White Sox Acquire Bailey Horn From Cubs
The White Sox and Cubs have agreed on a trade sending left-hander Bailey Horn from the Cubs to the Sox in exchange for minor league righty Matt Thompson, per announcements from both clubs. Sahadev Sharma and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported on the deal prior to the official announcement. Sharma reported last night that the Cubs were exploring deals to trade a pitcher off the back end of their 40-man roster, in order to open a spot for the newly re-signed Cody Bellinger.
Horn, 26, will return to the club that originally selected him in the fifth round of the 2020 draft. He pitched in the Sox’ system for a portion of the 2021 season but was traded to the Cubs in exchange for veteran reliever Ryan Tepera just over a year after being drafted. Current Sox general manager Chris Getz was the team’s farm director in 2020-21 and clearly saw plenty in Horn to like, given that he’s now reacquired the lefty.
Horn split the 2023 season between the Cubs’ Double-A and Triple-A affiliates, pitching to a combined 4.21 ERA in 65 innings out of the bullpen. He fanned a hearty 28.7% of his opponents but struggled with his command, issuing walks at a 12.5% clip. Baseball America ranked him 28th among Cubs farmhands this season, touting a fastball that sits 94-96 mph and a pair of potentially above-average breaking balls (a plus slider and a solid curveball). However, BA’s report also noted that Horn has a “violent arm action that yields well below-average control and significant injury risk.”
Now back with the South Siders, Horn will give the Sox a near-term option in the bullpen. He’s pitched exclusively in relief in each of the past two seasons and was only just added to the 40-man roster this offseason, meaning he has a full slate of three minor league option years remaining.
In exchange for Horn, the Cubs will receive the 23-year-old Thompson — a starting pitching prospect whom the White Sox selected in the second round of the 2019 draft. He started 27 games at the Double-A level in ’23, pitching to a 4.85 ERA with a 23.9% strikeout rate, 15% walk rate and 40.7% ground-ball rate. Scouting reports on Thompson tout a heater that reaches 97 mph and a potentially plus curveball, but like Horn he’s working to overcome below-average command. Baseball America tabbed him 30th among ChiSox prospects heading into the 2024 season.
Much like Horn, Thompson is a project who’s reached the upper minors but will likely need to make some refinements before earning a look at the MLB level. He’s pitched 109 and 124 innings, respectively, over the past two seasons. He could join the rotation in Double-A Tennessee or in Triple-A Iowa and will provide the Cubs with some upper-level rotation depth. The Cubs are increasingly deep in that regard, with names like Jordan Wicks, Hayden Wesneski, Ben Brown and Javier Assad all in the mix for their final rotation spot, and top prospect Cade Horton rapidly climbing the organizational ladder.
Cubs To Sign Garrett Cooper To Minors Deal
The Cubs have signed veteran first baseman Garrett Cooper, according to Craig Mish of the Miami Herald (X link). It is a minor league pact for Cooper, who will receive an invitation to Chicago’s big league spring camp.
The 33-year-old hit .251/.304/.419 with 17 home runs over 457 combined plate appearances with the Marlins and Padres in 2023, translating to a 96 wRC+. Cooper made decent contact when he did make contact, though his strikeout and walk rates were below the league average. His production picked up a bit after he was dealt to San Diego at the trade deadline, in a swap which ended Cooper’s six-year run as a Miami regular.
A down year heading into free agency was an unfortunate outcome for Cooper, who had a 117 wRC+ (from 39 homers and a .274/.350/.444 slash line) over 1273 PA for the Marlins from 2019-22 and was even an All-Star in 2022. Injuries have long plagued Cooper and frequently kept him on the injured list, so there’s some irony that he struggled during the healthiest year of his pro career. Apart from a minimal 10-day IL stint due to an inner ear infection, Cooper managed to stay on the field, yet in 2023 lost playing time due to a lack of production against right-handed pitching.
Cooper’s splits were pretty drastic last year, with a .904 OPS against lefties and a .666 OPS against righties. The right-handed batter had naturally posted better numbers against southpaws over his career, though Cooper had always hit righties respectably well apart from last season and during the smaller sample size of the abbreviated 2020 campaign.
This adds up to a bit of a curious fit on the Cubs roster, given how the Cubs are still a little heavy on right-handed bats even after today’s signing of Cody Bellinger. However, projected first base starter Michael Busch is both a lefty swinger and short on MLB experience, so adding Cooper gives Chicago some platoon depth if Bellinger ends up playing center field more regularly than first base. There also isn’t a set option at the DH spot, if the Cubs end up giving Christopher Morel an extended look as a third baseman. Cooper has a good deal of right field experience, though he’s a likelier to stick to first base or DH duty since he hasn’t played in the outfield since 2021.
