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Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions: Pitchers

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While the baseball world’s immediate focus is on the upcoming showdown between two behemoths, the offseason looms just after the World Series. One of the first key decisions for teams is whether to issue a qualifying offer to any of their impending free agents. Clubs have until the fifth day after the conclusion of the World Series to make QO decisions.

The QO is a one-year offer calculated by averaging the 125 highest salaries in MLB. This year’s price is $21.05MM. Joel Sherman of The New York Post reported in August that players who receive the QO have until November 19 to decide whether to lock in that one-year salary and return to their current team. If the player rejects and signs elsewhere, his former team would receive draft compensation. The signing club would forfeit a pick (or picks) and potentially international signing bonus space. The compensation and penalties vary depending on teams’ revenue sharing and luxury tax statuses. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently examined what each team would receive if they lose a qualified free agent, and the penalties they’d pay to sign one.

We looked at the candidates for a qualifying offer on the position player side yesterday. Today, it’s a look at the pitchers, where there are a couple borderline calls.

No-Doubters

These are the easiest QO decisions in the pitching class. Burnes and Fried are two of the three best pitchers available. (Blake Snell is ineligible.) They’ll reject the QO just as easily as their teams make the offer. Burnes will set his sights on a $200MM+ deal, while Fried should land five or six years well into nine figures.

As a revenue sharing recipient, Baltimore will get the top compensation if Burnes signs elsewhere for more than $50MM: a pick after the first round in next summer’s draft. Atlanta exceeded the luxury tax threshold, so they’ll receive minimal compensation. The Braves would get a selection after the fourth round if Fried departs.

Likely

Manaea will hit free agency once he makes the easy call to decline his $13.5MM player option. The southpaw ran with a full rotation opportunity in Queens after spending most of the ’23 season working in multi-inning relief with San Francisco. Manaea took all 32 turns and logged 181 2/3 innings of 3.47 ERA ball. He fanned a quarter of his opponents against an 8.5% walk rate while running a solid 11.7% swinging strike percentage. Manaea was dominant down the stretch, working to a 3.16 ERA while holding opponents to a .182/.251/.327 slash after July 1.

The veteran left-hander turns 33 in February. He should be in line for at least a three-year deal. Four is a real possibility. It’s hard to see Manaea accepting a QO. If he did, the Mets would probably be happy to have him back for just over $21MM (although it’d be a $44MM+ commitment after luxury taxes). This isn’t quite a lock to the same extent as the Burnes and Fried calls, but it’d be surprising if the Mets didn’t make the offer.

Borderline Calls

Severino is a trickier call for New York. He signed a one-year, $13MM pillow contract last offseason. Like Manaea, he stayed healthy and provided 30+ starts of mid-rotation production. Severino worked to a 3.91 earned run average through 182 innings. He was markedly better than he’d been during his final season with the Yankees. Still, it wasn’t a return to the form he’d shown early in his career in the Bronx.

The 30-year-old righty struck out a league average 21.2% of opposing hitters. He kept the ball on the ground at a solid 46% clip while walking just under 8% of batters faced. Those are all decent but not outstanding peripherals. Severino continued to struggle to miss bats on a per-pitch basis. His 9.4% swinging strike rate ranked 91st out of 126 pitchers with 100+ innings. Severino still has plus velocity, but his production is more in line with that of a third or fourth starter than a top-of-the-rotation force.

New York could be fine with that. If the Mets expect him to repeat this year’s production, $21.05MM is a decent investment. It’d again be $44MM+ after taxes, but Steve Cohen hasn’t shied away from huge CBT bills. Severino could be the player whose market value is most affected by whether he receives the QO. There are parallels to where Jameson Taillon and Taijuan Walker stood as free agents. Neither of those pitchers got a qualifying offer; they each landed four-year deals in the $70MM range. That kind of contract would be a tougher sell if a team is also giving up a draft pick.

The Mets would only get a post-fourth round pick as compensation if Severino declines the QO and walks. That’s not much. It’d be a prospect who might sneak into their organizational top 30. The offer is only worthwhile if the Mets would be happy to have Severino back at that price point. We’ll see in a few weeks how highly they value him.

