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Krall: Reds Unlikely To Make Further Roster Additions

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With about three weeks until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training, there are still some notable free agents on the board but it doesn’t seem like the Reds are planning to be active in that department. The club kicked off their caravan tour today and Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer was there to talk to team personnel including general manager Nick Krall, who said that the roster is “pretty much set,” though the club could still bring in some more non-roster invitees.

There are certainly some areas of the roster where additional investment would be justified, but it doesn’t seem like the resources are there for the rebuilding club. It’s not exactly a shocking revelation as Krall has been downplaying the likelihood of significant upgrades since October. Since that time, the club has traded for Kevin Newman, Casey Legumina and Nick Solak while signing free agents Wil Myers, Luke Weaver, Curt Casali and Luke Maile. After those moves, the club’s payroll is just under the $100MM line, according to Roster Resource. That would be their lowest Opening Day figure since 2017, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but it seems they’re committed to leaving plenty of runway to let their young players battle each other for future roles on the team. “We’ve got a solid group of guys both on the big league club and in our minor league system,” Krall said. “We have a lot solid young players at the big league level. It’s just continuing to develop out of our system.”

The rotation is perhaps the most intriguing part of the roster at the major league level. Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft all debuted last year and flashed good stuff, but with some polishing perhaps still required. Greene struck out 30.9% of batters faced but posted a 4.44 ERA, perhaps due to allowing 24 home runs in 125 2/3 innings. Ashcraft only struck out 15.3% of batters faced but got ground balls at a healthy 54.5% clip en route to a 4.89 ERA. Lodolo missed almost three months due to a lower back strain but was able to post a 3.66 ERA with a 29.7% strikeout rate when healthy. Those three will be joined by reclamation project Weaver, with Luis Cessa, Connor Overton and Justin Dunn among the options to fill out the back end. It’s possible that yet another highly touted prospect could join them at some point as Brandon Williamson finished last year at Triple-A.

The bullpen could also potentially be an interesting group for the club. Alexis Díaz debuted last year and posted a 1.84 ERA, taking over the closer’s job by season’s end. Lucas Sims and Tejay Antone both showed lots of potential over 2020 and 2021 but they each were set back by injuries last year. If they can both get healthy and back on track this year, it’s possible there’s a strong relief corps to build on in Cincinnati.

On the infield, it’s possible that the club will have some tough decisions to make down the road as most of their best youngsters play on the dirt. Baseball America recently released its top 100 list for this year, with infielders Elly De La Cruz, Noelvi Marte, Edwin Arroyo and Cam Collier being the four Reds on the list. None of those players have reached Triple-A yet and won’t be able to help out immediately, but they will eventually join an infield currently manned by Kevin Newman, Jonathan India, Spencer Steer, Alejo López, Jose Barrero and Joey Votto. Newman seems like a placeholder and Votto is in the final guaranteed year of his contract, but the rest of that group are young and controllable for years to come.

The outfield is more of a hodgepodge of players who have had sprinklings of MLB time but without fully cementing themselves as viable solutions. Myers will give them one solid veteran next to Solak, TJ Friedl, Jake Fraley, Nick Senzel, Stuart Fairchild and Michael Siani. Behind the plate, Tyler Stephenson will be the primary catcher but he missed significant time due to various injuries in 2022, leading to the club bring in Maile and Casali so that Stephenson’s workload can be managed.

It’s unlikely that the Reds will find themselves in contention this year, but the individual performances of all these players could still shape the future of the franchise. There’s a decent amount of money coming off the books at the end of this year, as it’s the final guaranteed season for Votto and the now-released Mike Moustakas. That means there’s close to nothing on the books for 2024 and beyond. It’s possible the club could become more aggressive at that time, and how they dedicate those resources down the line will depend on how these players perform between now and then.

Reds Re-Sign Derek Law To Minor League Deal

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The Reds announced Monday that they’ve re-signed right-handed reliever Derek Law to a minor league contract and invited him to big league camp this spring. Cincinnati non-tendered him back in November.

Law spent the final two months of the 2022 season with the Reds organization after spending much of the year with the Tigers’ Triple-A affiliate, where he’d pitched to a 3.23 ERA in 39 innings. The 32-year-old righty pitched to a 4.08 ERA with a 19% strikeout rate, 8.9% walk rate and 49.1% ground-ball rate in 17 2/3 innings for Cincinnati after being selected to the big league roster in August.

