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White Sox Sign Paul DeJong

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The White Sox announced Tuesday that they’ve signed free agent shortstop Paul DeJong to a one-year deal worth a guaranteed $1.75MM. (Chicago is one of the few MLB organizations that publicly discloses financial terms.) DeJong, a client of the C.L. Rocks Corporation, can reportedly earn another $250K via incentives.

Signing the 30-year-old DeJong is a clear buy-low move for the Sox, as he has struggled badly in recent seasons. He had an incredible debut with the Cardinals in 2017, hitting 25 home runs in his first 108 major league games. His 28% strikeout rate and 4.7% walk rate were not great, but his overall line of .285/.325/.532 translated to a wRC+ of 123.

The Cards made a bet that DeJong could be their shortstop for many years to come, signing him to a six-year, $26MM extension prior to 2018. Unfortunately for them, DeJong’s production slid downhill from the moment that deal was signed. His wRC+ dropped to 103 in 2018, then 101, 87, 84 and 54 through 2022.

In 2023, he seemed to get back on track somewhat. Through 81 games for the Cards, he hit 13 home runs and slashed .233/.297/.412 for a wRC+ of 94. Though he was still below the league average hitter, that kind of production for a strong defensive shortstop was still welcome, and an obvious boost from his previous nosedive.

However, the Cards flipped him to the Blue Jays prior to the deadline, which was the start of another frustrating run for him. The Jays had recently lost Bo Bichette to the injured list and tried to use DeJong to fill the gap, but the move to Toronto didn’t go well, to put it mildly. DeJong hit .068/.068/.068 in his 44 plate appearances, striking out in 40.9% of them without drawing a walk. Once Bichette was reinstated from the injured list, the Jays designated him for assignment and eventually released him. The Giants took a shot on him but he continued to struggle, hitting .184/.180/.286 for that club, striking out at a 32% clip and not drawing a walk for them either. He was released again near the end of September.

The White Sox just moved on from a different shortstop who also endured an awful season in 2023. Tim Anderson had been an above-average hitter from 2019 to 2022 but hit just one home run this past year while batting .245/.286/.296 overall. His wRC+ of 60 was the worst such number from any qualified hitter for the year. The Sox could have retained Anderson via a $14MM buyout and hoped for a bounceback but decided to move on, declining that option.

A couple of weeks ago, general manager Chris Getz said the club would be looking for a veteran with good defense to take over for Anderson, ideally on a short-term deal to bridge the gap to prospect Colson Montgomery. DeJong certainly fits the bill there, having racked up 41 Defensive Runs Saved, four Outs Above Average and earned a grade of 30.5 from Ultimate Zone Rating in his career. He has shown some offensive potential in the past but the recent results have been grisly.

Perhaps the club will only keep DeJong around until the job is wrested away from him, as Montgomery is considered one of the top prospects in the league. He’s currently listed #14 overall at Baseball America, #12 at FanGraphs and #17 at MLB Pipeline, while midseason updates saw him get the #21 spot from Keith Law of The Athletic and #2 from ESPN. Montgomery hit .287/.455/.484 in the minors this year, posting matching strikeout and walk rates of 19%. He finished the year at Double-A and then went to the Arizona Fall League for a bit more action.

Montgomery is still young, turning 22 in February, and has yet to reach Triple-A. But it’s possible he’s not too far away and DeJong may just be a placeholder. The Sox don’t have an obvious solution at second base either, so perhaps DeJong could move across the bag if he is in decent form, but it’s also possible the club could move on if the guarantee isn’t especially burdensome.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the White Sox and DeJong were nearing a major league deal. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com first confirmed a deal was in place. Bob Nightengale of USA Today specified it was a one-year contract, and Heyman first reported the terms — which were subsequently publicly confirmed by the club.

Latest On Red Sox’s Pitching Targets

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The Red Sox are known to be seeking top-of-the-rotation starting pitching. A pair of high-end starters, Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray, have come off the board. There wasn’t any indication the Sox were deeply involved in the bidding for either right-hander. Sean McAdam of MassLive writes that the Sox have been seeking to add a starter via trade before turning to free agency.

At the same time, one notable trade candidate doesn’t appear to be strongly on their radar. McAdam reports that the Red Sox have not been actively involved in discussions with the White Sox regarding Dylan Cease. The right-hander has been mentioned as a target for the Dodgers and Braves and has surely drawn unreported interest from other teams seeking rotation help.

That Boston doesn’t seem as involved in Cease discussions is a bit of a surprise. He still has two seasons of arbitration control; MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for an $8.8MM salary, a bargain price for a pitcher with his upside. Alongside Corbin Burnes, Shane Bieber and Tyler Glasnow (the latter of whom seems unlikely to land within the AL East if the Rays trade him), Cease has been the subject of plenty of trade speculation.

The 27-year-old (28 next month) isn’t coming off a great season. Cease allowed 4.58 earned runs per nine, more than two runs above the 2.20 ERA he posted in 2022. A spike in hard contact and a slight dip in strikeout rate surely contributed to that less inspiring run prevention. Yet even with that downturn in whiffs, Cease still fanned an above-average 27.2% of batters faced behind an excellent 13.6% swinging strike percentage. His fastball averaged just under 96 MPH, while his slider remained a swing-and-miss offering.

While the Sox may be focused on trade targets aside from Cease, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow and his front office are surely keeping an eye on the top hurlers on the open market. They’ve been tied to NPB star Yoshinobu Yamamoto and left-hander Jordan Montgomery. McAdam indicates the Sox also expressed some interest in Blake Snell when they met with the defending NL Cy Young winner’s representatives at the Boras Corporation during the GM Meetings.

