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Looking Ahead To Club Options: NL Central

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MLBTR continues our division by division look at next year’s team/mutual option class with the NL Central. Virtually all of the mutual options will be bought out by one side. Generally, if the team is willing to retain the player at the option price, the player will decline his end in search of a better free agent deal.

Previous installments: player options/opt-outs, NL West, AL West

Chicago Cubs

  • Shota Imanaga, LHP (team has three-year, $57MM option covering 2026-28; if they decline, Imanaga has $15MM player option for 2026)

Imanaga signed a somewhat complex four-year, $53MM deal when he made the jump from NPB during the 2023-24 offseason. Next winter, the Cubs need to decide whether to trigger a three-year, $57MM option for the 2026-28 seasons. That’d come with respective salaries of $20MM, $20MM and $17MM. If the Cubs decline their end, Imanaga would be able to decline a $15MM player option for ’26 and test free agency.

It’d almost certainly take an injury for that to happen. Concerns about how Imanaga’s stuff might translate against MLB competition proved unfounded. The southpaw finished fifth in NL Cy Young balloting during his first major league season. He turned in a 2.91 earned run average across 173 1/3 innings, striking out a quarter of opponents against a 4% walk rate. The punchouts haven’t been there through this year’s first five starts, but he takes a 2.22 ERA into tonight’s appearance against the Dodgers. He’s getting whiffs on an excellent 14% of his pitches, so he’ll likely finish off a few more strikeouts moving forward. Imanaga’s deal looks like a bargain, and the Cubs should happily sign up for another three seasons at a $19MM average annual value unless he suffers an injury.

  • Colin Rea, RHP ($6MM club option, $750K buyout)

Rea reunited with Craig Counsell in Chicago after the Brewers declined his $5.5MM club option. It actually worked out slightly to his financial benefit. The righty collected a $1MM buyout from Milwaukee and secured a $5MM guarantee with the Cubs. He’s playing this year on a $4.25MM salary and will make at least a $750K buyout on next year’s club option. That’s valued at $6MM, so it’ll be a $5.25MM decision.

The Cubs had Rea work in long relief to begin the season. He has stepped into the rotation since the Justin Steele injury. The 34-year-old righty is out to a strong start, allowing two runs through his first 13 2/3 innings. He has punched out 12 while only allowing one walk in 56 plate appearances. Rea had held a rotation role in Milwaukee for most of last year, posting a 4.29 ERA through a career-high 167 2/3 innings. As a mid-30s swingman with league average whiff rates, he’s never going to break the bank, but the option price is reasonable for a capable #5/6 starter.

Turner’s option is mostly an accounting measure designed to push back $2MM of his $6MM free agent guarantee by a few months. Option buyouts are paid at year’s end, while the money would have been evenly distributed throughout the season had it simply been a $6MM salary. It’s unlikely that the Cubs would want to sign up for a $10MM salary covering Turner’s age-41 campaign even if he repeats his solid 2024 production.

The 17-year big league veteran has posted 11 consecutive above-average offensive seasons since his 2014 breakout with the Dodgers. His power numbers have declined with age, but he put up a strong .354 on-base percentage in 139 games between the Blue Jays and Mariners a year ago. Turner’s start on the North Side hasn’t been good. He’s hitting .147 without an extra-base hit over 14 games. He’s taken six walks against nine strikeouts but will obviously need to make more of a slugging impact.

Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati took a buy-low flier on Barlow, a former closer who was released by the Guardians shortly before the playoffs. The righty had fallen quickly down the depth chart in Cleveland. He carried a 3.52 ERA with a 32% strikeout rate into the All-Star Break. Barlow allowed a near-6.00 ERA while striking out just 19% of batters faced in the second half. A fastball that typically sat around 93 MPH had dropped to the 90-91 range.

The early tenure in Cincinnati has been mixed. Barlow has gotten his velocity back, averaging 93 on both his four-seam and sinker. He’s getting whiffs on a huge 15.3% of his offerings, nearly two percentage points above last year’s level. The stuff is certainly more encouraging, but the results haven’t followed. He has a pedestrian 9:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio while allowing five runs on eight hits through 9 1/3 innings. He was limited to a $2.5MM guarantee last offseason. He’ll need a more convincing rebound for Cincinnati to retain him on what amounts to a $5.5MM call.

Hays signed for $5MM after being non-tendered by the Phillies. The righty-hitting outfielder has been a capable regular for most of his career, but his production dipped last season while he battled a grueling kidney infection. A Spring Training calf injury delayed his team debut until last week. Hays has been on tear since his return, connecting on three homers while hitting .406 in 34 plate appearances. He has a hit in all seven games, including three straight multi-hit performances against his old teammates in Baltimore over the weekend.