This past season was the sixth in which Law, a ninth-round pick by the Giants back in 2011, has spent time in the Majors. He debuted with a sensational 2.13 ERA, 23.4% strikeout rate, 4.2% walk rate and 50.3% grounder rate in 55 innings with the 2016 Giants, though he’s yet to replicate that standout performance in any of his subsequent MLB efforts. In 201 innings as a big leaguer, Law carries a 4.21 ERA with strikeout and walk rates that are a bit worse than league-average (21.9% and 9.8%, respectively).

Law’s 2022 season had at least one substantial change from his prior work, as he leaned on a newly implemented cutter as his primary pitch. Nearly half of Law’s pitches were cutters despite the fact that he’d never thrown the pitch during a Major League outing before the 2022 season. He’ll continue to hone that new offering in his return to the Reds, hoping to parlay that into another opportunity in the Cincinnati ’pen.

The Reds should have ample opportunity for Law and other non-roster invitees this spring. Alexis Diaz is locked in as the team’s closer, with righties Lucas Sims, Tejay Antone, Tony Santillan and Buck Farmer and lefty Reiver Sanmartin among the options behind him. However, both Santillan and Sanmartin posted ugly numbers on the season. Antone missed the entire 2022 campaign following Tommy John surgery, while Sims was limited to just 6 2/3 innings due to a back injury. Law will join names like Alex Young, Tayron Guerrero, Silvino Bracho and Alan Busenitz as non-roster invitees hoping to force their way into the big league bullpen picture.

Reds Outright Matt Reynolds

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Jan. 20: Reynolds accepted his assignment to Louisville, the Reds announced. He’ll be invited to Major League camp in spring training.

Jan. 19: Infielder/outfielder Matt Reynolds has cleared waivers and been outrighted to Triple-A Louisville, per C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic. Reynolds was designated for assignment last week when the club signed right-hander Luke Weaver.

Reynolds, 32, began last season with the Mets but went to the Reds on a waiver claim in April. He’d long put up good number in Triple-A but hadn’t been able to reproduce them at the big league level. The rebuilding Reds gave him a shot and kept him on the roster for the rest of the season, sending him up to the plate 272 times. He drew walks at a healthy 9.6% clip but also struck out 28.7% of the time and only went deep three times. He finished the season with a .246/.320/.332 batting line and an 81 wRC+, indicating he was 19% below league average.

While his bat fell short of the MLB mean, he did at least provide the Reds with plenty of defensive versatility. He suited up at the seven non-battery positions and even made two mop-up appearances on the mound, meaning that the only position he didn’t play was catcher.

It seems that wasn’t enough to entice any of the 29 other clubs around the league, with all of them passing on the chance to add Reynolds to their 40-man. As mentioned by Rosecrans, Reynolds has the right to reject his outright assignment and elect free agency. That’s due to the fact that he’d previously been outrighted in his career. Whether he’ll accept that assignment or not remains to be seen.

Post-Tommy John Players That Could Impact 2023

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News items about Tommy John surgeries are fairly commonplace in baseball circles, but there’s no doubting it’s a significant event for the impacted player. It usually takes over a year to return to form, with a multi-stage rehabilitation process required to regain functionality.

Once a player gets back into game shape, there’s no guarantee the results will be the same. Justin Verlander looked just as good as ever in 2022, but Mike Clevinger didn’t get his velocity all the way back and saw his strikeout rate dip. He could still take another step forward in 2023 now that he’s another year removed from the procedure, but it goes to show that there are no guarantees about what happens in the aftermath.

Here are some players who went under the knife over the past year or so and who will be looking for good progress in 2023, both for their teams and themselves. Huge shoutout to the Tommy John Surgery list for having these details and so much more.

Forrest Whitley, Astros — Surgery Date: March 2021

Whitley, 25, was once considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, but his progress has been stalled by various factors. He missed 50 games in 2018 due to a drug suspension, and injuries have hampered him in the years since. He returned from his layoff late last year and tossed 40 innings in the minors but walked 14.5% of batters faced. The Astros already have a great rotation without him, but if Whitley could get back to the form that made him such a hyped prospect, they would be even more loaded.

Kirby Yates, Braves — March 2021

Yates, 36 in March, was one of the best relievers in the league in 2018 and 2019, arguably the best. He posted a 1.67 ERA over 125 games, striking out 38.7% of batters faced, walking just 6.1% of them and getting grounders on 45.2% of balls in play. Since then, however, he’s thrown just 11 1/3 innings. Seven of those came late in the 2022  season, though Yates gave up four runs on six hits and five walks in seven innings. This will be his first full season back. The Braves have a strong bullpen even if Yates can’t get back to peak form, but they’ll likely be in a tight division race and that kind of elite stuff would provide a nice boost.

