ready they are to give top-ranked prospect Jeremy Peña a look. Peña dominated in a 30-game showing at Triple-A this year, swatting 10 home runs to go with a .287/.346/.598 slash line. The home run power is new, and certainly encouraging for Houston brass to consider, but still may not be enough to hand the starting shortstop job to a 24-year-old.

The Astros remain the top dogs in the AL West but should expect the overall competitiveness of their division to increase next year. The drop-off from a 7.2 bWAR Carlos Correa to whatever it is a rookie can produce may be less palatable than simply turning to a steady producer like Story. With Story locked in alongside Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve through 2024, the team would then have the benefit of shopping Peña around for talent beyond the infield, or can simply hold onto him as a very enviable depth piece.

Yankees, Blue Jays, Red Sox Reportedly Most Aggressive Suitors For Seiya Suzuki

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On November 22, Seiya Suzuki was posted by the Hiroshima Carp of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, freeing him up to negotiate with all 30 MLB teams for 30 days. However, it was reported that the recent implementation of a lockout that has led to a transaction freeze has also frozen Suzuki’s 30-day clock. That means that, at the conclusion of the lockout, he will still have around 20 days to work out a deal with an MLB team. At that point, there’s a decent chance of Suzuki winding up in the AL East, according to a report from Sean McAdam of Boston Sports Journal. “One major league source reports the Yankees, Blue Jays and Red Sox have been the most aggressive in pursuit of Suzuki,” McAdam writes.

The fact that Suzuki is garnering interest is not surprising, given his talents. Suzuki came in 20th on MLBTR’s list of Top 50 Free Agents and was predicted to get a contract of $55MM over five years. The 27-year-old seems capable of stepping right into the middle of an MLB lineup, while also providing solid right field defence. Over nine seasons in the NPB, he has hit .315/.414/.570, with that production only growing over time.

The Red Sox make for a fairly logical landing spot, especially when considering the recent trade of Hunter Renfroe. Suzuki could potentially fill the right field vacancy left by Renfroe, with Verdugo manning left field and center field covered by some combination of Jarren Duran, Enrique Hernandez or Jackie Bradley Jr., who was part of the return in the Renfroe deal. That trade seemed to be about adding defence by subtracting offence, but the addition of Suzuki could be a way of replacing that lost offence. Kyle Schwarber, who was acquired by the Red Sox last year and would be a logical Renfroe replacement for 2022, is reportedly looking for a three-year, $60MM deal, meaning Suzuki could potentially be about half as costly on an annual basis, if MLBTR’s prediction is correct.

The fit with the Yankees is a bit less smooth, given that they have a number of outfield options already on hand. On paper, the outfield consists of Joey Gallo in left, Aaron Hicks in center and Aaron Judge in right, with designated hitter Giancarlo Stanton available for the occasional appearance on the grass and prospect Estevan Florial on hand as depth. However, they may be reluctant to rely on Hicks as an everyday option, given that he’s now 32 years old and has dealt with injury setbacks in recent years, including only playing 32 games in 2021. Although he did play 54 of the team’s 60 games in the shortened 2020 season, his last significant action over a full season was 137 games in 2018. Judge, Gallo and Suzuki all have seen limited action in center field, making it at least possible for the club to have all three across the outfield at times. However, none of them are really considered an everyday option at the position, making it something of an awkward arrangement over a full season.

Similar to the Yankees, the Blue Jays also seem to have their outfield accounted for on paper, with George Springer, Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Randal Grichuk all pencilled in. However, it was recently reported that the Jays had discussions with the Brewers about a trade centered around Grichuk and Bradley Jr., before the latter was traded to the Red Sox last week. It would appear the club is open to moving on from Grichuk and coming up with a different outfield arrangement. The Blue Jays had a potent offence in 2021 but have since lost Marcus Semien to the Rangers, perhaps motivating them to look to Suzuki as a way to replace Semien’s bat. That would still leave them with a weakened infield, however, as the departure of Semien leaves the club with Cavan Biggio and Santiago Espinal pencilled into second and third base.

