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10 MLB Teams Whose Business Initiatives Face Coronavirus Hurdles

By Jeff Todd | May 1, 2020 at 9:34pm CDT

Like most every person or business, all thirty MLB teams face tough questions during the time of COVID-19. Some are relatively similar for all ballclubs, but there are obviously quite a few unique issues — some more pressing than others.

Dealing with the implications of this pandemic is probably toughest for organizations that are in the midst of executing or planning major business initiatives. We’ll run down some of those here.

Angels: The team has been cooking up potentially massive plans to develop the area around Angel Stadium. Fortunately, nothing is really in process at the moment, but it stands to reason that the project could end up being reduced in scope and/or delayed.

Athletics: Oof. The A’s have done a ton of work to put a highly ambitious stadium plan in motion. Massive uncertainty of this type can’t help. It isn’t clear just yet how the effort will be impacted, but it seems reasonable to believe the organization is pondering some tough decisions.

Braves: Luckily for the Atlanta-area organization, the team’s new park and most of the surrounding development is already fully operational. But with the added earning capacity from retail operations in a ballpark village comes greater exposure to turmoil.

Cubs: Like the Braves, the Cubs have already done most of the work at and around their park, but were counting on big revenue to pay back what’s owed (and then some). Plus, the Cubbies have a new TV network to bring up to speed.

Diamondbacks: Vegas?! Vancouver?! Probably not, but the Snakes do want to find a new home somewhere in Arizona. That effort is sure to be dented. Plus, the team’s recent initiative to host non-baseball events at Chase Field will now go on hiatus.

Marlins: The new ownership group has had some good vibes going and hoped to convert some of the positivity into a healthy new TV deal. That critical negotiation will now take place in a brutal economic environment.

Mets: So … this is probably not an optimal moment to be selling your sports franchise. The Wilpon family is pressing ahead with an effort to strike a new deal after their prior one broke down (at the worst possible time).

Orioles: That bitter television rights fee dispute that just won’t stop … it’s not going to be easier to find a resolution with less cash coming through the door. It was already setting up to be a rough stretch for the Baltimore org, with past TV money due to the Nationals and more bills to come, even while going through brutally lean years on the playing field.

Rangers: The new park is now built. While taxpayers footed much of the bill, the club still has to pay back a $600MM loan. Suffice to say the Rangers (and municipal authorities) anticipated game day revenues of more than $0 in year one when they planned out the loan repayment method.

Rays: The club’s preferred Ybor City option flamed out and it is currently engaged in a somewhat confusing effort to split time between the Tampa Bay area and Montreal. Existing hurdles to that arrangement seem only to be taller in the age of the coronavirus.

Others: We may be missing some, but it seems most other organizations are engaged more in usual-course sorts of business initiatives rather than franchise-altering efforts. For instance, the Nats have an interest in that TV deal as well. The Red Sox have been working to redevelop areas around Fenway Park. The Blue Jays are dabbling in future plans. And the Dodgers have a new TV rights deal, though that came to fruition after the pandemic hit and may not be impacted any more than any other existing carriage arrangements.

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Arizona Diamondbacks Atlanta Braves Baltimore Orioles Boston Red Sox Chicago Cubs Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Dodgers MLBTR Originals Miami Marlins New York Mets Oakland Athletics Tampa Bay Rays Texas Rangers Toronto Blue Jays Washington Nationals Coronavirus

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Losing Thor

By Jeff Todd | May 1, 2020 at 8:00pm CDT

We were all dealing with much more significant problems when the shocking news came down: Noah Syndergaard, the Mets’ high-octane hurler, was headed in for Tommy John surgery. That would’ve hit like a ton of bricks — just two days before Opening Day — had it not been for the fact that the season was already on pause.

The replacement of Thor’s ulnar collateral ligament will hopefully save his career. But it’ll wipe out his age-27 season, severely denting the hopes of the Mets in 2020 (should the campaign get underway). The hope had been that Syndergaard would trend back towards his immense ceiling, giving the team the game’s best 1-2 punch alongside uber-ace Jacob deGrom.

