Grade The Cubs’ Signing Of Craig Kimbrel
It took some time, but one of the game’s greatest relief pitchers finally found a home with the Cubs after shedding the draft compensation that attached when he turned down a qualifying offer from the Red Sox. The Boston organization won’t get a draft pick for letting Craig Kimbrel walk, and the Chicago club won’t have to part with one. The Cubbies will, however, pay Kimbrel $10MM for his services down the stretch and $32MM for two more campaigns (along with a $1MM buyout or $16MM vesting/club option for another).
On the one hand, it’s notable that Kimbrel was still able to secure a significant, multi-year guarantee at this stage of the season. On the other … well, this still feels light. Entering the offseason, following some late-season stumbles from Kimbrel, we predicted $70MM over four years. That was stepped down from what might have been anticipated entering the 2019 campaign; after all, Kimbrel’s 2018 effort was among his most dominant. There were risks, sure, but that’s why we guessed a four instead of a five-year pact.
Kimbrel isn’t going to pitch for the Cubs for the entirety of this season, so there’s a reduction in price there. Even accounting for that, this contract still falls shy of the one the Rockies gave Wade Davis in the 2017-18 offseason. That three-year, $52MM pact (with a fourth-year vesting/club option) seemed like an obvious floor for Kimbrel. After all, Davis was an older pitcher who couldn’t match Kimbrel’s levels of dominance. And the Davis contract was signed even though it cost the Rox a second-round draft choice.
While it’s certainly hard to fault Kimbrel for preferring the best-available multi-year arrangement at this stage, he’s probably leaving some upside on the table by taking that route now rather than going for a pure rental agreement. It’s also still a significant commitment for a Cubs team that declared itself out of money over the winter but found some in the interim (in some part through an unusual situation with an expensive veteran). This isn’t a risk-free transaction; far from it, particularly given Kimbrel’s most recent on-field showing and the fact that he’ll be ramping up in the middle of an ongoing season.
How do you grade the signing from the team’s perspective?
(Poll link for app users.)
Grade The Cubs' Signing Of Craig Kimbrel
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A 47% (13,716)
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B 30% (8,698)
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C 14% (4,071)
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F 4% (1,227)
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D 4% (1,199)
Total votes: 28,911
Draft Notes: Leiter, Mets, Allan, Cubs, Rutschman
The Yankees called a familiar name with their 20th-round selection, drafting high school pitcher Jack Leiter. The right-hander is the son of former Yankees pitcher and broadcaster Al Leiter, and is considered one of the top arms of the entire draft class. Were it not for the younger Leiter’s commitment to attend Vanderbilt in the fall, he “would have gone [in the] top 10 picks, easy” a scout tells MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). (The consensus among pundits wasn’t quite that lofty, though he was seen as a high-end draft prospect.) It isn’t unusual for teams to take a flier of a pick on such prospects just to see if they could be enticed to begin their pro careers early, and despite the past ties between the Yankees and the Leiter family, both Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper and MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand believe Jack Leiter will indeed head to Vanderbilt. Cooper doesn’t think the Yankees have the bonus pool budget available to offer Leiter anything close to his asking price to forego his college commitment, while Feinsand counters any suggestion of a possible wink-wink deal between Leiter and his dad’s old team by noting that the senior Leiter currently works for the Mets as an advisor in the baseball ops department.
As the draft officially comes to an end for another year, here’s more news and notes from the 2019 class…
- The Mets selected high-school right-hander Matthew Allan with the 89th overall pick, an intriguing part of a strategy by the team to focus their efforts “into largely a three-player draft,” J.J. Cooper writes for Baseball America. Allan is another of the draft’s top high-school arms, but reportedly wanted a $4MM bonus (greater than the slot price for all but the top 14 picks) to turn pro rather than attend the University of Florida. The 89th overall pick only carries a $667.9K recommended price, though the Mets drafted all college seniors (who have less negotiating leverage) in rounds 4-10 to potentially carve out space in their bonus pool. By saving money on those picks and perhaps even on first-rounder Brett Baty, the Mets could have enough to meet Allan’s price. Matt Ehalt of Yahoo Sports also reports that Allan’s actual demand is “not near the $4MM that has been thrown out,” so the team could have even more breathing room.
