Free Agent Profile: J.D. Martinez
Despite not accumulating enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title, J.D. Martinez hit the third-most home runs of any player in baseball. Make no mistake, he’ll be paid for his power this winter.
Pros/Strengths
Since his breakout season with the Tigers, Martinez has been an incredible power asset. Over the past four seasons, the outfielder is 10th in MLB with 128 homers, despite having the second-fewest plate appearances of any player in the top 20 in that category. During that time, Martinez trails only Mike Trout in slugging percentage. He also ranks within the top five in wOBA and wRC+ during that stretch, with an even .300 batting average and .362 OBP, so it’s not as if he’s an all-or-nothing presence at the plate.
During the 2017 season, Martinez took his power to a new level. Across 489 plate appearances between the Tigers and the Diamondbacks, Martinez posted a whopping .690 slugging percentage, which would have led all of baseball by a full 59 points if he’d made enough trips to the plate to qualify for the slugging title. The power numbers he puts up are incredibly impressive and will motivate many teams to inquire on him.
It’s not just his power numbers that stick out, however. Those figures are just one by-product of Martinez’ true greatest strength: quality of contact. His whopping 49% hard contact rate led all of baseball last season, and only Aaron Judge had more barrels per plate appearance. His 208-foot average batted ball distance ranked 10th among hitters with at least 250 batted ball events. His 90.8 MPH average exit velocity ranked 12th, while his 97.2 MPH average exit velocity on fly balls ranked 6th.
Cons/Weaknesses
Though Martinez’ power is absolutely elite, he comes with a slew of weaknesses that hurt his value and build in a frightening amount of risk. It all starts with his health; Martinez has missed significant time with injuries in each of the past two seasons. In fact, the outfielder has only qualified for the batting title once in his career; teams will certainly be somewhat skeptical about his ability to produce at his 2017 clip over a full season in 2018, let alone in future years as he ages.
One can’t completely ignore defense, either, and Martinez is a downright liability in the field. Fangraphs rated him the seventh-worst defensive player in baseball in 2017. His Ultimate Zone Rating per 150 games was -14.8; that figure was the worst among all MLB outfielders. Defensive Runs Saved paints a slightly better picture, but his -5 DRS still ties him for 40th place out of 56 qualifying outfielders. If Martinez was even average defensively, he’d no doubt be one of the top ten most valuable players in baseball. As it stands, however, he’s outside the top 40 in WAR among hitters alone across a three-year sample size.
There’s also plenty of swing-and-miss in Martinez’ game, although it may not be a chief concern in today’s environment. His 26.2% strikeout rate was the 41st-highest among 216 MLB players with at least 400 plate appearances last year. Part of this stems from his 71.2% contact rate, which put him in the bottom eighth of baseball players in that category. It’s worth noting that Martinez improved his walk rate dramatically this year as well; his 10.8% walk rate put him in the 30th percentile. All told, high strikeout totals aren’t entirely uncommon for power hitters, but Martinez does have some of the poorest plate discipline among the elite power threats in the game. If we isolate the top 30 players in slugging percentage this past season, Martinez has the 6th-highest strikeout rate and 12th-lowest walk rate in that group.
The mediocre plate discipline is probably worth the trade-off for his avalanche of extra base hits, but it’s tough to know whether his swing will age well. Martinez and agent Scott Boras are reportedly seeking a contract above $200MM. While few in the industry think he’ll come close to that figure, the MLBTR team predicts he’ll earn something in the range of $150MM. If a win is worth roughly $9MM on the free agent market, one would think Martinez will need to provide somewhere close to 14 wins for his new team over the life of that contract, factoring in some inflation. Over the last century, only a handful of players have produced 14 WAR or more for their entire careers with a strikeout rate above 25% and a walk rate below 11%. Those players are Chris Davis, Ryan Howard, David Ross, Colby Rasmus and Melvin Upton Jr. None of them stands out as being particularly productive beyond his age 30 season. Of course, the game is trending in more of a strikeout-heavy direction these days, so perhaps that stat shouldn’t be observed with too much gravity.
Those readers interested in “clutch” hitters should know that Martinez hasn’t been good in high leverage situations. Since his breakout began at the start of the 2014 season, Martinez ranks dead last among 289 qualifying hitters with a -4.30 clutch rating via Fangraphs.