José Leclerc and Jonathan Hernández, Rangers — March and April 2021, respectively

Leclerc, 29, seemed to be establishing himself as an excellent reliever in 2018. He got into 59 games for the Rangers and posted a 1.56 ERA, getting 12 saves and 15 holds in the process. A .211 BABIP surely helped, but there was a lot to like. He took a step back in 2019 with a 4.33 ERA and then missed most of the following two years. Leclerc returned in June of last year and struggled at first before posting a 2.01 ERA from July onwards. Hernández had a 2.90 ERA in 2020 before missing the 2021 campaign. He returned last year and posted a 2.97 ERA, but with concerning peripherals. His 6.4% walk rate from the former campaign jumped to 13% while his strikeout rate fell from 24.8% to 20.6%. On the more encouraging side, his ground ball rate went from 45.7% to 62.4%. The Rangers totally overhauled their rotation without doing much to the bullpen, but they could potentially get a boost from within if Leclerc and/or Hernández look good this year.

Adrián Morejón, Padres — April 2021

Once considered a top pitching prospect, Morejón, 24 next month, has been slowed by various injuries. He returned in 2022 but worked only in relief, tossing 34 innings in the majors and 13 1/3 in the minors. The Padres have some uncertainty in the back of their rotation that Morejón could help with if he stays healthy, but he’ll likely have workload concerns after so much missed time.

James Paxton, Red Sox — April 2021

Paxton, 34, had a great four-year run with the Mariners and Yankees from 2016 to 2019. However, he’s hardly pitched over the last three years due to various arm issues. He got back on the mound last summer while attempting to come back from Tommy John but then suffered a lat tear that halted his comeback effort. The Red Sox then had the choice to trigger a two-year option on the lefty worth $26MM, which they turned down based on his uncertain health outlook. He then had a $4MM player option that he triggered and will be with the Sox for 2023. He and Chris Sale would have made for a formidable one-two punch at the top of a rotation a few years ago, but neither has been healthy and effective for quite some time. Their status this year figures to have a huge impact on the fortunes of the Sox for the upcoming campaign.

Dustin May, Dodgers — May 2021

May, 25, returned late last year and was able to make six starts for the Dodgers. He posted a 4.50 ERA in that time and struck out 22.8% of batters faced, with both of those numbers paling in comparison to his pre-surgery form. The Dodgers let Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney depart from their 2022 rotation, while bringing in Noah Syndergaard. The quiet offseason will be easier to accept if May can post results like he did over 2019-2021: 2.93 ERA, 24.2% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate, 51.6% ground ball rate.

Joey Lucchesi, Mets — June 2021

Lucchesi, 30 in June, made 56 starts for the Padres in 2018 and 2019 with a 4.14 ERA. He didn’t get much of an opportunity in 2020 and was flipped to the Mets as part of the Joe Musgrove trade. He isn’t one of the club’s five best starters right now, but their rotation features four veterans who are 34 or older in Verlander, Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco and José Quintana. Also, Kodai Senga is making the transition from Japan, where starters frequently only pitch once a week. The club will surely need to rely on its depth this year at some point, making Lucchesi a key part of the equation.

Spencer Turnbull, Tigers — July 2021

Turnbull, 30, was seeming to make progress towards being a quality starter for the Tigers. He posted a 4.61 ERA in 2019 but got that down to 3.97 in 2020. He pushed it down even more in 2021, registering a 2.88 ERA over nine starts before getting shut down and requiring surgery. The Tigers seem likely to be without Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal to start the year as those pitchers deal with their own injuries. That could leave a path for Turnbull to get back on track.

Tyler Glasnow, Rays — August 2021

Glasnow, 29, didn’t live up to expectations with the Pirates but made good on his prospect pedigree after getting traded to the Rays. From 2019 to 2021, he had a 2.80 ERA while striking out 35.9% of batters faced and walking just 7.8% of them. Tommy John surgery put him out of action for a while but he was able to return late last year, making two starts in the regular season and one in the postseason. Glasnow has looked like an ace at times but still hasn’t maintained it over an extended stretch, still never reaching 115 innings in a major league season. The Rays have been fairly quiet this winter, but a healthy Glasnow is arguably a bigger upgrade to their roster than any move they could have made.

Tejay Antone, Reds — August 2021

Antone, 29, debuted in 2020 and was excellent out of the Reds’ bullpen. Over that year and 2021, he tossed 69 innings with a 2.48 ERA, 32.3% strikeout rate and 48% ground ball rate. The walks were a little high at 10.8% but he was still able to be incredibly effective regardless. He isn’t slated to reach free agency until after 2025, but the rebuilding Reds might have to consider a deadline deal if Antone is healthy and pitching well this summer.