There’s no risk for the Cubs in seeing what Cooper can provide on a minor league deal, and the obligatory opt-out provided to veteran players in minor league deals would allow both sides to part ways before the end of Spring Training if the Cubs ultimately don’t see a spot for Cooper on the Opening Day roster. It is a little surprising that Cooper couldn’t find a guaranteed contract, yet it also speaks to the limited marketplace for first base-only players in their 30’s, and obviously Cooper’s subpar 2023 last season weighed heavier on the minds of front offices than his solid track record in previous years.
The Brewers and Red Sox were publicly linked to Cooper’s market earlier this winter, though Milwaukee’s signing of Rhys Hoskins seemed to close the door on Cooper’s chances of landing in the Badger State. Boston’s interest in Cooper was reportedly more conditional, as the Red Sox saw Cooper as a backup plan if they couldn’t sign their preferred choice in the still-available Adam Duvall. Speculatively, this could mean a deal between Duvall and the Red Sox could be more likely, if Boston is now a little more inclined to up its offer to Duvall with Cooper off the board.
Which Is The Best Team In The NL Central?
The National League Central is arguably the tightest division in the majors right now. That’s subjective but borne out by projection systems. The FanGraphs projected standings have all five teams currently slated for between 83 and 77 wins, the smallest spread from first to last out of the six divisions. The PECOTA standings at Baseball Prospectus aren’t quite as tight, with a spread of 11.7 games from first to last, but that’s still narrower than any other division in the league.
Last year, the Brewers took the division fairly easily, going 92-70 and finishing nine games up on the second-place Cubs. But a lot has changed since then and there could still be more changes to come. The “Boras Four” of Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Matt Chapman and Cody Bellinger remain unsigned, as do several other free agents. One of those players joining an NL Central club could change the calculation but let’s take a look at where things stand now, in order of last year’s standings.
Brewers: 92-70 in 2023, FG projects 80 wins in 2024, PECOTA 79
The reigning champions have undergone some significant changes, particularly in their rotation. Brandon Woodruff underwent shoulder surgery late last year, with the rehab putting his 2024 season in jeopardy. He was non-tendered and re-signed but won’t be a factor until late in the upcoming season, if at all. On top of that, the club traded Corbin Burnes to the Orioles, meaning they are now without both of their co-aces from recent years.
That makes the rotation clearly weaker than it has been in previous seasons, even though they did acquire some reinforcements. DL Hall came over in the Burnes trade and the Brewers will give him a chance to earn a rotation job. They also re-signed Wade Miley and Colin Rea in addition to bringing in Jakob Junis and Joe Ross to back up Freddy Peralta, who has now been vaulted to the top spot. Prospects Jacob Misiorowski and Robert Gasser could push for roles during the season.
While the starting rotation has clearly been diminished, the lineup should be better. They didn’t lose any core pieces from last year’s position player mix while they have signed free agents Rhys Hoskins and Gary Sánchez for some extra thump. Prospect Jackson Chourio should be up to make his debut this year while other young players like Sal Frelick, Garrett Mitchell and Brice Turang will hopefully continue to take steps forward. Joey Ortiz, who came over in the Burnes deal alongside Hall, could seize a role on the infield.
Cubs: 83-79 in 2023, FG projects 80 wins in 2024, PECOTA 80.8
The Cubs have been retooling for a few years but just narrowly missed a return to the postseason in 2023. Their finished 83-79, just one game behind the Diamondbacks and Marlins, who got the last two Wild Card spots. They then saw Bellinger, Jeimer Candelario and Marcus Stroman become free agents, subtracting two regulars from the lineup and a starter from the rotation. Candelario since jumped to the Reds and Stroman to the Yankees, though Bellinger is still out there.
In the rotation, Stroman has effectively been replaced by the signing of Shota Imanaga. The Cubs signed him in January and it’s hoped that he can supply at least some mid-rotation production to make up for the loss of Stroman, slotting in next to Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon and Kyle Hendricks. A bounceback from Taillon could arguably make the rotation even better this year. The same could be said about a step forward from rookie Jordan Wicks, who debuted last year.
