Reds Rumors

Twins Rumors: Mahle, Castillo, Marlins, Coulombe, Winder, Catcher

By Steve Adams | July 27, 2022 at 12:43pm CDT

The Twins currently hold a 2.5-game lead in the American League Central, but another poor performance from a pitching staff that has squandered far too many leads this season cost them a win over the Brewers last night. Upgrading the pitching staff will be a priority for the Twins before next Tuesday’s deadline, and to that end, they’ve been in the market on both Reds ace Luis Castillo and Athletics top starter Frankie Montas, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan.

The Athletic’s Dan Hayes, however, writes that the Twins are more interested in Castillo’s teammate Tyler Mahle than in Castillo himself. Hayes adds that the Twins have been in talks with the Marlins about pitching help. Minnesota and Miami, it should be noted, have had talks regarding potential swaps sending pitching to Minnesota frequently in offseasons past. The Marlins are reportedly open to offers on Pablo Lopez, and reliever Anthony Bass, Dylan Floro and Steven Okert are a few speculative trade candidates in the Marlins’ bullpen. Generally speaking, the Marlins are deep in pitching options that’ll appeal not only to the Twins but other clubs seeking upgrades.

Whether the preference for Mahle over Castillo — which Hayes also indicated back in the offseason — is a reflection of asking price or of the Twins’ belief that he has the superior raw stuff isn’t clear. But Mahle has flown somewhat under the radar for the past few seasons despite being quite similar, statistically, to both Castillo and Montas since 2020.

It’s hard not to wonder just what Mahle’s performance might look like in another uniform, as his numbers away from the homer-happy Great American Ball Park are tantalizing. Few pitchers have such a dramatic home/road split as Mahle, who since 2020 has pitched to a 2.93 ERA on the road but an ugly 4.89 mark at home. Mahle has allowed 1.75 homers per nine innings pitched in Cincinnati, compared to just 0.52 long balls per nine on the road. He also has a better strikeout rate and opponents’ hard-hit rate than either Castillo or Montas, dating back to 2020 — albeit with the highest walk rate of the three.

Broadly speaking, Mahle is much closer to the Montas/Castillo tier of pitcher than most pundits credit him. And, with a $5.2MM salary compared to Castillo’s $7.35MM mark, he’s a bit more affordable than his teammate and right in line with Montas ($5MM). Like that duo, he’s controlled through the 2023 season.

Mahle got out to an awful start in 2022, pitching to a 6.32 ERA through his first ten appearances. However, most of the damage against him came in two brutal outings — eight runs versus the Cubs on May 24 and seven runs against the Dodgers on April 17 — and he’s been excellent over the past two months. Dating back to May 29, Mahle has a 2.81 ERA, 27.5% strikeout rate and 7.7% walk rate in 51 1/3 innings. Overall, he’s sitting on a 4.48 ERA this season, but marks like xERA (3.30) and FIP (3.78) feel he’s been quite a bit better than that. A minor shoulder strain sent him to the IL earlier this month, but Mahle returned Sunday to fire six quality innings.

Regardless of the specific names they acquire, the Twins seem nearly certain to augment both their rotation and their bullpen in the next six days. Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax have been their only two consistently reliable arms, and their ’pen depth took a further hit yesterday when left-hander Danny Coulombe was transferred to the 60-day injured list. The Twins announced today that Coulombe required season-ending surgery to repair the labrum in his left hip, subtracting a quietly useful lefty from the mix.

The 32-year-old Coulombe is a journeyman southpaw who found a home in the Twins organization back in 2020. He only made two appearances with the Twins that season but returned on a minor league deal in 2021 and has been solid overall in the Twins’ relief corps. Dating back to 2020, Coulombe has pitched 49 1/3 innings with aa 2.92 ERA, 22% strikeout rate and 9.3% walk rate. He’ll get big league service time while finishing out the year on the 60-day IL, but he’ll be a clear non-tender candidate following that surgery.

