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Red Sox, Jorge Alfaro Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Red Sox are in agreement with free agent backstop Jorge Alfaro on a minor league contract, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive (Twitter link). He’ll receive a $2MM base salary if he cracks the MLB roster and would have the ability to opt out and return to free agency on both June 1 and July 1 if he hasn’t yet been called up.

Alfaro, 29, has played in each of the last seven big league campaigns. A top prospect in the Rangers’ and Phillies’ farm systems, he went from Texas to Philadelphia in the Cole Hamels deadline blockbuster in 2015. Alfaro debuted with Philadelphia in 2016 and would spend parts of the following two seasons as their primary catcher. He flashed the massive power and arm strength that had made him such a highly-regarded minor league talent but struck out in 35.2% of his plate appearances as a Phillie.

After the 2018 season, Philadelphia packaged him with Sixto Sánchez to the division-rival Marlins for J.T. Realmuto. Miami had hoped Alfaro would step in as a big league ready replacement for their outgoing star catcher. Alfaro was their primary catcher for the next three seasons but continued to perform at an inconsistent level, largely thanks to his strikeout issues.

The Padres took a shot on the Colombian-born player in a minor trade last offseason. Alfaro cracked the Opening Day roster after a massive Spring Training and went on to appear in just over half the team’s games. He tallied 274 plate appearances, hitting .246/.285/.383 with seven home runs and a 35.8% strikeout percentage. At season’s end, San Diego non-tendered him rather than retain him for a projected $3.6MM arbitration salary.

In a little under 500 MLB games, Alfaro is a .256/.305/.396 hitter. He’s picked up 47 homers and made plenty of hard contact. His on-base numbers have been muted by his subpar strikeout and walk profile, though, as he’s drawn free passes 4.2% of the time while fanning in over 34% of his trips. It’s been a somewhat similar boom or bust profile defensively. Alfaro has a top-tier throwing arm and has cut down a solid 27.5% of attempted basestealers throughout his career. Yet he’s also rated as a below-average pitch framer and overall receiver, per the metrics at Statcast and Baseball Prospectus.

While Alfaro’s overall body of work has been up and down, he represents a low-risk upside play for a Boston club that has an uncertain catching mix. Reese McGuire and Connor Wong currently look set for a loose platoon arrangement behind the dish. They’re the only backstops on the Red Sox’s 40-man roster, and neither has an extended track record as an MLB regular. Alfaro’s an experienced depth option who can battle for a job in Spring Training and/or start the season at Triple-A Worcester as injury insurance.

Alfaro has over five years of major league service time, meaning he can’t be optioned to the minor leagues. If he cracks the MLB roster at any point, Boston will either have to keep him in the majors or make him available to other clubs via trade or waivers. If Alfaro spends 89 days on the MLB active roster or injured list next season, he’d surpass the six-year service threshold and qualify for free agency next offseason. If he’s on the roster for 88 days or fewer overall but on the 40-man at season’s end, he’d be eligible for arbitration for the 2024 campaign.

Red Sox Interested In Jurickson Profar, Elvis Andrus

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The Red Sox were known to be looking for middle infield help even before news broke earlier this week about Trevor Story’s internal brace surgery on his right elbow, which could keep the shortstop on the injured list for most (or potentially all) of the 2023 season.  In the wake of Story’s surgery, two names have surfaced on Boston’s radar, as USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes that the Sox have interest in both Jurickson Profar and Elvis Andrus.

In terms of being a replacement for Story at shortstop, Andrus is the cleaner fit, as the veteran could simply step right into a regular shortstop role.  Apart from 25 games as a DH, Andrus has exclusively played shortstop in the other 1914 games of his 14-year Major League career.  Public defensive metrics are a little mixed on Andrus’ glovework (+4.7 UZR/150 and +3 Outs Above Average in 2022, countered by a -4 Defensive Runs Saved score), but all in all, Andrus still looks like he can provide at least acceptable defense even at age 34.

At the plate, Andrus has been inconsistent at best over his career, but he did enjoy a lot of success in a late-season cameo with the White Sox in 2022.  Released by the A’s in August, Chicago signed Andrus as a replacement for the injured Tim Anderson, and Andrus responded with a very solid .271/.309/.464 slash line and nine home runs over 191 plate appearances with the Pale Hose.  His overall 105 wRC+ for the season and his 3.5 fWAR were Andrus’ highest totals in either category since 2017, and his 17 homers was the second-highest total of his career.

