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David Bote: Starman?

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Cubs infielder David Bote had one of the best offensive games of the 2019 season Wednesday, going 4 for 4 with a home run and seven runs batted in to help his team to a 9-8 win over the Rockies. The 26-year-old failed to reach base in either of the Cubs’ games since then, but he’s still off to a rousing start this season. After hitting .239/.319/.408 (95 wRC+) with six home runs during his 210-plate appearance debut in 2018, Bote has slashed .276/.349/.481 (117 wRC+) with seven HRs in 175 tries this year.

So far, Bote – an 18th-round pick in 2012 – is more than justifying the Cubs’ decision to hand him a five-year, $15MM extension in April. Bote was one of the least known players to receive a new deal during the league’s extension craze back in the spring, though he may be establishing himself as a long-term cog for the Cubs. However, it’s still up in the air whether Bote’s Year 2 improvement is real or a mirage.

As was the case last season, Bote’s walking in better than 9 percent of plate appearances. That’s a bit above the league-average mark (8.7). At the same time, Bote has slashed his strikeout percentage from 28.6 to 25.1, cut his swinging-strike rate a hair and made more contact. So far, so good.

On the other hand, even though Bote possesses better speed than most, he’s unlikely to sustain the .340 batting average on balls in play that has helped prop up his numbers this year. That’s especially true given that Bote has become much more of a fly ball hitter since last season. On that subject, it’s worth noting Bote has hit the ball with far less authority when he has elevated it this year compared to his initial campaign. Bote battered fly balls and line drives at a lofty 96.6 mph average in 2018, but that figure has sunk just below 93 this year, according to Statcast. Given that information, it’s unsurprising Bote’s expected weighted on-base average (.315) comes up well short of his real wOBA (.361).

While stardom doesn’t look as if it’s in the offing for Bote (not yet, at least), his value to the Cubs is apparent. The inexpensive Bote’s ability to chip in respectable offense while playing scratch to plus defense at second and third base is a package most teams would sign up for in a heartbeat. That certainly includes the Cubs, who haven’t recalled infielder/outfielder Ian Happ since demoting him to Triple-A prior to the season, may never see utilityman extraordinaire Ben Zobrist put on their uniform again, and have received woeful production from offseason second base pickup Daniel Descalso.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Cubs Sign Craig Kimbrel

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June 7, 6:44pm: The team has formally announced the contract.

Jon Heyman of MLB Network has further details. (Links to Twitter.) Games-finished escalators can boost the option buyout value from the $1MM base; Kimbrel can add another $1MM apiece by reach 53 games finished in 2020 and 2021. The option vests if Kimbrel finishes 110 total games between 2020 and 2021, at least 55 of which come in the latter season, and a doctor determines that he does not have a “non-temporary” injury (the details of which are surely defined in the contract).

Kimbrel also picks up no-trade protection. He can’t be dealt this season without his approval. He’ll have an eight-team no-trade list for the 2020 season. The deal does not provide any limitations thereafter.

9:11am: Kimbrel has passed his physical, per Heyman (Twitter links), and an introductory press conference is set to take place prior to today’s game.

June 5, 9:06PM: The deal pays Kimbrel $10MM this season, and $16MM in both 2020 and 2021, ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reports (Twitter link).  There is a vesting option for 2022 that pays Kimbrel $16MM if it vests, Heyman reports (via Twitter), while it becomes a club option if it doesn’t vest.  The buyout of the option year is $1MM.

Also from Passan, Kimbrel could potentially join the Cubs before June 20.  The closer “has been electric” in workouts in front of scouts.

8:21PM: Craig Kimbrel’s long wait in the free agent market is over.  The closer has agreed to a multi-year deal with the Cubs that will become official once Kimbrel passes a physical, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (links to Twitter).  Rosenthal originally reported the dollar figure as close to $45MM, and MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports that Kimbrel will be paid $43MM (via Twitter) through the 2021 season.  Kimbrel is represented by SportsMeter.

Unsurprisingly, Kimbrel’s protracted time on the open market wrapped up shortly after the amateur draft.  Since Kimbrel turned down a one-year, $17.9MM qualifying offer from the Red Sox, any team that signed the veteran closer had to give up some type of compensation in the form of at least one draft pick, plus potentially international signing bonus money and even another pick depending on the identity of the team who landed Kimbrel.  However, this draft pick compensation no longer applied to Kimbrel (or fellow free agent holdout Dallas Keuchel) once draft day hit, removing one of the key hangups any interested team might have had about a signing.

