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Latest On Steve Pearce, Steven Wright, Heath Hembree

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Injured Red Sox first baseman Steve Pearce and knuckleballer Steven Wright have barely been factors this season, which now looks likely to go down as a lost year for both players. It’s “doubtful” either will take the field again in 2019, according to Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com.

It’s hard to believe 2019 has been so dreadful for Pearce, one of the main heroes of the Red Sox’s championship run a year ago. The midseason trade acquisition was an offensive force with two teams (Boston and Toronto) during the regular season and continued his torrid pace in the playoffs, earning World Series MVP honors for the Red Sox’s five-game triumph against the Dodgers.

As great as Pearce was in 2018, he only appeared in 76 games then. This season, thanks largely to a lower back strain that has shelved him since May 31, Pearce has played in a mere 29 contests. When he has entered the batters box, the once-potent Pearce has slashed a miserable .180/.245/.258 with one home run and a microscopic .079 ISO in 99 plate appearances. That obviously isn’t what the Red Sox had in mind when they re-signed Pearce to a $6.25MM guarantee last November. Considering his meager production since inking that deal, free agency certainly won’t be as kind to the 36-year-old Pearce during the upcoming offseason.

The Red Sox can still control Wright next year, his last season of arbitration eligibility, but he has joined Pearce in enduring a nightmarish campaign. Wright began the year serving an 80-game suspension after a failed PED test, thus keeping him from debuting until late June, and then went on the IL in mid-July with a right foot contusion. The 34-year-old right-hander – a former All-Star – has thrown 6 1/3 innings this season and allowed six earned runs on 11 hits (including three home runs) and four walks.

In better news for Boston, there’s a “good chance” righty reliever Heath Hembree will pitch again this season, manager Alex Cora told Cotillo. Hembree went down with an elbow strain Aug. 2 – the second time the joint forced him to the IL in 2019. The elbow problems have helped lead to middling results for Hembree, he of the 4.06 ERA/4.91 FIP with 10.75 K/9, 4.3 BB/9 and a paltry 21.8 percent groundball rate in 37 2/3 innings.

AL East Notes: Red Sox, Price, Orioles, Rays

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Left-hander David Price had been a candidate to come off the injured list and start for the Red Sox on Sunday, but that won’t happen, Scott Miller of Bleacher Report was among those to report. Price, out since Aug. 8 with a left wrist problem, is instead another several days from returning. He’ll throw a 55-pitch simulated game Tuesday, after which the Red Sox will decide a next course of action, according to manager Alex Cora. That’s unfortunate news for Boston, which is a potentially insurmountable seven games back of the American League’s last wild-card spot and whose rotation has been an issue throughout the season. Price didn’t help the Red Sox’s cause in his most recent starts, as his ERA skyrocketed from 3.16 on July 14 to 4.36 after the last time he took the ball. But the 33-year-old has still been among the club’s most effective starters this season. His K/BB ratio (4.06) ranks 26th out of 103 pitchers who have thrown at least 100 innings in 2019.

  • The Orioles fired a combined 11 members of their front office and scouting departments Friday, Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com relays. Tripp Norton, who had been the Orioles’ director of baseball operations dating back to 2012 (and was with the O’s since 1998), was the most prominent member of the organization to lose his job. The club also parted with scout Nathan Showalter, son of ex-Baltimore manager Buck Showalter. First-year general manager Mike Elias, who’s attempting to remake the front office in his image, said the team will “be very busy bringing people into this organization” to replace those it let go.
  • Red Sox infielder Michael Chavis started a rehab assignment Friday, according to the team’s Triple-A affiliate in Pawtucket. Chavis went to the IL on Aug. 12 with an AC joint sprain in his left shoulder, continuing what has been a rough month for the 24-year-old. While Chavis was amid a slump when he landed on the shelf, he has enjoyed a respectable rookie year overall. Chavis has batted .254/.322/.444 with 18 home runs in 382 plate appearances and 95 games, during which he has split time between first and second base.
  • The Rays activated lefty Anthony Banda from the 60-day injured list Friday and optioned him to Triple-A Durham, per Juan Toribio of MLB.com. They placed infielder Brandon Lowe (out for the season) on the 60-day IL in a corresponding 40-man move. Banda hasn’t pitched in the majors since undergoing Tommy John surgery in June 2018, though perhaps he’ll serve as a late-season reinforcement for the Rays. The 26-year-old has struggled at the Triple-A level this season, though, evidenced by a 5.57 ERA/6.14 FIP across 21 innings.