Despite this nice performance, there hasn’t been much buzz about Andrus on the open market this winter, as teams are perhaps more focused on Andrus’ age, his ability to replicate his 2022 numbers, and his more unspectacular recent track record before last season — Andrus accumulated a modest 4.3 fWAR combined from 2018-21.  Still, there was some speculation that Andrus’ market wouldn’t really pick up until the “big four” free agent shortstops (Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Correa, Dansby Swanson) were off the board, and teams still in need of shortstop help could turn to Andrus as more of a stop-gap option.

The Red Sox technically fit this description given their loss of Bogaerts, and Boston had shown at least some level of interest in such infield trade targets as Amed Rosario, Paul DeJong, Joey Wendle, and (before he was dealt from the Marlins to the Dodgers) Miguel Rojas.  All of these players would’ve been eyed for the shortstop job, as the Sox could’ve then stuck to their initial plan of using Enrique Hernandez mostly in center field, or at least as a player who could be bounced around the diamond rather than someone primarily locked into a shortstop role.

Profar’s addition would create some lineup shuffling, and likely result in Hernandez getting more time at short.  Profar hasn’t played shortstop since 2018, and while he was once a multi-position type, 2022 marked the first time that Profar played exclusively at one position, as the Padres deployed him only as a left fielder.  The newly-signed Masataka Yoshida has already been tabbed for left field duty in Fenway Park, so the Red Sox could move Profar (who turns 30 in February) around to the other outfield positions, or possibly second or first base.

MLBTR projected Profar for a two-year, $20MM deal this winter, and the Yankees and Astros have both shown some interest in his services at various times this winter.  Two weeks ago, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco broke down Profar’s potential market and some teams that might emerge as fits, though the Red Sox weren’t cited due to the assumption that Yoshida had filled the outfield need.  Of course, injuries can instantly bring new teams into the mix, and Profar’s market could further expand if teams do see him as a candidate for positions beyond only left field.

Boras: Blue Jays, Cubs, Twins “Were Really After” Xander Bogaerts

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Xander Bogaerts’ first visit to free agency resulted in an 11-year, $280MM deal with the Padres that greatly exceeded projections, even for a player who was expected to land one of the offseason’s biggest contracts.  Agent Scott Boras discussed some of the twists and turns of Bogaerts’ free agent trip with USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, and Boras identified that Bogaerts was San Diego’s second choice, once Trea Turner rejected a reported $342MM offer from the Padres.

Once Turner turned down the Padres’ offer to sign with the Phillies, “we kind of knew the Padres’ guy was Bogaerts,” Boras said.  “They wanted that personality, that leadership in that locker room.”  Left unspoken by Boras was the fact that the Padres were clearly itching to land a big target of some kind, even to the point of considering a $400MM bid for Aaron Judge.  With Judge and Turner off the board, the Padres may have been more willing to go above and beyond to sign Bogaerts, and ensure that their offseason endeavors would include at least one superstar name.

The Red Sox reportedly made a last-ditch effort to sign Bogaerts in the hours preceding his deal with San Diego, though Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom later downplayed the chances that a reunion between Bogaerts and the Red Sox was becoming a possibility.  There were mixed signals from Boston’s ownership and front office all season long about the franchise’s willingness to retain Bogaerts, and from Boras’ perspective, the Red Sox weren’t ever a major bidder.

“It was just really clear to us there was a separation where Boston was going to go for Bogaerts, compared to where the market was,” Boras said.  “They probably made a decision they were going to sign [Rafael] Devers, and were going to pay only one of them.  So we knew at the forefront that Bogey would be somewhere besides Boston.”

Sure enough, the Red Sox indeed ended up extending Devers, while Bogaerts landed in San Diego.  As for other teams in the hunt, such teams as the Phillies, Diamondbacks, Orioles, Mariners, Dodgers, and Giants were all linked to Bogaerts at various points in the offseason, even if some of these pursuits were perhaps more cursory than others.  Boras implied that three teams in particular (beyond the Padres) separated themselves from the pack, saying that “Minnesota, the Cubs, the Blue Jays, they were really after” Bogaerts’ services.

