White Sox Discussing Lance Lynn With Rays, Dodgers
11:53am: The Sox and Rays are indeed discussing Lynn, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets, but a deal between the two parties is not yet seen as imminent. The Rays have interest in a number of starters and are in active talks on multiple starting pitchers.
Likewise, the White Sox aren’t locked in on the Rays alone as a potential trade partner for Lynn. Nightengale follows up by tweeting that the Dodgers remain interested in both Lynn and right-hander Lucas Giolito and continue to discuss both with the ChiSox.
With Dustin May out for the season and each of Clayton Kershaw, Ryan Pepiot, Noah Syndergaard and Walker Buehler on the injured list, the Dodgers have a trio of rookies (Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan, Michael Grove) behind Julio Urias and Tony Gonsolin in the rotation at the moment. All of the Dodgers’ Opening Day rotation members have been on the injured list at some point this season, so it’s only natural for them to explore upgrades — particularly as their collection of young starters continues to push their workloads to previously unreached levels.
9:49am: The White Sox and Rays are in active discussions on a trade regarding right-hander Lance Lynn, tweets Bob Nightengale of USA Today. The two teams have been exchanging names of potential minor leaguers in the swap.
Tampa Bay is one of the 10 teams on Lynn’s no-trade list, but talks have apparently advanced to the point where the White Sox have already approached him about the possibility of approving the deal. Nightengale adds that Lynn has informed the team he would waive that no-trade protection for a chance to pitch for a contending Rays club.
Lynn, 36, is in the second season of a two-year, $38MM extension he signed with the White Sox two years ago. The veteran right-hander was a durable an excellent pitcher for the Rangers and ChiSox from 2019-22, pitching to a combined 3.42 ERA with plus strikeout and walk rates in 571 innings during that time, but the 2023 season has been a struggle.
While Lynn is still missing bats at a high level (27.3% strikeout rate, 14% swinging-strike rate), he’s been more homer-prone this season that any point in his lengthy Major League career. The 6’5″ righty has yielded an average of 2.19 homers per nine innings pitched, which has contributed to what would be a career-worst 6.18 ERA on the season.
That mark is unsightly, of course, but Lynn has seen what’s surely an anomalous 21.5% of his fly-balls turn into home runs. That’s more than double his 10.1% career mark and nearly nine percentage points higher than the league average of 12.4%. Homer-to-flyball rate tends to stabilize over larger samples, and any team acquiring Lynn would surely be hoping there’s regression in that regard. That seems inevitable; Lynn’s current 21.5% homer-to-flyball rate would be the fourth-highest mark of any pitcher in the past decade. Furthermore, one can imagine that getting out of the homer-friendly Guaranteed Rate Field would help to alleviate those home run woes.
The Rays didn’t look like a team that’d need to acquire outside help for the rotation early in the year. Tampa Bay began the season in dominant fashion, but the Rays have seen Jeffrey Springs (Tommy John surgery) and Drew Rasmussen (flexor surgery) go down with season-ending injuries. Depth starter Josh Fleming is on the 60-day IL due to an elbow issue.
At present, the Rays are running out a strong quartet of Shane McClanahan, Tyler Glasnow, Zach Eflin and top prospect Taj Bradley. Lynn would slot into that group and give the Rays an upside play for the final spot in the rotation. At worst, he’d be a durable innings eater who could spare the bullpen and round out the rotation. At best, he could become the Rays’ latest pitching reclamation. Tampa Bay has a reputation for getting the best out of its pitchers — thanks to a combination of its renowned analytics department, advance scouting, coaching and player development — and if the Rays can get Lynn back into his 2019-22 form, he’d be a bona fide playoff-caliber starter.
Lynn’s contract contains an $18MM option for the 2024 season. There’s a $1MM buyout on that provision, making it a net $17MM decision. As it stands, he’s clearly trending toward a buyout, but with a big finish to the season it’s conceivable he could yet play his way into having that option picked up.
That’d be a steep price for the Rays of all teams, but Tampa Bay has shown increased willingness to spend in recent years. The Rays made a legitimate run at signing Freddie Freeman in free agency, reportedly putting forth a six-year offer in the $150MM range. They also extended Glasnow on a deal that’ll pay him $25MM next year and signed shortstop Wander Franco to an 11-year, $182MM deal. Even this past offseason’s signing of Eflin at three years and $40MM was a notable departure from the team’s typical stinginess on the open market.