Latest On Chris Sale

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Chris Sale’s visit with Dr. James Andrews on Monday didn’t reveal any ligament damage in the star left-hander’s throwing elbow, Sale told reporters (including MLB.com’s Ian Browne) yesterday.  For now, Sale will continue to rest following a platelet-rich plasma injection shot, and he’ll be re-evaluated in six weeks.

While any visit to Dr. Andrews is usually considered as an ominous sign by fans and pundits (and as a harbinger of possible Tommy John surgery), Sale described his diagnosis as “not great news, but about as good as we could get.  We rest, I think maybe four to six weeks, get on a throwing program and get back to it.”

With the Red Sox sitting six games out of a wild card slot, postseason availability may be a moot point for the entire roster, though Sale in particular seems like a longshot for the playoff roster even if Boston does make a miracle run over the season’s final six weeks.  It was already known that the PRP shot’s six-week recovery period would cost Sale the remainder of the regular season, and Sox manager Alex Cora told media that it would “probably…be almost impossible” for Sale to be ready to contribute in October.

This will mark the second straight year that Sale has been limited by a late-season injury, as shoulder issues limited him to just 17 innings from July 28, 2018 until the end of the 2018 regular season.  It’s possible Sale could have pitched more if the Sox were in a pennant race rather than comfortably coasting to an AL East title, though even while cautiously deploying Sale during the playoff run, the lefty posted an uncharacteristically middling 4.11 ERA over 15 1/3 postseason innings.

All these injury questions loom large given that Sale’s five-year, $145MM extension with the team doesn’t begin until the start of the 2020 season.  Sale fully expects to be ready for the start of the next season, though between Sale, David Price and Nathan Eovaldi, the Red Sox have $79MM in 2020 salary committed to three starters with checkered health histories.

Sale has a career-worst 4.40 ERA over 147 1/3 innings, though that ERA has largely been boosted by a career-high 19.5% home run rate.  ERA predictors such as FIP (3.39), xFIP (2.94) and SIERA (3.00) paint a much more forgiving picture of the southpaw’s performance in 2019.  His 13.32 K/9 is still elite, and Sale’s .283 xwOBA is in the 81st percentile of all pitchers.  That said, Sale also has a 36% hard-hit ball rate, by far the highest of his career.

Rafael Devers’ Star Turn

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Considering his age, contract status and performance, there is no question that Boston’s Rafael Devers is on the short list of most valuable third basemen in the game. That Devers has reached this point isn’t something which would’ve shocked many observers back when the Red Sox promoted the then-touted prospect to the majors in July 2017. However, his production was closer to average than excellent over his first season-plus in the majors. That’s not a knock on Devers, who was – and still is – incredibly young for the level. This season, though, the 22-year-old has overcome his age to perform like one of the absolute best players in baseball.

Devers went off on the Orioles on Sunday, collecting four hits in five trips to the plate, including a home run and a pair of doubles. Just a few days earlier, he victimized Cleveland for six hits in as many attempts, notching a ridiculous four doubles. The left-hander now owns a .332/.380/.596 line with 27 home runs across 546 PA this season. We seldom cite RBI here at MLBTR, but the fact that Devers has piled up 101 is mighty impressive, too.

Among all position players, Devers ranks fifth in fWAR (5.5) – tied with multiple players, including Astros third base superstar Alex Bregman – and ninth in wRC+ (147). That’s the output of an elite player, not to mention a far cry from the 1.0 fWAR and 90 wRC+ Devers recorded over 490 trips to the plate just a year ago.

