MLBTR Poll: Nicholas Castellanos’ Contract
With free agency’s top three players all having come off the board at the Winter Meetings, fans can now turn their attention to the second tier of the market. Chief among those second-tier players is Nicholas Castellanos. The youngest free agent among MLBTR’s top 50, the 27-year-old (28 in March) has compiled a strong multi-year offensive track record. Since the start of 2017, he has slashed .287/.337/.505 (121 wRC+). He also has the fortune of hitting the market fresh off a dynamic second-half tear following a trade from the Tigers to the Cubs. Even more importantly, that midseason swap allowed him to hit the market unencumbered by a qualifying offer.
Castellanos’ defensive shortcomings have been thoroughly discussed, and they figure to drag down his market somewhat. He washed out at third base, and the Tigers bumped him to the corner outfield. Unsurprisingly, that transition got off to a dreadful start, as Castellanos rated as 31 outs below average, per Statcast, over his first season-plus on the grass. To his credit, he took a significant step forward with the glove in 2019. Last year, Statcast had Castellanos as just two outs below average, while UZR and DRS each felt he cost his teams about five to ten runs defensively. It’s highly unlikely Castellanos will ever be even average with the glove, but he has shown enough competency to pique the interest of NL suitors. Teams needn’t have a DH slot to plug Castellanos’ potent bat into the lineup. They just have to be willing to stomach less-than-ideal range in the corner outfield.
Castellanos’ youth gives him a broad range of appeal. Teams not poised to contend in 2020 could still pursue Castellanos and expect a few peak years in 2021 and beyond. Whether he would be amenable to joining a non-contender after suffering through a few miserable years in Detroit isn’t clear, but he should have plenty of options. To this point in the offseason, we’ve heard Castellanos linked to the Rangers, Diamondbacks, Marlins, and Reds. The Cubs, too, obviously like the player, but they are seemingly unwilling to take on the cost a Castellanos deal would require. At the start of the offseason, MLBTR readers considered the cross-town White Sox the plurality favorite, as did the MLBTR staff. They haven’t been publicly tied to Castellanos this offseason, though, and they’ve seemingly addressed their right field situation through other means. To this point, the strongest tie to Castellanos has been with the Giants. One rival executive thinks it a foregone conclusion he’ll end up in San Francisco, although there’s ample time for the sweepstakes to go in any number of directions.
What of Castellanos’ price tag? He’s a tough free agent to pin down. The MLBTR staff forecast a four-year, $58MM deal at the start of the offseason. There are perhaps wider error bars on Castellanos than many free agents, though. He obviously has wide appeal, having been linked to almost a third of the league over the past month. The market, too, has proven stronger than anticipated for quite a few players in the early going. That said, we’re only a few months removed from the Tigers trading Castellanos to Chicago for a pair of mid-tier prospects. That came on the heels of months of Detroit not finding any offers to their liking despite Castellanos’ prominent availability on the trade block. There’s no doubt Castellanos improved his stock somewhat by tearing the cover off the ball in Chicago, but it wasn’t all that long ago that teams seemed to regard him as a fine but hardly game-changing player.
As we did recently with Josh Donaldson, let’s turn things over to you to gauge the Castellanos market.
Where will Castellanos sign (answer order randomized)? Poll link for app users.
Where Will Nicholas Castellanos Sign?
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Reds 22% (5,534)
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Cubs 20% (5,211)
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Giants 17% (4,374)
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White Sox 17% (4,244)
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Rangers 14% (3,492)
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Diamondbacks 4% (1,083)
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Other (specify in comments) 4% (1,035)
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Marlins 3% (747)
Total votes: 25,720
For how long will the contract be? Poll link for app users.
How many guaranteed years will Nicholas Castellanos receive?
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Four years 49% (7,223)
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Three years 31% (4,639)
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Five-plus years 11% (1,681)
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Two years 7% (990)
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One year 2% (300)
Total votes: 14,833
What will be the final number? Poll link for app users.
How much guaranteed money will Nicholas Castellanos receive?
