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Astros Sign Drew Butera

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The Astros announced they’ve signed catcher Drew Butera to a minor league contract. He’ll be assigned to Triple-A Sugar Land. Butera had been in the Angels’ organization but was released today, setting the stage for this new opportunity.

Butera provides some security for a Houston club that lost fellow catcher Jason Castro to the 10-day injured list last week. Martín Maldonado and Garrett Stubbs are the only other backstops on the 40-man roster. Adding Butera — a respected veteran presence and well-regarded defender — to the high minors offers some additional cover in case Castro doesn’t make it back to the field in the near future.

While Butera saw brief big league time with the Angels this year, he’s spent much of the campaign at Triple-A. The right-handed hitter has posted a .222/.328/.354 line in that hitter-friendly environment. Of course, Butera has never been known for his offense. The 38-year-old owns a career .196/.252/.290 slash over parts of twelve seasons in the majors.

It’s no coincidence the AL West-leading Astros added Butera tonight. Signing him before September 1 means he’ll be eligible for Houston’s postseason roster. For now, he’ll hang around in the high minors as an insurance option. Butera will reach free agency at the end of the season.

Astros Place Zack Greinke On COVID-19 Injured List

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The Astros are placing starter Zack Greinke and corner infielder Taylor Jones on the COVID-19 injured list, Mark Berman of Fox 26 was among those to pass along. Righty Josh James and infielder Robel García have been recalled in corresponding moves.

It isn’t yet clear whether either of Greinke or Jones has actually tested positive for the virus. Players can land on the COVID list for feeling viral symptoms or for exposure. However, manager Dusty Baker told reporters (including Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle) that Greinke won’t make his next scheduled start. Greinke last pitched on Sunday, when he was tagged for six runs in four innings against the Rangers. That brought his season line to a 3.66 ERA/4.55 SIERA across 159 2/3 innings.

That rotation spot could be filled by José Urquidy. The righty has been on a minor league rehab assignment for around two weeks. Urquidy, who has a 3.38 ERA in 77 1/3 innings, hasn’t pitched since June 29 because of shoulder discomfort.

West Injury Notes: Paddack, Gray, Ibanez, Ohtani, Astros

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Padres starter Chris Paddack appears to be ready to come off the IL to start Monday’s game in Arizona, according to Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune. Acee says that Padres manager Jayce Tingler didn’t confirm the plan, but then later listed Paddack as Monday’s starter on Twitter.

For Paddack, his third big league season has been a disappointing one, logging an ERA of 5.13 over 93 innings. That’s a spike from last year’s 4.73 and his 3.33 mark from 2019. His strikeout rate has also gone in the wrong direction. After a solid 26.9% rate in his debut season, it dropped to 23.7% last year and sits at 22.5% so far this year. However, his walk rate has stuck around 5% in every season, which is excellent. (MLB average is 8.7% this year.)

Despite those struggles, the team has certainly missed Paddack. Since the righty went on the shelf July 31st with an oblique issue, the team has been on a disastrous slide. They’ve gone 9-15 so far in the month of August, surrendering the final National League playoff spot to Cincinnati. During that time, the rotation was missing not only Paddack, but also Yu Darvish. They tried to patch over those absences with the addition of Jake Arrieta, only to see him land on the IL himself after just one start of 3 1/3 innings. With Darvish having already returned and Paddack on the way, that could allow the team to steady the ship and finish strong, as they try to retake the Reds over the season’s final weeks.

