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Yankees Had Pre-Lockout Interest In Michael Conforto

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Prior to the lockout, the Yankees had interest in outfielder Michael Conforto, according to The New York Post’s Mike Puma (Twitter link).  The Bronx Bombers join the Rockies and Marlins as the only teams publicly linked to Conforto’s market, though over a dozen teams reportedly checked in on the former All-Star around the start of the free agent period.

The possibility of Conforto jumping from the Mets to the Yankees creates some natural Big Apple intrigue, plus Conforto would seem like a good fit in the Yankees’ lineup.  The Bombers are short on left-handed bats, and though Conforto slots in most naturally as the new everyday left fielder, he can also play right field (in the event of an injury or just a DH day for Aaron Judge) or even center field in a pinch, should Aaron Hicks run into more injury woes.

The short porch at Yankee Stadium has been a boon to many a left-handed hitter, and it could help Conforto bounce back from an ill-timed down year just as he was on the verge of free agency.  Conforto hit .232/.344/.384 with 14 homers over 479 PA — still above average (101 OPS+, 106 wRC+) production, though well behind the numbers he posted from 2015-20.

Conforto may have been hampered by a hamstring strain that cost him five weeks on the injured list, and teams will surely also note that Conforto’s 2021 Statcast numbers were largely unchanged from his career norms, apart from a drop in barrels and barrel rate.  Still, the Yankees or any other interested clubs surely have some concern over guaranteeing a big multi-year contract (and giving up a draft pick, since Conforto rejected the Mets’ qualifying offer) to player coming off a rather underwhelming season.

With that platform year in mind, there was speculation that Conforto could be open to a shorter-term contract with an opt-out clause, or perhaps just a straight one-year deal.  Such an arrangement would allow Conforto to quickly re-enter free agency next winter on what he certainly hopes will be on the heels of a stronger 2022 season, not to mention a normal offseason that won’t be interrupted by a lockout.  Conforto is represented by the Boras Corporation, and Scott Boras is no stranger to unique contracts (such as the swell-opt) that allow his clients both some flexibility and the possibility of locking in more longer-term money.

The Yankees have done plenty of business with Boras in the past, and in fact another Boras client in Gerrit Cole represents the last QO-rejecting free agent the Yankees signed without regard to the draft pick compensation.  Naturally, there is a vast difference between Cole and Conforto’s situations, and thus the Yankees likely have some wariness about surrendering their second-highest 2022 draft pick and $500K in international bonus pool money in exchange for signing Conforto.

That said, if Conforto was open to a shorter-term deal, he could fit into the Yankees’ reported preference for such contracts.  New York offered a one-year, $25MM pact to another QO free agent in Justin Verlander before Verlander re-signed with the Astros, and the Yankees’ reported post-lockout plan is to monitor the shortstop market to see if any major names (i.e. the still-unsigned Carlos Correa or Trevor Story) could be amendable to a shorter-term arrangement.  It stands to reason that the Yankees could expand this strategy beyond just shortstops, and to any prominent free agents like Conforto who can address other areas of need on the Bombers’ roster, while still not tying the club to a lengthy commitment.

Yankees Hire Hensley Meulens As Assistant Hitting Coach

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The Yankees are bringing a familiar face back to New York as the team’s new assistant hitting coach, as the club announced that Hensley Meulens has been hired for the job. (The Curacao Chronicle first reported Meulens’ appointment over the weekend). The position has been briefly filled by Eric Chavez earlier this winter, before Chavez left the Yankees to become the Mets’ chief hitting coach.

Meulens is no stranger to the Bronx, as he spent five of his seven MLB seasons playing with the Yankees (from 1989-93).  He was also one of the candidates interviewed for the last Yankees’ managerial vacancy, before the club hired Aaron Boone in December 2017.

After the Yankees parted ways with former hitting coaches Marcus Thames and P.J. Pilittere after the season, Yankees GM Brian Cashman said he planned to add a third hitting coach to the mix, a nod to the recent trend for larger and more specialized coaching staffs around baseball.  Dillon Lawson was promoted to the role of hitting coach and Casey Dykes was named assistant, and since neither Lawson or Dykes played pro ball, New York was reportedly focused on hiring a former Major League veteran to add some on-field experience to the staff.  Chavez fit the description, and Meulens brings both his playing experience as well as a lengthy coaching resume.

Meulens spent 10 seasons on the Giants’ coaching staff, serving as both the hitting coach and bench coach under Bruce Bochy.  Meulens also spent a single season as the Mets’ bench coach in 2020, and spent time as a coach in the minors in the Orioles and Pirates organizations from 2003-2008.