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$55-70MM 40% (5,574)
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$40-55MM 26% (3,550)
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$70-85MM 20% (2,743)
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Under $40MM 8% (1,113)
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Over $85MM 6% (821)
Total votes: 13,801
Cubs Rotation Candidates
There’s a chance the Cubs begin the 2020 season with Tyler Chatwood back in the rotation, per Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun Times. In the final season of the three-year, $38MM deal signed before 2018, Chatwood arguably represents the most reliable option currently on the roster. Chatwood recovered from a disappointing first season in Chicago with 76 2/3 innings of 3.76 ERA/4.28 FIP baseball while mostly serving as a long man out of the pen. In a year in which the Cubs tested out numerous young arms, Chatwood emerged as a reliable alternative for intermittent opportunities in high-leverage situations, though most of his usage came in the middle innings. He did start five games in 2019, going 1-1 with a 3.97 ERA while averaging between four and five innings per start.
Despite Chatwood’s bounceback – at this stage of his career – there’s probably not a lot of unrealized upside to unearth as a rotation arm. The Cubs will look to add arms to push Chatwood for that rotation spot in the spring. Given their financial situation and the volume of competition for the top remaining arms in free agency, it’s unlikely they’ll be players in that space.
Internally, Adbert Alzolay represents the stiffest competition for the fifth starter’s job. He’s also probably the most exciting candidate for Cubs’ fans, who would love to see a 25-year-old homegrown pitcher earn a turn every fifth day. Theo Epstein and company would surely love to get that monkey off their backs as well. The Epstein regime has somewhat famously failed to develop any homegrown pitching over their Chicago tenure. After an uneven 2019 in which he made his big league debut, Alzolay will need a strong spring to take the role outright. With only 12 1/3 innings at the big league level last season, Alzolay maintained his rookie status and remains the Cubs fifth-ranked prospect per MLB.com.
Alec Mills and Jharel Cotton are two other names to keep an eye on. Mills, 28, doesn’t have the prospect pedigree, but he’s been quietly solid when called upon the last two seasons. The former Royals farmhand is a sleeper favorite should Alzolay prove unready. He also happens to be out of options. Cotton was recently acquired from the A’s in the type of low-cost, high-risk move that has become a staple of the Epstein Cubs. Cotton went to Oakland in the mid-2016 deal that sent Josh Reddick and Rich Hill to the Dodgers. For what it’s worth, the Cubs saw enough in Cotton to add him to the 40-man roster in advance of the Rule 5 draft.
In terms of long shots, the Cubs added another former Dodgers farmhand, Brock Stewart, during the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft. Justin Steele was also added to the 40-man roster. The 24-year-old southpaw made 11 starts in Double-A with a 5.59 ERA. Steele and Stewart rank pretty far down the totem pole, but they’ll have an opportunity to impress the brass in Spring Training.
As of right now, it’s looking like a fairly open competition to take Cole Hamels recently vacated rotation slot. Jon Lester, Yu Darvish, Kyle Hendricks, and Jose Quintana make up the front four, and that’s unlikely to change, barring a Quintana trade. Lester and Darvish have no-trade clauses, and Hendricks ranks among the least-likely Cubs to be traded given the affordable contract that keeps him in Chicago through the 2024 season.
Latest On Nationals’ Third Base Plans
Having lost third baseman Anthony Rendon to the Angels earlier this week, the Nationals have turned their attention to the top free agent remaining on the market, Josh Donaldson, per reports from Jon Heyman of MLB Network and Bob Nightengale of USA Today. It appears the 34-year-old Donaldson will require a four-year commitment, and the Nationals are “actively engaged” in trying to sign him, according to Nightengale.
If you’re in the market for a third baseman, as the Rendon-less Nationals are, there’s no better option than Donaldson. The former American League Most Valuable Player (2015) is coming off a tremendous season with the Braves in which he slashed .259/.379/.521 (132 wRC+) with 37 home runs and 4.9 fWAR across 659 plate appearances. As a result, Donaldson could secure a payday worth in the $90MM range despite his age, as the demand for quality third basemen seems to outweigh the supply.