Lynn is owed about $6.8MM of this year’s $18.5MM salary between now and the end of the season, plus at least that $1MM buyout on the option. Between that salary and his struggles with home runs, his trade value certainly isn’t close to where it might’ve been entering the season, but the Sox could sweeten their return by offering to pay down some or all of the remaining money he’s guaranteed in 2023.
Shohei Ohtani Drawing Widespread Trade Interest
The biggest question of this year’s trade deadline is whether or not the Angels will trade Shohei Ohtani. Unsurprisingly, several rival clubs are interested in acquiring his services, with Jeff Passan of ESPN connecting him to the Rangers, Dodgers, Orioles, Rays and Blue Jays. That’s in addition to reporting from yesterday connecting him to the Diamondbacks and Orioles.
The fact that several clubs are interested in Ohtani is hardly shocking, given that the superstar has played so well in recent years to make it a legitimate question as to whether he’s the greatest player of all time. He’s hit at least 34 home runs in each of the past three seasons, having already hit 36 this year for the league lead with still a few months to go. His overall batting line of .302/.398/.674 amounts to a wRC+ of 184, which also leads all major league hitters. In addition to that, he’s thrown 408 innings as a pitcher since the start of 2021 with a 2.98 ERA, including a 3.71 ERA in his 19 starts this year.
Given the unprecedented nature of his performance, it would be a shock if any contender weren’t interested in him, so it stands to reason that several of them are reportedly on the phone lines. Whether Ohtani can actually be pried loose from the Angels is an open question, however. Recent reporting has suggested that the club will be listening to offers but that a deal is still considered unlikely. Ohtani is an impending free agent but the Halos aren’t completely buried in the standings. Their 51-49 record has them 4.5 games behind the Blue Jays for the final playoff spot, but with the Yankees and Red Sox in between. FanGraphs pegs their playoff odds at 13.7% while Baseball Prospectus puts them at 13.2%.
Rival clubs will only be able to acquire a few months of Ohtani’s services, but the offers will likely still be robust. Since a player like Ohtani has never previously existed, it’s hard to know exactly how much clubs would be willing to relinquish in order to acquire him. But since he’s the most impactful individual player that any club could conceivably add, it’s possible the bidding goes to unexpected levels. Beyond his on-field talents, there would also be opportunities for increased ratings and merchandise sales, not to mention the ability to try to negotiate an extension with the two-way player. It seems highly unlikely he would forego the open market at this point, but the opportunity to start the conversation early surely has appeal.
The Rangers make a ton of sense for Ohtani, in that their rotation has lost Jacob deGrom and Jake Odorizzi to season-ending injuries. They also don’t have an everyday designated hitter and could easily accommodate Ohtani in their lineup. They are currently leading the American League West but the Astros are just two games back and Ohtani could go a long way to helping them fend off Houston. However, since they are in the same division as the Angels, lining up on a trade could be difficult. The Halos may not want to watch Ohtani thrive with their rivals, while the Rangers may have some hesitation about looking across the dugout at their former prospects for the next decade or so.
The Dodgers also make plenty of sense from a roster perspective. They currently have five starters on the injured list, including Clayton Kershaw, Dustin May, Walker Buehler, Noah Syndergaard and Ryan Pepiot. That’s forced them to bring up rookies like Bobby Miller, Michael Grove and Emmet Sheehan. The DH slot is usually taken by J.D. Martinez but he can at least play the outfield from time to time, a problem the club would likely be happy to work around. But the Angels may not prefer to send Ohtani across Los Angeles, given the public relations aspect. They and the Dodgers don’t compete in the same division, but they compete for customers and attention in the area, with the Angels usually the second fiddle to the Dodgers. Sending Ohtani to succeed in Dodger blue might be a bitter pill that they’d prefer not to swallow.
The other three clubs also make plenty of sense, given their tight American League East rivalry. The Orioles, Rays and Blue Jays currently occupy the top three spots in the division, separated by just 6.5 games. The Orioles have a 62-38 record but their rotation is clearly the weakest spot. Their starters have a collective 4.51 ERA that puts them in the bottom half of the league. They don’t have a clear DH either, often rotating various players through that spot.
