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The Trade That Started The Current Era Of White Sox Baseball

By Darragh McDonald | May 2, 2023 at 8:53pm CDT

At the end of the 2016 season, the White Sox found themselves at a remove from recent success. They hadn’t posted a winning record since 2012 and hadn’t made the postseason since 2008. There was some talent on the roster but it was decided that it was time to hit the reset button. After much speculation, they gave a clear indication that they were going into a rebuild in December of 2016 when they traded left-hander Chris Sale to the Red Sox for prospects Yoán Moncada, Michael Kopech, Luis Alexander Basabe and Victor Diaz.

Sale was already well established as one of the better pitchers in the game. At the time of the trade, he had thrown 1110 innings with an even ERA of 3.00, striking out 27.9% of batters faced while walking just 5.8% and getting grounders at a solid 43.8% clip. The White Sox had signed him to an extension going into 2013, a deal that ran through 2017 but with two affordable club options after that. Flipping an excellent pitcher with three affordable years of control left little doubt that a significant teardown was beginning.

The trade worked out very well for the Red Sox, as they would make the postseason in two of those three years with Sale, including winning the World Series in 2018. They then signed him to another extension going into 2019, which is a separate matter. Injuries have largely prevented him from providing much value on that deal, but the trade still looks like a success. They gave up some future talent but saw Sale post a 2.90 ERA in 2017 and then a 2.11 in 2018 as they hoisted their fourth title in a span of 15 years after an 86-year drought.

For the Pale Hose, this was the first of several future-focused moves they would make around that time. The day after the Sale deal, they traded outfielder Adam Eaton to the Nationals for young pitchers Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo López and Dane Dunning. In July of 2017, they would send lefty José Quintana across town to the Cubs for a package headlined by prospects Dylan Cease and Eloy Jiménez. Many of the players involved in these deals would go on to form the core of the club as it returned to contention, alongside homegrown players like Tim Anderson and Luis Robert Jr..

The return on Sale needed to be huge, given his immense talent and three remaining years of cheap control. Indeed, the White Sox secured an incredibly significant prospect package, highlighted by Moncada. A high profile youngster out of Cuba, he signed with the Red Sox in March of 2015 for a $31.5MM bonus. This was back before the hard spending cap on international amateurs was put in place, but the Sox did have to pay a 100% tax because they had already exceeded their bonus pool figure, meaning they shelled out $63MM to get Moncada into the system.

He then played incredibly well in Single-A in 2015, hitting .278/.380/.438 for a wRC+ of 135. In 2016, he shot through High-A and Double-A and even made an eight-game debut in the majors. He struggled in that first taste of the show but was still just 21 years old at the time of the trade and was considered one of the top prospects in the league. Baseball America ranked him the #3 prospect in baseball going into 2016 and #2 in 2017.

Prospects with such high rankings are rarely traded, so it was a significant haul for the White Sox. The Red Sox likely have few regrets since Sale helped them to another title, but that wasn’t all Chicago got in return. Kopech was a notable prospect in his own right, having been selected in the first round of the 2014 draft. He had shown good form in the lower levels of the minors and was also on BA’s top 100 list, coming in at #89 in 2016 and was eventually placed #32 going into 2017. Basabe was a bit behind those two but was still an intriguing player, ranked Boston’s #9 prospect in 2016 and then Chicago’s #8 prospect going into 2017. Diaz was the least notable of the bunch but still cracked BA’s list of top White Sox farmhands after the deal, getting the #26 spot.

Moncada would scuffle a bit in his first two seasons in Chicago. Over 2017 and 2018, he walked in 10.9% of his trips to the plate but also struck out in 33% of them. He did hit 25 combined home runs over those two years but his .234/.321/.403 batting line amounted to a wRC+ of 99, a hair below league average. In 2019, he finally broke out and showed why he had been so touted as a prospect. He launched 25 more homers that year and slashed .315/.367/.548 for a wRC+ of 139. He was also graded well for his third base defense and stole 10 bases, leading to a tally of 5.5 wins above replacement from FanGraphs, making him one of the top 20 position players that year. 2020 was set to be his final year of club control, but the White Sox decided they believed in the breakout and committed to Moncada. The two sides agreed in March of 2020 to a $70MM extension that runs through 2024 and has a club option for 2025.