Teams that lose out on the Donaldson derby could try to swing a deal for Chicago’s Kris Bryant, yet another former MVP and a rumored trade candidate, but good luck trying to take him from the Cubs. In the Nationals’ case, there’s a “belief” the Cubs would require center fielder Victor Robles in a Bryant package, according to Heyman. As great as Bryant is, though, that’s a nonstarter from the perspective of reigning champion Washington. The Nationals have seen Robles develop into a high-quality starter at the tender age of 22 since he debuted in 2018, and they’re not giving him up.
Cubs To Re-Sign Brandon Morrow
The Cubs have struck a deal to bring back veteran reliever Brandon Morrow, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). It’s a minor-league pact.
If Morrow can finally recover from longstanding arm issues, he’ll still need to earn his way onto the MLB roster. Should that come to pass, he’ll be paid at a $1MM rate with $1.25MM in potential incentive pay.
The sides have been working out a deal ever since the club paid him a $3MM buyout rather than exercising a $12MM option for the 2020 campaign. Morrow gave the Cubs 30 2/3 lights-out innings in 2018 before cascading injuries doomed the remainder of the two-year deal he signed to join the team in the prior offseason.
Now, there’s a chance at some redemption for both player and team. Both sides worked hard to get Morrow back to the mound to no avail. But the Cubs obviously still see some hope for the 35-year-old hurler.
Yu Darvish Reportedly Has “No Intention” Of Waiving No-Trade Protection
While the Cubs are getting some phone calls on veteran righty Yu Darvish, the team ultimately can’t move him on its own accord. That’s because his contract includes full no-trade rights for the time being. (That’ll turn to a dozen-team no-trade list at some point in 2020.)
In theory, the Cubs can sort out a swap and then leave it to the prospective acquiring team to convince Darvish to waive his protection. But that may be an uphill battle — if it’s possible at all. According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter), Darvish “has no intention” of agreeing to a swap.
It seems that Darvish is quite fond of playing in Chicago, even if the team is at least listening to scenarios that might involve moving his contract. He certainly seems to have settled in at Wrigley after a calamitous, injury filled 2018 season. In the just-completed campaign, Darvish worked to a 3.98 ERA with 11.5 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 over 178 2/3 innings. He continues to be prone to the long ball but also managed to carry a personal-high 13.4% swinging-strike rate.
Darvish already bypassed a chance to opt out of the remaining four seasons and $81MM left on his contract. That seemed like a rather obvious decision at the time, but it’s now fair to wonder just how well the 33-year-old might have done on a market that is doling out huge contracts to top starters. At minimum, the Cubs would presumably be able to offload a major chunk of what it owes Darvish — if, that is, he’s even amenable to considering the possibility of wearing a new uniform.
FA Rumors: Rendon, Rangers, Dickerson, Marlins, Shogo, Cards, Cubs
Third baseman Anthony Rendon came off the open market Wednesday when he accepted the Angels’ seven-year, $245MM guarantee. They were among a few clubs that were willing to commit that long to Rendon, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, who tweets that four teams made seven-year offers to the former National. The Rangers didn’t quite go that far, however, with TR Sullivan of MLB.com reporting that they offered Rendon six years plus a club option. Josh Donaldson‘s now by far the top third baseman left in free agency, but it doesn’t appear the 3B-needy Rangers are going all-out for him, either.
Now the latest on a couple outfielders…
- Add Corey Dickerson to the list of free-agent corner outfielders on the Marlins’ radar, per Joe Frisaro of MLB.com. Dickerson plus the previously reported Yasiel Puig and Kole Calhoun are “very much in play” for the offensively challenged Marlins, and they could sign someone by Christmas, Frisaro adds. No one from that trio had a better 2019 at the plate than the 30-year-old Dickerson, who slashed .304/.341/.565 (127 wRC+) with 12 home runs during a 78-game, 279-plate appearance campaign divided between Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. Thanks to Dickerson’s fairly long track record of above-average offense, MLBTR predicts he’ll earn a two-year, $15MM contract on the market.