How did Devers go from there to here in such a short period of time? It starts with his strikeout rate. After fanning in roughly 24 percent of plate appearances in each of his first two campaigns, Devers has slashed the number to 16.1 this year. He’s only walking in the 7 percent range, which was the case from 2017-18, but drawing free passes at a below-average rate stings a lot less when you seldom strike out.

Devers’ downtick in K’s has come in spite of a more aggressive approach, believe it or not, as he has swung at a higher number of pitchers in general while making far more contact outside the zone. He put the bat on the ball in the neighborhood of 63 percent between 2017-18, but he’s all the way up to 70.9 in ’19. Furthermore, Devers has held his own against every pitch hurlers have thrown at him, evidenced by his production versus fastballs (.422 weighted on-base average/.405 expected wOBA), breaking balls (.357/.302) and offspeed offerings (.437/.411). Devers’ success against all pitches has helped him get past his woes against lefties, who held him to a ghastly 63 wRC+ a year ago. He’s up to a much more respectable 109 in that department versus southpaws this season.

Meanwhile, after sitting in the low .190s in previous years, Devers’ ISO (.264) has gone through the roof this season. Considering pitchers can’t seem to get anything past him anymore, that’s no surprise. While Devers has hit fewer fly balls this season, he has also amassed fewer grounders at the expense of more line drives. That’s a recipe for success, especially when you rank 17th in baseball in average exit velocity on liners and flies (96.9 mph). Similarly, Devers sits 18th in percentage of balls hit at 95 mph-plus (49.2). As you’d expect, then, he’s a Statcast darling overall, also ranking near the pinnacle of the sport in expected weighted on-base average (89th), expected slugging percentage (92nd), expected batting average (96th), hard-hit rate (96th). The “weakest” figure of the bunch is Devers’ xwOBA, but his .376 (compared to a .405 real wOBA) is still fantastic and a 71-point increase over last year’s .305.

To be sure, a likely unsustainable .359 batting average on balls in play has nudged Devers’ numbers upward this year. But a high BABIP isn’t anything new for Devers – who, aside from last year, has regularly logged marks well over .300 since his professional career began in 2014. Even if Devers’ BABIP does drop going forward, the Red Sox should still have one of the most coveted players in baseball on their hands. In a season that hasn’t gone the defending champions’ way, Devers has clearly been a bright light, and with one more pre-arbitration campaign remaining and four more years of team control left, he could be a Boston standout for a while longer.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Chris Sale Out For Remainder Of Regular Season

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5:17pm: The team update does have some bad news: Sale has received a platelet-rich plasma treatment and will be shut down for at least six weeks. He’ll be reevaluated at that time.

Whether there’s any possibility of Sale appearing in the postseason isn’t known. But with less than six weeks to go before the end of the regular season, it’s now certain he will not be able to help the club make a last-ditch run at sneaking into Wild Card position.

The update doesn’t fill in any blanks regarding the underlying issues in the joint. But given the course of treatment, it seems reasonable to presume that the medical team has identified something beyond inflammation alone.

4:04pm: If you’re a Red Sox fan, you may now safely exhale. Boston lefty Chris Sale will not require Tommy John surgery, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (Twitter link).

Precisely what is wrong with Sale’s elbow isn’t yet clear. But it seems that a visit to Dr. James Andrews did not reveal anything beyond the inflammation that initially sent the southpaw to the injured list.

We’ll keep updating the situation as further information emerges. Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe notes (via Twitter) that the club is preparing to release a statement on the topic of Sale’s health.

Poll: Who Will Be The AL’s Wild Card Teams?

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The Twins hold a 2.5-game lead over the Indians in the AL Central after today’s action, and in addition to fighting for the division crown, both clubs are desperately trying to avoid facing even more competition in the AL wild card hunt.  Cleveland (74-51) is currently in possession of the top wild card spot, with the Rays (73-52) in the second slot, just a game behind.

Despite taking three of four games from the Astros, the Athletics are still 7.5 games behind Houston in the AL West, leaving the wild card as Oakland’s most realistic shot at a postseason berth.  The A’s (71-53) are 1.5 games behind the Rays.

