Guardians, Phillip Diehl Agree To Minor League Contract
The Guardians and left-hander Phillip Diehl are in agreement on a minor league contract, tweets Robert Murray of FanSided. The Dynamic Sports Group client will be in big league camp this spring.
Diehl, 28, has appeared in parts of three minor league seasons but tallied just 19 innings. He most recently spent time with the Reds in 2022, though he was tagged for seven runs in 5 2/3 innings in that brief stint. Diehl has never had an extended look in the big leagues and has been quite homer-prone in his brief looks with Colorado and Cincinnati, ultimately serving up 20 runs in his 19 MLB frames.
A 27th-round pick by the Yankees back in 2016, Diehl has fared much better in the minor leagues, where he carries a 3.50 ERA with plus strikeout and walk rates of 29.8% and 7.3%, respectively. The 2022 season was a struggle for him at all levels (5.90 ERA in 39 2/3 Triple-A innings), but as recently as 2021 he turned in 54 2/3 innings of 2.47 ERA ball with a hefty 33% strikeout rate and an excellent 5.6% walk rate for the Reds’ Triple-A affiliate in Louisville.
As things stand, Sam Hentges is the only lefty who’s considered a lock in the Cleveland bullpen. Other options on the 40-man roster include Konnor Pilkington, Joey Cantillo and Tim Herrin — although Pilkington and Cantillo have both been developed as starting pitchers. Former Giants and D-backs southpaw Caleb Baragar was signed to a minor league deal and invited to spring training earlier in the offseason, and the Guards also invited 2019 32nd-rounder Andrew Misiaszek to camp. Diehl will join that group when pitchers and catchers report later this month, and if he doesn’t make the roster out of camp, he’ll give Cleveland a lefty with a bit more experience than many of their in-house options.
Big Hype Prospects: Cowser, Bleday, Alvarez, Outman, Steer
Pitchers and catchers report in 10 days, at which point we’ll have more to discuss in virtually every facet of the sport. Until then, let’s review more prospects tangentially connected to the news. Today’s episode coincidentally includes a number of left-handed hitters with holes in their swing.
Five BHPs In The News
Colton Cowser, 22, OF, BAL (AAA)
(A+/AA/AAA) 626 PA, 19 HR, 18 SB, .278/.406/.469
In a recent radio spot, Orioles general manager Mike Elias indicated a belief Cowser will debut later this season. A recent review of the Baltimore farm system published by FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen offers modest cause for concern. There are now questions about Cowser’s ability to perform against low-in-the-zone breaking balls and inside fastballs. Those are two very large holes for a big league hitter, indicating Cowser might require a carefully managed role once he is promoted. The lower-half stiffness noted by Longenhagen is a new issue and might relate to the workload Cowser shouldered last season. In order to improve and adjust, Cowser could require a long stint in Triple-A.
JJ Bleday, 25, OF, MIA (MLB)
(MLB) 238 PA, 5 HR, 4 SB, .167/.277/.309
The left-handed hitting slugger has two massive issues to overcome – a weakness against up-and-away fastballs and a pulled, fly-ball-oriented approach lacking in high-quality exit velocities. Both issues were on full display in Bleday’s first season, and he has used up his rookie eligibility. Bleday is currently expected to compete with Jesus Sanchez and Bryan De La Cruz for playing time in left field. Unless he improves upon both shortcomings, the former fourth-overall pick will be limited to heavily scripted usage against right-handed sinkerballers. Achieving such an adjustment will likely require a new swing and a return to Triple-A to digest the changes.
Francisco Alvarez, 21, C, NYM (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 411 PA, 27 HR, .260/.374/.511
A burly backstop who frequently draws hitting comps to Salvador Perez, Alvarez will need to play his way onto an Opening Day roster that already includes catchers Omar Narvaez and Tomas Nido. While neither player is expected to block Alvarez, he also has a second pathway onto the roster – designated hitter. As we learned yesterday, the Mets are carrying a veteran tandem of Daniel Vogelbach, Darin Ruf, and Tommy Pham in part to leave a door open for Alvarez and Brett Baty (covered last week) to get at-bats as part of the revolving door at DH.
As a hitter, Alvarez appears primed for the Show. There is near-term concern about his rate of contact and occasional lapses into over-selectivity. Even so, these are small issues to polish rather than fatal flaws.