Snell rode a laughably dominant second half to the second Cy Young of his career. He finished the year with an MLB-best 2.25 ERA across 180 innings. Snell led the majors with 99 walks but allowed only 5.8 hits per nine innings, the lowest mark for any qualified starter. That’s in large part thanks to a stellar 31.5% strikeout rate. MLBTR predicted Snell to land $200MM over seven seasons. He has also been linked to the Dodgers, Giants and incumbent Padres. McAdam suggests that Snell, a Seattle-area native, may prefer to sign with a West Coast team.

If that is indeed the case, that wouldn’t bode especially well for the Red Sox’s chances. The market’s other top southpaw, Montgomery, has a tie to the Northeast. While Montgomery is a South Carolina native, McAdam and Chris Cotillo of MassLive note that he is spending the winter in Boston while his wife McKenzie begins a medical residency at a hospital in the area. It’s not clear if that’ll have any impact on his free agent preferences.

White Sox, Mark Payton Agree To Minor League Contract

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The White Sox have signed outfielder Mark Payton to a minor league contract, according to the transaction tracker at MLB.com. It’s the second such stint for the Illinois native.

Payton also spent the 2022 campaign with the Sox. He appeared in eight big league contests, spending the remainder of the year at Triple-A Charlotte. The University of Texas product had a strong year with the Knights, hitting .293/.369/.539 with 25 home runs over 119 games. While Payton initially re-signed with the Sox for the 2023 season, he was granted his release to pursue a contract with the Seibu Lions in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball in December.

The left-handed hitter struggled in his crack at Japanese ball. Payton hit only .215/.266/.327 with five longballs in 225 trips to the plate. He spent some time in the minors and was not retained for 2024. That set the stage for a return to the White Sox.

Payton has 40 games of major league experience split between 2020-22. He’s a .296/.370/.515 hitter over six seasons at the Triple-A level. Payton can handle all three outfield positions but is probably best suited for left field. He’s likely to open next year, his age-32 campaign, back in Charlotte.

Braves, White Sox Have Discussed Dylan Cease Trade

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The Braves are among the teams in ongoing trade talks with the White Sox regarding right-hander Dylan Cease, reports USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. Atlanta had been connected to a pair of notable free agent starters, Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray, but Nola re-signed in Philadelphia last week and Gray is reportedly wrapping up a deal with the Cardinals today.

With their ostensible top two free-agent targets off the board, it’s not a surprise to see the Braves being more prominently connected to the trade market. Cease’s White Sox are generally open for business on the heels of a catastrophic 2023 season that led to the firing of longtime baseball ops executives Rick Hahn and Kenny Williams. Assistant GM Chris Getz has since been elevated to the GM’s chair, and Getz plainly stated following the season that there are no untouchables on his roster. Cease, with two remaining years of club control, is among the likelier and most appealing trade candidates Getz has at his disposal.

Cease, 28 next month, was the American League Cy Young runner-up in 2022 but had a down season in 2023 — one of the myriad factors which contributed to the disastrous season on Chicago’s south side. His 2022 campaign featured 184 frames of 2.20 ERA ball with a dominant 30.4% strikeout rate against a 10.4% walk rate, but that version of Cease appeared far too infrequently for the Sox’s liking in 2023. This past season saw the righty post a pedestrian 4.58 earned run average in 177 innings, showing diminished fastball velocity (95.8 mph, down from 96.9 mph a year prior) and a lesser strikeout rate (27.3%).

[Related: Looking for a Match in a Dylan Cease Trade]

Cease made a nominal improvement in his walk rate (10.1%), but virtually every other aspect of his profile backed up in ’23. His opponents’ average exit velocity and hard-hit rates exploded, jumping from 86.8 mph and 31.2% in 2022 to 90 mph and 41.5% in 2023. Both his swinging-strike and opponents’ chase rate dropped sharply as well, and Cease allowed an average of 0.97 homers per nine frames after yielding 0.76 HR/9 in 2022. He had some obvious struggles due to the poor defense behind him, with a career-high .330 average on balls in play (up from .260 the previous year), but that alone is not the driving force behind his struggles. Some of the BABIP spike was likely of his own doing anyhow; the uptick in hard contact he yielded certainly contributed to more balls finding their way through an already porous defense.

Although Cease’s 2023 season wasn’t a particularly strong year in terms of run-prevention, he still boasts well above-average velocity and bat-missing capabilities. Fielding-independent metrics (3.72 FIP, 4.10 SIERA) felt he was better than that lackluster ERA, even if he wasn’t as sharp as he was in 2022. He’s also proven himself a durable and reliable arm, as he’s made a full slate of starts in each of the past four seasons. Add in a reasonable $8.8MM projected salary from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, and it’s abundantly clear that Cease still possesses plenty of trade value. Consider that Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson, a pair of innings eaters in their late 30s who don’t have the same upside as Cease’s 2022 campaign, signed for $11MM and $12MM, respectively, with the Cardinals. Cease’s projected $8.8MM salary is a clear bargain — particularly with another year of arbitration set to follow.

As things stand, the Atlanta rotation projects to consist of Spencer Strider, Max Fried, Charlie Morton and Bryce Elder, with a fifth-spot competition headlined by AJ Smith-Shawver, Dylan Dodd and (eventually) a returning Ian Anderson, who underwent Tommy John surgery early in the 2023 season. The Braves have prioritized adding a playoff-caliber arm to that group, both to safeguard against injury for the top of the rotation and also to protect against the potential departure of Fried, who’ll be a free agent following the season. Cease would accomplish both of those goals.