Other notes from the west…

  • Rockies starter Jon Gray left last night’s start after 48 pitches. Manager Bud Black told reporters, including Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post, that the move was precautionary and related to some forearm tightness. Nick Groke of The Athletic gets a bit more granular, explaining that the injured area appears to be away from the ulnar collateral ligament, hopefully negating the worst fears of Rockies fans. Though the extent of the injury remains to be seen, it makes sense for the club to be cautious, as they are 11 games out of a playoff spot. Gray is a free agent at year’s end, but the Rockies are reportedly hoping to sign him to an extension. They will also have to decide on whether or not to issue him a qualifying offer at the end of the season. Gray would surely warrant the offer if he’s healthy. Over 806 2/3 career innings, Gray has an ERA of 4.52 while pitching primarily in the most hitter-friendly ballpark in the league, producing 15.7 fWAR.
  • Rangers infielder Andy Ibanez left last night’s game with left hamstring tightness, per Kennedi Landry of MLB.com. She quotes Rangers manager Chris Woodward as being “not optimistic” about the injury. Regardless of the eventual severity of the injury, the club has every reason to be cautious, as they have one of the worst records in the league and no shot at contending. If this is the end of the season for Ibanez, it will go down as a solid rookie campaign for the 28-year-old. He’s hit .260/.304/.415, wRC+ of 96, while splitting time between first, second and third base, as well as one game in left field.
  • Shohei Ohtani was hit on the hand by a pitch in last night’s game, while serving as the designated hitter. However, he stuck around for the remainder of the contest and x-rays on the hand came back negative. Angels manager Jeff Madden told reporters, including Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register, that Ohtani should be fine to make his scheduled start on Tuesday. That is good news for the club and baseball fans in general, as Ohtani is having the most unique and fascinating season that baseball has seen in quite some time, if not ever. He’s currently the MLB home run leader with 41, and has an overall slash line of .264/.363/.623, producing a wRC+ of 160 which is currently bested by only two other qualified hitters. (Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bryce Harper) All of that is combined with Ohtani’s 105 innings in the Angels’ starting rotation with an ERA of 3.00.
  • The Astros could be getting a couple of players back this week. Jose Urquidy is pitching in a rehab game tonight, which could be his last before returning, according to Jake Kaplan of The Athletic. Urquidy has only been able to make 14 starts this season because of injuries but has been excellent when healthy, putting up an ERA of 3.38. It’s unclear who would be bumped from the rotation in his absence, but some have speculated that Luis Garcia could be an option. Garcia has already set a career high in innings pitched this year and has seen his results slip a bit recently. Since July 26th, he has an ERA of 4.22. The club has already moved another young starter, Cristian Javier, to the bullpen as a way to manage his workload. The Astros could also be welcoming Chas McCormick back later this week. General manager James Click told various reporters, including Mark Berman of Fox 26, that the outfielder could be back as soon as Friday. The club hasn’t suffered much in McCormick’s absence, given that Jake Meyers has been manning center field and has been on a tear. Since having his contract selected last month, in the first 20 games of his career, Meyers is slashing .323/.348/.523.

Astros Place Jason Castro On IL, Recall Garrett Stubbs

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The Astros have placed catcher Jason Castro on the injured list because of a knee injury, per Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. Fellow catcher Garrett Stubbs has been recalled to take his place.

Signed to a two-year, $7MM deal in the offseason, Castro has been serving as the club’s backup catcher, behind Martin Maldonado. In 55 games and 152 plate appearances, Castro has a line of .190/.320/.333, numbers that aren’t too far from his career line of .228/.313/.387. He’s long been known as a defense-first catcher, with the limited offensive output being part of the deal. However, as he’s aged and accrued more injuries, his defensive contributions have started to sag.

As for Stubbs, he’s been pushing the third string catcher experience to the max, having been optioned six times already this season, but only getting into nine big-league games for 25 plate appearances. In 34 Triple-A games this year, the 28-year-old has a s0lid line of .280/.415/.383, for a wRC+ of 110.

Astros Sign Marwin Gonzalez

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The Astros have brought infielder/outfielder Marwin Gonzalez back to the organization on a minor league contract, per a club announcement. He’ll head to the team’s Spring Training complex to work out for now. The Red Sox released Gonzalez earlier this month, and he hasn’t played in a game since Aug. 12, so he’ll get some work in there and perhaps be assigned to a minor league affiliate before being considered for the MLB roster.