James Outman, 25, OF, LAD (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 559 PA, 31 HR, 13 SB, .294/.393/.586
Although the Dodgers have made peace with crossing the first luxury tax threshold, they’ve done little to fortify their left field mix. Outman will compete with the likes of Chris Taylor and Jason Heyward for a regular role this spring. Outman’s approach could serve as a roadmap for Bleday. The left-handed hitting Outman makes frequently pulled, fly ball contact, but he isn’t nearly as extreme as the similarly built Marlins outfielder. Outman also consistently delivers line drives which allows him to post above-average BABIPs. Toss in above-average plate discipline, and he has a chance to hit for average, OBP, and power despite expectations of a 30 percent strikeout rate.
Spencer Steer, 25, 3B, CIN (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 427 PA, 23 HR, 4 SB, .274/.364/.515
Acquired as part of the return in the Tyler Mahle trade, Steer looks the part of a future second-division starter or frequently-used utility man. The Reds are in a year of transition with Steer eyeing a role as the regular third baseman. Long-term, he’ll need to contend with the likes of Elly De La Cruz, Edwin Arroyo, Noelvi Marte, and Matt McLain – whichever among those doesn’t take over at shortstop. Steer is considered a well-rounded hitter with a feel for contact, above-average plate discipline, and an ability to pop mistakes. The cozy confines of Great American Ballpark should help his power production. One question he’ll need to answer relates to his consistency of contact quality. In a 108-plate appearance trial last season, Steer posted an 84.7-mph average and 104.4-mph max exit velocity, which were well below Major League average.
Three More
George Valera, CLE (22): After managing a league-average batting line at Triple-A last season, Valera is on pace to debut at some point in 2023. He won’t be making the Opening Day roster due to a recent hamate injury. Such injuries are hard to predict, as the recovery is speedy in some cases, but some players are left with lesser bat control for weeks or months after returning. Occasionally, as with Alex Kirilloff, a secondary issue can linger indefinitely.
Kyle Stowers, BAL (25): Currently in the outfield and designated hitter mix for Baltimore, Stowers has a brief window to cement a role as a righty-masher before a flood of high-ceiling prospects joins the roster. Stowers is patient, strikeout-prone, and powerful, rendering him a Three True Outcomes option. Such hitters are volatile as they’re heavily reliant on hitting home runs at just the right time.
Grayson Rodriguez, BAL (23): General manager Mike Elias reiterated his belief that Rodriguez will make the Opening Day rotation. There’s still the messy part of actually navigating Spring Training, especially since Rodriguez’s stuff had declined at last look, though he was returning from a lat injury at the time. Even the September version of Rodriguez looked like a future rotation mainstay.
Guardians Promote JT Maguire To Coaching Staff
The Guardians have named JT Maguire as their new outfield coach, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports. Maguire has been working in Cleveland’s organization for the last five years, and this will be his first official role with the big league team.
The 36-year-old Maguire spent six years in the college coaching ranks before making a relatively quick rise through the Guardians’ system. First hired as a bench coach for Cleveland’s rookie league club in 2019, the canceled 2020 minor league season saw Maguire coach at the Major League alternate training site before moving onto a bench coach role with Triple-A Columbus in 2021. The Guardians then shifted Maguire to a coordinator role, overseeing the organization’s outfield and baserunning efforts.
This experience made Maguire a logical choice to step into the Guards’ outfield coaching role left vacant when Kyle Hudson left the club in December to become the new Red Sox first base coach. Given the number of homegrown products in Cleveland’s outfield mix, Maguire is already quite familiar with such players as Steven Kwan, Oscar Gonzalez, Will Benson, and the next wave of prospects who might receive more MLB exposure in 2023.
Guardians’ Prospect George Valera Recovering From Hand Surgery
Top Guardians outfield prospect George Valera will likely be behind schedule this spring after recently undergoing surgery on the hamate bone in his right hand, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports.
The 22-year-old Valera has ranked among Cleveland’s top prospects for several years and has landed among the game’s top 100 prospects on rankings at Baseball America, MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus in each of the past two offseasons. Valera appeared in the 2022 Futures Game and climbed as high as Triple-A last season, making him a relatively near-term option for the Guardians — though this surgery will slow that trajectory a bit.
