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2021 Arbitration Hearing Results & Post-Deadline Agreements

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January 15 was the deadline for teams and arbitration-eligible players to officially submit salary figures for the 2021, and by the time the day was done, only 13 players didn’t reach agreement on a contract.  The majority of teams now adhere to the “file or trial” strategy, meaning that no further negotiations on a one-year deal will take place between the arbitration deadline and a hearing with an arbiter, which theoretically puts pressure on players to get a deal done if they are wary about taking their case to a third party.

“File and trial” tactics didn’t stop the Astros and Carlos Correa from agreeing to a one-year deal for just the 2021 season, which is also Correa’s last year before gaining free agent eligibility.  We also saw three multi-year deals reached, all from the greater Los Angeles area — the Dodgers reached two-year deals with Walker Buehler and Austin Barnes, while the Angels inked a two-year pact with Shohei Ohtani.

This left nine unresolved cases that went all the way to a hearing (held over Zoom) between an arbiter, the player, his representative(s), and front office personnel arguing the team’s side.  The teams won five of the nine hearings, continuing the very narrow edge teams have held over players in arb cases in recent years — over the last 99 arbitration hearings, teams hold a 51-48 record over players.

For the full list of every salary for every arbitration-eligible player this offseason, check out the MLB Trade Rumors Arb Tracker.  Sticking to the 13 players with unresolved cases from January 15, here’s the rundown…

Avoided Arbitration, One-Year Contract

Avoided Arbitration, Multi-Year Contract

Arbitration Hearings, Won By Player

Arbitration Hearings, Won By Team

Orioles Notes: Sánchez, Jones, Zimmermann, Valdez

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The Orioles will have a pair of fresh faces up the middle this season with free agent additions Freddy Galvis and Yolmer Sánchez. Sánchez is a Gold Glove winner at second, but he’ll be pushed for playing time by the newly-acquired Jahmai Jones. Jones will work out in the outfield as well, but the Orioles view him as a second baseman, per Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. It was a bit surprising to see the Orioles net the former second round pick in exchange for Alex Cobb, as the former Angels farmhand was the top prospect in LA’s system as recently as 2017, per Baseball America. He was the 89th ranked prospect in all of baseball before the 2018 season.

On the pitching side, Baltimore made positive strides in 2020, finishing in the upper half of the league by fWAR and around the middle of the pack by measure of ERA (16th) and xFIP (18th). The struggle to allot rotation minutes remains a focal point, however. Bruce Zimmermann, for instance, hopes to make the rotation after seven debut innings in 2020. If Zimmerman doesn’t make the rotation, he could wind up in the pen as a bulk innings relievers, tweets Kubatko.

The same goes for César Valdez, notes Kukatko. Manager Brandon Hyde suggested that Valdez would be used in a number of different roles, but they will work to stretch him out in the spring in preparation for multi-inning stints and potentially turns in the rotation. The 35-year-old Valdez made nine appearances for the O’s in 2020 with a 1.26 ERA/2.14 FIP across 14 1/3 innings. It was Valdez’s first appearance in the bigs since 2017 and only his third stint since initially debuting with the Diamondbacks in 2010.

Orioles To Sign Matt Harvey To Minors Deal

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12:07PM: Harvey will earn $1MM if he makes the Orioles’ active roster, Jon Meoli of The Baltimore Sun writes.

10:32AM: The Orioles have agreed to a minor league deal with right-hander Matt Harvey, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (via Twitter).

Baltimore was known to be looking for veteran pitching depth, and the O’s already brought in another prominent name in Felix Hernandez earlier this month on another minors contract.  King Felix will now be joined by the Dark Knight in competition for a spot in the Orioles’ rotation.

Whether Harvey sticks as a starting pitcher or perhaps is shifted to the bullpen is a question to be determined.  Since undergoing thoracic outlet syndrome surgery in 2016, Harvey has an ungainly 6.09 ERA over 319 Major League innings with the Mets, Reds, Angels, and Royals.  After inking a minor league deal with Kansas City last year, Harvey posted an 11.57 ERA over 11 2/3 innings for the Royals, allowing six home runs in that brief stint.

