Reds Owner Says Jocketty, Baker Will Return
The season has not gone according to plan for the Reds, who are 72-76 and 14.5 games back of the Brewers in the NL Central. GM Walt Jocketty's contract is up after the season, and there's been some speculation that he could be a fit for the Cubs. Reds owner Bob Castellini shot that down though, telling John Fay of The Cincinnati Enquirer that both Jocketty and manager Dusty Baker will be back.
"Walt's contract is up … There's been some speculation about his future. My instincts tell me he isn’t going anywhere," said Fay to Castellini, who replied: "Your instincts are correct." As for Baker, Castellini said: "Of course, he’ll be back."
Jocketty has been running the Reds since late-April of 2008, when he replaced Wayne Krisvky. Baker came on board a few months before Jocketty, agreeing to manage the Reds during the 2007-2008 offseason. The duo has helped the team go from 72-90 in 2007 to the NLDS and a division title last year, though this season has been a bit of a bump in the road.
To see all of Jocketty's moves with the Reds, check out our Transactions Tracker.
Cubs Rumors: Aramis, Jocketty, LaHair
The Cubs currently project for the seventh overall pick in next year's draft. Once that is determined, things should get interesting on the North Side. The latest:
- The Reds will discuss the idea of signing third baseman Aramis Ramirez if he reaches free agency, writes Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune. I think signing Ramirez would really push the Reds' payroll to the limit, assuming they also pick up Brandon Phillips' club option. The Cubs must decide between Ramirez's $16MM club option and a $2MM buyout within five days of the end of the World Series, so the team's new GM may not yet be in place. After the Cubs decide, Ramirez has five days to make his choice on the option (declining would mean forfeiting the buyout). Ramirez wants to stay, but he recently told ESPNChicago.com's Bruce Levine he desires a two or three-year deal.
- One scenario raised during informal discussions (presumably ones including owner Tom Ricketts) has the Cubs hiring current Reds GM Walt Jocketty, which could then lead to the team snaring Tony La Russa to manage and Albert Pujols to play first base, writes Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times. Jocketty declined to comment, saying that he's happy in Cincinnati, but also lavished praise on the Cubs job and noted that the team extending farm director Oneri Fleita "shouldn't be" a hindrance. Wittenmyer says the Cubs are gathering information on Andrew Friedman, Billy Beane, Dan Evans, and Ned Colletti so far. Ricketts has yet to ask permission to speak to any GM under contract, writes Levine. In a chat conducted yesterday, Levine guessed Rick Hahn would be the next Cubs' GM.
- Also in that chat, Levine wrote that Ricketts has identified the Cubs' primary need to be two or three starting pitchers. The beat writer does not think the team will spend their money this offseason on position players. He predicts a payroll in the $120-130MM range.
- Numerous Japanese teams have been scouting and are prepared to make offers to Cubs first baseman Bryan LaHair, reports Levine. LaHair is intrigued but hopes to remain in the Majors. The 28-year-old snagged Pacific Coast League MVP honors by hitting .331/.405/.664 with 38 home runs in 523 plate appearances, and he's carried that success to the bigs in an eight-game stint. Former Cubs first baseman Micah Hoffpauir went the Japan route a year ago, but is hitting .245/.325/.429 for the Nippon Ham Fighters this year.
NL Central Notes: Berkman, Samardzija, Jocketty
Aramis Ramirez, whose solo homer helped the Cubs beat the Reds tonight, will be looking for a multiyear deal this offseason. Here’s the latest from his division, with updates on his current club and the team that first signed him…
- There's no guarantee that Lance Berkman will be back in St. Louis next year, Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes (on Twitter). Berkman has leverage, so a new deal is not a "slam dunk."
- For more on the Cardinals’ offseason plans, click here.
- The Cubs have held internal discussions about Jeff Samardzija as a candidate for the starting rotation, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times writes. The Cubs have less rotation depth than they did earlier this year, as Wittenmyer explains. The right-hander has started five MLB games, but all 69 of his 2011 appearances have been in relief.
