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Seven Players Reject Qualifying Offers

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All seven players who received a $20.325MM qualifying offer this year have rejected it, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. The deadline for a decision is today at 3 pm Central but it seems all of Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Sonny Gray, Josh Hader, Aaron Nola and Blake Snell have already made up their minds.

There wasn’t much drama with any of these decisions, as all seven were considered locks to reject and still collect sizeable free agent contracts. On MLBTR’s list of the Top 50 Free Agents, six of the seven player were predicted to get a nine-figure deal in the coming months. The only exception was Gray, who was limited by his 34 years of age to a prediction of $90MM over four years. The players had one week to gauge the market after receiving those QOs and it doesn’t seem any of them got any sense that accepting the one-year deal was a wise course of action.

There would have been more drama if some borderline candidates had been issued QOs, but it was a fairly conservative group this winter. Last year, 12 players received QOs and Martín Pérez and Joc Pederson eventually accepted. But none of this year’s on-the-cusp players got the offer, with each of Teoscar Hernández, Jorge Soler, J.D. Martinez, Rhys Hoskins, Kenta Maeda and Kevin Kiermaier heading into free agency unencumbered.

Each of the players who received and rejected the QO will now net their former club draft pick compensation in the event they sign elsewhere this winter. The value of that compensation will depend upon whether the club received revenue sharing or paid the competitive balance tax in 2023. The signing club would also be subject to draft pick forfeiture and perhaps a reduction of international bonus pool space, with the penalty also dependant on revenue sharing and CBT status.

Rockies Select Four Players To 40-Man Roster

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The Rockies announced their 40-man roster moves in advance of today’s Rule 5 deadline, bringing their allotment back up to a full 40 players.  Colorado selected the contracts of infielder Adael Amador, outfielder Yanquiel Fernandez, and right-handers Juan Mejia and Angel Chivilli.

There wasn’t much suspense over the first two moves, as Amador and Fernandez are two of the better prospects in all of baseball.  Baseball America and MLB Pipeline each rank Amador as the 21st-best minor leaguer in the game, while Fernandez is ranked 47th by BA and 49th by Pipeline.  The duo each reached the Double-A level in 2023 but didn’t perform particularly well, though Amador missed a lot of time with a broken right hamate bone.  It seems likely that Colorado will start both back at Double-A Hartford to begin the 2024 campaign, but it wouldn’t be a shock if either Amador or Fernandez got a cup of coffee in the majors before the year is out.

Mejia had a combined 5.06 ERA over 58 2/3 combined innings with High-A Spokane and Double-A Hartford in 2023, but as MLB.com’s Thomas Harding wrote this week, Mejia looked quite impressive in Arizona Fall League action.  Though Mejia had nine walks over his 8 1/3 innings in the AFL, he also struck out 17 batters, highlighting in rather extreme fashion his career-long trend towards both missing bats and battling control problems.  The Rockies felt Mejia’s live arm is worth the protection, so the 23-year-old will now make a 40-man roster for the first time.

The 21-year-old Chivilli ran into some home run issues in Spokane this season, contributing to the 5.61 ERA he posted over 61 combined innings (57 in High-A ball, four at Double-A).  Like Mejia, Chivilli has saved some of his best work for the offseason, pitching well in Dominican Winter League action.

White Sox Select Jake Eder, Cristian Mena

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The White Sox have selected the contracts of lefty Jake Eder and right-hander Cristian Mena, per a team announcement. Both are now protected from next month’s Rule 5 Draft. Chicago’s 40-man roster is now up to 37 players.

Eder, 25, is one of the organization’s top pitching prospects. The Sox picked up the former fourth-round pick from the Marlins in the deadline swap that sent corner infielder Jake Burger from Chicago to Miami. Eder, in his first season back from Tommy John surgery, pitched to a 3.94 ERA with a 30.6% strikeout rate in 29 1/3 Double-A frames prior to the swap but perhaps began to wear down late in the season after a lengthy layoff from pitching. He walked 15 hitters in 17 1/3 innings with the Sox following the trade and issued another 15 free passes in 17 2/3 innings of Arizona Fall League play.

Despite the shaky finish to the season, there’s little doubting Eder would’ve been selected in the Rule 5 Draft had he remained unprotected. The lefty ranked as baseball’s No. 62 overall prospect at FanGraphs in 2022 after pitching 71 1/3 innings of 1.77 ERA ball as a 22-year-old in Double-A. He’ll either return to Double-A to begin the 2024 season or jump up to Triple-A — and either way that’ll put him within general proximity of reaching the big leagues.