Three of Harvey’s seven appearances with K.C. came as a reliever, which marked his first bullpen work since the Mets removed him from the rotation after struggling early in the 2018 season.  If he can’t crack Baltimore’s pitching staff, it seems likely that Harvey would embrace a full-on conversion to relief pitching as a way of potentially sticking on a big league roster and getting his career back on track.

The seventh overall pick of the 2010 draft, Harvey immediately burst onto the scene with excellent numbers in 2012-13, and finished fourth in NL Cy Young Award voting in 2013 (his new teammate Hernandez, incidentally, finished eighth in the AL Cy Young race that same season).  After missing the 2014 season due to Tommy John surgery, Harvey rebounded with another strong year to help lead the Mets to the NL pennant in 2015.  Unfortunately, mounting injuries and off-the-field issues clouded Harvey’s remaining years in the Big Apple before he was dealt to the Reds in May 2018.

Arbitration Hearing Decisions: J.D. Davis, Choi, Santander

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This year’s round of (virtual) arbitration hearings kicked off earlier this week. While a perhaps surprising number of players agreed to one-year deals to avoid arbitration last month rather than risk a hearing, we’ll still have a handful of cases heard by a three-person panel of arbitrators over the next couple of weeks. Some results from the first wave of hearings…

  • Mets third baseman/outfielder J.D. Davis lost his arbitration hearing and will earn $2.1MM in 2021 rather than the $2.475MM at which he filed, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter link). The 27-year-old has proven to be a good find for the now-former front office regime, hitting .288/.370/.483 with 28 homers and 31 doubles through 682 plate appearances since debuting with the Mets. Davis figures to see action at third base and perhaps in left field again in 2021, and he’ll be eligible for arbitration three more times due to his status as a Super Two player.
  • Rays first baseman Ji-Man Choi won an arbitration hearing against the club and will be paid $2.45MM in 2021, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (via Twitter). The team had filed for a $1.85MM salary. Choi, 29, has spent the past three seasons with the Rays, batting a combined .257/.359/.461 with 30 homers, 45 doubles and three triples in 821 trips to the plate. He slashed .230/.331/.410 in 42 games last year and is controllable through 2023. Choi was one of two outstanding arbitration cases for the Rays — the other being left-hander Ryan Yarbrough, whose trial has not yet taken place.
  • The Orioles won their arbitration hearing over outfielder Anthony Santander, tweets Feinsand. Santander, like Davis, filed at $2.475MM with his club countering at $2.1MM. He’ll earn the lesser of those two sums. The 26-year-old is a former Rule 5 pick who had a solid showing in 2019 before breaking out with a huge performance in 2020. This past season, Santander batted .261/.315/.575 with 11 homers and 13 doubles in just 165 plate appearances. On the whole, he’s given the O’s a .261/.302/.505 slash with 31 homers and 33 doubles in his past 570 plate appearances. There are some obvious OBP question marks, but the power has prompted teams to look at Santander as a possible trade option. He’s also a Super Two player and is controlled through 2024.

Orioles Sign Felix Hernandez To Minor League Deal

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The Orioles are signing right-hander Felix Hernandez to a minor league contract, Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets. Hernandez will earn a $1MM salary if he gets to the majors.

Hernandez is now the most accomplished of the Orioles’ pitchers, having earned six All-Star nods and won an American League Cy Young with the Mariners from 2005-19. However, King Felix’s production waned during his last few years as a Mariner, leading the team to cut ties with him.

Hernandez signed a minors pact with the Braves going into the 2020 campaign, and he looked like a realistic rotation candidate for the club, but he wound up opting out because of the COVID-19 pandemic. But Hernandez could now stand an even better chance to grab a spot in the Orioles’ starting staff. The O’s “ace” is John Means, who put up a 4.53 ERA a season ago.

Angels Acquire Alex Cobb

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FEB. 2: Both teams have announced the trade. The Angels will pay $5MM of Cobb’s $15MM, and some of that includes deferrals, Connolly tweets.