The Status Of The Corner Outfield Market

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Free agent outfielder Kyle Schwarber is said to be asking for a three-year, $60MM contract, per Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald. The Marlins were exploring contracts with both Schwarber and Nick Castellanos before the lockout, ultimately coming to a four-year, $53MM agreement with Avisail Garcia instead. Miami also offered Starling Marte a four-year, $60MM offer before he signed with the Mets, notes Jackson.

The market for Schwarber remains robust, however, with many teams throughout the league in need of corner outfield help. The Red Sox – his most recent club – may be a less clean fit for Schwarber after re-acquiring Jackie Bradley Jr. and making the lineup that much more left-leaning, writes Rob Bradford of WEEI.com. The Athletic’s Jen McCaffrey isn’t as sure that Schwarber’s being a left-handed hitter really represents a problem.

Beyond Schwarber and Castellanos, there remain a plethora of free agents capable of stationing in an outfield corner. Kris Bryant is the biggest name of the bunch, though his strongest suitors are likely to at least appreciate his glovework at the hot corner. World Series highlight generators Jorge Soler, Joc Pederson, and Eddie Rosario remain available. Michael Conforto is the other big name still out there, though he has a qualifying offer attached, which may affect his market.

Brett Gardner, Andrew McCutchen, Tommy Pham, Brian Goodwin, Alex Dickerson, and Corey Dickerson are some of the more attractive options out there with recent starting experience. In terms of specialists, Ender Inciarte, Roman Quinn, Kevin Pillar, and Jake Marisnick may fit the bill. There are also a fair number of multi-positional utility men out there, such as Niko Goodrum, Josh Harrison, Marwin Gonzalez, Danny Santana, and Brad Miller.

Red Sox Came Close To Acquiring Jacob Stallings

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The Phillies are another team that has been linked to Schwarber, while the Red Sox and Nationals (the slugger’s two most recent clubs) have also expressed some level of interest in a reunion.  Since several of the top free-agent bats have already landed new deals, Schwarber’s status as one of the top hitters available has only risen, so it’s fair to assume that other teams have already shown interest or will do so once the post-lockout dust settles.  It remains to be seen whether Schwarber’s market will develop to the point where the Marlins or any other club eventually puts a four-year offer on the table.

Pina was another player the Marlins lost to a division rival, as while the Fish offered Pina $4MM on a one-year deal, the Braves doubled that offer and signed Pina for two years and $8MM.  However, the Marlins instead landed a longer-term target in Jacob Stallings, acquiring the backstop from the Pirates for a three-player trade package.  Interestingly, Jackson/Mish write that the Red Sox came very close to trading for Stallings, which would have indicated the Sox were ready to move on from Christian Vazquez either next winter (2022 is Vazquez’s last year under contract) or perhaps this offseason if a trade partner could have been found.

Latest On Carlos Correa’s Market

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With MLB implementing a lockout yesterday, it will likely be some time until fans learn the fate of the sport’s presently unsigned free agents. Per the parameters of the lockout, teams are unable to contact players or make any transactions during this period. Touted by many as the best player on the free agent market, Carlos Correa will have his eventual contract delayed as well, though that doesn’t mean he won’t have his fair share of suitors when the lockout concludes. Prior to yesterday’s announcement, Mark Berman of Fox 26 (KRIV) tweeted a list of teams Correa’s camp has been contacted by at some point this offseason. The Astros and Yankees were teams already known to have reached out, but Berman adds the Red Sox, Dodgers, Cubs, and Braves to the mix as well.

At first glance, some of these newly reported teams may seem like imperfect landing spots for a shortstop who will command a 9-figure salary. Then again, it’s hard to fault any big market team for performing due diligence on a high caliber player like Correa. It’s not presently known when these teams contacted Correa’s agent or how serious these check-ins were, but any team even passingly reported as having communications with Correa’s camp could clue fans into where the star shortstop will end up signing.

