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Theo Epstein Discusses Cubs' Slow Start

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After a 1-6 start to the Cubs’ season, Chicago fans are already pointing fingers in many directions, including criticism of ownership for not greenlighting more offseason spending, or of the team’s desultory pitching performance.  President of baseball operations Theo Epstein, however, told ESPN.com’s Jesse Rogers and other reporters that the blame falls with him.  “There is always a search for scapegoats when you get off to a tough start.  [Pitching coach] Tommy Hottovy is not the problem. He’s a big part of the solution,” Epstein said.  “[Owner] Tom Ricketts is not the problem. It’s not a resource issue. I know he’s another one that’s been taking a lot of heat. It’s not a resource problem. If people have a problem with the allocation of resources, then that’s on me. And it has been ever since I got here, with a lot of good and some bad.”

While it’s obviously still early in the season, the Cubs are already facing a big deficit in the NL Central due to the Brewers’ 7-1 start, as Rogers notes.  The Cubs can make up some of that ground in their ongoing series with Milwaukee, plus there’s also really nowhere to go but up after this opening week.  “It’s been real close to, if not, a worst-case scenario for us, defensively and in terms of our pitching….We’re sorry we’re putting our fans through this,” Epstein said.

Cubs Option Carl Edwards Jr. To Minors, Send Mike Montgomery To IL, Promote Kyle Ryan And Select Allen Webster

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In a relatively surprising development out of Chicago, the Cubs will option Carl Edwards Jr. to Triple-A Iowa, per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun Times (via Twitter). Mike Montgomery, meanwhile, has been put on the injured list with a left lat strain, per ESPN’s Jesse Rogers (via Twitter), who also announced the Edwards Jr. move on ESPN 1000 this morning, and MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian (Twitter link). Bastian was among those to report that the club has promoted lefty Kyle Ryan and selected Allen Webster from AAA Iowa. Righty Jen-Ho Tseng was designated for assignment to make room for Webster on the 40-man.

Edwards’ decline, while not wholly out of character, took a sudden downturn this season after he had entrenched himself as a key piece of Joe Maddon’s bullpen since 2016. Edwards Jr. no doubt has wipeout stuff, but he has long struggled with loss of command in stretches, never more clearly than in the early stages of this season. In four appearances spanning just 1 2/3 innings, Edwards has surrendered 6 earned runs, 2 home runs and 5 walks (32.40 ERA). Still, the move must come as somewhat of a shock to the system for the “Stringbean Slinger,” who has averaged 66 appearances per season over the last two seasons with a 2.81 ERA and 12.2 K/9 to 5.3 BB/9.

With the Cubs losing six in a row after a win on Opening Day, changes were clearly in store for the Northsiders. Edwards’ had one option remaining, which could be a consideration here, as the only other pitchers on the staff with options remaining are lefty Randy Rosario (1) and starter Kyle Hendricks (3). Hendricks is clearly going nowhere, while Rosario has been one of the few strike-throwers out of the Cubs’ pen so far this season.

Montgomery, meanwhile, has similarly struggled through the first week of the season, appearing four times with a 16.88 ERA over 2 2/3 innings of work. He has been a key swingman for the Cubs over the last three seasons, appearing in 82 games, 33 of them starts since his acquisition from Seattle in the middle of 2016. As you may recall, Montgomery relieved Edwards Jr. to get the save in the game seven of the Cubs World Series win in Cleveland – his first career save.

Webster, 29, was a former top prospect in the Dodgers and Red Sox organizations, and was a key figure in the blockbuster waiver deal that sent Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, and Josh Beckett to Los Angeles in August of 2012. He struggled mightily in Boston, with both arsenal and command, and was quickly shipped to Arizona, where the troubles worsened. The former 18th-rounder’s been a reclamation project in the Chicago farm since last Spring, and the club will hope he can suddenly regain his long-ago form.

Ryan, 27, has appeared in 86 big-league games with the Tigers since his debut in 2014, posting a 3.87 ERA/4.29 FIP/4.50 xFIP over 128 innings. He rarely misses a bat, having struck out just 4.92 men per nine since his debut, though is typically adroit at keeping the ball out of the air (54% career ground-ball rate). Ryan’s been much more effective against lefties (3.39 FIP against) than righties (4.76 opponents’ FIP) in his four-year career thus far.

Tseng, a 24-year-old righty who appeared in three games for Chicago over the last two seasons, was hammered in 24 starts for Iowa last season (6.27 ERA/5.13 FIP).

Orioles Re-Acquire Pedro Araujo

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The Orioles announced today that right-hander Pedro Araujo was re-acquired after being returned to the Cubs. $750K of international bonus signing availability went to the Chicago organization in the deal, Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune tweets.

