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Homer Bailey To Undergo Tommy John Surgery

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Reds starter Homer Bailey will undergo Tommy John surgery, the club announced. Cincinnati expects him to return during the 2016 season, per the announcement.

Bailey had missed the tail end of last year after needing surgery to repair a torn flexor mass tendon in his right arm. The 2014 campaign was something of a disappointment even before that point. While Bailey was effective enough, he failed to build off of a strong 2013 and seemed to be settling in more as a sturdy option than a top-of-the-rotation arm.

Now, Bailey’s arm troubles have clouded even that downgraded status. He was able to make it back early this season, but was throwing his average fastball at about 3 mph less than he had been over the last two seasons. With only three strikeouts in 11 1/3 frames, things were already not looking up when Bailey hit the DL.

While Tommy John surgery is obviously far from a death knell to a player’s career, neither is it a minor event. In Bailey’s case, it is particularly concerning given that he already underwent one surgery and has already shown a velocity decline. Then there’s the fact that he will not be back until next summer at the earliest, meaning that Cincinnati will not see any on-field production for its investment during that time.

The real issue for the Reds, of course, relates to Bailey’s contract. While the deal’s first year basically ratified an already-inevitable arbitration salary, the rest represented new money that kept the righty from testing free agency. Cincinnati still owes Bailey $86MM over 2016 through 2019, which includes the buyout of a mutual option for 2020, and it is increasingly unclear whether the club will get anything close to the expected value for that sum.

 

Injury Notes: Medlen, Mesoraco, Bailey, Fernandez, Rendon, Janssen, Verlander, Nathan

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Injuries remain perhaps the largest driver of needs in the early part of the season — a topic that MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes and I explored in today’s podcast with respect to starting pitching. Let’s have a look at some key injury situations around the game:

  • Rehabbing Royals starter Kris Medlen is headed to extended Spring Training to begin throwing against live batters, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan reports. That leaves him on track for a rehab assignment in May. Kansas City has $8.5MM riding on the righty’s ability to return to form after his second Tommy John surgery.
  • The Reds are missing two key cogs in backstop Devin Mesoraco and righty Homer Bailey. As Michael Hunt reports for MLB.com, manager Bryan Price says that Mesoraco — still not on the DL despite a 17-game absence from his usual catching duties — is still not ready “to try it out just yet,” adding that Mesoraco is “coming along slowly.” There are longer-term concerns with regard to Bailey, of course, and surgery is said to be on the table. “We’re probably going to know in the next one-to-two days what our plans are with Homer,” Price said. “You spend a lot of time when you make a diagnosis, fact-finding and making sure everything you see is as it appears. That’s been the time consumer, making sure it is what we think it is and finding the best way to treat it.”
  • Marlins starter Jose Fernandez is working his way back from Tommy John surgery, of course, and recently faced hitters in a live BP session for the first time. You can check out the video of his outing, courtesy of FOX Sports Florida.
  • After a pause in his rehab, Nationals infielder Anthony Rendon is preparing for another Double-A appearance in the coming days, MLB.com’s Bill Ladson reports. The issue has not been with his knee, which caused him to hit the DL to start the year, but with tightness in his side. That’s good news for the club, obviously, as is the fact that reliever Casey Janssen appeared in an extended spring game. He is set to begin his own run up through the minors in short order, per Ladson.
  • Injured Tigers starter Justin Verlander is set for a third MRI on his right triceps area early next week, Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press reports (Twitter links). Meanwhile, reliever Joe Nathan underwent his Tommy John procedure yesterday, Fenech tweets, with Nathan saying that it went well. It figures to be a long road back for the 40-year-old, but indications are that he’ll try to return to the big leagues.