Valera split the 2022 season between Double-A and Triple-A, slashing .264/.367/.470 (129 wRC+) in 387 plate appearances at the former and batting .221/.324/.448 (103 wRC+) in 179 trips to the plate with the latter. He was playing in the Dominican Winter League this summer, but the hand has been problematic — evidenced by a tepid .171/.244/.220 output in 11 games there.
The Guardians haven’t formally announced Valera’s surgery, nor has the team provided an update on his expected recovery period. Hamate fractures and the subsequent surgeries typically sideline hitters for at least four weeks but can require an absence upwards of two months in length.
There’s no immediate spot in the Cleveland outfield for Valera, though with a full, healthy and productive spring he’d have had a chance to force his way into the mix. Third-place Rookie of the Year finisher Steven Kwan has left field locked down, and while Myles Straw‘s bat left plenty to be desired in 2022, his elite defense and the contract extension he inked last spring both make him the clear option in center field. In right field, 25-year-old Oscar Gonzalez figures to get the nod after surprising with a .296/.321/.461 batting line and 11 home runs in 382 trips to the plate as a rookie in 2022.
Valera secured a spot on the Cleveland 40-man roster over the 2021-22 offseason once he’d have become eligible for the Rule 5 draft. He’ll be going into his second minor league option year and seems likely to start next season in Triple-A if he’s ready for Opening Day.
Astros Have Interviewed Guardians Assistant GM James Harris
The Astros have spoken to Guardians assistant general manager James Harris about their vacant GM position, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter link). Heyman calls Harris, Braves VP of scouting Dana Brown and former Giants GM Bobby Evans as three of the finalists for the post. It’s not clear how many names are still in the running, though former Marlins president of baseball operations Michael Hill has withdrawn his name from consideration.
Harris has been with Cleveland since 2016, when he was hired away from the Pirates organization to serve as the team’s director of player development. Prior to that, he’d spent a season as a special assistant to baseball operations with the Pirates and several prior years working with the NFL’s Philadelphia Eagles and the University of Oregon’s football program. Over the past several seasons, he’s risen from director level to vice president to assistant GM in Cleveland. The 2022 season was his first following that promotion to assistant general manager.
Houston has been in the market for a new general manager since owner Jim Crane surprisingly made the decision to move on from now-former GM James Click following a World Series win. Reported friction between Crane and Click began to mount late in the season, and Click rejected what was widely regarded as a token one-year extension offer, prompting the formal split between the two parties. Assistant GM Scott Powers, who’d been hired by Click in Jan. 2022, was fired not long after Click’s departure.
Since that time, Crane has taken a sizable role in baseball operations, receiving input from remaining assistant GMs Andrew Ball, Bill Firkus and Charles Cook, in addition to special assistant Jeff Bagwell. There’s seemingly been no urgency to make a new hire to the GM’s chair — the vast majority of the team’s offseason dealings have already been completed — and the team hasn’t commented publicly on when a new hire might be made. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported over the weekend that the aforementioned Brown is the current favorite for the job, but there are clearly still multiple candidates in the running.
MLBTR Poll: American League Central Favorite
The American League Central has had three different winners in the past three years. The Twins took the top spot in both 2019 and the shortened 2020 season but have since seen injuries hamper them significantly in the past two campaigns. A resurgent White Sox club took over in 2021, making the playoffs for a second consecutive year for the first time in franchise history. Many thought those two clubs would be battling it out in 2022 but a young Guardians team pulled off a surprise upset as both the Twins and Sox were snakebit by poor health. During that time, both the Royals and Tigers have been struggling to come out of rebuilds.
With just over three weeks until pitchers and catchers report, how much has the picture changed this offseason? There’s are still a few unsigned free agents and some trades could always change the picture, but let’s take a look at where things stand now.
Cleveland Guardians – 2022 Record: 92-70, projected 2023 fWAR: 45.1
The Guardians were the youngest team in baseball last year and expectations were fairly modest at this point one year ago. However, they snuck up on everyone and took the crown. Many will debate whether it was sustainable or a fluke, but they’ve gone into the offseason in a good position to repeat. Since so much of the roster was young and controllable, their most notable free agents were Austin Hedges and Bryan Shaw. That means the vast majority of the club that won 92 games last year will be back, with plenty more exciting prospects potentially joining them throughout the year.