As well, Kimbrel and his representatives aimed very high in their initial contract demands, reportedly looking for a nine-figure deal that would’ve set a new record for a free agent closer.  That said, it’s very common for free agents to hit the market with a big asking price as a starting point, yet Kimbrel’s market never seemed to really develop even as the offseason continued and his contract demands fell into the three-year range.

It could be that the market has simply shifted, and front offices are no willing to commit the type of long-term financial commitments (especially with draft and international market penalties involved) for free agent stoppers that were available to the likes of Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, or Mark Melancon just as recently as the 2016-17 offseason.  That said, it’s still a surprise to realize that over a third of the season elapsed before any club was willing to ink a player with as sterling a track record of ninth-inning success as Kimbrel.

With a career 1.91 ERA, 14.7 K/9, and 4.23 K/BB rate over nine seasons and 532 2/3 career innings, Kimbrel’s resume could very well eventually land him in Cooperstown down the road.  While 2018 wasn’t as dominant as some of his past years, Kimbrel still seemed to have a viable platform year with a 2.74 ERA, 13.86 K/9, and 3.10 K/BB over 62 1/3 frames for the World Series-champion Red Sox.

Beyond the surface numbers, however, there were some red flags.  It was hard to ignore Kimbrel’s increased struggles in the second half of last season, and then through Boston’s playoff run (a 5.91 ERA over 10 2/3 postseason innings).  Kimbrel has also had some control issues in two of the last three seasons, with a 4.48 BB/9 last year and a 5.09 BB/9 in 2016.  These issues could have been enough for teams to hesitate about guaranteeing five or six years to a pitcher in his 30’s (Kimbrel turned 31 in late May) when he was perhaps already showing some signs of slowing down.

Multiple teams were linked to Kimbrel’s market at various points over the last seven months, including several showing increased interest in the last couple of weeks as the draft (or, the qualifying offer expiration date) approached on June 3.  The Rays, Phillies, Braves, Brewers, Twins, Nationals, and Red Sox all had some degree of interest while Kimbrel was available.

While the Cubs always seemed like a good on-paper fit, they seemingly only emerged late in the game due to some unexpected luxury tax room opening up.  Ben Zobrist’s placement on the restricted list on May 8 means that his salary no longer counted towards Chicago’s luxury tax calculations, and if Zobrist misses the entire season (which seems increasingly likely at this juncture), the Cubs would have around $9MM to work with, money has seems to have fueled their push for Kimbrel.

Theo Epstein and company headed into the offseason with a need for bullpen help, with closer Brandon Morrow undergoing elbow surgery in November and still without a clear timetable to return.  Despite needs in the pen and elsewhere on the roster, however, the Cubs were very circumspect about their winter spending, due to a desire to stay under the maximum luxury tax threshold and team chairman Tom Ricketts’ controversial claim that “we don’t have any more” to spend.

Prior to the Kimbrel signing, Roster Resource projected the Cubs at just over $227.7MM in luxury tax payroll, putting the team in line for a 20% tax on every dollar spent above the $206MM luxury tax line, and then an additional 12% surtax for going more than $20MM over the line.  The average annual value of Kimbrel’s deal works out to $14.333MM per season, thus keeping the Cubs from exceeding the $246MM maximum penalty threshold.  Spending more than $246MM would cost the Cubs 62.5% surcharge on the overage, and their top draft pick in 2020 would be dropped by ten slots.

So it could be a win-win situation for Chicago, as the team looks to both avoid the top tax threshold while also getting a closer to bolster a bullpen that has generally been around the middle of the pack this season.  With Pedro Strop returning from the injured list and now Kimbrel’s addition, the Cubs suddenly have a much deeper pen to help them in their fight to win the NL Central.  Signing Kimbrel prior to June 3 would’ve cost the Cubs not only more money in salary, but also $500K in international bonus pool money and their second-highest pick in the 2019 draft (which ended up being the 64th overall selection).

For Kimbrel and his representatives, landing a multi-year contract represents some measure of a victory after the long wait, as several suitors were only interested in inking Kimbrel to a one-year deal for the remainder of the 2019 campaign.  While three years and $43MM is considerably less than Kimbrel expected at the start of the winter, the term isn’t far from four years/$70MM predicted by MLB Trade Rumors’ Top 50 Free Agents list back at the start of November, though nobody could’ve expected the wild path Kimbrel could take to eventually land his next contract.  If Kimbrel ends up pitching up to expectations, one suspects several teams will be kicking themselves over not signing Kimbrel when they had the chance.