It’s been a bit of a mixed bag since that deal was inked. Moncada slumped a bit in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season but the club went 35-25 and qualified for the postseason for the first time since 2008. He was back on form in 2021, hitting just 14 home runs but walking at an excellent 13.6% rate. His .263/.375/.412 line translated to a 120 wRC+ and he continued to get good grades for his glovework, leading to a 4.0 fWAR season. The Sox went 93-69 and topped the American League Central, making the postseason in consecutive years for the first time in franchise history.

2022 was a frustrating season for both player and team. Moncada made trips to the injured list for an oblique strain, a right hamstring strain and then a left hamstring strain. He got into just 104 games and didn’t play up to his usual standard when on the field. He was one of many injuries that held the club back, as they finished 81-81 and failed to extend their postseason run into a third year. He roared out of the gates here in 2023, hitting .308/.325/.564 in nine games, but he’s been on the injured list for a few weeks now due to a protruding disc in his back that’s touching a nerve.

Though he’s been inconsistent, Moncada has shown the capacity to be an excellent player when everything is clicking and he’s been a key part of the club’s recent success. It’s hard to say the same for Kopech, however, as various circumstances have prevented him from reaching the heights that had previously been imagined for him. By the time the 2018 season rolled around, Kopech was considered by BA to be the #11 prospect in the league. That year, he thrived in Triple-A, posting a 3.70 ERA over 24 starts while striking out 31.3% of batters faced. He got called up to the majors in August but made just four starts before requiring Tommy John surgery, which wiped out the remainder of that season as well as his 2019. He then opted out of the 2020 pandemic season, returning to the club in 2021. Since he had missed two whole seasons, he was kept in relief that year. He fared well in that role, registering a 3.50 ERA in 69 1/3 innings, striking out 36.1% of batters faced.

He had built up a decent innings total that would allow him to return to the rotation in 2022, but the reins weren’t completely off. He made trips to the injured list for a knee strain and shoulder inflammation, tossing 119 1/3 innings on the year. He finished with a 3.54 ERA but a diminished 21.3% strikeout rate. A .223 batting average on balls in play likely helped him skate by, with his 4.50 FIP and 4.73 SIERA showing a bit less enthusiasm. He’s struggled out of the gates early here in 2023, with a 7.01 ERA after five starts.

As for the other two players in the deal, Basabe topped out at Double-A in the White Sox’ system before getting designated for assignment in 2020. He was then traded to the Giants, who gave him a nine-game MLB stint that year before outrighting him in the winter. He returned to the White Sox on a minor league deal last year but was released after a rough showing in just nine Triple-A games. Diaz pitched in the lower levels of the system in 2017 but injuries prevented him from getting into any official action after that. His transactions tracker indicates he was officially released in 2021.

It’s too early to completely close the book on the trade from Chicago’s perspective. Moncada is still under contract through 2024 and there’s the option for 2025. Kopech can still be retained via arbitration through 2025. There’s still time for things to change, but as of right now, the deal looks like a sort of microcosm of the club’s rebuild on the whole. There have been some good moments but it hasn’t quite been the runaway success that was envisioned. Moncada has had some good years but has been inconsistent and held back by injuries. Kopech has shown flashes of his talent but hasn’t really put it all together yet.

That semi-successful return in the deal has coincided with a semi-successful stretch of contention for the club, who made the playoffs twice recently but now seem at risk of seeing it fall apart. Their 8-21 record has them in a hole that they will have to crawl out of soon or else they’ll have to consider another selloff like the one they started over six years ago.

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Boston Red Sox Chicago White Sox MLBTR Originals Transaction Retrospection Chris Sale Luis Alexander Basabe Michael Kopech Victor Diaz Yoan Moncada

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Zack Kelly Undergoes Nerve Procedure, Could Return This Season

By Anthony Franco | May 2, 2023 at 8:15pm CDT

Red Sox right-hander Zack Kelly underwent an ulnar nerve transposition revision in his throwing elbow, the club announced. The Sox had announced a few weeks ago that Kelly would require surgery, though the procedure didn’t take place until today.