Wacha’s two-year, $32MM free agent deal allows him to opt out after this season. The veteran righty should retest the market after a strong year in Kansas City. He turned in a 3.35 ERA across 166 2/3 innings. Wacha missed a bit of time in June with a small fracture in his left foot, but he was otherwise durable. It’s the second-highest inning total of his career and his third straight season allowing fewer than 3.50 earned runs per nine.

It’s not the flashiest profile. Wacha’s swing-and-miss and grounder rates are just alright. He has plus control and generally does a strong job avoiding hard contact. He’s not going to be valued as an ace, but he continues to churn out quality results despite playing on his sixth team in as many years.

An offer just north of $21MM might feel rich for Kansas City, but it’s not that much higher than the $16MM salary which they paid Wacha this past season. The Royals got what they wanted in year one, as Wacha joined Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo as a rotation nucleus that helped push them to a surprise trip to the AL Division Series.

This is a situation where the player accepting a qualifying offer might work out well for everyone involved. It’d give Wacha a $5MM+ raise and allow him to spend multiple seasons with a team for the first time since he left the Cardinals in 2019. Kansas City could keep their rotation intact. If the Royals don’t make the QO, Wacha has a shot at three years and a guarantee above $40MM going into his age-33 campaign. That’d be less likely if he’s attached to draft compensation.

Long Shots

Bieber could’ve been a QO candidate had he been healthy. He blew out after two fantastic starts and underwent Tommy John surgery in April. Bieber could return in the first half of next season, but he’d probably accept a qualifying offer. That’s likely too risky for Cleveland, though they could try to bring him back on an incentive-laden deal that allows him to approach $20MM if he stays healthy.

Hoffman is one of the best relievers in the class. He has had a dominant two-year run with Philadelphia, working to a 2.28 ERA in 118 2/3 innings. There’s no precedent for teams making a qualifying offer to non-closing relievers, though. The rare reliever QO has generally gone to pitchers with longer track records than Hoffman possesses and at least one full season of closing experience (i.e. Josh Hader, Raisel Iglesias, Will Smith, Greg Holland, Wade Davis, Kenley Jansen).

Martinez is going to decline a $12MM player option with Cincinnati. If he doesn’t get the QO, he’ll get another multi-year deal that could push beyond $30MM. Martinez had a third consecutive strong season, turning in a 3.10 ERA over 142 1/3 innings while working in a swing role. He started 16 of 42 appearances. If the Reds were committed to giving Martinez a rotation spot, there’d be an argument for the offer. A salary north of $21MM is a hefty sum for a player who has never really held a full-time starting job in MLB, though. The Reds spent around $100MM on player payroll this year. If they stay in that range, a Martinez QO would risk tying up more than 20% of their budget.

Pivetta has been durable and routinely posts plus strikeout and walk rates. He throws hard, misses bats and fares well in the eyes of ERA estimators that place a heavy emphasis on a pitcher’s K/BB profile. Nevertheless, he’s never had a season with a sub-4.00 earned run average. Pivetta gives up a bunch of hard contact and always allows more home runs than the average pitcher. He’s a solid innings eater, but the Sox have had four-plus seasons to try to unlock another gear and haven’t been able to do so. He’d likely accept the QO if offered. Boston probably prefers to keep that money in reserve and look for a clearer top-of-the-rotation arm.

Ineligible

Players traded midseason or who have already received the qualifying offer in their career are ineligible for the QO. Eovaldi, Scherzer and Snell each have a previous QO. Snell and Eovaldi would’ve been easy calls if they could’ve received them.

The midseason trade took the QO off the table for Flaherty, Kikuchi and Scott. The latter wouldn’t have gotten one from the Marlins in either case, but he’s the top reliever in the class. Flaherty would’ve been a lock for the QO if the Tigers hadn’t traded him at the deadline. Getting moved to the Dodgers gives him a chance to pitch in the World Series and took draft compensation off the table for his return trip to free agency. Kikuchi dominated after a deadline deal to the Astros and could command something like the QO salary on a three-year deal covering his ages 34-36 seasons.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions: Position Players

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While the baseball world’s immediate focus is on the upcoming showdown between two behemoths, the offseason looms just after the World Series. One of the first key decisions for teams is whether to issue a qualifying offer to any of their impending free agents. Clubs have until the fifth day after the conclusion of the World Series to make QO decisions.