This resume has put Meulens on the radar for several managerial openings over the years, as he interviewed with not only the Yankees, but also the Twins, Reds, Mets, Red Sox and Giants over the years.  Given his long stint in San Francisco, there was some sense that Meulens could be Bochy’s heir apparent in the manager’s job, though he moved onto his bench coach role with the Mets after the Giants instead opted to hire Gabe Kapler as skipper.

Brett Gardner Planning To Play In 2022

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Brett Gardner indicated last October that he wanted to return to the Yankees for another season, and almost five months later, the free agent outfielder’s stance hasn’t changed.  Joe Bick, Gardner’s agent, told The New York Post’s Joel Sherman that his client was still preparing to play in 2022, and “would obviously prefer to stay with the [Yankees] the entirety of his career.”  It isn’t a Bronx-or-bust situation, however, as Bick said that Gardner is open to playing for another club.

After 14 seasons in the pinstripes, Gardner is still putting up respectable numbers even as he approaches his age-38 season.  Gardner was a 1.4 fWAR player over 140 games and 461 plate appearances last year, with his strong baserunning and decent left field/center field glovework offsetting a below-average (90 OPS+, 93 wRC+) slash line of .222/.327/.362.  Gardner retained his good eye at the plate, finishing in the 92nd percentile of all players in walk rate.  On the down side, Gardner delivered his sixth consecutive season of subpar hard-contact numbers, finishing well below the league average in hard-hit ball percentage, barrels, and barrel percentage.

As Sherman notes, most of Gardner’s offensive struggles took place early in the season, and before the league-mandated crackdown on doctored baseballs.  Gardner had only a .507 OPS over his first 137 plate appearances last season, and then a much more solid .768 OPS over his final 324 PA.

It is also possible that Gardner might have been more productive if the Yankees had more flexibility in choosing when to deploy the veteran.  Instead, Gardner ended up playing in 140 games due to a variety of injuries to other New York outfielders.  While the Yankees figure to make some kind of move to their current outfield mix, they could simply opt to bring back a known quantity in Gardner, either alongside a more notable addition or maybe as the veteran complement to a younger outfielder (i.e. Estevan Florial) the Yankees hope can break out as a capable big leaguer.

The Bronx Bombers have re-signed Gardner to one-year contracts in each of the last three winters.  His one-year, $12.5MM deal for the 2020 season carried a 2021 club option that was declined, and his most recent contract (a one-year, $5.15MM pact) had a twin option.  Gardner had the first choice of whether or not to accept a $2.3MM player option for 2022, and if declined, the Yankees could then decide on a $7.15MM club option with a $1.15MM buyout.  Both Gardner and the team declined the options, sending Gardner to the open market once again.

If Gardner did indeed look elsewhere for his next deal, he’ll face a lot of competition in the post-lockout signing frenzy.  Teams may prefer younger (and cheaper) outfield depth options than a 38-year-old, though on the flip side, some clubs might appreciate the chance to get an experienced veteran into their clubhouse.  The Phillies and Marlins have each been speculatively mentioned as potential fits for Gardner, as both teams have needs in the outfield and Gardner has longstanding ties to Phillies manager Joe Girardi and Marlins CEO Derek Jeter from their time together in New York.

Latest On Carlos Correa

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Going into the offseason, there were many parallels between the top two free agents, Carlos Correa and Corey Seager. Both were shortstops reaching free agency at the age of 27 and coming off excellent platform seasons. Seager, along with agent Scott Boras, secured a ten-year, $325MM contract from the Rangers prior to the lockout. Correa, however, did not sign before transactions were frozen and then hired the Boras corporation to represent him in January. Once the lockout is lifted, his continued search for a contract will be one of the top storylines to follow. Joel Sherman of the New York Post takes a look at some of the options, including the Dodgers, Yankees, Blue Jays, Tigers and Cubs, while Ken Rosenthal and Corey Brock of The Athletic, look into the fit with the Red Sox and Mariners, respectively.

The Dodgers, of course, had Seager as their shortstop in recent years and just saw him depart for the Rangers. The expectation has been that they were comfortable enough with that loss because they could rely on Trea Turner to take over at short. If the Dodgers were to then pivot to Correa, however, that would likely involve Turner moving over to second base, much like he did when he and Seager were on the roster together after he was acquired from the Nationals at last year’s trade deadline. Since Turner is just one year away from free agency, signing a long-term deal with Correa could be a way to proactively address the shortstop void one year before it’s absolutely necessary. This scenario seems to have been already considered by the Dodgers’ brass, as Sherman reports that they offered Seager a $275MM deal before he signed with the Rangers. However, he also notes that it might not be as simple as swapping Correa in for Seager, as Correa’s role in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal might not go over so well with fans of the Dodgers, since they were defeated by that now-infamous team in the 2017 World Series.