While Boston didn’t provide a recovery timetable, Chris Cotillo of MassLive reports the team isn’t ruling out a return in September. That the 28-year-old reliever could potentially make it back to an MLB mound this season counts as good news considering Kelly’s injury initially seemed disastrous. He was visibly distraught when he sustained it on a pitch during an April 12 outing in Tampa Bay. The general concern was he’d suffered some form of ligament damage, but an MRI instead revealed it was a nerve issue.

Fortunate as it is Kelly won’t require Tommy John surgery, he’s still in line for an extended absence. The Sox have already placed him on the 60-day injured list. He’ll be paid at the MLB minimum rate while he recovers.

In other Boston pitching news, righty Garrett Whitlock went for a medical evaluation today. Whitlock himself is on the injured list due to ulnar neuritis, though his issue seems far less serious than Kelly’s. Jen McCaffrey of the Athletic reports that Whitlock avoided any new symptoms during today’s examination (Twitter link). According to McCaffrey, he’s been cleared to begin throwing from 45 feet.

Whitlock will be out until at least the second week of May. It’s not clear if or how long beyond the minimal stint he’ll require on the shelf, though it’s a relief he’s throwing within five days of his IL placement. Manager Alex Cora has already told reporters the Sox will keep Whitlock in the rotation — where he’s pitched this year after bouncing between starting and relief last season — whenever he’s ready to return.

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Boston Red Sox Garrett Whitlock Zack Kelly

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Red Sox Notes: Whitlock, Rotation, Casas

By Steve Adams | May 1, 2023 at 10:48am CDT

Despite a series of injuries to Garrett Whitlock and a history of success in the bullpen, the Red Sox are planning to keep the 26-year-old righty in the rotation once he returns from the injured list, writes Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe. Manager Alex Cora plainly stated multiple times this weekend that the organization views Whitlock as a starter, and he pushed back on the notion that pitching on consecutive days, being ready to throw nearly everyday, warming up and sitting down without getting into a game (i.e. all the rigors that come with being a relief pitcher) would help Whitlock remain healthier.

Whitlock has a career 4.75 ERA in 55 innings as a starter compared to a 2.24 mark in 112 2/3 frames as a reliever, but he’s not yet had a lengthy audition in the rotation. Part of that is due to health issues — he had Tommy John surgery in 2020, missed time this year recovering from hip surgery, and is now with ulnar neuritis in his right arm — but the Sox remain committed to giving him an opportunity to work as a member of the starting staff.

Turning a lineup over has proven difficult for Whitlock to this point in his young career. Opponents have batted .275/.313/.363 against him the first time around as a starter, but that jumps to .272/.313/.533 on the second trip and .300/.364/.700 on the third time through (albeit, in a sample of just 22 plate appearances).

The Boston rotation currently consists of Chris Sale, Corey Kluber, Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck and Brayan Bello. Houck, who’s also hoping to establish himself as a viable long-term rotation piece for the Sox, is the only member of that group with an ERA south of 5.00. Sale, Kluber and Bello are all north of six earned runs per nine frames in their limited 2023 work thus far. Given those struggles and the fact that Kluber (signed through ’23) and Sale (signed through ’24) are relatively short-term pieces, it makes sense to see whether Whitlock, who is signed through 2026 with a pair of club options thereafter, can eventually find his footing in a rotation setting.

One potential arm on the mend is lefty James Paxton, who could impact the starting staff sooner than later. The veteran southpaw hasn’t appeared in a Major League game since April 2021 thanks to Tommy John surgery, a significant lat strain and a more minor hamstring strain, but he’s made five rehab appearances and was particularly sharp his last time out, with 5 1/3 shutout frames and an 8-to-1 K/BB ratio. It’s a stark contrast from an April 19 rehab appearance against the Phillies’ Triple-A affiliate, where Paxton was tattooed for seven runs while only recording two outs.