But that’s really only part of the picture for the Mets — the toughest, but also the simplest part. The club has no choice but to soldier on and trust in the arms it has compiled. There’s no changing course in late March. But what of the longer view?

The Mets will certainly tender Syndergaard a contract for 2021, his final season of arbitration eligibility, unless there’s a serious red flag in his rehab efforts. That’ll cost $9.7MM, a match for his 2020 salary. Even if the Mets only get something like half of a season from Syndergaard, he’s almost certainly worth that kind of risk. And the team would be buying the right to make him a qualifying offer — and, if he declines it, to accrue draft compensation — at season’s end.

But wait … we’re basically now contemplating Syndergaard as something of a ten million dollar roll of the dice on upside. It typically takes about 14 months for a starter to get back to full competitive action after undergoing the surgery, which would put him on track to resume action in June of 2021. And Syndergaard will have as much personal incentive to take full care in getting back to the hill as he will to perform well when he does, as he’ll be preparing for free agency. When GM Brodie Van Wagenen plotted his recent moves, including bidding adieu to Zack Wheeler, the idea was to have a full 2021 season of Syndergaard and deGrom. Instead, it’ll be deGrom, a hopeful mid-season return of Thor, and … let’s see what else …

The notion of an in-house Wheeler replacement, in the form of Marcus Stroman, made some amount of sense in the context of the 2020 campaign. But Stroman is now headed for his own trip on the open market, likely after turning down a qualifying offer. There’s no indication that the sides have gained traction in extension talks (if they’ve seriously engaged in them at all). Recent signees Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha are only playing on one-year deals, so they’ll also be free agents.

Adding Stroman cost the Mets a near-majors prospect in Anthony Kay and a potential fast riser in Simeon Woods Richardson. The club had already moved another immediate-term rotation candidate in Justin Dunn, who went to Seattle in the Edwin Diaz–Robinson Cano deal.

[MLBTR on YouTube: Mets’ Disastrous Trade For Diaz & Cano] 

Those moves have left the upper reaches of the Mets farm relatively barren of well-regarded rotation talent. David Peterson, Thomas Szapucki, Franklyn Kilome, and Kevin Smith are among the best arms in the system who could be part of the 2021 rotation picture. But they’ll all lost major developmental opportunities due to the coronavirus. There are a few other somewhat more advanced hurlers, as we discussed in evaluating the team’s rotation depth this spring, but the general talent level is rated at a step below the names just listed. It’s awfully tough to presume that the Mets will feel comfortable leaning on this group.

The biggest wild card may be Steven Matz, whose ups and downs are well-documented. He has been healthy enough to make thirty starts in each of the past two seasons, carrying a sturdy 4.09 ERA across that span, but fielding-independent pitching measures aren’t nearly as bullish on Matz as they once were. In 2019, he generated a 4.60 FIP, 4.33 xFIP, and 4.47 SIERA — all checking in north of his 4.21 ERA.

If something goes wrong with Matz, the Mets could be looking at opening the 2021 season with four new rotation pieces alongside deGrom. Even with the prospect of a heroic return of Thor buoying the team mid-campaign, that’s a tough picture for an organization that has enjoyed so much excellence from its staff. On the plus side, there will be a lot of money available to work with … depending upon how you look at things.

The Mets were set to enter the 2020 season with just under $175MM of payroll; they’re committed for about $100MM less for 2021. That’s good! But it doesn’t include arbitration spending. With Syndergaard, Matz, Michael Conforto, Edwin Diaz, Brandon Nimmo, Seth Lugo, Amed Rosario, J.D. Davis, and others, this could be a $40-45MM arbitration class. That would move the total payroll into the $120MM range.

Either way, there should in theory be some funds to work with, though it’s anyone’s guess what’ll be happening with the team’s uncertain ownership situation and how that will weigh on the situation. Thing is, the Mets will also have quite a few holes to fill. Adding as many as four reliable starters just isn’t easy to do on the cheap. The Mets also figure to have openings at catcher, in center field, and in a bullpen that will lose Dellin Betances, Justin Wilson, and Brad Brach.

