Since the end of the lockout, the Guardians have had “on and off” discussions with the representatives for star third baseman José Ramírez, reports Paul Hoynes of Cleveland.com. Hoynes characterizes the talks as exchanging ideas about players who could be considered comparable to Ramírez as opposed to floating actual frameworks for a deal.
It’s not surprising to hear the Cleveland front office has gotten in touch with Ramírez’s reps. The three-time All-Star is controllable for two more seasons, but it stands to reason the Guardians would want some idea about the kind of money it’d take to keep him around for the long haul. Ramírez is, after all, one of the game’s best players. The switch-hitting third baseman broke out as a superstar in 2017, and he’s been among the most valuable players in the sport over the past half-decade.
Going back to the beginning of the 2017 campaign, only Mike Trout and Mookie Betts edge out Ramírez among position players by FanGraphs’ measure of Wins Above Replacement. Ramírez owns a .280/.365/.547 line in that time, offensive production that checks in checks in 39 percentage points above average by measure of wRC+. That’s the 15th-highest mark among qualifiers, and Ramírez pairs that offensive damage with excellent marks for both his baserunning and defense at the hot corner.
Cleveland signed Ramírez to an incredibly team-friendly deal just before he took his game to new heights. In March 2017, they inked him to a $26MM guarantee that extended their window of team control by three seasons. He’ll play this season on an $11MM salary and is controllable in 2023 via a $13MM club option that’s a lock to be exercised barring catastrophic injury.
That extension delayed Ramírez’s path to the open market, and he’s not slated to hit free agency (assuming next year’s option is picked up) until the advance of his age-31 campaign. Accordingly, he won’t command a decade-long commitment in the Corey Seager mold, but teams have still paid a fair amount for slightly older star position players in recent offseasons. George Springer landed a six-year, $150MM deal from the Blue Jays heading into his age-31 season last winter; Marcus Semien picked up $175MM over seven years from the Rangers this offseason at the same age.
If he keeps playing at his current form over the next couple years, Ramírez would quite likely beat those deals in free agency. His camp could justifiably argue he’s a better player than either Springer or Semien, and the overall market could be more robust as teams move further away from the lost revenues in 2020. Draft pick compensation for free agents, which applied to both Springer and Semien, could also be pulled from the collective bargaining agreement depending on the status of an international draft.
The Guardians wouldn’t pay an open market price for Ramírez two years in advance, but it’d still register as a surprise if they went to the level it’d take to keep him in Cleveland long-term. The franchise has never gone above $60MM in guarantees on any individual player. A Ramírez extension would probably cost more than double that amount. Cleveland has had a bottom five player payroll in each of the past two years, and they’re currently slated to head into 2022 with around a $56MM mark, in the calculation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource.
Owner Paul Dolan would probably have to greenlight more spending in the future to keep Ramírez around. The post-2023 payroll slate is wide open, but it’s tough to imagine the Guardians allocating 40-50% of their annual payroll to a single player. Hoynes writes that the front office is conferring with Dolan about the long-term spending plans and that no further negotiations with Ramírez have presently been scheduled. It stands to reason the front office will reengage with their star player once they have a better understanding about the kind of resources that’ll be at their disposal.
With their two years of club control, the Guardians don’t have to hammer out a deal with Ramírez in the coming weeks or months. So long as no extension is in place, however, chatter figures to mount about his future. That’s particularly true if the Guardians struggle early in the season.
Ramírez’s name was floated briefly in trade rumors this winter, with the Blue Jays among the teams to inquire about his availability, but it never seemed likely Cleveland would ship him out over the offseason. A rough first half for the team would probably result in increased speculation about a Ramírez trade as the deadline gets closer. Cleveland would surely prefer to avoid that situation — either by keeping him for the long haul or playing well enough in the season’s first couple months there’s no question about their direction come July.
