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Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs

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MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The Cubs will consider major trades as they look to improve a team with holes in center field, the rotation, and the bullpen.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

This year the Cubs failed to reach the playoffs for the first time since their rebuild ended in 2015.  Following a disappointing 84-win season, Joe Maddon’s five-year term as manager came to an end.  Despite Maddon achieving the impossible with the Cubs’ 2016 championship, the club showed little interest in a new deal.  It was a pretty typical progression – the Cubs’ performance had become increasingly disappointing, particularly with 2018’s one-game Wild Card ouster and missing the playoffs entirely in ’19.  That’s not a situation where a manager is typically re-signed, even if most of the blame falls on the players and front office.  Maddon is famously laid-back, so the team brought David Ross in to light a fire under the players as well to restore camaraderie.  Ross seems like he’ll be able to improve those situations, and should be equally adept as Maddon in dealing with the media.  Where Ross’ lineup and in-game tactics rank remains to be seen, as he has no prior managerial experience.  The Cubs protected against that concern by hiring former Padres manager Andy Green to serve as Ross’ bench coach.

After hiring Ross, Cubs president Theo Epstein kicked off his offseason by making easy calls on club options, retaining Anthony Rizzo and Jose Quintana and moving on from pitchers David Phelps, Brandon Morrow, Kendall Graveman, and Tony Barnette.  The team also picked up Jharel Cotton, an affordable righty who can compete for a fifth starter or long relief role.  Cotton, 28 in January, looked promising back in 2016 before injuries set in.  The Cubs also made the overdue decision to part ways with infielder Addison Russell, oddly accentuating that they did so because his salary was getting too high.  That the Epstein regime did not cut ties with Russell due to the domestic violence allegations against him more than two years ago is something that many of the team’s fans will continue to find disturbing.

Looking forward, let’s start with the matter of the Cubs’ payroll.  Epstein’s not talking about it, but the Cubs were one of only three teams to exceed the $206MM luxury tax line in 2019.  Back in September, the Associated Press projected the Cubs’ penalty for this infraction to be $6.34MM.  On the surface, it’s difficult to call the team cheap when they’re running a top-three payroll in baseball.  On the other hand, it’s hard to see why a 20% tax on the overage would serve as a real impediment to any major market team.  It’s worth questioning what would constitute a reasonable player payroll for these corporations, rather than taking their word for it or accepting the luxury tax threshold as a salary cap.

Back of the napkin, the Cubs have contract commitments of about $135MM for 2020, plus an arbitration class that should run around $44MM.  There seems to be enough wiggle room for one premium player or at least several decent ones, right?  But the reality is that the team’s competitive balance tax payroll is higher, estimated around $210MM for 2020 already.  As the AP explains, “Luxury tax payrolls are based on the average annual values of contracts for players on 40-man rosters and include $14.5 million per team in benefits.”  Every dollar the Cubs spend between $208MM-228MM comes with a 30% tax, and every dollar they spend between $228MM-248MM comes with a 42% tax.  If the Cubs were to sign Gerrit Cole at a $35MM AAV, it would be more like paying him $48MM in 2020 due to the taxes they’d incur, and it would leave little room for other notable additions without accompanying subtractions.

On the other hand, with Lester, Quintana, and Chatwood off the books in ’21, the Cubs could get under the $210MM base tax threshold in that season, at which point all the taxes would go away.  Would it be crazy to go to $247MM in 2020, pay a $14MM tax once, and then reset?  I don’t think so, but $248MM represents a harder line in the sand since spending beyond that point would be taxed at 75%, and the Cubs’ top draft pick would move down ten spots.  After going down the rabbit hole here, you start to see that there’s almost no chance the Cubs will add more than $38MM in CBT payroll this winter, and they could easily choose to draw the line at $18MM added.

It certainly seems like the Cubs will be sitting out on the major free agents for the second consecutive winter.  Obviously, any of the big dogs would greatly increase the team’s chances of returning to the playoffs in 2020.  With Cole Hamels having signed with the Braves, the Cubs’ rotation sets up as Yu Darvish, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana, and Jon Lester.  With Quintana, Lester, and Chatwood due for free agency after the season, another long-term investment in the rotation in the form of Cole or Stephen Strasburg would be worth considering.  Third baseman Anthony Rendon is a tougher fit, as signing the game-changing star would necessitate playing Kris Bryant full-time at an outfield corner, and Bryant has never spent even 500 innings in the outfield in an MLB season.  Or, Bryant could be traded this winter.