Since they lost so few players at the end of last year, it’s been a fairly quiet winter for the club so far. However, they did make two notable additions by signing Josh Bell and Mike Zunino. Those two should help bolster the squad, and there will also be reinforcements coming from within. Prospects Brayan Rocchio, George Valera and Logan Allen all reached Triple-A last year and could make their MLB debuts this year, with Tanner Bibee, Daniel Espino and others not far behind.
Chicago White Sox – 2022 Record: 81-81, projected 2023 fWAR: 40.6
The Sox won 93 games in 2021 and were picked by many for a repeat in 2022. Unfortunately, many of their lineup regulars spent significant time on the injured list or disappointed or both. The rotation got huge results from Dylan Cease and Johnny Cueto but the rest of the rotation dealt with various ailments and slumped when on the mound. Manager Tony La Russa also dealt with health issues down the stretch and decided not to return to the dugout for 2023, leading to the hiring of Pedro Grifol.
They lost Cueto in free agency, along with their long-time fan favorite José Abreu. It’s hoped that Andrew Vaughn can come in from the outfield and take over for Abreu at first, which should at least help the team by subtracting his awful defense on the grass. Andrew Benintendi was signed to take over one of the outfield spots in Vaughn’s absence while Mike Clevinger was signed to replace Cueto in the rotation. It’s a fairly similar roster to the ones that won 93 games two years ago and 81 games last year. Better health might be enough to get them back to the 2021 form, but they’ve already lost their closer for an undetermined amount of time with Liam Hendriks starting treatment for non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma.
Minnesota Twins – 2022 Record: 78-84, projected 2023 fWAR: 42.0
After two straight divisions titles in 2019 and 2020, it’s been two disappointing campaigns in Minnesota. A mountain of injuries kept them below .500 in each of the two most recent campaigns. They were also facing the loss of a superstar this winter as Carlos Correa opted out of his contract and seemed unlikely to return. He then underwent one of the most surprising trips through free agency in recent memory, agreeing to a 13-year deal with the Giants that was later scuttled when the club grew concerned by the long-term health of his right leg. Correa then agreed to a 12-year deal with the Mets, though that agreement was also kiboshed by the medicals. That culminated in Correa coming back to Minnesota on a six-year guarantee with four vesting options.
Getting Correa back is a nice coup for the Twins but it still means they’ve effectively ended up back where they started. Christian Vázquez was signed to replace the departing Gary Sánchez and they’ve also taken a gamble on a Joey Gallo bounceback, but the roster currently looks fairly similar to the one that disappointed last year. Better health alone could get them right back into the race and they hired a new head athletic trainer to try to help in that department. However, it wouldn’t be surprising if injuries were an issue again since many of their key players appear to be prone to IL trips.
Detroit Tigers – 2022 Record: 66-96, projected 2023 fWAR: 30.0
The Tigers were a popular sleeper pick for a postseason berth about this time last year. They had many exciting prospects on the cusp of their debuts, including Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson. They decided the time was right to strike by signing Javier Báez and Eduardo Rodriguez, as well as upgrading via trade. Unfortunately, just about everyone on the roster had a disappointing season, especially on offense. The team hit just .231/.286/.346 for a wRC+ of 81 that was dead last in the majors. Their collective 110 home runs was also last and 17 behind the nearest team.
It seems like 2023 will be about figuring out how to proceed. The club fired general manager Al Avila and brought in Scott Harris as president of baseball operations. Since then, they’ve traded away a couple of relievers in Joe Jiménez and Gregory Soto while also signing a couple of starters to one-year deals in Matthew Boyd and Michael Lorenzen. It seems the all-in approach is on hold until they figure out which parts of their roster to build around.
Kansas City Royals – 2022 Record: 65-97, projected 2023 fWAR: 30.7
The Royals have finished below .500 in each of the past six seasons. Their attempted rebuild was failing to bear fruit, which led to major shakeups this winter. Both manager Mike Matheny and president of baseball operations Dayton Moore were fired, with Matt Quatraro now in the skipper’s chair and J.J. Picollo the chief baseball decision maker. The roster changes have been fairly modest so far this winter, with Zack Greinke the most notable departure, though he’s still a free agent. The additions include Jordan Lyles, Ryan Yarbrough and Aroldis Chapman.