Background
With the number 611 overall pick in the 2009 draft (20th round), the Houston Astros selected Martinez out of Nova Southeastern University in Fort Lauderdale, Florida. He ascended quickly through the minor leagues, making his professional debut just two years later, performing as a roughly average major leaguer in half a season’s worth of at-bats. Things didn’t go well for Martinez across the next two seasons, however. He posted a .245/.295/.376 batting line from 2012-2013 and was ultimately released by Houston.
Although his career seemed all but over after being cut by a then-cellar-dwelling Astros team, the Tigers nabbed Martinez, who had spend the offseason overhauling his swing. Early into the 2014 season, it became clear that Detroit had picked up a completely different player than the sub-replacement level outfielder who had struggled with the Astros. Martinez went on to put together a .318/.358/.553 slash line en route to 4.0 WAR and a 154 wRC+ that year, and has produced fantastic offensive numbers ever since.
Market
As a right-handed power hitter, Martinez would be a welcome asset to the middle of any MLB team’s batting order. However, his price tag will put him firmly out of reach for the majority of teams in smaller markets. Furthermore, the length of the contract he’ll command might give pause to NL teams, who could be concerned that his already-poor defense will decline further with age. While that certainly doesn’t eliminate NL clubs, it does mean that AL clubs (who could play him at DH in the latter years of the contract) might be willing to offer a longer deal. As MLBTR has already noted in our Top 50 Free Agents With Predictions article, the Red Sox are a very good fit. The piece also mentions the Cardinals and Giants as suitors. I’d add the Yankees and Rangers to that list as well, though both would likely need to do some creative financial work to make it possible. Perhaps a few other surprise bidders could emerge.
Expected Contract
The $200MM+ contract Boras is seeking for Martinez isn’t realistic. MLBTR’s initial projection of $150MM over six years is more plausible. However, it’s become evident by now that teams are willing to be patient and wait out the free agent market. Going into last offseason, Yoenis Cespedes had a similar four-year WAR output, was just a year older, and had fewer health questions; he signed a four-year, $110MM contract. Based on that, it might be safer to predict a five-year deal for Martinez. I’m going to forecast exactly that, at a $135MM guarantee.
Mariners, Giants, Padres, Rangers, Cubs, Angels Among Teams To Meet With Shohei Ohtani
11:40pm: The Angels are indeed one of the finalists, as per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (via Twitter).
10:39pm: The Angels are thought by “multiple sources” to be one of the finalists, Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan tweets. The Tigers are out of the running, according to Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press.
8:59pm: The Rangers and Cubs will both meet with Ohtani, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News reports (Twitter link), and they’re also the only two non-West Coast teams who appear to still be alive in the candidate process. The Rangers, Grant notes, have yet to comment on their status one way or the other.
7:22pm: The Nationals won’t be receiving a meeting, the Washington Post’s Chelsea Janes reports (Twitter link).
6:58pm: The Braves are out, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports (via Twitter).
6:50pm: The Padres will receive a meeting with Ohtani, FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman reports (Twitter links). The Dodgers are also thought to still be active in the Ohtani sweepstakes though Heyman doesn’t have confirmation; regardless, the Dodgers aren’t thought to be favorites to land Ohtani.
6:38pm: The Rays, Cardinals and White Sox are out, according to the Tampa Bay Times’ Marc Topkin, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale (all Twitter links).
6:15pm: The Diamondbacks won’t receive a meeting, Ken Rosenthal tweets.
6:12pm: The Blue Jays, Pirates, and Brewers are all out, as respectively reported by Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi, MLB.com’s Adam Berry, and the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s Tom Haudricourt (all Twitter links).
5:48pm: The Mets are also out, as per Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link).
5:38pm: Ohtani’s list is “heavy” on West Coast teams, Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reports, though the Cubs may still be involved. Not every west-based team is included, however, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal tweets that the A’s aren’t involved.
5:28pm: The Red Sox are also out of the running, president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski told Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe. The Twins also won’t be getting a meeting with Ohtani, Heyman tweets.
