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Cafardo’s Latest: Quintana, Holland, Napoli, Arroyo

By | at November 19, 2016 2:54pm CDT

In his latest Boston Globe column, Nick Cafardo lists 15 big-earning players who could be potential trade candidates this winter “with a little creativity” from their teams and any interested trade partners.  Cafardo also has some hot stove buzz…

  • One general manager says that Jose Quintana‘s name didn’t come up in talks with the White Sox, leading the GM “to believe they’d like to hold on to him. [Chris] Sale was mentioned, [Carlos] Rodon was mentioned and all the others, but not Quintana.”  Reports have the White Sox ready to listen on any player who isn’t under long-term control, though Quintana technically doesn’t fit this description.  He is under contract through 2019 with a club option for 2020, and given how Quintana has pitched during his career, that early-career extension has become a bargain for the Sox.  Rodon’s inclusion is interesting, as the highly-touted lefty can’t hit free agency until after the 2021 season, though just because Rodon’s name may have been mentioned in discussions obviously isn’t any sign that Chicago is exploring trades.
  • A team’s senior advisor chimed in on Greg Holland‘s recent showcase for scouts, saying that while Holland’s velocity was down, it was “good enough where you could see that if he rehabs properly he’ll get there.  There was nothing there to excite you but nothing there to discourage you either.”  Despite this rather unexciting review, Holland drew plenty of interest, as 18 teams reportedly sent personnel to watch Holland throw after missing all of 2016 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery.  The senior advisor isn’t sure Holland will be able to find a two-year/$20-22MM offer that has been “floated” in connection with him.  MLBTR predicted slightly less (two years, $18MM) for the reliever, though as evidenced by the Brett Cecil signing earlier today, there could be some surprising numbers on the relief market this offseason.
  • Mike Napoli has been getting some interest from National League teams as a full-time first baseman.  This is a obviously a good sign for Napoli’s market, as it shows that NL teams aren’t necessarily scared away by his age (35) or increased DH usage last season in Cleveland.  Napoli’s defensive metrics at first were below average in 2016, after years of delivering very solid glovework throughout his career.
  • Bronson Arroyo is three or four weeks away from knowing if a stem-cell procedure from Dr. James Andrews has properly healed his elbow.  If the veteran righty is finally healthy, Arroyo is eager to continue his career.  “I definitely want to keep going. Baseball is in my DNA,” Arroyo said.  “I think when you’re in my position, you have to give it every chance, seeking everything medically available to see if you can keep doing it. The stem-cell injection was the last hope. If it doesn’t work, I know I’ve given it every chance.”  Arroyo, who turns 40 in February, was a model of durability throughout his long career but he hasn’t pitched in the bigs since June 2014 due to both Tommy John surgery and then shoulder problems.
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White Sox Willing To Trade Any Player With Less Than Four Years Of Control

By | at November 19, 2016 2:12pm CDT

The White Sox are telling teams that they’re willing to trade any player on their roster who is under team control for less than four years, ESPN’s Buster Olney reports (subscription required).  Chicago GM Rick Hahn has already spoken of wanting to pursue longer-term assets this offseason, while earlier reports have suggested that Hahn has been open to trading almost any of his current players.

The list of White Sox players with less than four years of club control remaining includes Melky Cabrera, Todd Frazier, Brett Lawrie, David Robertson, Jose Abreu, James Shields, Zach Putnam, Avisail Garcia, Miguel Gonzalez, Jake Petricka, Dan Jennings and ace Chris Sale (whose deal contains club options for 2018 and 2019 that look like no-brainers to be exercised).  Jose Quintana, Adam Eaton and Nate Jones are all technically under contract for less than four years as well, though their deals all contain club options for the 2020 season and, for Eaton and Jones, options for 2021.

It remains to be seen if the Sox are planning to embark on a full-scale rebuild, though as Olney notes, other teams are becoming and more convinced that Sale will be traded this winter.  “And once you trade him, why would you stop there?” one evaluator asks Olney rhetorically.  As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes pointed out in his preview of the White Sox offseason, however, the franchise has previously tried to both rebuild and reload at the same time, and the Sox could try to do so again rather than start from scratch.