The Rays actually have the strongest rotation ERA in the league, though that number may be skewed by their frequent use of openers. They certainly have a solid foursome in Tyler Glasnow, Shane McClanahan, Zach Eflin and Taj Bradley, but have lost Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen to season-ending surgeries while Josh Fleming seems likely to miss significant time as well. Given their fondness for versatile players, they could easily slot Ohtani into the DH role and move other players around as necessary.
The Jays have some rotation question marks, particularly in the case of Alek Manoah. He struggled badly enough in the beginning on the season to get optioned down to the club’s Florida Complex. He’s since returned and made three starts without much consistency. Hyun Jin Ryu is on a rehab assignment and could be back with the club shortly, rejoining Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, Jose Berrios and Yusei Kikuchi. The Jays use Brandon Belt as designated hitter most of the time but likely wouldn’t mind replacing him with Ohtani and figuring out a solution to that problem. The bigger issue might be their relatively weaker farm system compared to the other clubs listed here, as Passan lists them as a longer shot for that exact reason.
All in all, it’s still unknown how seriously the Angels are entertaining any offers coming their way. It’s important for them to do their due diligence so that they have all the information necessary to make the decision that is best for their organization, but that doesn’t obligate them to make a deal. The club starts a road trip tonight with three in Detroit, three in Toronto and then the first game of a series in Atlanta before the August 1 deadline. It’s possible that the results of those games will push the club in one direction or another, for the most significant decision of this trade deadline and arguably ever.
AL Central Notes: Lynn, Guardians, Twins, Turnbull
The two-year, $38MM extension that Lance Lynn signed with the White Sox in July 2021 also contained some partial no-trade protection, allowing Lynn to block deals to 10 teams per year. According to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, the 10 clubs on Lynn’s no-trade list are the Padres, Dodgers, Giants, Cardinals, Mets, Angels, Mariners, Yankees, Rays, and Blue Jays. Several of those teams are known be looking for pitching as the deadline approaches, though of Lynn’s 10 listed clubs, only Tampa Bay has been linked to the veteran right-hander to date.
This no-trade clause might not be much of an obstacle, as Rosenthal figures that Lynn would welcome the chance to join a contender. There is also an $18MM club option on Lynn’s services that figures to be bought out (for $1MM) by the Sox or a new team, considering that Lynn has struggled to a 6.18 ERA over 115 innings this season. Though home runs have been Lynn’s biggest issue, Rosenthal argues that joining a better defensive team would help Lynn’s fortunes, and some of his advanced metrics (like a 3.88 SIERA and a 27.3% strikeout rate) suggest that his ERA isn’t reflective of how well he has pitched in 2023.
More from around the AL Central…
- The Guardians are looking for a starting pitcher and a “complementary bat” at the deadline, president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti said during a recent edition of The Front Office on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM (Twitter links). Injuries have thinned out Cleveland’s pitching staff, but offense might still be the bigger need given how inconsistent the Guards’ lineup has been all season. However, Antonetti felt that the Guardians will helped by Bo Naylor getting regular playing time, as well as the revived bats of Josh Bell and Andres Gimenez. “If there’s an opportunity to add another complementary bat that can ideally add some versatility, contribute in the outfield or get some at-bats at DH, that might be a place where we could also look to improve,” Antonetti said.
- Twins chief baseball officer Derek Falvey shared his own wishlist during his own appearance on the Front Office (Twitter links), as Minnesota is looking at “ways to fortify the middle of” the bullpen, and possibly “more options late in the game.” Falvey also said the Twins would like to add a right-handed hitter to a mostly left-handed lineup, but he praised the contributions of Donovan Solano and Kyle Farmer (both righty-swingers) to the roster since Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton have “struggled at times.”
- Tigers manager A.J. Hinch told MLB.com’s Jason Beck and other reporters that Spencer Turnbull is lined up for rehab starts on Tuesday and Sunday with the Tigers’ high-A affiliate. Turnbull hasn’t pitched since May 6 due to neck discomfort, so he is already eligible to return from the 60-day injured list whenever he is fully ramped up. It has been another tough setback for Turnbull, who missed some of the 2021 season and all of 2022 recovering from Tommy John surgery.