FEB. 1, 12:42pm: The Angels will send infield prospect Jahmai Jones to the Orioles as part of the discussed deal, Rosenthal and colleague Fabian Ardaya report (Twitter link). The Orioles are eating more than half of Cobb’s $15MM salary in order to facilitate the deal, according to Connolly.

It’s rather surprising to see Jones included in this swap. While his stock has tumbled in recent seasons, he’s a former second-round draft pick who at one point ranked among MLB’s top 100 prospects at Baseball America, MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus. Baseball America ranked Jones 11th on the Halos’ 2020-21 list.

The 23-year-old Jones went 3-for-7 in a very brief MLB debut with the Angels in 2020, so he’s a departure from some of the Orioles’ other prospect acquisitions. He’s a near-MLB-ready piece that could be plugged into the big league mix as soon as this season. Jones has played second base and center field throughout his minor league career. His bat has stalled a bit in Double-A, where he’s batted .237/.315/.338 in a very pitcher-friendly environment.

9:54am: The two teams are indeed in talks on the trade, though MLB.com’s Joe Trezza tweets that it’s not yet close to completion. Talks still “seem to be trending in the right direction,” per MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko.

9:20am: The Angels and Orioles are working out a trade to send right-hander Alex Cobb from Baltimore to Anaheim, Dan Connolly and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic report (via Twitter). Details are still being finalized, Connolly adds. The Orioles are surely including some cash to offset a portion of the $15MM that Cobb is owed under the final season of his four-year, $57MM contract with the O’s. That deal contains a 10-team no-trade clause, but the Angels either aren’t on it or Cobb is willing to waive it to move to a more competitive club.

Cobb signed late in the 2017-18 offseason, inking his surprising four-year pact with the O’s on March 21, when Spring Training was nearing its completion. He didn’t make his team debut until April 14 that year, but even with some extra time to tune up, it appeared that the lack of a full Spring Training was tough on Cobb, who was tagged for 17 runs on 30 hits in his first three starts.

From that point forth, Cobb largely righted the ship, pitching to a respectable 4.22 ERA from May through season’s end. Cobb’s strikeout percentage was nowhere near what it’d been at his best in Tampa Bay, however, and that remains the case today. A back injury torpedoed Cobb’s 2019 season, but he returned in 2020 to make 10 starts with a 4.30 ERA (4.65 SIERA), a 16.8 percent strikeout rate and an eight percent walk rate.

Cobb’s recent strikeout rates are well south of the league average, and last year’s eight percent walk rate was his highest since his rookie year back in 2011. His Statcast profile doesn’t paint a particularly favorable picture, as his hard-hit rate and average opponents’ exit velocity were among the highest marks of any pitcher in the league. Cobb’s 54.5 percent ground-ball rate is encouraging, though — particularly when considering that he’d be playing in front of a strong infield defense in Anaheim (Anthony Rendon, Jose Iglesias, David Fletcher).

Certainly, Cobb isn’t the top-of-the-rotation starter that most believe the Angels need, but the cost of acquisition here is likely to be relatively small, and he’ll give the Halos another able-bodied arm to soak up some innings. Teams need far more than five starters to get through a 162-game season under normal circumstances, and that reality will be amplified exponentially in 2021 after last year’s shortened schedule truncated every Major League pitcher’s workload.

Cobb joins Dylan Bundy, Andrew Heaney, Griffin Canning, Jose Quintana, Shohei Ohtani, Jaime Barria and Patrick Sandoval as rotation options on the 40-man roster for the Angels. It’s likely that everyone from that bunch will get some starts, and it’s worth wondering whether the Angels will consider a six-man rotation given their bulk approach to their rotation composition. That will be determined by new general manager Perry Minasian and manager Joe Maddon, the latter of whom is plenty familiar with Cobb after managing the first several seasons of his career with the Rays.

For the Orioles, subtracting Cobb from an already suspect rotation thins out the depth and, more importantly in ownership’s eyes, scales back the payroll. Even with Cobb on the books, the Orioles’ payroll sat at just $64MM, but this deal could drop them below the $60MM mark, depending on how the financial details are sorted out.

