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Mets, Phillies, Blue Jays Scouting Cubs/Diamondbacks

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The Mets, Phillies, and Jays – and potentially others – have scouts at the Diamondbacks/Cubs game in Chicago today, per Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (via Twitter).

That’s as good a place as any for deadline buyers to do their weekend shopping. Kris Bryant and Craig Kimbrel are the most notable names present, but there’s plenty of talent dotting Chicago’s roster. Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, and Zach Davies are the other veterans on expiring contracts, with Davies the most likely of the three to move.

The Cubs also stock affordable, veteran talent, both in the bullpen — where names like Ryan Tepera, Andrew Chafin, and Dan Winkler could help a contender — and in the lineup, where low-cost veterans like Patrick Wisdom, Matt Duffy, and Jake Marisnick could be worth a conversation as well.

The Diamondbacks figure to be an even more fervent seller, though without the high-end talent of the Cubs. Still, Eduardo Escobar continues to be a popular name as a power bat offering defensive versatility on an expiring contract. Asdrubal Cabrera represents a knock-off edition, though the veteran has proven an effective deadline addition before, and he brings a more patient approach with an 11.7 walk rate this season.

Joakim Soria has a 4.45 ERA/3.91 FIP in 28 1/3 innings and a lengthy track record of success. The 14-year veteran is making just $3.5MM, and he, too, will be a free agent at year’s end. He has six saves and 229 for his career, so any acquiring team can rest assured that he’ll keep his composure, if nothing else. The Mets, Phillies, and Blue Jays all need bullpen help and could turn to Soria if Kimbrel proves too rich.

The rest of the Dbacks’ bullpen consists mostly of castoffs or unproven youngsters. Bespectacled vet Tyler Clippard won’t be cowed by the moment, but he’s only recently off the 60-day injured list and has just one appearance on the season. Former Brewers and Rays right-hander Jake Faria is having a decent season — 4.19 ERA, 19 1/3 innings — and would probably come cheap.

Noe Ramirez is worth a look. The 31-year-old sports a 3.31 ERA/3.72 FIP in 16 1/3 innings, but he’s long been undervalued because of pretty severe splits. He has a 3.94 career xFIP and 20.4 percent K-BB% against same-handed hitters, versus a 5.04 xFIP and 9.4 K-BB% against lefties for his career. Deployed judiciously, Ramirez can absolutely add value to a contender.

Merrill Kelly and Caleb Smith could be targeted as back-end rotation upgrades, with Kelly having the better season of the two. Kelly has posted 2.0 fWAR in 20 starts covering 117 innings. He has a 4.46 ERA/3.88 FIP with a 46.2 percent groundball rate, 20.3 percent strikeout rate, and solid 5.5 percent walk rate. He’s also affordable at $4.25MM this year and controllable with a $5.25MM club option for next year.

Kelly will take the mound today. He’s generating “a ton of interest on the trade market,” per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter).

Smith is an extreme flyball pitcher controllable through 2023. With a 27.1 percent groundball rate for his career, he’s always going to be homer prone, but he’s nevertheless managed a palatable 4.38 ERA/4.64 FIP in 78 innings. Smith might be a better bet for a fringey contender looking towards the future, as his value lies at least as much in his controllability as it does his present ability to pitch in the back-end of a playoff rotation.

Phillies Looking At Fourth Starters, Bullpen Upgrades

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The Phillies may not have played as well as they’d hoped after an active first offseason under new front office leaders Dave Dombrowski and Sam Fuld, but they’re still a game over .500 and only three back from the lead in a division no one has run away with just yet. Given the context of their division and Dombrowski’s reputation as an aggressive, “win-now” type of executive, it should come as little surprise that he plainly indicated this week that he has no plans to trade away veteran pieces in the week-plus leading up to the July 30 trade deadline.

“We are contending,” Dombrowski told NBC Sports Philadelphia’s John Clark on his podcast this week. “…We’re not selling. We’re not in a position where we’re looking to move players off our team.”

Dombrowski declined to tip his hand as to specific areas he could upgrade, though he did note that the bullpen has again been inconsistent and that the team’s defense “is not our strength.” The first-year Phillies president of baseball ops also pushed back on the narrative that his team doesn’t have the prospects to make substantial upgrades. Dombrowski suggested that 2020 first-rounder Mick Abel isn’t likely to be moved but generally sounded open-minded about making moves to improve his club. Phillies fans, in particular, will want to give the entire interview a listen.