Braves Claim Yonny Chirinos
5:14PM: The Braves announced the Chirinos claim, as well as two corresponding moves. Soroka was optioned to Triple-A, implying that Chirinos will be taking Soroka’s spot in the rotation. Atlanta also designated right-hander Seth Elledge for assignment, just a few days after Elledge’s contract was selected to the active roster. Elledge didn’t see any game action during his brief time in the majors before he sent back down to Triple-A yesterday.
3:42PM: The Braves have claimed right-hander Yonny Chirinos off waivers from the Rays. Chirinos was designated for assignment by Tampa Bay earlier this week.
After Tommy John surgery limited Chirinos to 18 1/3 total innings from 2020-22, he has seemed fully healthy in pitching 62 2/3 frames this year working in a variety of different capacities for the Rays. Chirinos has started four games, worked as a bulk pitcher (behind an opener) on multiple occasions, and also had a couple of traditional relief outings as a long man and mop-up man. He has a 4.02 ERA to show for his efforts, though his 5.34 SIERA is perhaps more reflective of Chirinos’ overall performance. The righty has benefited from a .244 BABIP and he isn’t missing many bats, with only an 11.8% strikeout rate.
These unfavorable secondary metrics could be why the Rays chose to DFA Chirinos, though for a team with as many pitching injuries as Tampa Bay, it still counted as something of an eyebrow-raising move. As MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald noted last Monday when Chirinos was put on waivers, service time could have been a factor, as Chirinos has surpassed five years of MLB service time and now cannot be optioned to the minors without his permission. This might have been a breaking point for a Rays team that often shuffles pitchers back and forth from Triple-A Durham — in fact, Chirinos himself was twice optioned earlier this season before he hit the five-year threshold.
Chirinos’ ability to work in several different roles would’ve made him a good fit on many clubs, but Atlanta is a particularly fitting landing spot given the Braves’ own pitching depth issues. The Braves could see Chirinos as something of a replacement for Kolby Allard, who sent on the 60-day IL earlier this week due to nerve inflammation in his left shoulder.
Allard is one of a whopping eight pitchers on Atlanta’s 60-day IL, including such prominent arms as Max Fried, Kyle Wright, Jesse Chavez, and Nick Anderson. Manager Brian Snitker said today that Fried might be one more rehab start away from returning to the active roster, but with so many other pitchers still out, Chirinos give the Braves flexibility. Atlanta could ease Fried or Wright back into action by teaming them with Chirinos in a piggyback capacity, or Chirinos might be paired with Michael Soroka to manage innings.
Overall, Chirinos is a pretty nice pickup for the Braves to make even before they delve into further moves prior to the trade deadline. There isn’t much financial cost (roughly $515K in remaining salary), and Chirinos is still controlled through the 2024 season via arbitration.
NL East Notes: Candelario, Marlins, Pham, Phillies, Dominguez, Hoskins
The Marlins have interest in Nationals third baseman Jeimer Candelario, as USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes that Miami views “Candelario as a perfect fit.” With a cumulative -0.9 bWAR posted by Marlins third basemen this season, no team has received less from the hot corner than the Fish, as Jean Segura‘s resurgence over the last few weeks haven’t been enough to erase his very rough performance over the first three months. Segura could move into a utility role in the event of a Candelario trade, as Luis Arraez is a lineup fixture at second base, Jorge Soler is primarily a DH, and the hot-hitting Garrett Cooper is the primary first baseman.
Candelario is one of the more obvious trade candidates available heading into the deadline, as the Nationals are out of the race and Candelario will be a free agent after the season. After a poor 2022 season with the Tigers, Candelario has bounced back nicely to hit .254/.333/.474 with 15 homers over 390 plate appearances with Washington. He is owed roughly $1.8MM in remaining salary this season, which is a modest sum anyway but shouldn’t be a problem for the Marlins — owner Bruce Sherman has promised financial “resources” for deadline additions. Of course, Sherman’s statement came before Miami suffered through an eight-game losing streak out of the All-Star break, but the Fish got back into the win column with today’s 3-2 win over the Rockies.