- The Cardinals could emerge as legitimate suitors for free-agent center fielder Shogo Akiyama, as Mark Saxon of The Athletic reports that they’ve “scouted him extensively.” The 31-year-old Akiyama, who is coming off a successful run in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, would give the Cardinals a lefty-hitting option in the outfield. That’s the type of player president of baseball operations John Mozeliak has said he’d like to add.
- The Cubs, St. Louis’ archrival, have also shown interest in Akiyama. They met with him this week at the Winter Meetings, though he “hasn’t emerged as the team’s top target for that leadoff/center-field position,” Patrick Mooney of The Athletic writes (subscription link). Chicago’s in the market for CF help after a horrid year from Albert Almora, but it’s unclear where they’ll turn for that.
Teams Have Inquired About Yu Darvish
After a bounce-back showing in the second half of the 2019 season, right-hander Yu Darvish could emerge as a winter trade chip for the Cubs. Chicago has “received inquiries” regarding Darvish, Joel Sherman of the New York Post writes. It doesn’t appear a trade is in the works right now, but as Sherman notes, that could change when the best remaining free-agent starters (Madison Bumgarner and Hyun-Jin Ryu, for example) come off the board.
A year ago at this time, the idea of a Darvish trade would’ve been unthinkable. At that point, the former Ranger and Dodger was coming off a brutal, injury-ravaged first season with the Cubs, who inked him to a six-year, $126MM guarantee entering 2018. Darvish totaled a mere eight starts and 40 innings that year, when he put up career worsts in ERA (4.95), FIP (4.86) and walks per nine (4.73).
Last season began in similarly rough fashion for Darvish, owner of an ERA upward of 5.00 as late as July 3, but the light bulb went back on thereafter. The 33-year-old ended the summer on a tear, as he posted 124 strikeouts against a paltry seven walks in 88 1/3 innings from July onward. All said, Darvish concluded the campaign with 178 2/3 frames of 3.98 ERA/4.16 FIP ball, 11.54 K/9, 2.82 BB/9 and a 45.5 percent groundball rate (up from 37.6 the previous year). He also managed a career-best swinging-strike percentage (13.4) and tied a personal high in average fastball velocity (94.2 mph). If there’s one major red flag, it’s that Darvish gave up more home runs than ever (1.66 per nine with a 22.8 percent homer-to-fly ball rate), though that was a common theme throughout the league last season.
Despite his late-2019 rebound, Darvish elected against a return to free agency, instead deciding not to opt out of the remaining four years and $81MM on his contract. It was a predictable call, especially considering Darvish has made it clear he has enjoyed his time in Chicago. Still, in a league where Red Sox lefty David Price – despite coming off an injury-plagued season and having three years and $96MM left on his contract – has drawn trade interest, it’s not that surprising teams have eyed Darvish in the wake of his personal renaissance.
Whether the Cubs would deal an integral rotation member like Darvish is unknown, and the fact that his contract includes no-trade rights — complete protection for now, then a dozen teams in 2020 — could complicate matters. However, there has been word that the Cubs would like to cut payroll. As Jason Martinez of Roster Resource estimates, they’re currently set to enter 2020 with a $214MM luxury-tax payroll. In that scenario, the Cubs would be $6MM over the threshold, and that’s without having made any clear improvements yet this offseason.
Furthermore, president of baseball operations Theo Epstein is no doubt frustrated after a season that saw the Cubs miss the playoffs. The possibility of a shakeup has led to trade speculation surrounding other Cubs notables such as Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez and Willson Contreras. So, any number of drastic roster-altering scenarios might be on the table (perhaps including a Darvish deal), but Epstein did say this week that the Cubs currently have “the makings of a very good team,” one that has “a chance to win a division.” On paper, getting rid of Darvish could decrease their odds of doing that.
Trade Rumors: Rangers, Smith, Lowrie, Blue Jays, Frazier, Cubs
The Athletics aren’t the only AL West team interested in Jed Lowrie‘s services, as the Rangers have been in talks with the Mets about a deal that would send both Lowrie and Dominic Smith to the Lone Star State, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (subscription required). However, “talks to this point have failed to progress” between the two clubs. It’s fair to guess that Smith was the Rangers’ real target in these negotiations, as Smith would be the sweetener added to the deal in exchange for the Rangers assuming most or all of the remaining $12MM on Lowrie’s contract. New York is reportedly trying to create payroll space by shopping high-priced names like Lowrie or Jeurys Familia to other teams.