Had this poll been posted even a couple of days ago, the Red Sox would likely have been omitted, yet a five-game winning streak merits them a mention.  Boston (67-59) is still 6.5 games behind Tampa Bay, and don’t have many head-to-head opportunities remaining against their division rivals, as the Sox and Rays only play four more times this season.  The Red Sox do have a three-game set against Minnesota on September 3-5 at Fenway Park.

The Twins have six critical September games lined up against the Tribe, but beyond those two series, Minnesota has a clear advantage over Cleveland in terms of benefiting from their weak division.  Twenty-six of the Twins’ remaining 38 games are against the White Sox, Royals, and Tigers, while the Indians only face the AL Central’s lesser lights 16 times in their final 37 games.

It all adds up to a wild final six weeks of action, particularly since injuries, roster shuffles, and players on both incredible hot streaks and cold streaks continue to change the narrative on a near-daily basis.  In particularly, all three non-AL Central teams face looming questions about their pitching staffs.  Can the A’s get their long-awaited influx of young pitching reinforcements once multiple arms return from the injured list?  Can the Rays get by three-fourths of their regular rotation (Blake Snell, Yonny Chirinos, Tyler Glasnow) still hurt?  Can the Red Sox mount a late-season comeback even as their own inconsistent rotation has suffered perhaps a critical blow?

Which two teams do you think will emerge from the fray to play in the one-game Wild Card playoff in October?  (Poll link for app users)

Prospect Notes: Lux, Adell, Dalbec, Hall

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As Gavin Lux continues to shred Triple-A pitching, it isn’t yet clear if the star prospect will make his Dodgers debut in 2019, Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register writes.  Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman simply said “I don’t know” when asked about the possibility of a Lux promotion, as Friedman cited considerations like finding room for Lux on the 40-man roster while juggling the roster status of other players returning from the injured list.  “I think more of our mental energy is being spent on how to configure our pitching staff (for the postseason) more than our position players that are doing pretty well,” Friedman said.

Lux entered today’s action hitting an unfathomable .415/.497/.768 over 191 plate appearances for Triple-A Oklahoma City (not to mention “only” a .313/.375/.521 slash line in 291 PA at Double-A before his latest promotion).  While he has spent much of his pro career at shortstop, Lux has also seen a lot of action at second base, which would be his logical position both in the event of a September call-up and probably for the future, since Corey Seager isn’t leaving L.A. anytime soon.  Then again, the Dodgers’ list of second base candidates is also long — Chris Taylor and Enrique Hernandez are expected to return from the IL on Tuesday, Jedd Gyorko and Kristopher Negron are utility options, and Max Muncy needs an everyday role if the Dodgers continue to deploy Cody Bellinger at first base.  Interestingly, Friedman hinted that Lux could potentially join the Dodgers in a non-roster capacity in September, traveling with the team and learning the ropes of being a big leaguer without actually being on the active roster.

