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Red Sox Place James Paxton On 15-Day Injured List

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The Red Sox announced that left-hander James Paxton has been place on the 15-day injured list (retroactive to September 7) due to right knee inflammation.  In other transactions, Boston called up right-hander Nick Robertson from Triple-A Worcester and activated righty Garrett Whitlock from the bereavement list, while left-hander Joe Jacques has been optioned to Triple-A.

The timing of the IL move means that Paxton’s 2023 campaign is over, as Red Sox manager Alex Cora told The Boston Globe’s Alex Speier and other reporters that Nick Pivetta will take Paxton’s place in the rotation for the remainder of the season.  Paxton will finish the year with a 4.50 ERA over 96 innings, as well as a 24.6% strikeout rate and 8.0% walk rate that were both above the league average.

Considering that injuries (including a Tommy John surgery) limited Paxton to only six games and 21 2/3 total innings between the 2020-22 seasons, just getting onto a mound and making it almost the entire way through the 2023 season counts as a significant achievement for the southpaw.  A Spring Training hamstring injury delayed Paxton’s debut until May 12, but he pitched well over his first four months before seemingly starting to wear down during August.  Paxton was tagged for 16 earned runs over his last three starts and 9 2/3 innings, putting a sour end on what had been a solid year.

The Sox had already planned to push Paxton’s next start back a few days, but since Cora implied that Paxton’s knee had been bothering him, the team has opted to shut the lefty down rather than risk any further injury.  While Paxton hadn’t been contributing much in his last few outings anyway, the IL decision also seems to hint how the Red Sox might be slowly turning to look towards 2024 rather than the wild card race, as Cora implied in today’s meeting with reporters.  Boston is seven games back of the last AL wild card slot, and with just a 72-70 record, finishing above .500 is no guarantee for the Sox, let alone a playoff berth.

The outcome might lead to some hindsight about Boston’s decision to keep Paxton at the trade deadline, as the Rangers (and likely several other teams) had interest in the left-hander prior to August 1.  For the second straight season, Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom opted to both buy and sell at the deadline, though this year’s Red Sox club was closer in the race than the 2022 edition.  The very streaky nature of this year’s club also makes it understandable why Bloom didn’t swing too hard in either transactional direction at the deadline, and since the Sox were already hurting for pitching, it makes sense why the team would’ve wanted to keep Paxton as a key piece of whatever late-season push might have been in store.

With Paxton’s 2023 now over, it is possible he has also thrown his last pitch in a Red Sox uniform.  He is set to hit free agency this winter, and it will be interesting to see what kind of deal Paxton could land as he enters his age-35 season and on the back of a year that saw mostly good results when healthy.  Assuming this knee problem doesn’t develop into anything serious, Paxton could have a case for a multi-year agreement, though teams will likely prefer a one-year deal with vesting/club options (maybe similar to his previous deal with the Red Sox) given his lengthy health history.

AL East Notes: Red Sox, Paredes, Swanson

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Top prospect Ceddanne Rafaela has found limited playing time with the Red Sox since being called up at the end of August despite an overall strong performance at the plate in the majors so far, going 7-for-16 with two doubles. When asked about Rafaela’s playing time, manager Alex Cora told reporters (including MassLive’s Chris Cotillo) that Rafaela will continue to play in a reserve role as long as the club remains in the playoff race.

While the playoff odds at Fangraphs give the Red Sox just a 1.3% chance to make the postseason after tonight’s loss to Baltimore, Boston still has three games to go against each of the two clubs directly ahead of them in the standings, Texas and Toronto. That gives them a slim opening for a miracle run despite being a whopping seven games back of the final AL Wild Card spot with just three weeks to go in the regular season. With Rafaela’s first taste of everyday action in the big leagues on hold for the time being, the versatile youngster figures to share time at second base with Enmanuel Valdez while also offering backup options to Trevor Story at shortstop and Adam Duvall in center field.