In the lineup, the Cubs are hoping that Michael Busch can be a difference maker. Acquired from the Dodgers in an offseason trade, he has always hit well in the minors but was blocked from seizing a role on his previous club. He’ll take over the first base spot, which was a bit of a hole for the Cubs last year. Bringing back Bellinger to center field still seems possible, but until it happens, the plan appears to be to count on Pete Crow-Armstrong to seize a job. The youngster is considered a great defender but his bat is questionable. Mike Tauchman is on hand if PCA doesn’t make a case for himself.
Signing Chapman to take over third could be a logical move but it’s also possible the club could slot Christopher Morel there. He has an exciting amount of power in his bat and his throwing arm, but concerns about his defense and propensity for strikeouts. Still, the bar is not too high for him to be better than guys like Nick Madrigal or Patrick Wisdom.
Reds: 82-80 in 2023, FG projects 79 wins in 2024, PECOTA 78.7
A surge of young position player talent was almost enough to vault the Reds into the playoffs last year. They did that despite a team-wide ERA of 4.83 and and 5.43 mark from their starting rotation. No significant contributors to the 2023 club reached free agency, so even just a bit of internal improvement could make them a contender.
But the Reds weren’t just going to rely on their incumbent options, as they have been fairly active this offseason. They added Candelario to their position player mix despite already having plenty of bats for their lineup. That should give them some cover for any of their young players suffering some regression or an injury.
They also bolstered the pitching staff which, as mentioned, was an issue last year. Free agents Frankie Montas, Nick Martínez, Emilio Pagán and Brent Suter were all signed to the roster. Montas is coming off a lengthy injury absence but was quite effective the last time he was healthy. Martínez could be a back-end addition for the rotation or he might wind up in the bullpen with Pagán and Suter. They could also get better just via health, as no one on the club logged 150 innings last year as each of Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Graham Ashcraft spent time on the IL, while Andrew Abbott didn’t debut until midseason.
Pirates: 76-86 in 2023, FG projects 77 wins in 2024, PECOTA 73
Somewhat similar to the Reds, the Pirates also rode a wave of young talent last year, though it didn’t have the same staying power. They were in first place in the division as late as June 15 but faded as the season wore on and finished outside contention.
They were facing almost no roster losses, as their most significant free agents from 2023 were Andrew McCutchen and Vince Velasquez. McCutchen re-signed while Velasquez only made eight starts last year anyway due to elbow surgery. But they faced other challenges as right-hander Johan Oviedo and catcher Endy Rodríguez both required UCL surgery this offseason and will miss all of 2024.
With Rodríguez out, the club is hoping Henry Davis can pivot back behind the plate and take over. They signed veteran Yasmani Grandal as a bit of insurance in case things don’t work out with Davis. They grabbed a couple of veteran starters as well in Martín Pérez and Marco Gonzales, hoping that duo can over for the losses of Oviedo and Velasquez as well as the struggles of Roansy Contreras. The impending debut of prospect Paul Skenes could also help in that department as well, with Jared Jones and Bubba Chandler perhaps not far behind.
The lineup hasn’t drastically changed, with Rowdy Tellez brought in as a bounceback candidate. Perhaps their most impactful lineup upgrade could be the health of Oneil Cruz, who missed most of 2023 due ankle surgery. They also signed Aroldis Chapman to help David Bednar form a lockdown late-inning duo.
Cardinals: 71-91 in 2023, FG projects 83 wins in 2024, PECOTA 84.7
Many predicted the Cards to win the division last year but it clearly did not happen. Plenty of things went wrong, particularly on the pitching side of things, and they ended up in the basement. The team-wide ERA of 4.83 was better than just five teams in the majors, with the 5.08 rotation ERA even worse. Adam Wainwright‘s swan song turned out to be ear-splitting while Steven Matz and Jack Flaherty also struggled. Depth guys like Dakota Hudson, Matthew Liberatore, Zack Thompson and Jake Woodford were all bad to varying degrees.
Remaking the rotation was the clear priority this winter and they have been active in that department. They quickly signed Sonny Gray, Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson at the start of the offseason to replace Flaherty, Montgomery and Wainwright. Sem Robberse, Adam Kloffenstein, Tekoah Roby and Drew Rom were all acquired at last year’s deadline and could make the emergency depth stronger. Victor Santos was added this offseason as part of the Tyler O’Neill trade.
Not too much has changed on the position player side of things. As mentioned, O’Neill was shipped out but the club is hoping to replace him internally. The emergence of Masyn Winn at shortstop means that Tommy Edman is probably now an outfielder full-time, assuming Winn produces better results than he did in his debut last year. Bounceback performances, particularly from Nolan Arenado, will be key. In the bullpen, Jordan Hicks and Chris Stratton were traded last summer. The Cards traded for Andrew Kittredge and signed Keynan Middleton to try to make up for those two departures.