This is a tough spot for the Mets. In a normal season, they’d probably adjust their mid-season trade stance to being more willing to sell. If the campaign isn’t developing quite as hoped, there’d be an opportunity to cash in Stroman and perhaps others to help prepare for 2021. But we have no idea whether that’ll really be possible in a highly unusual 2020 season format (the details of which remain completely unknown at this point). And it’d hurt to take a seller stance after building up to contend.

The Mets were dealt a tough hand here; the loss of Syndergaard really stings even beyond 2020. Suppose he had pitched well in 2020 but the team went south in other areas; he’d have been a prime mid-season or offseason trade chip. Or what if things do indeed turn out well for the club even absent Thor? A contending Mets team may end up being forced to mine the farm system to bring in an impact arm, whether in mid-2020 or the ensuing offseason or both. Planning for the 2021 season and beyond will now be quite a bit more complicated, because it’ll be quite difficult to know what the club will get out of Syndergaard. And the possibility of an extension with Syndergaard — while perhaps remote to begin with — now seems quite difficult even to imagine.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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MLBTR Originals New York Mets Noah Syndergaard

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Latest On Potential Mets Sale

By Connor Byrne | April 30, 2020 at 8:56pm CDT

Mets owners Fred Wilpon and Jeff Wilpon are considering selling the franchise, though they may not make out as well as they hope if a deal does come together. Rumored bidder Wayne Rothbaum does indeed have interest in taking the Mets off the Wilpons’ hands, but only at a reduced price, according to Thornton McEnery of the New York Post.

“I think he likes the idea of $1 billion,” a source told McEnery. “It’s a round number and the Wilpons are not holding any cards without SNY.”

That wouldn’t be an ideal outcome for the Wilpons, whose financial situation has taken a hit as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Even if half of a baseball season takes place this year, the Wilpons could lose up to $150MM, per McEnery.

Before the league shut down because of the coronavirus, the Wilpons nearly agreed to sell an 80 percent stake in the Mets to Steve Cohen for $2.6 billion, but those plans fell through. That transaction wouldn’t have included the SNY network, either. The Mets have recently been valued at $1.6 billion without SNY in the mix, writes McEnery, who hears that the idea of Cohen purchasing the team still isn’t off the table. A source told him “he’s the only one that makes sense” as a possible buyer.

Rothbaum, meanwhile, was part of the $1.2 billion bidding for the Marlins in 2017, but the team ended up going to a group headed by Bruce Sherman and Derek Jeter. If Rothbaum does eventually land the Mets, it’s possible one of Jeter’s former teammates could be a member of his ownership group. There has been talk of Alex Rodriguez and fiancee Jennifer Lopez owning some portion of a Rothbaum-led Mets franchise.

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Latest On Michael Conforto’s Oblique Injury

By Steve Adams | April 27, 2020 at 9:43am CDT

Not long before the league shut down due to the ongoing pandemic, Mets right fielder Michael Conforto sustained an oblique strain that rendered him unlikely for Opening Day. The diagnosis came on March 11, just over two weeks from the since-postponed Opening Day, and the Mets didn’t provide a concrete timetable for Conforto’s expected return. The team still hasn’t put forth an official update on Conforto’s status — the indefinite delay to the season likely eliminated any urgency or obligation to do so — but the New York Post’s Mike Puma reports that Conforto is taking “regular” batting practice and appears to be largely back up to speed.

It’s been close to seven weeks since Conforto incurred what the club diagnosed as a Grade 1 strain of his right oblique. Grade 1 strains — the least severe on the scale — often sideline players for around a month or a bit more, although every injury situation is of course unique to the player in question. Still, it’s reasonable to expect based on his workout status and that historical context that Conforto would’ve been back up to speed by now. And it certainly stands to reason that whenever (or if) play is able to resume in 2020, that he’ll be ready to go for a second, abbreviated “spring” training camp.