The QO is a one-year offer calculated by averaging the 125 highest salaries in MLB. This year’s price is $21.05MM. Joel Sherman of The New York Post reported in August that players who receive the QO have until November 19 to decide whether to lock in that one-year salary and return to their current team. If the player rejects and signs elsewhere, his former team would receive draft compensation. The signing club would forfeit a pick (or picks) and potentially international signing bonus space. The compensation and penalties vary depending on teams’ revenue sharing and luxury tax statuses. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently examined what each team would receive if they lose a qualified free agent, and the penalties they’d pay to sign one.

No-Doubters

There’s zero suspense with this quintet. They’re going to receive qualifying offers, which they’ll easily decline. Soto is on his way to a record-setting deal. Adames and Bregman are locks for nine figures. Alonso has a solid chance to get there as well. It’s tougher to envision a $100MM contract for Santander, but he shouldn’t have any issue securing three or four years at an average annual value that’s around the QO price. As revenue sharing recipients, the Brewers and Orioles will get picks after the first round in the 2025 draft (assuming Adames and Santander sign for more than $50MM). The Mets, Yankees and Astros all paid the luxury tax and would only get a pick after the fourth round if they lose their qualified free agents.

Likely Recipients

We placed Hernández in the “likely” bucket last offseason when he was coming off a down year with the Mariners. Seattle opted not to make the QO and let him walk, citing a desire to cut back on the swing-and-miss profile that Hernández brings. That paved the way for the Dodgers to add him on a heavily deferred $23.5MM pillow contract. It was one of the best value signings of the winter. Hernández returned to peak form, bopping a career-best 33 homers with a .272/.339/.501 line through 652 plate appearances. That’s more than enough power to live with a few strikeouts and a fringy defensive profile in the corner outfield.

The cherry on top for L.A. is that Hernández remains eligible for the QO in his return to free agency. The Dodgers could accommodate a $21MM salary in the unlikely event that he accepts. As luxury tax payors, they’d only receive a pick after the fourth round in next year’s draft if he declines and walks. That minimal compensation is the biggest reason Hernández isn’t a lock, but he’s very likely to decline the QO in search of three or four years. The downside if he accepts is that he returns at a similar price point to the one Los Angeles offered coming off a rough season. Opting against the QO only makes sense if the Dodgers are fully committed to giving Andy Pages a look in left field next season.

Walker has seized upon a late-career opportunity with the Diamondbacks to develop into one of the sport’s best first basemen. He’s a Gold Glove caliber defender who topped 30 homers in both 2022 and ’23. He’d have gotten there again this season if not for an oblique injury that cost him the entire month of August. Walker had to “settle” for 26 homers with a .251/.335/.468 slash over 130 games.

The South Carolina product turns 34 just after Opening Day. He’s looking at four years at most and could wind up signing for two or three seasons. That could come at a comparable AAV to the qualifying offer price, though, and this is likely Walker’s only chance to really cash in on a multi-year contract. He’d likely decline a QO. If he didn’t, the D-Backs should be happy to have him back for another season at just over $21MM. The majority of MLBTR readers agree; more than 70% of respondents in a poll over the weekend opined that the Diamondbacks should make the offer.

Long Shots

It’s tough to see a qualifying offer for anyone in this group. Goldschmidt is the least likely. The Cardinals are entering a retooling year and he’s coming off the worst season of his career. The former MVP hit better in the second half than he did in the first. He should land a strong one-year deal but isn’t likely to get to $21MM.

Kim looked like a lock for the QO before suffering a late-season labrum injury in his throwing shoulder. He underwent surgery that’ll almost certainly sideline him into the early part of next year. There’s a decent chance he’d accept, which isn’t a great outcome for a Padres team that may enter the offseason already up against the budget. Payroll is a similar concern regarding Profar, who is coming off easily the best season of his career. He’s been wildly inconsistent throughout his decade-plus in the big leagues. San Diego baseball operations president A.J. Preller loves Profar, but $21MM+ is a lot for a team with a massive arbitration class and needs at shortstop and in the rotation. The Padres could try to bring him back for three or four years at a lesser annual hit.

O’Neill had a productive season for the Sox, hitting 31 homers with a .241/.336/.511 slash. He added three more IL stints to his lengthy career injury history, though, and the overwhelming majority of his production came against left-handed pitching. O’Neill’s righty bat provides a nice balance in a Boston lineup that skews heavily to the left side, but the QO price feels steep for this profile. There’s a strong chance he’d accept.