In many ways, a trade is the more sensible route for the Braves to go in terms of their rotation need anyhow. Atlanta’s projected payroll is already just shy of $207MM, per Roster Resource, but their luxury-tax obligations are far more consequential. The Braves project at around $241MM of luxury considerations, which already has them north of the $237MM luxury tax barrier. This is the second straight year they’ll be paying the luxury tax, so they’ll be penalized at a 30% rate for the first $20MM by which they exceed the tax and a 42% rate for the next $20MM. Signing a free agent like Nola or Gray would’ve come with around $7-9MM in luxury penalties this year — on top of the player’s actual salary. And, since the Braves are set up to be third-time payors in 2024, they’d be facing even steeper tax percentages next season.

Cease, of course, will come with those same penalties, but a 30% tax on his projected $8.8MM salary would bring the total outlay for acquiring him (speaking strictly financially) to around $11.5MM — a far more palatable price point than the free-agent market has to offer. Atlanta would also have the offseason to explore a possible extension with Cease — an Atlanta-area native (Milton, Ga.). The Braves have had plenty of success both acquiring and extending players with local ties, be it through the draft or through trades.

The Braves’ farm system has been stripped down by previous trades to acquire names like Matt Olson, Sean Murphy and several relievers (Joe Jimenez, Pierce Johnson, Aaron Bummer, Raisel Iglesias). They still have some appealing young talent, particularly in the upper minors or even some young big leaguers who’ve already gotten their feet wet. Smith-Shawver, Dodd and infielder Vaughn Grissom, for instance, would all hold appeal to the White Sox (and to other potential trade partners with pitching to peddle). The Sox and Braves already lined up on one swap this offseason, with Chicago sending the aforementioned lefty reliever Bummer to Atlanta.

Atlanta figures to face steep competition with regard to Cease, who offers one of the most tantalizing blends of raw talent, affordable salary and remaining club control on this offseason’s trade market. MLBTR ranked Cease sixth on our original list of the offseason’s top 25 trade candidates.

The Dodgers are already known to be interested, and just about any other team in need of starting pitching figures to check in — particularly those that may not want to spend top-of-the-market dollars to augment their starting staffs in free agency. That group could include the Reds, Pirates, D-backs, Padres and Orioles, to list a speculative few.

Looking For A Match In An Eloy Jimenez Trade

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The White Sox appear likely to be among the most active teams on the trade market this offseason. On the heels of a 101-loss campaign that spurred a change in front office leadership, freshly-minted GM Chris Getz has made clear that the club is operating with no untouchables this offseason, a stance the club backed up by dealing left-hander Aaron Bummer to the Braves last week in a six-player deal. While right-hander Dylan Cease figures to garner plenty of attention as a potential trade chip, he was far from the only player hailing from the south side of Chicago to land on MLBTR’s list of the top 25 offseason trade candidates. Cease clocked in at #6 on that list, but just a few spots lower at #12 is slugger Eloy Jimenez, who the club acquired alongside Cease in the deal that sent Jose Quintana to the north side back in 2017.

Getz has made no secret of the fact that Jimenez is available this offseason, noting publicly that teams are interested in his services while adding that “it just has to make sense for both sides” in order for a deal to come together this winter. While Jimenez once looked to be a potential franchise cornerstone in left field, his star has dimmed in recent years due to injuries and under-performance. Since the start of the 2021 season, Jimenez has appeared in just 259 games between multiple hamstring issues and an appendectomy. That translates to just 53.3% of the Chicago’s regular season contests over that span.

When Jimenez has managed to take the field, he’s alternated flashes of greatness with relative mediocrity; though he posted strong numbers in the shortened 2020 campaign and in his 84-game 2022 season, with wRC+ figures of 138 and 143 respectively, Jimenez’s performance in both 2021 and 2023 was far more pedestrian. 2023, in particular, saw Jimenez slash just .272/.317/.441 (105 wRC+) with 18 homers in 489 trips to the plate. While those numbers are decent, they’re a far cry from what you’d expect from a player best suited as a full-time DH who is guaranteed $16MM in 2024 between a $13MM salary and a $3MM buyout on a 2024 club option.

In spite of Jimenez’s flaws, however, there’s plenty of reason for rival clubs to have interest in his services. After all, the 2022 season showed what a threat he can be at the plate when he’s right, as he hit .295 and crushed 16 homers in just 327 plate appearances all while walking at a respectable 8.6% clip. If a club manages to get Jimenez back on track, they’d have a All Star caliber slugger under relatively affordable team control for three seasons; Jimenez’s contract includes a pair of club options for the 2024 and 2025 campaigns, valued at $16.5MM and $18.5MM respectively. Jimenez also has youth on his side, as he’ll play next season at age-27 after celebrating his birthday next week.