The 27-year-old Conforto will be expected to play a pivotal role in the Mets’ offense, hitting in the heart of the order alongside the likes of reigning Rookie of the Year Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, J.D. Davis and a hopefully resurgent Robinson Cano. Conforto, the No. 10 overall pick in the 2014 draft, has solidified himself as the everyday right fielder and a well-above-average offensive contributor in parts of five seasons in Queens. He made his first All-Star team in 2017 and, over the past three years, has posted a combined .257/.363/.492 slash (129 wRC+, 131 OPS+) with 88 home runs, 74 doubles and three triples. He agreed to an $8MM salary this winter in his second trip through the arbitration process and remains under club control through the 2021 season.

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New York Mets Michael Conforto

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Latest On Potential Sale Of Mets

By Jeff Todd | April 23, 2020 at 8:21pm CDT

Even as a global pandemic rages, threatening the 2020 MLB season and leaving a murky economic outlook for the game of baseball, the Wilpon family continues to pursue a sale of the Mets. Indeed, it seems the desire has only increased since the collapse of a deal earlier this year with minority owner Steve Cohen.

The Wilpons would surely like to be able to reanimate that agreement, which crumbled just before the scope of the coronavirus crisis became evident. Now, as Thornton McEnery and Josh Kosman of the New York Post report, the Mets are feeling the pinch of the shutdown with the revenue spigot turned off.

Despite that apparent motivation, the Wilpon family isn’t willing to part with the profitable SNY sports network in the deal, per the report. That guaranteed cash flow would obviously be of particular interest under the circumstances, though that’s also the motivation for keeping it.

The Wilpons have reportedly set a $2.6B asking price — without the franchise control strings that had been involved in the Cohen agreement but also sans SNY. Most chatter suggests that’s now a fanciful figure under the dire economic circumstances, though as ever the market will provide the answer.

There’s even now some banter around the idea that Alex Rodriguez and fiancee Jenifer Lopez could benefit from the Wilpons’ tough spot. The celebrity duo seems to be taking serious steps towards a real bid. The Post reports that they could team up with former Marlins bidder Wayne Rothbaum to land the New York franchise. It’s anyone’s guess how this situation will develop over the coming weeks, but the stage is obviously set for a rather interesting process with quite the cast of characters.

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A-Rod, J.Lo Take Step Towards Compiling Bid For Mets

By Jeff Todd | April 21, 2020 at 3:15pm CDT

April 21: Rodriguez and Lopez approached Miami businessman Jorge Mas about joining their group, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link), but the 57-year-old MasTec chairman declined the offer. Mas previously headed up his own group in hopes of purchasing the Marlins before the Derek Jeter/Bruce Sherman group won that bidding.

April 20: When the concept was first mentioned, it wasn’t clear whether Alex Rodriguez was seriously interested in headlining a bidding group for the Mets. But he and pop singer/fiancee Jenifer Lopez have recently taken at least one notable step towards a potential play for the franchise, Scott Soshnick of Variety reports.

Rodriguez, much like predecessor Barry Bonds, finished his playing days with one of the most impressive but deeply stained resumes in baseball history. Performance-enhancing drugs tarnished both players, though A-Rod has taken quite a different path since hanging up his spikes. With a series of major media roles, he has crafted a familiar post-PED profile.

Precisely what sort of bidding group might be compiled isn’t clear, but A-Rod and J.Lo have retained JPMorgan Chase to see about putting one together. There was never any doubt that the celebrity couple would need to participate with other, yet wealthier investors to take over the Mets. At last look, the current Wilpon family ownership group had yet to mark down its $2.6B sticker price for the organization.

It’ll certainly be interesting to see whether this story has legs — not just because of the obvious potential for gossip-rag fireworks. The Mets have had their issues over the years, but it’s awfully rare to see big-city teams hit the market. It seems all but inconceivable that the franchise value won’t take a hit in light of the coronavirus pandemic — whatever the long-term outlook, there’ll obviously be a major near-term operational shortfall — but whether and to what extent remains for the market to decide.

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Does Baseball Have Its Next Zobrist?