MLB.com notes that Paxton will be reevaluated today to determine whether another rehab start is necessary. He’s coming up on the end of his 30-day minor league rehab window next week but would have time to make one more Triple-A outing if the organization deems it best for him.

In the lineup, the Sox have seen struggles from another hopeful long-term piece: first baseman Triston Casas, who’s hitting just .133/.283/.293 through his first 92 trips to the plate. The Athletic’s Jen McCaffrey writes that the team expects to stick with Casas at the MLB level for now, rather than sending him to Triple-A Worcester for any kind of reset. McCaffrey notes that manager Alex Cora cited Casas’ pitch recognition as a plus, despite the rocky average. Casas’ issues haven’t been chasing pitches off the plate so much as fouling off the in-zone pitches he needs to be punishing, Cora observed.

Casas currently has a 30.5% chase rate on pitches off the plate, which clocks in just shy of the 31.5% MLB average. He’s been more passive in the zone, however, with his 62.8% swing rate on pitches over the plate checking in five percentage points south of average. He’s averaging a hearty 90.7 mph off the bat when does put the ball in play and has three homers on the year, but Casas has also fanned in more than 29% of his plate appearances.

The Sox aren’t teeming with alternatives, however, particularly with Bobby Dalbec sporting a near-40% strikeout rate in Triple-A since his demotion. Veteran Justin Turner has started six games at first base for the Sox this season, so he’d presumably be in line for more work there if the team eventually decides that a minor league breather would be best for Casas.

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Boston Red Sox Garrett Whitlock James Paxton Triston Casas

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Latest On Kenley Jansen

By Nick Deeds | April 30, 2023 at 9:17am CDT

  • The Red Sox expect to be without their closer for the next few days, as veteran Kenley Jansen noted to reporters (including Alex Speier of The Boston Globe) that he will be unavailable until at least Tuesday after pitching through back spasms in last night’s blown save against the Guardians. John Schreiber and Josh Winckowski have worked the late innings alongside Jansen in the early going this season, but with Chris Martin likely coming off the injured list today, the 36-year-old veteran may get the ninth inning while Jansen is down.
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Baltimore Orioles Boston Red Sox Notes Tampa Bay Rays Joey Ortiz Kenley Jansen Kyle Stowers Taj Bradley

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Red Sox Likely To Activate Chris Martin From 15-Day IL On Sunday

By Mark Polishuk | April 29, 2023 at 8:15pm CDT

Chris Martin looks to be on the verge of a return to the Red Sox bullpen, as manager Alex Cora told reporters (including Alex Speier of the Boston Globe) that the reliever will likely be activated from the 15-day injured list prior to Sunday’s game with the Guardians.  The corresponding move has already been made, as the Boston Globe’s Julian McWilliams reports that right-hander Kaleb Ort has been optioned to Triple-A.

The Sox retroactively placed Martin on the 15-day IL back on April 13, so he’ll return to the field in just slightly more than the minimum 15 days.  Right shoulder inflammation sidelined Martin, but an MRI revealed no structure damage, and it seems as though Martin’s discomfort subsided in relatively quick fashion.  It’s possible he might have been back exactly after 15 days, were it not for a stomach bug that delayed his appearance in a Triple-A rehab outing.  Martin finally took the hill on Friday, and assuming that he doesn’t report any setbacks prior to tomorrow’s game, the Red Sox will reinstate the veteran righty.

Martin signed a two-year, $17.5MM free agent deal with the Sox in December, after posting strong numbers with four different teams (the Rangers, Braves, Cubs, and Dodger) from 2019-22.  With a 2.57 ERA over his first seven innings with Boston, Martin looked to be continuing that trend, though he had an uncharacteristically low two strikeouts over those seven frames.

Ort has struggled to a 7.30 ERA over 12 1/3 relief innings this season, including a rough performance on April 25 that saw him allow five runs (four earned) over just one-third of an inning against the Orioles.  Inserting Martin in Ort’s place will certainly help Boston’s relief corps, and Martin’s experience in high-leverage situations will be particularly useful if there’s any uncertainty over Kenley Jansen’s health status.  Jansen battled some back stiffness during today’s game, as the closer blew his first save of the season and labored through 29 pitches during his inning of work.