Starting alphabetically with one of the more curious fits, Atlanta concluded it’s pennant-winning season with Dansby Swanson entrenched at the shortstop position. While Swanson didn’t quite replicate his production from 2020, he did pop a personal-best 27 home runs and provided defense that was generally regarded as passable or better. The 27-year-old will enter 2022 under his last year of team control, however, perhaps creating a scenario where Correa is signed and Swanson is peddled to a team still in search of a new shortstop. Any movement from Atlanta on the Correa market would likely come after there’s resolution (or, in order to afford Correa, a breakdown) on the Freddie Freeman front.

Boston ended 2021 with a prominent name at shortstop as well, Xander Bogaerts. The 29-year-old Bogaerts continues to rate as one of the league’s more consistent run producers, winnning his fourth Silver Slugger award after a .295/.370/.493 (127 OPS+) showing. Like Swanson in Atlanta, Bogaerts may find himself in his last year of team control if he opts out of the remaining three years on his contract like he is widely expected to do. A Correa pursuit would require some infield shuffling, but would make for an imposing addition to an already strong Red Sox lineup. It would also provide cover for a Bogaerts departure while drastically increasing infield defense.

Chicago has less standing in the way of a Correa run than the previous two teams, as they have the payroll space and an acute need for more offense. Nico Hoerner projects as the current Cubs shortstop following the midseason Javier Baez trade, and to his credit he acquitted himself well to the position. As solid as the former first-rounder was through 44 games though, batting .302/.382/.369 (105 OPS+), he’s only a year removed from a 57 OPS+ showing in a similar amount of games. Hoerner is also defensively adept enough that he could slide to any number of other positions to make room for the more powerful Correa. It remains to be seen if the Cubs are willing to spend additional funds to inch back towards competitiveness or if the Marcus Stroman signing will be their signature offseason acquisition.

Lastly, LA serves as an intriguing landing spot for the All-Star Correa. Like other teams here, the Dodgers have a strong shortstop already in place— Trea Turner. The speedy Turner though can play second base, allowing second basemen Chris Taylor and Gavin Lux to operate in the utility-type roles in which they’ve grown accustomed. One question for the Dodgers front office, however, is if they’d be willing to spend upwards of $300MM on a shortstop when they just let their last superstar shortstop leave for a similarly rich contract. There’s also the 4-year-old elephant in the room, the 2017 World Series in which Correa’s Astros infamously defeated the Dodgers. It’s unlikely any still-lingering weirdness would tank mutual interest (money tends to do the most talking in free agency, after all), but it could serve as a dealbreaker in the event another team were to pursue Correa with the same amount of fervor.

Bloom: Red Sox Still Seeking Bullpen Help; Team Re-Signs Michael Feliz

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Teams are prohibited from contacting players or making any transactions until the lockout is lifted, but every front office still has a plan for areas to target once they’re allowed to again add to the roster. Last night, Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom met with media (including Alex Speier of the Boston Globe) to address the team’s priorities whenever activity resumes.

“We still would like to add more pitching,” Bloom said. “Short relievers, that’s something we have yet to address in meaningful fashion.” Bloom went on to add that the Sox would continue to be involved in the market for position players, pointing to a right-handed bat as a particular bonus in the wake of the trade that sent Hunter Renfroe to Milwaukee for Jackie Bradley Jr. and two prospects.

As Bloom suggested, Boston has yet to upgrade the late-innings mix, at least directly. The Sox’s signings of James Paxton, Michael Wacha and Rich Hill figure to have trickle-down effects on the bullpen. Wacha may be better suited as a multi-inning reliever than as a traditional starter. Even if all three pitchers assume rotation roles (Paxton is expected to miss the first few months of the season recovering from Tommy John surgery), their additions could afford the flexibility for Boston to use Garrett Whitlock and/or Tanner Houck in relief.

