Braves Listening On Shelby Miller; Interested In A.J. Pollock, Jorge Soler
6:56pm: The Braves continue to ask the Diamondbacks for A.J. Pollock, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (links to Twitter). After the D-backs initially rejected Atlanta’s proposal of Miller for Pollock, the Braves came back with an offer of Miller and right-hander Arodys Vizcaino for Pollock and minor league right-hander Aaron Blair, which Arizona also rejected.
Clearly, while the Braves are in a state of rebuilding, there’s interest on their behalf in adding a piece that can help them in 2017, when much of the team’s young stable of pitching prospects will be emerging onto the Major League scene. Both Pollock and Soler (mentioned in the previous update) fit that bill, with Soler possessing even more club control than Pollock, who is a free agent after three seasons (the same as Miller).
6:40pm: Shelby Miller‘s name is one of the most popular on the rumor circuit at present, with recent reports indicating that as many as 20 teams have checked in on the Atlanta right-hander. Jon Heyman reported yesterday that the Yankees, Marlins, Giants, Dodgers and Diamondbacks are all among the teams to have expressed interest, and further details on the Miller market are beginning to emerge.
Today, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reports that the Braves are highly interested in Cubs right fielder Jorge Soler, but right-hander Julio Teheran probably isn’t enough to pry Soler away from Chicago (links to Twitter). One person familiar with Atlanta’s thinking also told Crasnick that the Red Sox could be a match, though that tweet preceded tonight’s record-setting agreement with David Price.
Meanwhile, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that the Cubs, Diamondbacks, Dodgers and Giants are the teams that appear to be the most interested in Miller, but the Braves might be waiting until Price’s deal becomes official and Zack Greinke makes a decision before ultimately determining whether or not they should move Miller. Greinke is said to be choosing between San Francisco and L.A., so it stands to reason that whichever club loses out on Greinke could show an increased willingness to part with talent to land Miller.
Heyman hears that one name that’s unlikely to be included in a Miller deal is Joc Pederson (Twitter link), The Dodgers have “made clear” that they’d prefer to deal from their deep well of prospects as opposed to part with Major League ready talent such as Pederson, whose name isn’t involved in trade discussions between the two sides at this time.
The 25-year-old Miller is set to hit arbitration for the first time this winter and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $4.9MM next season. He’s controllable for three more years and is coming off a fine 2015 campaign in which he recorded a 3.02 ERA with 7.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and a 47.7 ground-ball rate in 205 2/3 innings. The ERA, ground-ball rate and innings total each ranked as a career-high for the former first-round pick.
Latest On Johnny Cueto’s Asking Price
10:46pm: Arizona’s interest in Cueto was and perhaps still is rather intense, according to reports. The organization sent a delegation including GM Dave Stewart, chief baseball officer Tony La Russa, and president Derrick Hall to the Dominican Republic to meet with the righty, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports on Twitter. And the D’backs still have interest after the initial offer was rebuffed, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter), who adds that the club “realize[s]” that Cueto can command more than a $20MM AAV over six years after Jordan Zimmermann got $22MM annually for five.
Of course, the Diamondbacks aren’t alone in pursuing the veteran. Among the other teams to reach out to his representatives are the Dodgers, Giants, Red Sox, and Cubs, per Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. That group of large-market contenders has always figured to factor at the top of the free agent pitching pool.
11:52am: Johnny Cueto reportedly rejected a six-year, $120MM contract offer from the D-Backs recently, and ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick now reports that teams in the market for Cueto believe he’s seeking $140-160MM in total — a contract that would vault him into Jon Lester territory (Twitter link). According to Crasnick, the Diamondbacks initially planned to offer Cueto about $110MM but upped their offer to $120MM late in talks (Twitter link). The increase, however, wasn’t enough to get the job done.
It would seem, then, that Cueto’s camp is seeking a contract that doesn’t offer any sort of reduced rate due to the minor elbow issues that plagued Cueto this summer or due to his late-season struggles. Cueto was masterful in his first four outings with the Royals, pitching to a 1.80 ERA in 30 innings, including a complete-game shutout of the Tigers. However, he limped to a 6.49 ERA over his final nine starts (51 1/3 innings). There were a few quality starts mixed in toward the end, but many speculated as to whether Cueto was fully healthy. Cueto and Salvador Perez reportedly worked to adjust where Perez would set the target for Cueto’s pitches, but he still had mixed results from that point forth.