2016 Vesting Options Update

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Several notable players could see their 2016 statuses change depending on whether or not they unlock vesting options in their current contracts.  With the opening month of the 2015 season almost in the books, let’s check in on the progress each of these players are making towards those getting those options to vest…

  • Chase Utley: The veteran second baseman has a $15MM vesting option for 2016 that becomes guaranteed if he makes 500 plate appearances.  (If he doesn’t, it becomes a team option worth between $5MM-$11MM depending on how much time Utley spends on the DL, with a $2MM buyout.)  Utley has received 81 PA while playing in 21 of the Phillies’ first 22 games, so he is well on the way to having his option vest despite a very rough start — only a .398 OPS and two homers this season, thanks to an incredibly low .102 BABIP.  There is little chance the Phils would let Utley walk for nothing this winter, especially when they could obtain something for him in a trade this summer if Utley agrees to waive his no-trade clause.
  • Jonathan Papelbon: The Phillies closer’s 2016 vesting option is one of the reasons why he hasn’t yet been traded, as other teams have been wary about acquiring a reliever with such a potentially large price tag.  Papelbon’s $13MM vests if he finishes 55 games this season, or posts a combined 100 games finished between 2014-15.  The stopper finished 52 games last year and has seven finishes thus far in 2015, putting him on pace for that guaranteed salary next year.
  • David Ortiz: If Ortiz makes at least 425 PA and passes a physical after the season, Boston’s $10MM team option on his services for 2016 will become guaranteed at $11MM (or more, depending on how many plate appearances Ortiz makes).  Ortiz has only had less than 425 PA in two of the last 14 seasons, so barring any injury setbacks for Big Papi, this one seems like a safe bet to vest.
  • Joaquin Benoit: The Padres hold an $8MM team option on Benoit for 2016, but the righty can turn that into a guaranteed option if he finishes at least 55 games this season.  Benoit’s chances are pretty remote, as he was relegated to setup man duties after San Diego acquired Craig Kimbrel.
  • Marlon Byrd: His original two-year, $16MM deal with the Phillies included an $8MM club option for 2016 that becomes guaranteed if he reaches 600 PA this season, or a total of 1100 PA over 2014-15 with at least 550 PA this season.  Byrd received 637 PA last season and he has 74 PA over 20 games with the Reds in 2015.  He should continue to get regular playing time for Cincinnati though Byrd is off to a slow start — a .441 OPS with no walks and 24 strikeouts.
  • Santiago Casilla: The Giants righty signed a three-year, $15MM deal in the 2012-13 offseason that contained a vesting option, though little is known about the option’s value or specifics.
  • Nori Aoki: The Giants’ $5.5MM club option on Aoki for 2016 will become a mutual option if Aoki reaches 550 PA.  The outfielder is hitting well and his 102 PA currently leads the league, so he’s well ahead of the pace to vest his option.
  • Jonny Gomes: The Braves outfielder can guaranteed another year on his contract (at a $3MM salary) if he makes 325 PA, and he can unlock higher salaries at the 425 PA and 500 PA plateaus.  Gomes has thus far received 47 PA over 15 games, putting him in decent shape for at least the first level of his vesting option.

We already know that Cliff Lee won’t achieve the innings totals required for his 2016 option to vest.  The Phillies southpaw is attempting to recover from a torn left flexor tendon without undergoing surgery and is currently on the 60-day DL.  Dodgers reliever Brandon League is also recovering from a right shoulder injury and thus stands virtually no chance of reaching the games-finished totals required to allow his 2016 player option to vest.

Homer Bailey On DL With Potentially Serious Elbow Injury

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APRIL 29: The Reds have moved Bailey to the 60-day DL, per a club announcement.

APRIL 28: One alternative to surgery for Bailey is a platelet-rich plasma injection, writes Fay. Price mentioned the possibility when discussing Bailey’s status with reporters today. As Fay notes, right-hander Carlos Contreras, who was called up to the Majors to replace Bailey, avoided Tommy John surgery in 2010 by undergoing a PRP.

APRIL 27: Reds starter Homer Bailey was placed on the DL today with what the club is calling a right elbow ligament sprain. Manager Bryan Price indicated that the injury could be serious, as John Fay and C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer were among those to report (Twitter links).

Price did not offer a precise diagnosis or timetable, but did not express much optimism. “He certainly won’t be pitching here in the near future,” said Price. He added: “It’s messy and unbelievably unfortunate both for him as an individual and for our ball club.”

