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Rays Claim Tyler Alexander From Tigers

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The Rays have claimed left-hander Tyler Alexander off waivers from the Tigers, according to announcements from both clubs. The Tigers had designated the lefty for assignment earlier this week.

Alexander, 29, will join a new organization for the first time in his career. He was selected by the Tigers in the second round of the 2015 draft and has been with that club in some fashion for close to a decade now. He pitched for the big league club in a swing capacity over the past five years, making 120 appearances since the start of 2019, including 43 starts. He logged 341 1/3 innings in that time with a 4.38 earned run average, 18.9% strikeout rate and 5.1% walk rate.

In 2023, he was moved to the bullpen on essentially a full-time basis, making just one start that lasted three innings. He threw 44 innings over 25 appearances in total with a 4.50 ERA, though perhaps deserved better. His 24.3% strikeout rate and 2.8% walk rate were both better than average, the latter number especially so. His 65.3% strand rate was a bit on the unlucky side, leading to ERA estimators looking at him through a relatively rosier lens, such as a 4.10 FIP and 3.48 SIERA.

In early July, Alexander landed on the injured list due to a left lat/shoulder strain and wasn’t able to return. There’s no injured list during the offseason, so the Tigers opted to cut him loose instead of adding him back onto the roster. It was effectively an early non-tender, with Alexander set to go through that process for a second time. He made $1.875MM in 2023 and MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a salary of $2MM in 2024.

It appears the Rays are willing to add Alexander at something near that price point, otherwise there would be little point in claiming him just before next week’s non-tender deadline. Assuming they plan to keep utilizing him out of the bullpen, he will join Colin Poche and Garrett Cleavinger as the club’s southpaw relief options. Alexander is still optionable and has another potential year of arb control remaining, perhaps allowing him to serve as a long-term depth piece for the Rays.

Tigers Notes: Rodriguez, Mize, Maton, Baddoo

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The Tigers face the potential loss of Eduardo Rodriguez, who officially opted out of his contract on Saturday. The move was entirely unsurprising with the left-hander in good position to land a much better deal than the three years and $49MM that remained.

MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweeted shortly before Rodriguez opted out that his camp had continued discussions with the Tigers about potentially reworking his contract. At this week’s GM Meetings, Detroit president of baseball operations Scott Harris confirmed that report but seemed to downplay the chance of re-signing Rodriguez now that he has reached free agency.

The Tigers’ front office leader told reporters the club’s valuation of the pitcher is “locked in” after two seasons in the Motor City (relayed by Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press). Asked whether the team would stay in contact with Rodriguez’s camp, Harris referenced rules prohibiting him from commenting on specific free agents before adding he “can wish him the best of luck in free agency.”

Should Rodriguez sign elsewhere, it stands to reason the Tigers would bring in a starter from outside the organization. Tarik Skubal looked like a top-flight starter when he returned from flexor surgery, but the rest of the rotation has a relatively brief track record at the MLB level. Reese Olson and Sawyer Gipson-Long showed promise as rookies. Matt Manning pitched to a 3.58 ERA but was limited to 15 starts by separate foot fractures. Former first overall pick Casey Mize missed the entire 2023 season recovering from June ’22 Tommy John surgery.

Detroit announced this evening that Mize has been throwing bullpen sessions without issue and is expected to have a normal offseason. The same can’t be said for infielder Nick Maton, who recently underwent an arthroscopic procedure to address a left knee problem. The Tigers haven’t indicated whether the issue could linger into Spring Training, noting only that Maton is currently in post-operation rehab. Acquired from the Phillies in last offseason’s Gregory Soto deal, the left-handed hitter ran a .173/.288/.305 line over 93 games during his first season as a Tiger.

In one other piece of roster news, Harris addressed the future of corner outfielder Akil Baddoo. The former Rule 5 draftee seemed a potential non-tender candidate, particularly after the club brought in Mark Canha to join Riley Greene and Parker Meadows in the outfield mix. Harris implied that Baddoo would be tendered a contract, telling the media (including Chris McCosky of the Detroit News) that the outfielder “still very much fits in” their plans. Baddoo, who hit .218/.310/.372 this past season, is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $1.7MM salary as a Super Two qualifier.