Cueto’s postseason was a true mixed bag — one so-so start, one meltdown and a pair of dominant gems in pivotal games. His final outing — a one-run complete game over the Mets in Game 2 of the World Series — was a nice final impression to make as he headed into free agency. Nevertheless, Cueto’s overall body of work following his mild elbow flare-up and trade to the Royals saw him yield 58 earned runs in 106 1/3 innings (4.91 ERA) with a 75-to-27 K/BB ratio and 118 hits (13 homers) allowed.
None of that is to say that Cueto can’t or shouldn’t secure a hefty payday, of course. Despite those issues, the perception of Cueto has remained that he’s one of the three or four best starters on the market (depending on one’s feelings about Jordan Zimmremann), and we at MLBTR still projected him to clear $100MM with relative ease (though the $120MM he rejected already surpassed our most recent $115MM figure). Prior to those issues, a Lester-esque contract was a perfectly reasonable expectation for Cueto, and the possibility that he exceeded that figure was certainly present. Cueto, after all, logged a 2.48 ERA in 677 1/3 innings from 2011-14 despite pitching his home games in one of baseball’s most hitter-friendly parks, and he carried a similarly elite 2.62 ERA and a 120-to-29 K/BB ratio through 130 2/3 innings with the Reds this season.
Cueto is a clear front-line starter when healthy and at his best, and he’s entering the open market heading into his age-30 season, having not yet even celebrated his 30th birthday as of this writing. That he’s already received a $120MM offer suggests that the demand for his services is strong, which certainly plays into his camp’s favor as the Winter Meetings approach.
Shelby Miller Drawing Significant Trade Interest
Braves right-hander Shelby Miller is one of the hottest names on the trade market, reports Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, with as many as 20 teams having checked in on the young right-hander. There’s no indication that anything is close at this time, Heyman notes, and the Braves are said to be asking a huge haul in return for Miller, who has three years of affordable club control remaining.
The Dodgers, Yankees, Marlins, Diamondbacks and Giants have all shown interest in Miller to this point. According to Heyman, the Braves asked the Yankees for right-hander Luis Severino in exchange for Miller, and the Marlins were asked to part with outfielder Marcell Ozuna and other pieces in order to pry Miller away from Atlanta. Those steep asking prices line up with previous reports pertaining to the Braves’ talks with the Diamondbacks, when they reportedly asked that Arizona part with star center fielder A.J. Pollock. (Those talks didn’t gain traction.)
Miller, acquired alongside minor league righty Tyrell Jenkins in exchange for Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden, is coming off a strong debut season with the Braves. The former first-rounder logged a 3.02 ERA with 7.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and a career-best 47.7 percent ground-ball rate in 205 1/3 innings (the innings total was also a career high). Miller won only six games due to Atlanta’s bullpen struggles and a lack of run support, but that actually enhances is value in a way. Teams won’t be deterred by a poor win-loss record when evaluating Miller, but the lack of wins will suppress his arbitration earnings, as the arb process still factors in pitcher wins/losses rather heavily. Miller’s strong body of work as a whole to this point in his career still makes for a $4.9MM projection from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, but the number assuredly would’ve been greater had his record aligned more accordingly with his ERA.
One factor that clubs may consider, though, is that Miller’s overall numbers are propped up by what was an unsustainable run of sub-2.00 ERA production through the season’s first two months. From June 1 through season’s end, Miller posted a quality (but less impressive) 3.77 ERA with 8.0 K/9 against 3.6 BB/9 across 138 1/3 innings. Miller’s strikeout rates and control numbers have fluctuated somewhat throughout his career, but low BABIP totals and seemingly good fortune in terms of homer-to-flyball rate have led to a large discrepancy between his 3.22 ERA and metrics such as xFIP (4.08) and SIERA (4.10). Miller’s BABIP has always been below the league average, though, as has his HR/FB, suggesting that some of the perceived fortune could be more skill-based in his case.
Ultimately, the value placed upon him in a potential trade (if he is moved at all) will be dependent on whether the club places more emphasis on his ERA or on his secondary stats. Even if Miller is more of a mid- or upper-3.00 ERA type of pitcher, three seasons of control over him would still come with significant value, so it’s logical to see Atlanta placing a sizable asking price on Miller when listening to offers from interested parties.
Rosenthal On Cardinals, Cubs, Dodgers, Cueto, Ross
Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports has a new notes column that contains quite a few Hot Stove related items. Some highlights from his latest piece…
- There’s a belief in the industry that the Cardinals‘ new television deal — which begins in 2018, when it will net the team $50MM and continue to rise to about $86MM, per Forbes — could allow the team to sign two premium free agents. Rosenthal adds, though, that the Cardinals could nonetheless be uncomfortable making the top bid for David Price or Jason Heyward and might be “reluctant” to commit the type of dollars Chris Davis will command.