Bailey suffered a torn flexor mass tendon late last year, undergoing surgery in early September. The right-hander rehabbed and returned after missing just a few starts to open 2015, but it now seems that return may be short-lived.

In his two outings this year, Bailey lasted 11 1/3 innings but compiled just three strikeouts against four walks while permitting seven earned runs to cross the plate. An even more troubling trend from the early going is a marked velocity decline. Bailey had thrown his fastball at an average rate of just over 94 mph over each of the last two seasons, but was clocking a mean offering of just 91 mph in 2015.

The news is deeply concerning for a Cincinnati club that already has its share of short-term and long-term issues. Bailey was one of several pitchers nearing free agency when the team locked him up to a six-year, $105MM deal before last season.

Bailey earned that payday with two straight 200+ inning seasons, including a strong 2013 performance. He threw well enough last year, even if he did not continue to progress, before going down to injury.

All involved certainly hoped for a quick return to form this season, but that seems increasingly out of reach. Beyond the present season, the Reds are obligated to pay Bailey $86MM from 2016-19 (including the buyout on a 2020 mutual option) under the backloaded deal structure that was agreed to.

NL Central Notes: Brewers, Wainwright, Hamels, Cingrani

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There’s a belief in the industry that the 4-16 Brewers could begin selling off pieces in the near future if they don’t turn their season around, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Heyman hears that veteran right-handers Kyle Lohse and Matt Garza could both be in play. Lohse, 36, is a free agent at the end of the year and is owed $11MM in 2015. The 31-year-old Garza has quite a bit more remaining on his deal, as he’s in just the second year of a four-year contract. Garza is owed $12.5MM in 2015 and will earn that same sum in both 2016 and 2017 as well. His contract also contains a $13MM vesting option that becomes a $5MM club option if it does not vest.

Here’s more from the NL Central…

  • Cardinals GM John Mozeliak spoke with Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch about how the club will handle the loss of Adam Wainwright. While the short-term fix will be to rely on internal options, Mozeliak acknowledged that the bulk of innings the team expects from Wainwright might eventually lead him to look outside the organization. As Goold notes, a desire to limit the innings of young pitchers Carlos Martinez and Michael Wacha only further adds uncertainty to how the team will replace those innings. Goold notes that the team has spoken to the Phillies about Cole Hamels in the past but found the asking price unreasonable. Whatever route the team winds up taking to overcome this roadblock, Mozeliak has stated that he has the flexibility to add significant payroll this season if necessary, Goold reminds.
  • Reds skipper Bryan Price explained to Mark Sheldon of MLB.com why Tony Cingrani isn’t viewed as an option to step into the rotation even after a potentially season-ending injury to Homer Bailey. “I made the decision – I was involved, a big supporter of putting him in the bullpen – not because that’s what we needed for this club at the time,” said Price. “What I felt was it was where he was best suited coming off a year of a lot of injury and shoulder concerns and the limited development of his off-speed pitches.” Price added that he certainly isn’t ruling out the possibility of Cingrani proving him wrong and one day being an excellent starting pitcher, but for the time being, he appears locked into the Cincinnati bullpen.

Reds To Promote Michael Lorenzen

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The Reds will promote right-hander Michael Lorenzen to take a start on Wednesday, C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer tweets. The 23-year-old was taken in the first round of the 2013 draft.

Michael Lorenzen

Lorenzen entered the season rated as the game’s 63rd-best overall prospect in the eyes of Baseball Prospectus, while Fangraphs’ Kiley McDaniel ranked him 88th. He was a position player and closer in college, and built up relatively few innings before jumping to 120 2/3 Double-A frames last year. But they were good ones: he posted a 3.13 ERA with 6.3 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9.

Thus far in 2015, Lorenzen has allowed just six earned runs over 19 innings covering three starts. He has just 12 strikeouts in that span, hardly a dominant rate, but has only permitted four free passes.

As McDaniel explains, Lorenzen has already pleasantly surprised with the rapidity of his development and may yet have some ceiling to strive for. The Reds will once again push him forward fairly aggressively, now by asking him to step in for the injured Homer Bailey at the game’s highest level.