Whitlock spent the entire 2021 season as a reliever, eventually emerging as Boston’s top late-innings arm. The former Rule 5 draftee worked 73 1/3 innings of 1.96 ERA ball with plus strikeout, walk and ground-ball numbers. Boston has expressed openness to stretching him back out as a starting pitcher — as he’d been in the minor leagues — but their rotation additions could give them comfort in keeping Whitlock in the late-game role in which he thrived.

Houck, meanwhile, is coming off an excellent season working primarily as a starter. He pitched to a 3.68 ERA with elite strikeout and walk numbers (30% and 6.2%, respectively) across 13 rotation outings. That showing would seemingly earn him another look on the starting staff. That’s still a brief sample, though, and prior scouting reports have questioned whether the righty’s low arm angle and seldom-used third pitch might give him difficulty handling left-handed batters and/or working through a lineup multiple times.

The Red Sox would surely like to keep the rotation possibility open regarding both players, particularly Houck. And both pitchers were already options for a 2021 relief corps that was fine but unspectacular. Red Sox relievers ranked 13th this past season in ERA (3.99) and 14th in both strikeout/walk rate differential (14.8 percentage points) and SIERA (3.94). After a strong start, it became a particularly problematic unit after the All-Star Break. Not coincidentally, that came alongside a second half collapse from former closer Matt Barnes, who struggled so badly after an outstanding first few months that Boston originally left him off their postseason roster.

While the free agent market moved quickly in anticipation of the transaction freeze, there are still various options available. Kenley Jansen, Ryan Tepera, Andrew Chafin and old friends Joe Kelly and Collin McHugh each appeared on either MLBTR’s top 50 free agents or honorable mentions and remain unsigned. Craig Kimbrel is the highest-profile bullpen option available on the trade block, while David Bednar and Cole Sulser stand out among the affordable, under-the-radar options who look like speculative trade candidates.

Boston did make one depth addition in that regard. Speier reported yesterday (on Twitter) that the Sox were in agreement with Michael Feliz on a minor league deal that includes an invitation to big league Spring Training. It’s not clear whether that was made official before the freeze — Feliz’s transactions page at MLB.com hasn’t reflected the move — but it seems likely he’ll be in camp at some point.

Feliz appeared with four different clubs, Boston included, in 2021. He totaled just a 7.20 ERA across 20 cumulative innings, struggling with the home run ball. The 28-year-old has been an inconsistent relief arm over the past few seasons, offsetting big swing-and-miss stuff with elevated walk totals. Adding Feliz as non-roster depth won’t have much of an impact on the front office’s search for more stable bullpen help.

As for the desired right-handed batter, Bloom and his staff have the opportunity to explore multiple avenues. Acquiring Bradley could allow Boston to bump utilityman Enrique Hernández from center field — where he spent the bulk of his time in 2021 — to second base more frequently. In that case, a right-handed hitting outfielder to pair with the lefty-swinging Bradley, Alex Verdugo and Jarren Duran could fit. Alternatively, Hernández could assume that role on the grass while a more natural infielder steps in at the keystone.

Brewers Acquire Hunter Renfroe From Red Sox For Jackie Bradley Jr., Two Prospects

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The Red Sox and Brewers announced agreement on a trade sending corner outfielder Hunter Renfroe to Milwaukee. In return, the Red Sox are reacquiring longtime center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. and two prospects, infielders David Hamilton and Alex Binelas.

It’s an out-of-the-blue swap pulled off just minutes before the work stoppage. Renfroe, 30 next month, is coming off a solid season. Signed by the Red Sox to a $3.1MM guarantee last winter, the former first-round pick emerged as Boston’s primary right fielder. He tallied 572 plate appearances and hit .259/.315/.501 with 31 home runs. By measure of wRC+, Renfroe’s overall offensive output was 14 percentage points above the league average in 2021, tied for the highest mark of his career.

Renfroe rated as a league average defender by measure of Defensive Runs Saved. He tied for the league lead with 16 outfield assists, often showcasing a cannon of an arm that scouts have lauded since his days as a prospect. But both DRS and Statcast’s Outs Above Average pegged his range as a bit below average, with the overall glovework coming out fairly middle-of-the-road.

