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The Cubs Keep Trying The Same Thing, And It’s Not Working

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While the Cubs' 2024 season got out to a strong start that saw them sitting a season-high seven games above .500 on May 12, things have spiraled quickly. Since opening the year 24-17, Chicago has played at an abysmal 14-27 clip. That's six and a half weeks of .341 ball that has dropped them to 38-44 -- last place in the National League Central. They're 10.5 games back of the Brewers for the division lead. A four-game deficit in the NL Wild Card race normally wouldn't seem insurmountable, but it's a bit more daunting when a whopping seven teams stand between them and the final Wild Card spot.

There's no shortage of flaws with the current iteration of the Cubs. They're tied for 21st in the majors in home runs, tied for 18th in runs scored and tied for 24th in both batting average and slugging percentage. They've received no production at all from their catchers. On the pitching side, the rotation has had its share of health-related struggles. Justin Steele missed all of April and another start in May. Javier Assad just joined fellow young starters Ben Brown and Jordan Wicks on the injured list. The Cubs' defense has been middle-of-the-pack, at best.

There's one glaring struggle that's plagued them again and again in recent years, however, and one of the driving reasons behind it is easy to see.

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Cubs Place Javier Assad On Injured List

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The Cubs made some roster moves today, with Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune among those to relay them on X. As was previously reported, the Cubs signed right-hander Vinny Nittoli. To open a spot for him on the active roster, fellow righty Javier Assad has been placed on the 15-day injured list with a right forearm extensor strain. Righty Yency Almonte was transferred to the 60-day IL to give Nittoli a 40-man spot. Assad’s move is retroactive to June 24, per Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times on X.

At this point, it’s unclear how severe Assad’s injury is or how long the club expects him to be out of action, but it’ll be a blow for them regardless. Assad has made 16 starts for the club so far this year, allowing 3.04 earned runs per nine innings. There’s probably a bit of good luck in that number, as Assad’s 83.3% strand rate and .276 batting average on balls in play are both on the fortunate side. His 4.16 FIP and 4.22 SIERA suggest he would have trouble maintaining that kind of run prevention going forward.

Regardless, it’s still less than ideal for the Cubs to lose yet another arm to the injured list. They recently had Ben Brown and Jordan Wicks land on the IL, which forced Kyle Hendricks back into a rotation role, after he struggled earlier in the year and got kicked to the bullpen. The bullpen has also been undercut by injuries, with Almonte, Adbert Alzolay, Julian Merryweather and Mark Leiter Jr. all on the shelf.

Around all of those injuries, the club has been falling in the standings. They were 18-12 at the end of April but have gone 19-32 since, putting them at 37-44 at the moment. That’s still just five games back of a playoff spot in the weak National League Wild Card standings, but they’re currently the worst team in the NL apart from the Marlins and Rockies. That gives them a slim margin for error with the deadline just over a month away and losing a solid rotation member like Assad for even just a few weeks doesn’t help.

Without Assad, the rotation consists of Hendricks, Justin Steele, Jameson Taillon and Shota Imanaga. They will need to come up with a fifth starter soon and also play seven games in six days just before the All-Star break, thanks to a July 13 double-header in St. Louis. Hayden Wesneski made a spot start yesterday, tossing four innings, and could perhaps get the ball again in the coming days. Drew Smyly has plenty of starting experience but has been in a relief role this year. Top pitching prospect Cade Horton is shut down with a subscapularis strain and unavailable at the moment. Thomas Pannone, Dan Straily and Kyle McGowin are in the system on minor league deals and stretched out in the minors, though none of that trio currently has a roster spot.

As for Almonte, he’s been on the injured list since May 8 due to a shoulder strain. This transfer means he can’t be reinstated until 60 days from that date, which would be July 7. He wasn’t going to be ready before then anyhow. A few days ago, manager Craig Counsell told reporters that Almonte would be getting a second opinion after hitting a wall in his recovery attempts. “We’re just not progressing,” Counsell said, per Montemurro on X. “We have to find out whether medically there’s something we have to address or we have to take a different path on the rehab.”