The club has some exciting young players in Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino and MJ Melendez, but many of their top draft choices have gone to pitchers that have disappointed thus far. Daniel Lynch, Kris Bubic, Jackson Kowar, Alec Marsh, Jonathan Bowlan and Asa Lacy were all taken in the first or second round of the draft and haven’t yet delivered much to be excited about. However, Brady Singer showed in 2022 that the narrative can be flipped. Turning young players into viable big leaguers is key for a club that doesn’t throw around piles of cash in free agency. The recent lack of success in that regard has hurt them and they’ll need to do better somehow.
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While the Tigers and Royals seem likely to be using this year to evaluate younger players, the other three clubs all have a plausible path to winning the division. The Guardians are reigning champs and have added Bell to give them some extra thump. The Sox have stars like Tim Anderson, Luis Robert and Dylan Cease but just need everyone to stay healthy. It’s a similar story for the Twins who have elite players like Correa and Byron Buxton but need to keep them and others off the injured list. The three clubs are separated by just 4.5 projected WAR, according to FanGraphs, which points to an exciting battle in the upcoming campaign.
What do you think? Can the Guardians repeat or will one of their competitors surpass them? Have your say in the poll below.
(poll link for app users)
Who Will Win The AL Central In 2023
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Guardians 47% (5,232)
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Twins 26% (2,891)
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White Sox 18% (2,036)
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Tigers 5% (514)
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Royals 4% (445)
Total votes: 11,118
Guardians, Shane Bieber Avoid Arbitration
The Guardians and right-hander Shane Bieber have avoided arbitration by agreeing to a $10.01MM salary for 2023, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post.
Bieber, 28 in May, has spent his entire career in the Cleveland organization thus far, having been drafted by them in 2016. He made it to the big leagues by 2018 and was able to throw 114 2/3 innings with a 4.55 ERA. He took things up a notch the next year with a 3.28 ERA over 214 1/3 innings, striking out 30.2% of batters faced and walking only 4.7% of them.
In the 2020 season, Bieber went to incredible heights, registering a tiny 1.63 ERA for the season while striking out 41.1% of batters faced. His 3.2 wins above replacement from FanGraphs led all pitchers in the league. He won the American League Cy Young and came fourth in AL MVP voting.
Of course, that was the pandemic-shortened campaign and Bieber was never going to replicate those numbers over a full season. He was due for some regression in 2021 but also had to deal with a right shoulder subscapularis muscle strain that forced him to miss about three months. Nonetheless, he still posted a 3.17 ERA over 16 starts. In 2022, he stayed healthy and made 32 starts with a 2.88 ERA, keeping his walks to a tiny 4.6% rate while striking out 25% of opponents and getting ground balls at a 48.2% clip. He also made a couple of strong starts in the postseason to finish the year off.
Bieber has been highly-coveted by fans of other clubs given his tremendous success and the Guardians reportedly have some degree of openness to a deal. But nothing has come together so far, with Bieber sticking around as the ace of the Cleveland staff. He qualified for arbitration for the first time in 2022 and got a raise to $6MM. He’ll now bump just a hair above $10MM but just below the $10.7MM projection from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. He will be eligible for one more trip through the arb process in 2024 but is slated to reach free agency after that campaign.
Looking Through The Guardians’ Outfield Possibilities
The Guardians surprised most onlookers by sprinting to an AL Central title last season, pulling away from the Twins and White Sox with an excellent September. Cleveland quickly dispatched the Rays in the Wild Card series before losing a closely contested Division Series against the Yankees.
There were myriad reasons for the Guardians’ success. Recurring themes were plus defense around the diamond and a general willingness to trust young position players to run with their opportunities. That was also the case in the outfield, a unit that was average overall but had a couple standout players.
Cleveland seems mostly content running things back with the same group. The Guardians have added at catcher and first base, bringing in Mike Zunino and Josh Bell via free agency. They’ve not gone outside the organization for an outfielder to this point. One could argue for adding a veteran bat considering most of the in-house candidates have limited MLB track records, and perhaps Cleveland eventually adds a lower-cost depth type like Chad Pinder or Robbie Grossman. There’s probably not an impact player coming, though, so it’s worth looking through the numerous in-house options who could vie for playing time on the Progressive Field grass.