Tigers Exercise Club Options On Carson Kelly, Mark Canha; Designate Tyler Alexander For Assignment

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The Tigers announced a flurry of roster moves this afternoon. Chief among those was the team’s decision to exercise their 2024 club options on catcher Carson Kelly and outfielder Mark Canha. In addition, the club designated left-hander Tyler Alexander for assignment, assigned left-hander Andrew Vasquez and right-hander Trey Wingenter outright to Triple-A, and selected the contract of right-hander Keider Montero. There had been no prior indication that Vasquez or Wingenter had been on waivers, but each of them now figures to have the opportunity to become a minor league free agent.

In addition, the Tigers activated Alexander, outfielders Austin Meadows and Riley Greene, as well as right-handers Casey Mize and Freddy Pacheco from the 60-day IL.

It comes as no surprise that the Tigers exercised their $11.5MM option for Canha after they dealt for the veteran outfielder on Saturday. Given the $2MM buyout on his contract, it wouldn’t have made any sense for Detroit to trade for Canha (and give up 25-year-old righty Blake Holub) only to part ways with him two days later. He figures to play an important role in the team’s offense next season, presumably splitting his time between the corner outfield and DH.

As for Kelly, the Tigers were expected to pick up his $3.5MM option for 2024. At his end-of-season press conference, president of baseball operations Scott Harris said the team was seriously considering keeping the backstop in the fold. The team already has a starting catcher in place, 28-year-old Jake Rogers, so Kelly can serve as a capable defensive backup, with the potential to be a little bit more – the former top prospect is only two years removed from an above-average season at the plate. For $3.5MM, the Tigers weren’t going to find much more than that.

Alexander, 29, made 25 appearances for the Tigers in 2023, his first full season as a reliever. He pitched to a 4.50 ERA and a career-best 3.48 SIERA in 44 innings of work. Unfortunately, his solid season came to an early end when he landed on the IL with a shoulder strain in July.

Vasquez spent the first four months of the season with the Phillies, with whom he posted an impressive 2.27 ERA but less promising underlying numbers. He was designated for assignment shortly after the trade deadline, and the Tigers scooped him up. Unfortunately, he couldn’t find the same success in Detroit. Across 12 appearances, he gave up nine runs (eight earned) in just 8 2/3 innings of work. He missed most of September with a calf injury, although he made two scoreless appearances at the end of the month.

After spending most of the first half on the injured list, Wingenter made 17 appearances for the Tigers in 2023, his first big league action since 2019. His 5.82 ERA was troublesome, but his underlying metrics were actually quite encouraging: a 3.43 SIERA, a 3.87 xERA, and a much-improved 3.14 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Then again, he produced those numbers in mostly low-leverage spots, and apparently, the Tigers weren’t impressed enough with what they saw to keep Wingenter on the 40-man roster.

After seven years in Detroit’s minor league system, Montero would have been eligible to elect minor league free agency had the Tigers not added him to the 40-man roster this afternoon. He is coming off a difficult couple of months at Triple-A, but he is still just 23 years old, and evidently, the Tigers like what they have seen enough to keep him around. According to MLB Pipeline, he is the No. 26 prospect in the Tigers system.

Javier Baez Opts In To Final Four Years On Tigers’ Deal

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Tigers shortstop Javier Baez declined to opt out of his contract with the Tigers, writes Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press. He’ll be due $98MM over the next four seasons.

There was no suspense with the decision. Baez has struggled mightily since landing in Detroit. He owns a .230/.273/.361 line through the first two seasons of a six-year, $140MM free agent pact. That includes a .222/.267/.325 slash through 547 trips to the dish in 2023.

Baez is due $25MM annually over the next two seasons, followed by $24MM yearly salaries in 2026 and ’27. That contract would make it very difficult for the Tigers to trade him unless they pay the money down almost in entirety. Detroit could look to supplant Baez as the starting shortstop this offseason, although the weak free agent class at the position makes that more challenging than would be the case in a typical winter.

Mets Claim Zack Short From Tigers

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Former Tigers infielder Zack Short has been claimed on waivers by the Mets, the Tigers announced. This comes amidst a flurry of roster moves for the Tigers, who needed to open up several spots on the 40-man ahead of the deadline to move players off of the 60-day injured list, as well as the deadline to add players to the 40-man before they can elect minor league free agency.