Gonzalez, 32, spent the first seven seasons of his career in Houston, never really settling into one spot on the diamond but bouncing all around the field as a versatile utility option. After struggling at the plate through his first two seasons at the MLB level, Gonzalez settled in as a roughly average hitter from 2014-16 before a massive season at the plate in 2017, when he hit .303/.377/.530 with career-bests in home runs (23), doubles (34) and walk rate (9.6 percent).

In four seasons since that time, however, Gonzalez has turned in a pedestrian .240/.310/.376 output, and his struggles have been particularly evident over the past two seasons. Dating back to 2020 — the second season of a two-year, $21MM contract he signed in Minnesota — Gonzalez has combined for a dismal .206/.284/.300 batting line. This season’s 25.8 percent strikeout rate through 271 plate appearances is the highest of his career by about three percent.

There’s little harm in the Astros taking a look at a player they know well — particularly one who can bounce around the diamond and fill a versatile bench role in September when rosters expand from 26 to 28 players. Gonzalez hasn’t shown much at the plate recently, but if he’s able to return to the even average levels of offense he’s provided outside of that 2017 campaign, he’d be a nice addition both for the month of September and for the playoffs. The mere fact that he’s in the Astros’ organization prior to Sept. 1 makes him eligible for the postseason roster — even if he’s not selected to the Majors until sometime next month.

Justin Verlander And The Qualifying Offer

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It’s always been a long shot that Justin Verlander would be able to return in 2021, but Astros general manager James Click confirmed to Sean Salisbury of SportsTalk 790 AM in Houston this morning that Verlander won’t pitch for the team down the stretch (link via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle).

Click tells Salisbury that Verlander recently inquired with his doctors about the possibility and was “strongly advised” against attempting a comeback in 2021, as such a quick turnaround would carry “tremendous risk for the efficacy of the surgery.” Verlander had previously spoken with a hint of optimism about returning as a reliever in the season’s final weeks.

Verlander tweeted back in May that he planned to continue pitching “for a long time” and hasn’t considered retirement, but it’s not yet clear where he’ll continue his career. The 38-year-old (39 in February) is set to hit the open market at season’s end, though the ’Stros will first need to determine whether they want to make a qualifying offer to Verlander.

A one-year offer in the $19MM range would normally be deemed steep for any pitcher coming off a season spent rehabbing Tommy John surgery, but Verlander is, of course, no ordinary pitcher. He’s only pitched six innings since Opening Day 2020, but Verlander is a two-time Cy Young winner, a three-time Cy Young runner-up, an eight-time All-Star and a former American League MVP. His last full season, pitched at 36 years of age in 2019, saw him rack up 223 innings of 2.52 ERA ball en route to the second of those two Cy Young wins.

A straightforward path for Verlander may be to simply accept a payday in the $19MM range — if offered — and remain in a setting where he’s clearly comfortable. That sum checks in well north of the recent bounceback salaries we’ve seen for similarly high-profile names like Corey Kluber ($11MM), so there’d be good reason for him to consider it. On the other hand, it’s a pretty sizable cut from Verlander’s prior $33MM salary, and the veteran may simply want to test the free-agent market for the first time in his career. Verlander has played out his entire career on a series of extensions with the Tigers and Astros, so he’s never explored the open market.

The question for the Astros, meanwhile, is whether they’d want to invest $19MM (or thereabouts) into a soon-to-be 39-year-old pitcher who has made just one start since winning that Cy Young Award in 2019. There aren’t many more appealing players on whom to take a one-year flier than Verlander, but the Houston payroll is already rather large.

[Related: 2021-22 Qualifying Offer Candidates]

The Astros have just under $97MM on the books in 2022, and that’s before arbitration raises to Framber Valdez (first time eligible), Josh James (first time), Phil Maton (second time), Ryne Stanek (second time), Rafael Montero (third time) and Aledmys Diaz (third time). That $97MM number also doesn’t include club options for Yuli Gurriel ($8MM) or Ryan Pressly ($10MM) — both of which seem sure to be picked up, barring a late injury. None of those arb-eligible players will break the bank in terms of 2022 salary — some could obviously be non-tendered, too — but those smaller salaries will begin to add up.