That same issue is present with another reported suitor, the Yankees, as they were felled by the Astros in the 2017 ALCS. But Yankees’ general manager Brian Cashman has previously stated that the reaction of the fans “is not going to enter my calculus right now.” Since Gleyber Torres was moved to second base last year, it was expected that the Yankees would be major players in this year’s shortstop market. However, they may be willing to eschew a big splash, preferring to target a short-term stopgap option to hold down the position until it’s taken over by one of their prospects, either Oswald Peraza or Anthony Volpe. It’s also possible that this is merely a posture for negotiating purposes and that the club may emerge as a genuine suitor for Correa. Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets that they did check in with Correa prior to the lockout, but seemed to prefer Seager. Since Correa was reportedly looking for a contract slightly above what Seager eventually got, it may be difficult for a deal to come together.

The Blue Jays have less of an obvious need for Correa, given the presence of Bo Bichette at short. Sherman opines that the club could sign Correa and then bump Bichette to either second or third, but then downplays the possibility of them dishing out a contract nearing Correa’s asking price. Given the fact that they were reportedly in the mix for Seager prior to the lockout, the possibility can’t be ruled out entirely. The sign-stealing situation clearly isn’t an issue for the Jays, as they’ve already signed George Springer, Correa’s teammate in Houston. But even if they do have the payroll to make a big splash after the lockout, they may use it to make a run at Freddie Freeman instead.

The Tigers have long been considered a speculative fit for Correa, given the fact that their manager is A.J. Hinch, who previously managed Correa in Houston. However, they already made a big investment at shortstop when they signed Javier Baez prior to the lockout. Although Baez played some second base with the Mets last year in deference to Francisco Lindor and could theoretically do the same again, it still would be shocking to see them double down in such an aggressive fashion. Sherman also speculates that the Cubs could be a dark horse here. The club was primarily focused on tearing down last year, trading away most of the core pieces from their previous competitive window, including Baez, Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo. Since the offseason began, they have been surprisingly active in making additions, bringing on Marcus Stroman, Yan Gomes and Wade Miley. However, those players were all brought aboard with short-term commitments and pivoting to the type of lengthy deal that would be required to sign Correa seems unlikely at this stage.

As for the Red Sox, Rosenthal lays out a scenario where Correa takes over as their shortstop given that his defense is far superior to that of Xander Bogaerts, who could be shuffled over to second base. However, he also points out that, given the lockout-shortened Spring Training to come, there will be less time for Bogaerts to develop his skills at a new position than there would be in a more normal year, perhaps making the plan too awkward to implement successfully. After this season, Bogaerts can opt-out of the three years and $60MM that will be remaining on his contract, something that he seems likely to do if he has another healthy and productive season. Signing Correa now could be a way for Boston to preemptively replace Bogaerts, but as Rosenthal points out, the club hasn’t signed a free agent contract larger than $14MM since Chaim Bloom became the club’s chief baseball officer. Suddenly dropping $300MM on the table would be a huge departure in strategy. However, it’s exactly because of that avoidance of significant commitments that the club’s future payroll is fairly blank. If Bogaerts does indeed opt out after this season, that would leave Chris Sale as the only serious commitment on the books.

For the Mariners, Brock doesn’t believe it likely that there’s a match here. However, he points out that, if Correa is interested in going to Seattle, they have the money to make it happen. The club’s payroll for the year is currently around $87MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. From 2015 to 2019, the club’s annual budget hovered in the $120-160MM range, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. That leaves plenty of breathing room, if the club is willing to push up to those spending levels again in an attempt to build on last year’s 90-win campaign. The team’s president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto previously stated that the club wouldn’t supplant J.P. Crawford as the team’s shortstop, but it’s hard to imagine that strategy is so etched in stone that they wouldn’t consider adding a talent like Correa if the stars aligned for them to do so.

Clearly, there are many ways Correa’s market could play out once the lockout ends. With the freezing of transactions and contract negotiations, we can’t really know the intentions of any of these parties until that ice breaks and dominos start falling again. Due to the compressed timeline that will eventually exist between the signing of a new CBA and the start of the season, this will all have to play out in an expedited fashion. And with Boras also representing many other high-profile free agents like Bryant, Nick Castellanos, Michael Conforto, Carlos Rodon and more, that figures to make the situation all the more frenzied.