Cubs, Vinny Nittoli Agree To Major League Deal

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The Cubs and right-handed reliever Vinny Nittoli are in agreement on a major league contract, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan. The Gaeta Sports Management client was recently designated for assignment by the A’s and elected free agency over an outright assignment to Triple-A. Chicago will need to open a spot on its 40-man roster once the addition of Nittoli is official.

Nittoli, 33, spent time with the Cubs’ Triple-A club in Iowa last year but never received a call to the big leagues despite pitching well in Des Moines. He’s out of minor league options, so he’ll jump right onto the big league roster this time around, however, as the Cubs hope to catch lightning in a bottle on another DFA reclamation in their bullpen after hitting paydirt on righty Tyson Miller.

A 25th-round pick by the Mariners back in 2014, Nittoli is the embodiment of a journeyman reliever who has persevered through the prototypical minor league grind. He made his MLB debut at age 29 in 2020, more than six years after being drafted as a senior sign out of Xavier, and has spent time in the minors or big leagues with one-third of the teams in Major League Baseball. Even after exhausting all three of his minor league options and logging big league time in each of the past four seasons, Nittoli has just 14 2/3 MLB innings and 52 days of MLB service to his name.

It’s a small sample, but Nittoli has pitched well in that time. He’s held opponents to five runs on 13 hits, five walks and a pair of hit batsmen with 10 strikeouts along the way — good for a 3.07 earned run average. That run-prevention mark in a small sample greatly outpaces the career 4.73 ERA Nittoli has put together in five Triple-A seasons (177 innings). That said, Nittoli’s Triple-A strikeout rate of 30.5% is far better than what he’s managed in the big leagues, while his 8.5% walk rate in Triple-A is right in line with his 8.2% mark in the majors.

The Cubs have now signed Nittoli twice — this time putting him directly on the MLB roster — so they’re clearly intrigued by the well-traveled righty. Nittoli changed up his pitch mix last year, scrapping a 92-93 mph four-seamer for a cutter that sits around 90 mph as his primary offering. With Oakland, he paired that pitch with a slider that averaged 83.2 mph and threw a handful of sinkers and changeups as well.

After an 18-12 start to the season, the Cubs have been reeling for the better part of two months. They’ve followed a 10-18 showing in May with a 9-14 showing in June and now sit seven games below .500 — last in the National League Central. They’re what should be a manageable five games back in the NL Wild Card chase, but given the leaguewide mediocrity in the Senior Circuit, that actually puts them third from last in the chase. They’d need to vault a whopping seven teams to claim the third Wild Card spot, as of this writing.

Chicago’s bullpen has been a major culprit in their struggles. Cubs relievers have a collective 4.52 ERA that sits 24th in the majors. Their 24.4% strikeout rate is a strong mark, landing eighth in MLB, but only the Rangers bullpen (11.9%) has issued walks at a higher rate than the Cubs’ 11.3% — and only four teams (Blue Jays, Rays, Angels, White Sox) have surrendered homers more frequently.

Certainly, making a low-risk bet on a 33-year-old with a strong track record of missing bats in the upper minors isn’t going to magically cure all those deficiencies, but it’s sensible to see the Cubs taking some action at a time when the trade market is still in its infancy. The aforementioned parity in the NL — and things are bunched only a bit less tightly in the AL — has left very few clear-cut sellers with just over a month until the July 30 deadline. Currently, there are nine teams within five games of a Wild Card spot between the two leagues. With few clubs wanting to part with major league help given their proximity to a potential postseason spot, there aren’t many options for teams like the Cubs as they look for ways to upgrade the roster.

MLBTR Podcast: Injured Trade Candidates, The Cristopher Sánchez Extension And Blue Jays’ Woes

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • “What would it take for the Rockies to consider trading some young assets like Ryan McMahon or Brendan Rodgers?” (23:55)
  • “The Astros are clearly out of it, so why isn’t Ryan Pressly a top target of teams with bad bullpens?” (30:35)
  • “Would the Marlins or Nationals trade with the Mets, Phillies or Braves, with Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Lane Thomas being good fits?” (39:25)
  • “Will T.J. McFarland of the Athletics be traded to the Cubs or another contender?” (47:45)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Cubs Release Yan Gomes

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The Cubs have released veteran catcher Yan Gomes, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. That was the expected outcome after he was designated for assignment last week. He’s now a free agent and can sign with any club.