Kwan is the most established of the Cleveland outfielders after a stellar rookie season. He hadn’t been a top-tier prospect early in his professional career but continued excellence as a minor leaguer garnered him a spot on FanGraphs’ top 100 going into last season. Kwan even exceeded those expectations, hitting .298/.373/.400 with more walks than strikeouts over his first 638 MLB plate appearances. He paired that with elite defensive marks in left field, earning a Gold Glove and a third-place finish in Rookie of the Year balloting in the process. Kwan has below-average power but does everything else so well he looks like a perfect top-of-the-lineup option for manager Terry Francona. So long as he’s healthy, the Oregon State product is the Guardians left fielder.
Straw seems likely to get another crack in center field, at least initially. Acquired from the Astros at the 2021 trade deadline, Straw stepped in as Cleveland’s primary center fielder from there forward. He’s an elite defender and baserunner and looked to have taken a step forward offensively that season, combining for a .271/.349/.348 slash between the two teams. The Guardians rewarded him last spring with a $25MM contract extension that runs at least through the 2026 campaign.
The 28-year-old’s first full season in Cleveland was mixed. He continued to play excellent defense, with Statcast crediting him for 13 outs above average for his work in center field. Like Kwan, Straw secured his first Gold Glove. The offensive output plummeted though. He hit only .221/.273/.291 across 596 plate appearances. By measure of wRC+, only Jonathan Schoop and Geraldo Perdomo were less effective hitters (minimum 500 PA’s).
Straw posted some of the league’s worst batted ball metrics and didn’t connect on a single home run. His defense and baserunning means he doesn’t need to hit much to be a worthwhile everyday player, but the Cleveland front office is surely hoping for a little more output at the plate. Straw doesn’t seem in imminent danger of losing his job, but posting another sub-.600 OPS through the All-Star Break could lead the front office to consider deadline possibilities to add a little more offensive firepower in center field.
Gonzalez, who turns 25 today, was yet another success story in a loaded Cleveland rookie class. The right-handed hitter posted a .282/.308/.506 line through 41 games at Triple-A Columbus to earn his first MLB call in late May. He stuck in the majors from then on and immediately hit the ground running. Over 382 trips to the plate, Gonzalez hit .296/.327/.461 with 11 home runs and 27 doubles. He had a couple heroic moments in the playoffs as well, connecting on the walk-off home run to eliminate Tampa Bay and a game-winning two-run single against the Yankees. Those clutch hits overshadowed a mediocre .226/.250/.323 overall batting line in 32 postseason plate appearances.
It was a strong enough season to put himself on the map as a potential long-term piece in the Cleveland outfield, and he’s the likeliest player to open the year in right. Yet there’s a fair bit less certainty in Gonzalez sustaining his excellent rookie form than there’ll be in Kwan’s case. Gonzalez has never been a favorite of most prospect evaluators thanks to questions about his aggressive approach and below-average corner outfield defense. Cleveland left him unprotected in advance of the Rule 5 draft as recently as the 2021-22 offseason as a result.
Gonzalez’s great year quiets those concerns to some extent, but they’re not completely answered. He swung at nearly half the pitches outside the strike zone he saw as a rookie, placing him near the top of the league in that regard. His 3.9% walk percentage was among the lowest in the game. Perhaps Gonzalez has special enough hand-eye coordination and power that it won’t matter. He’ll need to prove it in a second extended run against MLB arms.
If Kwan, Straw and Gonzalez is Cleveland’s Opening Day outfield, Brennan seems the player most likely to break into the mix off the bench. The left-handed hitter fits the Guardians’ mold of high-contact bats, having never struck out at even a 17% clip at any minor league stop. He went down on strikes just 12.2% of the time at Triple-A last season, hitting .316/.367/.471 with nine home runs and 15 steals across 433 plate appearances. He earned a late-season MLB look and played well in his first 11 games.
Baseball America ranked Brennan the #10 prospect in a deep Cleveland farm system this offseason. The outlet praises his contact skills, athleticism and arm strength but questions his power potential. Brennan can play center field but BA suggests he’s probably a stronger defensive fit in the corner outfield. It’s easy to point to some similarities between him and Kwan, although the latter’s minor league track record was a little better. Brennan’s likely a better hitter than Straw right now and could be a candidate to take increased center field reps if Straw continues to struggle offensively — particularly since Straw can come off the bench later in games when the Guardians are looking for their best defensive unit to protect a lead.