Is Austin Wells' Future At Catcher Or Another Position?

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Since Gallo ended up being traded to the Yankees at the deadline, it remains to be seen if the Padres could revisit a more streamlined version of a Hosmer trade with the Rangers once the lockout is over, with Hassell perhaps included as a sweetener to convince Texas to absorb a larger chunk of Hosmer’s salary.  Of course, the equation has now changed quite a bit for a Rangers team that has already added Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, and Jon Gray in a pre-lockout spending spree.  While the Rangers still have payroll space, they might prefer to spend on a player who can more readily help them contend in 2022.  Hosmer has been roughly a league-average hitter over his last four seasons, and Texas already has a left-handed hitting first baseman in Nathanial Lowe who might be a better candidate to out-perform Hosmer at the plate (and at a fraction of Hosmer’s price tag).

  • With Gary Sanchez’s future a constant topic of discussion in the Bronx, many Yankees fans see Austin Wells as a potential Sanchez replacement behind the plate as early as the 2023 season.  However, the proverbial “catcher of the future” might not necessarily remain as a catcher, according to Yankees VP of player development Kevin Reese.  “Depending on where some of our other guys are, there might be an opportunity to get him some reps (at other positions)….Then we might have to get a little bit creative to keep his bat in the lineup.  But none of that is a concern about his catching,” Reese told The New York Daily News’ Kristie Ackert.  Wells has been seen as a potential candidate to move to first base or a corner outfield spot even before the Yankees drafted him 28th overall in 2020, and while one AL scout feels a position change will still happen, he credited Wells for improving his throwing arm and his framing.  Wherever he ends up on the diamond, Wells has shown signs that his bat will play at any position — Wells batted .264/.390/.476 with 16 homers over 469 plate appearances in his first pro season (at the A-ball and high-A levels), and then turned heads with a big performance in Arizona Fall League action.

Yankees Notes: O’Neill, Infield, Beck

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The Yankees announced yesterday that they’ll retire Paul O’Neill’s No. 21 this season on Aug. 21. “The Warrior” won four World Series rings in the Bronx, manning right field and serving as a formidable force in the heart of many stacked Yankees lineups throughout their most recent run of dominance in the American League. O’Neill spent nine seasons as a Yankee, spanning 1993 to 2001, batting a combined .303/.373/.492 with 185 home runs. A four-time Yankees All-Star who garnered MVP votes in each of those four seasons, O’Neill also thrived in the postseason with the Yankees — evidenced by a .282/.355/.459 output and 26 extra-base hits in 304 plate appearances.

A couple more notes out of the Bronx…

  • Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News takes a look at the Yankees’ unsettled infield mix, noting that Gleyber Torres’ regression both at shortstop and with the bat leave the team with a good bit of uncertainty. DJ LeMahieu tells Ackert he’s comfortable playing at any of first base, second base or third base, but his bat best fits at second if LeMahieu’s own regression at the dish cannot be fully recovered from. Torres did post a .300/.372/.443 line in 19 games after the Yankees finally cut the cord on his time at shortstop late last season, though opinions surely vary on whether that was correlation or causation. Regardless, the downturns at the plate for both Torres and LeMahieu are troubling for a team that still needs to address its need at shortstop and is also trying to figure out who’ll man first base for the 2022 season.
  • Right-hander Brendan Beck, the Yankees’ second-round pick from the 2021 draft, will miss most (if not all) of the 2022 season after quietly undergoing Tommy John surgery last summer, ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel reports (Twitter link). The Stanford product had been gearing up for his pro debut in A-ball when he incurred the injury. Beck, 23, notched a 3.15 ERA with a 32.6% strikeout rate and 5.9% walk rate in 108 2/3 frames in his final season with Stanford. Baseball America ranked him 12th among Yankees farmhands on their midseason prospect rankings last summer, but his pro debut will now likely be on hold until the 2023 season, at which point he’ll be 24 years old. While that hardly makes it too late for him to develop as expected, it’s a considerably older starting point than most prospects get on their pro careers.

AL Notes: Royals, Boone, Yankees, Tigers, Hernandez

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Many of the Royals’ best pitching prospects are returning from injury-shortened seasons, yet as MLB.com’s Anne Rogers writes, most of these young arms are back at the club’s minor league camp in good health.  The most prominent of these names is Asa Lacy, the fourth overall pick of the 2020 draft and a consensus top-40 prospect heading into the 2021 season, though Lacy’s stock has dropped a bit after a rough debut year.