Suter, who grew up in Cincinnati, joined the Reds on a $3MM deal during the 2023-24 offseason. He posted a 3.15 ERA through 65 2/3 innings and signed a $2.25MM extension at the start of last winter. The 35-year-old southpaw is out to a customary start. He has managed 9 2/3 frames of three-run ball despite striking out just four of 38 opponents. Suter’s stuff is never going to jump off the page — he’s sitting in his typical 85-88 MPH range with his fastballs — but he avoids hard contact and is aiming for his seventh straight sub-4.00 ERA showing. Assuming he continues on his usual pace, the Reds should want him back on a $2.75MM decision.

Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee made a big investment by their standards in signing Hoskins to a two-year, $34MM contract during the 2023-24 offseason. The longtime Phillies first baseman had missed his walk year after suffering an ACL tear during Spring Training. The Brewers expected Hoskins to recapture his consistently above-average offensive form after a healthy offseason.

That didn’t happen in year one, as he hit a career-worst .214/.303/.419 across 517 plate appearances. Hoskins still managed 26 homers, but the overall offense was essentially league average. It wasn’t attributable to lingering knee discomfort. Hoskins did his best work early in the season, carrying an .813 OPS through the end of May. He hit .203/.285/.395 over the season’s final four months and bypassed an opt-out opportunity.

Hoskins has gotten out to another strong start this year. He’s batting .270 with a trio of homers and what would be a career-low 20% strikeout rate over his first 75 trips to the plate.

Milwaukee signed Peralta to a $20MM extension just before Spring Training 2020. He was mostly unproven at the time, but it only took one more season before he developed into a top-of-the-rotation starter. This quickly became one of the more team-friendly contracts in baseball. The deal included respective $8MM club options for 2025 and ’26, which would have been Peralta’s first two free agent years had he gone through arbitration.

The 28-year-old righty has been the clear staff ace since Milwaukee traded Corbin Burnes. He posted a sub-4.00 ERA in each of the five guaranteed seasons of the contract. Peralta has rattled off another 28 1/3 frames of 1.91 ERA ball through his first five starts this year. Unless he suffers a significant injury that’d threaten his availability for next season, the Brewers are going to rubber-stamp the option.

Quintana signed late on a $4.25MM pillow contract after finding a weaker market than he expected. The net present value was actually just under $4MM, as Quintana agreed to defer the $2MM buyout on his ’26 mutual option. The Brewers aren’t going to exercise their end of the $15MM option for what would be the veteran lefty’s age-37 season. It looks like they got great value on the one-year deal, though, as Quintana is coming off a 3.75 ERA showing for the Mets. The late signing delayed his team debut, but he has fired 12 1/3 innings of one-run ball over his first two starts.

Woodruff underwent shoulder surgery late in the 2023 season. The Brewers re-signed him to a backloaded two-year deal with a $17.5MM guarantee. They knew he’d spend all of ’24 rehabbing. They’ve taken his progression carefully and didn’t push him during Spring Training. Woodruff began a minor league rehab stint on April 12. He has made a pair of rehab starts and could be back with the big league team in the next couple weeks.

Note: William Contreras’ arbitration contract contains a $12MM team option for next season. He’s excluded from this list because he’d remain under arbitration control if Milwaukee declines the option, as they did with Devin Williams last offseason.

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • None

St. Louis Cardinals

  • None

Cubs Sign Peter Solomon To Minor League Deal

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The Cubs have signed right-hander Peter Solomon to a minor league deal, reports MLBTR’s Steve Adams. The O’Connell Sports Management client will report to Triple-A Iowa and provide the Cubs with some non-roster depth.

Solomon, 28, has a bit of major league experience. He tossed 14 innings with the Astros in 2021 and another 13 1/3 with the Diamondbacks in 2023. He allowed 6.59 earned runs per nine innings in that small sample.

The Cubs are presumably a bit more interested in his larger body of work in the minors, where he has shown some strikeout stuff but also control issues. Back in 2021, he logged 97 2/3 innings with the Astros’ Triple-A club, posting a 4.70 ERA with a 26.3% strikeout rate and 9.9% walk rate. But his minor league ERA jumped to 5.58 in 2022 and then 7.64 in 2023. He started last year in Indy Ball but was able to secure a minor league pact with the Rangers in May. He went on to toss 72 Triple-A innings in a swing role for that organization, with a 6.50 ERA, 21.6% strikeout rate and 12.7% walk rate.