Garrett Crochet, White Sox — April 2022

Crochet, 24 in June, was selected 11th overall in the 2020 draft and made his MLB debut later that year. Between his five appearances in 2020 and 54 more the following year, he has a 2.54 ERA and 29% strikeout rate. He’ll likely miss at least part of the upcoming campaign but the club is planning on keeping him in a relief role, which could help him return quicker.

Luke Jackson, Giants — April 2022

Jackson, 31, had a huge breakout with the Braves in 2021. He tossed 63 2/3 innings with a 1.98 ERA, striking out 26.8% of batters faced while getting grounders at a healthy 52.5% clip. He wasn’t as effective in the playoffs but nonetheless was part of the club’s World Series victory that year. He reached free agency and signed with the Giants, who are taking a shot on a return to form, though Jackson might miss the first couple of months of the 2023 season.

John Means, Orioles — April 2022

Means, 30 in April, was one of the few highlights for the Orioles during their leanest rebuilding years. He has a 3.81 ERA in 356 2/3 career innings, keeping his walks down to an excellent 5% rate. The Orioles took a huge step forward last year, graduating many of their top prospects and actually flirting with postseason contention. They’ll be looking to make more progress this year, but the rotation is still lacking in proven options. Getting Means back into the mix would be a big help if some of the younger guys struggle.

Chris Paddack, Twins — May 2022

Paddack, 27, had a great debut with the Padres in 2019, making 26 starts with a 3.33 ERA. His results fell off in the next two seasons, and he dealt with an elbow strain late in the 2021 season, but the Twins still liked him enough to acquire him as part of their return for Taylor Rogers. He was only able to make five starts before landing on the shelf. Their faith doesn’t seem to have wavered, as they recently signed him to a three-year extension. The Twins have a solid rotation on paper, but nearly the entire group landed on the injured list at some point in 2022. Kenta Maeda missed the whole season while rehabbing from an internal brace procedure, a modification of Tommy John surgery. Since injuries were the big story for the Twins in 2022, better health and/or better depth will be important in 2023.

Chad Green, Free Agent — June 2022

Green, 32 in May, spent the past seven seasons pitching for the Yankees. He tossed 383 2/3 innings in that time with a 3.17 ERA, striking out 32.5% of batters faced against a 6.3% walk rate. Unfortunately, he required Tommy John just a few months away from qualifying for free agency. He has yet to sign with a club, but players in this position often sign two-year deals that cover their rehab and give the team an extra year of control. If Green can find himself a deal like that, he could be a wild card down the stretch.

Casey Mize, Tigers — June 2022

Mize, 26 in May, was selected first overall by the Tigers in 2018. He posted a solid 3.71 ERA in 2021, but with disappointing underlying metrics. He only struck out 19.3% of batters faced and had a much higher 4.92 xERA, 4.71 FIP and 4.45 SIERA. After a dreadful 2022 season, the Tigers need to see how Turnbull, Mize, Skubal and Manning look this year before deciding how to proceed for the future.

Hyun Jin Ryu, Blue Jays — June 2022

Ryu, 36 in March, has oscillated between being injured and dominant for much of his career. He signed a four-year deal with the Blue Jays prior to 2020 and posted a 2.69 ERA that year, coming in third in the AL Cy Young voting. His ERA ticked up to 4.37 in 2021, and Ryu struggled even more last year before going under the knife. The Jays have a solid front four in their rotation but uncertainty at the back. Ryu is targeting a July return, and his health at that time could impact how the Jays approach the trade deadline.

Andrew Kittredge, Rays — June 2022

Kittredge, 33 in March, dominated in 2021 by posting a 1.88 ERA over 71 2/3 innings. He struck out 27.3% of batters he faced while walking just 5.3% of them and also got grounders on 53.5% of balls in play. He took a step back last year but made multiple trips to the injured list and likely wasn’t 100%. He’ll surely miss the first several months of the season but could jump into Tampa’s bullpen down the stretch.

Walker Buehler, Dodgers — August 2022

Buehler, 28, has an excellent track record for the Dodgers, having posted a 3.02 ERA in 638 1/3 innings. He’s struck out 27% of opponents while giving out free passes to just 6.3% of them. The Dodgers will have to get by without him for the majority of 2023, though there’s a chance he could be a late addition to the roster if all goes well. His August surgery makes him roughly one year behind Glasnow, who was able to return late in 2022. However, Glasnow’s procedure was August 4th of 2021 while Buehler’s was on the 23rd of last year. Still, if the Dodgers make a deep postseason run, that could give Buehler the runway he needs to make a landing this year.