Compared to the other divisions in the big leagues, this one is the hardest to decide on a clear favorite. The Brewers are the defending champs but have lost their two aces. Can the extra offense make up for that? Was it a rare blip that the Cardinals were so bad last year? Have the Cubs done enough to get over the hump? Can the Reds or Pirates get enough improvement from their young players to surge ahead?
What do you think? Have your say in the poll below!
Which Is The Best Team In The NL Central?
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Cardinals 29% (3,702)
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Reds 24% (3,092)
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Cubs 21% (2,756)
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Brewers 18% (2,301)
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Pirates 8% (1,045)
Total votes: 12,896
MLBTR Podcast: Finding Fits For The “Boras Four,” Which Teams Could Still Spend? And Rob Manfred In His Last Term
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The “Boras Four” lingering in free agency (1:00)
- A short-term deal for Cody Bellinger? Are the Cubs the best fit? (2:20)
- What about the Royals or some other unexpected suitor? (4:45)
- Are the Rangers essentially done, as Chris Young said? (9:10)
- Are the Giants essentially done, as Farhan Zaidi said? (11:05)
- Are the Blue Jays essentially done, as Ross Atkins said? (14:05)
- Angels owner Arte Moreno says they will have a lower budget (17:40)
- The Nationals are no longer for sale and also claim to be done adding to the roster (23:05)
- Commissioner Rob Manfred not planning to stick around (32:05)
Check out our past episodes!
- Jorge Soler, Veteran Catcher Signings and the Padres’ Payroll Crunch – listen here
- The Sale of the Orioles, Corbin Burnes Traded and Bobby Witt Jr. Extended – listen here
- The Jorge Polanco Trade, Rhys Hoskins and the Blue Jays’ Plans – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Eric Hosmer Retires
First baseman Eric Hosmer hasn’t been on a major league roster in almost a year and has now decided to hang up his spikes. He tells John Perrotto of Forbes that he has now officially retired and is pivoting into the media sphere.
Hosmer, now 34, was one of many high-profile prospects in the Royals’ system, going back almost a couple of decades. The club leaned into a lengthy period of tanking in the early parts of this century, losing at least 87 games in nine straight seasons from 2004 to 2012. Over that time, they were able to pile up young talent in their farm system thanks to some strong draft picks. The deepest part of the rebuild was 2004 to 2007, with the club losing at least 93 games in each of those campaigns, but also getting a top-three pick in the draft for four straight years.
Those four picks were used on Alex Gordon, Luke Hochevar, Mike Moustakas and Hosmer. Those players combined with other youngsters like Lorenzo Cain, Salvador Pérez and Yordano Ventura to form a promising young core that the club was hoping to use to return to prominence.
Hosmer hit well on his way up the minor league ladder and was considered one of the top 10 prospects in the game going into 2011. He made a strong debut that year and showcased some tendencies that would go on to define his career, namely an ability to avoid strikeouts but also an inability to get under the ball. He didn’t walk much either, so the ball was often in play, with his numbers swaying from year to year depending on whether he was finding holes or not.
He only struck out in 14.6% of his plate appearances in his rookie season, well below that year’s league average of 18.6%. But 49.7% of his balls in play were pounded into the ground, noticeably above the 44.4% league average. Regardless, he still hit 19 home runs and slashed .293/.334/.465 for a wRC+ of 113.
In 2012, he suffered through a sophomore slump, hitting just .232/.304/.359 for a wRC+ of 80. Part of that was batted ball luck, as his BABIP dropped to .255 from .314 the year prior. But his grounder rate also ticked up to 53.6% and he only hit 14 homers. These sorts of oscillations continued into the next few years. In 2013, his batting average was up at .302 and he hit 17 homers, but then those numbers dipped to .270 and just nine long balls in 2014.
Despite the challenges for Hosmer in the latter year, the club’s planned return to contention finally clicked in a big way. The Royals went all the way to the World Series that year, though they ultimate were felled by the Giants in seven games. Hosmer was a big part of that run, as he hit .351/.439/.544 that postseason.
Just about everything went right the next year, despite Hosmer still putting 52% of batted balls into the dirt. He also hit 18 homers and slashed .297/.363/.459 for a wRC+ of 124. The Royals went back to the World Series and finished the job this time, taking down the Mets in five games to hoist their first trophy since 1985.