More from around the NL East…
- Speaking of possible inter-division trades, Bob Nightengale also writes that the Phillies “would love to land” Mets outfielder Tommy Pham. The Phillies are known to be looking for right-handed hitting, with an outfielder as an ideal fit if Bryce Harper is able to settle in as a first baseman. Pham has an excellent .272/.356/.475 slash line and nine home runs over 250 PA with New York this season, making him an interesting rental target for several teams. The 46-52 Mets appear to be poised to be deadline sellers in some fashion, and pending free agents like Pham are the likeliest players to be moved as the Amazins look to reload for 2024. However, Pham has missed New York’s last few games with a groin injury, though he is expected to be back in action Tuesday.
- Along these same lines, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times figures the Rays will check in on Mets reliever David Robertson. Around $3.6MM remains on the one-year, $10MM free agent deal Robertson signed with New York last winter, and the veteran righty is a known quantity in Tampa after pitching for the Rays in 2021.
- Seranthony Dominguez is set to throw a second rehab outing today, as the Phillies right-hander might be nearing a return from the 15-day injured list. According to Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer, Dominguez might be activated as early as Monday if he is feeling good after today’s Triple-A game. Dominguez has been sidelined since mid-June due to an oblique strain. Coffey also provided an update on Rhys Hoskins, who will be traveling with the Phils on road trips for the remainder of the season as something of a mental release from the grind of his rehab. Hoskins tore his left ACL during Spring Training and is expected to miss the entire season, but the first baseman is still hoping for a possible return if the Phillies make the playoffs.
Rays Outright Javy Guerra To Triple-A
TODAY: Guerra cleared DFA waivers and accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A, the Rays announced.
JULY 19: The Rays have designated right-hander Javy Guerra for assignment and recalled righty Calvin Faucher from Triple-A Durham, per a club announcement.
It’s been an eventful eight months for Guerra, who was traded from Tampa Bay to Milwaukee back in November, then designated for assignment and traded back to the Rays in April. This is now the second time the Rays have designated him for assignment since reacquiring him; he cleared waivers back in May and chose to accept an outright assignment at the time.
In 11 innings with the Rays this year, Guerra has posted a 4.09 ERA but issued more walks (13) than strikeouts (nine). The former top infield prospect, who converted to the mound five years ago, boasts a heater that averages 98 mph but doesn’t miss nearly as many bats as one would expect from someone with plus velocity. He’s fanned just 15% of his opponents against a 14.3% walk rate while pitching to a 6.43 ERA in 63 innings at the Major League level.
The Rays will have a week to trade Guerra or attempt to pass him through outright waivers. As was the case back in May, he’d have the option of rejecting an outright assignment in favor of free agency even if he does clear.
Rays Place Taylor Walls On 10-Day Injured List
The Rays placed infielder Taylor Walls on the 10-day injured list due to a left oblique strain. The placement is retroactive to July 21. Vidal Brujan was called up from Triple-A to take Walls’ place on the active roster.
One of the many multi-position players on Tampa Bay’s roster, Walls’ versatility and solid defense has been an asset, as he has toggled between second base, third base, and shortstop this season. The majority of Walls’ playing time has come against right-handed pitching, but the switch-hitter has had much better numbers against southpaws — an .854 OPS in 73 plate appearances against left-handers, as opposed to a .603 OPS in 205 PA against righties.
Any kind of production is welcome considering that Walls hit only .183/.281/.288 over 642 PA during the 2021-22 seasons, his first two MLB campaigns. Some big numbers in the first six weeks of the 2023 season made it seem like Walls was poised for a breakout, but a long cold streak has put his season-long slash line at .211/.315/.360 over 279 PA. That translates to a 96 wRC+, and if Walls can at least establish a floor for himself of near-average offense and multi-positional defensive value, he’ll certainly continue to find a place for himself in the majors. His offensive profile also consists of an excellent walk rate, and very strong baserunning ability — Walls has stolen 20 bases in 21 attempts this season.
Even on a Rays team that seemingly has good young infielders constantly coming up the minor league pipeline, Walls’ semi-emergence has earned him regular duty on a World Series contender. Unfortunately, this oblique strain will now put a halt to Walls’ playing time, and the severity of the injury has yet to be revealed. A Grade 1 strain would likely sideline Walls for a few weeks, while a higher-grade strain could potentially threaten his season altogether.