Torres would not have warranted a mention on this list a couple months ago. He had an excellent finish to the regular season (.306/.375/.417 after August 1) and has a .297/.400/.432 slash with more walks than strikeouts in October. That’s enough to at least get him back on the radar, but a QO still feels like a stretch. He’s a poor defensive second baseman whose overall season line — .257/.330/.378 in 665 plate appearances — was essentially league average.

At the trade deadline, the Yankees seemed set to turn the keystone to Jazz Chisholm Jr. and let Torres walk. They could keep Chisholm at the hot corner, but they’d need to overlook the flaws Torres showed for a good portion of the regular season. There’s a strong chance he’d accept a QO, which would put the Yanks on the hook for more than $44MM after accounting for the corresponding luxury tax hit. Tying that money up a week into an offseason where they’ll face a massive bidding war on Soto probably isn’t happening. That’s especially true since the compensation they’d receive if Torres declines (a pick after the fourth round) isn’t particularly valuable.

Ineligible

Players traded midseason or who have already received the qualifying offer in their career are ineligible for the QO. That’s largely a moot point with regard to the position player class, as no one from this group was likely to receive one anyways. Bellinger probably won’t opt out of the two years and $50MM left on his deal with the Cubs. Conforto and Pederson would’ve been fringe candidates at best even if they hadn’t received the offer earlier in their careers.

Orioles Notes: Bautista, Rogers, Anderson

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The Orioles enter the 2024-25 offseason on the heels of a disappointing end to their season where they fell out of the AL East race late in the year before failing to win a playoff game against the Royals during the Wild Card Series. While that disappointing end to the season in conjunction with the impending free agencies of key pieces like Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander is surely worrisome for fans in Baltimore, there is one major silver lining regarding the club’s 2025 outlook: the impending return of closer Felix Bautista

Bautista, 29, was perhaps the single most dominant bullpen arm on the planet in 2023 when he made his first career All-Star appearance and pitched to a jaw-dropping 1.48 ERA with a 1.88 FIP with a ridiculous 46.4% strikeout rate in 61 innings of work. Unfortunately, the dominant closer underwent Tommy John surgery in early October of last year and missed not only the 2023 postseason but all of 2024, as well. He figures to be back on the mound for Baltimore in 2025, though, and MASN’s Roch Kubatko relayed earlier today that Bautista is currently on track to be “full-go” in time for Spring Training in February. That’s a great sign for the Orioles, particularly given the fact that their bullpen took a major step back this past year as they tried to replace Bautista in the closer role with veteran closer Craig Kimbrel, who pitched quite well in the first half of the season but fell apart in mid-July, surrendering an 11.50 ERA with a 7.44 FIP in his final 18 innings of work before being designated for assignment in September.

Bautista may not be the only boost the club’s bullpen gets entering next year, either. The Orioles paid a hefty price to acquire lefty Trevor Rogers from the Marlins, surrendering well-regarded youngsters Kyle Stowers and Connor Norby to seal the deal. Rogers struggled badly in his first taste of action with the Orioles, however, surrendering 16 runs (15 earned) in 19 innings of work across four starts with the team before being demoted to Triple-A. That brutal stint in the club’s rotation raised some questions about the club’s future plans for Rogers, who is under control via arbitration through the end of the 2026 season. Kubatko offered some insight on the club’s thinking, noting that while the Orioles have not yet given up on the possibility that Rogers can pitch in the rotation the club also figures to weigh the value he could bring to the club as a long reliever.

That makes Rogers one of a handful of potential rotation options who will be fighting for a role with the big league club next spring. Grayson Rodriguez, Zach Eflin, and Dean Kremer all seem like to be part of the club’s rotation on Opening Day 2025, leaving two spots up for grabs. It seems likely that the Orioles will pursue an external addition either via free agency or on the trade market to fill at least one of those spots, but the club does have a handful of internal options for the back of their rotation even beyond Rogers. Albert Suarez enjoyed something of a breakout season in a swing role with the club at age-34, pitching to a solid 3.70 ERA in 133 2/3 innings of work this year while drawing 24 starts and making an additional eight relief appearances.