Bryant is only under team control for two more seasons, with a slight chance of 2020 becoming his walk year if he wins his service time grievance.  Though Bryant winning the grievance is considered unlikely, I don’t see why, since the Cubs’ manipulation of his service time to gain a seventh year of control was the most blatant case in recent history.  It doesn’t seem crazy to think that an independent arbitrator could rule in his favor.  Regardless, if the Cubs are to seriously entertain trading Bryant this winter, it would have to be after the decision is revealed.  Moving Bryant generally seems like robbing Peter to pay Paul, as Bryant is a five-win player who should earn around $20MM this winter, and that’s a great deal for the Cubs.  Still, it’s possible to trade a five-win player and emerge better for it.

Who might pursue Bryant this winter?  We could start with Rendon’s suitors.  Bryant is about 19 months younger than Rendon, but Rendon has become better on both sides of the ball and projects to remain a little better in the short-term.  The Dodgers, Rangers, and Nationals, as Rendon suitors, could view Bryant as an interesting Plan B, but those same clubs could also look at Josh Donaldson.  If we’re assuming Bryant will mostly be deployed at the hot corner, the Angels, Braves, Phillies, Indians, Marlins, Mets, Rays, or Twins could be options.  Bryant could be especially interesting for teams that would never be able to sign a player of his caliber in free agency.  I can only speculate so much, but I imagine young, controllable starting pitching would be a key part of a Bryant deal for the Cubs.  If the Cubs actually do move Bryant and don’t want to replace him with the large salary of Rendon or Donaldson, they could plug in David Bote as his replacement at third base.

Similarly, we’ve seen the suggestion the Cubs could trade catcher Willson Contreras this winter.  Contreras, 27, is one of the best-hitting catchers in the game, and he has three years of remaining control.  He’s poorly regarded as a pitch framer, so the teams that lost out on Yasmani Grandal won’t necessarily be all over Contreras.  The Angels, Astros, Blue Jays, Mets, and Rangers could potentially seek a boost behind the plate and consider Contreras.  But the Cubs, much like with any potential Bryant trade, would increase their own exposure by elevating Victor Caratini to regular status, especially with Grandal off the board.  “The Cubs are going to make a move,” wrote ESPN’s Jeff Passan, so it seems that after years of threatening a possible position player shakeup, the club will actually do so to some degree this winter.

While the Cubs’ infield could easily be left alone, with Nico Hoerner stepping in as the regular second baseman, the team’s outfield situation seems more unsettled.  Heyward has a spot locked down, and has at least settled in as a two-win player who could be used in center field in the short-term.  I don’t think the Cubs want to commit to keeping Heyward out of his natural right field position, however, which is one reason a reunion with Nicholas Castellanos seems unlikely.  Mike Moustakas, a pretty good but flawed position player without a qualifying offer attached, snagged a four-year, $64MM deal from the Reds.  Castellanos, almost three and a half years younger than Moose, seems to have a chance at topping that contract.  Given Castellanos’ defensive limitations and their current payroll crunch, that doesn’t seem like a contract the Cubs will find palatable.

Plus, Kyle Schwarber already serves the role as a solid bat-first corner outfielder for the Cubs, and he should clock in at half Castellanos’ salary without a long-term commitment.  While Schwarber is certainly a trade candidate, the simplest scenario for the Cubs may be to leave him in left and Heyward in right, importing a quality starting center fielder.  That would bump Albert Almora to a fourth outfielder role or trade bait, not that much return would be expected.  The Cubs have Shogo Akiyama on their radar as a possible center field solution, according to Patrick Mooney of The Athletic.  Jackie Bradley Jr. could be a trade option, though not a game-changer, and his $11MM salary projection is problematic.  Starling Marte would be an excellent target if the Pirates are willing to move him in the division, and his $11.5MM CBT hit would be worth it.  Aside from Akiyama, the free agent market is sparse at center field, with only Kevin Pillar and Brett Gardner qualifying as potential regulars.  Though the Cubs’ center fielder doesn’t necessarily have to be their leadoff hitter, it would be nice to kill two birds with one stone.  Akiyama has run an OBP of .385 or better for the Seibu Lions in each of the last five seasons, so the Cubs’ interest makes sense.