Mena, 20, has had a meteoric rise through the White Sox’ system, splitting the 2023 season between Double-A and Triple-A. After working to a 3.80 ERA across three levels as a 19-year-old in 2022, he posted a combined 4.85 ERA in 133 2/3 innings this year. While the earned run average certainly doesn’t jump out, Mena was four years younger than the average age of his Double-A opposition and nearly seven years younger than his average opponent in Triple-A. Despite that youth and lack of experience, he managed a 26.9% strikeout rate. His 11% walk rate speaks to a need to hone his command, but Mena has a heater that reaches 96 mph and a curveball that Baseball America (who ranks him sixth among Chicago prospects) touts as a plus pitch.

Mariners Designate Mike Ford, Select Zach DeLoach

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The Mariners announced that Zach DeLoach’s contract has been selected, adding the outfielder to the 40-man roster and protecting him from selection in the Rule 5 Draft.  To create roster room, Seattle designated first baseman Mike Ford for assignment.

Ford is arbitration-eligible for the first time this offseason, and is projected to earn $1.5MM.  It isn’t a huge sum, and Ford had a very solid 123 wRC+ while hitting .228/.323/.475 with 16 home runs over 251 plate appearances for the Mariners this season, but the M’s have seemingly decided that Ford is expendable.  Ford isn’t helped by his lack of minor league options, so a DFA was the only route for the Mariners to move him off the 40-man and possibly down to the minors, though today’s move has the feel of an early cut in advance of Friday’s non-tender deadline.

The 31-year-old Ford made his Major League debut with the Yankees in 2019, bursting onto the scene with 12 homers and a .259/.350/.559 slash line over his first 163 PA in the Show.  Between that rookie season and his 2023 numbers, Ford has sandwiched some quality production around three far less-production seasons, as he batted .170/.275/.294 over 305 PA from 2020-22, bouncing around to five different clubs in that span (including a prior stint with the Mariners).

Should Ford indeed hit the open market again, he might have trouble landing a guaranteed contract, yet there’s some interesting potential here for a team willing to give him some consistent at-bats.  Ford is limited by his out-of-options status and the fact that he can only play first base, but a club looking for some low-cost production from a first baseman can do worse than bringing Ford to Spring Training.  Another reunion with the Mariners doesn’t seem out of the question, if at less than a $1.5MM salary.

DeLoach is one of a few interesting Seattle prospects who might be Rule 5 candidates come December, but for now, the outfielder is the only one locked into a spot on the Mariners’ 40-man roster.  A second-round pick in the 2020 draft, the 25-year-old DeLoach hit .286/.387/.481 slash line with 23 homers in 623 plate appearances for Triple-A Tacoma last season.  The hitter-friendly environment of the Pacific Coast League adds a grain of salt to those numbers, but the added pop answered some scouts’ criticisms that DeLoach hadn’t yet developed enough power at the plate.  Left field might be his only ideal spot in the outfield, but DeLoach does seem to have a chance to make his Major League debut at some point in 2024, in at least a reserve capacity.

Athletics Select Three Players To 40-Man Roster

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The Athletics announced that they have selected left-hander Brady Basso, right-hander Royber Salinas and infielder Darell Hernaiz to the 40-man roster. Today is the deadline to add Rule 5 eligible players and therefore prevent them from being selected by other clubs.

Hernaiz, 22, came over to the A’s from the Orioles in the Cole Irvin trade. In his time with the O’s, he had a speed and contact approach but with minimal power, trends that he carried over to his new organization. In 131 games, between Double-A and Triple-A this year, he hit just nine home runs but struck out in just 13.4% of his plate appearances and slashed .321/.386/.456 for a wRC+ of 117. Defensively, he primarily played shortstop but also saw time at second and third base.

Salinas, 23 in April, was one of five players that the A’s acquired in the three-team Sean Murphy trade. He tossed 67 1/3 innings at the Double-A level this year over 18 appearances, 16 starts, with a 5.48 earned run average. However, the underlying numbers were more encouraging than that ERA would indicate, as he struck out 30.9% of batters faced at that level. His 10.8% walk rate was a bit high but a low 59.9% strand rate perhaps pushed some extra runs across the board, which is why his 4.21 FIP was more than a full run better than his ERA.

Basso, 26, was selected by the A’s in the 16th round of the 2019 draft. Tommy John surgery wiped out his 2022 but he got back on the mound in 2023 and had some encouraging results. He tossed 63 1/3 innings between High-A and Double-A with a 2.42 ERA over 20 appearances, 17 starts. He struck out 26.3% of batters faced while walking 6.2%.