Other factors in the club’s rotation mix, if not out of Spring Training then at some point in 2025, figure to be youngsters Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott, both of whom made their big league debuts in 2024 to somewhat lackluster results. McDermott surrendered three runs on five hits (including a homer) and two walks while striking out three in four innings of work during his lone big league appearance this year, while Povich surrendered a 5.20 ERA with a 4.79 FIP in sixteen starts with the Orioles this year. Despite those bumpy debuts, however, the youngsters could still be utilized either as depth in the rotation or as long relief options out of the bullpen should they fail to earn a spot in the rotation out of camp this spring.

One other potential bullpen arm Kubatko suggests could be worth keeping an eye on is veteran right-hander Nick Anderson. Anderson, 34, was once a highly-regarded hurler for the Rays but missed time in recent years due to elbow surgery, plantar fasciitis, and shoulder issues. He pitched 35 2/3 innings for the Royals this year with a middling 4.04 ERA but a worrisome 5.06 FIP before being released by the Royals in late July. Anderson joined the Orioles on a minor league deal in the final days of August, but made just two appearances at the Triple-A level before being sidelined due to an injury and ultimately failed to make the big league club. While Anderson is currently scheduled to reach free agency following the World Series, Kubatko suggests that the club could look to re-sign him, presumably on a fresh minor league deal.

AL East Notes: Rubenstein, Orioles, German, Rays, Red Sox

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“I’m now 75 years old.  It’s unlikely that I’ll be, you know, doing this for 20 more years,” Orioles majority owner David Rubenstein said in a recent interview with NPR (hat tip to Rich Dubroff of Baltimore Baseball).  “So I’ve got to speed up the effort to get [to] a World Series a lot sooner than maybe some younger owners would.”

This might be one of the clearer indications yet that the Orioles are in for their busiest offseasons in a long time, especially since the team is now coming off a pair of playoff appearances with nary a single win from five total postseason games.  This is Rubenstein’s first winter since his ownership bought the team, and as GM Mike Elias implied during his end-of-season press conference, the O’s will have a lot more to spend than in recent years during the club’s rebuild, when the Angelos family was still in charge.

More from around the AL East….

  • Sticking with the Orioles, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko writes that the O’s “had no interest” in right-hander Domingo German in the past, which runs contrary to a report from the New York Post’s Mark W. Sanchez from last January.  German signed with the Pirates on a minors contract last winter and had only a 7.84 ERA in seven appearances and 20 2/3 innings on the big league roster in 2024.  Pittsburgh outrighted German off its 40-man roster in September and he elected free agency earlier this week.  Given his poor recent results and his troubled off-the-field history, it remains to be seen if any MLB teams will take a flier on German for another minor league deal.
  • The top Rays story remains the team’s likely need for a new temporary home to begin the 2025 season, as Tropicana Field sustained heavy damage due to Hurricane Milton.  John Romano of the Tampa Bay Times shares some details about the insurance policies attached to the stadium, and the possibility that the city of St. Petersburg (which is funding the repairs) might simply decide that repairing the Trop isn’t worth it since the Rays’ new ballpark is set to open in 2028.  “We’re going to try to figure out every avenue, both through insurance and otherwise, to try to make sure the Rays have a place to play in St. Petersburg.  But we’re going to make sure that it’s a financially responsible decision,” city council member Copley Gerdes said.  Romano opines that Orlando might check off the most boxes as the Rays’ interim home, as the team could play at the 9500-seat stadium on the ESPN Wide World Of Sports complex at Walt Disney World.
  • The Red Sox promoted Kyle Boddy to the role of director of baseball science on an interim basis, the Boston Globe’s Alex Speier reports (via X).  The position appears to be a newly-created job within the Sox front office, as Brad Alberts is credited in the team’s directory as the “team lead” of baseball sciences, but there is no director position.  Boddy founded the data-based Driveline Baseball training facility in 2012, and then moved into an official role with a big league club when he was the Reds’ pitching coordinator for the majority of the 2020-21 seasons.  The Red Sox brought Boddy aboard last January as an advisor to chief baseball officer Craig Breslow.

Offseason Outlook: Baltimore Orioles

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The Orioles got off to a strong start in 2024 but were only two games above .500 over their final 100 contests. They still finished with 91 wins, third-most in the American League, but their season ended in disappointment. For the second year in a row, the Orioles were swept out of the postseason in short order. General manager Mike Elias seems confident he’ll have more payroll flexibility this winter, but he’ll also be tasked with replacing (or re-signing) two of the 2024 team’s most valuable contributors.