5:16pm: The Giants and Mariners are among the teams that will receive meetings with Shohei Ohtani and his representatives next week, Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan reports (Twitter link). It isn’t known who the other finalists are in the Ohtani sweepstakes, though the Yankees are one of the teams that didn’t make the cut, as Yankees GM Brian Cashman told reporters (including NJ.com’s Brendan Kuty and MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch).
According to Cashman, Ohtani seems to be leaning towards West Coast teams in smaller markets. This ties to a report from FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman saying that Ohtani’s reps are informing teams that the two-way star would prefer to play in a smaller market.
The news adds another fascinating layer to the Ohtani sweepstakes, which was already one of the more intriguing free agent pursuits in recent memory. Given the seeming lack of immediate financial motive that inspired Ohtani’s move to Major League Baseball, it opened the door for every team in baseball (regardless of market or payroll size) to make a push for the 23-year-old. There had been speculation that Ohtani might look to avoid playing in a larger market, so this apparent confirmation creates a realistic possibility that he will land with a team that wouldn’t normally be considered a favorite to land such a coveted free agent.
Of course, San Francisco isn’t exactly a small market, though Ohtani wouldn’t necessarily be the center of attention on a club with such established stars as Buster Posey and Madison Bumgarner (and maybe even Giancarlo Stanton in the near future). Playing for an NL team, however, would force Ohtani into a pinch-hitting or even a part-time outfield role for the at-bats he seeks in his attempt to be a two-way player in the big leagues. The Mariners do have such a DH spot available (in a timeshare with Nelson Cruz), and were considered to be a contender for Ohtani given their long history of Japanese players.
The Yankees also have had several significant Japanese players on their past and current rosters, and were widely seen as one of the major favorites for Ohtani’s services from a financial (in terms of available international bonus money) and positional (openings at DH and in the rotation) standpoint, not to mention their international fame and their young core of talent ready to make a World Series push. With Ohtani now out of the picture, the Yankees could move to signing more pitching depth — a reunion with C.C. Sabathia has been widely speculated as a possibility — or a veteran bat to serve as designated hitter, if the club doesn’t just rotate its DH days to find plate appearances for everyone on the current roster.
AL Central Notes: Royals, Boone, Jackson, Tribe, Tigers
With Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain, and Mike Moustakas all hitting free agency, there has been wide speculation that the Royals could be entering a rebuild phase. This is the general consensus around the league, Rustin Dodd of the Kansas City Star writes, even if Hosmer is re-signed. The club itself is unsure about its contention plans for the immediate future, as the exact level of the rebuild is still in question — “club officials see rebuilding scenarios that include” Hosmer on the roster, Dodd writes. This would seemingly put K.C. in an awkward decision this winter, as spending nine figures to re-sign Hosmer doesn’t seem to make much sense for a team that already has an eye towards reloading its farm system, though GM Dayton Moore is reportedly not keen on the idea of a full teardown.
Here’s more from the AL Central…
- The Twins and Aaron Boone recently had mutual interest in a front office role before Boone was hired to be the Yankees’ new manager, according to Charley Walters of the St. Paul Pioneer Press (hat tip to 1500ESPN.com’s Darren Wolfson).
- The Indians are interested in a reunion with Austin Jackson “but at the right price,” according to Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer. Jackson proved to be a big bargain for the Tribe in 2017, as he signed a minor league deal and then hit an outstanding .318/.387/.482 over 318 plate appearances while seeing time at all three outfield positions. Jackson would bring a right-handed presence to a projected Cleveland outfield that currently features three left-handed hitters (Michael Brantley, Bradley Zimmer, Lonnie Chisenhall), though there’s certainly question as to whether Jackson can sustain his production, given his .385 BABIP from last season and his recent history of subpar offensive numbers.
- The Tigers figure to add multiple starting pitchers this winter, though as The Athletic’s Katie Strang notes, those arms will come in the form of inexpensive MLB and minor league signings and possibly a Rule 5 Draft pick. Names like Clay Buchholz, Drew Smyly or Nick Burdi could fit, though the latter two are recovering from Tommy John surgery and could be tough fits on the 40-man roster.