The Cubs have health issues both in the rotation and the bullpen. Justin Steele recently underwent UCL surgery and will miss the rest of the season. Javier Assad has been out all year with an oblique strain. Relievers Ryan Brasier, Eli Morgan and Tyson Miller are on the IL as well. Solomon gives them an extra non-roster depth option. If he gets added at any point, he has one option season remaining and less than a year of service time.

Photo courtesy of Ron Chenoy, Imagn Images

Cubs Acquire Drew Pomeranz From Mariners

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8:14pm: While the team announced that Pomeranz would report to Triple-A Iowa, that’s evidently a temporary assignment. Patrick Mooney and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic report that the Cubs are likely to call him up on Wednesday.

7:47pm: The Cubs officially announced to media (including Marquee’s Taylor McGregor) that they’ve acquired Pomeranz for cash considerations.

6:10pm: The Mariners are trading reliever Drew Pomeranz to the Cubs, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The veteran southpaw had been pitching in Triple-A with Seattle. According to Rosenthal, Pomeranz’s deal contained an upward mobility clause that required the Mariners to either call him up or trade him if another team was willing to offer him a big league roster spot.

That suggests the Cubs will call Pomeranz up for what’d be his first major league appearance in four years (assuming he makes it into a game). He was very briefly in the big leagues last season, as he spent four days on the Giants’ roster last May. San Francisco skipper Bob Melvin didn’t get him into a game before he was designated for assignment and outrighted off the roster. Pomeranz elected free agency upon clearing waivers and sat out the remainder of the season.

The 36-year-old signed a minor league deal with Seattle in December. He was granted his release at the end of Spring Training but promptly returned on a new non-roster pact. He has allowed six runs, five of them earned, through 9 2/3 innings with their Tacoma affiliate. Pomeranz has given out eight free passes (six walks and two hit batters) but he’s punched out 14 of 43 opponents. He’s getting swinging strikes at a decent 11.8% clip while working with a 92 MPH fastball and a low-80s knuckle-curve.

Chicago was intrigued enough by the stuff to give Pomeranz a look despite the wobbly command. He has some familiarity with skipper Craig Counsell. Pomeranz had a breakout half-season in Milwaukee while Counsell was managing the Brewers in 2019. He recorded 45 strikeouts in 26 1/3 innings after a deadline trade with San Francisco. That led the Padres to sign him to a surprising four-year, $34MM free agent deal the following offseason. The investment didn’t work, as injuries and the shortened 2020 schedule limited him to 47 appearances over the life of that contract.

According to the MLB.com transaction log, the Cubs optioned Jordan Wicks to Triple-A Iowa. That’ll apparently be the corresponding active roster move. They’ll need to add Pomeranz to the 40-man roster as well, though they can move Justin Steele to the 60-day injured list to open that spot.

Justin Steele Undergoes UCL Revision Surgery

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The Cubs lost ace southpaw Justin Steele for the year last week when it was announced he’d need season-ending elbow surgery, but Steele didn’t actually go under the knife until Friday. Prior to today’s game against the Diamondbacks, manager Craig Counsell updated reporters (including MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian) on Steele’s status post-surgery and offered some positive news for fans in Chicago. Bastian notes that the Cubs described Steele’s procedure as a “revision repair” of the UCL in his left elbow. That’s a less serious procedure than Tommy John surgery, which entirely replaces the UCL. Counsell suggested that the initial timeline for Steele’s return to action is roughly one year, which would suggest that he can be expected back on the mound fairly early into the 2026 season.

It’s great news for the Cubs and Steele, particularly because Steele already had Tommy John surgery early in his career when he was still a prospect. Second Tommy John surgeries typically come with a rehab on the longer side of the surgery’s typical 12-to-18 month recovery timeline, and occasionally require an even longer layoff. Had Steele required full Tommy John surgery, it wouldn’t have been a shock to see Steele not take a big league mound again until the final weeks of the 2026 season, as was the case for Jacob deGrom when he returned from his second Tommy John surgery last September after nearly 17 months spent rehabbing.

Fortunately, that wasn’t the case, and the Cubs will be able to plan for the 2026 campaign with a reasonable expectation that Steele will be a big part of their rotation mix next year, as was the case for the Braves after Spencer Strider underwent an internal brace procedure early in the 2024 season that came with a similar one-year timetable. Framber Valdez, Zac Gallen, and Dylan Cease are among a handful of front-of-the-rotation arms who figure to be highly sought after this winter, but an early 2026 target for Steele could make the Cubs less inclined to get involved in the markets for those pitchers, especially if they decide to commit their free agent dollars to a pursuit of a long-term deal with star outfielder Kyle Tucker.