Baseball America currently ranks Hernaiz as the club’s #9 prospect, with Salinas at #17 while Basso doesn’t crack the top 30. The A’s are perhaps the club furthest from contention, so these players should have a chance to earn their way into major league opportunities if they are healthy and productive in future seasons.

Cardinals Announce Six Roster Moves

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The Cardinals announced a series of roster moves in advance of today’s 40-man roster deadline.  Right-handers Adam Kloffenstein and Sem Robberse and catcher Pedro Pages had their contracts selected, while left-hander Connor Thomas was designated for assignment.  (Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported earlier today that Pages’ contract was going to be selected.)  Left-hander Packy Naughton was outrighted to Triple-A, and St. Louis officially confirmed the previously-reported news that Wilking Rodriguez elected free agency after the right-hander had also been outrighted to Triple-A.

It was essentially a set of chalk picks for the Cards in protecting three of the four Rule 5-eligible prospects on their MLB Pipeline top 30 list, with right-hander Ian Bedell the only eligible player now available to rival clubs in December’s R5 Draft.  Bedell might be one of the more interesting names to watch heading into the Rule 5, but the Cardinals felt Kloffenstein, Robberse, and Pages were more worthy of 40-man roster spots.

Kloffenstein and Robberse only joined the organization at the trade deadline, acquired from the Blue Jays in the Jordan Hicks trade.  Both pitchers made their Triple-A debuts after coming to the Cardinals, and they’ll likely start 2024 at Triple-A as well.  Since St. Louis is aiming to add multiple new starting pitchers this winter, Robberse and Kloffenstein will be competing with the Cards’ other young arms to see who might be part of the first wave of depth starters.  It also isn’t out of the question that either could be on the move if the Cardinals pursued some experienced pitching on the trade market.

Pages was a sixth-round pick for the Cardinals in the 2019 draft, and he hit .267/.362/.443 with 16 home runs over 497 plate appearances with Double-A Springfield last season.  Speaking of trade depth, the Cards might also look to the catcher position, as they now have four backstops (Willson Contreras, Ivan Herrera, Andrew Knizner, and Pages) on the 40-man roster.

Thomas was a 40-man selection almost exactly a year ago, as St. Louis looked to protect the outfielder from the 2022 Rule 5 Draft.  The southpaw was coming off a 5.47 ERA in 135 Triple-A innings in 2022, but couldn’t make much headway last year, delivering a 5.53 ERA, 15.7% strikeout rate, and 7.0% walk rate in 94 1/3 frames for Memphis.  Thomas is a grounder specialist who has faced some heavy BABIP misfortune during his minor league career, but the Cardinals have seen enough to potentially move on from the 25-year-old.

Naughton has a 4.98 ERA over 59 2/3 Major League innings since the start of the 2021 season, with his first two big league campaigns spent shuttling back and forth from Triple-A with the Angels and Cardinals.  His 2023 campaign was essentially lost to injury, as Naughton underwent flexor tendon surgery in late June and figures to miss probably the first half of the 2024 season, based on past timelines for similar procedures.  Naughton will continue rehabbing and potentially also surface for at least some bullpen work at some point next year.

Braves Claim Penn Murfee, Designate Yonny Chirinos

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The Braves announced that right-hander Penn Murfee has been claimed off waivers from the Mets.  In the corresponding move, Atlanta designated right-hander Yonny Chirinos for assignment.

It was pretty brief run for Murfee in Queens, as the Mets only just claimed the righty themselves from the Mariners two weeks ago.  It wasn’t publicly known that Murfee was again available, but it could be that the Mets opted to move on and clear some 40-man roster space since Murfee won’t be an option until at least midway through the 2024 season.  Murfee underwent a UCL surgery last June that prematurely ended his 2023 campaign and might threaten all of his 2024 season, depending on the exact nature of the procedure or whether or not he might hit any setbacks.

Since making his big league debut in 2022, Murfee posted a 2.70 ERA over 83 1/3 relief innings for Seattle, along with a 27.9% strikeout rate and 8.5% walk rate.  That latter statistic is rather heavily skewed to 2022, as Murfee had a very impressive 6.6% walk rate last season before his control spiked to a 17.2% walk rate this year.  Of course, this could also be a sample size variant, as Murfee only pitched 14 innings in 2023 before hitting the injured list.

Murfee was a bit of a late bloomer, as he didn’t make his MLB debut until he was just shy of his 28th birthday.  While a little older than most second-year players, Murfee is also controlled through the 2028 season, giving the Braves an interesting longer-term reliever to monitor if Murfee returns healthy and keeps his past form.