We haven’t talked yet about Ian Happ, the Cubs’ first-round pick from 2015.  The 25-year-old has a career 112 wRC+ in 1,031 plate appearances, though the switch-hitter’s success has been largely against right-handed pitching.  He’s been a man without a position in his big league career, though perhaps 2020 could represent a chance to earn semi-regular playing time in center field if the Cubs don’t make a significant pickup.  Happ is also a trade option, though the Cubs could be selling low.

Moving Heyward to center field in the short-term is also palatable.  That could allow the Cubs to consider free agents like Avisail Garcia, Yasiel Puig, Kole Calhoun, and Steven Souza.  None represent a clear upgrade for the Cubs, however.  Mookie Betts remains the crown jewel of the trade market, and of course would be a huge one-year addition for the Cubs.  As the GM who drafted Betts, you’d have to think Epstein will at least inquire, but a salary projection near $30MM could be an issue for the Cubs the same way it is for the Red Sox.  More down-to-earth trade options could include Trey Mancini or Whit Merrifield (who could also help at second base).

The Cubs would be well-served to think bigger with their open rotation spot than Jharel Cotton, Adbert Alzolay, and Chatwood, but it’s unclear how big they’ll go.  I think they’d top out at a $10MM a year type of free agent, and possibly wouldn’t go that far.  The decision not to issue a qualifying offer to Hamels showed, if nothing else, they weren’t comfortable risking him accepting a one-year, $17.8MM deal, even though that’s the contract he ended up getting from the Braves.  It’s also quite possible the Cubs’ rotation will be addressed with an affordable young arm if they wind up trading a position player.

The Cubs’ bullpen is of greater urgency.  Given their commitment to Kimbrel, they’ve got to try to fix him after a disastrous stint in which he posted a 6.53 ERA with nine home runs allowed in 20 2/3 innings.  After Kimbrel, Rowan Wick and Kyle Ryan probably have spots locked down.  Veterans Pedro Strop, Steve Cishek, and Brandon Kintzler are all free agents, though Strop has expressed a desire to return.  Ideally, the Cubs would add a stable veteran who could step into the ninth inning if Kimbrel falters.  Reliability is not easily found among free agent relievers, though Will Harris might fit the bill.

Assuming Bryant’s grievance goes the Cubs’ way, their core position player trio of Bryant, Javier Baez, and Anthony Rizzo remains under control through 2021.  The three players should be good for 12 WAR at a cost of about $44MM in total in 2020.  While that’s obviously not the strong competitive advantage of paying all three players less than $9MM total for 13+ WAR, as they did in each of the 2016 and ’17 seasons, it’s still a great price for the talent and not something to be squandered.  Logically, if there’s a time for the franchise to take a step back and reset, it’s after the 2021 season.  With the team’s payroll issues still in full force, creativity will be required by Epstein and company this winter.

D-backs, Giants Join Cubs With Interest In Nicholas Castellanos

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12:30pm: The Diamondbacks are also showing some interest, Morosi tweets. It’s good news for Castellanos to have National League teams involved, though it’s still not clear which if any would be interested in a lengthy commitment.

10:42am: The Giants have joined the Cubs in showing interest in free agent outfielder Nicholas Castellanos, according to a report from Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Other pursuers remain unknown.

Castellanos is one of the many Scott Boras-repped players populating the upper reaches of the open market. He joins Marcell Ozuna among the top-available outfield options.

While it’s a bit worrisome to imagine Castellanos patrolling the spacious Oracle Park outfield, the club is pulling in the fences this winter. And as Morosi notes, it’s also possible that the youthful slugger could at some point step back into the infield. (He never managed to stick at third base previously but could presumably be expected to play a palatable first base.)