- Reds GM Walt Jocketty told Mark Sheldon of MLB.com that he doesn't want to discuss his contract, which expires after the 2011 season. "It's not for public consumption,” he said. “It's not worth commenting on it."
- MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes discussed the free agent prospects of Reds catcher Ramon Hernandez earlier today.
- The Pirates have notified their Venezuelan academy that they're going to end their lease and stop participating in the Venezuelan Summer League, according to Jenifer Langosch of MLB.com. Pittsburgh will field two teams in the Dominican Summer League next year, however.
Rosenthal On Guillen, Marlins, Reds
The latest from Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports…
- One prominent agent told Rosenthal he can envision a free agent frenzy if a labor agreement is reached by the start of the offseason. The last labor agreement, in 2006 was followed by ridiculous overspending on mediocre veterans. The current labor agreement is set to expire on December 11th, three days after the conclusion of this year's Winter Meetings in Dallas.
- Rosenthal has a source familiar with the thinking of Ozzie Guillen who has recently dropped his predicted chances of the manager returning to 50-50.
- Rosenthal sees "mixed signals" on whether the Nationals will spend big this offseason, but he considers Jimmy Rollins a good fit.
- The Marlins intend to discuss every available starting pitcher this winter. The free agent market is looking thin, so teams with starters to trade will be in a good position.
- The Reds' top goal is to add a middle-of-the-order hitter.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Ramon Hernandez
During the period of 2003-06, Ramon Hernandez was consistently among the top ten offensive catchers in the game. He hit .278/.335/.466 in 494 games in that time, averaging almost 19 home runs per season. Fortunately for Hernandez, he reached free agency when he was still in his prime, and he scored a four-year, $27.5MM deal with the Orioles in December of 2005.
After three years in Baltimore Hernandez had worn out his welcome, and the Orioles shipped him to the Reds with cash for Ryan Freel, Justin Turner, and Brandon Waring. Hernandez wasn't great in his first year with the Reds, but they re-upped him for $3MM anyway. He managed to improve his batting average and power, but re-signed with the Reds again for the same money. Hernandez has had another solid offensive year in 2011, though he is averaging less than 100 games per season. Hernandez has re-entered the discussion of the ten best offensive catchers in baseball, but he's something less than a regular and will turn 36 in May.
Hernandez re-signed in November both times, before the Reds were forced to decide whether to offer arbitration. If no deal is reached by the free agent arbitration offer deadline this year, the Reds will have a tough decision. Hernandez profiles as a Type A free agent. At the trade deadline, Reds GM Walt Jocketty wasn't even willing to listen to offers for him, under the assumption no team would offer enough. In August, Hernandez was claimed off waivers but Jocketty again chose not to make a deal.
Jocketty's unwillingness to trade Hernandez suggests he's thinking of re-signing Hernandez, or at least is mulling an arbitration offer. Hernandez and his agent Eric Goldschmidt are aware that turning down an arbitration offer from the Reds would hurt his market value, as a team would have to surrender a draft pick to sign him. There's a case to be made for accepting an offer, as Hernandez clearly likes Cincinnati and he'd get a raise too. But with Devin Mesoraco considered the catcher of the near future for the Reds and backup Ryan Hanigan locked up through 2013, how much playing time would Hernandez get? The Reds could trade Hernandez if he accepts, at which point the catcher would probably wish he had simply chosen his destination in free agency.
There's an intricate game of cat-and-mouse when a free agent like Hernandez gets Type A status. The Reds could play it safe and not offer arbitration, but then they'd risk getting nothing for him. I think the club has more leverage here, since Hernandez would be tradeable if he accepts. If he declines Hernandez would probably be the best catcher available on the free agent market, but he'd be a better fit for a team with a protected first-round draft pick.
Photo courtesy of Icon SMI.