Here’s some more on some of the game’s stars of the future…

  • There’s more clarity on a heralded youngster on Los Angeles’ other team, as the Angels currently aren’t planning to call Jo Adell up for his first taste of MLB action in September, Mike DiGiovanna of the L.A. Times tweets.  Prospect ranking outlets have Adell as a consensus top-four minor leaguer in the sport, though preseason ankle and hamstring injuries kept him from making his 2019 debut until May 24, and he has only a modest .233/.303/.317 slash line over 67 plate appearances in his first stint at Triple-A.  As a result, the Angels look to give Adell more seasoning and some time at winter ball before looking to promote him to the majors.  It has been widely speculated that Adell could be an everyday member of the Halos’ outfield as early as Opening Day 2020, as Kole Calhoun is a free agent this offseason.
  • Could the Red Sox go with a youth movement at first base next season?  Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe wonders if this could be the case, as since Mitch Moreland and Steve Pearce will both be free agents, the Sox could turn to either Michael Chavis or top prospect Bobby Dalbec.  Abraham notes that while Chavis has played a lot of second base this season, the keystone is “probably not a long-term position for him,” and thus Chavis could be used at first base, in the outfield, all over the diamond as a super-utility player, or potentially even as an offseason trade chip to add pitching.  A fourth-rounder for Boston in the 2016 draft, Dalbec (ranked 92nd on Baseball America’s list of the game’s top 100 prospects) has steadily climbed through the farm system and is now hitting well over his first two weeks at Triple-A.  Dalbec was originally drafted as a third baseman, but has increasingly seen more time at first base thanks to Rafael Devers establishing himself at the hot corner for the Sox.  While Devers and Xander Bogaerts have the left side of Boston’s infield locked down for the foreseeable future, the right side is much more in flux, between Moreland and Pearce possibly leaving and the continued uncertainty about whether Dustin Pedroia will ever be able to play again.  The Red Sox are likely to explore the market for first base and second base options this offseason, and Chavis will certainly be in the conversation at either position, Dalbec could also be an important piece of the team’s puzzle for 2020.
  • Orioles left-handed pitching prospect D.L. Hall has been shut down for the season following a left lat strain, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko reports (Twitter link).  While the injury isn’t considered serious, Hall won’t have enough time to get back before the Orioles’ A-ball affiliate in Frederick completes its season.  The 21st overall pick of the 2017 draft, Hall has a 3.46 ERA and 12.9 K/9 over 80 2/3 innings for Frederick this season, though with a troubling 6.0 BB/9.  ESPN’s Keith Law ranked Hall 35th in his midseason top-50 prospects list and Baseball America has Hall 38th in their top 100 list, while MLB.com (62) and Fangraphs (63) are just a touch less bullish on his promise.

Red Sox Place Chris Sale On 10-Day IL With Elbow Inflammation

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6:37 pm: Ryan Brasier has been called up from Triple-A Pawtucket to fill Sale’s spot on the active roster, according to a report from the Boston Herald’s Steve Hewitt (link).

4:52 pm: It appears the issue may indeed be more serious than initially believed. Per President of Baseball Ops Dave Dombrowski (h/t to Bill Koch of the Providence Journal) the injury is “brand new” and the team will seek a second opinion from renowned surgeon Dr. James Andrews. No timetable has been set for Sale’s return.

4:34 pm: The Red Sox have placed lefty Chris Sale on the 10-Day IL with left elbow inflammation, the team reports.

The 30-year-old Sale’s performance has been much-maligned this season, though apart from his participation in the league-wide gopher-ball parade, his dominant stuff seems very well intact. Sale’s still setting down a league-best 13.32 per nine, walking a minuscule 2.26/9, and getting grounders at a league-average rate. His FIP is a full run lower than his 4.40 ERA, while his 2.94 xFIP (a metric that accounts for his career-worst 19.5% HR/FB) ranks second in the AL to Gerrit Cole.

In short, it’s still all there for Sale, provided the left-hander isn’t dealing with a more serious injury to his left elbow than initially believed. The Red Sox have fallen six and a half games behind Tampa in the team’s quest for a second wild card spot, so perhaps it’d be prudent to give the seven-time all-star all the rest he needs.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Rick Porcello

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Relative to expectations, the 2019 season has been a major disappointment for the Red Sox. Many teams would be satisfied with Boston’s 64-59 record, but after winning 108 regular-season games and a World Series in 2018, what the club has done in the first four-plus months of this year looks rather underwhelming. The unspectacular performance of right-hander Rick Porcello is among the many reasons the Red Sox have fallen short of expectations this season.

Porcello wasn’t great last year during the Red Sox’s latest run to a championship, but he gave the team 33 starts and 191 1/3 innings of 4.28 ERA/4.01 FIP pitching. That was a valuable complementary effort to the better output Chris Sale and David Price put forth. This season, though, Porcello has logged a far worse 5.67 ERA/4.92 FIP across 133 1/3 frames. He ranks dead last among 69 qualified starters in ERA and sixth from the bottom in FIP. It’s an unexpected fall from grace for someone who won the American League Cy Young Award in 2016, when Porcello posted a 3.15 ERA/3.40 FIP in 223 innings.