Meanwhile, Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune tweets that promising young righty Josh Winder, one of the Twins’ brightest arms and currently the game’s No. 68 prospect at Baseball America, is being shut due to recurring shoulder discomfort. The Twins are still trying to determine the cause of the issue, but the loss of Winder, who’s already given them 45 1/3 Major League innings (3.77 ERA) is a huge hit to the Twins’ rotation and bullpen depth.

For all the focus on the Twins’ pitching staff, it’s not their only area of need. Catcher Ryan Jeffers’ fractured thumb will sideline him for up to eight weeks, which has pushed Gary Sanchez into a starting catcher role with Minnesota. He’d previously been used more evenly between designated hitter and catcher, but Sanchez will now get the lion’s share of playing time behind the plate now. Caleb Hamilton, a 2016 23-round pick who’d never hit much above A-ball prior to this season, is currently serving as his backup.

It’s not terribly surprising, then, that Darren Wolfson of 1500 SKOR North mentions in his latest podcast that the Twins will explore the market for a more veteran backup to Sanchez. Twins fans probably shouldn’t expect to see Willson Contreras riding into town anytime soon, but players like Tucker Barnhart or Pedro Severino jump out as possibly available veteran backups.

Wolfson adds, via Twitter, that outfield prospect Matt Wallner and infield prospect Spencer Steer have been mentioned in trade scenarios the team has had recently — and understandably so. Wallner, the No. 39 overall pick in 2019, recently jumped to Triple-A after posting a .299/.436/.597 batting line (157 wRC+) and 21 homers in 342 plate appearances with the Twins’ Double-A club. Steer, selected just 51 picks after Wallner, is hitting a combined .274/.359/.549 in 78 games between Double-A and Triple-A. He recently just landed in the No. 99 spot on Baseball America’s latest Top 100 prospect ranking. Certainly, neither Wallner nor Steer would be included in a small trade for a backup catcher, but it’s easy to see both being the type of players coveted by teams peddling controllable help in the rotation and bullpen.

Reds Agree To Terms With First-Rounder Cam Collier

By Anthony Franco | July 25, 2022 at 5:52pm CDT

The Reds have agreed to terms with first-round pick Cam Collier on a $5MM deal, tweets Mark Sheldon of MLB.com. R.J. Anderson of CBS Sports reported over the weekend that Collier was expected to receive a bonus in that range. That’s well north of the $3.6598MM slot value associated with the #18 pick, with which the infielder was selected. Collier had been committed to the University of Louisville, but he’ll instead make the jump to pro ball.

The overslot bonus reflects the fact that he was widely regarded as one of the best players in the class. Each of Baseball America, The Athletic, MLB Pipeline, ESPN and FanGraphs placed him among their top ten prospects in pre-draft rankings. Keith Law of the Athletic was the most bullish, naming Collier the #2 prospect in the draft. The $5MM bonus falls between the slot values of the ninth and tenth overall selections, better aligning with his prospect reputation than the #18 pick would suggest.

A left-handed hitter, Collier won’t turn 18 years old until November. He was originally slated to be a member of the 2023 class, but he enrolled at a Florida junior college this spring to qualify for this year’s draft. Despite his youth, Collier had very good numbers in JUCO ball, reaffirming his stock as one of the better offensive players in the class. Evaluators suggest the 6’2″ infielder should blossom into an above-average to plus hitter with solid raw power. Collier has already moved to third base, but reports indicate he has a decent chance to stick at the hot corner, where his plus arm should be an asset.

Reds Activate Tyler Mahle, Place Jeff Hoffman On 15-Day Injured List

By TC Zencka | July 24, 2022 at 11:01am CDT

The Reds have activated starter Tyler Mahle from the 15-day injured list to start today’s game. In a corresponding move, the club placed reliever Jeff Hoffman on the 15-day injured list. The Reds also activated Justin Dunn from the 60-day injured list and optioned the former Mariner to Triple-A, per Mark Sheldon of MLB.com (via Twitter).