- The Cubs haven’t had much success in developing their own pitchers in recent years, and their pick of right-hander Ryan Jensen with the 27th overall selection represents how the team is adjusting its thinking in trying to solve this problem, MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian writes. “Ryan Jensen certainly hits the nail on the head in terms of things that I’ve talked about that we probably avoided,” Cubs senior VP of player development and amateur scouting Jason McLeod told Bastian and other reporters. Jensen has had mechanical issues during his time at Fresno State, and at only 6’0″ tall and 180 pounds, the righty doesn’t cut an imposing figure on the mound. The young hurler had two important supporters, however, in Cubs area scout Gabe Zappi and pitching coordinator Brendan Sagara, plus McLeod was himself impressed watching one of Jensen’s starts in person on May 16.
- Reports from the night prior to the draft suggested that the Orioles were still considering multiple options as the first overall pick, and GM Mike Elias indeed told reporters (including MLB.com’s Joe Trezza) that “the first four picks were all under significant discussion from us at one point or another.” Rather than take Bobby Witt Jr., Andrew Vaughn, or JJ Bleday, the O’s instead stuck to expectations and chose top-rated prospect Adley Rutschman. “There are pros and cons with every player profile and every player. We like to work our way through all of that and ultimately decided for the long-range benefit of the organization that this was the right pick,” Elias said. It’s hard to argue with the choice, given that Rutschman was widely seen as the top talent available in this year’s class (and perhaps in many years). Elias praised his new player as “a team leader on and off the field” and “a future fixture for this organization.”
Theo Epstein Discusses Ben Zobrist
The Cubs placed utility player Ben Zobrist on the restricted list May 8 because of a personal matter, though it wasn’t clear whether they were still paying him. Almost a month later, Zobrist still hasn’t returned to the Cubs, but we now know the 38-year-old hasn’t counted against their books in his absence.
With Zobrist on a $12MM salary in 2019, the last season of a four-year, $56MM contract, Chicago has saved just over $2MM since he left the team, per Steve Greenberg of the Chicago Sun-Times. The Cubs will continue to save the same amount for each month Zobrist spends on the restricted list, Greenberg notes.
There’s still no word on whether Zobrist will return this season, but president of baseball operations Theo Epstein spoke about him Wednesday, saying (via Greenberg): “He’s been communicative with us. We have an understanding of what’s going on with him.”
“Families and personal lives come first — that’s the rule we run our organization by,” continued Epstein, who added that Zobrist “[doesn’t] owe us anything.”
If we judge Zobrist solely by the on-field value he has provided during his run with the Cubs, he truly doesn’t owe the club anything. Although he got off to a subpar start this season before he went on the restricted list, Zobrist has been one of the Cubs’ most valuable players for a large portion of his tenure with the team. And if Zobrist never suits up for the Cubs again, he may have indirectly left them a parting gift in the form of all-time great closer Craig Kimbrel.
The Cubs were able to reach an agreement on a three-year, $43MM deal with Kimbrel on Wednesday, in part because they’re not paying Zobrist. Chicago shied away from big-money additions in the offseason because of luxury tax ramifications, but Zobrist’s exit – whether temporary or permanent – helped give the World Series hopefuls the necessary spending room to win the long-running Kimbrel sweepstakes.
Cubs To Sign Sixth-Rounder Ethan Hearn
The Cubs have reached an agreement with their sixth-round pick, high school catcher Ethan Hearn, NBC Sports Chicago’s David Kaplan reports (Twitter link). Hearn had been committed to Mississippi State, though he will instead begin his pro career after receiving a substantially large signing bonus. Kaplan reports that Hearn “will receive second round money,” rather than the $247K recommended slot price attached to the 192nd overall selection. This likely means Hearn’s bonus is in the seven figures, as the second-round slot prices range from $929.8K to just over $1.771MM.
Hearn’s college commitment dropped him into the sixth round, though most draft pundits projected him in the low-second/high-third round area (Baseball America ranked him 66th among all draft prospects, and Hearn was ranked 67th by MLB.com, and 71st by Fangraphs). Generally considered the top high school catcher in this year’s draft class, Hearn is described by Baseball America’s scouting report as possessing “above-average raw power but a below-average hit tool” for now. He has a strong throwing arm and strong defensive potential behind the plate, though his overall defensive work may still need some seasoning, which isn’t unusual for such a young catcher.
By going significantly over slot to sign Hearn, the Cubs will eat into a big chunk of their $5,826,900 overall draft pool. It’s worth noting that Hearn is the only high schooler taken within Chicago’s first seven picks, so the Cubs have positioned themselves to create some savings elsewhere.
Cubs Making Push For Craig Kimbrel
The Cubs are “pushing hard” to sign free-agent closer Craig Kimbrel, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (via Twitter). He’d obviously be a much-needed upgrade for a Cubs ‘pen that has been without closer Brandon Morrow all season and has endured numerous other injuries so far in 2019.