Gomes is a veteran with over a thousand games in the majors and a 37th birthday coming up next month. He has spent most of that as a solid defender behind the plate with some inconsistent but potent offense. He doesn’t draw a lot of walks and can be strikeout prone, but he’s generally been a reliable source of double-digit home runs whenever he gets regular playing time.

Going into the 2022 season, the Cubs signed him to a two-year deal with a $13MM guarantee and a $6MM club option for 2024. His first season with the Cubs was a bit of a disappointment but he hit 10 home runs last year and slashed .267/.315/.408 for a wRC+ of 95. That means he was 5% below league average overall but that’s a strong result for a catcher.

The Cubs picked up the option for 2024 but the results from Gomes took a nosedive. In 96 plate appearances with the Cubs this year, he slashed .154/.179/.242. He walked just 2.1% of the time while getting punched out at a massive 37.5% clip and the defensive metrics soured on him as well.

The club was also seeing significant struggles from youngster Miguel Amaya, turning the catching position into a black hole on the roster. Amaya is just 25 years old and has five years of club control beyond this one, so the Cubs weren’t likely to give up on him based on a few rough months, but he has exhausted his option years and can’t be sent down to the minors. That left Gomes squeezed off the roster with a few months left on his contract.

No other club was going to acquire Gomes based on how rough he’s been this year, as doing so would involve absorbing what’s left of his salary, just over $3MM. He has more than enough service time to reject an outright assignment, so the Cubs have released him, which leaves them on the hook for the remainder of that money.

Any of the other clubs can now sign him while only paying him the prorated version of the major league minimum salary, with that amount subtracted from what the Cubs pay. Despite his rough season, perhaps that will spur some team to take a low-cost chance on him based on his track record. He has 137 career home runs and a .246/.295/.412 slash line overall, with that translating to an 89 wRC+.

Injury Notes: Luplow, Brown, Darvish

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Outfielder Jordan Luplow, who signed a minor league deal with the Phillies in March, is done for the year with a right knee ACL tear. The account @Kram207 was among those to relay the info on X.

Luplow has mostly been a small-side platoon guy in his career, as the right-handed hitter has a line of .227/.338/.495 against lefties over several seasons. This year, he had stepped to the plate 254 times at the Triple-A level with a line of .255/.343/.450. His splits were closer to even with the IronPigs, though in a small sample of 184 plate appearances against righties and 70 against lefties.

Perhaps there would have been a path to playing time in the Philadelphia outfield. Johan Rojas struggled enough to get optioned down to the minors. Brandon Marsh and David Dahl are lefties with notable platoon splits. The right-handed counterparts in their platoons are Whit Merrifield and Cristian Pache, who are both struggling.

With this season-ending injury for Luplow, that won’t be an option for the Phils to even consider anymore. Perhaps Edmundo Sosa will be a factor on the grass, since he has a bit of experience out there and played well while Trea Turner was on the IL. The Phils don’t have a lot of holes heading into the July 30 trade deadline but adding an intriguing righty bat to the bench could be one target, especially with Luplow no longer there as a depth option.