Mahle has made 17 starts on the season, posting a 4.48 ERA/3.55 FIP across 92 1/3 innings with a 25.8 percent strikeout rate, 9.1 percent walk rate, and 34.5 percent groundball rate. Mahle will certainly find himself in some trade rumors over the next ten days, though the Reds do not have to move him. He has one season of arbitration remaining.

Hoffman’s injury does not appear to be serious, but they’ll give him a couple of weeks to make sure it doesn’t turn into something more involved. The 29-year-old has provided solid short-to-long-stint relief for the Reds, tossing 44 2/3 innings over 35 outings with a 3.83 ERA/4.30 FIP.

Dunn was acquired from the Mariners this past winter as part of the Jesse Winker/Eugenio Suarez deal. He just completed his rehab assignment, making six starts in Triple-A and posting a 5.40 ERA over 20 innings of work. If the Reds end up moving a starter or two over the next ten days, Dunn could find himself with an opportunity back in the bigs. With the Mariners, he logged 102 2/3 innings over three years with a 3.94 ERA/5.61 FIP.

Draft Signings: Mariners, White Sox, Reds, Orioles

By Mark Polishuk | July 23, 2022 at 10:28pm CDT

Here is today’s roundup of top-39 (first round, supplemental round, Competitive Balance Round A) draft picks who have signed their first pro contracts. For further reference, here is the full list of recommended slot prices, and you can click the links for full pre-draft rankings and scouting reports from Baseball America, Fangraphs, MLB Pipeline, The Athletic’s Keith Law, and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel.

The Mariners have signed their picks from the first three rounds, according to MLB.com’s Daniel Kramer (Twitter link). This includes 21st overall pick Cole Young, who received a $3.3MM bonus that is slightly above the $3,292,900 slot price. The high school shortstop was a consensus pick in the 12-20 range by evaluators, and is considered to have a high floor as an all-around talent and future big leaguer, though there is some question whether he has the skillset to be a regular starter.
The White Sox agreed to a deal with left-hander Noah Schultz, according to Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline. (The Sox officially announced Schultz’s signing later in the day.) Schultz’s $2.8MM bonus is also a touch above the $2,789,400 assigned to the 26th overall pick. A local product born in Napierville, Illinois, Schultz is already 6’9″ at age 18, and owns a plus slider and an unconventional low-slot delivery. McDaniel was the highest of the pundits on Schultz’s potential, ranking the southpaw 34th in the draft class.
The Reds agreed to sign Sal Stewart for $2,097,500, Callis reports. This is under the $2,373,000 slot price attached to the 32nd overall selection, which could reflect a slight reach on the Reds’ part — BA was the highest on Stewart with a 58th overall ranking, and Law had Stewart 59th. That said, McDaniel thought Stewart could be something of a tough sign due to his commitment to Vanderbilt, but the high school third baseman will instead forego college for the minor leagues.
The Orioles announced the signing of Dylan Beavers, the 33rd overall selection. Nathan Ruiz of The Baltimore Ruiz (Twitter link) reports that Beavers received a $2.2MM bonus, providing the O’s with some savings under the $2,315,100 slot price. Pipeline ranked the Cal outfielder 22nd in its rankings, writing that “when Beavers is locked in, he’s the proverbial five-tool player,” though Beavers had had some issues staying consistent.

NL Notes: Castillo, Moose, Solano, Matz, Longoria, Padres

By Mark Polishuk | July 23, 2022 at 9:45pm CDT

Luis Castillo is drawing loads of attention as the trade deadline nears, and according to Bobby Nightengale of The Cincinnati Enquirer, the Reds’ focus seems to be on getting young talent for Castillo rather than using him as an avenue to cut payroll. The idea of having a rival team take on Mike Moustakas’ contract as part of a Castillo deal hasn’t come up in recent negotiations, Nightengale writes, though the Reds were open to such a concept in other talks last year. However, as Cincinnati has moved some salaries off the books in subsequent deals, payroll cuts no longer seem to be as big a priority.