- Meanwhile, the Cubs probably only have the financial firepower to add about $20MM to their annual payroll this winter. Sources tell Rosenthal that the club’s payroll will be in the $130-140MM range for the foreseeable future. Based on the numbers at Cot’s Contracts and MLBTR’s arbitration projections, the Cubs are a bit over $110MM in 2016 when including league-minimum players. That leaves some wiggle room for two adds, but probably not if one of those players is Price or Zack Greinke. Rosenthal notes that the Cubs could add a young pitcher via trade, possibly for Jorge Soler. That wouldn’t impact payroll much in the near-term and would free the club to pursue Heyward or Alex Gordon to reduce the team’s overall strikeout rate (and improve the outfield defense).
- The Dodgers have at least discussed the possibility of signing both Greinke and Price internally, according to Rosenthal, but they’re unlikely to go that route. Even the Dodgers and their seemingly limitless budget aren’t keen on the notion of paying three starters in the vicinity of $30MM annually, and they already have one such pitcher in Clayton Kershaw.
- That J.A. Happ landed a $36MM total from the Blue Jays could serve to increase the leverage that teams like the Indians and Rays have in talks for their starting pitchers. One exec told Rosenthal that “mediocre pitching” now costs a minimum of $30MM total. While that’s true enough, I don’t know that the Happ signing necessarily brought that realization about. We’ve seen players like Jason Hammel, Jason Vargas and Ricky Nolasco clear the $30MM barrier in recent seasons, after all, and Happ’s final push in Pittsburgh shows he’s at least capable of pitching at a high level if those adjustments can be sustained.
- The D-Backs‘ interest in Johnny Cueto stems, in part, from the fact that he’s not tied to draft pick compensation. Arizona selects 13th overall next season and values that pick, Rosenthal writes. The team is reluctant to part with one of the top overall unprotected picks and probably isn’t likely to part with it for a second-tier starter (e.g. Jeff Samardzija, Wei-Yin Chen). Arizona has already been tied to both Mike Leake and Kenta Maeda, either of whom could bolster the rotation without harming next year’s draft.
- The Padres are still receiving plenty of interest in right-hander Tyson Ross but are only willing to move him for a “monster package,” as Rosenthal terms it. Ross is controlled for two more seasons, and MLBTR projects him to earn $10MM in 2016.
- Prior to Colby Rasmus accepting their qualifying offer, the Astros considered making a run at Brett Gardner or a similar type of player to fill the club’s leadoff slot, per Rosenthal. Now, however, they’ll likely use Jose Altuve there as the primary option again in 2016.
Quick Hits: Cueto, Cano, Park, Tribe, Colon
Diamondbacks ownership sees Johnny Cueto as a “special case” who is worth a franchise-altering investment, according to FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal (links to Twitter). The team’s six-year, $120MM offer to Cueto would’ve been above the D’Backs stated comfort zone of a $15MM-$18MM average annual salary for a pitcher, yet Rosenthal notes that Arizona has been willing to stretch payroll in recent years. The D’Backs gave their largest contract in club history to an unproven rookie in Yasmany Tomas, and they were also prepared to give Masahiro Tanaka a huge contract after posting a bid to negotiate with him in the 2013-14 offseason. Cueto, meanwhile, rejected Arizona’s offer in order to further explore his options. With Jordan Zimmermann now off the market, it’s indeed possible that Cueto could perhaps surpass that offer from the Snakes. Here’s some more from around baseball…
- The Mariners privately acknowledge that Robinson Cano will inevitably be moved from second to first base, according to Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune (Twitter link). The question now may be how many more seasons can Cano remain at the keystone. Cano just turned 33 last month and his defensive metrics (-7.3 UZR/150, minus-9 Defensive Runs Saved) plummeted. Since Mark Trumbo could be traded or non-tendered, the M’s may have an opening at first as early as 2016, though I’d guess the club is probably more likely to give Cano at least one more year at second and obtain a short-term first baseman if Trumbo is indeed moved.
- Byung-ho Park is set to arrive in Minneapolis today to continue negotiating, and perhaps finalize, a contract with the Twins. Park spoke to Korean media (including Yonhap News) before departing, saying “there are some things we need to go over with the club. I hope to be able to return with a positive result….I am approaching (the upcoming contract talks) with a positive mind.” Park also discussed transitioning to MLB, speaking to former teammate Jung Ho Kang and his willingness to be a designated hitter in Minnesota if that’s how the club feels he is best used.