While the Cubs can expect Steele to pitch for the club again in 2026, the hit to their short-term rotation depth could still lead them to pursue pitching help this summer. The Cubs appear focused on internal solutions for the time being, and Colin Rea has held his own impressively since subbing in for Steele after opening the year in the bullpen, with effective (although brief) starts against the Dodgers and Diamondbacks during which he’s surrendered just two runs with ten strikeouts against one walk across 8 1/3 innings of work. That sensational production can’t be expected to last forever, but with top pitching prospect Cade Horton striking out 37.5% of his opponents at Triple-A it’s at least possible the Cubs could enter July feeling good about their rotation for the stretch run.

Plenty of arms should be available at the deadline if they do end up needing reinforcements, with the Marlins’ Sandy Alcantara standing out as the most frequently discussed name. Aside from Alcantara, players like Tyler Anderson, Seth Lugo, Chris Bassitt, and Michael Lorenzen could all theoretically be available on the trade market depending on the where their respective clubs find themselves in the standings this summer. Aside from Alcantara, each of those players can become free agents following the 2025 season. That could be preferable for the Cubs in the event they do pursue pitching help given that Steele is expected to pitch most of the 2026 season and each of Shota Imanaga, Matthew Boyd, and Jameson Taillon are already under contract for next year, while the club holds an option on Rea.

Cubs Re-Sign Caleb Kilian To Minor League Deal

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The Cubs re-signed righty Caleb Kilian to a minor league contract, reports Tommy Birch of The Des Moines Register. He’ll return to Triple-A Iowa after being released over the weekend.

Chicago designated Kilian for assignment last Thursday when they acquired Tom Cosgrove in a trade with San Diego. Kilian was on the minor league injured list at the time. Teams cannot place injured players on outright waivers. The Cubs needed to trade Kilian or release him after the DFA. The vast majority of such players will be released. Once they clear waivers, they’re free to talk to all 30 clubs, though it’s common for their former team to try to get them back on a minor league deal.

That’s what happened in this case, so Kilian sticks with the Cubs after a few days on the open market. He’s been in the organization since the 2021 deadline. The Cubs acquired Kilian and outfielder Alexander Canario from the Giants in the Kris Bryant deal. Both players were reasonably well-regarded prospects at the time, though neither has panned out thus far. Canario’s big power has been undercut by huge strikeout tallies. The Cubs moved on from him over the offseason.

Kilian has made eight major league appearances over three seasons. The Texas Tech product has allowed a 9.22 earned run average in 27 1/3 big league innings. He has walked 20 batters with 21 strikeouts. Over parts of four seasons in Triple-A, he carries a 4.37 ERA in 274 frames. His 21.8% strikeout rate is a little worse than average, as is his 9.2% walk percentage. Kilian had only taken the ball once for Iowa this year. He gave up six runs in 2 1/3 innings before leaving with the undisclosed injury that sent him to the IL. He’ll work as non-roster rotation or long relief depth once he’s healthy enough to return to the mound.

Latest On Cubs’ Rotation Plans

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The Cubs’ rotation took a huge hit recently with Justin Steele requiring season-ending elbow surgery. However, they don’t plan to rush out and scramble for external options. Per a report from Patrick Mooney of The Athletic, the club is focused on internal solutions for now.

That’s a fairly understandable position to take at this part of the calendar. There are some unsigned free agents, with Spencer Turnbull arguably the most notable one, but that wouldn’t provide any help in the short term. Such a player would effectively require a delayed spring training ramp up, meaning they wouldn’t be an option for a few weeks even if they were signed today.

The trade market could provide some more hot-and-ready options but there are problems there as well. This early in the season, most clubs are still hoping to contend. The clubs that have no hope of contending this year don’t have a ton of exciting pitchers available.

It could be argued that Sandy Alcantara of the Marlins is the perfect storm of an exciting player on a rebuilding club that should be willing to deal him at any time. The Marlins did trade Luis Arráez in early May of last year, so it’s a possibility with some precedent. However, Will Sammon of The Athletic reported this week that the Fish haven’t yet decided if they will trade Alcantara. There is no real rush for them to decide, as the trade deadline is still months away and they are out to a respectable 8-8 start. Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reports similarly, noting that the Marlins feel they will get better offers in July.

Some less-established pitchers might be available. For instance, the Brewers just acquired Quinn Priester from the Red Sox to bolster their own injury-battered rotation. Priester is a former first-round pick and notable prospect but had a 6.23 earned run average in 99 2/3 career innings when Milwaukee grabbed him. The Brewers gave up the 33rd overall pick in this summer’s draft, a mid-tier prospect (Yophery Rodriguez) and a player to be named later to get him.