Reds Considering Cordero Extension
In looking at Francisco Cordero's 2012 option earler this week, MLBTR's Dan Mennella speculated that the Reds will probably decline the $12MM commitment. He's very likely correct, but according to John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer, Cincinnati may not have to make that decision. Cordero is willing to re-negotiate the option, and the Reds have interest in working out a new extension with their closer of the past four seasons.
General manager Walt Jocketty said the Reds have discussed an extension "quite a bit" but haven't made a final decision;they're hoping to make that call before season's end.
As Fay points out, the Reds don't have an obvious replacement for Cordero on their roster and would likely have to sign another one. The team is leaning toward using Aroldis Chapman in the starting rotation next year, Nick Masset has been decent but not great, and while Bill Bray's numbers appear nice, his career numbers against right-handers aren't overly impressive (.262/.327/.424 triple slash line).
Cordero is in the midst of a brilliant season; the 37-year-old righty has a 2.30 ERA with 32 saves and a career-low 2.4 BB/9 in 62 2/3 innings to date. However his 5.7 K/9 is also a career-low, and his average fastball velocity, while still a solid 93mph, is down considerably from when he averaged 94-96mph routinely from 2003-2008. Cordero posted a 10.3 K/9 over 432 1/3 innings in that stretch.
It's tough to see an extension for Cordero guaranteeing anything other than two more years, perhaps with a club option for the 2014 season, when he'd be 40 years old. Cordero has expressed his desire to stay in Cincinnati, and we saw the Reds go down a similar path with Bronson Arroyo last offseason, working out a three-year extension as he entered what would have been an option year (though they exercised his option first). A two-year deal to replace the $12MM option may have to guarantee Cordero more than that dollar amount, but perhaps his desire to remain a Red would lead to a discount.
Remember that for updates on all things closer-related, you can follow @closernews on Twitter or visit CloserNews.com.
Quick Hits: Red Sox, Iannetta, Santana, Willis
Joey Votto celebrated his 28th birthday with a 3-for-4 performance today against the Rockies, including his 27th homer of the year. It wasn't enough, however, as Cincinnati dropped a 12-7 result to Colorado.
Some notes from around the majors….
- The Red Sox could use another solid starting pitcher but "for the moment don't feel there's anyone out there available who's better than what they have," a team official tells Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.
- The Rockies will give catcher Wilin Rosario a lot of playing time this month as they decide what to do with Chris Iannetta this winter, reports Troy Renck of the Denver Post. If Rosario plays well, Colorado may decide to deal Iannetta, who's due to make $3.55MM in 2012. Iannetta's name was mentioned in trade rumors involving the Blue Jays, Red Sox, Pirates and Padres at the July deadline.
- Johan Santana will probably not pitch in the Major Leagues for the Mets this season, reports Anthony DiComo for MLB.com.
- Dontrelle Willis probably won't be back with the Reds next season, writes John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Willis has re-established himself as a big league starter this year but Fay figures that this progress has likely priced the southpaw out of the Reds' range.
- Another Red who likely won't be back in Cincinnati next year is Paul Janish, opines Hal McCoy of the Dayton Daily News. Despite some excellent glovework (a +11.6 UZR/150 at shortstop this year), Janish will be eligible for arbitration for the first time this winter and is probably a non-tender candidate with Zack Cozart taking over at short.
- Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Tribune says several American League scouts have asked him about Jesus Guzman's fielding ability in recent weeks, a sign that AL teams could have an interest in Guzman as a DH candidate. Center discusses Guzman, Bud Black's status, a possible extension for Cameron Maybin and other Padres-related topics in an online chat with fans.
- Andruw Jones has been playing all season with a small tear in his left knee, reports Marc Carig of the Star-Ledger. The Yankees discovered the injury during Jones' physical but signed the veteran outfielder anyway (both Twitter links).
Francisco Cordero’s 2012 Option
Even at a cursory glance, Reds closer Francisco Cordero's $12MM 2012 club option stands out as one of the likeliest to be declined. That's not a jab at Cordero or the season he's put together; in fact, he's quietly enjoying a campaign that ranks among his finest: 31 saves, a 2.34 ERA and 0.96 WHIP entering Thursday's action.