There’s obviously quite a bit of talent in the aforementioned list of players, so Chicago could look to just deal one or two of those names to free up some payroll space for further moves.  (The arbitration-eligible likes of Lawrie or Garcia could also be non-tendered to save some more cash.)  Building on what the anonymous evaluator told Olney, it would only be clear that the White Sox are embarking on a major roster shuffle if a building block piece like Sale, Quintana or Eaton is traded.

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Outrighted: Smith, Centeno, Brennan

By and | at November 19, 2016 8:08am CDT

As teams finalized their 40-man rosters yesterday in advance of the Rule 5 draft, here are a few more outrights…

  • The Athletics outrighted right-hander Josh Smith, as per a team announcement.  Oakland just claimed Smith off waivers from the Reds earlier this month.  The 29-year-old righty has 92 1/3 career big league innings under his belt, posting a 5.46 ERA, 7.6 K/9 and 1.66 K/BB rate for the Reds over the last two seasons as both a starter and reliever.
  • The Twins placed catcher Juan Centeno on outright waivers as part of their roster moves today, the club announced.  Centeno hit a respectable .261/.312/.392 over 192 PA with Minnesota last season, easily the most playing time he has received during his four years in the bigs.
  • The White Sox have outrighted right-hander Brandon Brennan to Triple-A, Dan Hayes of CSN Chicago reports on Twitter.  A fourth-round pick for the Sox in the 2012 draft, Brennan has a 4.94 ERA, 1.90 K/BB rate and 6.5 K/9 over 347 2/3 pro innings, none above the Double-A level.
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Players Added To The 40-Man

By and | at November 18, 2016 9:40pm CDT

We’ll use this post to keep track of the players being added to their teams’ respective 40-man rosters today, which is the deadline to protect players from the Rule 5 draft. Players must be added to the big league roster within either four years (if they were 19 or older at the time of their original signing) or five years (if 18 or younger) of their signing year in order to be shielded from selection.

MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo took a look at some of the biggest names who face roster decisions, though most of those won’t be much in question. At the fringes, teams must also consider the major league readiness of the player, since that factors heavily into whether they’ll be taken and kept. Any drafting team, of course, must keep a player on its active MLB roster for the full season (with certain exceptions relating to the DL) in order for their control rights to vest. Adding a player to the 40-man too early can have its own risks, because it limits flexibility and could require a team to expose that player to waivers if a need arises. With 26-man rosters reportedly under consideration, the Rule 5 draft could be quite intriguing this year, and that may bleed into today’s decisions as well.

Below is a division-by-division rundown of the names that were added to each team’s 40-man roster (plus the various waiver claims that spawned from teams trying to outright players to protect Rule 5-eligible prospects). We won’t delve into each player’s background, but if you’re looking to a little more about the names that were added, I’d highly recommend this tremendous, in-depth examination of each team’s additions by Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper. If you want to see how the moves look in the context of a team’s roster, head over to Roster Resource for your club’s depth chart.

Onto the moves…

American League West

American League Central

American League East

National League West

National League Central

National League East

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Market Chatter: Rays, Gray, Yankees, Sale, Rodriguez

By | at November 17, 2016 9:46pm CDT

There’s an expectation among rival executives that the Rays will trade one of either Drew Smyly or Chris Archer this winter, writes ESPN’s Buster Olney in his latest blog (Insider subscription required and recommended). Other teams are also expecting that Tampa Bay will trade closer Alex Colome, who moved into the ninth inning following an injury to Brad Boxberger and delivered a brilliant breakout season in the Rays’ bullpen, though we haven’t really heard any specific clubs tied to him. Smyly is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $6.9MM this winter in his latest trip through the arbitration process, while Colome is not yet eligible for arbitration (though he’s building a nice case for himself when he does reach that point). Because Colome hasn’t reached arbitration and comes with an additional four years of club control, the Rays should be able to ask for a sizable haul. Of course, those same factors also mean that Tampa Bay doesn’t need to feel an urgency to move Colome, as he’d earn scarcely over the league minimum in 2017. The 27-year-old posted a pristine 1.91 ERA and averaged 11.3 K/9 against 2.4 BB/9 to go along with a 47.1 percent ground-ball rate in 56 2/3 innings.