September 2022 Or Later: Shane Baz, Anthony Gose, Scott Effross, Tyler Matzek, Bryce Harper

These players face longer odds of making an impact since their surgeries were so late in the year. The major exception is Harper, since position players require less recovery time than pitchers. Harper is hoped to be able to return to the Phillies around the All-Star break as a designated hitter, with a chance of returning to the field later in the campaign.

Reds Sign Alex Young, Richie Martin To Minor League Deals

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The Reds announced a pair of minor league deals today, one of them going to left-hander Alex Young and the other to infielder Richie Martin. Both players have received invitations to major league Spring Training.

Young, 29, was a second round pick of the Diamondbacks in the 2015 draft. He had a solid debut in the majors in 2019, throwing 83 1/3 innings with a 3.56 ERA. His 20.3% strikeout rate was below average but he limited walks to a 7.7% rate and got grounders at a 44.4% clip.

The next couple of seasons were a struggle, however, with the southpaw posting ERAs of 5.44 in 2020 and 6.58 the year after. The Diamondbacks put him on waivers in that latter campaign, with Young getting claimed by Cleveland. The Guardians then passed him through waivers in the offseason but he pitched well in the minors and got selected back to the roster in July. He only made one appearance for Cleveland before getting designated for assignment but the Giants liked him enough to send cash considerations to the Guards and put Young into 24 games.

Young got some good results with the Giants and finished the year with a 2.36 ERA over 26 2/3 innings. His 18.1% strikeout rate and 9.5% walk rate were both subpar but he got grounders at a strong 54.2% rate. Despite that performance, he was non-tendered by the Giants after the season.

Right now, the Reds have Reiver Sanmartin as their only lefty on the 40-man that’s projected to be in the bullpen. If Young can make his way onto the roster, he can provide them with some roster flexibility since he still has one option year remaining. He can also be retained for future seasons via arbitration since he has just under three years of MLB service time.

As for Martin, 28, he was a first round selection of the A’s in 2015. Prospect evaluators have long praised his defense, speed and athleticism but raised concerns about his work with the bat. The A’s weren’t satisfied enough with his progress to give him a roster spot after 2018, allowing the Orioles to nab him with the first pick in that year’s Rule 5 draft.

Martin stuck on the rebuilding O’s roster that year, allowing them to obtain full control over his rights. However, the concerns about his bat have come to fruition. Through 447 plate appearances in the majors thus far, he’s hit just .212/.261/.311 for a wRC+ of 50. He’s been better in the minors but still not very exciting. In 80 Triple-A games last year, he hit .250/.341/.380 for a wRC+ of 96, though he did steal 29 bases in that time. The O’s outrighted him off the roster in September and he elected free agency at season’s end.

For the Reds, there’s little harm in taking a flier and seeing if Martin can find another gear this year. They are currently set to send another glove-first option to their shortstop position in Kevin Newman. It’s expected that prospect Elly De La Cruz will eventually take over as the club’s shortstop of the future, though he’s only 21 and has yet to reach Triple-A. If Martin can take a step forward at the plate, there would be little preventing the Reds from giving him a shot in the big leagues. If he earns his way onto the roster, he still has one option year remaining and can be retained for a while via arbitration since he has between two and three years of major league service time.

Notable International Signings: 1/15/2023

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Major League Baseball’s international signing period for 2023 has officially opened up today, with many of the big names signing almost immediately. Teams have long since agreed to verbal agreements with newly eligible teenage players, and today’s signings largely represent confirmation of what was anticipated. Still, it’s a day of no small moment, particularly for the young men embarking upon the start of their professional careers.

As previously mentioned, most of the agreements have been known for a while, with Baseball America’s Ben Badler and MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez having listed each player’s expected landing spot. You can find each team’s total bonus pool and other information on the process right here. Here are a few key deals:

