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Astros Sign Jake Odorizzi

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The Astros have added the top player remaining in free agency, announcing an agreement with righty Jake Odorizzi. The deal is a two-year pact with a player option for the 2023 season. Odorizzi is represented by Excel Sports Management.

Odorizzi is guaranteed $23.5MM. That takes the form of a $6MM signing bonus, a $6MM salary in 2021, a $5MM salary in 2022, and a $6.5MM player option for 2023. The option comes with a $3.25MM buyout. Performance escalators can max the option out at $12.5MM while also bringing the potential buyout figure up to $6.25MM. Combining to make 30 appearances from 2021-22 will bring Odorizzi to just shy of $24MM over those two seasons in salary, while incentives could push the deal up to $30MM.

On top of the $5MM base salary for the 2022 season, Odorizzi would make $500K for reaching 100 innings pitched, $1MM apiece for throwing 110, 120, 130, 140, and 150 innings, with another $1.25MM if he reaches the 160 inning mark. The deal also contains some deferred money.

The addition of the player option is an obvious method of spreading out the contract’s luxury tax hit, similar to the Yankees’ recent agreements with Brett Gardner and Darren O’Day. With just a $3.25MM difference between the value of the option and the buyout, it’s highly unlikely Odorizzi exercises it two years from now. However, the player option pushes the contract’s guaranteed money out to three years, while still giving Odorizzi the chance to re-test free agency after 2022. That lowers the deal’s average annual value (which determines the luxury tax calculation) to a modest $7.83MM. Altogether, that brings the Astros’ CBT ledger for 2021 to around $203.6MM, per Cot’s Contracts. That keeps them barely below the $210MM tax threshold, albeit without leaving much room to make in-season additions without cutting payroll elsewhere on the roster if they’re adamant about not going over.

Moreso than paying additional dollars, the Astros’ bigger concern about the luxury tax may be more related to the draft-pick compensation penalties attached to teams that go over the CBT, as the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal recently noted.  With McCullers, Carlos Correa, and possibly Justin Verlander all in line to receive qualifying offers next winter, the Astros may be planning to reload their farm system with extra compensatory picks should these players all reject a QO and sign elsewhere.  Houston would also have to surrender a higher amount of draft and international signing bonus capital for signing a free agent who rejected a QO from another club.

Reports surfaced last week about Houston’s interest in Odorizzi, which seemed natural considering that Framber Valdez is in danger of missing the entire 2021 season after suffering a fractured ring finger on his throwing hand.  While nothing has been decided about Valdez’s status just yet, Odorizzi’s addition will help reinforce an Astros rotation that also includes Zack Greinke, Jose Urquidy, Lance McCullers Jr., and Cristian Javier.  More inexperienced options like Luis Garcia and Brandon Bielak will now project as Triple-A depth rather than be called upon to immediately contribute at the big league level.

Jake OdorizziOdorizzi doesn’t quite fit the Astros’ usual model of pitching acquisition, as he lacks the big spin rates that Houston has often favored in recent years.  It could be that the need to replace Valdez put Odorizzi on the team’s radar, and Astros GM James Click is quite familiar with Odorizzi from their time together in the Rays organization.  Houston will be gaining a veteran arm who has a track record of eating innings, though Odorizzi did pitch only 13 2/3 frames with the Twins in 2020 due to a series of minor injuries.

Blister problems, a ribcage strain, and being struck in the chest by a line drive resulted in three separate injured list stints for Odorizzi, bringing a sour end to what had been a pretty successful tenure in Minnesota.  Odorizzi posted a 4.01 ERA and an above-average 24.83K% over 323 1/3 innings in 2018-19, and chose to return to the Twin Cities in 2020 after accepting the team’s $17.8MM qualifying offer.

This decision to bet on himself didn’t entirely work out, as a more typical Odorizzi season in 2020 would have likely resulted in a longer and more lucrative free agent deal for the hurler (who turns 31 later this month).  With Odorizzi having control over his fate for the 2023 season, he ended up technically receiving the three-year contract he hoped to receive for much of the winter, though it took him almost a week into March to finally land the contract.