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Boston Red Sox Transactions Chris Martin Kaleb Ort Kenley Jansen

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Red Sox Place Garrett Whitlock On IL With Ulnar Neuritis

By Darragh McDonald | April 28, 2023 at 2:02pm CDT

The Red Sox announced today that right-hander Garrett Whitlock has been placed on the 15-day injured list with right elbow ulnar neuritis. Fellow righty Brayan Bello was recalled to take his spot on the active roster.

The club didn’t provide any more information about Whitlock’s injury, so the severity isn’t publicly known at this time. It’s possible that they are still doing more testing, as ulnar neuritis comes with a wide range of possible outcomes. The ulnar nerve is commonly known as the “funny bone” due to the tingling sensation it causes when agitated. Neuritis is the medical term for when there is inflammation of the nerve.

It’s too early to draw conclusions but the diagnosis is nonetheless concerning. Rays left-hander Jeffrey Springs was recently diagnosed with ulnar neuritis and just a few days later was reported to require Tommy John surgery. That’s not to say that Whitlock is inevitably headed down the same path, as Blue Jays right-hander Jordan Romano was diagnosed with the same ailment in April of 2021 but was back after just 10 days.

Whitlock already had Tommy John surgery back in 2019 but said he isn’t concerned he’s headed down that path again. He told reporters, including Alex Speier of the Boston Globe, he felt some tingling recently but doesn’t think it’s at all similar to his torn UCL from years ago. He’s hasn’t had an MRI yet.

That’s surely encouraging, but Whitlock and the Red Sox will be in wait-and-see mode until it can be discovered exactly which part of the spectrum his injury is on. He’s attempting to make the transition to full-time starting this year after working primarily in relief for the past two seasons. He began the year on the injured list after being delayed in spring by last year’s hip surgery. He’s only made three starts on the year so far because of that, registering a 6.19 ERA in that small sample.

He posted a 1.96 ERA out of the bullpen in 2021 after being plucked from the Yankees in the Rule 5 draft. That instilled enough confidence in the club that they signed him to an $18.75MM extension through 2026 with two club options after that. They then tried to stretch him out last year but injuries eventually pushed him back into the bullpen.

Whitlock was scheduled to start tomorrow’s game but that will now presumably fall to Bello, who just started for the big league club on Sunday. The young prospect is seen as a future building block of the rotation but has posted a 9.82 ERA in his two starts so far this year. Both Bello and Whitlock began the year on the IL and the club briefly ran out a six-man rotation when they returned but Bello was sent down earlier this week. He’d normally have to stay down for 15 days after being optioned but an exception is made when another player goes on the IL.

It’s possible that it could be another short stay in the rotation for Bello alongside Chris Sale, Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck and Corey Kluber. Lefty James Paxton has been on the IL all year but has made four rehab starts already as he tries to get back into game shape. He’s only made six major league starts since the end of 2019, with Tommy John surgery wiping out most of his 2021. He was working his way back to the mound in 2022 when he suffered a lat strain that killed his chances. His subsequent attempt at a return this spring was set back by a hamstring injury.

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Boston Red Sox Transactions Brayan Bello Garrett Whitlock

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Red Sox Claim Justin Garza

By Steve Adams | April 28, 2023 at 1:20pm CDT

The Red Sox have claimed right-hander Justin Garza off waivers from the Angels, per an announcement from both clubs. The Red Sox had an open spot on the 40-man roster so a corresponding transaction isn’t necessary. Garza has been optioned to Triple-A Worcester.

Garza, 29, was designated for assignment a week ago when the Halos selected the contracts of Chad Wallach and Austin Warren. He didn’t pitch for the Angels at the MLB level this season but opened the year with their Triple-A club, where he tossed 8 1/3 innings with four runs allowed on six hits and four walks. Garza’s stay with the Angels organization was rather brief. The Guardians outrighted him off the 40-man roster back in November, at which point he elected free agency and signed a split Major League contract with the Angels, thus placing him on their 40-man roster.