While Dombrowski would only vaguely indicate that the club can “get better in a couple areas,” Jayson Stark and Matt Gelb of The Athletic report that the team is targeting fourth and fifth starters to round out the rotation, as well as back-end relievers who can help shore up the team’s late-inning relief corps.

That meshes with Dombrowski’s assessment of the rotation in his interview with Clark. The former Expos, Marlins, Tigers and Red Sox baseball ops head lauded Zack Wheeler’s work and noted that when Wheeler, Aaron Nola and Zach Eflin are all pitching up to their capabilities, “you can beat anybody” in a short playoff series. Dombrowski also repeatedly praised lefty Ranger Suarez, who has recently emerged as a ninth-inning option and generally been effective since joining the club in early May. Suarez carries a 1.22 ERA, a 27.3 percent strikeout rate, and 8.4 percent walk rate and a 65.2 percent ground-ball rate in 37 innings.

One option of particular intrigue for Phillies fans could be former Philadelphia ace Cole Hamels. The free-agent lefty held a showcase for MLB teams last week, and Dombrowski confirmed to Clark that the Phillies attended the workout and threw the ball well. While candidly acknowledging interest in the lefty, however, Dombrowski also noted that he could be 30-plus days away from joining a big league rotation, as Hamels needs to go through the equivalent of a Spring Training buildup. That doesn’t provide the Phils or anyone else immediate help — and that’s something the Phillies could use with Eflin on the injured list at the moment.

With regard to specific trade targets, Dombrowski appears to still be casting a wide net and gauging asking prices throughout the league. Stark and Gelb write that the Phils have checked on “every closer who could be available” but aren’t limiting their search to current closers. The Phillies, like every other team, are cognizant of the fact that the next week could determine whether a few clubs operate as buyers or make some veterans available.

Dombrowski spoke about that tenuous balance with Clark, noting that it’d take something catastrophic (e.g. a 10-game losing streak) for the Phillies to sell. On the flip side, however, as a team looking to buy, that fine line being walked by so many other clubs could lead to players becoming available just before the deadline. “All of a sudden, [another team] loses three in a row, and somebody may be available that you weren’t anticipating to be available,” Dombrowski said to Clark.

There’s an argument that the Phillies (and other buyers) should simply act now rather than take the wait-and-see approach that is so prevalent throughout the game at the moment. But every front office is at the mercy of how much ownership will spend, and investing immediate resources only to find that a more desirable target is available a couple of days down the road is a risk when payroll isn’t unlimited.

Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez has the Phillies about $4.2MM from the $210MM luxury threshold. Stark, however, reports that the feeling among other clubs who’ve spoken with the Phillies about potential trades is that they’d be willing to cross that barrier for the first time in franchise history. That doesn’t mean Phils fans should assume there’s no limit to what Dombrowski can spend on outside acquisitions, but it’s a critical piece of context to consider as the deadline looms.

Looking around the league, there are plenty of fourth starter types available. Minnesota’s Michael Pineda, Colorado’s Jon Gray, Pittsburgh’s Tyler Anderson and Chicago’s Zach Davies are among the names available. There’s no need for the Phils to limit themselves to rental starters, either; Andrew McCutchen, Odubel Herrera, Archie Bradley, Chase Anderson, Matt Moore, Brad Miller, Vince Velasquez, Hector Neris, Brandon Kintzler and Matt Joyce are all coming off the roster at season’s end. The Phils still have $134MM committed to their 2022 books even with that large group of pending free agents, but this is a team that opened the 2021 season with a $197MM payroll and is now willing to add to it. Merrill Kelly, Matthew Boyd and Kyle Gibson are among the names available who could be moved even though they’re controlled through the 2022 season.

Phillies Activate Aaron Nola, Place Zach Eflin On Injured List

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The Phillies have reinstated starting pitcher Aaron Nola from the injured list to start this evening’s game against the Yankees. Rotation mate Zach Eflin landed on the 10-day IL with patellar tendinitis in his right knee in a corresponding move.

Nola landed on the COVID-19 IL on July 11 as a close contact of third baseman Alec Bohm, who had tested positive for the virus. (Bohm has also been cleared to rejoin the team, manager Joe Girardi told reporters — including Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer — but won’t be activated until he works himself back into game shape). That cost Nola his July 11 start, but he winds up only missing a single turn in the rotation thanks to the intervening All-Star Break.