If a deal does indeed come to fruition, it’d represent a change of course for the Cubs, who spent the offseason making a series of small-scale additions due to ownership’s claim that the team simply didn’t have the resources to add to the team’s payroll. Kimbrel has been reported to be seeking a three-year pact, so it’s possible that the Cubs could backload a multi-year offer to ease up on the financial burden for the current season, but they’d still pay a 32 percent luxury tax on the average annual value of Kimbrel’s contract. The Cubs’ payroll already tops $213MM, and their luxury-tax payroll (calculated by the combined average annual values of all the contracts on the roster) checks in north of $227MM, per Roster Resources’ Jason Martinez.
Chicago recently welcomed Pedro Strop back from the injured list, and adding Kimbrel would be a second boon to the relief corps in a short period of time. Kimbrel won’t be ready to step directly into a game setting, of course, but he’s assuredly been throwing in preparation to join a team as soon as possible. In all likelihood, he’d build up over a relatively brief minor league stint and join his new team within a matter of weeks.
As soon as the calendar flipped from Sunday to Monday this week, Kimbrel and fellow free agent holdout Dallas Keuchel were freed from the burden of draft-pick compensation, so signing him would only cost the Cubs money at this point. He’s also been somewhat prominently connected to the Twins, although it’s quite arguable that the Cubs’ need is greater. Minnesota is enjoying a 10.5-game lead in the American League Central, whereas all four teams in the NL Central are within 5.5 games of the Cubs; the Brewers, in particular, are only a half game back of the Cubs in the standings.
The most common other suitors listed for Kimbrel have been in the NL East: the division-leading Phillies and Kimbrel’s original organization, the Braves. Philadelphia has reportedly only been interested in Kimbrel on a short-term deal, however (presumably, a one-year pact). As for the Braves, their interest in Kimbrel has clearly never aligned with the fanbase’s at times ravenous desire to see Kimbrel once again take the mound in Braves gear. The Atlanta faithful have gone so far as to audibly chant, “We want Kimbrel” during Braves games at SunTrust Park, but the front office has maintained a more measured approach to whatever interest it holds in bringing Kimbrel back to Georgia.
Cubs To Activate Pedro Strop
The Cubs will welcome back reliever Pedro Strop from the injured list, manager Joe Maddon tells Bruce Levine of 670 The Score (Twitter link). Fellow righty Dillon Maples was optioned down to make room.
Strop’s return from a hamstring injury is an important step for a club that has had its share of relief issues of late. The Chicago pen has blown more saves (seven) in the past month than all but one other team (the Mets, with nine). Adding Strop back to the late-inning mix will not only give Maddon another key arm to work with in high-leverage situations but will help deepen the rest of the unit.
Soon to turn 34, Strop has long been a reliable piece for the Cubs. Since landing in Chicago, he carries a 2.71 ERA with 10.2 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 over 342 frames of action. He has allowed just 5.7 hits and 0.6 home runs per nine in that span.
It’s tough to say much after a twelve-appearance sample, but Strop was perhaps a tick off to begin the season. His velocity has continued to trend down, albeit at a gentle pace, and he had permitted six earned runs in his 10 2/3 innings. Most of the damage came in two outings to open the year.
The Cubs will be glad to throw Strop back in the mix to see whether he can get back to his usual productivity. Whether or not he’ll retake the closer’s job from Steve Cishek remains to be seen. The club would prefer to have both of those pitchers working in a setup capacity in front of Brandon Morrow, but it’s anyone’s guess whether and when he’ll return.
Poll: Recent No. 2 Picks
With the first round of the Major League Baseball draft in the works, teams are angling to land long-term cornerstones as we speak. The Royals, for instance, tabbed high school shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. second overall on Monday. If things go according to plan, he’ll evolve into a franchise player the way other recent second overall selections have. The best No. 2 choices over the past several years have been Kris Bryant, who joined the Cubs in 2013, and 2015 Astros pick Alex Bregman. The two have become stars since their respective draft nights, but whom would you rather have?
Bryant, now 27, exploded on the scene in 2015, winning NL Rookie of the Year honors with a 6.1-fWAR season, and hasn’t looked back since. The third baseman/outfielder added an NL MVP and a World Series to his list of accomplishments in 2016, the season he helped the Cubs break a 108-year title drought. Bryant’s now a two-time All-Star with a career slash line of .284/.386/.518 (141 wRC+), 120 home runs and 25.3 fWAR in 2,715 lifetime plate appearances.