A bit more on some other possible trade and free agent scenarios around the league…

  • The Athletics are “actively listening to offers” for right-hander Sonny Gray, per Olney. Gray’s name has been a mainstay in trade rumors over the past year and a half, but with a $3.7MM salary projection for next season and Oakland looks more likely to move veteran pieces, there’s a better chance this winter that he’s moved than there has been in previous trade seasons. Of course, teams may be wary of Gray’s 5.69 ERA and time on the disabled list this past season, and the A’s aren’t likely to consider selling Gray at a discounted price, so agreeing on price with interested teams certainly presents some hurdles. Gray is still just 27 and is controlled for another three seasons.
  • With Brian McCann shipped out today, the Yankees appear to be turning their attention to additions to the roster. Pitching is at the top of the list, with Rich Hill a possible target, Olney tweets. And he adds that slugger Carlos Beltran remains a target. As James Wagner of the New York Times reports (Twitter links), GM Brian Cashman says that the organization is looking to add bats. While it isn’t committed to spending big, he says he expects to continue discussions with top-of-the-market hitter Yoenis Cespedes. “I’m sure we’ll talk again,” said Cashman of his contact with Cespedes’s reps. “Now that we have more flexibility, it gives us more choices.”
  • Though the Braves have been connected to several top young starters, their focus is on trying to work a deal with the White Sox for Chris Sale, according to David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. It’s still unclear just how hard Atlanta will push to pry him loose, and certainly Chicago isn’t in a position where it needs to move its affordable, excellent, and still-youthful ace. And as O’Brien notes, the Braves have signaled previously that they aren’t interested in emptying their farm to move toward contention — though there may be an added willingness to give up some premium assets in this case, as would certainly be necessary to get something done.
  • The Blue Jays are looking into infielder/outfielder Sean Rodriguez, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca reports. It seems that Toronto would like to add a right-handed-hitting piece with some defensive versatility, with Rodriguez joining Steve Pearce as plausible targets. The idea would be to utilize such a player as a platoon complement to first baseman Justin Smoak (a switch-hitter who struggles against lefties) and in the corner outfield.
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Market Notes: Braves, Nats, Sale, S-Rod, Hernandez, Santana, Rosario

By | at November 16, 2016 9:43pm CDT

The Braves are “aggressively swapping offers” with other organizations for starters, according to ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (Twitter link). Atlanta has been rumored to have inquired on basically all of the quality, young, controllable arms that might be available, and it seems that the organization is serious about pursuing a major strike. One such pitcher, of course, is White Sox lefty Chris Sale, who has also reportedly been asked about by the Braves’ division rivals to the north. Adding a starting pitcher isn’t exactly a priority for the Nationals, at least from the perspective of need, but Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post argues that the team ought to push hard for Sale. By Svrluga’s reckoning, the team has the prospect arsenal needed to get something done; after another postseason disappointment, he says, adding another ace could get the team over the hump.

Here are a few more notes on the developing market:

  • There are five teams in on free agent utilityman Sean Rodriguez, reports Chris Cotillo of SB Nation (via Twitter). One is the Pirates, who have said they’re interested in a reunion, and the Dodgers are also intrigued, per Robert Murray of Fan Rag. MLBTR rated Rodriguez as the 35th-best free agent available after his productive 2016 campaign.
  • We’ve heard discussion about the possibility of the Phillies dealing Cesar Hernandez, particularly after the team acquired second-base-capable Howie Kendrick, and CSNPhilly.com’s Corey Seidman takes a look at his possible trade market. His productive 2016 and cheap control make him an interesting option for other organizations, though the question remains whether he can sustain his breakout. Seidman discusses some players who could hold appeal to Philadelphia, suggesting that the club would be most interested in a major league return.
  • Lefty Johan Santana may not be done yet, Cotillo adds on Twitter. He’s planning on winter ball in Venezuela in hopes that he can land an opportunity with a major league organization. This certainly isn’t the first time that Santana, now 37, has had a crack at a return, but his prior efforts have all been thwarted by injury. The two-time Cy Young winner has not seen major league action since 2012.
  • Free agent slugger Wilin Rosario is still hopeful of landing with a major league club after spending a year in Korea, Cotillo tweets, but he’s not committed to playing in North America. A return to the KBO could also be a consideration, per the report. Rosario, 27, may no longer be an option behind the dish, but his power should intrigue regardless. Over 532 plate appearances last year with the Hanwha Eagles, he posted a .321/.367/.593 batting line with 33 long balls, though of course the KBO is a notably friendly league for hitters.
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Rosenthal’s Latest: Sale, Archer, Jays, Halos, McCann, Catchers