The Cubs and Twins were already known to be Bogaerts’ suitors, and as both clubs were monitoring the high-end shortstop market and eventually came away with two of the winter’s top options at the position — Chicago signed Dansby Swanson, while Minnesota (eventually) reunited with Carlos Correa.  The Twins’ interest in Bogaerts was framed as a backup plan if Correa signed elsewhere, though Bogaerts ended up signing with the Padres before Correa agreed to his initial deal with the Giants.  As for the Cubs, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand wrote that the team gave some consideration to the idea of signing both Bogaerts and Swanson, with Bogaerts playing third base in that blockbuster scenario.

It makes for some fascinating “what-if” material, since neither the Twins or the Cubs were previously considered top candidates to sign Bogaerts.  However, the Blue Jays’ involvement is perhaps the most interesting, as Toronto hadn’t previously been linked to Bogaerts or any of the top shortstops whatsoever.  While the aggressive Jays are known to be a team that routinely checks in on most free agents as a matter of due diligence, Toronto’s focus was known to be on the club’s greater needs in the outfield and in the rotation.  Such names as Justin Verlander, Brandon Nimmo, and Kodai Senga were among the many players linked to the Blue Jays, and Toronto has thus far signed Chris Bassitt, Kevin Kiermaier, and Brandon Belt, while Daulton Varsho and Erik Swanson were respectively acquired in major trades with the Diamondbacks and Mariners that saw Gabriel Moreno, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and Teoscar Hernandez change uniforms.

These moves have sent the Jays’ payroll to franchise-record heights, and set the team up to exceed the luxury tax threshold for the first time.  So in that sense, making a splash to sign Bogaerts wouldn’t have been out of line with the Blue Jays’ spending habits, even if obviously landing Bogaerts would have entirely changed the scope of Toronto’s offseason.

First and foremost, the Blue Jays already have a star shortstop in Bo Bichette, who is only entering his age-25 season and already amassed two top-12 finishes in AL MVP voting, an All-Star nod, and 9.6 fWAR in 2021-22.  (For comparison, Bogaerts had 10.4 fWAR in 2021-22.)  Bichette’s success at the plate, however, was tempered by a rather drastic defensive decline in 2022, as public metrics placed Bichette among the league’s worst defensive players.  Ironically, Bogaerts’ glovework had long been a source of controversy, but he quelled some doubts over his viability as a shortstop by delivering the best defensive season of his career in 2022.

Had the Jays signed Bogaerts, they could’ve installed him at shortstop and moved Bichette to second base, and then used the current collection of second-base options (i.e. Santiago Espinal, Cavan Biggio, Whit Merrifield) either purely as depth options or as trade chips.  Since Matt Chapman is a free agent after the 2023 season, the Blue Jays might’ve considered moving Bogaerts to third base at that point and returning Bichette to shortstop, if Chapman wasn’t retained.  Or, if signing Bogaerts would’ve taken up much or all of Toronto’s payroll space, the Blue Jays might have been considered trading Bichette in order to address other needs.  If the Jays hadn’t had the money to sign a Bassitt-level starter, for instance, Bichette could have been shopped to land a front-of-the-rotation arm.

Red Sox, Sterling Sharp Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Red Sox have re-signed righty Sterling Sharp to a minor league contract, according to Chris Hilburn-Trenkle of Baseball America. The 27-year-old had spent the tail end of the 2022 campaign in the Boston organization as well.

Sharp, a 22nd-round draftee of the Nationals in 2016, got to the big leagues in 2020 as a Rule 5 pick of the Marlins. He made four appearances out of the Miami bullpen, allowing seven runs through 5 1/3 innings. The Marlins designated him for assignment before season’s end, relinquishing his Rule 5 rights in the process. After clearing waivers, he was returned to the Nationals without occupying a spot on the 40-man roster.

The Michigan native remained in the Washington farm system through the middle of last year. He had a tough go with Triple-A Rochester, pitching to a 6.62 ERA across 66 2/3 innings. The Nats released him in August but he quickly caught on with Boston. The Sox sent him to Double-A Portland, where he closed out the season well. Through seven starts with the Sea Dogs, he pitched to a 3.18 ERA with a decent 22% strikeout percentage and 45.3% grounder rate.

