2:19pm: Cotillo reports that Boston’s offer to Bregman was for five years and $165MM with significant deferrals.
2:09pm: Alex Bregman is headed to Chicago after landing with the Cubs on a five-year, $175MM contract that was first reported last night. That’s a crushing blow for the Red Sox, who were long reported to be prioritizing a reunion with Bregman after he opted out of the final two years and $80MM on his contract with the club back in November. In the aftermath of Bregman’s departure, reports out of Boston are shedding some light on the efforts the Red Sox made to retain their All-Star, and where that offer ultimately fell short.
According to a report from The Boston Globe’s Peter Abraham last night, the Red Sox “did not come close financially and were not willing to give Bregman a full no-trade clause, which the Cubs did.” Today, reporting from Chris Cotillo and Sean McAdam of MassLive confirmed that the Red Sox were unwilling to offer Bregman a no-trade clause and added that the team cited “organizational policy” regarding no-trade protection in doing so. That, McAdam writes, “proved to be a sticking point” for Bregman, who has young children and values stability for them as he heads into his third consecutive year in a new city.
As for the financials, McAdam writes that the five-year offer from Boston was “reasonably competitive,” but added that it fell short of Chicago’s offer financially. Like the Cubs’ offer, which includes $70MM in deferred money, the Red Sox offer also included significant deferrals. Those deferred payments were scheduled out differently, however, as McAdam notes that the Red Sox proposed a payment plan “stretching out decades.” The exact payment details of Chicago’s offer aren’t yet known, McAdam notes that the decades-long payment structure Boston offered widened the gap between the two offers and reduced the value of the Red Sox’ offer further than the already-lower sticker price, relative to the Cubs’ offer.
Exactly how the two offers stack up will be easier to judge once more details come out about Bregman’s contract details in Chicago, but in any case it seems the offer that the Red Sox reportedly considered “aggressive” came up well short of what Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and his front office managed to put together. As a result, the Red Sox will have to turn elsewhere in their search for another middle-of-the-order bat for their infield. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale was among the reports to suggest in the aftermath of Bregman’s signing that the other top infielder on the market, shortstop Bo Bichette, could be the player they pivot to. Bichette figures to sign for even more than Bregman, did, however; MLBTR predicted an eight-year, $208MM contract for the infielder at the outset of the offseason.
Some of that, of course, has to do with the contract length. Perhaps an eight-year deal for Bichette, which would run through his age-35 season, would be just as or even more appealing to the Red Sox than signing Bregman through his age-36 season on a five year deal. On the other hand, it’s worth noting that this Red Sox front office has not yet given out a contract longer than three years via free agency. If the team has an aversion to long-term deals more generally, it would be difficult for the Red Sox to outbid rival suitors for Bichette like the Phillies and Yankees that have no qualms about signing free agents to lengthy contracts.
If the Red Sox aren’t willing to splurge on Bichette, the pickings for replacement Bregman become a lot slimmer. Eugenio Suarez offers big power and could be a fit on a shorter-term deal in free agency, but he struggled in the second half last year, will play this year at 34 years old, and is a lackluster defender at the hot corner. Turning to the trade market, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reportedly shortly before the new year that the Red Sox had narrowed their focus to five infield options: Bregman, Bichette, Ketel Marte, Isaac Paredes, and Brendan Donovan. With Bregman now in Chicago and Marte having been officially taken off the market by Arizona, that leaves Paredes and Donovan as the two primary alternatives to Bichette in that report.
Of the two, Paredes seems to be the better fit. Both are controlled for two seasons after this one, but Paredes is a right-handed hitter who seems likely to cost less in trade than Donovan. While Paredes has been pushed out of the Astros’ nominal starting lineup by the addition of Carlos Correa over the summer, Donovan’s market is known to have many suitors including the Giants, Mariners, and Royals. What’s more, Paredes is a right-handed hitter who primarily plays third base, making him a much cleaner replacement for Bregman than Donovan, a lefty hitter who has played all over the field but primarily plays second base. Paredes is also a marginally better hitter over the last four seasons (124 wRC+ vs 119) coming off a stronger platform season (128 wRC+ vs 119). Paredes (hamstring injury) and Donovan (sports hernia surgery) both ended their seasons with injury complications but are expected to be full-go for Spring Training next month.
Of course, it’s possible the club could look at other options now that their preferred targets have begun to dwindle. The Cubs, themselves, now have a surplus of infield talent after bringing in Bregman displaced Matt Shaw at third base. Adding another unproven youngster to a very young Red Sox roster likely wouldn’t be especially appealing, but Cubs second baseman Nico Hoerner has garnered trade interest this winter and could be more available now that Bregman has freed up Shaw to take over the keystone following a hypothetical Hoerner trade. An elite defender at second base who has also posted strong grades at shortstop in the past, Hoerner is a well-regarded clubhouse presence who could help fill the leadership void created by the loss of Bregman.
With that said, his 109 wRC+ last year was a career-high, and his lack of power is unlikely to be especially attractive to a team like the Red Sox that finished middle-of-the-pack in homers last year and expressed an interest in bringing in a big-time slugger like Kyle Schwarber or Pete Alonso earlier this winter in hopes of improving that area of the offense. It’s also an open question as to whether the Cubs would even be especially inclined to deal Hoerner, as an infield of Bregman, Hoerner, Dansby Swanson and Michael Busch would be among the strongest in baseball headed into 2026. What’s more, Hoerner is slated to hit free agency following the 2026 campaign and the Red Sox may prefer to add a player under longer-term control for fear of finding themselves in this same predicament again next year.