Castellanos is an exceptionally difficult free agent to prognosticate. We ultimately settled on a prediction of four years and $58MM, but batted around quite a few alternative concepts. Castellanos is an accomplished but hardly all-world hitter who has shown some improvements in the field but remains a bat-first player. Involvement of the Giants in his market would assuredly help, as the level of demand has constituted a major element of uncertainty in the earning outlook.

Latest On Cubs’ Offseason Plans

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The Cubs, just a couple months from the end of a bitterly disappointing campaign, may be on their way to an offseason shakeup. The club has been “aggressive,” “manic,” “motivated” and “obvious” in its effort to trade someone, executives have told Jeff Passan of ESPN.com.

The possibility of a trade involving first baseman Anthony Rizzo has looked out of the question to this point, but even the franchise favorite might not be off-limits, according to Passan, who names third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant and catcher Willson Contreras as other possible chips for Chicago.

Rizzo’s on the heels of yet another excellent offensive season, in which he slashed .293/.405/.520 with 27 home runs in 613 plate appearances. The 30-year-old is controllable for the next two seasons by way of affordable club options, and has already said he hopes to sign a new contract with the Cubs. So far, though, there hasn’t been any scuttlebutt regarding a new deal between the two sides.

Pound for pound, Bryant’s likely the best player of the three, but there’s wariness toward him from other clubs in regards to his team control, per Passan. As of now, Bryant’s still under wraps for two more years via arbitration, but the former NL MVP will become a free agent next winter if he wins a grievance against the Cubs for allegedly manipulating his service time as a rookie in 2015. He’s currently slated to earn a projected $18.5MM via the arb process next season, and that looks like a reasonable price relative to what the soon-to-be 28-year-old Bryant brings to the table. Still, if teams aren’t sure whether they’ll get one or two years of Bryant, it’s understandable that they may not want to make a massive offer for him.

Meantime, there’s no debate as to how much time Contreras has left before free agency. He’s got another three arb-eligible years, including a 2020 season in which he’s slated to earn at a bargain rate of $4.5MM. Between his cost and his years-long track record of terrific production, Contreras is hands down one of the most valuable catchers in baseball. With that in mind, the Cubs aren’t under pressure to trade Contreras for anything less than a sweetheart offer. However, if Chicago does move Contreras, it does seem to have a capable replacement on hand in Victor Caratini.

Whether the Cubs part with Rizzo, Bryant, Contreras or another of their big-time contributors (Javier Baez?), it does look as if this is setting up as an offseason of seismic changes for the club. Epstein was frustrated a year ago after the Cubs failed to advance past the wild-card round, so he’s surely even more upset now following a season in which they didn’t even make the playoffs.

Cubs Non-Tender Addison Russell, Danny Hultzen

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The Cubs have non-tendered infielder Addison Russell, per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times (via Twitter). Lefty Danny Hultzen was also not tendered a contract, MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian adds on Twitter.

This ends a scandalous Cubs tenure for Russell, who came to the team as a possible shortstop of the future in a blockbuster trade with the Athletics in 2014. Russell was an elite prospect at the time, but his production as a Cub never reached that level (even during their World Series-winning campaign in 2016), and a 40-game suspension for domestic violence in 2018-19 marred the tail end of his time in Chicago.

The Cubs stuck with Russell in 2019, when he hit .237/.308/.391 with nine home runs in 241 plate appearances, but with Javier Baez and Nico Hoerner among their top middle infield choices, they’ve decided to go in another direction instead of paying the 25-year-old a projected $5.1MM in his second-last season of arbitration. However, Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein offered a positive assessment of Russell upon letting him go, per Patrick Mooney of The Athletic (via Twitter).

“Since we decided to tender Addison a contract last November, he has lived up to his promise to put in the important self-improvement work necessary off the field and has shown growth as a person, as a partner, as a parent and as a citizen,” said Epstein.

Like Russell, Hultzen’s a former stud prospect whose time in the majors hasn’t gone according to plan. Injuries have been ruinous to the 30-year-old Hultzen, a former first-round pick of the Mariners who didn’t debut in the bigs until this past season. Hultzen totaled just 3 1/3 innings as a member of the Cubs, with whom he didn’t allow a run and put up five strikeouts against two walks. But that wasn’t enough to convince the Cubs, who have moved on from Hultzen.