AL Central Notes: Twins, Tigers, Abreu
Darren Wolfson of KSTP tweeted today that while the Twins remain “engaged and interested” in regards to a few big name free agent pitchers, there’s no indication yet that they are “in heavily” on anyone. While that can change quickly, Wolfson acknowledges that the trade market is also a very real possibility. It would seem that Minnesota is in a position to take their time in exploring all possible options. It makes plenty of sense to wonder whether the Twins might wait to see where Shohei Ohtani signs before making any significant pitching acquisitions. The market for pitching is likely to hold fast until the two-way Japanese sensation picks a landing spot, and on the off-chance that he chooses Minnesota, they might be able to focus their resources on other areas of the roster. A particularly weak bullpen comes to mind as another area the Twins will need to improve upon if they expect to contend again in 2018.
More notes out of the American League’s central division…
- While the Tigers probably won’t be serious pursuers of big name free agents this offseason, Katie Strang of The Athletic provides a short list of potential bargain buys for a depleted Detroit rotation. Strang notes that Michael Fulmer is coming off elbow surgery, while veteran Jordan Zimmerman has spent the offseason overhauling his delivery in hopes to return to form after a disastrous 2017 season. Beyond them, Matthew Boyd and Daniel Norris aren’t sure bets to hold down rotation spots. Chris Tillman, Miles Mikolas and Clay Buchholz are some interesting names Strang suggests as options for the Tigers to explore. While none are particularly exciting, they all have some upside as comeback players and could eat innings for Detroit in 2018.
- Although the Red Sox are players for White Sox slugger Jose Abreu, Scott Lauber of ESPN notes that the south siders are reportedly asking for “an arm and a leg” in exchange for their first baseman. Boston might not have the prospects necessary to swing a deal; the White Sox were able to land huge hauls for Chris Sale and Adam Eaton last offseason and might be holding out for a similar return for Abreu. The Cuban native has put up a .301/.359/.524 batting line for his four-year major league career. His slugging percentage and 124 home runs both rank 13th in the majors during that span, while his 410 RBI rank 5th. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently detailed the trade market for Abreu.
Quick Hits: MiLB Market, Tigers, Non-Tenders, Ohtani
It’s no secret that the market for MLB players has been shockingly cold to date. Ironically, the fact that there are so few stories has become one of the biggest stories of the offseason. But what has perhaps gone somewhat overlooked is the slow crawl of the minor league free agent market. In a piece for Baseball America, Matt Eddy details the frigid minor league market to date. He notes that nearly five times as many minor league free agents had signed contracts by this point last offseason, and quotes an agent describing the “trickle-down” effect of the slow major league free agent market. “Teams are (emphasizing) ‘delay, delay, delay,’ hoping for players to get desperate and start signing lower deals.” says one agent via Eddy. This tactic to drive down the asking prices of MLB free agents could end up reducing the eventual contracts of MiLB free agents as well. While the worst-case scenario for major leaguers is a smaller guarantee, the fear for minor league free agents is that they might not end up with a team at all if they wait too long to sign.
More from around baseball…
- Emily Waldon of The Athletic points out that Detroit has just one available spot on the 40-man roster, along with the first pick in the Rule 5 Draft. It will certainly be a valuable pick, and with the rebuilding Tigers not expected to contend this year, they should easily be able to keep their selection on their big league roster throughout the 2018 season. Waldon also provides some notes on former Tigers who are now with new organizations, as well as a few interesting minor leaguers who are making impressions in winter ball. It’s great material for Detroit fans who are looking for some storylines to follow during a rebuilding season.
- With the non-tender deadline yesterday, many new names were added to the free agent pool. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com lists six players he thinks are likely to draw significant interest from major league clubs. Feinsand provides some helpful details on those players, including the likes of Matt Adams and Drew Smyly. It’s helpful for anyone looking speculate on how the non-tender free agents could potentially impact the free agent market.
- With the posting of Shohei Ohtani recently becoming official, ESPN’s Keith Law reveals some secondhand info he’s compiled from scouts who have seen the Japanese phenom play. Although Ohtani is able to reach the 100 MPH threshold, most scouts say the velocity of his fastball plays down a bit due to lack of movement. Many scouts also express skepticism about his ability to hit in the major leagues, citing concerns over his capabilities to both shorten his swing enough to cover the inner third of the plate and develop a “real” two-strike approach. There also seems to be some concerns about his durability and how he’ll deal with the fatigue of both pitching and hitting throughout a full season.