So, which teams could make sense as potential partners for the White Sox in a Jimenez trade? The Royals, Twins, Guardians, and Tigers are all fairly easy to eliminate due to the rarity of in-division deals involving players of Jimenez’s magnitude. The Rockies, A’s, Nationals, and Pirates are all fairly unlikely to compete in 2024, while the Yankees, Giants and Phillies are all relatively set at DH heading into next season. The Padres, Rays, Reds, Cardinals and Orioles all figure to focus more on adding pitching rather than stacking up additional bats this offseason. The Blue Jays, Cubs and Astros all appear more likely to target left-handed additions to the lineup than a righty slugger like Jimenez, to say nothing of the questionable optics of dealing Jimenez back to the north side. A look at each of the other ten teams…

Best Fits:

  • Diamondbacks: The reigning NL champions figure to attempt to improve upon their 84-win campaign in 2023, and have already added Eugenio Suarez at the hot corner in pursuit of that goal. While Suarez and Christian Walker give them some much-needed thump from the right-hand side, Arizona still has a clear vacancy at DH that Jimenez would be a solid option to fill. Meanwhile, the Snakes are deep in young, affordable players like Jake McCarthy and Dominic Fletcher who could be of interest to a White Sox club looking for upgrades in virtually all areas of the roster.
  • Mariners: Seattle’s lineup took a hit in the aforementioned Suarez deal and the addition of Jimenez, who could slide into the DH slot vacated by the recently non-tendered Mike Ford, could help to return some thump to the club’s lineup. While Jimenez profiles best as a DH, he could also theoretically chip in on occasion in left field, where the Mariners currently lack a permanent solution and figure to rely on the likes of Cade Marlowe, Sam Haggerty, and Dylan Moore. While Seattle’s young arms are likely too valuable to deal for Jimenez, it’s possible the White Sox could target a post-hype youngster like Taylor Trammell in a deal with the Mariners.
  • Marlins: Miami is among the best fits for Jimenez, as evidenced by their interest in his services at this year’s trade deadline. With righty slugger Jorge Soler having departed the club in favor of free agency, the addition of Jimenez would fill the void left by Soler at a price point not far above the $12MM AAV Soler would’ve been on the books for in 2024 had he not opted out of his deal. In exchange, the Sox could look to add one of Miami’s many young infielders without a clear path to playing time such as Jacob Amaya, Jordan Groshans, or Xavier Edwards.

Next Tier Down:

  • Angels: While the Angels are surely going to make every effort to retain franchise face Shohei Ohtani, the expectation around the league is that he will depart for another club this offseason. Should that reality come to pass, Jimenez could make sense as a replacement DH should the club have hopes of contending in 2024 without Ohtani on the team. That being said, the Halos already largely emptied out their farm system over the summer in a failed bid to reach the postseason while Ohtani was still under contract, and it’s unclear if they would be willing to part with even more young talent in hopes of contending in 2024.
  • Brewers: Much like the Marlins, the Brewers were connected to Jimenez at this year’s trade deadline, and it’s easy to see why: Brewers hitters posted a wRC+ of just 92 in 2023, including a pathetic 79 wRC+ from the club’s DH slot. Jimenez would make for a massive improvement on that, and could make sense for Milwaukee if they look to continue contending in 2024. That being said, the club has already lost Craig Counsell and Brandon Woodruff from their 2023 squad and could deal more talent before the offseason is done. Given the uncertainty surrounding the club, it’s anyone’s guess if Jimenez and his $13MM salary in 2024 still fit into Milwaukee’s plans.
  • Mets: With the Mets seemingly facing an uncertain future of their own, they’re hardly an obvious pick for Jimenez’s services this offseason. That being said, Jimenez seems unlikely to require an exorbitant prospect cost in trade given his recent struggles, and the Mets could be among the teams best positioned to take a gamble on him. Jimenez’s salary would hardly be a needle-mover for the big-spending Mets, and Jimenez could be a stalwart slugger at DH for two more seasons if things go well in 2024, providing some protection for the club should Pete Alonso depart in free agency next offseason.
  • Red Sox: Boston’s primary DH this season was Justin Turner, who returned to free agency earlier this month. With a hole at DH and an offense that posted a wRC+ of just 99 in 2023, it’s easy to see how Jimenez could be a fit for Boston. That being said, the Red Sox are seemingly more focused on pitching additions than adding to their hitting corps, and left fielder Masataka Yoshida’s rough defensive metrics in left field could indicate that sliding him into the DH slot and giving outfield reps to youngsters like Wilyer Abreu and Ceddanne Rafaela could be the club’s ideal solution.

Longer Shots:

  • Braves: While the Braves have a clear need for an additional bat in their left field/DH mix following the departure of Eddie Rosario, both Jimenez and incumbent slugger Marcell Ozuna are best served as full-timers in the DH slot. What’s more, the Braves appear focused on improving their pitching staff, without much clarity on their available payroll space. There figure to be cheaper options available on the outfield market than Jimenez who may better fit Atlanta’s needs, even if they likely lack the upside of Jimenez.
  • Dodgers: The Dodgers certainly make sense as a potential suitor for Jimenez on paper given their vacancy at DH, but it’s an open secret that the club’s top priority this offseason is Shohei Ohtani. What’s more, the appears to be mutual interest in a reunion with DH-only slugger J.D. Martinez in the event that Ohtani lands elsewhere, meaning that a deal for Jimenez would likely be a Plan C for the Dodgers, barring a willingness to give him an everyday role in left field.
  • Rangers: The reigning World Series champions have been extremely aggressive in recent offseason as they looked to upgrade their club, and without a surefire DH option for the 2024 season it would be foolish to entirely count them out from swinging a deal for Jimenez. That being said, a reunion with Mitch Garver could make more sense for the Rangers if they want a regular player at DH, while the presence of super-utility youngster Ezequiel Duran could allow them to use the DH slot to afford regular players in both the infield and outfield partial rest days. Either option could be preferable for the Rangers to committing significant cash to Jimenez, particularly given their pitching needs and the potential revenue uncertainty facing the club next season.