Furthermore, the Astros will have some big names to replace. Carlos Correa is a free agent and could land elsewhere after rejecting the team’s extension overtures in Spring Training. Consummate innings eater Zack Greinke is set to hit the market as well, and the Astros also stand to lose relievers Kendall Graveman, Yimi Garcia and Brooks Raley to free agency. If Verlander were to accept a qualifying offer, the Houston payroll could jump north of $140MM before the team even looks at replacing Correa or any of the departing relievers. Their 2021 payroll currently sits at about $189MM.

The in-house rotation depth the Astros already possess is also a factor in determining whether to extend a qualifying offer to Verlander. Even with a pair of likely Hall of Famers potentially departing (Greinke, Verlander), the Astros can still boast a staff of Lance McCullers Jr., Luis Garcia,Valdez, Jake Odorizzi, Cristian Javier and Jose Urquidy. That’s before even considering upper-level arms like Hunter Brown and Peter Solomon. There’s an argument to be made that dedicating a sizable portion of available offseason resources to a rebound candidate in the rotation — even one with as much upside as Verlander — shouldn’t be the team’s priority.

We know the Astros are going to make a qualifying offer to Correa, and as one of the top free agents on the market, he’ll reject that QO without a second thought. Verlander is a closer call, but the Astros will surely be intrigued by the possibility of getting a compensatory pick after their recent penalties in the draft (stemming from the 2017 sign-stealing scandal). Plus, even with the in-house options they do have, a one-year deal for Verlander has plenty of appeal. The Astros could, and probably should, just extend the qualifying offer and be happy with either outcome.

What do MLBTR readers think? (Links to both polls)

Astros To Activate Alex Bregman From Injured List

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The Astros will reinstate star third baseman Alex Bregman from the injured list before tomorrow afternoon’s game against the Royals, manager Dusty Baker told reporters (including Mark Berman of Fox 26). It’ll be Bregman’s first game action in over two months, as the 27-year-old hasn’t played since straining his left quad on June 16.

Through 262 plate appearances, Bregman is hitting .275/.359/.428 with seven home runs. That’s not too dissimilar from the .242/.350/.451 mark he logged across 180 trips to the plate in last year’s shortened campaign. Obviously, Bregman’s output over the past two years falls well shy of the MVP-caliber form he showed in 2018-19. But he’s still been a well above-average performer since the start of 2020, and it seems reasonably plausible Bregman could find something resembling his past star-level form down the stretch.

The Astros’ win over Kansas City this evening pushed their lead in the American League West out to four and a half games over the Athletics. That’s a fairly comfortable margin, and Bregman’s return will only improve the club’s chances of holding onto that lead. Aledmys Díaz, who has mashed in Bregman’s stead over the past few weeks, figures to return to a super-utility role as a versatile, high-end bench bat whom Baker can deploy around the diamond.

Health Notes: Tucker, Escobar, Longoria, Carlson

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The Astros activated outfielder Kyle Tucker from the COVID-19 injured list before this evening’s game against the Royals. Fellow outfielder Chas McCormick landed on the 10-day injured list with left hand soreness in a corresponding move. Tucker, who has been out since August 14, confirmed to reporters (including Brian McTaggart of MLB.com) he’d tested positive for the coronavirus. The 24-year-old has had a stellar season at the plate, hitting .272/.334/.519 with 22 homers over 420 plate appearances. McCormick has also had a quality year, positing a .260/.319/.466 line and earning a larger share of playing time in center field following Houston’s trade of Myles Straw to the Indians at the deadline. Fellow rookie Jake Meyers looks likely to handle center while McCormick’s out of action. The Astros hold a four-game advantage over the A’s in the AL West.