Players Avoiding Arbitration Prior To 2019 Non-Tender Deadline

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With tonight’s 8pm ET deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players looming, there’ll be several players who agree to one-year contracts for the 2020 season today. It’s common for the day of the non-tender deadline to be a big one for arbitration agreements, though it’s also worth noting that many of the players who agree to terms today will do so at a rate that’s lower than the salary figures projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

Broadly speaking, players who agree to terms on a salary this far in advance tend to be those who were at risk of being non-tendered, and their teams are able to use tonight’s deadline as leverage in bringing about a deal that saves them a bit of cash. A look at some of the early instances of players agreeing to terms reveals this to be true already; Mike Zunino ($4.5MM salary vs. $4.9MM projection), Wilmer Difo ($1MM salary vs. $1.2MM projection) and Scott Alexander ($875K salary vs. $1MM projection) have all agreed to lesser terms rather than risk being cast out into the free-agent market.

We’ll keep track of today’s players who avoid arbitration in this post and update throughout the day…

  • The Padres have a deal for $1.5MM with infielder Greg Garcia, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. That’s a shade under his $1.7MM projection for the 30-year-old.
  • Infielder Orlando Arcia has avoided arbitration with the Brewers, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). Though he’s set to lose some playing time, it seems Arcia will be expected to retain a notable role. He’s considered a talented defender at short and was long expected to come around with the bat, but it hasn’t happened yet.
  • Dodgers catcher Austin Barnes is in agreement on a $1.1MM deal, per Robert Murray (Twitter link). It’s a guaranteed deal, which isn’t standard for arbitration pacts. Barnes had projected at $1.3MM on the heels of a disappointing season. It seems he’ll be asked to function as the club’s second backstop in 2020.

Earlier Moves

  • The Rangers have a deal in place with right-hander Nick Goody, the club announced. He’ll earn $915K, according to MLB.com’s TR Sullivan (via Twitter). Goody projected to earn $1.1MM, so he’s taking a discount on that mark with his new club.
  • Just-acquired righty Jharel Cotton has agreed to a $640K deal with the Cubs, Rosenthal tweets. Cotton had projected at $800K but he’s surely focused first and foremost on getting a significant MLB opportunity. He didn’t quite make it back to the majors in 2019 after a long injury layoff but figures to represent a swingman option for the Chicago club in 2020.
  • Outfielder Alex Dickerson and lefty Wandy Peralta are in agreement with the Giants, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter links). Dickerson settled for $925K, which is well under his $1.2MM projected earning power. The 29-year-old has had trouble staying healthy but usually hits when he is on the field. He rewarded the San Francisco organization for taking a shot on him last year by turning in a .290/.351/.529 batting line in 171 plate appearances. As for Peralta, he lands right at his projected value with a $805K salary. The 28-year-old was claimed off waivers late in the 2019 season.
  • The White Sox and James McCann avoided arbitration with a one-year deal worth $5.4MM, tweets ESPN’s Jeff Passan. McCann’s deal checks in a half million dollars north of his $4.9MM projection. Chicago’s addition of Yasmani Grandal has likely relegated McCann to backup duties, so he’ll be a rather expensive second catcher for the South Siders. A free agent next winter, McCann hit .273/.328/.460 with a career-high 18 home runs, but his bat went dormant in the season’s final few months and his .359 BABIP seems particularly ripe for regression.
  • The Athletics avoided arbitration with left-handed reliever T.J. McFarland by agreeing to a one-year contract worth $1.8MM, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets. That salary effectively puts McFarland in line for the same salary he’d have received had he had his $1.85MM club option exercised by the Diamondbacks. Arizona, however, bought him out for $50K and then ran him through waivers, at which point the A’s claimed him. The 30-year-old posted a 4.82 ERA with a middling 5.6 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in 56 2/3 innings this past season, but he’s a ground-ball behemoth (61.1 percent). He’ll be a free agent next winter and had been projected at $2.1MM.
  • Infielder Ehire Adrianza and the Twins agreed on a $1.6MM salary for the upcoming season, Nightengale tweets. The versatile utilityman hit .272/.349/.416 in 236 plate appearances while appearing at all four infield spots and both outfield corners. Adrianza, a free agent next winter, was projected at $1.9MM.
  • Outfielder Travis Jankowski agreed to a rare arbitration pay cut with the Reds, Bobby Nightengale Jr. of the Cincinnati Enquirer tweets. After earning $1.165MM in 2019, he’ll be owed $1.05MM in 2020 if he makes the club. A fractured wrist cost him much of the season in 2019, and he was just 4-for-22 when healthy and in the Majors. Jankowski did have a nice season in Triple-A, though (.393 OBP in 39 games), and the Reds gave up some international funds to acquire him, which seemingly indicated that they planned to tender him a contract. He was projected to earn $1.2MM.