White Sox Sign Justin Anderson To Minor League Deal

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The White Sox have signed right-hander Justin Anderson to a minor league deal, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. He has been assigned to Triple-A Charlotte for now but could get an invitation to major league Spring Training.

Anderson, 31, appeared in 111 big league games for the Angels over 2018 and 2019. He tossed 102 1/3 innings with a 4.75 earned run average. He struck out a strong 27.7% of batters faced but also gave out walks at a 15.7% clip. Despite the control issues, he nonetheless served a leverage role for the Halos, racking up five saves and 33 holds.

Since then, however, injuries have sent him out into the proverbial wilderness. In 2020, he suffered an oblique strain and then a torn ligament in his pitching elbow, the latter eventually leading to Tommy John surgery in July of 2020. He was non-tendered by the Angels at the end of that year and signed a two-year minor league deal with the Rangers, with that club hoping for a post-surgery bounceback in 2022. That didn’t work out, with Anderson landing on the minor league IL in April of 2022 after just three appearances and never returning.

In 2023, Anderson finally showed a bit of progress. He secured a minor league deal with the Royals in June and was able to make 24 appearances over the final few months of the season, logging 36 2/3 innings of work. Anderson posted an ERA of 6.87 on the year overall but struck out 35.5% of batters faced and finished strong, with an ERA of 3.44 in his final 11 appearances and 0.63 in his last eight. Any pitcher can look better with that kind of arbitrary selectivity, but since Anderson was dealing with injuries for so long, it would be fair to expect him to take some time getting into a groove.

The White Sox will be hoping that was indeed the case and that Anderson can be in better form in 2024 after shaking off some rust this year. If he is able to stay healthy and effective, he still has a full slate of options and less than three years of service time. If he’s added to the roster at any point, he could be moved between the majors and minors without being exposed to waivers and could be retained for future seasons via arbitration.

Dodgers Interested In Trading For Dylan Cease

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The Dodgers and White Sox have discussed the possibility of Dylan Cease heading to Los Angeles, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.  There isn’t any indication that a trade is particularly close, or whether or not this was a due diligence inquiry from the Dodgers given the club’s obvious need for pitching.

While the White Sox aren’t exactly rebuilding, new GM Chris Getz has directly said that he is open to trade offers as the Sox look for ways to address their many needs.  Thursday’s trade of Aaron Bummer to the Braves saw Chicago pick up at least starting middle infielder (Nicky Lopez) and perhaps two (Michael Soroka, Jared Shuster) new arms for the starting rotation, bringing some depth onto a depleted roster.

Apart from trading Luis Robert Jr., dealing Cease would be the biggest move the White Sox could make to quickly add a lot more talent to the organization.  MLBTR’s Nick Deeds recently explored Cease’s trade market, citing 14 teams that make sense as trade suitors given Cease’s past quality and his relatively inexpensive price tag over two remaining arbitration-eligible seasons.  Cease is projected for an $8.8MM salary in 2024, so even if a big performance next year raises his 2025 salary significantly, that still adds up to two seasons of front-of-the-rotation pitching for around $22MM.

Over three full seasons as a starter, Cease was solid in 2021, outstanding in 2022, and then fairly ordinary last year, struggling to a 4.58 ERA over 177 innings.  A 4.10 SIERA is a little more flattering, as Cease’s .330 BABIP and 69.4% strand rate certainly contributed to his issues, plus it is fair to wonder if he was affected by the overall malaise of the Southsiders’ disastrous 101-loss season.  Cease’s subpar walk rates and his tendency (apart from in 2022) to surrender hard contact are red flags, but there’s still a lot to like about the right-hander as he enters his age-28 season.

From the Dodgers’ perspective, Cease represents a much surer thing than most every other pitcher in their projected 2024 rotation.  Walker Buehler returns from a 2023 season entirely lost to Tommy John surgery, Dustin May will miss at least the first half of 2024 due to flexor tendon surgery, and swingman Ryan Yarbrough is the only other experienced arm within a pitching mix that includes a lot of rookies and second-year pitchers.  Bobby Miller has claim on one rotation spot behind Buehler, but Ryan Pepiot, Emmet Sheehan, Michael Grove and Gavin Stone are all varying degrees of question marks.

Trading from this pitching depth might be a risk for Los Angeles, given all the uncertainty about their rotation.  However, on paper, this is still a good crop of young arms that would be attractive to other teams, particularly a club like the White Sox in need of controllable pitching.  Speculatively, one would imagine Miller is off-limits for the Dodgers in trade talks, but moving one or even two of the other pitchers might be feasible for a Los Angeles club that clearly wants to win now.  Or, L.A. might try to tempt the Sox with some of its many quality position players in the minors — top prospects Dalton Rushing and Diego Cartaya might have particular appeal to Chicago since the Sox are very thin in the catching ranks.

Looking For A Match In A Dylan Cease Trade

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After a brutal 2023 season that saw the White Sox lose 101 games and finish fourth in a weak AL Central division, change is in the air on Chicago’s south side. Newly-minted GM Chris Getz made clear earlier this month that the club is operating with no untouchables on the roster. While there’s plenty of players on the White Sox roster who could garner interest in trade, including center fielder Luis Robert Jr. and DH Eloy Jimenez, perhaps the most discussed among those names is right-hander Dylan Cease, who the club reportedly fielded calls on ahead of this year’s trade deadline.