That earned Sharp another look in the Boston organization, as he returns after a brief first trip to minor league free agency. He’ll serve as rotation depth in the upper minors and could get a look with Triple-A Worcester after his solid finish in Double-A. Sharp still has a full slate of option years remaining, meaning the Sox could move him between Boston and the upper minors for the foreseeable future if he earns a spot on the 40-man roster.

Red Sox, Josh Taylor Avoid Arbitration

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The Red Sox and left-hander Josh Taylor are in agreement on a contract for 2023, reports Robert Murray of FanSided. Taylor will earn a salary of $1.025MM in the upcoming campaign.

It’s been a rollercoaster for Taylor over the past few seasons. He made his MLB debut in 2019 and made 52 appearances with a solid 3.04 ERA. However, he went to the injured list multiple times in 2020 and was only able to get into eight games, posting a 9.82 ERA in those. He was able to get back on track in 2021 by getting into 61 games with a 3.40 ERA, 28.7% strikeout rate, 11% walk rate and 43.4% ground ball rate.

He reached arbitration for the first time as a Super Two player and agreed to a salary of $1.025MM for 2022. Unfortunately, a low back strain kept him on the injured list for the entire season. Since the arbitration system is designed so that salaries effectively never go down, Taylor and club have agreed at the exact same price point for the upcoming campaign.

Taylor will look to get back to health and back on track in 2023, before going through the arbitration process two more times, slated to reach free agency after 2025. Despite the modest price point, he might be a key member of the club, as he and Joely Rodriguez are the only southpaws that currently seem likely to be in the Boston bullpen.

Red Sox Designate Connor Seabold For Assignment

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The Red Sox have designated right-hander Connor Seabold for assignment in order to open a spot on the 40-man roster for right-hander Corey Kluber, per a team announcement.

Seabold’s DFA registers as something of a surprise, as the 26-year-old (27 later this month) is generally regarded as one of the better pitchers in Boston’s system. While he’s certainly older than most “prospects” at this juncture, each of Baseball America (No. 23), MLB.com (No. 21) and FanGraphs (No. 7) ranked Seabold favorably within the Red Sox’ farm as recently as midway through the 2022 season.

Granted, Seabold has been rocked for 25 runs in just 21 1/3 big league innings to this point in his career. However, the right-hander also turned in a strong 3.32 ERA with a 24.7% strikeout rate and an excellent 5.3% walk rate in 86 2/3 innings of Triple-A ball in 2022. That marked the second straight Triple-A season in which he’s pitched to an ERA in the mid-3.00s with average or better strikeout and walk rates.

Seabold, however, has battled injuries throughout his career — including some elbow troubles in 2021 and a forearm strain in 2022. Those recent arm troubles surely played into this decision, even if Seabold finished out the 2022 season in what appeared to be good health. Durability has been a concern that’s been cited on multiple scouting reports for the 6’2″, 190-pound righty. The fact that he’s tossed just 364 innings, between the big leagues and the minors combined, since being drafted in 2017 speaks to those concerns. Even accounting for a half season in his draft year and he lack of minor league games in 2020, that’s a fairly light innings total for a pitcher who’s worked as a starter over the course of four full professional seasons.

Durability concerns notwithstanding, Seabold is a more or less MLB-ready arm with a solid track record in Double-A/Triple-A and with one more minor league option year remaining. That seems likely to generate interest from another club, be it via a trade or waiver claim. The Red Sox will have a week to trade Seabold, pass him through outright waivers or release him.

Red Sox, Greg Allen Agree To Minor League Contract

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7:15pm: Allen would receive a $1.4MM base salary if he makes the major league roster, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive (on Twitter).

6:43pm: The Red Sox and outfielder Greg Allen have agreed to a minor league deal, reports Kiley McDaniel of ESPN (Twitter link). He’ll be in big league camp as a non-roster invitee.

Allen, 30 in March, has appeared in the big leagues in each of the past six seasons. Initially a Cleveland draftee, he spent the 2017-19 campaigns there as a depth outfielder before being dealt to the Padres in the 2020 trade that sent Mike Clevinger to San Diego for a six-player package including Cal Quantrill, Austin Hedges and Josh Naylor. Allen would only appear in one game with the Padres and was designated for assignment the following offseason.

Traded to the Yankees, he spent most of the year in Triple-A after going unclaimed on waivers. The switch-hitter had a big season at the top minor league level to earn a brief MLB look, in which he hit .270/.417/.432 in 15 games. That was enough for the Pirates to take a flier when he hit waivers last offseason and the Bucs gave him his most extended major league run in three years.