The left-hander posted a 5.19 ERA over 52 innings in high-A ball, with a strong 33.3% strikeout rate but also a garish 17.3% walk rate.  Discomfort in his throwing shoulder sidelined Lacy for a good chunk of the season, though he felt well enough to pitch 7 2/3 more frames during Arizona Fall League action, with mixed results.  Lacy delivered a 2.35 ERA and 15 strikeouts over that smaller sample size, but still issued six walks.  It isn’t uncommon for players (even those without injury concerns) to have some trouble adjusting to their first taste of minor league ball, and both Lacy and the Royals are hopeful this was just a bump in the road of Lacy’s development.

Some other items from around the American League…

  • The Yankees and manager Aaron Boone are still looking at candidates to become the club’s third hitting coach, Joel Sherman of The New York Post writes.  When last we heard of the Yankees’ search, the Bronx Bombers were hoping to land a former MLB player in the role — neither hitting coach Dillon Lawson and assistant hitting coach Casey Dykes played pro ball.  (Eric Chavez was initially hired for the job but then headed crosstown to become the Mets’ new hitting coach.)  How close the Yankees might be to finding that new coach is unknown, as Sherman indicated that a hire could come this week, or the team might just stick with two hitting coaches if they can’t find a good fit for that third position.  The hitting coach search is just of several topics broached within a wide-ranging interview with Boone about the manager’s tenure in the Bronx, the challenges of the lockout, and keeping the staff prepared for what might be a rushed Spring Training.
  • Wilkel Hernandez threw his first bullpen session at the Tigers’ minor league minicamp Sunday, Evan Petzold of The Detroit Fress Press writes.  The right-handed prospect hasn’t pitched since 2019 due to the canceled 2020 minor league season and then Tommy John surgery in October 2020.  Even despite this missed time, Hernandez (who turns 23 in April) still has four years of pro experience, after joining the Angels as an international signing in 2015.  Hernandez came to Detroit’s organization in December 2017, as one of two minors pitchers acquired from the Angels in exchange for Ian Kinsler.

Maybin Joins Yankees Booth

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  • Highly regarded fifteen-year big-league veteran Cameron Maybin, the tenth overall pick by the Tigers in the 2005 draft, will join the YES Network in 2022, reports Jack Curry of YES. The well-traveled outfield stalwart is expected to join the Yankees booth for about 40 games, where he’ll serve as as an analyst for his 2019 club. Maybin, who headlined the deal that sent Miguel Cabrera to Detroit in December 2007, appeared in nine games for the Mets last year, logging an .036/.182/.036 line in 33 trips to the plate. For his career, he slashed a much more palatable .254/.323/.374 while providing steady glovework in the outfield, primarily in center. Maybin announced his retirement via tweet in January.

Yankees Notes: Judge, LeMahieu, Bowman

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Aaron Judge is headed into his final year of arbitration eligibility, with the slugging outfielder on track to be one of next offseason’s top free agents. Judge, who’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $17.1MM salary, has expressed openness in the past to working out a long-term deal with the Yankees and avoiding the free market altogether.

Judge recently reiterated his willingness to sign an extension, although he didn’t sound as though he felt any pressure to get a deal done. In an appearance on Ryan Ruocco’s and C.C. Sabathia’s R2C2 podcast, the 29-year-old was asked about the possibility of signing a long-term deal. “If we get an extension done at some point before the season starts, that’d be great,” Judge replied. “I’d be completely honored to be able to wear pinstripes for a couple more years. But if it doesn’t happen and this is my last year, I had a lot of great memories. … It’s all in God’s hands. It’s going to work out the way it’s supposed to.”

Judge didn’t explicitly state he’d be unwilling to negotiate an extension in-season, although some fans may read his mention of “before the season starts” as an implication he’d prefer to avoid talks dragging into the regular campaign. In any event, it seems likely the Yankees front office will open talks with his representatives at PSI Sports Management at some point between the end of the lockout and Opening Day. Earlier this offseason, general manager Brian Cashman suggested the front office was interested in the possibility of keeping Judge from hitting the open market.