  • Ethan Salas, C, Venezuela — Padres ($5.6MM): Ranked as the top prospect by both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline, the 16-year-old is considered by MLB Pipeline as “one of the best catching prospects in recent history” and is lauded for his strike zone control, power, and defense. Scouts have specifically highlighted his swing and soft hands. Born in June 2006, the backstop is the youngest player in MLB Pipeline’s Top 10 International Prospect Rankings. The young switch-hitter is no stranger to high-level baseball, with his grandfather, father, and uncle all playing professionally, and his older brother Jose Salas signed by the Marlins in 2019. Salas’ $5.6MM deal will comprise almost all of the Padres’ base signing pool of $5.825,000.
  • Felnin Celesten, SS, Dominican Republic — Mariners ($4.7MM): MLB Pipeline’s second-best prospect and Baseball America’s third-best, Celesten has been heralded as having “the highest ceiling of any international shortstop prospect in a decade” by MLB Pipeline. Scouts have noted the switch-hitter’s plus speed, arm, and raw power. However, Baseball America reports that Celesten has “an aggressive approach” and “might need to become a more selective hitter.“
  • Brando Mayea, OF, Cuba — Yankees ($4.4MM): Baseball America’s second-best prospect and MLB Pipeline’s ninth-best, Mayea has drawn praise for his bat speed, power, and approach to the plate, with one scout going as far as to describe the 17-year-old as a “mini Gary Sheffield.” Scouts have praised the righty’s strong arm, with some expecting an eventual move to a corner outfield position.
  • Alfredo Duno, C, Venezuela — Reds (Unknown): MLB Pipeline’s fourth-best prospect and Baseball America’s seventh-best, Duno is a 17-year-old catcher that boasts three above-average tools — his fielding, arm, and power. Scouts have praised his “elite bat speed” and defensive ability. MLB Pipeline and Baseball America both predict that Duno will remain behind the plate, but both also cite his swing-and-miss tendencies as a result of his aggressive approach.
  • Emmanuel Bonilla, OF, Dominican Republic — Blue Jays ($4.1MM): Baseball America’s fourth-best prospect and MLB Pipeline’s seventh-best, Bonilla profiles as a slugging outfielder that has a chance to remain in centerfield but will likely move to a corner position as the 16-year-old matures. Scouts have praised the righty’s bat speed and swing, with Baseball America reporting that some scouts believe Bonilla has “one of the best combinations of hitting ability and power in the class.”
  • Luis Morales, RHP, Cuba — Athletics (Unknown): MLB Pipeline’s fifth-best prospect and Baseball America’s ninth-best, Morales is a hard-throwing righty with a fastball that sits between 94-97 MPH with a slider, changeup, and curveball as secondary pitches. Born in Cuba, Morales was considered the best U-18 pitcher on the island, setting a record for strikeouts (161) in 82 2/3 innings between 2019 and 2020. He defected in 2021 while playing for Cuba’s U-23 team in Mexico. Morales, 20, is one of the oldest high-profile international prospects and thus may be potentially fast-tracked through the A’s system.
  • Sebastian Walcott, SS, Bahamas — Rangers (Unknown): Baseball America’s sixth-best prospect and MLB Pipeline’s eighth-best, Walcott is a 6’3, 170 lbs (6’4, 190 lbs, per Baseball America) 16-year-old that has impressed scouts with high raw power and bat speed. Despite being 6’3, Walcott has drawn praise for his contact skills, hand-eye coordination, and his fluid swing. Baseball America projects that as Walcott matures, he will outgrow the shortstop position and transition to third base. 

Several other well-regarded prospects also secured bonuses of $2M or more, with the specifics provided by Sanchez:

  • Brailer Guerrero, OF, D.R., Rays ($3.7MM)     [MLB Pipeline #12, BA #5]
  • Jesus Caba, SS, D.R., Phillies ($3MM)                [MLB Pipeline #11, BA #8]
  • Ariel Castro, OF, Cuba, Twins ($2.5MM)            [MLB Pipeline #11, BA#13]
  • Rayner Arias, OF, D.R., Giants ($2.8MM)          [MLB Pipeline #15, BA #8]
  • Camilo Diaz, OF, D.R., Astros ($2.25MM)          [MLB Pipeline #17, BA #19]
  • Luis Almeyda, SS, D.R., Orioles ($2.3MM)        [MLB Pipeline #20, BA #17]
  • Roberto Calaz, OF, D.R., Rockies ($2.5MM)     [MLB Pipeline #24, BA #14]

Reds Sign Luke Weaver

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The Reds announced they’ve signed right-hander Luke Weaver to a one-year contract. Infielder Matt Reynolds was designated for assignment in a corresponding 40-man roster move. The Boras Corporation client will receive a $2MM base salary, tweets Mark Sheldon of MLB.com.

Weaver joins the fifth organization of his professional career. A first-round selection of the Cardinals in 2014, he broke into the majors with St. Louis two years later. After struggling through nine outings as a rookie, the former top prospect put up a 3.88 ERA through 60 1/3 innings in 2017. Weaver looked as if he might carve out a long-term rotation role for the Redbirds, but he stumbled to a 4.95 ERA across a career-high 136 1/3 frames the next season.

The following offseason, St. Louis packaged Weaver alongside Carson Kelly and Andrew Young to the Diamondbacks for Paul Goldschmidt. The move and subsequent five-year extension turned out brilliantly for St. Louis but didn’t pay off for the Snakes. That’s in large part because Weaver never cemented himself in the Arizona rotation.