By Jeff Todd | April 17, 2020 at 4:54pm CDT

You tend to hear talk of “The Next [insert player’s name]” involving guys whose careers change something about the way we think about a sport. It’s often the earth-shaking stars — Babe Ruth, Michael Jordan, Lawrence Taylor types. But not always.

In baseball, we’ve heard talk for years of “The Next Ben Zobrist” or “Team X’s Ben Zobrist.” It’s one of those things that you tended to understand when you heard it. Zobrist embodied something new and different: he was a high-end, star-level performer masquerading as a regular old utility guy. Moving around the diamond, featuring a plate-discipline-driven offensive skillset, and playing in Tampa Bay … it took some time for Zobrist to make it on the map. But once he finally got the recognition he deserved, he became the archetype of a new breed of player.

While the rest of the league caught on to the idea of moving guys around the diamond more liberally, we haven’t yet seen a single player match Zobrist as a Swiss Army knife that’s actually really good at all its functions over a sustained, multi-season span. Now, as Zobrist rides off into the sunset, Jeff McNeil of the Mets promises to change that …

The then-Devil Rays originally landed Zobrist from the Astros — in exchange for Aubrey Huff — way back in the early days of MLBTR (July of 2006). Some guy named Tim Dierkes wrote up the trade, characterizing Zobrist as a “solid but not spectacular shortstop prospect” of the sort who’s a “good guy to have around, gets on base, but not a star.”

Thankfully, Tim’s readers stuck with him despite that whiff. (I doubt I’ve had any of those, so … no need to go back and check, thanks.) In truth, the description was plenty fair at the time. It took a while for Zobrist to emerge.

Zobrist was a mess in his first two MLB seasons, putting up -1.7 rWAR and -1.9 fWAR cumulatively for the Tampa Bay organization. When the club dropped the devil from its name in 2008, Zobrist’s age-27 season, his angelic side emerged. He earned his way back for another shot and showed quite well in a 62-game run.

The next year opened with Zobrist as an obvious choice for the MLB roster. He ultimately emerged as an outright star … on paper, at least, while awaiting recognition … by turning in 599 plate appearances of .297/.405/.543 hitting with 27 home runs and nearly as many walks (91) as strikeouts (104). And he did so while appearing at every spot on the diamond aside from the battery (in addition to taking a turn at DH).

Like his forefather, McNeil was a legitimate but non-elite prospect when drafted. (The former went in the sixth round, the latter in the twelfth.) Neither player was hyped much on his way up the ladder; in both cases, they showed excellent plate discipline and polished hit tools … but little in the way of home run power.

The skillsets are rather similar, as are the timelines. Actually, having recently celebrated his 28th birthday, McNeil is a bit ahead of Zobrist’s curve. And his own versatility is proving equally useful to the Mets as Zobrist’s did to the Rays.

McNeil lined up mostly at second base when he was first called upon in 2018. He graded rather well there and could certainly have just been kept at the position for the long haul. But the Mets had other ideas. As they cooked up a surprising swap for Edwin Diaz, the Mets reportedly discussed McNeil with the Mariners. Fortunately for the New York org, it didn’t ultimately have to put him in. (Ill-conceived though the trade was, as we recently explored on YouTube, losing McNeil would’ve made it an even greater calamity.) But adding Robinson Cano meant bumping McNeil off of second base. He did have a lot of experience at the hot corner on the farm, but McNeil had spent very little time in the outfield. As it turned out, McNeil handled more 2019 frames on the grass than on the dirt, grading out as a capable defender no matter where he was thrown

While the glovework is what primarily spurs the comparison, there’s a lot connecting these two at the plate as well. McNeil is rather more dependent upon his ability to maintain a really lofty batting average to get on base. While he rarely strikes out, he’s not as handy at drawing walks as was Zobrist. But with a .321 batting average through 815 career plate appearances … so far, so good.