Guaranteed Contracts

Additional Financial Commitments

  • Craig Kimbrel, RHP: $1MM buyout owed on $13MM club option for 2025

Total 2025 commitments: $22MM
Total future commitments: $22MM

Option Decisions

  • Eloy Jiménez, DH: $16.5MM club option for 2025 with $3MM buyout (White Sox will pay $1.5MM toward buyout)
  • Seranthony Domínguez, RHP: $8MM club option for 2025 with $500K buyout
  • Ryan O’Hearn, 1B/DH/OF: $8MM club option for 2025
  • Danny Coulombe, LHP: $4MM club option for 2025
  • Cionel Pérez, LHP: $2.2MM club option for 2025 (eligible for arbitration if club option declined)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Non-tender candidates: Soto, Smith, Mateo, Bowman, Rivera

Free Agents

The Orioles have money coming off the books this winter, most notably the salaries of Corbin Burnes ($15.64MM), Craig Kimbrel ($12MM), and Anthony Santander ($11.7MM). However, Zach Eflin is due for a raise, and his salary will be on the payroll from day one. Seranthony Domínguez, Ryan O'Hearn, Danny Coulombe, and Cionel Pérez could also receive raises if the O’s exercise their club options. (The same is true for Eloy Jiménez, but this team is more likely to pick up and move to Baltimore, Ireland than it is to pick up that option.)  In addition, the Orioles have more arbitration-eligible players than any other team. 

If the Orioles pick up all of their club options (aside from Jiménez’s) and tender contracts to all of their arbitration-eligible players, that would put their player payroll for 2025 at around $105.8MM, a number that includes guaranteed contracts, buyouts, estimated salaries for arb-eligible players, and RosterResource’s $9.12MM estimate for pre-arb salaries. To put that in context, RosterResource estimates their final payroll in 2024 was $103MM. All that to say, ownership and the front office have little choice but to increase the payroll if they're planning to improve the roster over the winter.

It's a good thing, then, that Elias suggested he'll have more spending power this offseason than he has in the past. He has not confirmed that the Orioles' payroll will rise in 2025, but he told reporters (including Jake Rill of MLB.com), “I would be pretty confident that we’re going to keep investing in the Major League payroll.”

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MLBTR Podcast: Changes In Minnesota, Cubs’ Prospect Depth, And Possibilities For The O’s

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • With Jed Hoyer in the last year of his contract, how aggressive will the Cubs be this offseason? Also, with so many top 100 prospects nearing the majors, how will that impact their offseason decisions? (10:10)
  • What is the feeling about the Orioles possible spending this offseason? Is there a sense of what could happen or is more wait-and-see in the inside baseball world? (26:55)
  • What do the Rangers need to do in this offseason in order to be competitive next year.  Any specific players they need to target? (32:45)
  • Willson Contreras seems like a logical fit for the Blue Jays if the Cardinals decide to move him. Only problem might be the return since the Cardinals want to shed money. Would this be likely? (34:55)
  • The Padres have spent significant resources to build its current roster, but the World Series title continues to elude them. With potential payroll issues looming, how do they maintain their success for 2025 and beyond? They have a good lineup and great bullpen, but how do they avoid being worse in 2025? (39:50)

Check out our past episodes!

  • Previewing FA Starting Pitchers, TV Deals, And Potential Spending Teams – listen here
  • Buster Posey Takes Over In SF And The Cardinals’ Succession Plan – listen here
  • Final Days In Oakland, The Surging Tigers, And If The Nats Will Pursue Juan Soto – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Colton Cowser Undergoes Surgery On Fractured Hand

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The Orioles announced today that outfielder Colton Cowser underwent successful surgery to repair his fractured left hand. Cowser, who the O’s announced is expected to be ready for Spring Training in 2025, was diagnosed with the fracture shortly after the Orioles were eliminated from the playoffs at the hands of the Royals. In the final game of Baltimore’s season, Cowser swung at an up-and-in pitch from Kansas City southpaw Angel Zerpa and was called out on strikes despite being struck in the left hand by the pitch.

The news is somewhat surprising, as there were no immediate indications that Cowser’s fracture would require surgery in the aftermath of the injury. All the same, the Orioles are surely relieved that the 24-year-old figures to avoid missing the early part of next year due to the issue after a banner year in 2024. The rookie’s first full season in the majors was very impressive, as he slashed a solid .242/.321/.447 with a wRC+ of 120, 24 homers, and nine steals.