2017 Non-Tenders
The deadline to tender 2018 contracts to players is tonight at 8pm EST. We’ll keep track of the day’s non-tenders in this post (all referenced arbitration projections courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) …
- The Giants non-tendered righty Albert Suarez, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area tweets. Suarez, 28, was not yet eligible for arbitration.
- Righty Tom Koehler and infielder Ryan Goins are heading to the open market after being non-tendered by the Blue Jays, per a team announcement.
- The Rays announced that lefty Xavier Cedeno has been non-tendered, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times tweets.
- The Cubs non-tendered catcher Taylor Davis, per a team announcement. He was not yet eligible for arbitration.
- Four Rangers players have not been tendered contracts, per a club announcement. Righties Chi Chi Gonzalez, A.J. Griffin, and Nick Martinez have been cut loose along with infielder Hanser Alberto. Griffin ($3.0MM projection) and Martinez ($2.0MM) were both noted as non-tender candidates by MLBTR. The other two players were not yet eligible for arbitration. Gonzalez was a former first-round pick who had struggled of late and underwent Tommy John surgery in July.
- The Diamondbacks have also non-tendered lefty T.J. McFarland, who had projected at a $1.0MM salary.
- The Reds non-tendered lefty Kyle Crockett, a pre-arb lefty who was only recently claimed on waivers, per a club announcement.
- Per a club announcement, the Brewers have non-tendered veteran righty Jared Hughes. He will end up being the only 40-man player not to receive a contract from Milwaukee. Hughes had projected at a $2.2MM arbitration value. The 32-year-old is a master at inducing grounders and has turned in repeatedly excellent results. He also averaged a career-best 93.9 mph on his sinker in 2017.
- The Mariners have non-tendered lefty Drew Smyly and righty Shae Simmons, per a club announcement. While the former was expected, due to Smyly’s Tommy John surgery, the latter rates as something of a surprise given his cheap $700K projection. Of course, it’s possible the club is not optimistic of his chances of bouncing back from arm troubles.
- The White Sox will not tender a contract to reliever Jake Petricka, per SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo (via Twitter). He had projected to take home $1.1MM in his second trip through the arb process. Also non-tendered, per a club announcement, were righties Zach Putnam and Al Alburquerque as well as infielder Alan Hanson.
- It seems that righty Bruce Rondon will wind up his tenure with the Tigers, as the organization is set to non-tender him, per Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free-Press (via Twitter). Rondon was long viewed as a potential late-inning arm for the Tigers, but had some notable run-ins with the organization, struggled with control, and never consistently produced at the MLB level. Though he projected to earn just $1.2MM, Rondon will be allowed to find a new organization. He will turn 26 later this month.
- The Diamondbacks will non-tender righty J.J. Hoover, per SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo (via Twitter). Hoover projected at just $1.6MM, but Arizona is watching every penny as it seeks to return to the postseason with a tight payroll situation. The 30-year-old turned in 41 1/3 innings of 3.92 ERA ball in 2017 with 11.8 K/9 but also 5.7 BB/9 on the year.
- The Royals announced that they have non-tendered outfielder Terrance Gore. Though Gore was not eligible for arbitration, teams occasionally utilize today’s deadline to prune their 40-man rosters. Gore had quite an interesting run with Kansas City, scarcely playing at all during the regular season and then appearing as a speed-and-defense asset in the team’s two storied postseason runs. Now, though the fleet-footed 26-year-old is out of options. With an upper minors OPS that hovers just over .600, Gore just was not going to break camp with the club. It seems reasonable to think there’s a chance he’ll return to the organization on a minors deal, though Gore will also have a shot at exploring the broader market.
Tender Deadline Notes: Mercer, Rays, Brewers, Cubs, Tigers, Romine
Friday at 8pm EST marks the deadline for teams to tender contracts for the 2018 season, meaning that we’ll see a few difficult calls made on arbitration-eligible players. MLBTR recently compiled a list of the players we feel are most at risk to be non-tendered (with the proviso that many of the names on the list likely will not end up being set free). As ever, anticipated cost is a major factor, so you’ll want to reference the arbitration projections of MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz for a sense of where the salaries could be headed.