While no deal came together back then, it’s Cease is certainly still an attractive potential trade candidate for clubs in need of a rotation upgrade. While Cease struggled badly over the last two months of the 2023 as his ERA ballooned to 4.58 on the season, the underlying metrics surrounding Cease’s performance provide more reason for optimism. After all, his 27.3% strikeout rate this season left him tied with Mariners ace Luis Castillo for the eighth-highest figure in the majors this year among qualified starters, just ahead of front-of-the-rotation starters like Gerrit Cole and Zack Wheeler.

While his 10.1% walk rate certainly left something to be desired, Cease’s strand rate of just 69.4% can’t be ignored as a contributing factor to his struggles in 2023. Only four pitchers (Jordan Lyles, Aaron Nola, Lance Lynn, and Miles Mikolas) had a higher percentage of their batters come around to score than Cease this season. If the sequencing of Cease’s baserunners had produced a strand rate more in line with his career mark of 74.6%, it’s reasonable to think Cease would have been far more productive in 2023, and could be in line for better fortunes in 2024.

Even accounting for his difficult 2023 season, Cease has been one of the league’s most impressive starters over the past three seasons. Since the start of the 2021 season, Cease leads all pitchers with 97 games started and clocks in at 15th with 526 2/3 innings of work over that time. Between that volume of work and Cease’s strong production (3.54 ERA, 3.40 FIP), only seven pitchers have produced more fWAR than Cease over the past three seasons: Wheeler, Cole, Nola, Kevin Gausman, Corbin Burnes, Logan Webb, and Sandy Alcantara. In addition to being a part of that elite company, Cease won’t be a free agent until after the 2025 campaign and is projected for a salary of just $8.8MM by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz next season, making him an affordable addition for even small-market clubs looking to add a front-of-the-rotation arm.

Given Cease’s affordability and multiple years of control, he figures to be an attractive alternative to an expensive multi-year deal for a front-end arm like Nola, Blake Snell, or Jordan Montgomery this offseason, particularly for clubs with significant budgetary restrictions. He’s certainly not a fit for every club, however. The A’s, Royals, Angels, Rockies and Nationals are all unlikely to contend during Cease’s remaining window of control, while some up-and-coming clubs like the Marlins, Guardians, Tigers, and Pirates have far more pressing needs on their roster that seem likely to take priority over adding a win-soon, front-end arm like Cease.

The Blue Jays, Mariners, and Brewers, meanwhile, are all teams that contended in 2023 but are much more in need of lineup upgrades than an arm to bolster the rotation, making them likely to pursue upgrades elsewhere. While teams like the Cubs, Twins, and Mets are all decent fits, the unlikelihood of a White Sox blockbuster with a division or crosstown rival (particularly the same one they acquired Cease from in 2017) and the Mets’ uncertain timeline for competitiveness make them less likely to land Cease as well, particularly in what could be such a crowded field of potential suitors. That still leaves 14 clubs that could at least plausibly have considerable interest in Cease’s services this offseason. A look at each of those teams…

Best Fits:

  • Braves: The Braves and White Sox have already gotten together on one fairly significant trade this offseason, and could make plenty of sense to do so again. With Kyle Wright out for the 2024 season and subsequently shipped off to Kansas City, the Braves are looking somewhat thin in the rotation with little certainty behind a front three of Max Fried, Spencer Strider, and Charlie Morton. An acquisition of Cease could take pressure off Morton as he enters his age-40 campaign as well as youngsters like Bryce Elder and AJ Smith-Shawver. Meanwhile, young infielder Vaughn Grissom is blocked by Ozzie Albies and Orlando Arcia up the middle in Atlanta but could immediately step into an everyday role at second base for the White Sox in 2024.
  • Cardinals: The Cardinals have made it clear they’re on the hunt for starting pitching this offseason, and swinging a deal for Cease could allow them to add a quality arm at a price that wouldn’t take them out of the running for an additional arm in free agency like Nola or Sonny Gray. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have a bevy of big-league ready talent blocked at the major league level they could deal from, ranging from catching prospect Ivan Herrera to reclamation outfielder Dylan Carlson.
  • Diamondbacks: The reigning NL champs could certainly do with an upgrade to their rotation in 2024, which features little certainty beyond Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. Brandon Pfaadt showed flashes of untapped potential as the club’s third starter throughout the playoffs, but after posting a 5.72 ERA in 19 regular season appearances seems best suited to a back-end role until he can prove himself further. Though the Diamondbacks have shown interest in top-of-the-market NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the club has given out just one nine-figure contract in its history. Cease would offer Arizona a far more affordable option to pair with Gallen at the top of the rotation, and could offer a young bat like outfielder Alek Thomas as a potential centerpiece for the deal.
  • Dodgers: The Dodgers are in desperate need of rotation reinforcements with sophomore right-hander Bobby Miller and Walker Buehler in his first season post-Tommy John surgery as the club’s most reliable arms for Opening Day 2022. Though the Dodgers are among the league’s most free-spending clubs, their rumored pursuit of Shohei Ohtani and need to fill multiple spots in the starting rotation could make a trade for Cease an attractive option to fill out a spot toward the front of the club’s rotation. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have several young arms that could interest the White Sox as part of a return package, including Ryan Pepiot and Emmet Sheehan.
  • Orioles: After a 101-win campaign in 2023, the Orioles figure to be more aggressive this offseason than they have in the recent past, when they’ve largely limited their additions to short-term deals for complementary players like Kyle Gibson and Adam Frazier. That being said, the trade market could be a better route for Baltimore to seek improvements than free agency; after all, club officials have avoided making commitments to substantial payroll increases and the team has a deep crop of big league ready position players who may be best utilized as trade capital, ranging from arb-eligible role players like Ramon Urias to former top prospects like Jordan Westburg. Meanwhile, the addition of Cease would give the club a quality front-end starter to pencil in alongside Grayson Rodriguez and Kyle Bradish for the club’s hypothetical 2024 playoff rotation.
  • Rays: The Rays are facing an all-time high payroll in 2024 and are in desperate need of rotation upgrades following long-term injuries to Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen, and Shane McClanahan in 2023. Cease would be an affordable option the club could bolster their rotation with, giving them additional flexibility to explore trades of right-hander Tyler Glasnow while also potentially clearing some of the club’s positional logjam, where the likes of Curtis Mead could find themselves without much playing time in 2024.
  • Reds: The Reds haven’t been shy about their need for starting pitching help this offseason, and Cease makes sense for a club that regularly runs a payroll in the bottom half of the league as a potential impact arm who wouldn’t break the bank. Much like the Orioles, the Reds are deep in young infield options, with second baseman Jonathan India a prime candidate for a trade himself, to say nothing of blocked prospects like Edwin Arroyo.