By | at November 15, 2016 11:11pm CDT

Talk about White Sox ace Chris Sale figures to be persistent this winter whether he gets moved or not, and FOX’s Ken Rosenthal has the latest installment in his newest notes column. Rosenthal echoes yesterday’s report from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale that the Nationals are interested in Sale and adds more context to the matter. Per Rosenthal, the Nats would shut talks down if the Sox were insistent on Trea Turner‘s inclusion in the deal, but they have numerous other high-end prospects — the Nats are prospect-rich with names like Victor Robles, Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez, among others — that could entice Chicago. While the Nats have more glaring needs (catcher, center field), they’ve expressed interest in both Sale and Chris Archer of the Rays (and other Tampa Bay starters) with an eye toward further deepening their rotation to maximize their postseason chances. Rosenthal reminds that the Nats appeared to have a stacked rotation even when they signed Max Scherzer, and the NL East is continually improving, putting more pressure on GM Mike Rizzo and his staff.

A few highlights from the column, which I’d recommend checking out in its entirety…

  • The Blue Jays are still seeking a left-handed-hitting outfielder, and Rosenthal lists Josh Reddick and Dexter Fowler as possibilities, though Fowler would need to be willing to move to a corner to accommodate Kevin Pillar‘s borderline superhuman glove. They’re also in the market for a right-handed platoon partner for Justin Smoak at first base, with Steve Pearce standing out as a possible target. The need for a platoon partner is somewhat counterintuitive since Smoak is a switch-hitter, however Smoak hit just .209/.284/.337 as a right-handed hitter last year and has hit lefties at a woeful .223/.279/.378 clip over the past three seasons.
  • Rosenthal lists the Angels‘ Tyler Skaggs and Matt Shoemaker as potential under-the-radar trade candidates, speculating that the team could potentially move someone such as Skaggs (as part of a trade package) if it meant landing a premium second baseman like Minnesota’s Brian Dozier. That appears to be a speculative link at this juncture, but Dozier’s name will be a popular one this winter given the Twins‘ last place finish and obvious need for pitching. The 29-year-old slugged 42 home runs for Minnesota in 2016 and is under club control for a total of $15MM through the 2018 season.
  • The Yankees and Astros are “at an impasse” in trade talks over Brian McCann, though Houston can certainly turn elsewhere in its hunt for catching help and general offensive improvements. The ‘Stros were in on Kendrys Morales before he agreed to a his deal with Toronto, per Rosenthal.
  • Free agent catchers could come off the board quickly, with Jason Castro and defensive stalwart Jeff Mathis among those drawing strong early interest. Rosenthal points out that last year, Chris Iannetta, Alex Avila, Brayan Pena and Geovany Soto all signed prior to Dec. 1. Castro’s market in particular appears to be fast-moving, as he’s already reported to be weighing offers from three American League clubs and could receive a fourth from Minnesota this week.
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Trade Chatter: Sale, Astros, Votto, Watson, Marlins

By and | at November 15, 2016 10:03pm CDT

Though the Braves already added R.A. Dickey and Bartolo Colon this winter, it seems they aren’t quite done shopping for starters. They have joined the division-rival Nationals, and probably a sizable portion of the rest of baseball, in reaching out to the White Sox about lefty Chris Sale, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag. Atlanta is among the organizations “trying hardest” to pry Sale loose from Chicago, per the report, with some around the league believing that he could change hands this winter. Of course, yesterday’s report regarding the Nats also suggested that the South Siders have yet to engage in serious chatter as of yet, and the Braves are looking at a variety of options, so it’s a bit soon to dwell heavily on the Sale/Braves connection. Atlanta has also inquired with the Rays on Chris Archer and the Athletics on Sonny Gray, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman notes.