The Cubs already have some guys who are more or less in that Priester bucket. Jordan Wicks is a former first-round pick with a 5.02 ERA in 80 2/3 innings. Cade Horton, another first-rounder, hasn’t made his big league debut yet but is in the Triple-A rotation.

They also have a couple of other options. Javier Assad started the season on the injured list due to an oblique strain but has begun a rehab assignment and should be able to rejoin the club soon. As noted by Mooney, the club has a number of off-days coming up on the schedule. That could allow them to ride with a four-man rotation of Shota Imanaga, Matthew Boyd, Jameson Taillon and Ben Brown for a while, with swingman Colin Rea contributing from time to time via spot starts or bulk outings until Assad is back in the mix.

That’s a decent amount of depth for the time being and the club is out to a strong 12-8 start, so they probably don’t feel the need to make a panic move. Once the deadline draws nearer, it seems fair to expect their willingness to trade for external options will increase. It’s possible that guys like Wicks or Horton could take over roles in the coming months but other injuries are also a distinct possibility.

Photo courtesy of Kiyoshi Mio, Imagn Images

Cubs Option Matt Shaw

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The Cubs have optioned third baseman Matt Shaw to Triple-A Iowa, reports Keith Law of The Athletic. That’s part of a larger slate of moves, relayed by Jordan Bastian of MLB.com. Infielder Vidal Bruján has been reinstated from the 10-day injured list. On the pitching side, the club recalled left-hander Luke Little and right-hander Daniel Palencia. To make room for those two, righty Nate Pearson has been optioned to Iowa as well, while righty Eli Morgan has been placed on the 15-day IL due to an elbow impingement.

Shaw, 23, came into the season as one of the top prospects in the league. The club clearly believed he was worthy of a shot at the majors, as they traded Isaac Paredes to the Astros as part of the Kyle Tucker deal in the offseason. That didn’t guarantee Shaw a spot on the Opening Day roster but it opened a door for him, which he walked through. He cracked the club’s roster ahead of the Tokyo Series and has been serving as their regular third baseman up until this point.

The results have been mixed. Across his 68 plate appearances thus far, he has drawn a walk in 14.7% of them, but he’s also been struck out at a 26.5% clip. He has a tepid .172/.294/.241 batting line, though with a .231 batting average on balls in play. That number is on the unlucky side but Shaw hasn’t been doing himself many favors in terms of putting good wood on the ball. His 82.7 mile per hour average exit velocity in the second percentile of qualified MLB hitters, per Statcast. His hard-hit rate is in the fifth percentile, his bat speed in the tenth and his barrel rate 15th. His defense has also been a bit of a question mark. In 141 innings at third base thus far, he already has four errors.

All of that is surely less than the Cubs were hoping for, as he destroyed minor league pitching. After getting selected with the 13th overall pick in the 2023 draft, Shaw got into 159 minor league games between that draft selection and the end of the 2024 season. He had solid walk and strikeout rates of 10.2% and 17.3% respectively while slashing .303/.384/.522 for a 157 wRC+. 35 of those games were at the Triple-A level last year and he hit .298/.395/.534 in those, building the case that he was ready for a major league debut.

Shaw is yet another example of a top prospect who didn’t immediately click at the major league level. While some may jump to declare Shaw a “bust”, this sort of thing is actually quite common. A classic example is Mike Trout, who hit .220/.281/.390 in his first 135 plate appearances back in 2011. It can’t be assumed that a prospect will immediately succeed when reaching the majors for the first time, nor does it mean that they won’t ever find success down the line.

Sending Shaw down is defensible in a vacuum, given his struggles. But outside the vacuum, it’s unclear who the Cubs can turn to as a better option for the hot corner. Bruján has a .189/.261/.270 batting line in his career. Justin Turner has lots of third base experience but is now 40 years old. He’s been more of a first base/designated hitter type in recent years, with just 90 innings at the hot corner since the end of the 2022 season. He’s also having his own struggles at the plate this year, with a .172/.286/.172 line thus far. Jon Berti is a 35-year-old veteran utility guy. Gage Workman is a Rule 5 guy who has received just ten plate appearances thus far this year and has been punched out in five of them.

It’s possible this is just a short-term situation and Shaw will be back up with the big league club soon. How long it takes for his return will be significant for him and the club. By cracking the Opening Day roster, he was on pace to get a full year of service time in 2025. That would have meant qualifying for arbitration after 2027 and free agency after 2030. A quick return to the majors could still make those targets viable. A major league season is 187 days long but a player needs just 172 days in the big leagues or on the injured list to get credited with a full year. It’s also possible for Shaw to qualify for arbitration after 2027 even with less than three years of service time, as he could reach Super Two status.