More from the AL East…

  • Rays infielder Isaac Paredes exited today’s game after being hit in the hand by a pitch from right-hander Luke Weaver during the fifth inning of today’s game against the Mariners. Fortunately for Tampa, x-rays on Paredes’s hand came back negative and the 24-year-old third baseman was diagnosed with a hand contusion. Manager Kevin Cash indicated to reporters (including those at MLB.com) that Paredes won’t be in tomorrow’s starting lineup and is day-to-day, but could be available off the bench if necessary. It’s been a breakout campaign for Paredes in 2023, as the youngster has slashed a fantastic .253/.352/.502 in 497 trips to the plate this season. 22-year-old rookie Osleivis Basabe figures to take over at the hot corner while Parades is out of action.
  • The Blue Jays could welcome back right-hander Erik Swanson in the near future. The righty has been out due to thoracic spine inflammation since late August, and he’ll reach the minimum 15 days spent on the IL tomorrow. Swanson made a rehab appearance with Triple-A Buffalo this evening, and notched one strikeout without allowing a baserunner during his inning of work. Assuming he bounces back from tonight’s outing well, MLB.com notes that Swanson could return to the big league club without requiring another rehab appearance. That’s great news for the Blue Jays, as Swanson was perhaps their most reliable set-up man for closer Jordan Romano before he went on the shelf. In 58 innings of work this season, Swanson sports a 3.10 ERA, 3.28 FIP, and a 29.4% strikeout rate. He figures to form a lethal three-headed-monster at the back of the Toronto bullpen alongside Romano and deadline addition Jordan Hicks should the Blue Jays make it to the postseason.

Red Sox Claim Logan Gillaspie From Orioles

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The Red Sox have claimed right-hander Logan Gillaspie off waivers from the Orioles, per Ian Browne of MLB.com, and optioned him to Triple-A. The O’s had designated the righty for assignment over the weekend. To open a spot on their 40-man, the Sox transferred outfielder Jarren Duran to the 60-day injured list.

Gillaspie, 26, tossed 26 1/3 innings for the Orioles between last year and this year. He had a 4.10 earned run average in that time, striking out just 15% of batters faced but limiting walks to a 6.7% rate. In Triple-A this year, he’s thrown 36 1/3 innings with a 4.71 ERA, 21.4% strikeout rate and 10.1% walk rate. His numbers at that level were stronger last year, despite a 5.09 ERA. He struck out 24.8% of Triple-A hitters he faced while walking just 5.9%.

The Sox essentially had a roster spot to burn, since it was announced last week that Duran would require season-ending surgery to deal with a turf toe injury. That made his transfer to the 60-day injured list inevitable and the club has now used his roster spot to add another depth arm to the system. Gillaspie will still have one more option year beyond this season and he has less than a year of service time.

AL East Notes: Means, Bautista, Verdugo, Bradley

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The Orioles have had a wildly successful 2023 campaign, with an 84-51 record that places them 2.5 games ahead of the Rays in a highly competitive AL East division. Despite that success, the club’s clear Achilles heel throughout the season has been the starting rotation, which has produced just 8.3 fWAR this year, 19th in the majors and only better than San Francisco among clubs currently in playoff position. While the club added right-hander Jack Flaherty at the trade deadline to bolster their staff, he’s struggled to a 6.41 ERA in 19 2/3 innings of work with Baltimore.

Given this, it should be a major relief to Orioles fans that left-hander John Means may be nearing a return to the big league club. MLB.com’s Jake Rill relays that manager Brandon Hyde indicated to reporters that Means will make another rehab start with Triple-A Norfolk but could be available to join the club’s big league rotation following that. Means, of course, hasn’t pitched since April 2022 after undergoing Tommy John surgery but sports a 3.72 ERA and 4.59 FIP in 353 1/3 innings of work since the start of his rookie campaign back in 2019. If the 30-year-old lefty can recapture his steady, mid-rotation performance from prior to his surgery in time for the postseason, he’ll surely be an asset to a rotation that figures to include right-handers Kyle Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, and Kyle Gibson.