Araujo’s Rule 5 status made him a tough fit on the Baltimore roster. As a 2017 selection who missed some action due to injury last year, he only needed to be held on the active roster for a few weeks for his rights to permanently go to the O’s. But he’d still have required a 40-man roster spot even if he was optioned down.

By working things out this way, the Orioles will keep Araujo without having to tie up a 40-man spot. They’ll cough up some international pool availability, but the organization has already been utilizing its excess bonus cash in other trades. The long-term plan is likely to begin putting that asset to work directly through prospect signings, but the O’s first need to establish an international infrastructure that was not pursued under the prior front office regime.

The 25-year-old Araujo obviously has impressed the Baltimore brass to some extent, given that they wanted to keep him in the organization. But it was plain that he wasn’t really ready for the majors. Last year, he was torched for 7.71 earned runs per nine over 28 frames, coughing up nine home runs along the way. But he also generated a healthy 13.9% swinging-strike rate at the MLB level.

Marcell Ozuna Headed For MRI

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  • Cubs skipper Joe Maddon said Wednesday that the two-year extension signed by managerial peer Terry Francona doesn’t have him thinking about his own contract status (link via Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun Times). “I’ve been treated more than well,” said Maddon. “So I don’t lament or worry about things like that.” Maddon added that he’s not in the business of comparing himself to other skippers throughout the league. Wittenmyer, however, notes that Maddon’s current $6MM salary is substantially higher than the rates at which the influx of younger managers are being paid throughout the league. That, certainly, will be a factor in negotiations with the Cubs (or any other club, if he is not retained).

Cubs Extend David Bote

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The Cubs announced Tuesday that they’ve agreed to a contract extension with infielder David Bote. The contract will cover the 2020-24 seasons and also contain a pair of club options.

David Bote | Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

Bote will be guaranteed $15.003MM over that 2020-24 span, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun Times reports (on Twitter). MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that the two option years are valued $7MM and $7.6MM. According to the Chicago Tribune’s Mark Gonzales (also on Twitter), Bote will receive a $50K signing bonus and earn $950K next season. He’ll then earn $1MM in 2021, $2.5MM in 2022, $4MM in 2023 and $5.5MM in 2024. The first option season comes with a $1MM buyout, and the second carries a $500K buyout.

Bote recently approached the Cubs to initiate the talks, president of baseball operations Theo Epstein tells reporters (Twitter link via ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers). He was already under club control through the 2024 season, but the Cubs will now obtain some cost certainty and also secure control over what would have been his first two free-agent seasons.

Though he never rated as one of the organization’s top prospects, Bote made his way to the big leagues last season and now looks the part of a useful bench option capable of backing up at multiple infield spots and perhaps in the outfield corners. His primary positions have been third base and second base, but Bote also logged 10 innings at short in 2018 as well as seven in left field and two at first base. He’s a .246/.327/.410 hitter to this point in his big league career (223 plate appearances).

That defensive versatility surely appealed to the Cubs, as did the quality of Bote’s defense at his most frequent position: third base. In just 375 innings there last season, Bote was credited with +5 Defensive Runs Saved and a 4.4 Ultimate Zone Rating. Whether that type of rating is sustainable over a larger period remains to be seen; Fangraphs Eric Longenhagen wrote after the 2017 season that Bote lacked a true position, calling him a potential bat-first utility option if all panned out. Based on Bote’s .281/.355/.502 slash through 299 Triple-A plate appearances and last season’s small sample of exit velocity readings, perhaps he’ll live up to that billing.

Bote’s extension is a surprising move in that he isn’t viewed as any sort of key player for the Cubs at the moment. However, the modest price tag on the deal carries minimal risk — particularly for a large-market team like the Cubs — and the $15MM guarantee seems to suggest that the organization eventually feels Bote could take on a larger role. Generally, utility players don’t earn quite this much over the course of arbitration; Boston’s Brock Holt, for instance, will earn $3.575MM this season in his final year of arbitration eligibility and stands to reach free agency having earned a bit shy of $9MM.

The contract could prove to be a bargain if Bote can settle in as any sort of semi-regular contributor, though for a nearly 26-year-old former 18th-round pick who was never heralded as a top prospect and is still three years from arbitration, it’s easy to see the appeal of being guaranteed any financial security. Frankly, there’s little precedent for an extension along these lines. As shown in MLBTR’s Extension Tracker, extensions for players with under one year of service time have generally been reserved for players who’ve broken out as stars (e.g. Ronald Acuna) or quality regulars (e.g. Paul DeJong), or for top-tier prospects who are on the cusp of the Majors or very early on in their big league careers (e.g. Eloy Jimenez, Evan Longoria, Matt Moore, Scott Kingery). It’s possible that Bote’s deal will set something of a precedent for role players seeking some early-career stability — particularly given the deluge of long-term deals that have been signed during the recent “extension season.” Bote’s deal now stands out as the 27th multi-year contract extension signed by a player since mid-January.