Some other notable injury updates from around baseball…

  • The Cubs placed right-hander Ben Brown on the injured list a couple of weeks ago with a neck strain, though subsequent reporting provided the more ominous-sounding diagnosis of a stress reaction in his neck. The timeline was and is murky, but Brown was able to throw from 90 feet recently, per Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune. Brown says that he was told at the time of his diagnosis that he’s already through the worst of his ailment. Montemurro describes the prognosis as a “two- to three-month burnout period,” with the first month being the worst. Brown and Jordan Wicks hit the IL within a week of each other, thinning the Cubs rotation and forcing Kyle Hendricks back into a starting role. The club is 37-41 but that still has them two games out of a playoff spot in the weak NL race. The club will try to ramp Brown up from here as long as there are no symptoms and hopefully get him back into the mix as his body allows. He has a 3.58 ERA on the year through 55 1/3 innings.
  • The Padres are another club in that NL race with some rotation injuries but Yu Darvish will be back tomorrow, with AJ Cassavell of MLB.com relaying the word from manager Mike Shildt on X. Darvish had made 11 starts with a 3.20 ERA before landing on the IL with a left groin strain. He and Joe Musgrove landed on the shelf at the same time, forcing the club to use less experienced hurlers like Randy Vásquez and Adam Mazur. With Mazur posting an ERA of 7.10 in his first four starts and getting optioned recently, the return of Darvish should give the San Diego rotation a boost. The Friars are 41-41 and currently holding the final Wild Card spot in the National League, but there are seven clubs within three games of them.

Cubs Place Mark Leiter Jr. On 15-Day Injured List

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The Cubs announced that right-hander Mark Leiter Jr. has been placed on the 15-day injured list due to a right forearm strain.  Left-hander Luke Little has been called up from Triple-A Iowa to take Leiter’s spot on the 26-man roster.

After posting a sterling 0.90 ERA over his first 20 innings of the season, Leiter’s performance has dipped sharply, with a ghastly 15.58 ERA over 8 2/3 innings in his last 12 appearances.  Leiter’s last four outings specifically saw him touched up for eight earned runs over 3 1/3 innings of work, so it seems possible that these games might’ve been impacted by the forearm strain if Leiter had been trying to pitch through some discomfort.

All in all, Leiter has a 5.34 ERA over 28 2/3 innings this season, yet with a much more respectable set of secondary metrics.  Leiter’s SIERA is only 2.96, as a .338 BABIP and a 55% strand rate have been working against him.  On the plus side, Leiter has a strong 48.7% grounder rate, quality hard-contract numbers, and a 30.2% strikeout rate that sits in the 91st percentile of all pitchers.

Leiter’s walk rate is below average, but that was also true during the 2022-23 seasons, when he emerged as a very effective weapon out of Chicago’s bullpen.  Leiter posted a 5.53 ERA in 114 innings with the Phillies and Blue Jays in 2017-18, but then didn’t pitch another big league inning for three full seasons, due to a Tommy John surgery, the pandemic-shortened nature of the 2020 season, and a stint in the Tigers’ farm system in 2021 that didn’t result in a call-up to the Show.

The Cubs signed Leiter to a minor league deal prior to the 2022 season, and then another minors contract in the 2022-23 offseason.  The moves have become nice hidden-gem discoveries for the team, as Leiter had a 3.75 ERA and 27.2% strikeout rate over 132 innings in 2022-23, albeit with an 8.9% walk rate.  Working first as a swingman, Leiter became a key set-up man behind closer Adbert Alzolay last season.

Unfortunately, Leiter now joins Alzolay and Julian Merryweather on the injured list, as the Cubs are without their three top bullpen arms.  Merrywether is expected to return from a stress fracture in his ribs by around the All-Star break, while Alzolay’s return from a right flexor strain is still up the air.  Details on Leiter’s forearm strain haven’t yet been revealed, but naturally any kind of a forearm issue is a big concern, particularly for a pitcher who already has one Tommy John procedure on his record.

These injuries and a lack of performance overall has made the Cubs’ bullpen into a weak link on the roster, though not much has gone right for the team over what has been a disastrous six weeks of baseball.  Beginning the season strong with a 24-17 record, Chicago has stumbled to a 13-23 mark over its last 39 games.  The NL’s parity has meant that the Cubs are still just two games out of a wild card slot despite a 37-40 record, yet Chicago will need to regain momentum quickly before the team is perhaps forced into some hard decisions at the trade deadline.

Blue Jays Claim Jose Cuas Off Waivers From Cubs

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The Cubs announced this afternoon that right-hander Jose Cuas has been claimed off waivers by the Blue Jays. Cuas was designated for assignment earlier this week in order to make room for righty Ethan Roberts on the club’s 40-man roster. The move puts Toronto’s 40-man roster at capacity.