Next Tier Down:

  • Astros: While the Astros could certainly use pitching help this offseason after being forced to rely on rookies like Hunter Brown and JP France for much of the 2023 season, it’s fair to wonder if the club has the appetite for another pitching blockbuster just a few months after swinging a deal with the Mets to bring Justin Verlander back to Houston at the trade deadline earlier this year. What’s more, the Astros are relatively lacking in the young, big league-ready talent that the Sox might look to acquire in a Cease deal.
  • Giants: The Giants are certainly in need of rotation upgrades after essentially only using Webb and veteran righty Alex Cobb as regular starting pitchers for most of the 2023 campaign. That being said, the Giants certainly have money to spend after last offseason’s failed bids for Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa. With plenty of holes to fill on the roster, San Francisco may be better suited for an aggressive pursuit of free agent starters than giving up near-term youngsters in a deal for Cease.
  • Padres: San Diego’s rumored budgetary issues this offseason are well-documented at this point, and it’s possible the club could need to clear more payroll before taking on even Cease’s relatively modest $8.8MM projected salary. That being said, president of baseball operations AJ Preller is well known for his aggressiveness on the trade market, and a deal for Cease would certainly be more cost-effective than, for example, re-signing Snell to a nine-figure contract.
  • Phillies: The Phillies are in need of a top-of-the-rotation arm after the departure of Nola in free agency, but re-signing him appears to be the club’s top priority this offseason. That makes Philadelphia attempting to swing a deal for Cease fairly unlikely, particularly given the club’s relative lack of big-league ready prospect talent with whom they could attempt to make a trade.
  • Rangers: The reigning AL champs could certainly stand to upgrade their rotation after losing Montgomery to free agency, but much like their division rivals in Houston, the Rangers just swung a blockbuster to bring Max Scherzer to Arlington this past summer. What’s more, the club may be expecting Jacob deGrom back from Tommy John surgery sometime next year and already has a plausible five-man rotation of Scherzer, Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney and Dane Dunning for Opening Day 2024.
  • Red Sox: The Red Sox are clearly looking for a front-end starter to add to their rotation, and the clubs famously got together on a blockbuster deal during the 2016-17 offseason that sent Chris Sale to Boston. Despite that history, however, the Red Sox could be better off adding a long-term contract via free agency than spending prospect capital to acquire just two seasons of Cease, particularly given the club’s last-place finish in the AL East this past season.
  • Yankees: Much like their archrival Red Sox, the Yankees are clearly in the market for pitching upgrades this offseason. The Yankees are also a club that could certainly benefit from a shorter-term arrangement like the one Cease would provide, given the club’s several megadeals for players like Judge, Cole, Carlos Rodon, and Giancarlo Stanton. That being said, the club is seemingly reluctant to deal young, big league ready talent like Oswald Peraza, though it’s at least feasible a deal could come together surrounding prospects further from the majors like Spencer Jones and Chase Hampton.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: 11/17/23

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Tonight marks the deadline for teams to tender contracts to players who are eligible for arbitration. This evening should also see a handful of arb-eligible players agree to terms with their clubs to avoid a hearing.

These so-called “pre-tender deals” usually, although not always, involve players who were borderline non-tender candidates. Rather than run the risk of being cut loose, they can look to sign in the lead-up to the deadline. Those salaries often come in a little below projections, since these players tend to have less leverage because of the uncertainty about whether they’ll be offered a contract at all.

Under the 2022 collective bargaining agreement, players who sign to avoid an arbitration hearing are guaranteed full termination pay. That’s a change from prior CBAs, when teams could release an arb-eligible player before the season began and would only owe a prorated portion of the contract. This was done to incentivize teams and players to get deals done without going to a hearing.

All salary projections referenced are courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. This post will be updated throughout the night as deals are reported.