If he keeps his roster spot for the rest of the year, Lorenzen will be in good shape to quality down the road for Super Two status. While that would obviously enhance his earning power, he would still be controllable for six seasons after 2015.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Minor Moves: Marcus Walden

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We’ll keep track of the day’s minor moves right here:

  • The Reds have released righty Marcus Walden, according to Baseball America’s Matt Eddy. Walden, 26, joined the club as a minor league free agent but was hit hard in his only minor league start this year. Walden has shown enough in the past to warrant 40-man stints (but no big league appearances) with the Blue Jays and Athletics. But he has failed to make the leap to the highest level of the minors while exhibiting an increasing proclivity to issue free passes.

Heyman’s Latest: Bryant, Upton, Rays, Leake, Soriano, Polanco

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MLBPA executive director Tony Clark is said to be “ready to reach out to [Kris] Bryant soon to determine his mindset” on whether or not a grievance should be filed against the Cubs for holding him in Triple-A to start the season, writes Jon Heyman of CBS Sports in his latest Inside Baseball column. Heyman notes that the union could file a grievance on Bryant’s behalf even without his consent, though that’s unlikely. The issue at hand, of course, would be whether or not Bryant was clearly one of Chicago’s 25 best players and the demotion was made purely for service time implications. (Chicago bought an extra year of control over Bryant by stashing him in the Minors for all of eight games/11 days). Heyman points out that it would be difficult to an arbitrator to rule in Bryant’s favor, as there’s no precedent for this type of grievance. Players in similar situations have historically been hesitant to file a grievance, he adds, because it would be a contentious way to begin a relationship with a team to which a player will be tied for the next six-plus years. A “Cubs connected person” called the notion of a grievance “laughable” when asked by Heyman. However, the points that Bryant was recalled on the first day the team could add him while still delaying free agency and slotted directly into the cleanup spot could make a case that the club had an understanding of his value, Heyman writes. From the union’s perspective, it’s understandable that they’d have interest in preventing this type of situation in the future, even if it’s a long shot.

More highlights from a lengthy Heyman column…

  • The Padres don’t yet view Melvin Upton Jr. as a throwaway piece and will use him as an occasional outfielder and pinch-runner, Heyman writes. He also looks back on Upton’s original five-year, $75.2MM pact and notes that it’s one of the worst contracts in recent history, particularly given the fact that the next-highest offer was believed to come from the Phillies at somewhere in the $40MMs.
  • The league’s investigation into the Rays’ allegations of the Cubs’ tampering in the Joe Maddon saga could come to a close as soon as next week, per Heyman. MLB was still interviewing people as recently as last week, but to this point there “is believed to have been no smoking guns found.”
  • The Reds never approached right-hander Mike Leake about a contract extension this offseason, and the free-agent-to-be is said to be a bit hurt not to have been contacted. Leake’s not a front-line starter, but he’ll hit the open market heading into his age-28 season and currently sports a 3.56 ERA in 427 1/3 innings dating back to Opening Day 2013. A third straight season of 190+ innings and an ERA in the mid-3.00s should position him for a nice contract, especially considering the fact that half of his starts have come in the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park.
  • Multiple teams have worked out Rafael Soriano, and while he’s on the Tigers’ radar, there’s also been some contact with the Mariners. Heyman adds the Pirates, Indians and Dodgers as “logical suitors,” though I’d imagine the Pirates and Indians in particular would have some payroll constraints, depending on the asking price of agent Scott Boras.
  • Heyman echoes ESPN’s Buster Olney in speculating that the Dodgers could make a run at extending Howie Kendrick, noting that the Dodgers love Kendrick both on the field and in the clubhouse. He also notes that the Dodgers are impressed with Alex Guerrero’s bat and may coming around on him as a passable option at third base or in left field, though the team is already well-stocked at each position.
  • The Pirates and Gregory Polanco may have come as close as about $1MM on agreeing to a seven-year contract, Heyman hears. The biggest holdup was over the three club options on the deal, which ranged from $11-13MM, and when the team would have been required to exercise them.
  • Though recent reports have indicated that John Lackey hopes the Cardinals will approach him about an extension, Heyman writes that it’s not a likely scenario. St. Louis likes its pitching depth and the young starters in line beyond those in the 2015 rotation.
  • The Orioles asked the Blue Jays for both of the team’s first round picks from the 2014 draft — right-hander Jeff Hoffman and catcher Max Pentecost — in exchange for the ability to hire EVP/general manager Dan Duquette as their new president, according to Heyman.