A bat-first utility option, Palacios also made his MLB debut in 2022. He didn’t break in as well as most of the other Cleveland rookies, hitting .232/.293/.286 without a longball in his first 123 trips to the dish. It wasn’t a great first look but Palacios had a quality .279/.371/.458 line with better than average strikeout and walk marks through 45 games at Triple-A. He can play the corner outfield spots and offer some depth on the right side of the infield.
Valera, 22, is more likely a midseason possibility than a candidate to break camp. He’s on the 40-man roster but only has 42 games of Triple-A experience. After a strong Double-A showing, he hit .221/.324/.448 with nine homers in 179 plate appearances at the top minor league level, walking at a quality 12.3% clip against a 25.1% strikeout rate. Valera is the #4 prospect in the organization at BA and regarded as a potential high-OBP corner outfielder at his peak; whether he’ll be ready to contribute to a win-now Cleveland club at any point in 2023 depends on how well he shows in his first full season at Triple-A.
A former first-round draftee, Benson is a high-risk upside play at the back of the 40-man roster. His minor league track record has been wildly inconsistent. He’s coming off a great 2022 showing in Triple-A, where he mashed at a .278/.426/.522 clip with 17 homers and 16 steals through 401 plate appearances. He earned a brief MLB look but sputtered to a .168/.252/.200 line over 28 games. The left-handed hitter has always intrigued with massive power potential in a 6’5″ frame and a very discerning eye at the plate. That’s been paired with huge strikeout tallies at times throughout his minor league career, although he only fanned in a roughly average 22.7% of his trips in Columbus last year.
That’s seven players, all of whom are on the 40-man roster and controllable for a long while. Cleveland’s particularly deep in left-handed options (only Straw and Gonzalez hit from the right side). There was enough depth in that regard the Guardians felt comfortable sending Nolan Jones — another lefty bat who profiled as a corner outfielder with José Ramírez entrenched at third base in Cleveland — to Colorado for infield prospect Juan Brito.
While there’s an abundance of interesting controllable outfield options in Cleveland, none has a lengthy track record of big league productivity. Kwan looks like the safest bet after his fantastic rookie year. Everyone else comes with question marks of varying degrees.
Straw and Gonzalez seem likely to get the first crack at jobs alongside Kwan again, though they’ll have some intriguing young players on hand as contingency plans. Supplementing the group with a veteran righty bat could be a nice luxury addition for president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti and his staff before the season gets underway. Any pickup would figure to be a low-cost complement to Cleveland’s various in-house young players, who’ll again be entrusted with significant roles as they look to repeat as division champs.
Guardians Sign Touki Toussaint, Cam Gallagher To Minor League Deals
The Guardians announced Wednesday that they’ve signed right-hander Touki Toussaint, catcher Cam Gallagher and righty Michael Kelly to minor league contracts with invitations to Major League Spring Training. Cleveland also confirmed its previously reported signing of outfielder Roman Quinn.
Toussaint, 26, is the most recognizable and most experienced name of the bunch. A former first-round draft pick (No. 16 overall, to the D-backs in 2014) and top-100 prospect in the sport, the 6’3″ righty was traded to the Braves and, for several years, was viewed as a potentially vital piece of the team’s most recent rebuilding cycle. It was easy enough to see why. Toussaint obliterated minor league lineups in 2018, pitching to a combined 2.38 ERA in 136 1/3 innings — including a 1.43 ERA in 50 innings during his Triple-A debut.
It’s been mostly downhill since that time, however. Toussaint was solid but wild in a 29-inning MLB debut late in the ’18 season, and he was clobbered both in Triple-A and in the Majors in 2019 (as were many pitchers in the juiced ball season). He allowed 24 runs in 24 1/3 innings during the shortened 2020 season, and Toussaint hasn’t really found his footing in either of the two subsequent seasons, despite a move to the bullpen and a change of scenery that sent him from Atlanta to Anaheim.