Even if he’s not likely to win a Gold Glove, Renfroe is a capable right fielder who figures to assume a similar everyday role in Milwaukee. The Brewers lost Avisaíl García to the Marlins in free agency and seemed likely to rely on some combination of Bradley and Tyrone Taylor in right field. Each of Renfroe or Taylor could now spell veteran Lorenzo Cain in center field in the case of rest days or injury for the 35-year-old.

Renfroe steps in to upgrade that mix and add some punch to a Milwaukee lineup that ranked just 17th in slugging percentage this past season despite playing its home games in one of the league’s more hitter-friendly environments. He remains controllable via arbitration through the end of the 2023 season (barring changes to the service time structure in the next collective bargaining agreement). He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $7.6MM salary in 2022.

That’s a bit cheaper than Bradley, who will play next season on a $9.5MM deal after exercising a player option last month. Renfroe’s also coming off a far superior showing, as Bradley had a nightmarish 2021 campaign at the plate. Milwaukee signed Bradley to a two-year guarantee last offseason, but he managed only a .163/.236/.261 mark over his 428 plate appearances with the Brew Crew.

By measure of wRC+, Bradley’s offensive numbers were an astounding 65 points below league average. That ranked last among the 262 hitters with 300+ trips to the plate, with essentially nothing going right for Bradley offensively. His strikeout rate spiked to a career-high 30.8%, while his walk percentage dipped to a personal-low 6.5%. Bradley’s six home runs marked his lowest total in seven years, as did his .095 ISO (slugging minus batting average).

To his credit, Bradley continued to play his typical brand of excellent defense. The former Gold Glove winner rated as twelve runs above average over his 915 1/3 innings on the grass. Statcast, meanwhile, estimated he was worth four Outs Above Average. Yet even a gloveman as excellent as Bradley isn’t providing much overall value with an offensive showing as poor as he had in 2021.

It’s not especially surprising the Milwaukee front office was looking for opportunities to upgrade over Bradley’s spot in the lineup, and they found one via his old team. While the Brewers will add an offensive upgrade, the Red Sox bring Bradley back to Boston in hopes that a return to that environment can unlock some of his prior production. Bradley was a fan favorite and generally strong player over nearly a decade with the Red Sox, first joining the organization as a supplemental first-round pick in 2010.

Bradley became an important member of the Sox’s lineup by 2014, spending most of the next seven seasons as a regular. His highlight-reel defense in center endeared him to the Boston faithful, and the left-handed hitter occasionally flashed potential on offense. His final season with the Red Sox was one of his best, as Bradley hit .283/.364/.450 with seven homers and five steals across 217 plate appearances during the truncated 2020 campaign.

The Boston front office will take a shot on a rebound at the plate while presumably installing Bradley back into the center field mix. Doing so would free up utilityman Enrique Hernández to play second base more frequently, with Alex Verdugo and top prospect Jarren Duran flanking Bradley on the corners. Of course, the Sox could look for future additions to the position player mix, with a right-handed hitting outfielder capable of complementing the lefty-swinging trio of Verdugo, Bradley and Duran standing out as an obvious fit.

Bradley’s contract also contains a $12MM mutual option for 2023 that comes with an $8MM buyout. The Red Sox are assuming a decent chunk of guaranteed money down the line in order to acquire a pair of fairly well-regarded young position players. Each of Hamilton and Binelas was ranked by Baseball America among Milwaukee’s top 20 prospects midseason.

Hamilton, 24, was an eighth-rounder of the University of Texas in 2019. He sat out that season recovering from an Achilles rupture he’d suffered during his junior year with the Longhorns, and last year’s canceled minor league campaign meant he didn’t play in affiliated ball until 2021. The left-handed hitter split his time between High-A and Double-A, hitting .259/.341/.419 with eight homers and 52 stolen bases across 459 plate appearances. Unsurprisingly given that impressive steal tally, the 5’10” middle infielder draws strong marks from scouts for his speed and athleticism, in addition to a sound approach at the plate.