Drafted by the Cubs in 2016, Short was traded to the Tigers in 2020 in exchange for veteran outfielder Cameron Maybin. He made his big league debut the following season, appearing in 61 games for Detroit and struggling his way to a .141/.239/.282 batting line. The utility infielder spent almost all of the 2022 season at Triple-A, but he made his way back to the majors in April 2023 and never looked back. While no one could argue his bat was an asset, he posted a much-improved .204/.292/.339 slash line while showing off his defensive versatility all over the diamond. By the end of the year, he had appeared in 112 games, occasionally as a starter but just as often as a pinch runner or mid-game defensive replacement. 

While his offense may never be a strength, Short draws walks well, and he can put his plus speed to work when he reaches base. Moreover, his defense might not stand out at any one position, but he is capable of covering second, third, and short, and even the outfield in a pinch. As long as he doesn’t regress at the plate, his flexibility could earn him another shot at MLB playing time next season, especially since he is out of minor league options.

In further Mets news, all six players the team placed on outright waivers last week have cleared, per Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. Bryce Montes de Oca and Peyton Battenfield have been sent outright to Triple-A and will remain with the organization, while Tim Locastro, John Curtiss, Elieser Hernandez, and Denyi Reyes have elected free agency.

Scott Harris Discusses Mark Canha Trade

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  • Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris spoke to reporters (including Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press and Chris McCosky of The Detroit News) yesterday regarding the club’s acquisition of veteran outfielder Mark Canha from the Brewers. During the conference, Harris noted that the addition of Canha checks the box of “adding a right-handed bat that helps [Detroit] on and off the field” in 2024. As Harris alluded to, Canha’s right-handed bat will serve as an excellent complement to an all-lefty outfield of Kerry Carpenter, Parker Meadows, Akil Baddoo, and Riley Greene while also affording fellow righty hitter Matt Vierling more opportunities to play at third base. Harris also praised the ability of Canha, 35 in February, to mentor the club’s young roster as a “high-character” player whose calling card is his superlative plate discipline, with strikeout and walk rates that are well above the league average. For Canha’s part, McCosky notes that the veteran praised the team’s young core, saying that “A team is never as far away from where they want to be as it feels like. All it takes is a little nudge.”

Tigers Acquire Mark Canha From Brewers

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The Tigers announced that first baseman/outfielder Mark Canha has been acquired in a trade with the Brewers.  Minor league reliever Blake Holub heads back to Milwaukee in return.

It can be assumed that Detroit will exercised the $11.5MM club option on Canha’s services for the 2024 season, which is essentially a $9.5MM decision since that option came with a $2MM buyout.  The trade saves the Brewers from at least that $2MM payout, while also bringing a 25-year-old reliever into the farm system.

Canha’s contract was initially established with the Mets, when the veteran inked a two-year, $26.5MM free agent deal during the 2021-22 offseason.  Canha’s 2022 season in New York was solid, though his performance dipped to a .245/.343/.381 slash line over 303 plate appearances in 2023 before the Mets dealt Canha to Milwaukee at the trade deadline.  The change of scenery sparked Canha’s bat, and he hit .287/.373/.427 over 204 PA for the Brew Crew to help Milwaukee capture the NL Central title.

It is fair to guess that the Brewers only viewed Canha as a rental piece, yet his performance probably gave the front office some second thoughts about whether or not to retain the nine-year veteran via the club option.  The $11.5MM price tag might’ve been simply a bit too high for the Brewers’ liking, plus Canha turns 35 in February and Milwaukee also has a bit of an outfielder surplus.  With those outfielders needing time in the corners and at DH, Canha might’ve been considered a luxury, even though the Brewers are still in clear need of some first base help heading into 2024.

Milwaukee fans may bristle at the idea of moving Canha for payroll purposes or for “just” a minor league reliever, yet Holub might be the type of under-the-radar bullpen arm the Brewers have had a knack for discovering in recent years.  A 15th-round pick for the Tigers in the 2021 draft, Holub posted a 6.23 ERA over 52 innings at the A-ball/high-A levels in 2022, but took a nice step forward this past season.  Over 65 1/3 combined innings at high-A and Double-A, Holub had a 3.03 ERA, 29.34% strikeout rate, and 6.56% walk rate.  The improved control is particularly noteworthy, considering how Holub struggled to avoid free passes in 2022.

Today’s trade marks one of the biggest moves made by Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris in his year-plus tenure, and the first sign that the Tigers could be planning to contend next year.  Granted, one year of Canha isn’t a huge expenditure, and Canha might very well find himself on the move again at the deadline if Detroit isn’t in the AL Central or wild card race.  However, Canha does add some veteran reinforcement to a young Tigers team, and his skillset is a fit in many ways for Detroit’s roster.