MLBTR ranked Odorizzi 11th on our list of the offseason’s top 50 free agents, projecting him for a three-year, $39MM deal.  The Twins, Giants, Angels, Red Sox, Cardinals, Mets, Phillies, and Blue Jays were among the many teams who had some level of interest in Odorizzi over the course of the offseason, with clubs joining and departing the hunt depending on other transactions.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan initially reported the sides had an agreement on a two-year contract with a 2023 player option. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com was first with the contract structure. Odorizzi’s former teammate, Trevor Plouffe, provided a breakdown of the incentive structure for the 2022 season. Jon Heyman of MLB Network was first to note the deferrals.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Astros Place Pedro Baez On Injured List

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  • The Astros have placed Pedro Báez on the injured list, per a team announcement. The move clears space on the 40-man roster for Jake Odorizzi, whose signing has been made official. While the club didn’t give a reason for Báez’s IL placement, it’s almost certainly related to COVID-19. The veteran reliever was one of eight Houston pitchers to leave the team last weekend as part of the league’s health and safety protocols. It isn’t clear if Báez was one of the players to have tested positive for the coronavirus; players can also be placed on the COVID IL for exhibiting symptoms or for exposure.

Latest On Alex Bregman

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  • Alex Bregman has been nursing a balky lefty hamstring in camp, and the Astros star tells MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart and other reporters that the injury first occurred in early January.  After being careful throughout the offseason and during Spring Training, Bregman felt his hamstring was around 90 percent healed and he is planning to soon get some games under his belt in preparation for Opening Day.  Bregman also noted that he has been “trying to clean up running form…whether it’s posture or working on my hips and stuff like that” to avoid more hamstring injuries in the future, as he missed over two weeks last season due to a right hamstring strain.

Cishek, Souza Less Likely To Make Astros After Odorizzi Signing

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  • Veterans Steve Cishek and Steven Souza Jr. are working to make the Astros’ roster out of camp, but their chances took a hit yesterday with the signing of Jake Odorizzi, writes the Athletic’s Jake Kaplan. Cishek would make a $2.25MM salary were he to make the team, while Souza would earn $1.15MM. The Astros very much prefer to stay under the luxury tax to avoid the worsening of the draft pick compensation they might receive if Carlos Correa, Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, or Lance McCullers Jr. are offered (and decline) a qualifying offer at year’s end. While the terms of Odorizzi’s deal are not yet known, it’s likely to take them close to the $210 luxury tax threshold.

Whitley Dealing With Sore Arm

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  • Forrest Whitley is again having a tough spring. His arrival in camp was initially delayed because of coronavirus intake protocols, and now he’s dealing with a sore arm, writes MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart. Whitley has struggled to get healthy and produce as expected for a top prospect, but there is still hope that he will establish himself at some point in 2021. He is on the Astros’ 40-man roster now, and while the stakes seem high for 2021, Whitley is still only 23 years old.

Roberto Osuna To Hold Showcase

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  • Roberto Osuna will hold a showcase for teams in the Dominican Republic on March 12th, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). Osuna is still just 26-years-old, but he made only four appearances with the Astros in 2020. After initially being diagnosed with an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery, Osuna sought a second opinion and chose to rehab the injury instead. Osuna, of course, was already a fairly high-risk signing – at least from an optics perspective – even before the injury because of a 75-game suspension under the MLB-MLBPA Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse Policy back in 2018. That said, when healthy, he’s been an incredibly productive bullpen arm, most recently leading the American League with 38 saves in 2019. He owns a 2.74 ERA and 2.76 FIP over 315 innings for his career.

Latest On Jake Odorizzi

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7:05pm: The Blue Jays, who were reportedly interested in Odorizzi during the offseason, remain in the mix, Heyman tweets. Other teams besides Houston and Toronto are also involved, per Heyman.