In 2022, Garza made his big league debut with the Guardians, pitching to a 4.71 ERA with a roughly average 22.7% strikeout rate against a bleak 14.1% walk rate. Garza sits at 95 mph with his heater and has missed bats at a high level in Triple-A (29.2% strikeout rate), but command has been an issue for him even in the minors (12.2% walk rate).

The Sox rank 13th in the Majors with a 3.58 ERA from their bullpen, though it’s a decidedly top-heavy unit. Kenley Jansen, Josh Winckowski, John Schreiber and Kutter Crawford have all gotten out to excellent starts, but the rest of the group has been severely lacking. Ryan Brasier and Kaleb Ort, in particular, have been hit hard. Offseason signee Chris Martin, meanwhile, is on the injured list and Zack Kelly’s season is in jeopardy due to elbow surgery. Garza will give the Sox some depth with good life on his fastball, but for now he’ll head to Worcester and look to refine his command while awaiting an opportunity.

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Boston Red Sox Los Angeles Angels Transactions Justin Garza

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Red Sox Place Yu Chang On IL With Hamate Fracture

By Darragh McDonald | April 25, 2023 at 3:00pm CDT

The Red Sox announced that infielder Yu Chang has been placed on the 10-day injured list due to a left hamate fracture. Infielder Enmanuel Valdéz was recalled in a corresponding move. Christopher Smith of MassLive previously reported the components of the move. Chang will have surgery and should be out roughly six weeks, per Rob Bradford of WEEI.

Chang, 27, has been on quite a rollercoaster over the past year and a bit. He started out 2022 with the Guardians, the only organization he had ever played for up until that point. But he had exhausted his option years without truly establishing himself in the big leagues. He still had appeal to other clubs based on his past prospect status and defensive versatility, eventually getting opportunities from the Pirates, Rays and Red Sox, failing to hold a roster spot for very long at any stop. He finished the year with a combined .208/.289/.315 batting line and 78 wRC+ between the four clubs.

The Sox non-tendered Chang but later re-signed him to a major league deal in February to help the middle infield mix that had just lost Trevor Story to an internal brace procedure. Chang then went to represent Chinese Taipei in the World Baseball Classic and fared well, hitting .438 and earning the Most Valuable Player award for Pool A. He’s since played 17 games for the Sox, hitting three home runs but walking in just 2.1% of his plate appearances. His current batting line is .136/.174/.341, translating to a wRC+ of 30.

Though Chang was still struggling offensively, his upcoming absence will be notable for the club. He departed last night’s game with wrist pain and today’s news is not welcome. As mentioned up top, Chang will require surgery and an absence of roughly six weeks. For however long he’s out, the Sox will be further depleted in a middle infield that has taken many hits this year. As mentioned, Story has been out all year due to his procedure and it isn’t clear when he’ll be back. Adalberto Mondesí is still working his way back from last year’s torn ACL and also has little clarity on his return. Both players are on the 60-day injured list and aren’t eligible to return until late May. Valdéz will now step up to support the regular starting duo of Enrique Hernández and Christian Arroyo. Valdéz got to make a single-game debut in the majors last week when Chang was on the paternity list.

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Boston Red Sox Transactions Enmanuel Valdez Yu Chang

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Red Sox Option Brayan Bello

By Darragh McDonald | April 24, 2023 at 4:07pm CDT

The Red Sox announced that left-hander Brennan Bernardino has been recalled from Triple-A, with right-hander Brayan Bello optioned in a corresponding move.

The Sox started the season short-handed in the rotation, as all of Bello, Garrett Whitlock and James Paxton started the season on the injured list. That allowed Tanner Houck, who has worked as both a starter and a reliever in recent years, to get a rotation spot out of the gate. Bello and Whitlock returned from the IL recently, giving the club a difficult decision to make since Houck had gotten off to a decent start. Through four outings, he has struck out 25.6% of batters faced while walking 9.3% and getting ground balls on 58.9% of balls in play. Despite those strong peripherals, his 4.29 ERA is fairly average thanks to a 20% HR/FB rate.