More from around the AL East…

  • Sticking with the Orioles, closer Felix Bautista hit the injured list with “some degree of injury” to his UCL last week, though since then specifics regarding his situation have been sparse. Hyde provided an update regarding Bautista to reporters this afternoon, with Rill relaying that the club is waiting for inflammation in Bautista’s elbow to go down before deciding on next steps. While Bautista already underwent an MRI, Rill notes that more tests could be in the 28-year-old’s future as the club tries to determine the best course of action for their breakout relief ace.
  • Red Sox outfielder Alex Verdugo exited today’s game against the Royals due to what the club termed as hamstring tightness. Pete Abraham of The Boston Globe caught up with Verdugo following the game and the 27-year-old downplayed the severity of the issue, suggesting that he “felt a little something” in his hamstring during the sixth inning and that it should be taken care of with a day or two of rest. Should Verdugo miss more time than that, the club has Wilyer Abreu, Cedanne Rafaela, and Rob Refsnyder as options to fill out the outfield alongside Adam Duvall and Masataka Yoshida.
  • The Rays recalled rookie starter Taj Bradley today, with the 22-year-old hurler taking the place of the recently-injured Jason Adam on the active roster. Bradley’s first sixteen starts with Tampa were something of a mixed bag; while the youngster dazzled with a 30% strikeout rate against a 7.9% walk rate, his 5.67 ERA in 74 2/3 innings left a great deal to be desired in terms of both results and volume. Of course, it’s worth pointing out that Bradley’s BABIP allowed was the sixth-highest figure in the majors among pitchers with at least 70 innings of work this year, while his strand rate was tenth lowest. That combination indicates some degree of bad luck in Bradley’s results, though a whopping 17.3% of his fly balls leaving the yard for home runs serves as an indicator that not all of his struggles have been pure misfortune. Bradley will look to end his rookie campaign on a high note as a member of the rotation alongside Tyler Glasnow, Aaron Civale, Zach Eflin, and Zack Littell.

Jarren Duran To Undergo Season-Ending Toe Surgery

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The Red Sox announced to reporters, including Christopher Smith of MassLive, that outfielder Jarren Duran will have season-ending turf toe surgery tomorrow. Duran is already on the 10-day injured list but will be transferred to the 60-day version whenever the Sox needs his roster spot. Manager Alex Cora said they expect him to be back by Spring Training, per Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic.

Duran, 26, suffered the injury when scaling the wall at Yankee Stadium, attempting to reach a home run ball hit by Gleyber Torres. He was placed on the injured list a week ago with the Sox describing his injury as a left great toe sprain. It seems the injury is significant enough that he’ll have to go under the knife and won’t be able to come back this year.

It’s an unfortunately sour end to a nice breakout season for the outfielder. He had gotten into 91 games over 2021 and 2022 but struck out in 30.7% of his 335 plate appearances. His .219/.269/.354 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 67, indicating he was 33% below league average in that time. That put him behind players like Adam Duvall and Raimel Tapia on the depth chart and Duran started the season at Triple-A.

But Duvall’s injury absence and Tapia’s struggles opened a path for Duran that he ran with. He was recalled in mid-April and went on to hit .295/.346/.482 for a wRC+ of 120. His 24.9% strikeout rate is still above average but a significant improvement over his own previous work. The reviews on his glovework were mixed, with -5 Defensive Runs Saved but Ultimate Zone Rating grading him just below par at -0.6 and Outs Above Average having him as breaking even. He also stole 24 bases while getting caught just twice. That will now go down as the totality of this 2023 work, as he won’t be returning. It’s a tough loss for the Sox, who are now 5.5 games out of a playoff spot with just over a month left in the season.

Going forward, Duran still has five years of club control remaining and seems to have increased his chances of being a viable long-term solution in center. Tapia is no longer on the team and Duvall is set to become a free agent at season’s end, though he’ll likely continue manning center for the time being. Prospects Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela could also be in the mix, as they both have recently been promoted, though they will each go into 2024 with less experience that Duran.

Red Sox Promote Ceddanne Rafaela

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3:55pm: The Sox have now officially announced all of these moves.

3:30pm: The Red Sox are recalling prospect Ceddanne Rafaela, per Ian Browne of MLB.com, along with infielder/outfielder David Hamilton. In corresponding moves, infielder Pablo Reyes is going on the injured list while outfielder Wilyer Abreu heads to the paternity list.

Rafaela, now 22, was signed by the Sox as an amateur out of Curaçao for a modest bonus of $10K. He has since performed well in his rise through the minor leagues and is now considered one of the club’s top prospects, though a somewhat divisive one. He has always hit well on the farm but has done so while swinging at just about everything, leading some evaluators to question whether that hyper-aggressive approach could be exploited by major league pitchers. He also began as an infielder but wasn’t considered an excellent defender there, though his move to center field a few years ago seems to have been an astute one, as he’s now considered elite at that position.