The stopper is undoubtedly relieved to simply get his focus back on baseball, as he’ll now join a contender in pursuit of another World Series ring.  The question now is when Kimbrel will actually join the Cubs, as while he has been training on his own in preparation for the season, it remains to be seen how long it will take for him to ramp up to be ready for MLB hitters.  The other looming question could concern Kimbrel’s effectiveness, as other players whose qualifying offer-induced long waits in free agency (Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales in 2014) both struggled badly after sitting out months of the season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Cubs Outright Jim Adduci

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  • First baseman/outfielder Jim Adduci cleared waivers after being designated for assignment by the Cubs and has been assigned outright to Triple-A Iowa, per the league’s transactions page. He’d have had the right to reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency, but Tommy Birch of the Des Moines Register reports (via Twitter) that Adduci was indeed added to the Iowa roster, with Matt Carasiti landing on the temporarily inactive list in a corresponding move. The 34-year-old Adduci was hitless in five plate appearances during his extremely brief time with the Cubs before being designated for assignment to accommodate the addition of Carlos Gonzalez. He hit .261/.306/.478 through 41 games in Iowa earlier this season and .267/.290/.386 in 185 plate appearances for the Tigers in 2018.

Grade The Cubs’ Signing Of Craig Kimbrel

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It took some time, but one of the game’s greatest relief pitchers finally found a home with the Cubs after shedding the draft compensation that attached when he turned down a qualifying offer from the Red Sox. The Boston organization won’t get a draft pick for letting Craig Kimbrel walk, and the Chicago club won’t have to part with one. The Cubbies will, however, pay Kimbrel $10MM for his services down the stretch and $32MM for two more campaigns (along with a $1MM buyout or $16MM vesting/club option for another).

On the one hand, it’s notable that Kimbrel was still able to secure a significant, multi-year guarantee at this stage of the season. On the other … well, this still feels light. Entering the offseason, following some late-season stumbles from Kimbrel, we predicted $70MM over four years. That was stepped down from what might have been anticipated entering the 2019 campaign; after all, Kimbrel’s 2018 effort was among his most dominant. There were risks, sure, but that’s why we guessed a four instead of a five-year pact.

Kimbrel isn’t going to pitch for the Cubs for the entirety of this season, so there’s a reduction in price there. Even accounting for that, this contract still falls shy of the one the Rockies gave Wade Davis in the 2017-18 offseason. That three-year, $52MM pact (with a fourth-year vesting/club option) seemed like an obvious floor for Kimbrel. After all, Davis was an older pitcher who couldn’t match Kimbrel’s levels of dominance. And the Davis contract was signed even though it cost the Rox a second-round draft choice.

While it’s certainly hard to fault Kimbrel for preferring the best-available multi-year arrangement at this stage, he’s probably leaving some upside on the table by taking that route now rather than going for a pure rental agreement. It’s also still a significant commitment for a Cubs team that declared itself out of money over the winter but found some in the interim (in some part through an unusual situation with an expensive veteran). This isn’t a risk-free transaction; far from it, particularly given Kimbrel’s most recent on-field showing and the fact that he’ll be ramping up in the middle of an ongoing season.

How do you grade the signing from the team’s perspective?

(Poll link for app users.)

Cubs First-Rounder Represents Change Of Strategy

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  • The Cubs haven’t had much success in developing their own pitchers in recent years, and their pick of right-hander Ryan Jensen with the 27th overall selection represents how the team is adjusting its thinking in trying to solve this problem, MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian writes.  “Ryan Jensen certainly hits the nail on the head in terms of things that I’ve talked about that we probably avoided,” Cubs senior VP of player development and amateur scouting Jason McLeod told Bastian and other reporters.  Jensen has had mechanical issues during his time at Fresno State, and at only 6’0″ tall and 180 pounds, the righty doesn’t cut an imposing figure on the mound.  The young hurler had two important supporters, however, in Cubs area scout Gabe Zappi and pitching coordinator Brendan Sagara, plus McLeod was himself impressed watching one of Jensen’s starts in person on May 16.