The club slipped near .500 in the next two seasons as the up-and-down performance continued for Hosmer. His bat dipped closer to league average in 2016, though he rebounded with arguably the best season of his career in 2017. His grounder rate was still very high at 55.6%, but he managed to park the ball over the fence 25 times and slashed .318/.385/.498 for a wRC+ of 135.
That was excellent timing for a career year, as that was his platform season for his first trip into free agency. Despite the inconsistent performance, the Padres took a chance on him, agreeing to an eight-year, $144MM deal. In addition to the offensive questions, his defensive metrics were never strong, in spite of his four Gold Glove awards while with the Royals. But the Padres had been undergoing their own period of insignificance, having just finished the seventh of what would eventually be nine straight losing seasons. The signing of Hosmer, the largest deal in franchise history at the time, was meant to signal an end of the rebuild and a return to relevance.
Unfortunately, the deal quickly went south, as Hosmer’s bat was around league average for most of his time in San Diego. From 2018 through 2021, he hit .264/.323/.415, translating to a wRC+ of 99. He was often the subject of trade rumors in that time, as the Friars looked to get out from under the deal. He was going to be sent to the Nationals as part of the deal that sent Juan Soto to San Diego, but Hosmer had a limited no-trade clause that allowed him to block the deal. That deal went through with Luke Voit taking Hosmer’s place, though Hoz was flipped to the Red Sox instead, with that club not covered by his clause. The Padres ate the remainder of Hosmer’s contract, apart from the league minimum, and included a couple of prospects in order to get Jay Groome from Boston.
A stint on the injured list due to some back inflammation limited him to just 14 games with the Sox after the deal and they released him in the offseason to clear a path for prospect Triston Casas. The Cubs took a flier on Hosmer, which was essentially a free look since the Padres were still on the hook for his salary. But he hit poorly in 31 games as a Cub last year, producing a batting line of .234/.280/.330, and was released in May. He didn’t latch on elsewhere and has now decided to officially call it a career.
Though there were some ups and downs, Hosmer still has plenty of accolades on his ledger, including four Gold Gloves, a Silver Slugger Award, an All-Star appearance and a World Series ring. He also won the World Baseball Classic with Team USA in 2017. He racked up 1,753 hits in his MLB career, including 322 doubles, 20 triples and 198 home runs. He scored 812 runs and drove in 893. Baseball Reference lists his career earnings just under $175MM. We at MLBTR salute Hosmer on a fine career and wish him the best in his next steps.
Cubs, Dominic Smith Agree To Minor League Deal
The Cubs are in agreement with free agent first baseman Dominic Smith on a minor league contract, reports Robert Murray of FanSided (X link). Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that the deal contains a $1.75MM base salary if Smith makes the MLB roster (on X). Murray adds that it could max out at $3.5MM if he hits all the available incentives.
Smith hit free agency when he was non-tendered by the Nationals. Washington signed the former top prospect to a $2MM deal last winter, taking a buy-low flier after Smith’s tenure in Queens had fizzled out. The first baseman had flashed significant offensive upside in limited work between 2019-20, hitting .299/.366/.571 in just under 400 plate appearances over that stretch.
Not only has Smith not maintained that form, he has been a below-average hitter in each of the last three seasons. The Mets moved on after the 2022 season. Smith logged a career-high 586 plate appearances a year ago in Washington. He didn’t make a huge impact, running a .254/.326/.366 slash. Smith kept his strikeouts to a personal-low 15.5% clip but didn’t provide the kind of power expected of a first baseman. He hit 12 homers and tied with Ty France for the lowest slugging mark among primary first basemen (minimum 400 plate appearances).
Murray reports that Smith underwent surgery to address a hamate injury in his wrist in early January. It’s unclear precisely when he suffered the injury, although he didn’t require any time on the IL a year ago. Murray indicates that Smith is expected to be at full strength by the end of exhibition play.
As is the case with tonight’s agreement with David Peralta, Chicago adds an experienced left-handed hitter coming off a down year. Both players made contact at better than average rates a year ago, albeit with minimal power. Smith is limited to first base, where he’ll vie for a job behind offseason trade pickup Michael Busch.
Cubs To Sign David Peralta To Minor League Contract
The Cubs are in agreement with corner outfielder David Peralta on a deal, reports Robert Murray of FanSided (X link). It’s a minor league contract, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (on X).
Peralta spent the 2023 season with the Dodgers. The veteran inked a $6.5MM free agent pact with Los Angeles last winter. He struggled through one of the worst seasons of his 10-year big league career. Peralta hit .259/.294/.381 through 422 plate appearances. He continued to make plenty of contact but hit only seven home runs, his lowest full-season tally since a 2016 injury-wrecked campaign. His on-base and slugging marks were each the lowest of his career.