Things started off encouragingly enough, as Weaver pitched to a 2.94 ERA in 12 starts in 2019. He posted strong peripherals but missed an extended chunk of time with forearm tightness. Arm injuries would unfortunately become a recurring theme for the Florida State product, who has lost notable portions of three of the last four seasons. The only recent fully healthy campaign came in 2020 with the shortened schedule. He took a full slate of 12 turns through the rotation that year but was bombed for a 6.58 ERA through 52 innings. He was limited to 13 starts in 2021 by a strained shoulder and lost a couple months early last season with inflammation in his throwing elbow.

Over three-plus seasons in the desert, Weaver pitched to a 4.72 ERA in just fewer than 200 innings. At last summer’s trade deadline, the Snakes flipped him to the Royals for infielder Emmanuel Rivera. Kansas City’s buy-low attempt didn’t go as hoped. Working exclusively in relief, Weaver allowed 15 runs in 19 2/3 innings. The Royals took him off the roster after the season. He briefly landed with the Mariners via waivers but Seattle non-tendered him within a couple weeks. That sent him to free agency for the first time, where he’ll try to right the ship in Cincinnati.

Over parts of seven MLB seasons, Weaver owns a 4.79 ERA in 450 2/3 innings. He’s struck out a solid 23.5% of opposing hitters against a manageable 7.5% walk percentage. That strikeout/walk profile has led to more favorable views from ERA estimators like FIP (3.96) and SIERA (4.08) than his bottom line ERA might suggest. An elevated .328 batting average on balls in play has plagued Weaver, though it’d be overly simplistic to attribute that entirely to poor luck. The 6’2″ hurler has given up plenty of hard contact throughout his career. Opponents have hit more than 40% of their batted balls hard (with an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater) in each of the last four seasons.

Primarily a fastball-changeup pitcher, Weaver has unsuccessfully tinkered with various breaking pitches over the years. He’s mixed in each of a slider, cutter and curveball throughout his MLB tenure but never seemed entirely comfortable with any of those offerings. Working almost exclusively out of the bullpen last season, he turned to his fastball or changeup roughly 90% of the time while occasionally deploying a slider as a third pitch against right-handed batters.

Weaver started just one of his 26 outings last season. He’d started 80 of 89 big league appearances before last year, though, and it seems the Reds will give him another shot at a rotation role. Cincinnati has Nick Lodolo, Hunter Greene and Graham Ashcraft — each of whom showed upside to varying degrees as rookies last season — penciled into three rotation spots. The final two are firmly up for grabs, with players like Luis Cessa, Justin Dunn and Connor Overton battling for rotation jobs as well. Weaver figures to have the inside track at one of the available spots, with Cessa having primarily been a reliever throughout his career and Dunn and Overton still having minor league options remaining.

The 29-year-old Weaver has over five years of major league service time. He can’t be optioned without his consent, so he’s a virtual lock to open the season on the MLB roster in some capacity. He’ll return to the free agent market again at year’s end, and the one-year term makes him an obvious midseason trade candidate if things click early in his Cincinnati tenure. The Reds are unlikely to hang around the playoff picture in 2023, making it likely they’d field offers on short-term veterans like Weaver and fellow free agent signee Wil Myers if those players perform well enough to draw interest from contenders.

Tacking on Weaver’s modest salary brings Cincinnati’s projected payroll up around $81MM, as calculated by Roster Resource. That’s well below last year’s $114MM approximate Opening Day figure. General manager Nick Krall has spoken on multiple occasions about the payroll constraints facing the front office. It’s possible Cincinnati rolls the dice on another low-cost upside play or two with Spring Training a month away, but they’re unlikely to make any particularly noteworthy free agent additions. The bullpen and center field stand out as areas where Cincinnati could continue searching for smaller upgrades.

Reynolds, displaced by Weaver’s addition, landed in Cincinnati last April off waivers from the Mets. The out-of-options infielder held his roster spot all season, appearing in 92 games with Cincinnati. He tallied a new career high with 272 plate appearances, hitting .246/.320/.332 with a trio of home runs. Reynolds walked in nearly 10% of his plate appearances but went down on strikes roughly 29% of the time. While he made a fair amount of hard contact, a lofty 50.9% grounder rate muted his overall power impact.

The Reds will now have a week to trade the 32-year-old infielder or place him on waivers. Reynolds has cleared outright waivers twice previously in his career. That’d give him the right to refuse an outright assignment and test minor league free agency if he goes unclaimed again.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Reds, Henry Ramos Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Reds are in agreement with outfielder Henry Ramos on a minor league contract, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter link). He’ll be in big league camp as a non-roster invitee to Spring Training.