While McNeil had ramped up his power output in his breakout upper-minors showing in 2018 — thus forcing his way up in the midst of a busted Mets campaign — it was hard to know if it’d carry forward. He hit only three dingers in his first 63 games and 248 plate appearances in the majors. But McNeil launched 23 long balls in 567 trips to the dish in 2019, his first full big league campaign. That’s not an overly impressive tally in the streamlined-orb era, but it does suggest that McNeil can find a way to expand his contact skills into loft when the offensive environment supports that kind of approach. Zobrist never came within seven long balls of his first full-season tally, though that certainly didn’t stop him from producing a ton of value at the plate.

Why McNeil and not some other would-be Zobrists? Well, to this point, McNeil owns a 141 wRC+ at the plate — figures reminiscent of Zobrist’s monster early output. Whit Merrifield has perhaps the best claim, and he’s quite a good player in his own right. But he’s also a different beast — rather less bat (109 career wRC+) but with greater value on the bases. David Fletcher has versatility on his side, but he’s not even an average overall hitter over the same approximate span as McNeil. Likewise, Brock Holt doesn’t have a consistent record at the plate. Tommy Edman and Cavan Biggio each had early success, but neither has completed a full MLB season.

So … will the comparison hold? Zobrist took a bit of a step back at the plate in his second full MLB season but rebounded soon thereafter. And he continued to deliver multi-faceted value until he ran out of gas at the tail end. All said, Zobrist delivered 44.5 rWAR and 44.4 fWAR over this 14-year career.

McNeil has a long way to go to reach those levels of overall productivity. Statcast numbers suggest he was a bit fortunate last year, when he carried a .355 xwOBA and .385 wOBA. But even with a bit of a step back, we’d be looking at a high-quality offensive performer who (like Zobrist) contributes in the field and on the bases. Though McNeil is presently slated to line up at third base for the Mets, that could still evolve over time. Perhaps he’ll even end up reprising his ever-shifting 2019 role for certain seasons. Whether or not it’s ultimately utilized, that flexibility will help immensely when it comes to managing the roster during and between seasons.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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MLBTR Originals New York Mets Ben Zobrist Jeff McNeil

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Quick Hits: Metrics, Wilmer, Draft, Short Season

By Jeff Todd | April 13, 2020 at 9:06pm CDT

Even in the absence of baseball, there are plenty of interesting things being written about the game. Here are a few recent favorites …

  • Defensive metrics are now widely circulated, but we lack broad-based understanding of how to value them. At Baseball Prospectus, Jonathan Judge and Sean O’Rourke provide an interesting examination of the relative strengths and weaknesses of varying systems. The BPro FRAA measure turns out quite well in measuring outfielders, while Statcast’s OAA metric performs best in the infield. It’s not for the statistical faint of heart, but you’ll want to read the whole article (or at least its full conclusion section!) to gather up the necessary nuance.
  • MLB.com’s Anthony Castrovince provided a fascinating oral history of the 2015 trade deadline swap that would’ve sent Carlos Gomez from the Brewers to the Mets for Zack Wheeler and Wilmer Flores — an agreed-upon trade that fell apart in controversial and very public fashion. It’s essential reading for any hot stove aficionado, featuring a trove of recollections of many of the key actors. By happenstance, we recently did our own examination of the butterfly effects of that non-trade.
  • The MLB draft will go forward in 2020, albeit in a modified form. It remains to be seen just how many rounds will be held, but there are sure to be less players chosen than usual. And with amateur spring sports cut short, teams haven’t had recent looks at many prospects. That makes prior scouting assessments all the more important to teams looking to navigate a one-off amateur intake situation. Baseball America has released its updated top-400 ranking of draft prospects, featuring all the names that have moved onto and up the board most recently.
  • We don’t yet know whether we’ll have a season or what one would even look like, but there’s no question the 2020 campaign will be shortened if it’s held at all. At Fangraphs, Craig Edwards examines the volatility of relief pitchers and how that could play into a ~half-season campaign. While it’d be tougher than ever to predict performance, Edwards notes that it may actually be even more important to carry a slate of highly capable relievers in a short-season format, particularly if the postseason tournament is expanded as part of the (sure-to-be) unusual schedule that is ultimately arranged.
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The Mets’ Disastrous Trade For Edwin Diaz & Robinson Cano

By Tim Dierkes | April 9, 2020 at 1:59am CDT

The Mets’ trade for Edwin Diaz and Robinson Cano could hardly have gone worse in the first year. But how was the blockbuster deal viewed at the time? MLBTR’s Jeff Todd explores this huge Mets-Mariners swap in today’s video.