More on other notable health situations around the league:

  • The Brewers placed infielder Eduardo Escobar on the 10-day injured list with a right hamstring strain this afternoon. Manager Craig Counsell told reporters (including Adam McCalvy of MLB.com) the expectation is that Escobar will be sidelined for around two weeks. Escobar has continued to perform well since being traded from the Diamondbacks to Milwaukee, hitting .280/.337/.451 over 89 plate appearances. Luis Urías should step back in at the hot corner on a daily basis while Escobar’s sidelined. Milwaukee holds a comfortable seven and a half game lead over the Reds in the NL Central entering the clubs’ series this week.
  • The Giants activated third baseman Evan Longoria from the COVID-19 IL to instead place him on the 10-day IL with a right hand contusion. Longoria had only been on the COVID IL for a couple days after experiencing vaccine side effects, but he’s now in line to miss at least a week and a half with his current hand issue. Longoria just made it back from a two-month absence due to a shoulder strain last week, but he was hit by a pitch during last Wednesday’s game. When healthy, Longoria has been fantastic this season, hitting .289/.382/.526 with ten homers across 199 plate appearances. His performance has been among the reasons for San Francisco’s three-game advantage over the Dodgers in the NL West. To temporarily open 40-man roster space for Longoria, the Giants placed Kevin Gausman on the COVID IL. Gausman is dealing with vaccine side effects himself, but there’s no indication he won’t be ready for his scheduled start on Friday against the Braves. San Francisco will need to make a 40-man transaction at that point.
  • The Cardinals welcomed outfielder Dylan Carlson back from the injured list today. The 22-year-old missed just under two weeks with a right wrist issue. Carlson has had a nice rookie season, hitting .261/.341/.419 while seeing action at all three outfield spots. With Harrison Bader healthy, Carlson can stick in a corner role for which he’s better suited. St. Louis trails the Reds by four and a half games for the National League’s final playoff spot, so continued above-average offensive output from Carlson would be a boon if the Cards are to make a surprise playoff push over the season’s final few weeks.

AL West Notes: Astros, Bregman, Angels, Trout, A’s, Brown, Piscotty

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The Astros are expected to activate star third baseman Alex Bregman from the injured list on Monday, per Jon Heyman of the MLB Network (via Twitter). That should be welcome news for the Houston faithful. The Astros have been without Bregman since June 17th when he suffered a quad strain. He will play what could be a final rehab game for Triple-A Sugar Land tomorrow, tweets Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle. The Astros have held up without Bregman, but with just a 2.5 game lead over the A’s in the West, Dusty Baker’s squad could certainly use another big bat. Speaking of those Athletics…

  • Seth Brown wasn’t gone for long. The A’s outfielder was optioned to Triple-A yesterday, but he’s back on the active roster today, replacing Stephen Piscotty, who heads to the 10-day injured list with a sprained left wrist, the team announced. Brown steps right into the starting lineup today playing right field. Piscotty, meanwhile, is suffering through the worst season of his career, slashing .220/.282/.353 in 173 plate appearances — an output worth -0.6 rWAR.
  • Mike Trout is running about every other day, and though he’s nearing a rehab assignment, a date has not yet been set, per Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com (via Twitter). The Angels are exactly .500 at 62-62, which puts them 11 games out of first and 8.5 out of a playoff spot. Trout doesn’t exactly have to hustle back for the playoff race, then, though the Halos do have a chance to finish above .500 for the first time since 2015. Trout has been out since May 18th with a calf strain, though the superstar refers to the injury as a tear.

2021-22 Qualifying Offer Candidates

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With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror and a little more than six weeks remaining in the regular season, plenty of front offices are turning their attention towards the upcoming offseason. The first notable decision for many clubs will be to decide whether to tag one or more of their top impending free agents with a qualifying offer.