Brujan is also a switch-hitting utilityman, so he figures to step right into Walls’ role in the second base/third base mix. Jonathan Aranda is also at Triple-A, and the Rays could potentially call on any of Curtis Mead, Greg Jones, or Osleivis Basabe if they feel any of the infield prospects are ready for their MLB debuts. Depending on the severity of Walls’ injury and what options are available at the trade deadline, Tampa could possibly pursue some more infield depth prior to August 1. Given the Rays’ woeful 4-12 record in July, even a bigger-name position player addition might be required to spark a team whose big lead in the AL East has evaporated.
Notable Draft Signings: 7/21/23
The Nationals officially reached agreement on a roughly $9MM deal with the second overall pick this afternoon, while the Red Sox got contracts done with their top two selections. Some other recent notable signings (scouting reports from Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, ESPN and The Athletic):
- The Tigers have a deal with Competitive Balance Round A selection Kevin McGonigle, reports Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline (Twitter link). He takes home a $2.85MM bonus that beats the $2.31MM associated with the #37 pick. A left-handed hitting infielder from a Pennsylvania high school, McGonigle had been committed to Auburn. He’s regarded as a potential plus hitter, one of the most advanced bats in the high school class. Listed at 5’11”, he’s not the most overtly projectable player. Evaluators suggest there’s a chance he moves from shortstop to second base. McGonigle was viewed as a back of the first round talent by most evaluators and his above-slot bonus reflects that stock.
- The Twins are signing 34th overall pick Charlee Soto for $2.4814MM, Callis reports (on Twitter). That matches the slot value for the Competitive Balance Round A selection. A 6’5″ righty from a Florida high school, Soto ranked between 28th and 41st on the referenced pre-draft lists. He’s credited with a mid-upper 90s fastball and two potential plus secondary offerings in his slider and split. Soto is regarded as one of the higher-variance players in the class because of the demographic risk associated with all high school pitchers and his inconsistent command. He’d been committed to Central Florida but instead gives Minnesota a high-upside developmental flier in the low minors.
- The Rays reached agreement with 19th selection Brayden Taylor on a $3.8801MM bonus on Wednesday, according to Callis (Twitter link). That matches the pick’s slot value. Taylor, a left-handed hitting third baseman from TCU, hit .308/.430/.631 with 23 homers, a lofty 16.8% walk rate and an 18.7% strikeout rate during his final season in Fort Worth. Generally viewed as a top 15 talent in the class, Taylor is seen as one of the safer players available. He’s regarded as a solid defender at third base with excellent strike zone awareness and solid batted ball data.
- The Dodgers agreed to an underslot deal with first-round selection Kendall George on Wednesday, per Callis (on Twitter). He received a $1.85MM bonus that’s below the $2.36MM slot value. Los Angeles’ first pick was dropped 10 spots to 36th because they exceeded the third luxury tax tier in 2022. George, a left-handed hitting outfielder from a Texas high school, had been committed to Arkansas. He’s an elite runner whose speed gives him a chance to be an impact defensive center fielder. George’s offensive profile is built on contact, as he has well below-average power.
Rays Place Francisco Mejía On IL With MCL Sprain
3:55pm: Mejía is expected to miss between three and six weeks, per Ackert.
1:20pm: The Rays announced that they have placed catcher Francisco Mejía on the 10-day injured list with a left knee MCL sprain, recalling fellow backstop René Pinto in a corresponding move.
Mejía, 27, departed yesterday’s game after apparently injuring himself on a play at the plate. Manager Kevin Cash later informed reporters, including Kristie Ackert of the Tampa Bay Times, that the catcher would undergo an MRI. It seems that the imaging found the sprain, which will keep Mejía out of action for at least 10 days. The Rays haven’t provided any further information about the specific length of time they’re expecting him to be out.
The Rays have been using a tandem of Mejía and Christian Bethancourt behind the plate this year. Mejía is hitting just .227/.258/.400 in 50 games for a wRC+ of 81 this year. He’s not considered an especially strong defender, having a grade of -4 Defensive Runs Saved this year while also getting negative marks for his framing both from FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus.
All that being said, it’s still not a great development for the Rays. Pinto is the only other catcher on the 40-man roster, and he’s now been thrust up to the big leagues to join Bethancourt. He was placed on the minor league injured list on June 7, with Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times relaying that it was due to a bruised hand. He only just started rehabbing from that IL stint, appearing in two Complex League games in recent days. He’ll now have to quickly jump to the big leagues, where he has just 25 games of experience, hitting .213/.241/.325 last year.