It’s not clear precisely how long Eflin will be out, but the Phillies don’t believe his injury to be a long-term concern (according to Breen). That’s welcome news considering Eflin’s history of knee issues, which includes a season-ending 2016 surgery to repair the same patellar tendon.

The Phils can ill afford a long absence from Eflin, who’s been one of their more productive starters over the past couple seasons. The 27-year-old has a typically solid 4.17 ERA/3.79 SIERA across 105 2/3 frames this year. At 47-45, Philadelphia trails the Mets by just 2.5 games in the NL East, so a prompt return from Eflin is of critical importance.

Marlins, Starling Marte End Extension Talks; At Least Three Teams Interested In Trades

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Reports from earlier today indicated that Starling Marte rejected the Marlins’ offer of a three-year, $30MM contract extension, making it all the more likely that the outfielder would be dealt prior to the July 30 trade deadline.  Contract negotiations are now over between the two sides, according to The Miami Herald’s Craig Mish (Twitter links), as Marte didn’t want the talks to become a distraction for him as the second half of the season progresses.

MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter) adds the detail that the Marlins’ extension offer was greater than three years and $30MM, but regardless, it now seems that the team will focus on dealing Marte.  As one might expect, Marte is already drawing interest from multiple suitors, as Heyman writes that the Astros, Phillies, and Yankees are three of the teams who have been in touch with the Marlins about the former All-Star.

Marte would be an upgrade for just about any team, considering his impressive .288/.387/.443 slash line, seven home runs over 249 plate appearances this season (though Statcast hints at some regression).  In addition to his bat, the 32-year-old Marte also has 20 steals from 23 chances and he has displayed some impressive glovework in center field.

This is all music to the ears of outfield-needy teams like Houston, Philadelphia, and New York.  The Astros have gotten very solid results both offensively and defensively from Myles Straw and Chas McCormick up the middle, but there is no doubt Marte would represent a big upgrade.  For the Phillies and Yankees, center field has been a revolving door thanks to injuries.

In terms of contract, Marte is owed around $5.1MM of his original $12.5MM salary for the 2021 season.  This adds another wrinkle to the trade market, as Marte’s three known suitors are all very close to exceeding the $210MM Competitive Balance Tax threshold.  Marte alone could conceivably be added with a bit of maneuvering under the tax line, but that would eliminate pretty much all available payroll space for further trade needs like pitching.

Throughout the winter and into the season, the Yankees and Astros have in particular made several moves indicating that staying under the tax line (and avoiding an escalating repeater penalty) is a priority, though both Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner and Astros GM James Click recently stated that they would go over the CBT line in the right circumstance.  The Phils have never exceeded the luxury tax line, but owner John Middleton has said in the past that he would also be willing to make a tax payment for a difference-making addition.

An argument can certainly be made that Marte is such an addition, though it is also possible that he could be acquired in a trade that wouldn’t require any CBT overage.  The Marlins could be more willing to eat most or all of Marte’s salary if they were offered higher-caliber prospects, though then it becomes a question of just how much prospect value any of the three teams would want to surrender for a rental player.  Marte could also be included as part of a larger trade package that might see multiple players swap clubs, with perhaps a larger contract sent back Miami’s way as some kind of salary offset.

Scott Kingery Undergoes Shoulder Surgery

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Phillies’ infielder/outfielder Scott Kingery recently underwent surgery on his right shoulder to repair a torn labrum, according to Todd Zolecki of MLB.com. Kingery will be out of action for the remainder of this season, though Zolecki notes it’s hoped he’ll recuperate by next year’s spring training.

This marks yet another disappointing chapter in the story of Kingery and the Phils. The team signed Kingery to a six-year $24MM contract prior to the 2018 season, before he had even played a game in the big leagues. The hope at the time was to secure the services of a highly-touted prospect at team-friendly rates, before he made himself more expensive through his production.

Unfortunately, Kingery has never been able to deliver on his initial promise in a sustained manner, producing a meager slash line of .229/.280/.387 in 1,127 plate appearances over the past four seasons and getting outrighted off the roster last month. This latest injury only further dims any hopes of the club reaping any rewards from their initial leap of faith with Kingery. The aforementioned contract still guarantees him $6.25MM and $8.25MM for 2022 and 2023, respectively, along with $1.75MM in buyouts for three club options the Phils hold over Kingery for 2024-2026.

If there is any chance of the utilityman righting the ship in the next few years, the first step will be what sounds like a lengthy rehab process after a significant medical procedure.