A few more notes on some trade situations from around the league…

  • Astros GM Jeff Luhnow told reporters today, including MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart, that he still hopes to have one or two transactions completed before the Winter Meetings (video link). Luhnow said as much when leaving the GM Meetings last week, but the Houston GM offered indications today that the club has narrowed its focus. “I think instead of working on 12 things right now, we’re working on four, which gives us a little bit more focus,” said Luhnow. “…We’re in a position where we did all of our homework ahead of time, we know what resources we have, we know what needs we need to fill, and we can be a little bit more aggressive this year than we have in years past.” Asked about his potential areas of focus, Luhnow spoke generally about needing “some pitching help” and “a bat or two,” though he did say that his team is willing to act as quickly as a trade partner or agent will allow.
  • Reds GM Dick Williams continues to downplay any notion that Joey Votto could be traded, as MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon writes. Speaking at last week’s GM Meetings, Williams said that he “certainly [hasn’t] had any discussions with [Votto]” about waiving his no-trade clause, per Sheldon. Williams said that the constant speculation is understandable for a player of Votto’s caliber but believes the first baseman will be at the center of the team’s lineup throughout the rebuild and beyond. As we’ve pointed out here at MLBTR many times, Votto also has a full no-trade clause and has gone on record as saying he has no desire to leave Cincinnati. Sheldon offers another quote from Votto, from 2015: “I just absolutely love playing here. I really like where I live. … I like the location of the ballpark and the fans and the clubhouse and the uniform and the number on my back — all the littlest things that people take for granted are very comfortable to me and something I look forward to. I don’t think of myself as anything other than a Cincinnati Red. It’s one of the really cool things about having a no-trade clause.”
  • The Mariners may not feel comfortable spending enough to compete with the Blue Jays for the services of free-agent lefty Brett Cecil, which could lead them to the trade market, writes Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune. Per Dutton, Pirates left-hander Tony Watson is one name to monitor as Seattle looks for a late-inning lefty, noting that Watson is “believed to be available.” The 31-year-old stepped into Pittsburgh’s closer role last year following the trade of Mark Melancon and performed well, as he’s done in virtually every role he’s been used over the past several seasons. Dating back to 2012. Watson boasts a 2.40 ERA with 8.0 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 and a 45 percent ground-ball rate in 345 1/3 innings. He’s lefties to a downright pitiful .190/.253/.273 slash but also more than held his own against righties, yielding a collective .214/.280/.346 batting line in that time. Watson has one more year of club control and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $5.9MM in his final trip through the arbitration process.
  • Though the Marlins are exploring the trade market for rotation help, they’re not willing to part with either Christian Yelich or J.T. Realmuto, per MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro. There have also been no indications that they’d consider moving Giancarlo Stanton, Frisaro continues, although with a full no-trade clause and the largest contract in history, that could potentially be a moot point anyhow. Marcell Ozuna and Adeiny Hechavarria are the most oft-mentioned names the Fish could look to move, though Hechavarria’s anemic bat offsets a great deal of his defensive talent.
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East Notes: Holland, Encarnacion, Sale, Reddick, Bruce

By | at November 14, 2016 11:42pm CDT

The Red Sox are one of the most aggressive pursuers of free agent reliever Greg Holland, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports. But there are multiple other organizations that have keen interest in the veteran hurler, who is looking to return following Tommy John surgery. Boston, of course, wouldn’t be able to offer Holland much of a path toward a closing job; presumably, he’d be expected to serve in a set-up capacity in front of Craig Kimbrel. Whether or not other organizations would hand Holland the ninth — or, perhaps, at least provide a chance for him to get there at some point — isn’t known, and it’s also not clear to what extent that really matters in his decisionmaking process.