Bethancourt is having a bit of a disappointing season as well, having hit .252/.283/.409 last year but dropping to .230/.254/.392 here in 2023. His defensive grades are stronger than Mejía’s but it’s been a relatively weaker position on a Rays club that’s strong overall. Midseason catching upgrades can be challenging since an incoming backstop has to learn an entirely new pitching staff on the fly, but the Rays might have to give it some thought. Even before Mejía’s sprain, it seemed like a part of the club that could be upgraded but perhaps now even more so, depending on the severity of the injury and how much time they expect him to miss.
The Rays dominated the American League East for much of the first half of the season but have slipped recently. They are now one game back of the Orioles, though they still hold the top Wild Card spot, 4.5 games ahead of the Blue Jays and Astros. That leaves them in position to be buyers ahead of the upcoming trade deadline, which is on August 1.
Astros, Rays Showing Interest In Michael Lorenzen
Michael Lorenzen is one of the top rental starting pitchers who could move between now and the August 1 trade deadline. The Rays and Astros are among the contending clubs that have shown interest in the Tigers’ righty, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (Twitter link).
It stands to reason Tampa Bay and Houston are just two of a number of teams monitoring the market for the Detroit hurler. Lorenzen is having a strong season, working to a 3.49 ERA through 17 starts. He tossed seven scoreless innings to earn a win over the Royals this afternoon and hasn’t allowed a run in any of his past three appearances.
Lorenzen began the season on the injured list after straining his groin in Spring Training. Since returning in the middle of April, he’s been a quality starter for Detroit. He has allowed two or fewer runs in 11 of his 17 outings. While his 19.1% strikeout rate is a couple points below league average, he has kept his walks to a modest 6.5% clip. Lorenzen has negligible platoon splits and mixes four pitches with regularity.
While it’s not the most overpowering profile, the first-time All-Star looks a solid mid-rotation arm for contenders. Tampa Bay and Houston have both made clear they’re surveying the rotation market. The Rays have limited depth behind the front four of Shane McClanahan, Tyler Glasnow, Zach Eflin and rookie Taj Bradley. They’ve lost Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs for the season and been without southpaw Josh Fleming for an extended stretch.
Tampa Bay has been tied to a number of rental starters. Lance Lynn, Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty and Marcus Stroman (the latter of whom has a $21MM player option for next season) are all reportedly on Tampa Bay’s radar. The Rays seem to be casting a wide net as they look to solidify their final rotation spot in their battle for the AL East title.
It’s a similar story in Houston. Luis Garcia underwent Tommy John surgery, while Lance McCullers Jr. will miss the whole season after recurring forearm issues. José Urquidy has been out since the end of April with shoulder discomfort, though he’s on a rehab stint and expected back soon.
As with the Rays, the Astros have a quality top of the rotation. Framber Valdez headlines a group that also includes Cristian Javier and rookie Hunter Brown. Javier has scuffled of late, which the team has attributed to some fatigue, while Brown is already at 99 1/3 innings after tossing 130 frames last year between the regular season and playoffs. J.P. France and Ronel Blanco have held down the last two spots. Houston general manager Dana Brown has publicly discussed his desire for another arm. The Astros have also been tied to Stroman.
Lorenzen could fit on virtually any contender. He’s playing this season on an $8.5MM salary. Around $2.79MM will remain to be paid out from the deadline onward. Lorenzen tacked on an extra $250K in incentives by passing the 100-inning mark today and would earn a matching amount at 125, 150, 175, 195 and 205 frames.
If he stays healthy, he’s likely to at least get to the 150-175 inning range. Still, the tab for an acquiring team would only be around $3MM. That’s a reasonable figure for mid-rotation production for the stretch run and into the playoffs.
While that all makes Lorenzen a sensible trade target, it’s not a foregone conclusion Detroit sells. Despite being eight games under .500 with a -77 run differential, the Tigers are only five games back of the division-leading Twins in the AL Central.
It’s tough to see this Detroit club making a playoff push — only Oakland and Kansas City have scored fewer runs on the season — but the bleakness of the division leaves the door slightly ajar. President of baseball operations Scott Harris implied last week the team could play well enough to avoid a deadline sell-off, although they could strike a middle ground by dealing Lorenzen while holding onto players who are controllable beyond 2023.