His overall prospect stock shot up in 2022, as he split his time between High-A and Double-A with a combined batting line of .299/.342/.538 and a wRC+ of 134 while spending more time in the outfield. That got him onto some top 100 prospect lists and selected to Boston’s 40-man roster in November, to protect him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft. He’s had another strong performance here in 2023, hitting .302/.349/.520 between Double-A and Triple-A for a wRC+ of 121.

As mentioned, there is divided opinion on Rafaela as a prospect. Baseball America doesn’t currently have him on their top 100, recently ranking him #6 in the club’s system. Kiley McDaniel recently provided a top 50 update to his prospect rankings without Rafaela making the cut. However, MLB Pipeline has him at #77 in the league, Keith Law of The Athletic recent put him at #48 and FanGraphs has him all the way up at #31.

The major question mark seems to be whether his approach at the plate will work in the big leagues. He’s drawn walks in just 105 of his 1,852 plate appearances in the minors thus far, a rate of 5.7% that’s well below the 8.5% major league average. But his overall offense is strong enough that he’ll get a chance against big league pitching.

This part of the calendar is a popular time for prospect promotions, since there’s not enough time left in the season for players to exhaust rookie eligibility. That’s significant under the new collective bargaining agreement, as players with rookie status that feature on top prospect lists can potentially earn their clubs an extra draft pick in future seasons based on awards voting.

That will be a concern for the future. For now, the club will hope Rafaela can hit the ground running and perhaps provide a jolt to finish the year, as they are currently just 4.5 games out of a playoff spot. But it will also give them a chance to evaluate Rafaela prior to the offseason, with center field a bit of a question mark. Adam Duvall has spent plenty of time there but is a free agent at season’s end. Jarren Duran has had a breakout season but is getting some help from a .381 batting average on balls in play and is currently on the injured list. Abreu has been playing some center but is considered by many to be a better fit for a corner. The final weeks of the season could perhaps provide the club some more information on how their center field depth chart looks for 2024.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Injury Notes: Dodgers, Devers, Manning, Houser

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Dodgers manager Dave Roberts provided a host of injury updates this afternoon regarding various relief options for the club as LA hurtles toward their eleventh consecutive playoff appearance, as relayed by Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register. While right-hander Tony Gonsolin will not be an option for the club down the stretch this year, Roberts provided updates on a pair of relievers who could still impact the club in 2023: right-handers Joe Kelly and Yency Almonte.

Kelly threw a bullpen session recently but is still struggling with pain in his elbow, per Roberts. The veteran righty, who threw 3 2/3 scoreless innings with the Dodgers after joining the club at the trade deadline alongside Lance Lynn, went on the injured list earlier this month with elbow inflammation. According to Roberts, Kelly is expected to return in time for the postseason but there is “a chance he’s not gonna be 100%” when he does. Almonte, meanwhile, has a clearer timeline, with Roberts indicating that the 29 year old is two to three weeks from a return from his knee injury.

Most interesting for Dodgers fans will surely be Roberts’ comments on right-hander Walker Buehler, who’s aiming to return from Tommy John surgery before the 2023 season comes to a close. Buehler hasn’t started a rehab assignment, but Plunkett relays that Roberts still believes Buehler’s long-stated goal of returning to the big league mound for games in September is still on the table, with the manager indicating that the club is planning on Buehler to return to the majors toward the middle of the month. While Roberts notes that Buehler’s stuff is in good shape, his command “hasn’t been good” and is something “he’ll have to work through” on his coming rehab assignment.

Healthy returns to the mound from Kelly, Almonte, and particularly Buehler would substantially deepen the club’s bullpen ahead of the postseason. While the Dodgers have been nothing short of dominant of late with just four losses in August, the club’s bullpen is a potential weak point, ranking roughly middle-of-the-pack in the majors with a 3.83 ERA and having been leaned on for the more innings than any NL bullpen besides those in Cincinnati and San Francisco.