Cuas, who will celebrate his 30th birthday later this week, made his big league debut with the Royals back in 2022 but was traded to the Cubs in exchange for outfielder Nelson Velazquez at the trade deadline last summer. He was a decent middle reliever for the Royals during his time in Kansas City, pitching to a 4.08 ERA (106 ERA+) with a 4.41 FIP in 79 1/3 innings of work for the club between the 2022 and ’23 campaigns. Unfortunately for both Cuas and the Cubs, the wheels began to come off for the sidearming righty upon his arrival in Chicago last year.

While his 3.04 ERA in 27 appearances for the Cubs down the stretch last summer was actually fairly strong, it came with concerning peripherals. His strikeout rate dipped from a strong 27.1% during his time with the Royals last year to a worrisome 19% in Chicago, while his walk rate simultaneously ballooned from a manageable 10% figure in Kansas City all the way up to 14% for the north siders. While a strong 55.6% groundball rate allowed Cuas to keep the damage to a minimum, he was no longer looking the part of a quality middle relief option.

Things took an even worse turn for Cuas in 2024 when his groundball rate plummeted to just 31%. While his walk rate dropped down to a career-best 9.2% figure, that came at least in part as a result of opposing hitters teeing off Cuas pitches with a 14.3% barrel rate and a 45.2% Hard Hit rate. While Cuas’s strikeout rate crept back up to a more acceptable 21.5% this year, that still wasn’t enough to stop the right-hander from surrendering 12 runs (11 earned) in 13 1/3 innings of work for the Cubs this year, leaving him with a 7.43 ERA and a 5.99 FIP.

Despite those deep struggles during his time in Chicago, it’s not hard to see why the Blue Jays would want to take a chance on the righty. After all, when Cuas’s arsenal is working well, his sinker/slider combo allows him to strike out around a quarter of the batters he faces while keeping walks to a clip of around 10% and eliciting grounders on around half of his batted balls. That’s certainly the profile of a valuable pitcher, even though Cuas has not been able to put it all together at the big league level yet during his career.

Even if he isn’t able to reach that potential, the right-hander still provides the Blue Jays with an optionable relief arm on a minimum salary who can be shuttled from Triple-A to the majors as necessary. That’s a valuable commodity for any bullpen, but especially for a Blue Jays bullpen that has posted a league-worst 4.83 FIP to this point in the 2024 campaign. Should the club turn to Cuas at some point, he’d likely factor into the middle relief mix alongside the likes of Zach Pop and Genesis Cabrera.

Marlins Acquire Ali Sanchez From Cubs

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The Cubs traded minor league catcher Ali Sánchez to the Marlins, tweets Tommy Birch of the Des Moines Register. According to the MLB.com transaction tracker, Miami sent cash in return.

Sánchez was not on Chicago’s 40-man roster. He won’t immediately take a spot on Miami’s. He’ll head to Triple-A Jacksonville for the time being, joining his third organization of the season in the process. The Venezuela native signed a somewhat surprising big league contract with the Pirates last offseason. Pittsburgh outrighted him off the 40-man roster at the end of Spring Training, sending him back to free agency. Sánchez inked a non-roster deal with the Cubs a week into the season and had been playing for Triple-A Iowa.

He appeared in 41 games, hitting .240/.338/.388 in 148 trips to the plate. That’s a step down from the .311/.375/.492 batting line he’d posted with Arizona’s Triple-A affiliate in 2023. Reno, where the D-Backs’ top farm team plays, is one of the sport’s most favorable hitting environments. Sánchez, a typically light hitter, connected on 11 homers in 67 games there. He hit three longballs with Iowa.

While he doesn’t bring much power to the table, Sánchez has decent contact skills. He has drawn walks in 12.2% of his plate appearances on the season against an 18.9% strikeout rate. He’s generally regarded as a capable defender, though he only cut down six of 46 attempted basestealers with Iowa.