Castillo isn’t the only trade chip on the roster, as the Reds put “a high asking price” on infielder Donovan Solano in recent talks with an unknown club. Solano has hit an impressive .313/.371/.450 in 89 plate appearances this season, trying to make up for lost time after a hamstring injury delayed his 2022 debut until June 22. Cincinnati inked Solano to a one-year, $4.5MM deal in March, so he would be a pure rental for any club looking to add a versatile infielder and veteran right-handed bat to the mix.

Tyler Stephenson Fractures Clavicle

By Anthony Franco | July 23, 2022 at 10:30am CDT

July 23: The Reds have officially placed Stephenson on the 10-day injured list with a broken right clavicle. They have recalled catcher Mark Kolozsvary to claim his roster spot, per Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer (via Twitter). Kolozsvary, 26, has appeared in seen games this season for the Reds, going 1-for-11 at the plate.

July 22: Reds catcher Tyler Stephenson broke his clavicle during today’s contest against the Cardinals, the team informed reporters (including Mark Sheldon of MLB.com). There is no timetable for his return.

Stephenson suffered the injury when he took a Paul Goldschmidt foul tip off his right shoulder area. Later in the at-bat, Goldschmidt hit a tapper in front of home plate. Stephenson fielded the ball but went down in pain as he reared back to throw the ball to first base. He was then replaced by Michael Papierski.

It’s an all too familiar occurrence for Stephenson, who has been knocked out of a game on three separate occasions this year. He suffered a concussion in a home plate collision with Luke Voit in April. That cost him a couple weeks of action. A month later, he was hit by a foul tip on his throwing hand and fractured his thumb. He lost a month to that injury, returning a bit before the All-Star Break. He’s now in for another extended absence, and it remains to be seen if the remainder of his 2022 season could be in jeopardy.

The injuries have interrupted what has looked like a breakout season for the former first-round pick. Stephenson had an impressive 2021 campaign, hitting .286/.366/.431 across 402 plate appearances. Cincinnati dealt Tucker Barnhart to the Tigers to clear the path to everyday playing time behind the dish, and Stephenson has responded with a .319/.372/.482 showing through 183 trips to the plate. He’s looked like one of the sport’s top backstops when healthy, but a trio of fluky injury issues look as if they’ll cost him a good chunk of time.

Reds Plan To Activate Tyler Mahle For Sunday Start

By Steve Adams | July 20, 2022 at 9:24am CDT

The Reds are set to welcome right-hander Tyler Mahle back from the injured list this weekend, as they announced to reporters Wednesday that he’s in line to start Sunday’s game against the visiting Cardinals (Twitter link via Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer). The team also reinstated right-hander Dauri Moreta from the Covid-related injured list and returned righty Ryan Hendrix to Triple-A Louisville.

Mahle, one of the most notable trade candidates on the summer market, hit the injured list with what was deemed a minor shoulder strain earlier this month. The 27-year-old righty said shortly thereafter that he planned to return quickly after the All-Star break, and that will indeed be the case. A Sunday return will give Mahle enough time to make two starts before the Aug. 2 trade deadline, so scouts from opposing clubs will have multiple opportunities to evaluate him on the heels of his recent shoulder issue.

Prior to landing on the injured list, Mahle was trending upward in terms of his performance. The former seventh-rounder got out to a brutal start this season but turned a corner in late May and stringing together a 2.58 ERA over a stretch of seven outings. Dating back to May 1, Mahle has a 3.86 ERA with strikeout and walk rates that fall in line with the standards he set when establishing himself as at least a quality mid-rotation hurler from 2020-21.