International Notes: Fox, Diaz, Sierra

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Here’s the latest on a trio of intriguing international prospects…

  • The Cubs, Dodgers and Rangers are all interested in Bahamian shortstop Lucius Fox and scouts consider the three teams to be the “biggest threats” to sign the 17-year-old prospect, Fangraphs’ Kiley McDaniel reports.  Since many teams have already planned out their budgets and made unofficial agreements to prospects for the 2015-16 international signing period, a player like Fox (who is projected to receive a bonus of at least $1.5MM) is perhaps more likely to land with a team like the aforementioned trio who have money to spend and are aggressive enough to surpass the spending pool limit.  The Giants, Padres and Reds have also been linked to Fox but are seen as less likely to spend as freely as Chicago, Los Angeles and Texas.
  • Yusnier Diaz, an 18-year-old outfielder, has left Cuba and is looking to play in the majors, Ben Badler of Baseball America reports.  The 6’1, 185-pound prospect has plus speed and a plus arm and Badler praised his hitting tools, though he feels Diaz’s right-handed swing is a bit long.  Diaz is subject to international spending pools, and since he is unlikely to secure permanent residence in another country by the May 15 deadline, he may not be able to sign until the 2016-17 international signing period opens on July 2, 2016.  Any team that exceeds its pool limit in the 2015-16 signing period is therefore probably out of the running for Diaz, as such teams are prohibited from signing any of the next year’s class for more than $300K.  The Angels, Diamondbacks, Rays, Red Sox and Yankees are already under this penalty until the 2017-18 signing period.
  • Also from Badler, he provides some background on Cuban righty Yaisel Sierra, who isn’t subject to the bonus pools but is still several months away from gaining the necessary clearance to sign with a team.  Sierra can throw all his pitches (including a 96mph fastball and a slider) from various arm angles, though the 23-year-old is still a bit unpolished.  “Between his stuff, pitching style and history of control problems in Cuba, Sierra has a lot of similarities to Reds right-hander Raisel Iglesias, with Sierra having more size but Iglesias better performance in his final year in Cuba,” Badler writes.

Managerial Notes: Roenicke, Backman, Price

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Here’s the latest on a few managerial situations that could already be hot seats…

  • Ron Roenicke is earning $1.3MM to manage the Brewers this season, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reports (Twitter links).  Milwaukee exercised its option on Roenicke’s contract for 2016, and while Rosenthal doesn’t know the dollar figure for that extra year, he believes it can’t be too far beyond the $1.3MM figure.  With the Brewers off to a terrible start, Rosenthal figures that if the team wants to make a change in the dugout, Roenicke’s guaranteed salary wouldn’t be a major obstacle.
  • Wally Backman was recently mentioned as a potential candidate to replace Mike Redmond as the Marlins’ manager, though Backman was reportedly “shocked” to hear it, Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News reports.  Mets GM Sandy Alderson said that the Marlins hadn’t asked for permission to speak with Backman, who is currently managing the Mets’ Triple-A affiliate.
  • Reds manager Bryan Price issued an expletive-filled tirade about the media prior to Monday’s game, a reaction that Joel Sherman of the New York Post believes could be partially inspired by frustration over Cincinnati’s shaky situation.  The Reds are considered by many to be closer to a rebuild than they are to contention, and “Price is not just feeling the seat hot beneath him, but is living within a culture with an ugly near future,” Sherman writes.  Price apologized for his language today via the Reds’ official Twitter page (hat tip to the SportsCenter Twitter feed), though he stood by the content of his comments.
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