As a reminder, the qualifying offer is a one-year contract offer teams can make to certain impending free agents. The precise value of the QO has yet to be calculated, but it’s determined as the average salary of the game’s 125 highest-paid players. Last season, the QO value was set at $18.9MM. If the player accepts the offer, he returns to his current team on that one-year deal. If he rejects, his previous team would receive draft pick compensation should he sign elsewhere.

Last season, six players (George Springer, Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, DJ LeMahieu, Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman) received qualifying offers. Gausman and Stroman accepted the QO, while Realmuto and LeMahieu re-signed with their current clubs as free agents. The Reds and Astros received compensatory picks (used on Jay Allen and Chayce McDermott, respectively) when Bauer and Springer departed.

The collective bargaining agreement prohibits a player from being tagged with a qualifying offer multiple times in his career. (A list of every active big leaguer who has previously received a QO is available here). Similarly, in order to be eligible, the player must have spent the entire preceding season on the same team. Players traded midseason cannot be tagged with a QO.

With the majority of the 2021 season in the books, we can take a look at the upcoming free agent class to predict which players might wind up receiving qualifying offer this winter.

Locks

This group is fairly straightforward, as there’s very little chance any of these players would accept a qualifying offer. Correa, Seager and Freeman all have MVP-caliber upside and are locks to pull in long-term deals this winter. Semien didn’t receive a QO from the A’s after a down year in 2020, took a pillow contract with the Jays for almost the value of the QO ($18MM), and has essentially replicated his 2019 form that earned him a third place finish in AL MVP voting. He should find a big multi-year deal this time around.

Story is having a bit of a down year, but there’s no doubt the Rockies will make him a qualifying offer after not trading him at the deadline. Nick Groke of the Athletic wrote this week that Colorado hasn’t given up hope of convincing him to sign a long-term extension, but that seems unlikely given Story’s own bewilderment he wasn’t moved to a contender this summer. Whether Story is willing to return to Denver or not, he’ll receive a QO.

Kershaw, Ray and Rodón will be among the top pitchers on the market. Kershaw has spent the past couple months on the injured list due to forearm soreness, but he’s expected back in September and is in the midst of another fantastic season. So long as he’s healthy, he’s a lock for a QO. Ray and Rodón both had to settle for one-year deals after poor 2020 seasons, but they’ve each been among the best pitchers in the American League this year.

Likely

Over the past two seasons, Taylor has somewhat quietly been one of the game’s top 25 qualified hitters by measure of wRC+ and he’s versatile enough to cover any non-catcher position on the diamond. He’s not a true everyday player at any one spot and he’s making contact at a career-worst rate this season, so he falls just short of being an absolute lock for a QO. But the Dodgers would be as willing as any team to shoulder a significant one-year salary were Taylor to accept, and his body of work should be sufficient to warrant a multi-year deal regardless.

The Mets’ players in this group are two of the more interesting free agents in the class. Conforto entered the season looking like a lock for a QO and seemingly having a chance at landing nine figures with a strong platform year. He missed a month with injury, though, and hasn’t made anywhere near his typical level of impact at the plate. He’s shown some life over the past few weeks, and between his track record and age (28), Conforto still seems a good bet to land a long-term deal.

Syndergaard was a top-of-the-rotation starter at his peak, but he hasn’t pitched since 2019 because of Tommy John surgery. He’s eyeing a September return — likely in relief, given his dwindling time to build up arm strength — and his late-season form will obviously be critical to his market. The Mets should run one of the higher payrolls in the league, and Syndergaard has the upside to be an ace if healthy, so New York still seems more likely than not to make the offer.

Similarly, Verlander has essentially missed two full seasons because of his own Tommy John procedure. That’s a scary development for a pitcher who’ll be 39 on Opening Day 2022, but he was still every bit an ace when we last saw him in 2018-19. The Astros are a win-now club that runs high payrolls, so Verlander accepting a QO wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. If he declines and signs elsewhere, Houston would recoup some much-needed draft compensation after losing their past two first-round picks as punishment for the sign-stealing scandal.