Here’s the latest chatter as the decision time draws near …
- Some readers were surprised to see Pirates shortstop Jordy Mercer tabbed as a possible non-tender on MLBTR’s list. In our view, his hefty salary (projected at $6.5MM) and the possibility of finding cheaper alternatives combine to create some vulnerability — at least, that is, from an outside examination. The expectation of MLB.com’s Adam Berry, though, is that Pittsburgh will continue to rely on Mercer in his final season of arb eligibility. Berry cites Mercer’s steadiness and the fact that the team’s middle infield prospects aren’t quite ready yet to take over at short.
- The Rays face a number of interesting arbitration decisions even after resolving one by trading Brad Boxberger; Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times runs through the list. The most recent report suggests that Tampa Bay will tender Brad Miller if they don’t trade him on Friday, and Topkin generally concurs with that assessment. While MLBTR feels there’s a chance that shortstop Adeiny Hechavarria and catcher Jesus Sucre could be at risk, Topkin says the expectation is they’ll be retained. Rather, he feels the focus could remain on the relief corps, with pitchers Xavier Cedeno, Dan Jennings, and Chase Whitley all being candidates for something other than a straight tender. That could mean a trade, a pre-deadline deal to lock in their salary at a favorable rate, or perhaps a non-tender.
- Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel similarly examines the choices facing the Brewers. Two players that MLBTR identified as plausible non-tender candidates, reliever Jeremy Jeffress and catcher Stephen Vogt, receive similar billing from Haudricourt, as does righty Jared Hughes. Per the article, Milwaukee has “probably been trying to do pre-deadline deals” with the two pen pieces, while Vogt could simply be sent onto the open market.
- For the Cubs, too, the toughest calls may come in the relief department. As Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Times writes, and as MLBTR’s analysis has suggested, Hector Rondon ($6.2MM projection) and Justin Grimm ($2.4MM) may be entering their final day with the Chicago organization. Rondon, especially, could receive trade consideration from other teams if the Cubs decide it’s time to move on.
- Speaking of pen pieces at risk, the Tigers landed two players on our list: righties Bruce Rondon ($1.2MM projection) and Alex Wilson ($2.1MM). Evan Woodberry of MLive.com tweets that both are indeed potential non-tender candidates for Detroit, but both are not necessarily going to be cut loose. In Woodberry’s estimation, the volatile Rondon is somewhat likely to be cut loose after allowing 19 earned runs in his 15 2/3 MLB innings in 2017. Though he continued to show swing-and-miss stuff, and posted a 2.70 ERA in his 36 2/3 frames at Triple-A, Rondon struggled to limit the free passes. As for the 31-year-old Wilson, it’s something of the opposite scenario for Woodberry. He says that he expects Wilson will be tendered despite a middling 4.50 ERA in his most recent season. The veteran did post similar K/BB figures to those that allowed him to generate better results in prior campaigns.
- We drew some ire for suggesting that the Yankees could pass a chance at retaining catcher Austin Romine for his projected $1.2MM salary, but MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch suggests there’s some possibility that could occur. Even if he is not kept on the 40-man roster, says Hoch, Romine could be targeted to return on a minors pact. Of course, he’d also then have a chance to see if he could score a MLB slot with another organization. Romine limped to a .218/.272/.293 slash line in 252 plate appearances last year, but is generally regarded as a solid defender. It seems likely that the decision will come down to a question of whether the Yanks simply think they can do better with youngster Kyle Higashioka or another open-market option to complement regular Gary Sanchez.
Minor MLB Transactions: 11/30/17
Here are the day’s minor moves:
- Joining the Orioles on a minors deal is righty Perci Garner, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). Soon to turn 29, Garner struggled in limited action in an injury-limited 2017 season. But he did show a 95 mph heater and 14.4% swinging-strike rate in his brief foray into the majors in 2016, and worked to a 1.83 ERA with 8.0 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 in 78 2/3 frames in the upper minors that year. Notably, too, Garner’s innings tally came in just 41 relief appearances, suggesting that the former starter could have some multi-inning potential.
- Infielder/outfielder Jimmy Paredes has joined the KBO’s Doosan Bears, as Korea’s Naver Sports reports (Korean language link; h/t to Dan Kurtz of MyKBO.net, via Twitter). He’ll receive a $800K salary for the 2018 season. Paredes has seen just over a thousand MLB plate appearances in parts of six seasons, slashing only .251/.286/.369. He spent the 2017 campaign with Japan’s Chiba Lotte Marines, where he produced a .219/.270/.364 slash with ten home runs in 289 trips to the plate.