Injuries presumably played a role in that diminished production. At season’s end, Peralta underwent surgery to repair a flexor tendon tear in his throwing arm. Reports at the time suggested he was expected to return to throwing and hitting by March. It’s possible Peralta will be behind in Spring Training. At the very least, he’s coming off an atypical offseason.
Between the middling offensive output, the injury and Peralta’s age (36), he was limited to minor league offers. He’s a quality depth pickup who was a solid contributor as recently as 2022. Peralta combined for a slightly above-average .251/.316/.415 batting line in 490 plate appearances with the D-Backs and Rays two years ago. He has garnered solid grades for his left field defense throughout his career and secured a Gold Glove in 2019. Assuming his arm strength is intact after recovering from the flexor surgery, he should be a stable outfield defender.
The Cubs don’t have a clear path to everyday playing time in the corner outfield. Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ have those positions settled. Peralta isn’t a candidate for center field, where Mike Tauchman and top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong are the projected top options (at least pending Cody Bellinger’s free agent resolution). If Peralta cracks the MLB team, he’d add a strong veteran presence to the bench and could log some outfield reps on days when Suzuki or Happ get a breather at designated hitter.
Cubs Chairman On Cody Bellinger: Some Discussions But Not A Negotiation
Cubs chairman Tom Ricketts spoke to members of the media today, including Jesse Rogers of ESPN, and addressed the topic of free agent Cody Bellinger. “There has been some discussions but it hasn’t become a negotiation yet,” he said.
“We’re just waiting,” Ricketts said. “Waiting for whenever he and his agent are going to engage. It could be any time now or it could be a few weeks. We’ll see where it goes.” Ricketts continued: “Until they are ready to negotiate, there’s not much we can do. We just have to wait for when it gets serious before talking about what the end money amounts are.”
When asked if he had spoken with Bellinger’s agent, Scott Boras, Ricketts said: “I don’t talk to Scott. One of his signature moves is to go talk to the owner. When you do that, you undermine the credibility of your GM. Inserting yourself into that negotiation, I don’t think that helps. I don’t talk to him.”
Boras disagreed with this framing of the relationship, saying that the Cubs called him about Bellinger last winter. “Free agency is about recruiting players,” Boras said. “It’s the normal owner’s signature move to be involved in the efforts of recruiting players and reaching out to me so I can convey to the player the ownership of the team covets them. That is the essence of free agency and it is a custom and practice for ownership to express commitment and involvement. When Cody was a free agent last year the Cubs engaged and were very aggressive in their pursuit. And their process is no different this year. So I am not clear as to what Tom is suggesting.”
Bellinger, 28, came into the offseason as one of the most exciting players available. He suffered through some rough injury-marred seasons in 2021 and 2022, ending up non-tendered by the Dodgers, but bounced back with the Cubs on a one-year deal. He hit 26 home runs last year and slashed .307/.356/.525 for a wRC+ of 134. He also stole 20 bases and provided solid defense in center field and at first base. Given his youth and previous MVP upside, he seemed like a strong candidate for a huge deal, with him and Boras reportedly looking for $200MM or more.
But there have also been factors working against that. One is the lack of belief in his bounceback campaign, with detractors pointing to his tepid Statcast data. His hard hit rate was only in the 10th percentile of qualified league hitters, with his average exit velocity 22nd and his barrel rate 27th. It’s possible that Bellinger chose to prioritize contact over power, as his 15.6% strikeout rate last year was a career low, but the lack of impact may be a concern regardless.
There’s also the prior two seasons to consider, as Bellinger hit a dismal .193/.256/.355 in that time. He required shoulder surgery after 2020 and it’s been suggested by some, including his agent, that he was never fully healthy in that time. Perhaps that’s true but it also could be playing a factor in the fact that he’s lingering on the market in the middle of February.
There are also external factors at play. Not all clubs in the league can plausibly be expected to give out the kind of deal Bellinger and Boras are looking for. Of the possible fits, some of those clubs are working with diminished spending capacity in relation to the ongoing saga surrounding Diamond Sports Group and the general loss of TV revenue from cord cutting. That’s also had domino effects, as the Padres were one of the clubs that had to cut costs, which led to them flipping Juan Soto and Trent Grisham to the Yankees. The Yanks were seen as one of the best landing spots for Bellinger coming into the winter but they were able to address their outfield via trade instead.