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MLBTR On YouTube New York Mets Seattle Mariners Edwin Diaz Jarred Kelenic Robinson Cano

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These Players Can Exit Their Contracts After 2020

By Connor Byrne | April 9, 2020 at 12:54am CDT

No matter if a Major League Baseball season takes place in 2020, there are certain players who will be in position to decide whether to exit their current contracts next winter. Whether it be by way of an opt-out clause or a mutual option, here’s a look at the players who will be able to choose to take their chances in free agency…

Opt-Outs

Back when the Marlins extended outfielder Giancarlo Stanton on a historic pact worth $325MM over 13 years in 2014, they included a one-time opt-out for next winter. Stanton has put up at least one phenomenal season since he signed that deal – he won the NL MVP and hit 59 home runs in 2017 – but injuries have hampered him on a regular basis. He’s now a member of the Yankees, who acquired him in a December 2017 deal, but Stanton played in just 18 games last season. He’ll still be owed $218MM for seven years after this season, and for at least the time being, it’s very tough to think of Stanton leaving that money on the table to test free agency.

Designated hitter J.D. Martinez, a member of the Yankees’ archrival in Boston, will have two years and $38.75MM remaining on his contract after this season. He’ll be 33 then, and will continue to be someone who’s known as a defensive liability, so should be opt out? It’s up for debate. The big-hitting Martinez remains an offensive standout, but his production last season fell (granted, he did still slash .304/.383/.557 with 36 home runs in 657 plate appearances). He subsequently chose not to opt out after last season, as doing so would have cost him his $23.75MM salary for this year.

One of Martinez’s former Tigers teammates, outfielder Nicholas Castellanos, will also have to choose whether to revisit free agency next offseason. Castellanos is another defensively challenged slugger, one whom the Reds guaranteed $64MM over four years this past winter. He’ll be 29 by the time the 2021 season rolls around, and by saying goodbye to his Reds pact, he’d be leaving $48MM on the table (including a $2MM buyout in 2024). It’s not easy to determine whether that will happen; some of it depends on how well Castellanos fares in 2020, if a season occurs. Carrying over the tremendous production he posted late last season after the Cubs acquired him from the Tigers may make Castellanos more inclined to try his luck on the market again, but his output at the plate has been more good than great throughout his career.

Mutual Options

For the most part, mutual options don’t get picked up. Either a player’s so effective that he opts for free agency or he’s not useful enough for his team to exercise the option. Rockies first baseman Daniel Murphy and reliever Wade Davis are among those who have mutual option decisions waiting after the season, but they’ve struggled in the club’s uniform so far. With that in mind, Murphy’s on track for a $6MM buyout (as opposed to a $12MM salary), while Davis figures to receive a $1MM buyout instead of a $15MM payday.

Brewers outfielder Ryan Braun ($15MM mutual option, $4MM buyout), Diamondbacks right-hander Mike Leake ($18MM mutual option, $5MM buyout) and Cubs lefty Jon Lester ($25MM mutual option, $10MM buyout) could also find themselves looking for new contracts next winter. The same goes for Mets reliever Dellin Betances, though it’s tougher to say in his case. The former Yankee barely pitched at all season on account of injuries, and if there isn’t a season in 2020, would he turn down a guaranteed $6MM in 2021? And would the Mets buy him out for $3MM? That’s one of the many interesting questions we could face next offseason.

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Arizona Diamondbacks Boston Red Sox Chicago Cubs Cincinnati Reds Colorado Rockies MLBTR Originals Milwaukee Brewers New York Mets New York Yankees Daniel Murphy Dellin Betances Giancarlo Stanton J.D. Martinez Jon Lester Mike Leake Nick Castellanos Ryan Braun Wade Davis

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