Allen couldn’t maintain his 2021 form over a larger sample, hitting .186/.260/.271 with a lofty 31.3% strikeout percentage through 134 trips to the plate. Pittsburgh ran the former 6th-round draftee through waivers late last season. He cleared and elected minor league free agency at year’s end.

In exactly 800 MLB plate appearances, Allen is a .232/.299/.336 hitter. He’s hit 10 home runs with a below-average 5.6% walk rate. The speedster has been very effective on the basepaths, though, swiping 45 bases in 53 career attempts. That’s an excellent 85% success rate, including an 8-10 showing in 46 games with the Bucs last year.

Allen’s speed gives him the ability to cover all three outfield positions. Advanced metrics have been mixed on his work in center field. Defensive Runs Saved has pegged him 12 runs below average in a little less than 1000 innings at the outfield’s most demanding spot. Statcast, on the other hand, has rated him three runs above par in center. He’s drawn unanimously strong marks in the corners, particularly in left field.

Boston doesn’t have much upper level outfield depth, with Allen presumably battling Jarren Duran and potentially a future acquisition or two for a depth role behind Masataka Yoshida, Alex Verdugo and Enrique Hernández (who could also be thrust into a heavier infield workload thanks to the Trevor Story injury). Allen is out of minor league option years, meaning he’d have to stick on the active roster or be offered to other teams if he earns an MLB promotion at any point.

Red Sox Notes: Middle Infield, Rotation

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The Red Sox were dealt a brutal blow this week with the news that infielder Trevor Story, who’d been preparing for a move from second base to shortstop in the wake of Xander Bogaerts’ free-agent departure, required an internal brace procedure to repair the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow. Story felt discomfort late last month when ramping up his throwing program, and subsequent testing revealed enough damage that surgery was required.

Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom met with reporters following the announcement yesterday, ominously declining to put a timeline on the injury while noting that a return in 2023, while not something that can be ruled out, is “not something, at this stage, that we want to bank on” (link via Julian McWilliams and Alex Speier of the Boston Globe). The prospect of losing Story for the entire 2023 season only further serves to create urgency for the Red Sox to strengthen their up-the-middle core.

Bloom acknowledged that even before Story’s injury, he’d been in the market for at least one up-the-middle player. The versatility afforded by both Story (who can play either middle infield position) and Enrique Hernandez (who can play second base and center field) left Bloom free to explore a variety of options. Now, likely needing a pair of external additions, it’d seem likely the Sox can cast an even wider net. Bloom, in fact, suggested that the search for up-the-middle additions “doesn’t even need to be limited to two” players, Speier tweets.

The center field market has been thin all offseason, which at least on paper would make a pair of infield additions an easier course to chart. The Athletic’s Jen McCaffrey points out that Bloom implied that the preference may be for right-handed bats, given the glut of lefties already on the roster (e.g. Rafael Devers, Masataka Yoshida, Alex Verdugo, Triston Casas, Reese McGuire). That said, the free-agent market has already been largely picked over, so Boston won’t necessarily be able to be as selective as the front office might prefer.

There are still some right-handed-hitting middle infield options available in free agency, with Elvis Andrus, Josh Harrison, Donovan Solano and Jose Iglesias topping the list. On the trade front both Miami’s Miguel Rojas and Colorado’s Brendan Rodgers have at least been mentioned on the rumor circuit this offseason, though Rodgers only in connection with the Marlins’ bevy of MLB-ready young pitching.

Things are more sparse in center field, where the options are generally limited to veterans who could be available on minor league deals (e.g. Kevin Pillar, old friend Jackie Bradley Jr.). Bryan Reynolds, of course, headlines a thin trade market for outfielders. It should be further noted that the Sox aren’t likely to exclusively focus on righty bats, any such preferences notwithstanding. They’ve previously been linked to Marlins infielder Joey Wendle, for instance, and given the diminished state of the trade and free-agent markets, an openness to adding at least one other lefty bat gives them more flexibility.

Middle infield and center field aren’t the lone areas of focus for the Sox, either, as Bloom voiced a continued desire to acquire “impact” starting pitching — particularly arms who can be controlled for several years (Twitter link via Speier). That’s sensible, given that the current rotation — Chris Sale, James Paxton, Nick Pivetta, Corey Kluber and Garrett Whitlock — is teeming with uncertainty, even with a touted arm like Brayan Bello waiting in the wings.