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Cubs To Hire Craig Driver As First Base/Catching Coach

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The Cubs are set to hire Craig Driver as their new first base and catching coach, ESPN.com’s Jesse Rogers reports (Twitter link).  Driver will replace Will Venable as Chicago’s first base coach, though president of baseball operations Theo Epstein said earlier this month that Venable would be returning to the Cubs’ staff in 2020.  The most obvious spot for Venable seems to be at third base, as former third base coach Brian Butterfield left the Cubs to join former manager Joe Maddon in Anaheim.

Driver has spent the last two seasons as the Phils’ receiving coach and bullpen catcher, following five years coaching at Yale, Central Washington University, and the University Of Puget Sound.  As the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Scott Lauber outlined in a piece last August, J.T. Realmuto’s caught-stealing numbers greatly increased on Driver’s watch, as Realmuto’s 46.7% caught stealing percentage in 2019 dwarfed his previous career best of 38.2%.  Realmuto’s framing and blocking also improved, as per Baseball Prospectus, turning a player who was already the sport’s best catcher into one of its best all-around performers at any position.

The Cubs would love to see Willson Contreras make such a leap, as Contreras has only been roughly average at throwing out baserunners during his career.  Framing has also long been considered an issue for the two-time All-Star, though BP and StatCorner differed wildly in their evaluations of Contreras’ framing work in 2019.  StatCorner ranked Contreras as the 17th-best pitch-framer in the game last season, while Baseball Prospectus ranked him 109th of 113 catchers in the Framing Runs category.

As Rogers noted in another tweet, Driver joins a coaching staff that is deep in catching knowledge.  Newly-hired manager David Ross and quality assurance coach Mike Napoli have a combined 1344 games of big league experience behind the plate, while current catching, strategy, and associate pitching coach Mike Borzello still seems to be a member of the 2020 staff.  It could be that Driver’s responsibilities will continue to focus largely on receiving and he’ll operate alongside Borzello in working with Contreras, Victor Caratini, and the organization’s other backstops.  It’s worth noting that Driver was one of two catching coaches on Philadelphia’s staff, alongside Bob Stumpo.

Quick Hits: 40-Man Rosters, Cubs, Japanese FAs

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As we approach the non-tender deadline and the Rule 5 draft, many of the 40-man roster changes may seem inconsequential from a league perspective. But for those players involved, a spot on a 40-man roster can be life-changing. As noted by Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper, a minor league player’s pay will jump from $2000 a month to at least $46,000 for the year once added to the 40-man. That’s a significant pay bump, but their potential for future earnings also gets a jolt as they receive an invite to spring camp and a longer look from major league coaches and executives. Even one day on the ML roster during the season will earn a player more in a week than he’d likely ever made in a month of minor league ball. Given the roster churn that happens over the course of a season and the high rate of injuries, a spot on the 40-man roster gives a player a pretty decent chance of making an appearance in the show. Feel free to take a moment this morning to reflect on baseball’s greater economic landscape, then follow up with a couple quick hits from around the league.