If Shaw doesn’t return fairly quickly, those timelines will be pushed one year into the future. It will also take off the possibility of the Cubs earning an extra draft pick via the prospect promotion incentive. Under the PPI rules, teams can earn an extra pick by carrying a top prospect on the roster long enough to earn a full service year. The Cubs put that on the table initially by giving Shaw an Opening Day job but it will no longer apply if he’s down for a few weeks.

Photo courtesy of Sergio Estrada, Imagn Images

Justin Steele To Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery

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Cubs southpaw Justin Steele is slated to undergo season-ending surgery on his left elbow, manager Craig Counsell told reporters (including Patrick Mooney of The Athletic) this afternoon. Steele was placed on the injured list with elbow tendinitis shortly after his most recent start against the Rangers and was sent to receive a second opinion on the issue after undergoing an initial MRI on Thursday. Whether or not Steele will require a full Tommy John surgery or instead undergo an internal brace procedure is not yet clear. He won’t pitch again in 2025 in either case, but internal brace procedures typically come with a shorter recovery timeline of around twelve months, as opposed to the timeline for Tommy John, which can stretch up to 18 months and would likely impact much of his 2026 campaign as well.

It’s a gut punch for the Cubs and their fans, particularly given initial indications that Steele’s injury wasn’t especially significant. The southpaw told reporters after his placement on the IL last week that he was expecting a minimum stint on the shelf, and the injury did not initially appear dissimilar from the relatively minor elbow issue that caused him to spend two weeks on the shelf last September. When the club opted to seek a second opinion on Steele’s elbow, they suggested that recurring nature of the tendinitis was the impetus behind their decision to seek a second opinion in hopes of putting a stop to the problem in a more permanent fashion. Evidently, that will require the southpaw to go under the knife.

For at least the rest of 2025, that will leave Chicago without perhaps their most talented pitcher overall. Steele has drawn criticism over the years for his repertoire, which is generally limited to just a fastball and a slider aside from a handful of rarely-used tertiary offerings. Starting pitchers can rarely survive in the majors without at least three average pitches they can lean on, but Steele has managed to buck that trend. The unique properties of his fastball have allowed him to not only survive as a starter, but thrive. From the time he earned a job as a full-time starter in 2022 through the end of the 2024 season, Steele’s 3.10 ERA was sandwiched between Justin Verlander and Sandy Alcantara for the ninth-best figure in baseball. His 3.14 FIP also placed him within the top ten, and his 3.46 SIERA was good for 19th and placed him ahead of well-regarded aces such as Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, and Zac Gallen.

The southpaw wasn’t quite pitching up to that elite level in his first starts of the season. He was lit up to an ugly 6.89 ERA with a 19.4% strikeout rate in his first three starts of the year and, even as he mostly looked like his usual self in his latest start when he struck out eight Rangers across seven scoreless innings, his velocity has been down all year and averaged just barely 90 mph in that start against Texas. For a pitcher who usually sits around 92 mph, that’s a notable and concerning drop in velocity, but it’s nonetheless surely frustrating for the southpaw to be shut down just when he was beginning to turn a corner this year.

With Steele now out for at least the remainder of the year, the Cubs will need to hope for strong health from the remainder of their starting pitching options. Fellow southpaw Shota Imanaga will be leaned on heavily to step in as the team’s ace after a dominant rookie season in the majors where the 31-year-old managed a fifth-place finish in NL Cy Young voting and received an All-Star nod. Looking beyond Imanaga, fans in Chicago are left to hope that veteran Matthew Boyd’s brilliant performance (1.59 ERA, 3.34 FIP) across his first three starts in a Cubs uniform are a signal that he’ll be able to remain healthy and effective this year after four consecutive seasons of injury woes. Righty Jameson Taillon looking anything like he did last season, when he posted a 3.27 ERA and 3.92 FIP in 28 starts, would also go a long way to helping make up for the loss of Steele.

Outside of that veteran trio, the Cubs have little certainty in the rotation. Youngster Ben Brown looked good against the Dodgers in his start against the club yesterday, but carries a 5.09 ERA on the year despite a 3.89 FIP. Veteran swingman Colin Rea has looked good in three scoreless appearances as a long relief arm this year and is filling in for Steele as a spot starter today, though whether that’s Chicago’s long-term plan or just what they’ve decided on for today’s game remains to be seen. Right-hander Javier Assad is presently on the injured list due to an oblique issue but could start a minor league rehab assignment at some point this month.