If Cobb indeed departs, left-hander John Means would be the only lock for the Baltimore rotation. Younger options like Keegan Akin and Dean Kremer seem likely to be given the opportunity to earn Opening Day spots, and the Orioles have several potential rotation pieces on their 40-man roster: Bruce Zimmerman, Jorge Lopez, Michael Baumann, Zac Lowther, Alexander Wells.

General manager Mike Elias spoke recently about the possibility of signing a veteran starting pitcher, and the need for depth is only further underscored by the trade of the team’s most experienced starter. It’s likely that whoever the Orioles bring in will command less in terms of salary than whatever sum the Orioles are saving in the Cobb deal.

Last year, Elias filled out the rotation by signing Wade LeBlanc and Tommy Milone to non-guaranteed deals that eventually paid them less than $1MM apiece upon earning roster spots in Spring Training. It’s plausible, if not likely, that the Orioles will take a similar approach in the weeks ahead.

Orioles Re-Sign Wade LeBlanc To Minor League Contract

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The Orioles have re-signed left-hander Wade LeBlanc to a minor league contract with an invitation to MLB camp, Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets. LeBlanc will earn a $700K salary if he makes it to the majors this year.

The Orioles signed LeBlanc to a minors pact last offseason, and while he did ultimately earn a roster spot, he didn’t perform especially well or stay healthy. The journeyman ended up posting an 8.06 ERA/5.77 SIERA in 22 1/3 innings and six starts. LeBlanc’s season concluded near the end of August because of a stress fracture in his pitching elbow.

Although the soft-tossing LeBlanc wasn’t effective in 2020, Baltimore is still willing to take a low-risk chance on him again. The 36-year-old swingman does own a useful 4.55 ERA in 882 1/3 innings since he debuted in 2008, and the Orioles could use a veteran option – particularly if their potential Alex Cobb trade with the Angels goes through.

Orioles Outright Chris Shaw

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The Orioles have outrighted first baseman/outfielder Chris Shaw to Triple-A Norfolk, per a team announcement. The club designated Shaw for assignment last week, but he cleared waivers.

Shaw has only been with the Baltimore organization for a little over two months, as it claimed him off waivers from San Francisco toward the end of November. The 27-year-old was a prospect of note in his younger days, going 31st overall to the Giants in the 2015 draft and subsequently ranking among their best farmhands on multiple occasions. However, Shaw hasn’t found any real success in the majors to this point, though the sample of work hasn’t been extensive. He collected 82 plate appearances as a Giant from 2018-19 and batted .153/.244/.222 with a 37.8 percent strikeout rate and one home run.

To Shaw’s credit, he has been a pretty successful hitter in the minors, having slashed .279/.340/.520 with 109 homers over 2,189 plate appearances. During his most recent minor league action in 2019, he posted a strong .298/.355/.592 line with 21 HRs across 310 trips to the plate in Triple-A.

Quick Hits: Indians, Payroll, Patton, Nationals, Catchers

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The Indians did not budget enough money in 2021 to both re-sign Cesar Hernandez and add free agent Eddie Rosario. With those two completing the lineup, the Indians’ roster is more-or-less set with a payroll around $50MM, per Paul Hoynes of Cleveland.com. Take this for what it is, but the Indians exceeded payroll just to get there. Owner Paul Dolan made an extra concession to allow the addition of Rosario. To their credit, he represents a somewhat major addition given their inability to field above-average offensive outfielders. Over the last two seasons, Rosario slashed .271/.305/.494 with 45 home runs over 821 plate appearances, good for a modest 105 wRC+. That Nolan was willing to stretch the payroll speaks volumes about how the Indians value Rosario’s fit in the lineup.