The Cubs have gotten almost nothing out of their catching duo of Miguel Amaya and Yan Gomes. They nevertheless opted against bringing Sánchez up. Chicago signed Tomás Nido to a major league contract while designating Gomes for assignment this morning.

Miami is one of the only teams whose catchers have been less productive than the Amaya/Gomes pairing. Marlins catchers — almost exclusively Christian Bethancourt and Nick Fortes — have hit an MLB-worst .155/.192/.237 over 232 plate appearances. Miami isn’t going to expend much to upgrade the position in a lost season. Sánchez could play his way into an MLB look with a productive showing in Jacksonville. Bethancourt, Fortes and Jhonny Pereda are the catchers on the 40-man roster.

Cubs Sign Tomas Nido, Designate Yan Gomes For Assignment

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10:20am: The Cubs have made the moves official.

9:55am: The Cubs are making a change behind the plate, signing veteran catcher Tomas Nido to a big league contract and designating Yan Gomes for assignment, as first reported by Bleacher Nation’s Michael Cerami. Nido, an ACES client, was released by the Mets on Monday after being designated for assignment last week. The Mets are on the hook for the majority of this year’s $2.1MM salary. The Cubs will only owe Nido the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the roster.

The 30-year-old Nido inked a two-year, $3.7MM contract prior to the 2023 season, buying out his final two seasons of arbitration eligibility. He was outrighted off the 40-man roster last season following a dismal .125/.153/.125 start through 61 plate appearances but chose to accept a Triple-A assignment due to the fact that electing free agency would’ve required him to forfeit the remainder of the guaranteed money on his contract.

Nido was selected back to the big leagues this season when Francisco Alvarez hit the injured list with a thumb injury that required surgery. During his most recent stint with the Mets, Nido surpassed five years of MLB service time, which allowed him to reject his latest outright assignment in favor of free agency while still retaining the remainder of his salary. He batted .229/.261/.361 through 90 plate appearances with the Mets this season.

That level of production is par for the course for Nido, a career .214/.251/.313 hitter in 895 trips to the plate at the big league level. Offense has never been the focal point of Nido’s game, however. He’s an high-end defensive backstop who draws plus grades for his framing and pitch-blocking, coupling those skills with a career 21% caught-stealing rate that’s right in line with this year’s league average.

Even Nido’s lackluster 2024 output at the plate or his similarly uninspiring career batting line would be an upgrade over what the 36-year-old Gomes has mustered this season. Gomes was near league-average at the plate just last season (.267/.315/.408, 10 homers, 95 wRC+) but has cratered with a career-worst .157/.179/.242 batting line in 96 plate appearances this season. Gomes fanned in just 18% of his plate appearances with the 2022-23 Cubs and entered 2024 with a career 23.1% mark in the majors, but he’s whiffed a massive 36 times this season (37.5%).

Like Nido, Gomes has a strong defensive reputation, but the numbers don’t bear that out this year. He’s thwarted just three of the 24 runners who’ve attempted to steal against him (12.5%) — well shy of his excellent 32% career mark. The Brazilian-born backstop’s once-premium framing numbers are below-average for a second straight season, meanwhile, and Statcast also pegs him below-average at blocking pitches in the dirt in 2024.

As is the case with Nido, Gomes is playing out the final season of a guaranteed contract. Chicago signed him to a two-year, $13MM pact in the 2021-22 offseason. Gomes’ performance last year made it a straightforward call for the team to exercise a $6MM club option (a net $5MM decision, given the option’s $1MM buyout). Even Gomes’ detractors couldn’t have reasonably predicted a decline of this magnitude, however. Gomes’ struggles are a major reason that Chicago backstops have been the third-worst in all of baseball at the plate, leading only the White Sox and Marlins in that regard.

The Cubs will still be on the hook for the remainder of Gomes’ $6MM salary once he inevitably becomes a free agent. (No team is going to trade for or claim what’s left on the contract). Once he’s released, Gomes will be free to sign with any club. A new team would only owe him the league minimum for any time spent on the big league roster. That sum would be subtracted from what the Cubs owe him through season’s end.

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