Bregman’s also a world champion, having aided in the Astros’ victory in 2017. That was the year after Bregman debuted in the majors. Since then, the 25-year-old infielder – whose primary position is third – has earned an All-Star nod and batted a Bryant-like .280/.369/.507 (140 wRC+) with 75 long balls, 31 steals and 14.8 fWAR across 1,804 trips to the plate.
Beyond the fact that they’re two of the most valuable players in baseball, Bryant and Bregman are each under control for at least the next couple seasons. Bryant, who’s on a $12.9MM salary, has two more years of arbitration eligibility left after this one. The Astros, on the other hand, will avoid the arb process with Bregman as they move forward. Houston locked Bregman up to a five-year, $100MM extension prior to the season, meaning he’s under wraps through 2024.
Age and team control may play a factor as you choose between Bryant and Bregman. Regardless of which player you prefer, though, it’s obvious these are two of the premier first-rounders in recent history. They give hope to every downtrodden franchise that had a high pick Monday.
(Poll link for app users)
Who's the better building block?
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Alex Bregman 66% (4,998)
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Kris Bryant 34% (2,632)
Total votes: 7,630
Cubs Select Carlos Gonzalez, Designate Jim Adduci For Assignment
The Cubs have selected the contract of veteran outfielder Carlos Gonzalez from Triple-A, per a team announcement. His promotion was first reported by Daniel Alvarez Montas of El Extra Base (Twitter link). In a corresponding move, outfielder/first baseman Jim Adduci has been designated for assignment (as ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers suggested would be the case).
Gonzalez, 33, began the season on a minor league deal with the Indians but cracked the big league roster there in late April. His time with Cleveland didn’t prove fruitful, however, as he struggled to a .210/.282/.276 batting line with a pair of home runs, a double and 33 strikeouts in 117 plate appearances. The former All-Star, batting champion and MVP candidate signed a minor league deal with Chicago last week. His power and overall offensive performance has waned in recent seasons, but Gonzalez did hit .276/.329/.467 with 16 homers for the Rox a season ago.
The Cubs are essentially taking a free look at Gonzalez to see if he can help to provide some left-handed punch to their lineup. At the moment, with Ben Zobrist away from the team indefinitely and Ian Happ posting pedestrian numbers in Iowa, the Cubs’ only lefty bats off the bench were Adduci and backup catcher Victor Caratini (a switch-hitter). He’ll get a new chance to prove he still has some fuel left in the tank and will be thrown right into the mix; Gonzalez is hitting fifth and playing right field for the Cubs today.
Adduci, 34, went hitless in five plate appearances with Chicago after joining the roster last week. He batted .261/.306/.478 through 41 games in Iowa prior to his call back to the Majors and hit .267/.290/.386 in 185 plate appearances for the Tigers last season.
Cubs Showing Interest In Craig Kimbrel
All winter long and into the season, through the unavailability (for one reason or another) of backend bullpen notables Brandon Morrow, Pedro Strop and Carl Edwards Jr., messaging out of Chicago’s front office has been as consistent as the bullpen has been fickle: the Cubs have no money to spend. Yet, the Northsiders are suddenly showing interest in Craig Kimbrel, per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal.
The Cubs financial story remains the same with one new wrinkle: an unfortunate family situation has left utility maven Ben Zobrist on the restricted list since May 8th. If his divorce continues to keep him out of action – which seems likelier than not at this point – the Cubs could recoup a good portion of his salary (in the neighborhood of $9MM), at least as far as the luxury tax is concerned. This new math could give the Cubs just enough room to make a viable run at Kimbrel. Roster resource pegs Chicago’s luxury tax number at around $223MM, whereas Spotrac puts the Cubs at around $200MM. The latter number puts the Cubs a little more than $5MM shy of paying the luxury tax, but Rosenthal suggests the Cubs aren’t as concerned about the tax in general as they are the $246MM line that incurs the harshest penalties. Whether current spending has them just under the first threshold ($206MM) or the second threshold ($226MM), either valuation of their current payroll ought to leave enough room to make a competitive offer to Kimbrel while staying under (at least) the final tax line. There are, of course, other potential suitors courting Kimbrel.
And yet, even if they can make the math work, the months of consistent messaging casts some doubt onto a Cubs’ pursuit of Kimbrel. What we know for certain is that Theo Epstein and company are not shy about doing due diligence, and if history holds, they’ll make at least one notable move before the trade deadline. Epstein has been active on the trade market throughout his Chicago tenure, making at least one deadline acquisition each season dating back to 2015: Dan Haren (2015), Aroldis Chapman & Mike Montgomery (2016), Jose Quintana, Alex Avila & Justin Wilson (2017), Cole Hamels, Brandon Kintzler & Jesse Chavez (2018). There aren’t many misses in this group either, as most of these acquisitions have found ways to contribute (nor are there many position players).