Aside from those big league options, the club has some pitching depth in the minors as well. Southpaw Jordan Wicks was scratched from his start with Triple-A Iowa last week, though it’s unclear if that was to preserve him as a possible option to start today’s game or due to an injury of his own. Brandon Birdsell was on the radar for a possible big league debut at some point this year, though a shoulder issue has kept him out of action since February with no timetable for return. Top pitching prospect Cade Horton has a 1.23 ERA and 38.7% strikeout rate in his first two starts with Iowa this year, but has not yet fully built up to five inning starts after missing most of last year with his own injury issues. Veteran righty Chris Flexen signed a minor league deal with Chicago over the offseason and remains at Triple-A with the organization as a potential innings-eater, if necessary.

That’s enough depth that the Cubs should be able to get by in the rotation for the time being without much issue, as long as they avoid another major injury. Even so, the eyes of fans in Chicago are surely already turning to the trade deadline this summer. It’s unlikely the Cubs would jump the market and swing a major trade for a starting pitcher this far from July 31, but if the club remains in a strong position to contend this summer it would hardly be a surprise to see them involved in the trade market. Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara is widely expected to be the top arm available, but Tyler Anderson, Chris Bassitt, and Michael Lorenzen are among a number of lesser arms on expiring contracts who could theoretically be available this summer depending on where their respective clubs find themselves in the standings come July.

Cubs Release Caleb Kilian

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The Cubs have released right-hander Caleb Kilian, according to the transactions log on his MLB.com profile page. The righty was designated for assignment by the Cubs last week and presumably passed through waivers unclaimed in the days since his DFA. The Cubs could have outrighted the right-hander to the minor leagues, but evidently did not choose to do so. He’ll now be eligible to sign with any of the league’s 30 clubs without the club needing to carry him on their 40-man roster.

Kilian, 28 in June, got his start in pro ball as an eighth-round pick by the Giants back in 2019. He made just seven appearances in the minors that year, with 16 scoreless innings between rookie ball and Low-A. That impressive start to Kilian’s pro career was put on hold due to 2020’s canceled minor league season, and when he got off to a hot start with the Giants between the High-A and Double-A levels in 2020, Kilian found himself swapped to the Cubs alongside outfielder Alexander Canario at the 2021 trade deadline in the deal that made Kris Bryant a Giant.

That trade kicked off Kilian’s Cubs career, and he made four starts for the club’s Double-A affiliate down the stretch to finish the year with a 2.42 ERA and a 29.2% strikeout rate in 100 1/3 innings across two levels of the minors. Those were solid numbers for the year and put Kilian on the radar for a big league call-up at some point in 2022. He started the year at Triple-A but got his chance with the Cubs in June of that year. His first outing in the majors was a solid run, as he allowed three runs across five innings of work while striking out six and walking two. Things came apart from there, however, and Kilian struggled to a 14.21 ERA with ten walks in just 6 1/3 innings of work against three strikeouts.

That pair of disastrous outings ended Kilian’s first foray into the majors, and his newfound control struggles seemingly followed him back to the minors. After posting a 2.06 ERA with a 9.1% walk rate and a 24.8% strikeout rate in nine Triple-A starts prior to his call-up, Kilian struggled to a 5.37 ERA with a 14.6% walk rate the rest of the way after being optioned back down to the minor leagues. He managed to rein in his wildness in 2023, but that came at the expense of punchouts; Kilian struggled to a 4.56 ERA in 25 Triple-A outings that year despite walking just 7% of his opponents thanks to a lackluster 18.6% strikeout rate.

Last season, Kilian appeared to be in the conversation for a big league job with the Cubs during Spring Training before being sidelined by a teres major strain for several months. When healthy enough to pitch again, Kilian posted a 3.22 ERA in 44 2/3 innings of work at the Triple-A level. That was a marked improvement, but his 20.3% strikeout rate was still lackluster. He continued to struggle at the big league level in brief call-ups to the majors as well, with a 4.22 ERA and 5.98 FIP in 10 2/3 innings of work that brought his career ERA in the majors down to 9.22.

Coming into 2025, Kilian had an odd Spring Training where he struck out 32.3% of his opponents in six innings of work, but also surrendered 12 hits and wound up with a 7.50 ERA. His first start at the Triple-A level was nothing short of disastrous this year, as he surrendered six runs over 2 1/3 innings of work. That wound up being his only outing with the Cubs this year before they decided to pull the plug and designate him for assignment. Now that he’s cleared waivers and been granted his release, the right-hander will have the opportunity to sign with any of the league’s 30 clubs and try to get his career back on track, though it’s also possible he could look to reinvent himself in independent ball or overseas as well.