More injury notes from around the league…

  • Star Red Sox third baseman Rafael Devers underwent x-rays on his wrist after being hit by a pitch during last night’s game against LA and struck from the lineup this afternoon. Fortunately, Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic relays that those x-rays came back negative, per manager Alex Cora. Cora added to reporters that Devers could return to the lineup as soon as tomorrow, depending on how the slugger is feeling. That’s surely a relief for Boston, as the 26-year-old infielder is perhaps the club’s most important and consistent players. Devers is in the midst of another season right in line with his career norms; since his breakout campaign in 2019, he’s slashed .288/.351/.529 with a 19.7% strikeout rate and a 131 wRC+. In 530 trips to the plate this season, Devers has essentially replicated that line, slashing .272/.347/.516 with a 18.7% strikeout rate and a 127 wRC+.
  • Tigers right-hander Matt Manning is preparing to make his next start on Wednesday after exiting his last start with lower back tightness. With that being said, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press indicated yesterday that Manning actually making his start on Wednesday is not a guarantee. Per Petzold, manager AJ Hinch told reporters that the club will “see how the next couple of days are” regarding Manning’s health before determining whether or not he’ll make his start. Petzold suggests right-hander Spencer Turnbull and left-hander Joey Wentz could be options to take the ball on Wednesday should Manning, who sports a 3.93 ERA in 13 starts with the Tigers this season, require a trip to the shelf.
  • Brewers righty Adrian Houser departed today’s start against the Padres after just two innings, having allowed four runs on four hits and a walk. Milwaukee indicated that Houser’s early exit was due to what the club termed “minor forearm tightness.” As relayed by Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Houser downplayed the injury’s seriousness in conversations with reporters, indicating he expects to make his next start after taking some time off to rest. Houser’s next start would line up for Saturday against the Phillies, though with a day off on Thursday Milwaukee has the ability to give Houser additional rest without using another starter, should he need it.

AL East Notes: Yankees, Kjerstad, Swanson

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The Yankees are among the teams interested in star NPB pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto, as noted by Newsday’s Erik Boland. Boland added that the club’s director of pro scouting Matt Daley is currently in Japan and another top scout visited to watch Yamamoto pitch earlier in the year. Jon Heyman of the New York Post also notes the Yankees interest, listing them among ten teams that scouted Yamamoto’s most recent start. That list of teams includes the club’s crosstown rival Mets as well as their division rival Red Sox.

Yamamoto, who claimed the #3 spot on MLBTR’s newest edition of the 2023-24 Free Agent Power Rankings, sports a sensational 1.34 ERA in 127 innings of work with the Orix Buffaloes this year, his age-24 season. That level of excellence extends all the way back to 2021; in 514 2/3 innings of work the past three seasons, Yamamoto’s ERA is 1.50 while he’s struck out 27.2% of batters he’s faced, walking just 5.2%. That level of dominance even eclipses that of former Yankee Masahiro Tanaka, who made two All Star appearances and posted a 3.33 ERA in ten postseason starts for the club after signing a seven-year, $155MM deal with New York prior to the 2014 season.

It’s no wonder the Yankees would have interest in Yamamoto; while they’ve gotten another excellent season out of ace Gerrit Cole, the club’s other starters have largely disappointed. Lefties Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes, nominally the club’s #2 and #3 starters, have been limited to just 7 and 12 starts respectively this season thanks to injuries and struggled badly. A Yamamoto signing would certainly give the Yankees a quality arm to pair with Cole at the top of their rotation while simultaneously helping to alleviate pressure not only on Rodon and Cortes, but also on youngsters like Clarke Schmidt, Jhony Brito, and Randy Vasquez entering 2024.

More from around the AL East…

  • Orioles outfield prospect Heston Kjerstad is on the club’s radar for a possible call-up option when rosters expand on September 1, as GM Mike Elias told reporters (including BaltimoreBaseball.com’s Rich Dubroff). The 2nd overall pick in the 2020 draft, Kjerstad didn’t make his MiLB debut until last June thanks to a myocarditis diagnosis but has done nothing but hit since then. In 473 trips to the plate this season between the Double-A and Triple-A levels, the 24-year-old outfielder has slashed a sensational .308/.378/.542 with a strikeout rate just below 18%. If called up for the stretch run, Kjerstad would join an outfield that typically sports Austin Hays in left, Cedric Mullins in center, and Anthony Santander in right.
  • Blue Jays reliever Erik Swanson exited today’s game against the Guardians with right mid-back discomfort, as noted by The Athletic’s Kaitlyn McGrath. The severity of Swanson’s injury isn’t yet known, but even a short absence for the right-hander, who sports a 3.10 ERA and a 29.4% strikeout rate in 58 innings of work this season, would be a substantial blow to Toronto’s bullpen. Of course, the club would still have right-handers Jordan Romano (2.60 ERA, 29.9% strikeout rate) and Jordan Hicks (3.83 ERA, 30.3% strikeout rate) available for the late innings even if Swanson required a trip to the injured list.