This year, of course, they won’t have the August 31 deadline to take advantage of as they have in every season since emerging as surprise contenders in 2015: Austin Jackson & Fernando Rodney (2015), Joe Smith (2016), Leonys Martin (2017) and Daniel Murphy (2018). In a condensed trading period, the Cubs may prove more aggressive in pursuing a backend talent like Kimbrel.
Still, this could be the year the Cubs don’t make an impact move. They’re not wholly unprepared to go to battle with the arms in-house, per The Atheltic’s Sahadev Sharma, who spotlights Dillon Maples, Rowan Wick, and Adbert Alzolay as three depth arms who could make a difference this summer.
Maples has a ton of swing-and-miss in his arsenal, but he also doesn’t have a clue how to harness it, as evidenced in his small sample with the big league club this year. Through six appearances, he’s amassed 4 2/3 innings with eight walks and ten strikeouts. A less-than-five-inning sample hardly packs enough punch to make a statement, but still, 15.4 BB/9 and 19.3 K/9 are jarring numbers to see, especially once you notice they aren’t that far off the norm for Maples. In parts of three seasons at Triple-A, Maples owns a 2.93 ERA with 8.0 BB/9 and 16.4 K/9.
Alzolay, meanwhile, has long been a promising arm for Chicago, but he has yet to make his major league debut, while Wick came to the Cubs from the Padres for Jason Vosler this past winter. Wick was recently recalled after posting strong numbers in Iowa (4.14 K/BB). The Cubs should have high aspirations come October, and betting on this trio of arms to outlast a deep division and long playoff run would be a gamble. So while they may be inclined to use the month of June to evaluate the arms in-house, a decision on Kimbrel will have to be made much much sooner.
Poll: Choose Your Franchise Catcher
Although potential Hall of Famers Buster Posey and Yadier Molina are among the most decorated catchers in baseball history, it appears the two 30-somethings have given way to a new guard at the position. J.T. Realmuto, Gary Sanchez and Willson Contreras stand out as the most valuable behind-the-plate building blocks in today’s game, owing to performance, age and affordable control. The Brewers’ Yasmani Grandal also belongs in the current class of elite backstops, but the fact that he’s 30 years old, expensive and only signed through this season works against him in comparison to Realmuto, Contreras and Sanchez.
Among those three, the longest big league track record belongs to the Phillies’ Realmuto, who’s in his age-28 season. The athletic Realmuto broke out with the Marlins in 2016 and proceeded to rack up 11.3 fWAR through last year, trailing only Posey and Grandal at his position. He’s fresh off back-to-back 4.0-fWAR seasons and is on a similar pace in his first year as a Phillie.
So far in his new digs, Realmuto has accounted for 2.0 fWAR through 208 plate appearances. While Realmuto’s offensive production has dropped from where it was over the previous three seasons (115 wRC+), his 102 wRC+ remains far above average for his position (89). He’s also an all-world defensive player who possesses far more speed than you’d expect a catcher to have. If there’s one check against Realmuto, it’s that he’s only under control for another season after this one, in which he’s earning $5.9MM.
No full-time catcher has fared better at the plate this season than the hard-hitting Sanchez, whose 154 wRC+ ranks 18th among all players with at least 100 PA. The 26-year-old has mashed 17 home runs, good for a fifth-place tie, to put an uninspiring 2018 behind him. Sanchez combined for 7.5 fWAR from 2016-17, his first two seasons, but fell to 1.7 in ’18 and sits well behind Realmuto this season (1.2). Although Sanchez has a big arm, he’s not in Realmuto’s stratosphere as an overall defender. However, Sanchez is making barely over the league minimum this year and comes with three more seasons of control via arbitration.
Contreras, who turned 27 on May 13, has been a revelation at the plate since he debuted in 2016. Dating back to then, Contreras’ 119 wRC+ ranks second among backstops (only Sanchez’s 128 has been better), while his 7.5 fWAR is eighth. He’s at 152 and 1.7 in those categories this year, having swatted 12 homers and gotten on base at a 40 percent clip. Although Contreras has not gotten rave reviews behind the plate this season or for most of his career, his offense, age and affordability are all huge pluses. Like Sanchez, he’s in his final pre-arb season and controllable through 2022.
Considering all of the above factors, which of these three catchers would you want to build a team around?
(poll link for app users)
Choose Your Franchise Catcher
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J.T. Realmuto 40% (5,316)
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Gary Sanchez 31% (4,139)
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Willson Contreras 29% (3,947)
Total votes: 13,402