Orioles Select Matt Wotherspoon, Designate Pedro Araujo

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The Orioles announced today that they have selected the contract of righty Matt Wotherspoon. He’ll take the roster spot of fellow righty Pedro Araujo, who was designated for assignment.

Wotherspoon was picked up a few years back in exchange for international bonus pool money. He has been bypassed in the Rule 5 draft but will now get his first crack at the majors at 27 years of age. Last year, he pitched to a 4.60 ERA with 10.1 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 over 94 Triple-A frames.

Araujo, a 2017 Rule 5 pick, only needed to be kept on the MLB roster briefly in 2019 for his rights to be permanently transferred to the O’s. But he’d still have required a 40-man spot that the Baltimore organization obviously wasn’t interested in committing. He’ll now be offered back to the Cubs if he clears waivers.

Offseason In Review: Chicago Cubs

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This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.

Faced with a lack of payroll flexibility, the Cubs were only able to tinker around the edges after picking up Cole Hamels’ option.

Major League Signings

Options Exercised

Extensions

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

After Cubs president Theo Epstein said on October 3rd that the front office would “spend all our energy trying to fix” an offense that “broke” in the second half of the 2018 season, most observers did not think the team’s most notable new offseason bat would be utility infielder Daniel Descalso.  Whether we read too much into Epstein’s raw comments or gave too much credence to his previous free agent spending, the fact is that the Ricketts family set a hard player payroll budget, and the team had very little maneuverability within it to make outside additions.

The Ricketts family drew a line: Epstein’s past free agent missteps would not be papered over with further spending in the 2018-19 offseason.  Bryce Harper’s free agency came at an inopportune time for the Cubs.  As Epstein put it in a January conversation on ESPN’s Waddle & Silvy show, “After I’ve had a big steak dinner and had chocolate cake, I want ice cream too, but it doesn’t mean I can have it.” Ownership clearly wasn’t interested in pulling out the wallet to fund a treat; when asked in mid-February about the team’s remaining funds for baseball ops, chairman Tom Ricketts replied: “We don’t have any more.”

A major shakeup was not in order.  Manager Joe Maddon enters the final year of his contract in what seems like a “prove yourself” season, after various Epstein comments have laid implied blame at his skipper’s feet.  For example, Epstein said in January that there’s been too much complacency since the team won the World Series.  The Cubs did have a lot of coaching turnover, with newcomers including hitting coach Anthony Iopace and pitching coach Tommy Hottovy.

An easy win could have come in the form of adding a veteran backup known for leadership qualities, after GM Jed Hoyer said there was “a bit of a void” of that type of player on the roster in 2018.  Perhaps that could be the 32-year-old Descalso, but the more obvious choice would have been a veteran backup catcher.  The Cubs reportedly made a better offer to Brian McCann than the one he accepted from the Braves, and weren’t able to land Martin Maldonado due to a lack of available playing time.  The Cubs certainly had alternatives.  Russell Martin, who the Cubs once attempted to sign, was traded to the Dodgers with that team picking up $3.6MM of his salary.  Quite a few other backstops were available as well, but the Cubs will stick with 25-year-old Victor Caratini as the backup to 26-year-old Willson Contreras.

The Cubs also missed out on another potential veteran leader, shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, who instead chose the Yankees.  The Cubs’ plan was reportedly to have Tulo serve as the team’s starting shortstop until Addison Russell returns from his domestic violence suspension on May 3rd.  Back in October, Patrick Mooney of The Athletic wrote, “The sense around the team is that Russell has already played his final game in a Cubs uniform.”  Mooney’s colleague Ken Rosenthal wrote a few months later that “a couple of unidentified clubs at least contemplated adding Russell, and one even discussed the matter with ownership,” but further details from Russell’s ex-wife Melisa Reidy on December 19th seem to have killed trade interest.  So the Cubs decided to take the PR hit of retaining Russell, with Epstein outlining his reasons for the player’s “conditional second chance.”

In hindsight, the events of November 2nd served as an omen for the remainder of the Cubs’ offseason.  An early morning tweet from ESPN’s Buster Olney proved prescient: “Other teams’ read on the Cubs’ situation this winter: They have very little payroll flexibility, and will have to spend very carefully to affect upgrades for the 2019 season.”  Later that day the team picked up Cole Hamels’ $20MM club option, shipping Drew Smyly and his $7MM salary to the Rangers in a cost-saving move that also tied up a few loose ends on the trade earlier that year that brought Hamels to Chicago.  This was less than a month after Epstein had said, “We’re set up to have some depth in the starting staff next year.  We’re not looking to get rid of starting pitchers. We’re looking to have as much depth as possible so we can withstand multiple injuries.”  The Cubs thought enough of Smyly’s post-Tommy John potential to pay $10MM to stash him for 2019, only to compromise their depth in the face of a tight budget.