Spencer Torkelson has first base spoken for in the Motor City, but Canha can act as a right-handed hitting complement at DH or in the corner outfield for any of Kerry Carpenter, Riley Greene, Parker Meadows, or Akil Baddoo (who all swing from the left side).  Canha projects as the regular left fielder for the moment, with Carpenter at DH and Greene probably targeted for right field, depending on how the Tigers deploy Greene and Meadows between center and right field.  Matt Vierling, Andy Ibanez, and Zach McKinstry are also in the mix for corner outfield work, and with so many unproven commodities competing for jobs, Canha adds some stability to Detroit’s lineup.

In a related move, the Tigers yesterday also declined their $30MM club option on Miguel Cabrera for 2024, paying the future Hall-of-Famer $8MM in a buyout.  Cabrera had already announced his retirement and is now moving into a special assistant role with the team, so the buyout was just a formality.  It does officially end Cabrera’s 16-year run as a player in Detroit, while also ending the team’s financial commitment to the slugger.  With Cabrera’s eight-year, $248MM contract now off the books, it could allow Harris a bit more flexibility to spend, such as this trade to add Canha’s deal to the Tigers’ payroll.

Eduardo Rodriguez Opts Out Of Tigers Contract

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Left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez is returning to free agency, as the New York Post’s Jon Heyman (X link) reports that Rodriguez has opted out of the last three years and $49MM on his contract with the Tigers.

Today was the deadline for E-Rod to enact his opt-out clause, and it has long seemed like the southpaw would indeed take the opportunity to again test the market.  Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris said in early October that the club was first waiting on Rodriguez’s opt-out decision before discussing an extension, yet MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reported yesterday that the two sides were having some level of talks “about potentially restructuring his contract.”

The nature of these discussions might not be known now that Rodriguez has opted out, though the Tigers still hold exclusive negotiating rights with the lefty until Monday.  It would seem like a longshot if a new deal did come together with Rodriguez so close to being able to speak with other teams, yet he did express his love of playing in Detroit in August after E-Rod used his 10-team no-trade clause to reject a proposed deal to the Dodgers.

Rodriguez signed a five-year, $77MM deal during the 2021-22 offseason, as the Tigers splurged on both E-Rod and Javier Baez as a way of signalling that the team was ready to contend after a rebuilding period.  Instead, the Tigers stumbled to a 66-96 record in 2022, due to a punchless offense and a multitude of pitching injuries.  Rodriguez was hit by the injury bug in the form of a ribcage sprain, but his extended absence during the middle of the 2022 campaign was due to a family-related personal matter.  The Tigers put Rodriguez on the restricted list for most of that absence, and he ended up tossing only 91 innings (with a 4.05 ERA).

A pulley rupture in his left index finger put E-Rod on the injured list for a little over five weeks this season, but by and large, 2023 was a more normal year for the left-hander.  Rodriguez posted a 3.30 ERA over 152 2/3 innings, with a less-flattering 4.26 SIERA and a set of Statcast metrics that generally landed either slightly above or slightly below league averages.

It makes for an interesting comparison to Rodriguez’s last foray into free agency, when he landed that $77MM deal on the strength of some good underlying metrics, even though he had a 4.74 ERA over 157 2/3 frames for the Red Sox in 2021.  Without a qualifying offer impacting his market this time around, Rodriguez shouldn’t have much issue topping three years and $49MM, and another five-year pact seems very plausible since he doesn’t turn 31 until April.

However, geography might be a bit of a limiting factor for Rodriguez.  Staying close to his family on the East Coast was reportedly a reason E-Rod vetoed the trade to the Dodgers, so if he wasn’t willing to head west for just the remainder of the 2023 season, it’s probably not too likely that he’d join a team in the western U.S. for a longer term.  These feelings could potentially change once Rodriguez and his representatives fully gauge the market, yet for now, it would appear as though clubs in the east or more central (like Detroit) parts of the baseball world might have an advantage.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions: Pitchers

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The World Series will be completed in less than a week, which means the offseason is imminent. Almost right away, some key decisions will have to be made. Within five days of the World Series ending, contract options will need to be either exercised or declined and clubs will also have to choose whether or not to issue qualifying offers to eligible players.