1:09pm: The Astros are among the teams “looking at” free agent right-hander Jake Odorizzi, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). Houston recently lost Framber Valdéz to a broken finger. There’s been no definitive word on how long Valdéz will be out, but Heyman reported yesterday the initial evaluation suggested he’ll require surgery, which could prove to be season-ending.

Odorizzi is the top starter remaining in free agency, so it’s natural the Astros would check in with his representatives. Adding him would undoubtedly help the current roster; as Ben Clemens of FanGraphs explored yesterday, Houston’s projected rotation now consists of Zack Greinke, Lance McCullers Jr., José Urquidy, Cristian Javier and Luis García. That’s a talented group but one light on major league track record at the back end. Beyond that quintet, Brandon Bielak and Forrest Whitley look like the top depth options. (Justin Verlander likely won’t pitch in 2021 after undergoing Tommy John surgery last September).

Teams are often forced to rely on seven or eight starters over the course of a typical season. This year, they’ll be faced with unprecedented challenges managing workloads coming off a shortened campaign. Greinke’s 67 innings in 2020 led the current projected rotation, so it’d be difficult to count on all (or perhaps any) of the group to go 160-plus innings in 2021.

Odorizzi himself is coming off an injury-ruined year. Three injured list stints (for an intercostal strain, a chest contusion, and blisters, respectively) kept him to just 13.2 innings across four starts for the Twins. That diminished workload probably limits Odorizzi’s innings total this year as well, but he’d add a usually-durable, productive starter to the mix. The 30-year-old averaged 165-plus innings per season from 2014-19 with a cumulative 3.88 ERA and solid strikeout (23%) and walk (8.2%) rates. A few of those years were spent with the Rays, where current Astros general manager James Click worked in the Tampa Bay front office.

That all makes for a logical match on paper, but it’s questionable whether the organization is willing to meet his asking price. Odorizzi was reportedly seeking a three-year deal in the $13MM – $15MM range annually earlier this offseason; he apparently remains content to wait out the market rather than move off that price point. That’s not an outlandish ask for a mid-rotation starter, but concerns about the luxury tax could keep the Astros from spending at that level.

Houston’s current $181MM payroll, as projected by Roster Resource, seems more than manageable for an organization that was set to spend over $210MM on players last season before prorating salaries. However, Heyman notes the Astros’ luxury tax ledger, which uses contracts’ average annual values rather than current year salaries, sits about $13MM shy of the first threshold ($210MM). It’s possible Houston could look into a longer-term deal with Odorizzi that lowers the AAV for tax purposes. Even that type of arrangement, though, would likely push the Astros right up to or over the tax barrier, perhaps necessitating other payroll-shedding moves to stay beneath the threshold and leave room for any in-season acquisitions.

It’s arguable the win-now Astros should be willing to pay the marginal taxes in order to take their best shot at a World Series in 2021. That doesn’t seem likely, though. Houston reportedly wasn’t particularly active in the bidding for free agent center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr., another obvious roster fit, because of luxury tax concerns. As Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic noted last month, exceeding the threshold would reduce the draft pick compensation Houston could receive for their slate of potential qualifying offer recipients (Carlos Correa and McCullers among them) next winter. Houston management apparently found that a deterrent, particularly with the organization being dealt significant draft penalties in 2020-21 due to the sign-stealing scandal. An Odorizzi signing would likely raise the same concerns.

Latest On Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez

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  • Third baseman Alex Bregman and designated hitter Yordan Álvarez haven’t yet gotten into spring training games for the Astros, but it doesn’t seem there’s much cause for concern. Bregman “tweaked” his hamstring and is taking things slowly, notes Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. The 26-year-old would be playing through the soreness if it were the regular season, he says. Álvarez is a little further from game action, per manager Dusty Baker (via McTaggart), although that seems to be mere caution after the young slugger underwent season-ending surgery on both knees last August.