Smith is perhaps a bit of a curious fit for the Rangers, given that Texas already has a plethora of left-handed hitting first base/DH/corner outfield types, and only just dealt from that surplus in sending Nomar Mazara to the White Sox. Still, adding a 24-year-old with five seasons of control has obvious value for the Rangers, as Shin-Soo Choo‘s contract is up after the 2020 campaign, and Ronald Guzman could become expendable in the event of Smith joining the roster. While Lowrie missed virtually all of 2019 due to injury, he also offers more to Texas than just a salary dump if he’s able to stay healthy. If Lowrie was able to recapture anything close to his 2017-18 form, he’d represent a good third base answer if the Rangers weren’t able to sign Josh Donaldson.
More trade talk as we near the end of the Winter Meetings…
- Though the Blue Jays have been mostly linked to free agents this winter, the club is apparently being just as diligent on the trade front, Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi writes. In addition to Toronto’s known interest in Yankees southpaw J.A. Happ, the Jays have checked in with the Red Sox about David Price and Jackie Bradley Jr., and with the Pirates about right-hander Chris Archer and Joe Musgrove. It doesn’t seem like any of these particular options are close, however, as Davidi notes that “the cost in both dollars and prospect capital remains too high” for Price, Bradley, and Happ. The Jays and Pirates have been speculatively linked as trade partners since Ben Cherington recently went from Toronto’s front office to the GM chair in Pittsburgh, though this familiarity may not necessarily be a plus. As Davidi puts it, Cherington “may think too similarly to his former colleagues for a deal to be struck.”
- As the Pirates weigh a lot of interest in Adam Frazier, the Athletics are involved but perhaps no better than Pittsburgh’s third option as a trade partner, the San Francisco Chronicle’s Susan Slusser reports (Twitter link). The left-handed hitting Frazier would be an ideal fit to help balance out Oakland’s heavily right-handed lineup, and would provide some experience to a young collection of second base candidates. Frazier isn’t old himself (he is a few days away from his 28th birthday) and is still controllable through three years of arbitration eligibility.
- While the Cubs are reportedly working hard towards swinging some (potentially major) trades, the possibility exists that the 2020 roster will look a lot like last year’s edition, president of baseball operations Theo Epstein told Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times and other media. “The makings of a very good team is currently under control on our roster, with a chance to win a division. And do that, and you have a chance to have a great October,” Epstein said, though “status quo is not a bad option, but we’re obviously out there looking to make changes and change the dynamic and improve.” It could be that the Cubs won’t become big players in the trade market until most or all of the top free agents have selected their new teams. In the case of Kris Bryant, for example, “officials from two teams aggressively trying to fill third-base needs…said the Cubs were asking too much for Bryant to seriously consider him while other options remained available,” Wittenmyer writes.
Third Base Notes: Donaldson, Braves, Bryant, Nats, Castro, Franco
Now that Anthony Rendon has signed with the Angels, Josh Donaldson is both the top third baseman remaining on the open market and quite possibly the top free agent still available at any position. There was already enough interest in Donaldson that he was reportedly looking more and more likely to receive a four-year commitment, which is good news for a player who “is seeking the largest possible guarantee” in his next contract, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal writes (subscription required).
The star third baseman just turned 34 this week and, since his injury-plagued 2018 season already cost him his first chance at a big multi-year free agent deal last winter, it isn’t surprising that Donaldson wants to max out his payday now that he is coming off an outstanding 2019 campaign. Rosenthal hears that “all things being equal, Donaldson’s preference is to return to the Braves,” though if it comes down to a pure bidding war, Atlanta doesn’t seem to have the available payroll to outspend Donaldson suitors like the Dodgers, Rangers, Twins, or Nationals.