Other clubs that once seemed like viable landing spots have also become less likely. The Giants were alongside the Yankees as a strong fit back in the fall, but they signed Jung Hoo Lee to be their everyday center fielder. The Blue Jays re-signed Kevin Kiermaier. The Angels are apparently cutting payroll and also added Aaron Hicks to their outfield mix. The Mariners acquired Luke Raley and Mitch Haniger while Atlanta got Jarred Kelenic.
That’s led to speculation that Bellinger may need to pivot to a short-term deal with an eye on returning to the open market when the conditions have changed. Ideally, he will have had another strong seasons and silenced some of the doubters. MLBTR’s Steve Adams recently explored that possibility and took a look at where Bellinger might find such a deal.
A return to the Cubs has arguably remained his best landing spot. The club addressed first base by acquiring Michael Busch but center field could still be open between Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki as the corner guys. Pete Crow-Armstrong is perhaps the club’s center fielder of the future but his first taste of the majors was a struggle and he also struck out in 29.7% of his Triple-A plate appearances last year. He’s considered a superlative defender and a threat on the bases, so he doesn’t need to hit a ton to be a viable regular, but there’s an argument to bringing back Bellinger and letting PCA earn his way into playing time. The club also doesn’t have a strict designated hitter so it’s theoretically possible for each of Bellinger, Happ, Suzuki and Crow-Armstrong to get regular playing time in the same lineup.
That doesn’t necessarily mean the Cubs will actually pull the trigger on a deal, but they should have the money to do it. “We’re right there at CBT (Competitive Balance Tax) levels,” Ricketts said today. “It’s kind of our natural place for us. That should be enough to win our division and be consistent every year.”
Roster Resource pegs the club’s CBT number at $208MM, almost $30MM below this year’s base threshold of $237MM. Based on the tenor of the comments from Ricketts, it seems they prefer to stay under that line. That still gives them the ability to make a notable deal, such as one for Bellinger, but the seeming low level of communication between the two sides suggests there hasn’t been too much urgency towards going down that path. It would also likely mean committing to a long-term deal, as any short-term discussions would surely lead to a higher AAV that would push them over the tax line, something Ricketts seemingly prefers not to do. Whether that’s brinkmanship or a genuine reflection of the club’s position remains to be seen, with Opening Day now just over a month away.
NL Notes: Grichuk, D’Backs, Kiermaier, Keller, Lodolo
Randal Grichuk underwent surgery last month to remove bone spurs from his ankle, so the newest member of the Diamondbacks roster might not be ready to make his Arizona debut by the very start of the season. “It’s one of those things where there’s a good chance I’ll be ready for Opening Day and if not, it’s a week. In the grand scheme of things, big picture, it’s nothing to worry about,” Grichuk told Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic and other reporters. Obviously the D’Backs weren’t concerned enough to back away from their $2MM deal with the veteran outfielder, and Grichuk could possibly be used as a designated hitter at first until he is fully ready for outfield work.
As to what the D’Backs might have left on their shopping list after a busy offseason, GM Mike Hazen told reporters (including Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports) that “I think building out relief depth is probably something that we’re talking about. Pitching in general…I think from a position player standpoint, we’re probably in a spot where it’s less likely to see a clear opportunity for somebody. But we still have competitions underneath the starting roles. So we’ll see where that takes us.”
More from the National League….
- The Padres, Twins, Yankees, and Angels were linked to Kevin Kiermaier‘s market before the outfielder re-signed with the Blue Jays, but Kiermaier told MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi that the Cubs, Dodgers, and Giants also had interest. Kiermaier and his family’s love of Toronto and his Jays teammates ultimately sealed his return to the Blue Jays, though it’s interesting to speculate how the four-time Gold Glover might’ve fit into his other suitors’ plans. Adding Kiermaier would’ve given the Cubs some flexibility if Pete Crow-Armstrong wasn’t ready for a starting role just yet, while depending on the timing, the Dodgers might not have re-signed Jason Heyward if Kiermaier had instead been added to the fold. Signing Kiermaier likely wouldn’t have prevented the Giants from signing Jung Hoo Lee, though Lee might’ve been ticketed for more time as a corner outfielder than in center.
- The Pirates and Mitch Keller had several discussions about a contract extension last season, and Keller is “really looking forward” to a fresh set of negotiations this spring. “Going through arbitration and stuff, [the two sides are] obviously talking. Hopefully it’ll pick up, and we’ll get something going,” Keller told Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Keller is under arbitration control through the 2025 season, and the right-hander has emerged as the de facto ace of the Pirates’ rotation over the last two seasons.