- The reliever market is widely expected to heat up this week, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick explains in a series of tweets. Part of the logjam has been due to the fact that two star closers (Aroldis Chapman and Mark Melancon) are on the trade block, so teams are exploring trade options before looking at free agents. Over a third of league is currently looking for relief pitching help — Crasnick lists the Astros, Athletics, Blue Jays, Braves, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Mets, Nationals, Pirates, Red Sox, Royals and Tigers.
- Several bits of Indians roster speculation are discussed by Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer in his latest reader mailbag. Highlights include Hoynes’ belief that Lonnie Chisenhall will still be with the Tribe next season rather than be traded or non-tendered this winter, doubt that Jay Bruce would be a legitimate Indians trade target and the idea that Wilin Rosario might be of some interest to add pop to Cleveland’s lineup.
- Would a reunion with Bartolo Colon be a good move for the Athletics? Joe Stiglich of CSNBayArea.com looks at the pros and cons Oakland faces in signing the veteran right-hander.
Johnny Cueto Rejects Six-Year/$120MM Offer From Diamondbacks
10:00pm: The Diamondbacks’ offer was for six years and $120MM, MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert reports. The $20MM average annual value of the rejected offer already surpasses the $15MM-$18MM range cited by Rosenthal.
6:48pm: D’Backs GM Dave Stewart tells Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic that he also visited Cueto in the Dominican Republic in addition to meeting with Dixon, and that Cueto already turned down one contract offer from the club. Stewart said the D’Backs are still interested in Cueto and understood why the initial offer was rejected. “When you’ve still got the two big guys who haven’t done anything yet, [David] Price and [Zack] Greinke, you kind of want to wait,” Stewart said. “Depending on how [Dixon] sees his client, and he probably sees his client above [Jordan] Zimmermann, it puts you in a situation where you want to wait and see what happens.”
Though Stewart didn’t specifically comment on Rosenthal’s reported gap in Cueto’s asking price and the Diamondbacks’ comfort zone, he did imply that his team may have to spend more in order to land the righty.
“I guess ultimately that decision is going to be made by ownership, if we can go there,” Stewart said. “Having a conversation with him gave us an idea of what’s going to happen and what he’s thinking. We’re going to have to wait and see how this thing plays out.”
1:18pm: The Diamondbacks met with Johnny Cueto‘s agent last week, sources tell Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (on Twitter). The expectation, however, is that Cueto’s price will exceed with Arizona is comfortable with paying. The D’Backs want to spend roughly $15MM-$18MM on a free agent starter, while Cueto figures to get more than $20MM per year (link).
Earlier this month, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney reported that the D’Backs were discussing Cueto internally, so it seems that they have at least taken the next step by reaching out to agent Bryce Dixon. Pitching names like Shelby Miller, Yovani Gallardo and John Lackey have been linked to Arizona via trade and free agency, but those arms would come with a much more modest price tag than Cueto. Names like Jeff Samardzija and Kenta Maeda represent some of the pricier options that have been mentioned as possible targets for Arizona.
There have been whispers about Cueto’s injured elbow affecting his market, but in a recent interview, Dixon made the case that if Cueto had been hurt, he wouldn’t have been able to deliver such strong results for the Royals in two of his postseason outings. Overall, though, Cueto did not give the Royals exactly what they expected when they acquired him over the summer. In 13 regular starts, Cueto posted a 4.76 ERA. He also pitched poorly in two of his four postseason outings.
Recently, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes ranked Cueto as the offseason’s No. 8 free agent and pegged him for a five-year, $115MM deal.
NL Notes: Reyes, Pirates, D’Backs, Davis
Rockies shortstop Jose Reyes has been charged with abuse of a family or household member, the Associated Press reports (via SI.com). The 32-year-old has entered a plea of not guilty to the charges, which stem from his recent arrest in Hawaii for alleged violent acts against his wife during an argument. As explained in the linked post, the commissioner’s office will be watched closely as it applies the newly agreed-upon domestic abuse protocol for the first time to a highly-paid, high-profile player.
As we wait for further information in that disappointing and concerning situation, let’s take a look at some other links relating to National League clubs:
- The Pirates are “definitely listening” on all players entering their final year of contract control, ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark reports on Twitter. Closer Mark Melancon, second baseman Neil Walker, and first baseman Pedro Alvarez are all prime candidates to be dealt, says Stark. It certainly will be fascinating to see how the team proceeds with those notable players, including what they seek (and potentially obtain) in return as well as what other moves the ultimate decisions set up.