Eight Astros Pitchers In COVID Protocols

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  • Health and safety protocols will keep eight Astros pitchers away from the team for the time being. Right-handers Bryan Abreu, Pedro Báez, Luis García, Cristian Javier, Francis Martes, Enoli Paredes and non-roster invitees Ronel Blanco and Hector Velázquez are all currently away from camp, manager Dusty Baker told reporters (including Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). Those players’ placement on the COVID-19 list does not mean they have tested positive for the coronavirus; a player can enter health and safety protocols due to exposure to someone who tested positive. Indeed, general manager James Click rejected the notion the team was suffering an outbreak, pointing out (via Rome) that the COVID protocols “cast a wide net” in an attempt to reduce viral transmission. There are no current plans to pause team activities, Click says.

Surgery Recommended For Framber Valdez

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March 4: The initial recommendation for treatment of Valdez’s injury is surgery, tweets Heyman. The recovery time on the recommended operation would be sizable enough that there’s concern the left-hander could miss the entire season, Heyman adds.

That’d register as a surprise, although we don’t know the extent of the fracture at this point or whether the imaging performed after that initial announcement revealed any additional damage. The club is still seeking further opinions.

March 3, 12:10pm: Valdez has been diagnosed with a fractured left ring finger, general manager James Click announced to reporters (Twitter link via FOX 26’s Mark Berman). There’s no timetable for his return yet, as he’s slated for additional tests and imaging.

11:58am: Astros lefty Framber Valdez is dealing with a finger injury, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports. The amount of time he’s expected to miss isn’t clear, as he’s still being evaluated by doctors, but Heyman adds that it’s believed to be “serious” and is expected to keep him out of action for awhile. Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle tweets that Valdez took a Francisco Lindor grounder off the hand during yesterday’s outing, though he pitched another inning after doing so.

An absence of any length for Valdez would be a tough hit for the Astros, who are already unlikely to get much of anything from Justin Verlander in 2021 after he underwent Tommy John surgery last year. Valdez stepped up in Verlander’s absence and played a huge part in Houston’s playoff run, breaking out with 70 2/3 innings of 3.57 ERA ball over the course of 11 appearances. The 27-year-old completed at least seven innings on six occasions and completed six frames in nine of his 11 outings.

Fielding-independent metrics suggest that Valdez’s 2020 breakout was even better than reflected in his ERA. Valdez’s 60 percent ground-ball rate was one of the best in the game, and his 26.4 percent strikeout rate and 5.6 percent walk rate were both markedly better than the league average. The lefty’s 2.85 FIP and 3.23 SIERA both suggest that his 2020 success was far from a fluke.

For the Astros, Valdez is expected to slot into the rotation’s top three alongside Zack Greinke, Lance McCullers Jr., Jose Urquidy and Cristian Javier. It’s a solid-looking group thanks to surprise showings from both Valdez and Javier in 2020, but the depth beyond that quintet lacks big league experience and/or success. Their most experienced options, Josh James and Austin Pruitt, are both on the mend from surgery. James had hip surgery in late October, which came with a six to eight month recovery period. Pruitt had elbow surgery in September and, as of January, was not expected to be ready for Opening Day.

Righty Brandon Bielak was hit hard in 12 appearances last year (six starts, six relief outings), and righties Luis Garcia and Bryan Abreu both have fewer than 15 MLB frames under their belts. Garcia did get the ball in a playoff game, but that was largely out of necessity. Prior to 2020, he’d yet to even pitch in Double-A.

Meanwhile, Tyler Ivey and Nivaldo Rodriguez are both on the 40-man roster, but Ivey has yet to pitch in the big leagues and Rodriguez only tossed eight innings of relief in 2020. Prospect Forrest Whitley is also on the 40-man, and he’s still considered a Top 100 farmhand even if his stock has tumbled over the past two years. Former Red Sox swingman Hector Velazquez is in camp as a non-roster player, but the Astros historically haven’t brought in many veterans on non-guaranteed deals and that’s again the case in 2021.

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