  • There are numerous opportunities for the Red Sox to consider this winter — with free agent Edwin Encarnacion, perhaps, being the most intriguing. Bradford reports that the organization has yet to engage Encarnacion’s camp in earnest, however, and certainly the public signals given by president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski suggest that he’s not a top target. That could be posturing, or a nod to the still-uncertain CBA talks, but Bradford argues that Boston ought to be in on Encarnacion.
  • The Nationals have spoken to the White Sox about ace lefty Chris Sale, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. But Chicago has not undertaken serious talks with any clubs about Sale to this point, he adds. While it’s certainly reasonable to think that the Nats would be interested in knowing what it might take to add the talented southpaw, it seems at this point there’s no reason to view the chatter as more than due diligence.
  • The Blue Jays, meanwhile, are looking for a lefty outfield bat and are exploring options in both trade and free agency, Jim Bowden of ESPN.com said in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (Twitter link). Josh Reddick is one possible target, per the report, and Toronto has also chatted with the Mets about Jay Bruce — who, perhaps, would be shopped if New York were to add a certain, significant free agent.
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Jose Abreu Opts Into Arbitration

By | at November 14, 2016 3:51pm CDT

White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu has opted out of the remaining three years and $34MM on his guaranteed contract and will enter arbitration for his remaining three years of club control, reports Dan Hayes of CSN Chicago (via Twitter). Abreu originally signed a six-year, $68MM contract with the ChiSox, but that contract allowed him to enter the arbitration process whenever he was deemed eligible. With three years of big league service time now under his belt, this offseason marks the earliest juncture at which he’d have been able to do so.

Abreu earned $10MM this past season under the guaranteed phase of his six-year deal and would’ve earned $10.5MM in 2017, $11.5MM in 2018 and $12MM in 2019 had he not opted out. However, as MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently explored, the arbitration process figures to be more lucrative for the Cuban-born slugger. Arbitration raises are based on previous salaries, but Abreu’s $10MM 2016 salary isn’t technically the figure from which he’ll receive a raise, as with contracts such as the one on which Abreu currently plays, the signing bonus must be annualized and factored in as well. Abreu’s deal contained a $10MM signing bonus, so adding one sixth of that sum ($1.66MM) to last year’s salary gives him an arbitration base of toughly $11.66MM. (Abreu’s agents could try to argue that the bonus should be pro-rated over three years, as he’s opting out of three guaranteed years, but it’s unclear if they’d be successful in that endeavor; at the very least $11.66MM is the floor on which his raise will be determined.)

As Tim also noted in that exploration of Abreu’s unique contract situation, though, Abreu also can’t be given a standard raise on top of that base. Abreu’s numbers to date compare favorably to Giancarlo Stanton‘s first three years, but Stanton earned $6.5MM in his first trip through arbitration. Abreu is already north of that and wouldn’t be boosted an additional $6.5MM on top of his current salary, but he also isn’t in line for a cut to that mark either. More realistically, he’ll gain some form of token raise atop his “on-paper” salary of $11.66MM, which prompted Tim to project a $12MM salary for him in the event of opting into arbitration. (For further explanation on the fine details of Abreu’s case, I’d recommend checking out Tim’s piece in its entirety, as it does a fine job highlighting the complexities associated with this type of Major League contract.)

Abreu, 30 in January, hit .293/.353/.468 this season and swatted 25 homers. His offense has taken a step back in each of his seasons since his brilliant Rookie of the Year campaign in 2014, but he remains a considerably above average bat and should do well from this point forth in arbitration, as whatever price the Sox and Abreu’s camp determine this winter will be the baseline for his second trip through arbitration. Of course, it’s also not entirely certain that Abreu will even remain with the White Sox long term. While GM Rick Hahn hasn’t outright said that he’s planning to orchestrate a fire sale, the South Siders do seem more apt than ever to listen to trade pitches on their top veteran players, and Abreu certainly fits that bill. Hahn spoke earlier this winter of “focusing on longer-term benefits,” and interested parties could subsequently make the Sox strong offers for stars such as Abreu, Chris Sale and/or Jose Quintana. Conversely, the Sox could simply be opportunistic in listening to offers on shorter-term commodities like Todd Frazier and Melky Cabrera, though certainly neither veteran comes with the type of value that Chicago’s more controllable assets carry.

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