Though that’s not exactly ace-level work, he’s still been arguably the club’s best starter this year. Chris Sale has an ERA of 8.00, Corey Kluber is at 8.50, Nick Pivetta at 4.58 and Whitlock at 6.19. Bello has only made two starts but is at 9.82. Although Houck has frequently moved from the rotation to the bullpen and back, it would have been difficult to bump him right now when he’s arguably been the club’s best starter this year. The club has been running out a six-man rotation recently but has multiple off-days coming up on the schedule, which would make it challenging to continue that. Today’s move provides a bit of clarity on the path forward, allowing Houck to hold that rotation spot for now and see if he can stretch his results over a larger sample.

As for Bello, he hasn’t got out to a great start this year, getting shut down in spring with forearm tightness and missing the beginning of the season. He returned recently but allowed eight earned runs over 7 1/3 innings in his first two starts. He’ll head down to Worcester to try to get into a groove again after the bumpy start to the campaign. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him back up in short order, as he posted a 2.34 WRA in the minors last year and was a fixture of top prospect lists before graduating last year.

Even if Bello succeeds in Worcester, there might be some crowding in the Boston rotation with Sale, Kluber, Pivetta, Whitlock and Houck having the five spots for now. In addition to that, Paxton is rehabbing in the minors, though his last outing was a disaster. He tossed 43 pitches while recording only two outs and allowed seven earned runs.

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Boston Red Sox Transactions Brayan Bello Brennan Bernardino

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Latest On The Red Sox Rotation

By Nick Deeds | April 23, 2023 at 8:10am CDT

Rotation plans for the Red Sox in the near term have come into focus recently, as manager Alex Cora told reporters (including MassLive’s Chris Cotillo) that right-hander Tanner Houck is likely to start the club’s game against the Orioles on Wednesday, though that could change if he’s needed out of the bullpen before then.

This doesn’t come as much of a surprise, as reports ahead of the activation of righty Brayan Bello from the 15-day IL last week indicated that the club could go with a six-man rotation at least through the off-day on this coming Thursday before transitioning to a five-man rotation that would likely leave Houck as the odd man out. Still, Cotillo goes on to note that the club does have other options: righty Nick Pivetta could be moved to the bullpen instead, or Bello, who was shelled for five runs in 2 2/3 innings of work in his first start coming off the IL, could be demoted to Triple-A.

Of the six members of the Red Sox rotation, Houck has actually been the best starter this season in terms of performance. In 21 innings of work, Houck has posted a solid 4.29 ERA, 11% better than league average by measure of ERA+, and a nearly matching 4.26 FIP. His strikeout (25.5%) and walk (9.3%) rates are largely in line with his career norms, as is his BABIP (.283). The most significant change from previous seasons for Houck in the early going this year is his groundball rate. Houck entered the season with a career groundball rate of 49.3%, but in his four starts this season, that figure has jumped all the way up to 58.9%, good for sixth in the majors among players with at least 20 IP.

While Houck’s start this season is encouraging, Cotillo notes that his success in a multi-inning relief role last year, when he posted a 2.70 ERA in 43 1/3 innings out of the bullpen, makes him a natural choice for the move. Meanwhile, Smith notes that Pivetta has resisted suggestions he could be ticketed for the bullpen after some early season struggles. Pivetta has yet to finish the sixth inning this season in a start and has posted a 4.58 ERA over 19 2/3 innings this season in spite of a deflated .275 BABIP that helps to explain his more worrisome 5.19 FIP.

Even in the event that Houck is ultimately sent to the bullpen, Boston brass will have to make another tough decision when lefty James Paxton returns from the IL, which he could do fairly soon. Paxton, Cotillo notes, has never appeared out of the bullpen in his career and struggled badly out of the bullpen in a rehab stint this season, allowing seven runs in less than an inning of work. With Paxton an unlikely bullpen candidate, the Red Sox are likely to once again be left to decide between a six-man rotation and bumping either Pivetta or Bello from the group when the veteran lefty is ready to be activated.

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