The slate of middle-infield and controllable pitching needs does make the Marlins a natural fit in trade talks, though all indications have been that the Sox are reluctant to part with top prospects like Casas, Bello and Marcelo Mayer. That doesn’t close the door on a trade entirely, of course, but it certainly complicates matters. Other speculative trade partners with ample infield and/or rotation depth include the Brewers, Royals and Guardians.

Whatever path the Red Sox explore, they’re in a difficult situation. Needing a pair of up-the-middle position players at this stage of the offseason, with a thin set of options in both free agency and trade, is challenging enough. But the organization’s best trade chips are young, near-MLB-ready talents they’d prefer not to move, and payroll projections from Roster Resource put them only about $22MM shy of reaching the luxury threshold for a second straight season. Add in an ongoing search for controllable rotation help, and it’ll be challenging, to say the least, for the Sox to check all of their preferred boxes (controllable starter, multiple infield/center field options, hang onto top prospects, avoid repeat offense of luxury tax). Even if they’re able to do so, it’ll be a tough battle for them in a competitive AL East.

Orioles Acquire Darwinzon Hernandez, Designate Lewin Diaz

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The Orioles announced Wednesday that they’ve acquired lefty Darwinzon Hernandez from the Red Sox in exchange for cash. First baseman Lewin Diaz was designated for assignment yet again in order to create a spot on the 40-man roster.

The 26-year-old Hernandez will give the O’s an arm capable of missing bats at an elite level, but he’s also been plagued by jarring command issues throughout his career. Hernandez has punched out a hefty 32.3% of his opponents in 85 1/3 Major league innings, but that’s accompanied by a disastrous 17.7% walk rate. He still managed a sharp-looking 3.17 ERA in 2020-21, but opponents shelled him for 16 runs in only 6 2/3 innings this past season, bringing his career ERA to an unsightly 5.06. Hernandez has a pair of minor league options remaining and averages better than 95 mph on his heater, however, so the Orioles will hope they can tame some of those command woes and unearth a quality bullpen arm.

For Diaz, this is incredibly his fifth DFA of the offseason. He first went from the Marlins to the Pirates by way of waivers, and the Orioles claimed him (for the first time) from the Buccos shortly thereafter. Baltimore traded Diaz to Atlanta, who designated him for assignment five days later. The O’s claimed him again on Jan. 5, but his latest stint on the Orioles’ 40-man roster will apparently last just five days.

It’s a dizzying whirlwind of transactions that have surely made for a chaotic and unsettling winter for Diaz — a 26-year-old former top prospect who’s yet to have much big league experience at the plate but is regarded as one of the sport’s best defensive first basemen. Diaz is just a .181/.227/.340 hitter in 343 trips to the plate as a big leaguer, but he’s .250/.325/.504 hitter in parts of two Triple-A seasons.

The Orioles have spent the winter trying to add some lefty-swinging depth at first base, hence their two claims of Diaz and their trade for former Royals slugger Ryan O’Hearn, whom they almost immediately designated for assignment. The goal, surely, is to be able to successfully pass players like Diaz and O’Hearn through waivers and retain them as non-roster depth options in the upper minors.

To this point, however, no team has succeeded in getting Diaz through waivers. The allure of his glove and decent power production in the upper minors has continually piqued the interest of other clubs around the league. The Orioles hold the No. 17 waiver priority in the game (determined by last year’s standings), and Diaz has yet to make it past them on the waiver wire (he landed with Atlanta by way of trade, not waiver claim). Time will tell whether the O’s can finally succeed this time around, but it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if Diaz again landed with another club via waivers or a small trade. His DFA will be resolved within a week’s time.

Red Sox Extend Rafael Devers

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Jan. 11: The Red Sox have formally announced the contract as a 10-year extension with Devers, spanning the 2024-33 seasons. As reported last night, that keeps his 2023 luxury tax hit at $17.5MM (the sum of the one-year deal he agreed to in order to avoid arbitration), while the $31.35MM luxury hit on his extension will go into effect in 2024.