Chirinos also arrived in Atlanta via waiver claim, as the Braves plucked him off waivers from the Rays last July.  He made five starts and posted a 9.27 ERA over 22 1/3 innings before a bout of elbow inflammation ultimately ended his season in August.  For the 2023 season as a whole, Chirinos had a 5.40 ERA over 85 combined innings with Tampa Bay and Atlanta, with a 14.4% strikeout rate that was a career low even by Chirinos’ usual standard of not missing many bats.

Chirinos is no stranger to UCL injuries himself, as a Tommy John surgery led to over two full years between Major League appearances for the righty between the 2020 and 2022 seasons.  This year marked Chirinos’ first full season back in action, and he didn’t have the form he showed in posting a 3.65 ERA for the Rays over 234 1/3 innings from 2018-20.

Given Chirinos’ past solid numbers and his utility as a pitcher who can work in a variety of different roles as a starter, reliever, or swingman, it seems reasonable that he might get claimed off waivers.  Chirinos has enough service time to reject an outright assignment to Triple-A, though it seems likely that the Braves will just release him in the event that he clears waivers, thus handling one bit of arbitration-related business.  Chirinos is projected to earn $2MM via arbitration this winter, and today’s transaction is essentially an early non-tender in advance of Friday’s deadline.

Orioles Outright Terrin Vavra, Tucker Davidson

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The Orioles announced that utilityman Terrin Vavra and left-hander Tucker Davidson have been outrighted off the 40-man roster and assigned to Triple-A.  The moves open up two more spots on Baltimore’s 40-man prior to today’s deadline for teams to set their rosters in advance of the Rule 5 Draft, leaving the O’s with 36 players on the roster and four openings to be filled.

There’s clearly some room to maneuver here for the Orioles, as Hudson Haskin is the only clear-cut candidate to be added to the 40-man today.  Of course, Baltimore’s farm system is so deep that even prospects outside their top 30 might be sought after by other clubs, and the O’s routinely make picks in the Rule 5 Draft themselves to add talent from other organizations.  Having extra roster space also allows Baltimore for potential additions of Major League players through trades and free agency.

Vavra made his MLB debut in 2022 and hit a respectable .258/.340/.337 over 103 plate appearances that season, playing primarily as a second baseman and left fielder with one appearance in right field.  He also saw a little bit of third base time this year, and even worked out at catcher in an attempt to further increase his versatility (and his chances of remaining on the big league roster).  However, health was unfortunately the story of Vavra’s 2023 campaign, as a shoulder strain kept Vavra on the injured list for much of the season.  His last MLB game was on May 31, and he played in only two minor league games after mid-June.

Davidson was claimed off waivers from the Royals a few weeks ago, and he signed a pre-arbitration contract solidifying his potential big league salary for the 2024 season.  The 27-year-old southpaw has a 5.98 ERA over 125 career innings with the Braves, Angels, and Royals, to date falling short of the potential he showed when coming up the ladder in Atlanta’s farm system.  Though he has some solid numbers at the Triple-A level, Davidson has had trouble limiting walks and recording strikeouts in the majors, and he became primarily a reliever this season after previously working as a starter with the Braves.

In order to move Davidson to Triple-A and off the 40-man roster, the Orioles had to first put him through waivers since Davidson is out of minor league options.  This could mean that he might face some regular turns through DFA limbo in the future should he return to Baltimore’s (or another team’s) 40-man roster.

Nationals Designate Dominic Smith For Assignment

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The Nationals announced Tuesday that they’ve designated first baseman Dominic Smith and right-hander Cory Abbott for assignment. Washington has also granted righty Andres Machado his release so that he can pursue an opportunity in Japan. That slate of moves clears space on the 40-man roster for lefties DJ Herz and Mitchell Parker as well as righties Cole Henry and Zach Brzykcy. That quartet of pitchers is now protected from next month’s Rule 5 Draft.

Smith, 28, was a first-round pick, longtime top prospect and (more briefly) a quality run producer for the division-rival Mets prior to being non-tendered in the 2022-23 offseason. From 2019-20, Smith treated the Mets to a stellar .299/.366/.571 batting line in 396 trips to the plate. He swatted 21 homers and connected on 31 doubles in that time before stumbling to a .643 OPS over his next two seasons and being cut loose. Smith’s lone year in D.C. brought about a rebound to some extent, as he turned in a .254/.326/.366 batting line with a dozen homers, but that wasn’t enough for the Nats to retain him and offer him a raise in arbitration.

Also 28 years old, Abbott has spent the past two seasons with the Nats. The former Cubs farmhand has logged 87 1/3 innings of 5.87 ERA ball in the Majors with Washington, fanning 21.3% of his opponents against an 11% walk rate. Abbott posted strong minor league numbers up through the Double-A level and once ranked as one of the Cubs’ more promising pitching prospects, but he’s now struggled in both Triple-A (5.46 ERA in parts of three seasons) and the big leagues. He’s out of minor league options as well, which could make it tough for another club to claim him.