Binelas, 21, was the Brewers’ third-round pick in last summer’s draft. Regarded as a potential first round talent entering his final season at the University of Louisville, he slumped through a down year that dealt a blow to his stock. The left-handed hitter did his best to put that behind him over a brief showing in Low-A after draft day, though, hitting .314/.379/.636 with nine homers in 132 trips to the plate.

A corner infielder, Binelas spent the bulk of his time in college and in the minors at third base. BA suggested midseason it looked unlikely he’d stick at the hot corner and projected his future lying at first or perhaps in left field. Binelas will need to hit to carry that profile, but he’s flashed power, plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills in the past. His strong showing in Low-A — while somewhat to be expected for a player drafted out of one of the top conferences in college baseball — is a strong start in that regard.

Altogether, it’s a fascinating deal — likely the final swap we’ll see for quite some time with a transaction freeze now in place. The Brewers lock in a much-needed lineup upgrade to replace a player they lost on the open market. The Red Sox improve a spotty team defense while bringing back a player who’s had plenty of success in their uniform in years past, taking on a fair bit of long-term money to also add some younger talent to the organization.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Red Sox Sign James Paxton

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The Red Sox continue to bolster their rotation, announcing agreement on a deal with James Paxton. It’s a one-year guarantee that also contains a club option that covers both the 2023-24 seasons. According to reports, Paxton will receive a $6MM salary in 2022. After next season, the club can choose to exercise a pair of options valued at $13MM apiece for the following two campaigns. If the team declines their end of the deal, Paxton would have the right to exercise a $4MM player option for 2023. Altogether, it’s a $10MM guarantee for the Boras Corporation client that could pay him $32MM if the team exercises the options.

Paxton is coming off a pair of lost seasons. Injuries limited him to five starts in 2020, his final campaign with the Yankees. The Mariners brought Paxton back on a buy-low $8.5MM guarantee. Unfortunately, the big southpaw blew out his elbow in the second inning of his first start of 2021. He underwent Tommy John surgery in April, the second such procedure of his career.

It’s not known when Paxton will be ready to return, but he’s almost certain to begin next season on the injured list. Tommy John procedures typically require a twelve to fourteen month recovery. That general area would seem to suggest a mid-summer return for Paxton, although it’s not clear precisely where he stands in recovery.

The Sox are surely hoping Paxton will be able to contribute at some point down the stretch next season, with the power lefty ideally serving as a boost to a potential playoff run. At his best, the Canadian hurler is certainly capable of being an impact member of a club’s rotation. Paxton pitched to a 3.54 ERA over 447 innings between 2017-19, striking out a massive 30.1% of batters faced while walking only 7.3% of opponents. That’s the kind of hurler to whom teams would feel comfortable giving playoff starts, and the Boston front office is rolling the dice on him regaining some of that form.

Were Paxton to pick up where he left off in 2019, he could be a long-term play for the Red Sox. Boston picks up some additional upside in the form of the option, a two-year consideration they’ll have to decide upon next winter. It’s a single provision that, if exercised, would guarantee Paxton’s salaries for both 2023 and 2024.

It’s a risk/reward play for chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and his staff. Boston’s incumbent rotation already looked to be one of the higher-variance units around the league. Chris Sale and Nathan Eovaldi have both looked like top-of-the-rotation arms at their best — Sale’s one of the best pitchers of this generation, of course — but come with questions about their health. Nick Pivetta has huge stuff but a spotty track record at the big league level. Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock both impressed in 2021 but come with starter/relief questions. Paxton’s addition further raises that group’s ceiling, but he’s not the kind of reliable innings-eating type one could argue Boston still needs as a stabilizer.

Chad Dey of Sportsnet first reported Paxton was in agreement with the Red Sox. Jeff Passan of ESPN was first with the $10MM guarantee, as well as the presence of the 2023-24 club option. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reported the option could bring the value of the deal as high as $35MM. Chris Cotillo of MassLive reported the presence of the player option and specific terms.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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