The fact that the 30-year-old Porcello’s just a couple months from his first-ever trip to free agency makes his subpar season all the more inopportune. Luckily for Porcello, he has already received one significant payday in his career. Back in April 2015, just months after they acquired him in a trade with the Tigers that also included outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, the Red Sox signed Porcello to a four-year, $82.5MM extension. Porcello was a decent mid- to back-of-the-rotation innings eater at that point, which – Cy Young season aside – has largely been the case in Boston.

This year has been the worst as a member of the Red Sox for Porcello, who hasn’t just seen his run prevention numbers go backward. Porcello has also struck out just 7.22 batters per nine, which is down from a personal-best 8.94 a year ago and sits 14th from the bottom among qualified starters. Meanwhile, although Porcello’s 2.43 walks per nine certainly isn’t bad, it’s the highest of his career. His K/BB ratio (2.97) is superior to just 24 other starters’. Porcello’s groundball rate (38.9) stands as a career worst, too, and pales in comparison to the 50 percent-plus marks he consistently recorded as a Tiger.

Beyond those numbers, Statcast doesn’t think much of what Porcello has done this season. It ranks him toward the bottom of the majors in expected slugging percentage against (.475; 15th percentile), fastball velocity (91.1 mph; 16th percentile), expected weighted on-base average (.332, compared to a .346 wOBA; 32nd percentile), expected batting average (.256; 36th percentile) and hard-hit percentage (46th percentile).

It’s clear there hasn’t been a lot to like this season about Porcello, who will nonetheless try to find a sizable deal in free agency a few months from now. He’ll definitely fall behind Gerrit Cole, Madison Bumgarner, Cole Hamels, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Zack Wheeler, Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson and Dallas Keuchel (perhaps among others) in the open market pecking order, while there are several other starters in a similar class to Porcello who could negatively affect his earning power. A short-term contract (one or two years) seems like a strong possibility for Porcello, who’s likely to struggle to reach eight figures on his next pact. That obviously isn’t what Porcello had in mind when he earned the AL’s top pitcher honors just three years ago.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Latest On Nathan Eovaldi

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WEDNESDAY: Not so fast. Eovaldi came out of Boston’s bullpen Tuesday. Having only thrown six pitches, he will be available today, but will not get the start, Cora told reporters including Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com (via Twitter). Brian Johnson will instead take the ball to open today’s contest. Where things go from this point remains to be seen.

TUESDAY: After a short run as a reliever, the Red Sox are returning right-hander Nathan Eovaldi to a starting role. Eovaldi will start Wednesday and then spend the rest of the season in the Red Sox’s rotation, Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe reports. He’ll only throw around 55 pitches Wednesday, according to manager Alex Cora (via Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe).

Eovaldi has been a starter for almost all of his career, but after he sat out from late April toward the end of July while recovering from elbow surgery, reliever-needy Boston planned to give him a shot as its closer. The decision came in part because the Red Sox weren’t sure if Eovaldi would have the time to build his arm up enough to go back to his typical job as a starter. Eovaldi did not acquit himself well out of the Red Sox’s bullpen, though, as he has allowed eight earned runs in 10 2/3 innings since coming off the injured list. The 29-year-old didn’t even rack up a save attempt, with the club instead using Brandon Workman as its closer.

The hard-throwing Eovaldi also had a tough time as a starter this year before going under the knife, which isn’t what the Red Sox envisioned when they splurged on him last winter. After coming over in a midsummer trade with the Rays and then establishing himself as one of the Red Sox’s many playoff heroes during their championship run in 2018, they re-signed him to a four-year, $67.5MM contract in free agency. Eovaldi has since logged a 6.25 ERA/5.74 FIP with 8.81 K/9 and 4.26 BB/9 across 31 2/3 innings. He’s one of many Boston pitchers who have gone through less-than-ideal seasons.

Thanks largely to the struggles of their pitching staff, the Red Sox are on track to begin their offseason far earlier than expected this year. The club’s 62-59, placing it a whopping 17 1/2 games behind the Yankees in the American League East and 8 1/2 back of a wild-card spot. Realistically, it’s time to start looking ahead to 2020, when Eovaldi, Chris Sale, the currently injured David Price and Eduardo Rodriguez figure to comprise 80 percent of the team’s rotation.

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