Both Abbott and Smith will be traded or placed on waivers within the next week. Both can become free agents if they’re unclaimed.

As for Machado, he’ll start the next chapter of his career overseas — likely on a seven-figure guarantee that wouldn’t have been available to him in North American ball. He’s out of minor league options and not yet arbitration-eligible, so he was likely to lose his 40-man roster spot and spend next year trying to work his way back to the big leagues.

From 2021-22, Machado was a quietly solid member of the Washington bullpen, tallying 91 appearances and 95 innings of 3.41 ERA ball. He benefited from a .264 average on balls in play and had success in spite of pedestrian strikeout and walk rates of 18.3% and 9.9%, respectively.

Some degree of regression appeared in store, but perhaps not to the extent he saw in 2023 when he was torched for a 5.22 ERA in 50 innings despite marked improvements in his K-BB profile (20.8% strikeout rate, 6.3% walk rate). While Machado improved in terms of missing bats and limiting free passes (to say nothing of a 1 mph uptick in fastball velocity, to 96.7 mph on average), he also become staggeringly homer-prone; in 50 innings he served up 12 long balls — 2.34 homers per nine frames (and a home run on 24% of the fly-balls he yielded). He’ll take that plus velocity and improved command overseas, though it’s not yet clear precisely which team he’ll join.

All four of the prospects added to the Nationals’ 40-man roster today rank among their top 30 prospects at MLB.com. Herz is 22 years of age, while the others are all 24. Herz was the Cubs’ eighth-round pick in 2019 and came to the Nats by way of this summer’s Jeimer Candelario trade. He punched out nearly a third of his opponents while working as a starter in Double-A but also issued walks at almost a 14% clip. Injuries have plagued the career of Henry, a 2020 second-round pick with a potentially plus slider and plus-plus changeup. He pitched just 33 1/3 innings this past season. Similar to Herz, Parker is a lefty who missed bats in droves in the upper minors but did so with shaky command. Brzykcy is a bullpen prospect with a power fastball who missed the 2023 season due to Tommy John surgery.

Brewers Acquire Oliver Dunn From Phillies

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The Brewers have acquired infielder Oliver Dunn from the Phillies, per an announcement from the latter club. Dunn has been added to Milwaukee’s 40-man roster, per Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, bringing their count to 37. In exchange, the Phillies receive outfielder Hendry Mendez and infielder Robert Moore. Notably, Dunn was set to be Rule 5 eligible but the other two players were not. Today is the deadline for selecting players to prevent them from being eligible in the Rule 5 draft.

Dunn, 26, was an 11th-round selection of the Yankees in 2019 but went to the Phillies last year. He was the very last pick in the minor league phase of last year’s Rule 5 draft, with the Phils making three more selections after every other team gave up.

He then played 119 Double-A games in the Phillies’ organization in 2023, hitting 21 home runs and stealing 16 bases. He struck out in 27.5% of his plate appearances but also walked 16.2% of the time. His .271/.396/.506 batting line translated to a wRC+ of 148 while playing second base, third base and left field. He then went to the Arizona Fall League and hit .343/.455/.616 in 88 plate appearances there.

Dunn would have been Rule 5 eligible again next month but it seems the Phils didn’t have a spot for him, or perhaps were debating the decision until they were able to work out this deal, nabbing a couple of guys who won’t be Rule 5 eligible until 2025.

Mendez, 20, was an international signing out of the Dominican Republic, getting a bonus of $800K from the Brewers in 2021. Prior to this deal, he was considered the #25 prospect in the Brewers’ system by Baseball America, who note that he has strong approach at the plate but a concerning lack of power. He has nine home runs so far in his 856 minor league plate appearances, including three this past season.

Moore, 22 in March, was just selected 72nd overall in the 2022 draft. The son of executive Dayton Moore, he got into 123 High-A games in 2023 and hit .233/.321/.361 for a wRC+ of 94. He played second base, third base and shortstop. BA has him ranked #20 in the system.

For the Brewers, they’re giving up a couple of long-term prospects coming off underwhelming seasons in order to add a guy who can bolster their infield depth immediately. They are set to have Willy Adames at shortstop, though his name has come up in trade rumors. They also have Andruw Monasterio, Brice Turang, Rowdy Tellez, Abraham Toro, Owen Miller, Jahmai Jones and Vinny Capra as options on the 40-man to cover the infield spots, with Dunn now added into that mix.

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