While Mahle doesn’t draw as much fanfare as rotation-mate Luis Castillo, he’s quietly built a nice track record at the big league level. Even including a pair of his worst-ever starts earlier this season (combined 15 runs allowed in 7 2/3 frames), Mahle has a 3.94 ERA in 320 innings dating back to the 2020 season. He’s punched out 27.5% of his opponents against an 8.9% walk rate along the way, sitting at 94 mph with his heater and brandishing a splitter and slider that have both graded out as above-average pitches at times. Lately, he’s gravitated more toward the low-spinning splitter — particularly against lefties.

It’s hard not to wonder how Mahle might fare with another club, as his hitter-friendly home park has been a thorn in his side even as he’s found success over the past three seasons. Mahle has a bloated 4.90 ERA and has yielded 1.71 homers per nine innings pitched at Great American Ball Park dating back to 2020. During that same three-year stretch, he’s notched an excellent 2.93 ERA on the road, while yielding an average of just 0.52 homers per nine innings.

Like Castillo, Mahle is controlled not only for the 2022 campaign but also through the 2023 season via arbitration. He’s being paid $5.2MM for the current season and will earn a raise on top of that figure for the 2023 season before hitting the free-agent market in advance of his age-29 campaign.

Reds Activate Mike Moustakas From COVID-IL

By Mark Polishuk | July 18, 2022 at 6:42pm CDT

The Reds made a pair of transactions on the first day of the All-Star break, including activating infielder Mike Moustakas from the COVID-related injured list. Infielder Max Schrock was optioned to Triple-A yesterday, so there was already an open spot on Cincinnati’s active roster.

Moustakas was only placed on the COVID-IL on Thursday, so the veteran will make a relatively quick return in time to start the second half. This marks the third time Moustakas has been on the COVID-related IL this season, with his other two stints lasting a week and just a single day, respectively. A right biceps strain also sent Moustakas to the regular injured list for just a minimum 10-day stretch in April.

While none of these absences are as serious as the heel problems that limited Moustakas to only 62 games last season, the Moose’s 2022 campaign has unfortunately looked a lot like his 2021 campaign — missed time, and a lack of pop at the plate. After Moustakas hit only .208/.282/.372 over 206 plate appearances last season, he has a similar .210/.298/.337 slash line in his first 235 PA this year. There isn’t much to like about Moustakas’ advanced metrics either, as his .287 xwOBA is among the worst in the league.

With the Reds looking to cut payroll, a healthy and productive Moustakas (owed roughly $25.3MM through the end of the 2023 season) might have made an interesting trade chip. Moustakas was still an above-average hitter as recently as 2020, and he was even an All-Star in 2019 as a member of the Brewers. However, his ongoing struggles makes it very unlikely that another team would take on his contract outside of a pure salary-dump scenario, or another swap involving an undesirable contract. Theoretically, a team could offer to take on Moustakas as a sweetener in trade talks for Luis Castillo, though the Reds would probably prefer to get the maximum prospect return for Castillo rather than dilute the package just to cut salary.

Reds Place Dauri Moreta On Injured List, Select Ryan Hendrix

By Mark Polishuk | July 16, 2022 at 3:26pm CDT

The Reds placed right-hander Dauri Moreta on the injured list, and selected the contract of right-hander Ryan Hendrix from Triple-A. No official designation was given for Moreta’s placement, so it would seem to be related to COVID-19.

Cincinnati is swapping one second-year righty for another, as both Moreta and Hendrix made their big league debuts in 2021. Moreta tossed 3 2/3 innings in the majors last year and then 26 2/3 frames this season, with a 7.09 ERA to show for his 2022 work. The long ball is the chief reason for Moreta’s struggles, as he has allowed nine home runs over his 26 2/3 innings.

Hendrix’s career resume is essentially the opposite of Moreta’s, with 31 2/3 innings in his rookie season and then only 3 1/3 innings in 2022. Unfortunately for Hendrix, he has also had trouble keeping the ball in the park, with eight homers allowed over his short time as a Major League hurler. He got a brief look with the Reds back in April before being designated for assignment and then outrighted to Triple-A.