All in all, Toussaint has a 5.34 ERA in 170 1/3 big league innings. He’s punched out a solid 23.7% of his opponents and paired that with a solid 11.1% swinging-strike rate, but he’s also walked far too many hitters (13.6%) and been homer-prone more often than not (1.37 HR/9). His Triple-A work has been better, but not markedly so; in 160 innings he carries a 4.55 ERA with a 25.7% strikeout rate and 12.6% walk rate.
Gallagher, 30, has appeared in parts of six Major League seasons — all with the Royals. He’s primarily functioned as a glove-first backup to iron man Salvador Perez, never topping more than 142 plate appearances in a single big league season. He’s tallied just 469 trips to the plate during his time in the Majors, batting .240/.302/.355 overall. Gallagher draws plus marks for his framing and has registered 11 Defensive Runs Saved in 1136 career innings behind the plate, though he’s struggled a bit with the running game (20.6% caught-stealing rate in his career).
Also 30, Kelly made his Major League debut with the Phillies in 2022 when he tossed four innings of one-run ball with a 4-to-1 K/BB ratio. The longtime Padres farmhand has a spotty track record in the upper minors but had a big year with the Astros’ Double-A and Triple-A affiliates in 2021, pitching to a combined 2.70 ERA with a with a 29.5% strikeout rate and 8.6% walk rate. He was hit hard with the Phillies’ Triple-A club in 2022, but part of his unsightly 5.29 ERA can be chalked up to a sky-high .375 average on balls in play. Kelly also punched out better than 29% of his opponents for a second straight year in 2022.
Both Toussaint and Kelly will vie for bullpen spots this spring, though Cleveland has a deep and talented relief corps that might be tough to crack in the earlygoing. That said, either could be a fine depth option in the event of injuries. Gallagher will be behind each of Mike Zunino, Bo Naylor and Bryan Lavastida on the depth chart, as they’re all on the 40-man roster. He joins another former Royals backup, Meibrys Viloria, as catching depth in the upper minors.
Guardians, Roman Quinn Agree To Minor League Deal
The Guardians are in agreement on a minor league deal with fleet-footed outfielder Roman Quinn, reports Robert Murray of FanSided (Twitter link). The Roc Nation Sports client will be invited to Major League Spring Training with his new organization.
Quinn, 29, was considered one of the Phillies’ top farmhands for several years but has never appeared in more than 50 games or reached 150 plate appearances in a big league season. He held his own in brief call-ups with the Phils back in 2016 and 2018, hitting a combined .261/.335/.388 through 212 plate appearances while going 15-for-20 in stolen base attempts. However, since that time, Quinn has turned in a combined .207/.286/.326 batting line in 157 games and 387 plate appearances in the Majors.
The switch-hitting Quinn split the 2022 season between the Phillies, Royals and Rays organizations, struggling on the whole but posting a respectable .262/.340/.405 slash in 47 plate appearances with Tampa Bay to close out the season. That said, Quinn fanned in 44.7% of his plate appearances with the Rays and was buoyed by a whopping .524 average on balls in play, so his small-sample production there looked far from sustainable.
Though he’s struggled in the Majors, Quinn has had success in the upper minors, slashing .296/.358/.435 in 592 Double-A plate appearances and .287/.370/.437 in 395 Triple-A plate appearances. His speed has been an asset in the outfield, where he can handle any of the three positions and has posted above-average defensive grades in 1269 big league innings.
Quinn’s speed-and-defense skill set fits the Guardians’ mold to an extent, though he’s not the type of contact-oriented hitter that Cleveland has stockpiled in recent seasons. He’s fanned in 30.4% of his Major League plate appearances — including an alarming 35.5% clip over the past three seasons (265 plate appearances).
The Guardians’ starting outfield appears largely set, with third-place Rookie of the Year finisher Steven Kwan in left field, fellow speedster Myles Straw in center and the quietly productive Oscar Gonzalez in right field. Both Will Brennan and Will Benson are on the 40-man roster as alternatives or potential bench options, and top prospect George Valera will start the season in Triple-A and hope to improve on a pedestrian showing in his debut at that level last season. (Valera did produce a more sobust .264/.367/.470 output in Double-A prior to his promotion and is still just 22 years of age.)
Given that plethora of outfield options, Quinn will be hard-pressed to crack Cleveland’s Opening Day roster, but he’s a nice depth option to have on hand in the event of an injury (particularly if Straw ends up needing to miss time in center).