That strong offensive performance combined with solid glove work in the outfielder, where he split time between all three outfield spots. That proved to be enough to not only cement Cowser’s role as the Orioles’ everyday left fielder but also allowed him to lead AL rookies in fWAR with a 4.0 figure that was only eclipsed by Padres center fielder Jackson Merrill and Pirates righty Paul Skenes among MLB rookies this year. In terms of left fielder’s Cowser’s performance tied with Tigers outfielder Riley Greene for the fifth-most fWAR in the majors, trailing only Jarren Duran, Yordan Alvarez, Jurickson Profar and Steven Kwan.

Looking ahead to 2025, Cowser’s excellent performance in the outfield this year figures to make him a key cog in the Baltimore lineup next season, particularly given the impending free agency of right fielder Anthony Santander next month. With Santander seemingly unlikely to return next year, the Orioles figure to rely more heavily on the production of Cowser and fellow youngster Heston Kjerstad in the outfield alongside Cedric Mullins next year, though infield prospect Coby Mayo’s name has also been floated as a potential outfield option for the club next year. Of course, even an outfield mix that features strong seasons from both Kjerstad and Mayo would surely miss the production offered by Santander, who slugged a career-best 44 homers in 2024.

Given that, it would hardly be a surprise if the Orioles explored adding a veteran bat to their outfield mix in order to help safeguard against injury or potential struggles from the club’s young outfielders. While the Orioles figure to primarily focus on bolstering a pitching staff that figures to lose Corbin Burnes to free agency and be without key pieces such as Kyle Bradish in the early part of next year, there should be a number of affordable veteran bats available such as Michael Conforto or Mark Canha who could be added without a significant financial burden if the club wants to add depth to its outfield mix.

Orioles Notes: Angelos, McCann, Asche

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John Angelos was the chairman of the Orioles from 2020, when he formally took over from his father, Peter, until earlier this year, when his family sold the club to new owner David Rubenstein. Initially, Angelos was expected to remain with the club in a senior adviser role, but it seems as if that arrangement didn’t last long. According to Matt Weyrich of the Baltimore Sun, Angelos is no longer connected to the team in any capacity after selling his remaining shares to Rubenstein’s ownership group this past August.

Angelos was hardly popular within the Orioles fanbase. The team’s payroll shrunk dramatically under his leadership, and he often complained about the lack of financial resources available to smaller-market organizations. In 2023, he told The Athletic’s Tyler Kepner that the only way to keep all the team’s young stars would be to raise ticket prices “dramatically.” Yet, he reneged on his promise to show reporters the complete “financials of the Orioles” (per the Associated Press). With Rubenstein’s takeover came the hope that the O’s would start spending significantly more on player payroll, and the news that Angelos is no longer exerting any influence over the team’s decisions can only increase that optimism. Baltimore’s payroll was significantly higher in 2024, though still well below league average. Earlier this month, general manager Mike Elias said he was “pretty confident” the payroll will continue to increase in 2025.

One task the Orioles will face this offseason (though hardly their most expensive decision) will be re-signing or replacing backup catcher James McCann. On that subject, Roch Kubatko of MASN Sports recently pointed out that McCann initially had the O’s on his five-team no-trade list back when he signed a four-year, $40.6MM deal with the Mets during the 2020-21 offseason. Needless to say, he ended up approving a trade to the Orioles anyway. What’s more, including the Orioles on his five-team no-trade list doesn’t necessarily mean McCann was opposed to playing in Baltimore. At the time he signed that deal, the Orioles were one of the basement-dwellers of the American League. That’s no longer the case. And it bears repeating that he ultimately accepted the trade that sent him to the Orioles – after they proved they were opening their window of contention with an 83-win season in 2022. Still, it’s a tidbit of information worth keeping in mind as the veteran backstop approaches free agency. McCann is well-liked by his Orioles teammates and has gotten plenty of playing time over the past two years as a backup for Adley Rutschman.