Twins Reportedly Disinclined To Trade Players Controllable Beyond 2021

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The Twins have indicated to opposing teams they’re not keen on trading players under team control beyond this season, reports Buster Olney of ESPN (Twitter link). That’s not to say Minnesota’s cutting off talks on longer-term assets entirely, but it casts increasing doubt about the likelihood of stars like Byron Buxton and José Berríos — both of whom are controllable next season via arbitration — changing uniforms within the next couple weeks.

That’s a defensible and generally unsurprising position for the Twins front office to take. While the 2021 season has been a disaster for Minnesota, there’s little reason to think the club needs to embark on any sort of rebuild. The Twins won the AL Central in each of the last two years, and much of the core of those teams is controllable for 2022. At 39-52, the Twins are almost certainly not playoff-bound this season, but there’s enough talent on the roster to reasonably expect a bounceback next year.

The Mets and Cardinals are among the teams to have reached out to gauge Berríos’ availability. Both clubs have come away from those talks feeling the asking price to be extremely high, a reflection of Minnesota’s comfort hanging onto Berríos with an eye towards 2022.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported this week that the Twins had also recently opened extension talks with Buxton. Rosenthal suggested a Buxton trade could be a possibility if the two sides don’t agree on a long-term contract, but the upcoming offseason might be a more opportune time to market him to other clubs. That’d give the front office more than a couple weeks to field offers on the Gold Glover, and there’s still no clear timetable for Buxton’s return from a late June hand fracture. (If the Twins were to make Buxton available before July 30, the Phillies would be among the teams with interest, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network).

Berríos and Buxton are far from the only prominent controllable players on the Twins roster. Third baseman Josh Donaldson still has a pair of guaranteed seasons beyond the year (and a 2024 club option) on his free agent deal. The Mets were loosely linked to Donaldson last month, but it doesn’t seem those talks gained much traction.

Minnesota has a trio of productive, controllable relievers (Taylor Rogers, Tyler Duffey, Caleb Thielbar) who would draw attention from contenders, even though both Rogers and Thielbar have struggled this month. Given the year-to-year volatility of bullpen arms, there’s a case to be made the Twins should look to trade one or more of that group, but the front office certainly doesn’t have to do so. There’s never been much expectation of a deal involving Kenta Maeda, Max Kepler or Jorge Polanco, each of whom is under control through at least 2023 on extremely affordable contracts.

Even if the Twins wind up trading only impending free agents, they should still be active over the next two weeks. Michael Pineda’s strike-throwing acumen will make him a target for contenders in need of starting pitching, even as his swinging strike rate has taken a step backwards this season. The market for Nelson Cruz will probably be limited to American League clubs, but he remains an impact bat to plug into the middle of a lineup. Andrelton Simmons isn’t hitting much, but he’s still one of the game’s best defensive shortstops. Hansel Robles is an affordable middle relief target, and someone could take a flyer on Alex Colomé as a change of scenery candidate.

Minnesota’s disinclination to trade controllable players doesn’t entirely foreclose the chance of such a deal coming together. It remains possible another club meets the lofty ask for Berríos, and the front office probably wouldn’t be so absolute as to make a player like Buxton completely untouchable. But their broad reluctance to move long-term foundational pieces of the roster reinforces that the organization sees 2021 more as an aberration than as a suggestion their window of contention with that group is closing.

The Twins have ample financial flexibility moving forward, with just $49.3MM in guaranteed contracts on the books for 2022, in the estimation of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Minnesota looks likely to invest in the pitching staff this offseason and hope to get healthy, productive seasons from their still-strong position player group to contend next year in what might again be a relatively weak division.

Minor MLB Transactions: 7/17/2021

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The latest minor league moves from around the sport…

  • The Red Sox outrighted Austin Brice to Triple-A Worcester after the reliever cleared waivers.  Brice was designated for assignment yesterday to create roster room for Jarren Duran’s promotion to the big leagues.  Since this is the second time Brice has been outrighted off Boston’s 40-man roster this season, he had the option of opting for free agency, but the right-hander has apparently decided to remain with the Red Sox.  Over two seasons with the Sox, Brice has a 6.21 ERA over 33 1/3 innings.
  • The Red Sox have acquired right-hander Victor Santos from the Phillies, both teams announced.  The move officially completes the January trade that saw infielder C.J. Chatham dealt to Philadelphia way back in January.  Santos will report to Boston’s Double-A affiliate, and will change organizations less than a week after celebrating his 21st birthday.  The righty has looked good over 41 combined innings at high-A and Double-A ball this season, posting a 2.20 ERA and 24.24% strikeout rate while working exclusively as a starter in four Double-A outings.