- Left-hander Nick Lodolo has already been at the Reds‘ spring camp for a month, as Lodolo has been getting in extra work in the aftermath of an injury-marred 2023 season. Lodolo tossed 34 1/3 innings over seven starts before suffering a stress fracture in his left tibia in May, and he made only three minor league appearances before being shut down in late August. Lodolo told MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon that he isn’t feeling any pain in his left leg, and though he isn’t up to feeling exactly normal just yet, Lodolo and manager David Bell are hopeful the pitcher can be ready to be part of the Opening Day roster. “Health will be the top priority,” Bell said. “So if we don’t feel great about it, we could always just delay it, making sure that he’s fully healthy. He’s in a place that he could catch up and be on time for the season.”
NL Central Notes: Frelick, Morel, Reds
The Brewers signed top prospect Jackson Chourio to a pre-debut extension back in December, and in doing so their outfield logjam for the 2024 season all the more apparent. While the club made some room on the depth chart by shipping Tyrone Taylor to the Mets alongside Adrian Houser earlier in the offseason, the club still figures to have Chourio, Christian Yelich, Garrett Mitchell, Joey Wiemer, Sal Frelick, and Blake Perkins all in the mix for outfield reps entering the 2024 campaign. That positional logjam has led to plenty of speculation that the club could look to trade from its depth to address other parts of the roster, but The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal suggested today that the club could have another, novel solution to the glut in mind: moving Frelick to the infield.
Frelick, 24 in April, was the club’s first-round pick in the 2021 draft and made his big league debut last season. In 57 games at the big league level last year, the lefty-swinging outfield slashed a decent .246/.341/.351 for the Brewers, putting him right around league average despite modest power production. While his first taste of big league action may have left something to be desired, Frelick was a consensus top-40 prospect entering the 2023 season and sports a career .314/.393/.451 slash line for his career in the minors, including a .311/.388/.432 line at the Triple-A level. Despite that strong pedigree, Frelick appears blocked in the outfield by likely regulars Yelich, Chourio, and Mitchell.
Given this, it’s not necessarily a surprise that Frelick has garnered interest on the trade market. The youngster was recently reported as of interest to the Padres, who have a barren outfield mix after shipping Juan Soto and Trent Grisham to the Bronx earlier this winter. With that being said, the Brewers appear, at least for now, appear to be looking for ways to get Frelick’s bat into their own lineup rather than shipping him elsewhere. Rosenthal reports that Frelick is preparing to play both second and third base in addition to the outfield this spring. With Willy Adames entrenched at shortstop barring a trade, Frelick would join an infield mix in Milwaukee that currently features Joey Ortiz and Brice Turang as the likely starting options with Andruw Monasterio, Owen Miller, and top infield prospect Tyler Black also in the mix for playing time.
More from around the NL Central…
- Speaking of youngsters attempting to learn the infield, Cubs manager Craig Counsell recently indicated to reporters, including Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune, that slugger Christopher Morel is set to primarily focus on getting reps at third base this spring. Morel, 25 in June, slashed an impressive .247/.313/.508 in 429 trips to the plate last year while slugging 26 home runs in just 107 games. Most of that production, however, came out of the DH spot in the lineup. Morel’s rookie 2022 campaign saw him split time between second base, third base, shortstop, and center field though he struggled at every position except second, where the Cubs have Gold Glover Nico Hoerner as an everyday option. The Cubs previously seemed poised to rely on a combination of Nick Madrigal and Miles Mastrobuoni at third base, though if Morel can prove himself capable of regular reps at third base he could open the DH spot for an additional bat via free agency or for the club to use as a way to rest regulars.
- As relayed by Gordon Wittenmyer and Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer, the Reds provided a pair of minor injury updates today. Most notable is that regarding infielder Noelvi Marte, who suffered a hamstring injury while playing winter ball in the Dominican Republic. The youngster appeared to be recovering well last month, and the good news has continued as both Marte and Reds brass indicate he should be ready for Opening Day, though he will be delayed in the start to his spring as he’s expected to miss the first five games of Cactus League action. Left-hander Sam Moll is also delayed entering camp, with Wittenmyer and Goldsmith relaying the southpaw dealt with a bout of shoulder soreness while ramping up last month. That’s led the club to put off Moll’s first bullpen session of the spring, though the 32-year-old hurler has continued to play catch and is expected to be ready for Opening Day. Moll impressed with the Reds down the stretch with a 0.73 ERA and 3.34 FIP in 25 appearances after being acquired from Oakland last summer.