Cubs, Pete Crow-Armstrong Discussed Contract Extension

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TODAY: The Cubs and Crow-Armstrong have ceased negotiations for now, the Athletic’s Patrick Mooney writes. As per Mooney’s framing, the talks seemed somewhat exploratory in nature, and perhaps more to “lay some groundwork for the future” rather than to complete an extension immediately. There was also some conflict with Feinsand’s report in terms of the $75MM ceiling of the possible extension, as Mooney writes that “team and league sources characterized the outline of that report…as inaccurate.”

APRIL 12: The Cubs recently reached out to center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong’s camp with an extension offer, according to a report from MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. Feinsand relays that the deal would’ve maxed out in the $75MM range if all option years involved in the deal had been exercised, though it would not have reached that figure in terms of total guarantee. The exact structure of the offer is not known and, while Feinsand writes that the sides did not work out a deal, it’s unclear whether talks between the two sides have ended for the time being or could continue going forward.

That Chicago would have interest in extending Crow-Armstrong’s stay in Chicago beyond his years of control is hardly surprising. The longtime top prospect came over from the Mets in the Javier Baez trade at the 2021 trade deadline, and he flew through the minor leagues after arriving in Chicago to make his big league debut late in the 2023 season. Crow-Armstrong’s offense has not been anything special during his time in the majors so far, with a 79 wRC+ overall and an 87 wRC+ in 123 games last year, but he’s more than made up for that lackluster performance at the plate with phenomenal work in the field and on the bases. Crow-Armstrong went an excellent 27-for-30 on the basepaths last year, including 22 straight steals without being caught.

In the field, meanwhile, his +14 Outs Above Average and +11 Defensive Runs Saved were the fifth- and seventh-best figures among all outfielders, while his +16 Fielding Run Value was surpassed among fielders at all positions by only Giants catcher Patrick Bailey. Those defensive accolades become even more impressive when considering that Crow-Armstrong played just 112 games in center field, meaning he put up those huge numbers despite getting less than three-quarters of a full season’s worth of reps. Overall, that defensive and baserunning ability was good for 2.7 fWAR last year despite him being 13% below league average as a hitter.

The fact that Crow-Armstrong has flashed a three-win floor when prorated out over a full season has to be enticing to the Cubs even before considering his solid work on offense in the second half last year, when he slashed .260/.309/.442 with a 108 wRC+ and nine homers over the season’s final three months. If the 23-year-old were ever able to reach that sort of offensive production on a consistent basis, he’d likely blossom into the sort of perennial All-Star Chicago is surely hoping for. That all makes trying to extend Crow-Armstrong, as many other clubs have done with youngsters like Lawrence Butler and Ezequiel Tovar, a sensible goal for the organization.

With that being said, offering Crow-Armstrong a hefty contract under the expectation that he will fulfill that offensive ceiling would be very risky. He certainly wouldn’t be the first extremely talented hitter with five-tool potential to fail to reach that ceiling in the big leagues, and Billy Hamilton’s career serves as a reminder of the fact that a player can’t expect to find success purely off elite defensive and baserunning even if they play a position as defensively important as center field. That surely contributed to a recent poll of MLBTR readers winding up split nearly down the middle on whether or not the Cubs should pursue an extension with the youngster, with just under 52% of respondents voting no.

Chicago’s solution for the wide gap between Crow-Armstrong’s current offensive abilities and his demonstrated potential seems to have been to err on the side of caution. An extension that guarantees Crow-Armstrong significantly less than $75MM would fall below the standard set by many other recent early-career extensions including the aforementioned Butler and Tovar deals as well as deals signed by players like Jackson Chourio and Kristian Campbell just after or before their big league debuts. It’s hard to properly evaluate the deal the Cubs offered Crow-Armstrong without knowing more about the structure; after all, even the deal between Detroit and infielder Colt Keith maxes out in a similar range ($82MM) as the one reported for Crow-Armstrong despite guaranteeing him just $28.6425MM.

Given that even mediocre hitters with the sort of elite defense that Crow-Armstrong possesses like Harrison Bader and Kevin Kiermaier have been paid handsomely in free agency with one-year deals that often fall into the $10MM range, it makes sense that Crow-Armstrong would likely require a healthier guarantee than the one Keith received from the Tigers in order to sign on the dotted line. Evidently, the offer the Cubs presented his camp with did not pass muster, though with the youngster not presently set to hit free agency until after the 2030 season there’s still plenty of time for the two sides to work out a deal that extends his stay in Chicago past those initial years of team control.

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