Phillies Sign First-Rounder Andrew Painter, 10 Other Top Picks

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7:36PM: Painter signed for a $3.9MM bonus, MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki reports, landing under the $4,197,300 slot value.  As for Philadelphia’s other picks, MLB Pipeline’s Jim Callis reports that second-rounder Ethan Wilson signed for a $1,507,600, matching the slot price for the 49th overall pick.

6:15PM: The Phillies have made quick work of the top end of their 2021 draft class, announcing that they have come to terms with all 11 of their picks through the draft’s first 11 rounds.  This includes first-round pick Andrew Painter, the high school right-hander selected 13th overall.  No financial terms were announced for any of the signings — the 13th overall selection has an assigned slot price of $4,197,300.

Baseball America ranked Painter 15th on their list of prospects in this year’s draft class, while MLB Pipeline and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel each had Painter 18th, Fangraphs 22nd, and The Athletic’s Keith Law put the righty in 24th.  As McDaniel notes, the additional risk involved in drafting high school pitchers might be the only red flag against Painter, since “basically everything Painter…does grades as a 55 or 60, and the frame, delivery and feel all check out.”

To that point, Pipeline and BA’s grades give high marks to Painter’s four-pitch arsenal, headlined by a fastball that sits in the 93-97mph range and is already considered a plus pitch.  There could be more potential for future velocity since the 18-year-old is already either 6’6″ or 6’7″ and weighs between 210-230 pounds.  Painter’s control is also very highly regarded, which Baseball America notes is something of a rarity for a high school arm.

COVID Notes: 7/16/21

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The latest coronavirus-related news around baseball:

  • Before this afternoon’s doubleheader agains the Phillies, the Marlins placed outfielder Jesús Sánchez on the COVID-19 injured list. It’s not clear whether he tested positive for the virus; players can also land on the IL for experiencing symptoms or for viral exposure. Sánchez is hitting a solid .265/.315/.434 through 89 plate appearances this season.
  • The Phillies reinstated reliever Bailey Falter from the COVID-19 injured list this afternoon. The southpaw landed on the IL as part of contact tracing efforts last weekend after third baseman Alec Bohm tested positive for the coronavirus. Falter has tallied 17 2/3 innings of multi-inning relief across eight appearances this season.

Cole Hamels Holds Showcase For Interested Teams

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JULY 16: Twenty teams had representatives in attendance at today’s showcase, Heyman reports (Twitter link). The Angels and Cardinals were among the teams to send personnel, per reports from Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com and Katie Woo of the Athletic.

JULY 13, 3:59 pm: The Red Sox will also be in attendance, reports Rob Bradford of WEEI.

JULY 13, 2:51 pm: The Phillies and Mets will have scouts watching Hamels, according to Heyman (Twitter links).  The Yankees will also be in attendance, The New York Post’s Joel Sherman tweets.  As teams will inevitably be revealed as being part of this showcase, it should be noted (as Sherman does) that the Yankees and many clubs send evaluators to these showcases as a normal order of business.

JULY 9: Free agent left-hander Cole Hamels will hold a showcase in front of teams on July 16, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). The Dodgers are among the teams who will have personnel in attendance, reports Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times (on Twitter).

It has been a protracted stay in free agency for Hamels, who hasn’t signed anywhere since the 2020 season concluded. There was never any indication the veteran southpaw planned to sit out for all of 2021, though, and he was reported to be building up a throwing program last month.

Hamels essentially had a lost 2020 season. Signed by the Braves to a one-year, $18MM deal over the 2019-20 offseason, he dealt with shoulder soreness in Spring Training and then began the shortened season on the injured list with a triceps issue. Hamels returned to make one appearance in mid-September before landing back on the IL with a season-ending shoulder problem.

Before 2020, Hamels was a paragon of durability, tossing at least 130 innings in every season between 2006-19. He was also a model of consistency, never posting an ERA higher than 4.32 and allowing fewer than four earned runs per nine innings in eleven of those fourteen campaigns. He was still effective as recently as 2019, when he tossed 141 2/3 innings of 3.81 ERA ball with solid strikeout and walk rates (23.2% and 7.1%, respectively) with the Cubs. Between his track record and the volume of pitcher injuries around the league in 2021, there figures to be plenty of teams in attendance next week to gauge Hamels’ current form.

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