Jan. 4: The Red Sox and third baseman Rafael Devers are in agreement on an extension that will keep him in Boston through the 2033 season. Though many outlets reported this as an 11-year extension worth $331MM, Devers and the Sox had already agreed to a $17.5MM salary for 2023. In terms of new money, then, he’s agreed to a ten-year, $313.5MM extension. There are no opt-outs in the deal and he won’t have a no-trade clause. The deal is pending a physical and is not yet official. Devers is represented by Rep 1 Baseball.

Devers, 26, was set to enter his final year of club control. He was slated to reach free agency after the upcoming campaign but will now stay in Boston for an extra decade, with this agreement set to take him through the 2033 campaign and his age-36 season. It’s easily the largest deal in franchise history, which was previously held by the $217MM deal for David Price. It will also be the 10th-largest guarantee in MLB history, while the $31.35MM average annual value will get him into the top 20 all-time.

Devers will now stick with the only organization he’s ever known and could well spend his entire career in Boston. The Sox signed him out of the Dominican Republic as a 16-year-old in August of 2013, giving him a $1.5MM bonus. He worked his way through the minors and was seen by many as one of the top prospects in the sport. Baseball America ranked him in the top 20 on their top 100 list in both 2016 and 2017. In that latter season, Devers cracked the majors and debuted while just 20 years old. Despite that young age, he hit 10 home runs in just 58 games and produced a batting line of .284/.338/.482. That led to a wRC+ of 110, indicating he was 10% better than the league average hitter.

Devers endured a bit of a sophomore slump in 2018 but has put that behind him in a big way. Over the last four years, he’s hit 108 home runs and produced an overall batting line of .292/.352/.532. That production has been 32% better than league average by measure of wRC+, placing him among the top 25 hitters in the league for that time period.

For the Red Sox, it’s been a bit of a rollercoaster time for the franchise over the past few years. They hoisted the World Series trophy in 2018 but then saw star right fielder Mookie Betts traded to the Dodgers alongside Price. Though the Sox got some interesting players in return, it was widely-viewed as a financially-motivated decision, a bitter pill for fans to swallow after a strong run of success that saw them win four titles from 2004 to 2018. The club slid to last place in the American League East in the shortened 2020 campaign.

Though 2021 saw the club surprise many onlookers by returning to the postseason, they had another disappointing campaign in 2022, finishing last in the division for the second time in three years. This offseason, another star player departed when shortstop Xander Bogaerts opted out of his contract. Though the Sox maintained that retaining Bogaerts was a top priority, he instead signed with the Padres for $280MM over 11 years while Boston came up well short, reportedly in the $160MM range.

With Betts and Bogaerts both leaving for California, the focus turned to Devers. With just one year until free agency, many wondered if the Fenway Faithful would have to endure a third superstar departure in a four-year span, or perhaps a three-year span if the club considered a trade. The reporting on the matter seemed dire as recently as a couple of months ago, indicating that the sides were not close in their extension talks with Boston offering something in the vicinity of $212MM. Instead, they have stepped up in a big way to ensure that Devers is the face of the franchise for years to come. In the long run, it’s possible that Devers may have to move from third base to first base, since his defense isn’t as highly regarded as his bat. But those will be conversations for later days, with another 11 years for the club to figure out how to set the lineup.

In the short term, this won’t change the makeup of the Red Sox on the field, since Devers was already going to be a part of the 2023 club. But it could have an impact on the financial ledger. Devers was previously set to have a $17.5MM count towards Boston’s luxury tax but that number will now jump to $30.09MM. The specific breakdown of the Devers deal isn’t known, but the competitive balance tax is calculated based on the average annual value of the deal, so the breakdown won’t change the CBT calculations. With that new figure in place, the club’s total CBT tally is now $224MM, according to the calculations at Roster Resource. That puts them within striking distance of the lowest luxury tax threshold, which will be $233MM this year. Any further additions, whether this offseason or as the season itself progresses, could potentially push them over the line. Since they paid the tax in 2022, they would be considered a second-time payor in 2023.

Former player Carlos Baerga first reported that the sides were in agreement on Instagram, but had the terms as 11 years and $332MM. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic first reported the $331MM figure and added the $20MM signing bonus. Jeff Passan of ESPN clarified that the deal included 2023 and would only add ten years beyond that. Jon Heyman of The New York Post first added the absence of a no-trade clause and Alex Speier of the Boston Globe first had the lack of opt-outs.

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