The Braves have already spread some significant cash around this winter, adding free agents Cole Hamels, Will Smith, and Travis d’Arnaud while re-signing Chris Martin, Nick Markakis, Tyler Flowers, and Darren O’Day. As per Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez, Atlanta is set to spend just under $142.2MM on player salaries next season, which would be the largest payroll in franchise history. $142.2MM is a modest number compared to what most contending teams spend, though since there has long been speculation about how much money the Liberty Media ownership group would be willing to allocate to payroll, adding another major contract to the books (Donaldson’s next deal could well be in the area of $25MM in average annual value) might not be feasible, unless other salaries were cut loose.
If Atlanta misses out on Donaldson, they might need to get creative in adding another big bat to their lineup. Reports from earlier this week suggested that the Braves could look to Marcell Ozuna, though Rosenthal notes that “they currently have only limited interest” in Ozuna’s services. As for another big third base target in the Cubs‘ Kris Bryant, Rosenthal notes that Atlanta is among the clubs who have concerns about Bryant’s declining glovework (as per UZR/150 and Defensive Runs Saved) over the last few seasons. This doesn’t necessarily rule out a potential trade between the Braves and Cubs since Bryant could be used as a corner outfielder, though it doesn’t seem like Bryant is at the top of the Braves’ list at this point.
Speaking of fallback options for Donaldson, Rosenthal writes that Starlin Castro and Maikel Franco are on the Nationals‘ radar as third base candidates. Washington has gotten long looks at both players from their days in the NL East, though both Castro and Franco would certainly be stopgap options at best given their underwhelming performances over the last few seasons. Castro has been a slightly below-average run producer (98 OPS+ and wRC+) since the start of the 2016 campaign, while Franco hasn’t lived up his billing as one of baseball’s top prospects, hitting only .249/.302/.431 over 2539 career PA with the Phillies.
In terms of bigger-ticket additions at third base, Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (Twitter link) reports that the Nationals have yet to touch base with the Cubs about Bryant, contrary to earlier reports. This isn’t to say that the Nats couldn’t still look into Bryant should Donaldson sign with another team.
Cubs Will Not Explore Anthony Rizzo Extension This Offseason
TODAY: Cubs GM Jed Hoyer discussed the situation with David Kaplan on Sports Talk Live (NBC Sports Chicago’s Tony Andracki has a partial transcript) today, saying that the two sides held “some conceptual talks about what an extension would look like and I think that, candidly, we were pretty far apart in terms of length and so he [Pollack] decided to come out and say that.” Hoyer also noted these negotiations were in the very early stages, and that “there’s nothing that’s been done that’s going to stop future conversations.”
YESTERDAY: The Cubs have decided against pursuing an extension with first baseman Anthony Rizzo this offseason, agent Marc Pollack tells Jesse Rogers of ESPNChicago.com. Whether future contract talks will take place is an open question.
Rizzo is entering his second-to-last season of team control under his original extension. That deal has worked out swimmingly for the Chicago organization, which is paying Rizzo $14.5MM this season with another option remaining at the same price (with a $2MM buyout as the alternative).
It seems that Rizzo instructed his rep to broach the possibility of another contract that would keep him locked in at first base for many more years to come. That interest was rebuffed.
“Anthony has let his desire to be a Cub for life known to the organization,” says Pollack. “Although we do not know what the future holds, a deal to make that happen will not be addressed now.”
The 30-year-old Rizzo evidently isn’t seen as a desirable target despite another exceptional campaign at the plate. He slashed a robust .293/.405/.520 with 27 home runs in 2019 and has steadily produced big numbers since a breakout 2014 effort.
The Chicago organization is in an interesting position after carrying a big payroll for several seasons and wrapping up a costlier-than-expected Wrigley Field renovation project. While many would argue that further outlay is warranted, the club has again given signals that it will keep a tight hold on the purse this winter.
That said, the Cubs have expressed interest in pursuing some long-term deals. Rogers says that Kyle Schwarber also hasn’t yet been approached. Kris Bryant is all but certainly a non-starter. Whether Willson Contreras could be pursued isn’t known, but the team has discussed him in trade scenarios. It seems infielder Javier Baez is the likeliest candidate to be locked up at some point in the offseason.