A player is eligible for a qualifying offer if they have never received a QO before and spent the entire season with the same club. The value of the QO changes annually, calculated by taking the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. That means it generally rises as salaries increase over time, with this year’s QO expected to land around $20.5MM. If a player receives and rejects a qualifying offer, he becomes a free agent. If he then signs elsewhere, the signing team is subject to draft pick forfeiture and possibly other penalties, while their previous club receives draft pick compensation.

MLBTR is taking a look at the candidates, with one post focusing on the position players and this one looking at the pitchers.

No-Doubters

These five are slam dunks to receive and reject the qualifying offer. Ohtani won’t pitch in 2024 after undergoing elbow surgery, but he is still expected to hit and will perhaps return to the mound in 2025. As one of the best hitters in baseball and the potential for two-way contributions down the road, he’s in line for a record-setting contract. Nola is coming off a down season relative to his own standards but has an excellent track record that will put him in line for a nine-figure deal even with the QO attached. Gray’s total earning power will be capped somewhat by the fact that he turns 34 in a week but his excellent work in 2023 should be able to get him a new deal around $20MM per year over multiple seasons. Snell just wrapped up an excellent campaign, finishing with a 2.25 ERA that could see him net a second career Cy Young award. That sets him up for a huge payday even after rejecting the QO. Hader has been one of the best relievers in the game for a long time and could challenge Edwin Díaz for the biggest contract ever for a reliever.

Special Case

Kershaw has been eligible for a qualifying offer in each of the past two offseasons but didn’t receive one. That wasn’t a reflection of his performance but a sign of respect. In each case, Kershaw went into the winter not knowing if he wanted to come back to the Dodgers, jump to his hometown Rangers or retire. The Dodgers decided both times not to issue him the QO so that he wouldn’t have to make a rushed decision at the beginning of the offseason. Since Kershaw is once again undecided on his future, it seems fair to expect that the Dodgers will decline to extend the QO, though Kershaw would warrant one in a vacuum.

Possible Candidates

Lugo spent most of his career working out of the bullpen but hit free agency a year ago and drew plenty of interest as a starter. The Padres eventually brought him aboard via a two-year deal with a $15MM guarantee and incentives, as well as an opt-out after the first season.

The righty made the most of the opportunity, making 26 starts and logging 146 1/3 innings with a 3.57 earned run average. He stuck out 23.2% of batters faced, walked 6% and kept the ball on the ground at a 45.2% clip. There were some concerns about Lugo’s ability to hold up over a full season, both since he hadn’t had that kind of workload before and because he had a slight tear of his UCL in 2017 that wasn’t surgically addressed. But in 2023, Lugo made just one trip to the injured list, missing just over a month due to a calf strain.

Now that Lugo has proof of concept as a starter, he should have greater earning power than he did a year ago, even though he’s about to turn 34. Turning down the one year and $7.5MM left on his deal should be an easy call, but then the Padres will have a more difficult choice. It would be hard for Lugo to turn down a 2024 salary more than twice what he made in the prior season, so there would be a decent chance he accepts a QO. With the club reportedly looking to cut payroll, they may not want to take that chance.

Maeda has had his ups and downs in recent years but is heading into free agency with some momentum. He posted a 2.70 ERA in 2020 but then that figure jumped to 4.66 in 2021 before he underwent internal brace surgery on his elbow. He missed all of 2022 and then struggled early in 2023. In his fourth start of the season, he was shelled by the Yankees, allowing 10 earned runs in three innings. He was then placed on the injured list with a triceps strain while sporting an ERA of 9.00 for the year.

But after getting healthy, his results were much better. He was activated from the IL in late June and made 17 more appearances the rest of the way. He tossed 88 1/3 innings with a 3.36 ERA, 29% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate. Though his ERA for the whole year finished at 4.23, it seems fair to conclude that the early-season injury inflated that number.

The righty has never had a massive salary locked in. When he initially came over from Japan, the Dodgers signed him to an incentive-laden deal that guaranteed him $25MM over eight years. That came in the form of a $1MM signing bonus, $3MM salary each year and $6.5MM in incentives available each season based on games started and innings pitched. If he suddenly had a $20.5MM guarantee in front of him for his age-36 season, that would likely be very tempting.