Some more Yankees tidbits:

  • DJ LeMahieu underwent sports hernia surgery shortly after the season, but it doesn’t seem that’ll have much of an effect in 2022. LeMahieu told Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News that he rehabbed for a few weeks before returning to batting practice. The 2020 batting champ should be a full-go for Spring Training, whenever that begins. LeMahieu quipped to Ackert that he could be ready for the regular season within two days but more seriously opined that a four-week ramp-up period will be necessary. Whenever games get underway, LeMahieu will be looking to bounce back from an uncharacteristically ordinary showing. He hit just ten home runs across 679 plate appearances last year, with his .268/.349/.362 line checking in as exactly league average output by measure of wRC+. That’s far from the excellent .336/.386/.536 mark he put up from 2019-20, form he’ll obviously hope to recapture this year.
  • Minor league Spring Training is underway, with players not on teams’ 40-man rosters unaffected by the ongoing lockout. Former Cardinals and Reds reliever Matt Bowman isn’t currently a union member, as he’s in camp with the Yankees on a non-roster deal. Bowman, who underwent Tommy John surgery in September 2020, signed a two-year minors contract with the Yankees last offseason. After spending all of 2021 rehabbing, he’s fully recovered and in minor league camp, writes Dan Martin of the New York Post. Bowman logged 181 1/3 frames of relief between 2017-20, pitching to a 4.02 ERA/3.86 SIERA. Whenever the lockout concludes, the right-hander will try to carve out a middle innings job in the Yankees bullpen.

8 Post-Tommy John Pitchers Who’ll Impact Next Year’s Market

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We’ve grown accustomed to seeing headline after headline indicating that a pitcher is slated to undergo Tommy John surgery in today’s game. The procedure has become so commonplace, in fact, that it’s no longer surprising to see teams guarantee multi-year deals to rehabbing pitchers who’ll be sidelined for a full season of that contract as they work back from the injury. Such deals have produced varying levels of success in the past. Nathan Eovaldi’s two-year deal with the Rays worked out great; Drew Smyly didn’t pitch for the Cubs and posted a 6.24 after being traded to the Rangers.

Heading into the 2022 season, there are a handful of notable pitchers who were either signed under just that circumstance or are now playing for a contract on the heels of a Tommy John surgery that, hopefully, is more or less in the rearview mirror. A strong rebound will position any of this bunch either as a prominent member of next winter’s free-agent crop or, in some cases, to have a lucrative 2023 club option picked up. Here’s a look at a handful of Tommy John recoveries that could have a notable impact on next year’s market.

Starting Pitchers

Mike Clevinger: A marquee addition by the Padres at the 2020 trade deadline, Clevinger made only four regular-season starts and a one-inning postseason cameo before requiring Tommy John surgery in the 2020-21 offseason. San Diego, knowing he’d miss the entire 2021 season, signed him to a two-year, $11.5MM deal that paid him $2MM during his rehab season but will more heavily compensate him in 2022, now that he’s expected to be back to full strength. It was the second Tommy John procedure of Clevinger’s career, as he also had the surgery as a minor leaguer back in 2012.

There’s little questioning Clevinger’s talent, as the now-31-year-old righty was one of the most effective starters in all of baseball from 2017 until the time of his injury in 2020. In 489 1/3 innings over that stretch, Clevinger posted a 2.96 ERA while punching out 28% of his opponents against a 9% walk rate. Among big league pitchers with at least 400 innings thrown during that time, Clevinger ranked seventh in ERA and 14th in FIP (3.39). That said, he’s also only reached 130 innings in a big league season on one occasion, when he threw an even 200 frames in 2019.

That relatively limited workload, coupled with this being Clevinger’s second Tommy John procedure, will surely impact his free agency next winter to an extent. That said, a strong and healthy season out of the righty will still position him as one of the top arms on next winter’s market. Clevinger, teammate Joe Musgrove, Sean Manaea and Noah Syndergaard are among the more prominent free agents still in their early 30s next winter (to say nothing of older veterans with contract options or opt-outs, such as Jacob deGrom, Justin Verlander and Charlie Morton).

James Paxton: Paxton isn’t necessarily playing for a free-agent contract. He signed a complicated multi-year deal with the Red Sox that’ll pay him $6MM in 2022 before he can either trigger a $4MM player option or the team can exercise a pair of $13MM club options for the 2023-24 seasons. For luxury-tax purposes, that should be considered a two-year, $10MM deal, as the player option for 2023 is considered to be guaranteed money. Of course, there’s also the possibility that with a healthy season, the contract will effectively balloon to a contract that pays Paxton $32MM over a three-year term. The deal contains further incentives, as Paxton could boost those 2023-24 salaries by $250K apiece for reaching 12, 14, 16 and 18 starts.