Red Sox Claim Zack Weiss From Angels

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Right-hander Zack Weiss, who was designated for assignment by the Angels earlier this week, has been claimed off waivers by the Red Sox. Both clubs announced the move, with the Red Sox adding that Weiss has been optioned to Triple-A Worcester. Righty Corey Kluber was transferred to the 60-day injured list to open a spot on Boston’s roster.

Weiss, 31, has been on the Angels’ roster just under a year now, getting added last September. Since that time, he’s been an up-and-down depth arm, getting frequently optioned to the minors. He has thrown 18 2/3 major league innings in that time with a 3.86 earned run average. He struck out 30.9% of batters faced but also walked 11.1%.

He’s spent more time this year in Triple-A, tossing 37 1/3 innings with a 6.03 ERA. He walked 14% of hitters at that level but struck out 29.2%. Those control issues pushed him off the Angels’ roster but the Red Sox will see if they can help him rein in that command and get better results. He can still be optioned for two more seasons after this one and has yet to reach one year of major league service time, meaning they can cheaply retain him for the foreseeable future as long as he continues to hold a spot on the 40-man.

Kluber’s transfer is little more than a formality since he’s already been on the injured list for more than 60 days at this point, having landed there in June due to right shoulder inflammation. He’s eligible to return whenever healthy but he was shut down in late July after experiencing a setback. There’s been no public reporting to indicate he’s close to a return and may have trouble getting back on the mound this year with just over a month left on the schedule.

Red Sox Promote Wilyer Abreu, Place Jarren Duran On Injured List

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3:35pm: The Red Sox have now made these moves official, recalling Abreu and placing Duran on the injured list. They also reinstated right-hander Tanner Houck from the IL and optioned lefty Chris Murphy.

10:37am: The Red Sox are planning to promote outfield prospect Wilyer Abreu for his Major League debut, as first reported by Augusto Cardenas. Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe hears the same, reporting that Abreu will be called up to replace Jarren Duran, who’s headed to the injured list following this weekend’s toe injury.

Abreu, 24, was one of two prospects acquired in the trade sending catcher Christian Vazquez from Boston to Houston last summer. The Venezuelan-born outfielder has posted impressive numbers in Triple-A Worcester this season, slashing .274/.391/.539 with 22 homers, 11 doubles, a triple and eight stolen bases (in nine tries). Abreu has walked in an immense 16.3% of his plate appearances while striking out at a manageable 20.1% clip.

FanGraphs and MLB.com both currently rank Abreu 17th among Boston farmhands, while Baseball America tabs him 22nd. The 2023 season has seen a pronounced step forward in terms of power production for Abreu, despite garnering only average ratings on his power in most scouting reports. He’s done that while reducing his strikeout rate by six percentage points over last year’s levels, too, which creates some optimism that he could perhaps elevate his status over the generally projected fourth outfielder.

Abreu is regarded as a disciplined hitter at the plate who can be too selective at times. He runs well enough to handle all three outfield spots but posts impressive stolen-base totals more due to his baserunning acumen than standout raw speed. Abreu has spent more time in the corners than in center this year, but he has more than 1200 career innings in center and could certainly step in at the position for Duran.

As for the 26-year-old Duran, he suffered a toe injury when scaling the wall on a Gleyber Torres home run. He was slated to undergo an MRI to evaluate the extent of the injury, and it seems there was enough concern to at least require a 10-day absence.

The injury puts a halt to a breakout season for the former top prospect. Duran has appeared in 102 games for the Sox, slashing .295/.346/.482 with eight homers, 34 doubles, a pair of triples and 24 steals (in 26 tries). He’s dropped his strikeout rate for the third straight year, now sitting at 24.9% — still higher than average but nowhere close to the alarming 30.7% clip he posted in 2021-22. In doing so, he looks to have seized a long-term spot in the Boston outfield; even with some expected regression in his .381 average on balls in play, Duran’s plus speed, average power and penchant for making hard contact should allow him to remain an above-average offensive contributor. The Sox can control him for five more years beyond the current season.

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