- The Diamondbacks are said to be looking into a variety of options to add starting pitching, including cashing in some young position player talent via trade. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic breaks down the considerations facing GM Dave Stewart and co. Piecoro gathers the thoughts of numerous talent evaluators in the interesting piece, focusing his analysis on the timing of the team’s assets. Arizona is still testing several possibilities, he reports, but it sounds rather likely that some kind of hitting-for-pitching deal will come together at some point this winter.
- Bernie Miklasz of 101Sports.com takes a look at the Cardinals‘ decision-making process regarding free agent first baseman/outfielder Chris Davis. There’s a fit on paper, writes the veteran journalist, but he says it would rate as a surprise if St. Louis emerges as a serious bidder — especially if the ask goes past five years (as it almost assuredly does).
- If those links don’t have enough interesting reading to get you through turkey day, check out these two recent pieces on Fangraphs: Brewers GM David Stearns spoke with David Laurila about a variety of interesting and relevant topics. And Jeff Sullivan assesses the trade value of all-world Reds closer Aroldis Chapman.
Coaching Notes: McGwire, Henley, Magadan, Rowand
Let’s catch up on the latest coaching signings as teams finalize their field staffs:
- One-time superstar slugger Mark McGwire is set to join the Padres as the bench coach alongside new manager Andy Green, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com recently reports. (Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune first reported as a strong possibility.) McGwire has worked as a hitting coach with the Cardinals and Dodgers over the past six years. The 52-year-old’s ascension to a bench coach role suggests that a managerial opportunity might not be far off.
- The Nationals have brought back Bobby Henley as the team’s third base coach, per a club announcement. Henley was set loose along with the rest of the staff (and manager Matt Williams) at the end of a disappointing 2015 campaign, but he’ll join hitting coach Rick Schu in reprising their roles. Most of skipper Dusty Baker’s staff is now set.
- Dave Magadan has been announced as the Diamondbacks‘ new hitting coach. A 16-year MLB veteran, Magadan has previously worked in the Padres, Red Sox, and Rangers organizations, most recently serving as the top batting instructor for Texas.
- Former big leaguer Aaron Rowand will serve as a minor league outfield and baserunning instructor, the White Sox have announced. Rowand, 38, retired after the 2011 season. He’ll return to the place where he started his professional and MLB career.
Pirates Acquire Allen Webster From Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks announced that they’ve traded right-hander Allen Webster to the Pirates in exchange for cash considerations. Webster was designated for assignment last week.
Webster, 26 in February, was once considered a consensus Top 100 prospect. The former 18th-round pick (Dodgers, 2008) has been involved in a pair of notable trades, first going to Boston from L.A. as part of the Adrian Gonzalez/Carl Crawford blockbuster and then being traded to the D-Backs last winter in the Wade Miley deal.
Webster displayed a penchant for strikeouts early in his minor league career but has struggled more recently, both at the upper levels of the minors and in the Major Leagues with Boston and Arizona. Control, in particular, has become a problem for Webster, who has averaged 4.9 walks per nine innings in parts of three big league seasons and walked more batters (20) than he struck out (17) in 31 innings with the D-Backs this year. All told, Webster has a 6.13 ERA in 120 1/3 big league innings.
When his prospect status was at its peak, Baseball America wrote that Webster showed the “best pure stuff of anyone in the Red Sox system,” praising a fastball that ranged from 93-98 mph with good sink as well as a plus changeup. BA noted, however, that while Webster’s “outrageous” stuff came with top-of-the-rotation potential, an inability to command his fastball and questions about his confidence were enough to wonder if he’d ever reach that ceiling.
Certainly, the Pirates will hope that realization is still possible, though Webster needn’t become more than a solid middle reliever for this to look like a shrewd pickup in hindsight. He’s out of minor league options, however, so he’ll need to stick with the Bucs out of camp next spring or again be exposed to waivers.
Diamondbacks Avoid Arbitration With Matt Reynolds
The Diamondbacks have avoided arbitration with lefty Matt Reynolds, Zach Buchanan of AZCentral.com reports on Twitter. Reynolds will receive $675K next season, with a $25K bonus if he makes 55 appearances.
That number falls a bit shy of the $800K that MLBTR projected Reynolds to earn. Of course, the southpaw had seemed a plausible non-tender candidate even at that relatively low salary level, so agreeing to a slightly lower rate helps increase the likelihood that he’ll get a major league opportunity in 2016.
Reynolds, 31, pitched 13 2/3 major league innings last season for the D’backs, allowing seven earned runs and striking out 18 batters against seven walks. He had missed all of the 2014 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in the midst of a promising 2013 campaign.