The Twins aren’t one of the top payroll teams under normal circumstances and may need to cut back spending due to uncertainty around their TV revenues. They may not want to blow a huge chunk of their budget right at the beginning of the offseason, especially when their rotation is already in decent shape with Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack and Louie Varland currently pencilled in.

Wacha had some strong seasons earlier in his career with the Cardinals, but injuries became an issue more recently. He settled for a $3MM guarantee while joining the Mets for 2020, then was limited to 34 mediocre innings in the shortened season. The Rays took a shot on him in 2021 with another $3MM guarantee and he stayed healthy enough to log 124 2/3 innings with a 5.05 ERA. That relatively healthy campaign was enough to get him a one-year, $7MM deal with the Red Sox for 2022, and he then tossed 127 1/3 innings for that club with a 3.23 ERA.

He lingered on the open market for a while last offseason but eventually landed a four-year, $26MM guarantee from the Padres with a layered option structure. After the 2023 World Series, the Friars will have to decide whether or not to trigger two $16MM club options for 2024 and 2025, effectively a two-year, $32MM deal. If they decline, Wacha has a $6.5MM player option for 2024 and then $6MM player options for 2025 and 2026.

The righty is coming off another decent season. Though his shoulder landed him on the IL this year, just as it had in 2022 and 2020, he was able to make 24 starts and throw 134 1/3 innings with a 3.22 ERA. His 22.4% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate were both close to league average, though he may have benefitted from a .266 batting average on balls in play and 79.7% strand rate. His 3.89 FIP and 4.43 SIERA suggest his ERA might not be wholly sustainable.

As mentioned in the Lugo section above, the Padres are facing a budget crunch. Though they are likely pleased with Wacha’s results in 2023, would they want to give him a pay raise by triggering that option? If they pass on that, Wacha would likely turn down his player option and return to free agency. He would be eligible for a qualifying offer at that point, which would be a higher salary than the club option but on a shorter commitment. The Padres effectively have to decide between 1/20 or 2/32 or simply letting Wacha walk.

Long Shot

Some fans of the Yankees might shudder at the thought of the club bringing back Montas at a higher salary, but it’s not a completely crazy idea. Though he was hurt or ineffective from the moment he donned pinstripes, he’s not too far removed from some strong results. From 2019 to 2021, he posted an ERA of 3.51 over 336 innings pitched. In that time, he struck out 26.3% of batters faced, issued walks at a 7.3% clip and kept 43.7% of batted balls on the ground. Among pitchers with at least 300 innings pitched in that time, that ERA ranked him 21st in the majors. Even in 2022, prior to the infamous trade, he was still quite good. He registered an ERA of 3.18 in his 19 starts for the A’s that year.

Players returning from injury absences can often still find themselves big salaries on short-term deals. Noah Syndergaard got one year and $21MM from the Angels after missing most of 2020 and 2021 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Corey Kluber got $11MM from the Yankees even though he was 35 years old and made just eight appearances over the two previous campaigns. James Paxton got $10MM from the Red Sox under similar circumstances.

The Yankees have a couple of long-term contracts in their rotation with Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón. The latter hasn’t worked out well so far, with Rodón injured for much of 2023. The club needs rotation reinforcements with Michael King, Clarke Schmidt and Nestor Cortes pencilled into the back end, each of whom comes with some question marks. They could add another marquee free agent, but maybe they’d prefer to take a short-term flier on a player they have obviously liked for a long time, giving up four prospects to acquire him and Lou Trivino just over a year ago. They then agreed to a $7.5MM arbitration salary for 2023 even as questions about his shoulder lingered.

Though there’s an argument for the possibility, it ultimately seems like the odds are against this happening. The Montas trade has gone so poorly, both from an on-field perspective and a PR one, that it’s hard to envision the club doubling down. If Montas doesn’t receive the QO, he will likely be fielding one-year offers slightly below the $20.5MM salary range.

Ineligible

As mentioned up top, players are only eligible to receive the qualifying offer if they haven’t received one previously and also spent the entire year with just one MLB club. Rodriguez and Stroman, who can each opt out of their respective contracts, have each been issued a QO earlier in their career. Flaherty, Giolito and Montgomery were all traded midseason, which makes them ineligible as well. Players coming from other leagues aren’t eligible either, so Yamamoto and Imanaga won’t have the QO in play. For each of these pitchers, the lack of a QO helps their earning power since clubs won’t have to forfeit any draft picks to sign them.

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