Theo Epstein Discusses Ben Zobrist

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The Cubs placed utility player Ben Zobrist on the restricted list May 8 because of a personal matter, though it wasn’t clear whether they were still paying him. Almost a month later, Zobrist still hasn’t returned to the Cubs, but we now know the 38-year-old hasn’t counted against their books in his absence.

With Zobrist on a $12MM salary in 2019, the last season of a four-year, $56MM contract, Chicago has saved just over $2MM since he left the team, per Steve Greenberg of the Chicago Sun-Times. The Cubs will continue to save the same amount for each month Zobrist spends on the restricted list, Greenberg notes.

There’s still no word on whether Zobrist will return this season, but president of baseball operations Theo Epstein spoke about him Wednesday, saying (via Greenberg): “He’s been communicative with us. We have an understanding of what’s going on with him.”

“Families and personal lives come first — that’s the rule we run our organization by,” continued Epstein, who added that Zobrist “[doesn’t] owe us anything.”

If we judge Zobrist solely by the on-field value he has provided during his run with the Cubs, he truly doesn’t owe the club anything. Although he got off to a subpar start this season before he went on the restricted list, Zobrist has been one of the Cubs’ most valuable players for a large portion of his tenure with the team. And if Zobrist never suits up for the Cubs again, he may have indirectly left them a parting gift in the form of all-time great closer Craig Kimbrel.

The Cubs were able to reach an agreement on a three-year, $43MM deal with Kimbrel on Wednesday, in part because they’re not paying Zobrist. Chicago shied away from big-money additions in the offseason because of luxury tax ramifications, but Zobrist’s exit – whether temporary or permanent – helped give the World Series hopefuls the necessary spending room to win the long-running Kimbrel sweepstakes.

Cubs To Sign Sixth-Rounder Ethan Hearn

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The Cubs have reached an agreement with their sixth-round pick, high school catcher Ethan Hearn, NBC Sports Chicago’s David Kaplan reports (Twitter link).  Hearn had been committed to Mississippi State, though he will instead begin his pro career after receiving a substantially large signing bonus.  Kaplan reports that Hearn “will receive second round money,” rather than the $247K recommended slot price attached to the 192nd overall selection.  This likely means Hearn’s bonus is in the seven figures, as the second-round slot prices range from $929.8K to just over $1.771MM.

Hearn’s college commitment dropped him into the sixth round, though most draft pundits projected him in the low-second/high-third round area (Baseball America ranked him 66th among all draft prospects, and Hearn was ranked 67th by MLB.com, and 71st by Fangraphs).  Generally considered the top high school catcher in this year’s draft class, Hearn is described by Baseball America’s scouting report as possessing “above-average raw power but a below-average hit tool” for now.  He has a strong throwing arm and strong defensive potential behind the plate, though his overall defensive work may still need some seasoning, which isn’t unusual for such a young catcher.

By going significantly over slot to sign Hearn, the Cubs will eat into a big chunk of their $5,826,900 overall draft pool.  It’s worth noting that Hearn is the only high schooler taken within Chicago’s first seven picks, so the Cubs have positioned themselves to create some savings elsewhere.

Cubs Making Push For Craig Kimbrel

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The Cubs are “pushing hard” to sign free-agent closer Craig Kimbrel, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (via Twitter). He’d obviously be a much-needed upgrade for a Cubs ’pen that has been without closer Brandon Morrow all season and has endured numerous other injuries so far in 2019.

If a deal does indeed come to fruition, it’d represent a change of course for the Cubs, who spent the offseason making a series of small-scale additions due to ownership’s claim that the team simply didn’t have the resources to add to the team’s payroll. Kimbrel has been reported to be seeking a three-year pact, so it’s possible that the Cubs could backload a multi-year offer to ease up on the financial burden for the current season, but they’d still pay a 32 percent luxury tax on the average annual value of Kimbrel’s contract. The Cubs’ payroll already tops $213MM, and their luxury-tax payroll (calculated by the combined average annual values of all the contracts on the roster) checks in north of $227MM, per Roster Resources’ Jason Martinez.

Chicago recently welcomed Pedro Strop back from the injured list, and adding Kimbrel would be a second boon to the relief corps in a short period of time. Kimbrel won’t be ready to step directly into a game setting, of course, but he’s assuredly been throwing in preparation to join a team as soon as possible. In all likelihood, he’d build up over a relatively brief minor league stint and join his new team within a matter of weeks.