Earlier Updates
- The Tigers announced that they have completed their summer swap with the Cubs by acquiring cash rather than a player to be named. That deal sent Jeimer Candelario and Isaac Paredes to Detroit in exchange for veterans Justin Wilson and Alex Avila. The amount of cash that’s now changing hands isn’t known. Obviously, the key to this deal from the Tigers’ perspective was Candelario. The 24-year-old had an impressive initial showing upon reaching the majors with his new organization, slashing .330/.406/.468 in 106 plate appearances.
- Anthony Gose is joining the Rangers on a minors deal, per Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press (Twitter links). He’s expected both to function as a left-handed reliever — as he did last year in the minors — and to play the outfield — as he long did previously, including at the major-league level. Gose, who’s still just 27, recorded 14 strikeouts and six walks while allowing nine earned runs in 10 2/3 innings at the High-A level in 2017. Elbow issues halted his season at that point. Though Gose never showed quite enough bat in the majors, which is why he ended up attempting the conversion, he does have a useful skillset — quality speed and defense — that would make him a hypothetically interesting roster piece if he can develop sufficiently on the mound.
- Joining the Twins on minor-league pacts are outfielder Ryan LaMarre, catcher Bobby Wilson, righty Myles Jaye, and catcher/infielder Willians Astudillo, MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger tweets. LaMarre has reached the majors very briefly in each of the past three seasons; he spent most of last year at Triple-A with the Athletics and Angels organizations, slashing just .247/.328/.300 in 194 plate appearances. The 34-year-old Wilson, an eight-year MLB veteran, hit .243/.318/.428 for the Dodgers’ top affiliate lat year and will likely head to Rochester for depth. Jaye, who’ll soon turn 26, struggled in his first chance at the game’s highest level last year but has also compiled three consecutive sub-4.00 ERA seasons in the upper minors. The versatile Astudillo — the only member of this group that hasn’t tasted the bigs — posted great numbers in limited action at Triple-A last year but is a lifetime .750 OPS hitter in the minors.
- The Marlins have added righty Drew Rucinski on a minors deal, per SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo (Twitter link). Rucinski, who turns 29 at the end of December, has seen minimal action in three MLB campaigns. He transitioned to full-time relief in 2017 for the first time since his earliest work in the low minors, with fairly promising results. In 63 frames at Triple-A, Rucinski compiled a 2.57 ERA with 8.1 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9.
Free Agent Notes: Avila, Kintzler, Tillman, Chooch
Though he’s coming off a huge season split between the Tigers and Cubs, catcher Alex Avila said on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM today that he’s open to a backup role on a contending team (Twitter link). Avila explains that his “number one” priority is signing with a team that has an opportunity to reach the postseason, rather than guaranteeing himself a starting job on a team that is less of a clear-cut contender. Set to turn 31 in January, Avila batted .264/.387/.447 with 14 homers in 376 plate appearances this past season. He also ranked second in the Majors in hard-contact rate (min. 300 PAs) and tied for 18th in average exit velocity (min. 100 batted balls). The Nationals, D-backs and Rockies are among the expected contenders that could add a new starting catcher, while several playoff clubs could look to augment their backup catching option.
A few more notes on some free agents…
- Brandon Kintzler also made an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM today and revealed that he’s been in touch with a number of clubs but has yet to receive a firm offer (Twitter link). The Nationals and Twins have both reportedly expressed interest in retaining Kintzler, and the pitcher himself revealed that his wife would love for him to sign in Arizona, though Kintzler didn’t specifically state that the D-backs had reached out to him. Moreover, while the former Twins closer would surely prefer a multi-year pact, he also expressed that he’d be comfortable betting on himself on a one-year deal if need be. “I feel like I’m not a guy who can be picky,” said Kintzler, a former 40th-round pick who played independent ball from 2006-09. “A few years ago, I was a minor league free agent just trying to get a job.”