Cordero will turn 37 next May, however, which represents the greatest obstacle to his hefty option being exercised. And although his surface stats indicate he's still plugging along in prime form, the peripherals suggest things aren't so rosy.
Cordero's strikeout rate has dipped each of the past four seasons, all the way down to a single-season career low of 5.69 K/9 in 2011. He's managed to limit his walks to a respectable 2.48 BB/9, and his groundball rate has spiked up to nearly 52 percent, but if you put all of this in the xFIP blender, it churns out an ugly 3.91 figure. SIERA is a bit kinder at 3.49, but either number still suggests the ERA may be a product of some good fortune.
For his part, Cordero seems to be angling for a new deal with the Reds, according to John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer, implicitly conceding that the option is likely a no-go:
“I want to stay here,” he said, “whether they pick up the option or try to work something out. They’ve got a decision to make. I’m willing to negotiate a new deal.”
Between his age, subtle decline, and the wealth of closers on the free-agent market this offseason, Cordero and his representatives at Proformance won't have much negotiating leverage, whether that be with the Reds or another team. Considering he'll be shopping his services for his ages 37 and 38 seasons, he'd do well to get a two-year deal with a total value in the $8-10MM range, although I could just as easily see him settling for one year in in a buyer's market.
As for Cordero's potential suitors, it's too soon to start guessing about the closer carousel, but I think the Reds could find a home for him. They're still undecided about Aroldis Chapman's role, and Nick Masset and Logan Ondrusek profile more as workhorse setup types.
Quick Hits: Millwood, Wilson, Cubs, Cordero
Links for Saturday afternoon..
- The Rockies would like to have Kevin Millwood back next season but Troy Renck of The Denver Post (via Twitter) thinks that the club would prefer to bring him back on a minor league deal.
- In a piece for ESPN.com (Insider req'd), Dave Cameron of Fangraphs explains why he sees C.J. Wilson as a good free agent buy. Because he began his career as a reliever, the Rangers' lefty has thrown just 670.2 innings thus far in his major-league career.
- The Cubs have extended the contract of player personnel director Oneri Fleita, one of the key additions of former GM Jim Hendry, writes Dave van Dyck of the Chicago Tribune. The 44-year-old's deal is for four years, according to Toni Ginnetti of the Chicago Sun-Times.
- Earlier today, Reds closer Francisco Cordero reiterated his desire to stay in Cincinnati, writes John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer. However, the veteran said that his agent and the club have not had discussions on whether the Reds will exercise his $12MM option.
Brandon Phillips Discusses Contract Situation
Reds' second baseman Brandon Phillips has made it no secret that he would like a contract extension, but talks were not progressing as of June. He spoke to MLB.com's Mark Sheldon today about how negotiations are going and his feelings about the situation.
"I've always said from Day One that this is where I want to be at," said Phillips. "I thought there might be some talks going on during the season but I haven't heard anything all year. I was very disappointed about it … I can't really trip about anything that much. I came here and got my career back to where it should be going."
GM Walt Jocketty, meanwhile, does not believe the lack of talks are unusual, acknowledging that he has not spoken to Phillips' agent but believes he would "at some point between now and the next month or so." The Reds hold a 2012 club option that would pay the 30-year-old infielder $12MM, but Phillips said he will test the free agent waters if the team simply picks up the option without a contract extension.
"If they just pick my option up and don't extend me, I feel like that's a slap in my face," he said. "If the team wants you, they will make room. They will show you they want you here, period. They did it for some of the other guys … If they're going to have me for just one year, I feel like they don't see me in the future."
Cincinnati gave contract extensions to Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Johnny Cueto, and Bronson Arroyo this past offseason, though Votto's did not buy out any free agent years. Phillips is hitting .295/.345/.433 with a dozen homers this season, and he would be the cream of the middle infield free agent crop after next year.