  • The Cubs are in the market for pitching, but probably not the top names on the free agent market, per The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney. The Cubs haven’t been able to put together a pitching staff like the one that took them to a World Series title in 2016, and they no longer have the financial leeway to make a big splash like they did with the signing of Jon Lester. Only Kyle Hendricks remains close to the guy he was in 2016 when Hendricks, Lester, and Jake Arrieta each put together seasons worthy of Cy Young consideration en route to the curse-breaking championship. The Cubs of today will have to hit on below-the-radar type acquisitions, as they did in acquiring Arrieta and Hendricks in the first place. Willson Contreras could fetch a noteworthy piece, but that’s a theoretical valuation that requires a trading partner willing to move the right young arm.
  • While ardent fans are familiar with most of the names in the free agent pool, there are a few newcomers from Japanese professional baseball who remain relatively unknown commodities to American followers. Thankfully, Jason Coskrey of Baseball America provides scouting reports on a host of Japanese ballplayers who could find themselves on MLB rosters in the not-too-distant future. It’s a list that includes three players who have already been posted—Ryosuke Kikuchi, Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, and Shun Yamaguchi—and Shogo Akiyama, an international free agent, all of whom are eligible to negotiate with big league clubs. Coskrey also names a number of players who could be next in line to make it stateside via the posting system or international free agency, including the famed Tetsuto Yamada. For those readers who are interested in familiarizing themselves with the newest influx of international talent to the MLB landscape, Coskrey’s piece is worth a look.

Cubs Claim C.D. Pelham

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The Cubs announced that they’ve claimed left-hander C.D. Pelham off waivers from the Rangers. The move brings Chicago’s 40-man roster to a count of 38 players. Texas has also announced the move, adding that right-hander Taylor Guerrieri went unclaimed on waivers and has accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A Nashville.

Pelham, 24, boasts a blistering fastball that averaged better than 96 mph in his 2018 MLB debut, but the former 33rd-round pick struggled through a poor season in the upper minors in 2019. Pelham allowed 43 runs in 32 1/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A this season and walked more batters (40) than he struck out (37).

The waiver claim is likely about the appealing nature of Pelham’s raw pitch arsenal, but there’s clearly an enormous amount of work to be done in order to refine the lefty. Still, with a pair of open spots on the 40-man roster, there’s little harm in placing a claim — and the Cubs could always try to pass Pelham through waivers themselves in order to keep him in the organization without committing a 40-man spot.

As for Guerrieri, he once ranked as one of the game’s premier pitching prospects in his days with the Tampa Bay organization, but injuries have largely derailed much of the promise he once showed. The 26-year-old (27 next week) posted a 5.68 ERA in 26 1/3 innings at the MLB level in 2019, although his 3.47 ERA, 9.7 K/9, 3.8 BB/9 and 55.7 percent grounder rate in Triple-A offer more encouragement.

Cubs Interested In Whit Merrifield

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The Cubs are showing “continued interest” in Royals’ second baseman/outfielder Whit Merrifield, reported Jon Paul Morosi of MLB Network earlier this week. The two-time reigning MLB hits leader is guaranteed just $15.25MM over the next three seasons (with a team option for a fourth) under the affordable extension he signed with Kansas City in January.

It’s not difficult to see why the Cubs are interested in Merrifield, but they (or any other suitor) will have a hard time prying him away from KC. Merrifield (31 in January) has been extremely durable and productive the past three seasons. Since the start of 2016, he’s taken 2,404 plate appearances of above-average hitting (.296/.344/.445, 109 wRC+), while chipping in elite baserunning and passable defense at multiple positions. The Cubs have an uncertain mix at Merrifield’s primary position, second base. Addison Russell is a non-tender candidate, and Ben Zobrist is a free agent. Nico Hoerner, David Bote and Robel García are promising options to varying extents, but none is a proven MLB contributor. Merrifield would be an unquestioned upgrade.

Of course, that combination of productivity and affordability has made him a staple in Kansas City, which hasn’t expressed any desire to let Merrifield go. Royals’ general manager Dayton Moore wouldn’t move Merrifield for anything less than a “crazy” offer (in the executive’s words) at July’s trade deadline. More recently, Moore admitted that no one on the roster is entirely untouchable given the club’s ongoing rebuild, although he then lauded the All-Star as a player and person, giving no indication the front office has seemingly changed course on trade discussions.