- In need of a fifth starter, the Tigers have had preliminary talks with right-hander Chris Tillman, tweets Jon Morosi of MLB.com. The longtime Orioles righty is coming off the worst season of his career and represents a nice rebound option that the rebuilding Tigers could look to as a potential summer trade chip if he can regain his form. Tillman, 30 next April, had the start of his season delayed by shoulder problems and pitched to a ghastly 7.84 ERA with 6.1 K/9, 4.9 BB/9 and 2.32 HR/9 in 93 innings when healthy. While those numbers are tough to look at, the former second-rounder was Baltimore’s most consistent starter from 2012-16, when he pitched 844 2/3 innings of 3.81 ERA ball. From 2013-16, Tillman averaged 32 starts and 190 innings per season with a 3.91 ERA. MLBTR ranked him 47th on our top 50 free agent list, pegging him for a one-year, $10MM contract in Detroit.
- Carlos Ruiz will turn 39 years old in January, but he’s still hoping to return for another season in 2018, tweets ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick. “Chooch” spent the 2017 season in Seattle, where he batted .216/.313/.352 with three homer sin 145 plate appearances. He threw out a respectable 7 of 30 potential base thieves (23 percent) in his limited time behind the dish but also drew quite poor framing marks from Baseball Prospectus and StatCorner. That said, Ruiz maintained a solid 9.7 percent walk rate and has been lauded for his leadership and presence in the clubhouse over the years. For a club eyeing a more affordable backup option than Avila, he’d certainly make some sense.
Cafardo’s Latest: Stanton, Arrieta, JBJ, Zimmermann
The latest on Marlins right fielder Giancarlo Stanton comes from the Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo, who reports that the Red Sox currently have “tepid” interest in the NL MVP. Notably, Miami isn’t enamored of Boston’s farm system, per Cafardo, though he notes that the Marlins’ main motivation in trading Stanton would be to rid themselves of his contract. As such, one shouldn’t rule out Stanton to the Red Sox if they’re willing to take on a significant portion of the $295MM coming his way over the next decade.
While it’s unclear how much of Stanton’s deal the Red Sox would be open to absorbing, the Giants are “willing to take on a lot” of it, Cafardo writes. The Giants have shown more interest than anyone else in Stanton, Cafardo hears, and he adds that they’re prepared to exceed the luxury tax threshold for the fourth straight year if necessary. As of now, they and the Cardinals are the only known teams that have submitted offers to the Marlins to acquire Stanton.
More from Cafardo:
- In addition to the previously reported Brewers and Twins, the Blue Jays, Rockies and Rangers have shown interest in free agent right-hander Jake Arrieta, Cafardo relays. All of those teams have contacted agent Scott Boras about Arrieta, though it’s unclear how serious any of them are about the 31-year-old. The Rangers seem to have the greatest need for Arrieta, who MLBTR projects will land a nine-figure contract, but as Steve Adams pointed out when previewing their offseason, they don’t have a lot of payroll flexibility.
- The Giants, White Sox and Royals “will likely keep inquiring” about Red Sox center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. throughout the offseason, Cafardo contends. Each of San Francisco, Chicago and Kansas City have pursued Bradley recently, but the Royals already had Lorenzo Cain occupying center when they went after JBJ in 2015. Now, with Cain likely to depart via free agency, the fit between the Royals and the affordable Bradley is obvious. However, it’s fair to wonder whether the Royals have a good enough farm system to put together a deal for Bradley, who’s controllable through 2020 and will make around $5.9MM next season.
- The Nationals are interested in reuniting with righty Jordan Zimmermann, but the Tigers would unsurprisingly have to eat some of his contract, according to Cafardo. Zimmermann was at his best with the Nats from 2011-15, but he has experienced a sharp decline since signing a five-year, $110MM pact with Detroit entering the 2016 campaign. The 31-year-old has pitched to an ugly 5.60 ERA in 265 1/3 innings as a Tiger and is owed an unpalatable $74MM over the next three seasons.
- Dodgers first baseman Adrian Gonzalez has a full no-trade clause – not a partial NTC – agent Jim Boggs tells Cafardo. Regardless, coming off a back injury-shortened season in which he accounted for minus-1.1 fWAR in 252 plate appearances, finding a taker for Gonzalez, 35, figures to be a tall task for the Dodgers. LA may simply eat the $21.5MM Gonzalez is owed next season in order to jettison him, Cafardo suggests.