It’s a heavily incentive-laden deal that speaks both to the considerable risk in signing Paxton and the considerable upside he’ll bring to Boston. A healthy Paxton is a high-quality big league starter, evidenced the career 3.50 ERA he carried into an injury-ruined 2020 season with the Yankees. Among the 149 big league starters to toss at least 200 innings from 2017-19, Paxton’s 30.1% strikeout rate ranked seventh, and his 7.3% walk rate was markedly better than league average. His 22.7 K-BB% was among the best in the game, as were his strong ratings in the eyes of fielding-independent metrics like FIP (3.26) and SIERA (3.45).

Since that 2019 season, however, Paxton has undergone back surgery, missed significant time with a forearm strain and eventually undergone Tommy John surgery. Earlier in his career, he’d dealt with lat, forearm and pectoral injuries, among a litany of smaller-scale issues.

There’s probably a scenario where Paxton pitches well enough to turn down his $4MM player option even if the Red Sox decline the effective two-year, $26MM option they hold over him. (We saw a comparable situation play out with Yusei Kikuchi earlier in the winter.) That said, the ideal scenario for Paxton and the Sox is that he pitches well enough to reestablish himself as a quality MLB hurler and boost those two club options to $14MM apiece in total value in the process.

Paxton underwent his Tommy John procedure in late April, so he’s not likely to be ready to help the Red Sox at the beginning of the season. By late May or June, however, he could represent a boost to a rotation that is not exactly shy of other injury concerns.

Justin Verlander: Even though he hasn’t pitched since undergoing Tommy John surgery, Verlander still got a hefty $25MM guarantee from the Astros — plus a conditional $25MM player option that kicks in if he reaches 130 innings pitched. The two-time Cy Young winner and former AL MVP has a track record that speaks for itself; when we last saw Verlander in a full, healthy season, he was edging then-teammate Gerrit Cole for the 2019 AL Cy Young Award.

Verlander has said in the past that he hopes to pitch into his 40s, and he has a good chance at doing so if he can bounce back this coming season. He’ll turn 39 later this week, and if he goes out and looks anything like he did from 2015-20 — 1010 innings, 2.94 ERA, 29.7% strikeout rate, 6% walk rate — Verlander will likely turn down that $25MM option, or at least leverage it into a new multi-year arrangement with the ’Stros. He was just promised a $25MM guarantee despite having thrown only six innings since Opening Day 2020, so there’s little reason to accept that he’d take a year and $25MM on the heels of a healthy return effort at Minute Maid Park.

Noah Syndergaard: Perhaps it’s not quite fair to label Syndergaard as a Tommy John rehabber; after all, he did make it back to the mound with the Mets late in the 2021 season — albeit for only two innings. That said, this is Thor’s first full season back from that ligament replacement procedure, and he’ll be pitching for a big contract next winter from the moment he suits up in Orange County. Signed by the Angels to a one-year, $21MM contract, Syndergaard will be pitching with a team other than the Mets for the first time in his big league career.

It’s a hefty price to pay, particularly considering the fact that Syndergaard had rejected an $18.4MM qualifying offer, but his career to date is all the evidence needed to suggest that at his best, Syndergaard is plenty worth that gamble. He’s never walked more than 6.1% of his opponents in a given season and has never failed to strike out a batter per inning. Few pitchers can match Syndergaard’s blend of pure velocity, missed bats and impeccable command, and he manages all that while still turning in a ground-ball rate that’s well higher than the league average.

Syndergaard has always felt like he’s one step away from solidifying himself as a bona fide ace, and as Robbie Ray showed in winning the AL Cy Young Award this season, one dominant season for a player with this type of track record can result in a nine-figure payday if things break right. The market has already proven to value Syndergaard at more than $20MM per year, and given that he’d be 30 years old in 2023, it’s not hyperbole to suggest that he’s pitching for a $100MM contract this season.

Luis Severino: As with Syndergaard, Severino may not quite fit the criteria for this list. The 27-year-old (28 later this week, on the same day Verlander turns 39) returned to give the Yankees six innings out of the bullpen late in the 2021 season, and his protracted absence from the team’s pitching staff cannot be solely attributed to Tommy John surgery. Severino has also battled groin, shoulder and lat injuries along the way. That said, Severino really hasn’t pitched since undergoing Tommy John surgery in Feb. 2020, and it’s that operation that is the primary reason for his absence over the past two seasons.

Severino isn’t yet slated to hit the open market at season’s end — at least not before the Yankees make a call on a $15MM club option or a $2.75MM buyout. The resulting $12.25MM net decision would be a straightforward one for general manager Brian Cashman if Severino at all looks like his former self. From 2017-18, Severino gave the Yankees 384 2/3 innings of 3.18 ERA ball with outstanding strikeout and walk rates, prompting the team to sign him to a four-year contract extension that promised him $40MM.