With the Royals’ resistance to trading Merrifield in the past, it seems unlikely anything will come to fruition with the Cubs or any other team in the immediate future. If Kansas City were to market Merrifield aggressively, other teams beyond Chicago would surely enter the fray. That said, it’s interesting that Theo Epstein and the rest of the Cubs’ front office have considered a Merrifield pursuit as one of the many options on the table for a team seemingly poised for a roster restructure this offseason.

NL Notes: Dubon, Giants, Smith, 40-Man Additions

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In trying to predict Mauricio Dubon’s upcoming role with the 2020 Giants, MLB.com’s Maria Guardado draws a comparison between the 25-year-old Dubon and utilityman Chris Taylor of the Dodgers (link). Dubon, as Guaradado points out, already showed himself capable at second and short last year after being acquired from the Brewers in exchange for Drew Pomeranz, and the 25-year-old also has a few games of center field experience dating back to his time in the 2016 Arizona Fall League. While it may be a stretch to conclude that Dubon will be able to handle the outfield’s most challenging position based on a handful of years-old appearances, it isn’t completely outlandish to think that teams may consider some unconventional routes toward manning center in 2020. After all, the free agency class at that position is rather weak, with only Brett Gardner and Shogo Akiyama projecting as possible starting options. Meanwhile, several teams seeking contention, including the Phillies, Padres, and Cubs, have obvious openings in center; the Giants, for their part, are facing some uncertainty as to their approach to Kevin Pillar this offseason. In his first 30 games of MLB action, Dubon hit .274/.306/.434 with four homers and three steals in 2019.

More notes from around the NL on a calm Saturday night…

  • Wednesday’s deadline to add players to 40-man roster’s in advance of next month’s Rule 5 Draft brought a flurry of activity, and we’ve already covered some of the more interesting veterans that were DFA’d to accommodate various roster moves. But what of the 112 players who found themselves on MLB organizational rosters for the first time? Many of them, as noted in a piece from MLB.com’s Jim Callis, are a good reminder of the labyrinthian routes s0me players have to take in order to achieve their dreams of donning big league uniforms. Callis’ list features a former prep standout who overcame addiction issues to achieve success in the minors (Phil Pfeifer of the Braves), a former Mexican League pitcher who, despite never pitching above High-A, intrigued this season with a 94-98 mph heater (Manuel Rodriguez of the Cubs), and a 2013 DR signing who may reach the bigs with a new org after previously spending a half-decade in Rookie ball (Christopher Sanchez, who arrived to the Phillies via trade from the Rays on Wednesday). They may not represent household names, but they may represent a few new names to root for.
  • Kudos to Joel Sherman of The New York Post for authoring a thoroughly interesting piece that attempts to explain why Yasmani Grandal and Will Smith, in particular, represented the first major signings of the 2019-2020 offseason (link). It was Grandal and Smith’s relatively “distinct” profiles, in Sherman’s view, that prompted the White Sox and Braves, respectively, to lunge toward early signings; while teams may be able to convince themselves, for example, that Zack Wheeler makes for a decent alternative to Stephen Strasburg or Gerrit Cole, there were no such viable alternatives to Smith, a left-handed reliever capable of pitching to both sides of the plate, or Grandal, a switch-hitting catcher who excels at both sides of the game. While the next-best lefty reliever may be Drew Pomeranz, it’s not as if teams would feel entirely comfortable with that pitcher’s comparative lack of a relief track record; same goes for Travis d’Arnaud, a player who, despite his arguable position as the market’s second-best backstop, simply doesn’t offer Grandal’s history of sustained success (or health). As Sherman touches on, Smith’s well-rounded ability, in particular, could prove to be a boon for the Braves. With next year’s introduction of a three-batter minimum rule, it’s generally impossible, at this juncture, to predict how teams might be compromised in late-inning situations. While recent years have seen a LOOGY or two stashed on every staff, pitchers like Smith figure to become increasingly valuable under the new rules, where relievers will likely have to face at least one opposite-handed batter. In 65.1 innings in 2019, the Braves’ newest addition was death on same-handed batters (.166 wOBA) but more-than-useful against righties as well (.298 wOBA).
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