  • Spencer Patton is throwing an improved change-up with the hopes of bringing three viable pitches out of the bullpen, per Robert Murray of FanSided. The 32-year-old right-hander led Nippon Professional Baseball with 57 appearances last season, which is no small feat to MLB teams aware of the perils in ramping up pitcher workloads in 2021. Patton’s numbers from Japan won’t blow you away, however, with a 4.92 ERA, respectable 28.1 percent strikeout rate, and slightly-concerning 11.7 percent walk rate. Patton will throw for teams again on February 2nd, with the Braves, Rays, Angels, Royals, Rangers, and Giants being among the teams to have shown some interest thus far.
  • Pitching has long been the focus for the Nationals organization, but at the same time, they’ve lagged behind in the catching department, writes MASNSports.com’s Mark Zuckerman. Pedro Severino is the most prolific homegrown catcher with 105 games played for the organization – though he didn’t break out until joining the Orioles. Raudy Read or Tres Barrera are next in line to have an opportunity, but the recent signing of Alex Avila suggests GM Mike Rizzo isn’t ready to give either one too long of a look out of the blocks. Both Barrera and Read have served PED suspensions in the past, however, and Welington Castillo will also be in camp as a non-roster invitee.

Orioles News & Rumors: Mancini, Martin, Infield, Pitching

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As the Braves look at potential options in left field, they’ve inquired with the Orioles about Trey Mancini’s availability, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman, who adds that there’s been “nothing serious” discussed between the two parties to this point. Interest in Mancini is rather logical for a Braves club that is still seeking a middle-of-the-order bat but may not want to pay the prices necessary to re-sign Marcell Ozuna to a multi-year deal.

Mancini, 28, broke out with a career-best .291/.364/.535 showing with the Orioles in 2019 but missed the 2020 season after a frightening colon cancer diagnosis. The slugger underwent surgery and ultimately emerged victorious in his battle with cancer, announcing back in November that he was cancer-free after months of chemotherapy. No one can blame the Braves for coveting Mancini’s final two years of team control, but given that context and Mancini’s status as a clubhouse leader in Baltimore, it’d likely be tough for the O’s to part with him in a trade prior to the season. Even if the two sides were to engage in serious talks, one can imagine the asking price would be quite high.

There’s also the fact that while Mancini has played extensively in the outfield corners, he’s still a first baseman playing out of position there. That’s not a great fit with the Braves, given Freddie Freeman’s presence at first base. Notably, Baltimore general manager Mike Elias told reporters today that he expects Mancini to spend a lot more time at first base in 2021 (Twitter link via MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko).

While a Mancini trade appears unlikely for several reasons, that probably won’t stop teams from calling. Elias acknowledged today every win-now club throughout the league is aware that the Orioles are willing to listen to offers for most of their roster as their rebuild trudges onward (Twitter link via MLB.com’s Joe Trezza). That, however, “doesn’t mean we’re going to do anything,” Elias added.

The O’s, in fact, could make a few more small-scale additions after signing shortstop Freddy Galvis to a one-year, $1.5MM deal yesterday. Galvis, to no one’s surprise, was tabbed as the primary shortstop by Elias, but the club could still be on the lookout for some versatile infield depth to back him up (via Kubatko). That’s likely due in no small part to the fact that infielder Richie Martin sustained a broken hamate bone in his left hand while working out this past weekend and will require surgery to repair the injury.

Based on prior timelines for that same injury, Martin could return midway through Spring Training — assuming it starts on time — but he’ll very likely be behind schedule. Baltimore’s agreement with Galvis was already wrapped up by the time Martin suffered the injury, Dan Connolly of The Athletic points out; the timing is merely coincidental.

On the pitching front, the Orioles are still looking to add to a thin mix. Kubatko notes that Elias mentioned Major League offers to starting pitchers are on the table for the Orioles, although the GM (as one would expect) provided no further specifics. Based on the team’s extremely limited spending and Connolly’s recent report that the O’s actually tried to defer the arbitration salaries of Mancini and outfielder Anthony Santander, it seems unlikely that they’ll spend any significant cash to upgrade the starting staff or bullpen. That said, even a split contract that comes with a 40-man roster spot and a big league salary around the $1MM mark would technically fit the criteria listed by Elias.

Last year, the Orioles added lefties Tommy Milone and Wade LeBlanc on low-cost minor league deals to round out the rotation early in the year. It’s not likely that they’ll shop in a much more expensive bin this time around, but there are still some affordable names left standing on the free-agent market.

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