In one more note of interest, Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com discussed the Orioles coaching staff today, specifically the hitting coach vacancy left behind after co-hitting coach Ryan Fuller was let go and fellow co-hitting coach Matt Borgschulte returned to the Twins. Dubroff pointed out that Cody Asche, technically the team’s offensive strategy coach, also functioned as a third hitting coach for the club. It’s unclear if Asche will change roles next season, but Dubroff does mention that Asche is “respected in the clubhouse.” He has been with the organization since 2022, first as a minor league hitting coordinator before joining the big league staff for the 2023 campaign. Previously, he was a minor league hitting coach in the Phillies organization. At 34 years old, he is still young for a big league coach, but he is certainly a name to keep in mind as the Orioles look to find their next hitting guru.

Orioles Sign David Banuelos To Minor League Contract

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The Orioles signed catcher David Banuelos to a new minor league contract, MASNSports.com’s Roch Kubatko reports (X link).  The deal contains an invitation to Baltimore’s big league Spring Training camp.

Banuelos had been eligible for minor league free agent but the contract ensures that he’ll remain in the Orioles organization for a second year.  After signing a minors deal with the O’s last winter, Banuelos made his Major League debut in the form of a pinch-hit appearance in Baltimore’s 11-3 win over the Twins on April 16.  That lone game marked Banuelos’ only MLB appearance of the season, and he also played in only 22 games for Triple-A Norfolk.

The lack of proper playing time was due to Banuelos’ status as a regular member of the Orioles’ taxi squad, as the O’s wanted an emergency catcher available to back up Adley Rutschman and James McCann.  With Rutschmann playing almost every day as either a catcher or DH, the Orioles wanted extra depth if an injury hit either of their two regular backstops.  This left Banuelos without much playing time since Rutschman and McCann both avoided the injured list — somewhat remarkably in McCann’s case, given how he was hit in the face with a pitch back on July 29.

Banuelos also spent part of the season in roster limbo, as the Orioles designated the catcher for assignment and outrighted him off their 40-man roster on three separate occasions.  After being outrighted the first time, Banuelos gained the right to reject any future outright assignments in favor of free agency, though Banuelos opted to remain with Baltimore after he cleared waivers the next two times.

Even with just a cup of coffee in the Show, Banuelos can now officially call himself a big leaguer after seven pro seasons.  A fifth-round pick for the Mariners in the 2017 draft, Banuelos spent just his first season in Seattle’s organization before he was dealt to the Twins, and he played in Minnesota’s farm system from 2018-23.  Banuelos has hit .216/.283/.354 over 1265 career plate appearances in the minors.

Twins To Name Matt Borgschulte Hitting Coach

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The Twins are hiring Orioles co-hitting coach Matt Borgschulte as their new hitting coach, replacing the recently dismissed David Popkins, as first reported by Brandon Warne. It’s a return to his first professional organization, as Borgschulte was a hitting coach in the Twins’ minor league ranks from 2018-21 before being hired to Baltimore’s big league staff for the 2022 season. Prior to his days as a coach in the Twins system, Borgschulte had been coaching at Southeast Missouri State University.

Borgschulte’s departure is the latest in a shakeup of the Orioles’ coaching staff on the heels of a second-half decline for the club, during which many of the team’s hitters struggled to produce at prior levels. His co-hitting coach, Ryan Fuller, was one of three coaches from whom the club moved on last week. Baltimore still has former big leaguer Cody Asche on manager Brandon Hyde’s staff as the “offensive strategy coordinator,” but it seems there’ll be a change of note in the organization’s messaging to a young core of hitters.

The Twins are plenty familiar with Borgschulte, of course, and will now install him on the club’s big league staff after declining to do so heading into the 2022 campaign. Dan Hayes of The Athletic tweets that Borgschulte was a finalist for what was then a vacant hitting coach position that ultimately went to Popkins.

Minnesota is undergoing a similar overhaul to its organizational hitting strategy. Popkins was one of four coaches the Twins cut loose. They also moved on from assistant hitting coaches Rudy Hernandez and Derek Shomon. Hernandez had been at his post as assistant hitting coach for nine years.

Though the second half of the season didn’t go well in Baltimore, Borgschulte clearly had a role in working with the Orioles’ impressive core of young hitters in recent years. It’s impossible to pin an entire organization’s successes or failures on one singular coach, but the O’s have churned out quality hitters like Gunnar Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Jordan Westburg and Colton Cowser in recent seasons while seeing veterans like Anthony Santander and Ryan O’Hearn take their offensive games to new levels. Minnesota will hope for similar strides among its own impressive core of young hitters, including Matt Wallner, Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien and Brooks Lee (among others).

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