Latest Moves

  • The Orioles agreed to deals with outfielders Sam Hilliard and Ryan McKenna, reliever Keegan Akin and shortstop Jorge Mateo, as announced by the team. Mateo will make $2.7MM, as first reported by Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (X link). Jon Heyman of the New York Post has terms (on X) for Akin and Hilliard: $825K for the former, $800K for the latter.
  • Giants outfielder Mike Yastrzemski has a deal for $7.9MM, Heyman reports. That’s a little above his $7.3MM projection. Yastrzemski has one additional arbitration year remaining.
  • Reliever Yency Almonte and the Dodgers have agreed to a $1.9MM salary, per Heyman. That matches his projection.
  • Lefty reliever Ryan Borucki agreed to a contract with the Pirates, the team announced. Feinsand reports it as a $1.6MM deal. He was projected at $1.3MM.
  • The Rockies have a deal with lefty reliever Jalen Beeks, Heyman reports. He’ll make $1.675MM. Recently claimed off waivers from Tampa Bay, Beeks was projected at $1.8MM.
  • The Cubs announced a deal with third baseman Patrick Wisdom. Jesse Rogers of ESPN reports that the power-hitting infielder will make $2.725MM. That’s narrowly above a $2.6MM projection.
  • Outfielder DJ Stewart agreed to a deal with the Mets, per a club announcement. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports it’ll be for $1.38MM. Stewart had been projected at $1.5MM as an early qualifier via Super Two.
  • The Phillies announced deals with right-hander Dylan Covey, catcher Garrett Stubbs and outfielder Jake Cave. Terms were not disclosed.
  • The White Sox announced agreement with reliever Matt Foster on a deal for $750K, narrowly above the league minimum. The right-hander underwent Tommy John surgery in April.

Earlier Tonight

  • The Royals announced agreement with lefty reliever Josh Taylor. He’ll make $1.1MM, tweets Anne Rogers of MLB.com. Acquired from the Red Sox last winter, Taylor allowed an 8.15 ERA over 17 2/3 innings before undergoing season-ending back surgery. He was projected for a $1.3MM salary.
  • The Athletics announced today that they have agreed to one-year deals with infielders Miguel Andujar and Abraham Toro. The club claimed Andujar off waivers from Pittsburgh earlier this month and swung a deal to acquire Toro from the Brewers earlier this week. Andujar hit .250/.300/.476 in 90 trips to the plate in the majors this year while Toro appeared in just nine games at the big league level but slashed .444/.524/.778 in that extremely limited action. Andujar will make $1.7MM (Heyman link); Toro is set for a $1.275MM salary.
  • The Giants have a deal with outfielder Austin Slater for $4MM, reports Craig Mish of SportsGrid (X link). That’s a little north of his $3.6MM projected salary. Slater has over five years of service time and will be a free agent next offseason. The right-handed hitter is coming off a .270/.348/.400 showing over 89 games. He’s a career .285/.374/.463 batter against left-handed pitching but owns a .227/.314/.333 mark versus righties.

Eloy Jimenez Receiving Trade Interest

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The White Sox have been getting some calls about slugger Eloy Jimenez, GM Chris Getz told ESPN’s Jesse Rogers (X link) and other reporters today.  There isn’t a sense that a deal might be close or that the Sox are truly inclined to shop Jimenez, but “teams are interested,” Getz said.  “It just has to make sense for both sides.”

Getz’s meeting with the media (including USA Today’s Bob Nightengale) also included a reiteration of the GM’s openness for talks, as he stated “I’ve made it very clear that the White Sox are willing to listen in on any of our players.”  This follows Getz’s statement from earlier this month, when he noted that there “are no untouchables” on the Chicago roster.  We saw some evidence of this last night, when the Sox dealt Aaron Bummer to the Braves for a package of five players.

Moving Jimenez would be another matter altogether, given his higher profile as a would-be franchise cornerstone.  Signed to a six-year, $43MM deal before he’d even made his MLB debut, Jimenez has hit .275/.324/.487 with 89 homers over 1777 plate appearances in five seasons.  With a 118 career wRC+, Jimenez has certainly been good, and he has shown some flashes of greatness at the plate with particularly good numbers in 2019 and 2022.

However, Jimenez’s production has been limited by injuries, and his 122 games and 504 PA from his 2019 rookie season remain his career high for playing time.  The White Sox have given Jimenez an increasingly large share of DH time over the last two years in an attempt to keep him healthy, and this might’ve worked to a limited degree in 2023, when he made 489 PA over 120 games.  Jimenez still missed over a month of the season, but that was mostly due to a one-off issue of an appendectomy.  Still, Jimenez didn’t hit particularly well, with a modest 105 wRC+ from 18 homers and a .272/.317/.441 slash line over his 489 PA.

Because Jimenez debuted in the majors as a 22-year-old, he has still yet to reach his true prime years, as he turns 27 later this month.  The White Sox owe him $13MM in 2024 and then hold club options on his services for the following two seasons, with values of $16.5MM in 2025 and $18.5MM in 2026 (with $3MM buyouts on both options).  That makes him a nicely affordable player if he can ever stay healthy and extend his 143 wRC+ from his 327-PA 2022 season over the course of a full year.

These three years of control over Jimenez might not necessarily put him within Chicago’s timeline, however.  Despite Getz’s comments about the roster and the fact that the White Sox are reportedly planning to reduce payroll, there isn’t yet a sign that the Sox are actually going to rebuild in the traditional sense.  At the time of Getz’s hiring, owner Jerry Reinsdorf was adamant about wanting to deliver another winning team, so another retooling doesn’t appear to be in the works.

Moving Bummer allowed the ChiSox to address multiple roster holes, and a Jimenez trade could conceivably work the same fashion should Getz find a suitable offer on the table.  In some sense Jimenez’s value has been lowered by his lackluster 2023 season, yet it isn’t surprising that teams are interested considering his age, contractual control, and perhaps the sense that a change of scenery is needed for Jimenez to hit his potential ceiling.

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