That deal looked like a bargain for the team at the time but has since gone south, due largely to repeated injury woes. Severino made a combined 63 regular-season starts for the Yankees in 2017-18, looking every bit like a foundational piece to the pitching staff, but he’s combined for just 25 starts and another 18 relief appearances in the five seasons surrounding that brilliant run.

With a big season in 2022, Severino could still see that $15MM option picked up, and if he can remain healthy into 2023, he’d hit the open market heading into his age-30 season. There’s a long way to go before that scenario becomes reality, however.

Relievers

Tommy Kahnle: Signed by the Dodgers to a two-year, $4.75MM contract last offseason, Kahnle was never expected to contribute in 2021 — hence the backloaded nature of his contract, which will pay him $3.45MM in 2022. The hard-throwing righty only managed one inning for the 2020 Yankees, meaning this coming season will be the first since 2019 in which he’ll potentially pitch anything resembling a full workload.

The 32-year-old Kahnle has been inconsistent but has dominated more often than he’s struggled. From 2016-20, he logged a combined 3.48 ERA, 32.9% strikeout rate and 9.9% walk rate while averaging 97.1 mph on his heater. That includes a disastrous but also fluky-looking 2018 campaign in which he was tattooed for a 6.56 ERA in 23 1/3 frames. From 2016-20, Kahnle’s 32.9% strikeout rate ranks 17th among the 155 relievers to have thrown at least 150 innings, while his 15.9% swinging-strike rate is tied for sixth.

Kahnle’s Tommy John surgery came way back on Aug. 5, 2020, so there should be no restrictions on him by the time the season gets underway. He’ll be heading into his age-33 season next winter, and a return to his vintage form should position him as one of the top relievers on a free-agent market that is lacking in big-name right-handed relievers.

Ken Giles: Like Kahnle, Giles was signed by the Mariners — two years, $7MM — knowing full well that he would not pitch in 2021. Unlike Kahnle, his contract includes a club option for the 2023 season, which is valued at $9.5MM (with a $500K buyout).

Many of the same superlatives that apply to Kahnle apply even more so to Giles. His 18% swinging-strike rate, for instance, tops Kahnle and sits third among the 155 relievers who totaled at least 150 frames from 2016-20. His 3.33 ERA in that time is a bit more toward the middle of the pack, but Giles misses bats, induces chases outside the zone and throws as hard as nearly any reliever in the sport. He’s had a pair of 4.00-something ERAs sprinkled in amid a series of pristine marks throughout his big league career. Those two blemishes have coincided with spikes in his average on balls in play and dips in his strand rate.

On the whole, Giles is a power arm who can pile up strikeouts in droves. He’s a sometimes forgotten piece of the puzzle when looking at the 2022 Mariners and their hopes of contending, but he’ll join a deep bullpen mix that also features Diego Castillo, 2021 breakout closer Paul Sewald, former Marlins stopped Drew Steckenrider (who enjoyed a tremendous rebound in 2021) and the underappreciated Casey Sadler, who notched a 0.67 ERA in 40 1/3 innings last year.

A healthy Giles would very likely see that $9.5MM club option for the 2023 season picked up, and at his best, he’s a bargain at that price. If Giles is pitching well but things go south for the Mariners, teams will come calling at the trade deadline. Of course, the Mariners are hoping to be squarely in the postseason mix, and they’re likely not done with their offseason shopping just yet.

Jose Leclerc: Armed with a fastball in the mid to upper 90s, Leclerc’s ability to return to form (or his lack thereof) will have major implications for the Rangers moving forward. His four-year, $14.75MM contract extension includes a $6MM club option for the 2023 season and a $6.25MM option for the 2024 season. A rebound effort makes that 2023 option a no-brainer for the Rangers to pick up as they hope to ride a hyper-aggressive offseason into their next competitive window.

Leclerc, 28, has fanned just shy of a third of the hitters he’s faced so far in his big league career and has only allowed a dozen homers in 189 Major League innings (0.57 HR/9). His 14.9% walk rate is far too high, but he looked to be making considerable strides in that department in 2019 when he posted a sub-2.00 ERA, a 38.1% strikeout rate and an 11.2% walk rate. He’ll be a highly intriguing lottery ticket on next year’s market if he pitches poorly enough that the Rangers buy that option out (or if they do so on the heels of another injury). If he rebounds, he’ll be a bargain piece of an on-the-rise Rangers club in 2023-24.

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