As soon as the calendar flipped from Sunday to Monday this week, Kimbrel and fellow free agent holdout Dallas Keuchel were freed from the burden of draft-pick compensation, so signing him would only cost the Cubs money at this point. He’s also been somewhat prominently connected to the Twins, although it’s quite arguable that the Cubs’ need is greater. Minnesota is enjoying a 10.5-game lead in the American League Central, whereas all four teams in the NL Central are within 5.5 games of the Cubs; the Brewers, in particular, are only a half game back of the Cubs in the standings.

The most common other suitors listed for Kimbrel have been in the NL East: the division-leading Phillies and Kimbrel’s original organization, the Braves. Philadelphia has reportedly only been interested in Kimbrel on a short-term deal, however (presumably, a one-year pact). As for the Braves, their interest in Kimbrel has clearly never aligned with the fanbase’s at times ravenous desire to see Kimbrel once again take the mound in Braves gear. The Atlanta faithful have gone so far as to audibly chant, “We want Kimbrel” during Braves games at SunTrust Park, but the front office has maintained a more measured approach to whatever interest it holds in bringing Kimbrel back to Georgia.

Cubs To Activate Pedro Strop

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The Cubs will welcome back reliever Pedro Strop from the injured list, manager Joe Maddon tells Bruce Levine of 670 The Score (Twitter link). Fellow righty Dillon Maples was optioned down to make room.

Strop’s return from a hamstring injury is an important step for a club that has had its share of relief issues of late. The Chicago pen has blown more saves (seven) in the past month than all but one other team (the Mets, with nine). Adding Strop back to the late-inning mix will not only give Maddon another key arm to work with in high-leverage situations but will help deepen the rest of the unit.

Soon to turn 34, Strop has long been a reliable piece for the Cubs. Since landing in Chicago, he carries a 2.71 ERA with 10.2 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 over 342 frames of action. He has allowed just 5.7 hits and 0.6 home runs per nine in that span.

It’s tough to say much after a twelve-appearance sample, but Strop was perhaps a tick off to begin the season. His velocity has continued to trend down, albeit at a gentle pace, and he had permitted six earned runs in his 10 2/3 innings. Most of the damage came in two outings to open the year.

The Cubs will be glad to throw Strop back in the mix to see whether he can get back to his usual productivity. Whether or not he’ll retake the closer’s job from Steve Cishek remains to be seen. The club would prefer to have both of those pitchers working in a setup capacity in front of Brandon Morrow, but it’s anyone’s guess whether and when he’ll return.

Poll: Recent No. 2 Picks

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With the first round of the Major League Baseball draft in the works, teams are angling to land long-term cornerstones as we speak. The Royals, for instance, tabbed high school shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. second overall on Monday. If things go according to plan, he’ll evolve into a franchise player the way other recent second overall selections have. The best No. 2 choices over the past several years have been Kris Bryant, who joined the Cubs in 2013, and 2015 Astros pick Alex Bregman. The two have become stars since their respective draft nights, but whom would you rather have?

Bryant, now 27, exploded on the scene in 2015, winning NL Rookie of the Year honors with a 6.1-fWAR season, and hasn’t looked back since. The third baseman/outfielder added an NL MVP and a World Series to his list of accomplishments in 2016, the season he helped the Cubs break a 108-year title drought. Bryant’s now a two-time All-Star with a career slash line of .284/.386/.518 (141 wRC+), 120 home runs and 25.3 fWAR in 2,715 lifetime plate appearances.

Bregman’s also a world champion, having aided in the Astros’ victory in 2017. That was the year after Bregman debuted in the majors. Since then, the 25-year-old infielder – whose primary position is third – has earned an All-Star nod and batted a Bryant-like .280/.369/.507 (140 wRC+) with 75 long balls, 31 steals and 14.8 fWAR across 1,804 trips to the plate.

Beyond the fact that they’re two of the most valuable players in baseball, Bryant and Bregman are each under control for at least the next couple seasons. Bryant, who’s on a $12.9MM salary, has two more years of arbitration eligibility left after this one. The Astros, on the other hand, will avoid the arb process with Bregman as they move forward. Houston locked Bregman up to a five-year, $100MM extension prior to the season, meaning he’s under wraps through 2024.

Age and team control may play a factor as you choose between Bryant and Bregman. Regardless of which player you prefer, though, it’s obvious these are two of the premier first-rounders in recent history. They give hope to every downtrodden franchise that had a high pick Monday.

(Poll link for app users)

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