The bullpen would not be spared the Cubs’ penny-pinching mandate.  The only new face on the current roster is Brad Brach.  The Cubs return an uninspiring group of veterans, with the oft-injured Brandon Morrow heading up the group once he returns from November elbow surgery.  The club did sign Xavier Cedeno and Tony Barnette to bargain basement Major League deals, finding a few pennies under their couch cushions by chopping $1.35MM off Brach’s deal due to what the pitcher called “a little bit of a viral infection.”  That is one expensive case of mono.

The bright spot of the Cubs’ offseason came last week, with Kyle Hendricks’ four-year extension.  Hendricks would have been eligible for free agency after the 2020 season, which was misaligned with the team’s core in that Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, and Kyle Schwarber are under control through 2021 and Willson Contreras is controlled through ’22.  The soft-tossing Hendricks has had nothing but success through 4.5 big league seasons, and now he’ll anchor the team’s rotation potentially through 2024.

The team’s contention window is what gets me about this offseason.  The Cubs have been good since 2015 and project to be good through 2021.  That is a potential seven-year window of success.  I don’t think fans would have objected if the team felt it needed to take a step back at that point, which naturally involves a lower payroll.  The time to push the pedal to the floor is now, even if a third of the payroll is a graveyard of bad Epstein contracts.  The internal improvements Epstein pushed all winter can and should happen, but this club had a major need for key outside additions and just about nothing was done.

2019 Season Outlook

At the time of this writing, the Cubs project at FanGraphs as an 85 win team with a 56% chance of reaching the playoffs.  On paper, it’s the worst team the Cubs have opened the season with in several years, and it comes at a time when the other four NL Central teams all look competitive.  Winning the division seems like the Cubs’ most likely path to the playoffs, and every win will be crucial if they’re to pull it off.

How would you rate the Cubs’ offseason? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors app users.)

MLB Awards “Championship Belt” During Arbitration Symposium

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Major League Baseball hosts an annual symposium on arbitration wherein delegates from each team come together with the league to make recommendations for upcoming arbitration hearings. There is a ceremony near the end of the symposium when a “championship belt” is awarded to the team that best accomplished the “goals set by the industry,” per The Athletic’s Marc Carig. Passed annually from one year’s winner to the next, The Belt is a chintzy, plastic “prize,” intended as a moment of levity and morale for what can be a difficult process on all sides. In this thoughtful article, Carig digs into the arbitration process, its history, the toll it takes on those involved, and of course, The Belt.

Clearly, given the tumultuous relationship between Major League Baseball, the owners, and the Players’ Association, the optics here aren’t great. However harmless the intent (or however private), an award for essentially best limiting the earning potential for players is not likely to sit well with the MLBPA – or the public for that matter. MLB confirmed existence of The Belt, explaining it as “an informal recognition of those club’s salary arbitration departments that did the best.” This season, the finalists were the Astros, Braves, Cubs, Indians, Rays, and Twins.

Executive Director of the MLBPA Tony Clark reacted with a statement (via Twitter), saying, “That clubs make sport of trying to suppress salaries in a process designed to produce fair settlements shows a blatant lack of respect for our Players, the game, and the arbitration process itself.”

Cubs, Dixon Machado Agree To Minor League Contract

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The Cubs have agreed to a minor league contract with infielder Dixon Machado, according to reports. The former Tigers infielder, who was released by the Marlins earlier this week, will head to Triple-A Iowa with his new organization.

The 27-year-old Machado received a career-high 233 plate appearances with the Tigers in 2018 but struggled mightily at the plate, hitting .206/.263/.290 with one homers, 13 doubles and a triple in that time. Machado’s bat has never been his calling card, however. The middle-infielder was touted as a plus defender throughout his minor league career as he rose through the Tigers’ ranks, and posted quality Ultimate Zone Rating marks at both middle-infield spots.

Chicago doesn’t have an immediate spot for Machado on its big league roster, so he’ll bide his time in Iowa and hope to earn a look at some point later in the season (or else attract the interest of another organization). In parts of three seasons at the Triple-A level, Machado is a .259/.330/.335 hitter.

Cubs Outright Brian Duensing

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  • The Cubs announced that lefty Brian Duensing has cleared waivers and been sent outright to Triple-A Iowa. He has enough service time to reject the assignment and still retain the entirety of this year’s $3.5MM salary, but there’s no indication yet whether he’ll choose to do so. The 36-year-old Duensing had a strong year with the 2017 Cubs but was clobbered for a 7.65 ERA in 37 2/3 innings last season after signing a two-year, $7MM contract to remain in Chicago. His second season with the Cubs saw him walk more batters (29) than he struck out (24), and his struggles continued into Spring Training, where he yielded eight runs in seven innings of work.
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