Astros Among Teams With Interest In Luis Castillo

By Anthony Franco | July 15, 2022 at 4:52pm CDT

Luis Castillo is among the league’s highest-profile trade candidates. The hard-throwing righty is having another excellent season, and with a year and a half of remaining club control, he’s a good bet to move from the 34-55 Reds to a contender in the next couple weeks.

Virtually every win-now team figures to inquire on Castillo, who’d upgrade any rotation. The Dodgers, Yankees, Blue Jays, Cardinals, Mariners, and Twins have all been linked to tied to the Cincinnati starter in recent weeks. Erik Boland of Newsday (Twitter link) and Sweeny Murti of WFAN (on Twitter) both report the Astros are also in the mix. Jon Heyman of the New York Post adds that teams like the Mets and Padres, who’d been linked to Castillo early in the process, are likelier to prioritize adding offensive help than an impact starter.

That said, even teams with enviable rotation depth figure to at least kick the tires on Castillo over the coming weeks. Houston’s interest is indicative of that, as they have arguably the best starting pitching outlook in the game. Astros starters rank second in the majors in ERA (3.15) and innings pitched (505), while they’re ninth in strikeout percentage (23.6%). That’s in spite of zero contributions from Lance McCullers Jr., perhaps the team’s top pitcher in 2021, as he’s rehabbed from a forearm issue.

Few teams would be able to comfortably withstand an injury to a pitcher of McCullers’ caliber, but Houston’s rotation has thrived nevertheless. All six of the Astros starters to eclipse 30 innings this season have an ERA of 4.08 or lower. Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez own sub-3.00 marks. Cristian Javier and Luis Garcia are in the mid-3.00s with strong strikeout totals, while Jake Odorizzi (3.38) and José Urquidy (4.08) have solid results despite lacking huge whiff totals.

With McCullers also expected to return at some point after the All-Star Break, the Astros certainly don’t need to add another starter. Castillo’s performance, though, is impressive enough they’ll join virtually every other contender in checking in with Reds’ general manager Nick Krall and his staff. Despite pitching in a hitter-friendly home ballpark, Castillo has a 3.49 ERA with an above-average 26.8% strikeout rate and an elite 55.2% grounder percentage over the past three and a half seasons. That includes a personal-best 2.77 ERA through 13 starts this year. Castillo’s swinging strike and ground-ball numbers are down a touch, but he’s still been better than league average in both regards.

Castillo has been especially excellent of late, pitching at peak form as the August 2 deadline draws nearer. He’s allowed one or fewer runs in each of his past four outings, striking out 33 against nine walks over his last 27 innings. Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic examined Castillo’s strong recent run this morning, noting that the right-hander worked with the Cincinnati coaching staff to tweak the grip on his four-seam fastball this year.

In addition to his excellent results, the 29-year-old would be an eminently affordable pickup for acquiring teams. He’s playing this season on a $7.35MM salary, approximately $2.9MM of which will remain to be paid out after the deadline. He should be in line for a decent arbitration raise next winter, but even a 2023 salary in the $12-15MM range would be a strong bargain for a pitcher of his caliber.

Cincinnati is widely expected to field offers on both Castillo and rotation mate Tyler Mahle, who is also in his penultimate year of club control. Andy Martino of SNY reports that talks on at least the former have yet to get underway in much detail, suggesting those discussions figure to accelerate after the upcoming amateur draft. The Reds are sure to set a lofty asking price once discussions begin in earnest. Heyman wrote earlier this week that Cincinnati was looking for one of the Yankees’ top shortstop prospects, Anthony Volpe or Oswald Peraza, to get Castillo talks underway. Heyman suggested last night that New York remains firmly against parting with either player, even after losing Luis Severino to the injured list due to a lat strain.

« Previous Page

Load More Posts

Show all

Headlines

Reds Rumors

Navigation

MLBTR INFO

Connect