Ramos has a bit of big league experience. He debuted as a September call-up for the Diamondbacks in 2021, earning the nod after a .371/.439/.582 showing at Triple-A Reno. He appeared in 18 games for the Snakes at season’s end, hitting .200/.255/.300 across 55 trips to the plate. Arizona ran him through outright waivers at the start of that offseason, and he qualified for minor league free agency.

The switch-hitting outfielder parlayed his big Triple-A showing into an opportunity in South Korea. Ramos signed with the KBO’s KT Wiz but didn’t hold his spot on the roster for long. He got out to a .250/.304/.417 start through 18 contests before fracturing a toe on his right foot. The Wiz released him to facilitate the signing of former Blue Jays outfielder Anthony Alford in May. Ramos didn’t sign anywhere else for the rest of the season but returned in the Puerto Rican winter league this offseason.

The 30-year-old will get some reps in Spring Training and seems likely to open next season at Triple-A Louisville. Ramos can cover all three outfield positions and carries a .297/.350/.471 line in a bit less than 1400 career plate appearances at the top minor league level. The Reds seem likely to open with Nick Senzel in center field, with TJ Friedl, Stuart Fairchild and rookie Michael Siani among the other options on the 40-man roster.

Reds Sign Tayron Guerrero To Minor League Deal

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The Reds announced they’ve signed right-hander Tayron Guerrero to a minor league contract. The deal comes with an invite to big league spring training.

Guerrero, 32 on Monday, hasn’t pitched in the big leagues since 2019, and spent the last year in Japan. He turned in a productive year for the Chiba Lotte Marines, working to a 3.52 ERA in 46 innings of relief work. He gave up just two home runs all year, and struck out 12.3 batters per nine innings.

Originally signed out of Colombia by the Padres back in 2016, Guerrero pitched just two innings for San Diego before being flipped to Miami in the 2016 deadline deal headlined by Andrew Cashner. He’d get plenty of opportunities in the Marlins’ bullpen, but wouldn’t have much success, and between 2018-19 Guerrero pitched to a 5.80 ERA over 104 innings of relief work. His strikeout rate was a tick above average, but he struggled with free passes, and wound up with a career walk rate of 13.6%, well above the league average of 8.4%.

He spent the 2021 season at Triple-A with the White Sox, but after failing to make the major league roster at all that season he was released and signed on to play in Japan. Guerrero boasted a 99mph fastball but like a lot of hard throwers he struggled with command. He gave up just 3.9 walks per nine innings in Japan though, so if he can bring that improved control back to the US he could turn himself into a serviceable reliever for the Reds.

Reds Release Mike Moustakas

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The Reds have announced that infield Mike Moustakas has been released. He was recently designated for assignment when the club signed catcher Curt Casali.

The fact that Moustakas has been released was the expected outcome when he was sent into DFA limbo last month. He still has one year and $22MM remaining on his contract, which comes in the form of an $18MM salary and a $4MM buyout on a club option for 2024. Since Moustakas has been injured and/or underperforming for the past couple of seasons, no team was going to take that off Cincinnati’s hands.

Moustakas, now 34, parlayed a strong run of success with the Royals and Brewers into a four-year, $64MM deal with the Reds going into 2020. The first season of the deal went fine enough, as Moustakas hit .230/.331/.468 for a wRC+ of 105. However, the past two seasons have been disappointing, with Moustakas battling various injuries, including a heel contusion and a calf strain, and struggling to produce when on the field. He played just 62 games in 2021 and 78 in 2022, hitting a combined .211/.289/.356 for a wRC+ of 73.

With the Reds starting another rebuild recently, they will be focused on giving opportunities to younger players who can be part of the next competitive window. Jonathan India will get the bulk of playing time at second base while Spencer Steer should get an extended audition at third base. That nudged Moustakas out of his two primary positions. He’s also played a bit of first base, but the Reds will have Joey Votto there and Tyler Stephenson could also be in the mix to keep his bat in the lineup while Curt Casali and Luke Maile handle the catching duties. Given all that, they decided to let Moustakas move on and try to find an opportunity elsewhere.

Moustakas will now be free to sign with any team, with the Reds on the hook for his remaining salary. Any other club that signs him would only be responsible for the prorated league minimum for any time spent on the roster, with that amount being subtracted from what the Reds pay. A similar situation recently played out with Moose’s former teammate in Kansas City, as Eric Hosmer was released by the Red Sox and seems to be joining the Cubs. The Padres will still be on the hook for Hosmer’s salary, making it a fairly low-risk gamble for the Cubs. Moustakas will look for a similar opportunity, joining a free agent market that also includes infielders such as Josh Harrison, César Hernández and Brian Anderson.

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