Colorado reportedly showed even less interest in trading Gray than they did with Story at the deadline. There’s apparently mutual interest about working out a multi-year extension, and the QO could serve as a temporary measure to keep Gray in Denver while the Rockies and Gray’s representatives work on a long-term deal.

Rodríguez has bounced back to take the ball every fifth day this year after a scary bout with myocarditis cost him all of 2020. His ERA’s pushing 5.00, but his peripherals are far better than that bottom line run prevention and the southpaw has an established track record of mid-rotation production.

The Mariners are facing a difficult decision regarding Kikuchi, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored last month. Seattle must decide whether to exercise a package deal of four successive club options at $16.5MM apiece (essentially a four-year, $66MM extension) this winter. If the Mariners don’t exercise their four-year option, Kikuchi has a $13MM player option to return to Seattle for 2022. If both parties decline their ends, the 30-year-old would hit free agency this offseason, although the M’s could then tag Kikuchi with a qualifying offer.

Given that Kikuchi will only be a free agent if he passes on a $13MM player option, the Mariners would likely make him a QO worth a few million dollars more if it comes to that — either with the expectation he’ll decline in search of a longer-term deal, or with the hope he accepts and Seattle can keep him in the fold next season without committing themselves to the additional three years of guaranteed money.

Possible

The Giants have plenty of payroll space this offseason and seem likely to try to keep most of this season’s core together. Belt has been one of the sport’s most productive offensive players on a rate basis over the past two years. But he’s also 33 years old, has a long injury history and is striking out at the highest rate of his career.

San Francisco bought low on DeSclafani over the winter after he had a tough 2020 season with the Reds. He’s bounced back to post a very strong 3.26 ERA, although his peripherals are closer to average and he’s benefitted from opponents’ .257 batting average on balls in play. The Giants will likely see 4/5 of their starting rotation hit free agency this winter, so they could be eager to bring DeSclafani back, even if that comes via a lofty 2022 salary.

Morton has had another productive season in his first year as a Brave, but his previous two teams (the Astros in 2018 and the Rays in 2020) let him reach free agency without making a qualifying offer despite his consistently strong track record. That’s presumably due to concerns about his past injury history and age. He’ll turn 38 this winter and might check his potential earning power by limiting himself to teams in the Southeastern part of the country — as he reportedly did last offseason. That could inspire the Braves to pass on a QO, but Morton continually reels off above-average performances, and this is an Atlanta front office that has been eager to dole out hefty single-year salaries for key veteran upgrades in recent years.

Iglesias looks like the top impending free agent reliever (assuming the White Sox exercise their option over Craig Kimbrel). He’s sporting an ERA under 3.00 for the fifth time in his six seasons since moving to the bullpen, and he’s never had a single-season SIERA above 3.55. Home runs have been an issue, but Iglesias gets above-average results year in and year out and has some of the best strikeout and walk numbers in the game in 2021.

Long Shots

The Giants hold a $22MM club option (with a $3MM buyout) over Posey’s services for next season. If the front office is willing to commit him a significant salary, they’ll just exercise the option rather than going the QO route. Indeed, they’re reportedly planning to do exactly that (or to potentially pursue a multi-year extension with the franchise icon). Either way, there’s no real reason to involve the qualifying offer here.

Canha would be a very plausible qualifying offer candidate on many teams. He’s been a well above-average hitter and overall performer three years running and is generally one of the game’s more underrated players. The A’s, though, didn’t make a QO to either of Semien or Liam Hendriks last season. Canha’s a Bay Area native, and his age (33 in February) will cap the length of offers he receives from other clubs. Given that, it’s not hard to envision him accepting a QO if offered. The A’s, who perennially run low payrolls and will have a loaded class of arbitration-eligible players this winter, don’t seem likely to take that risk.

Wainwright has had a fantastic 2021 season, and the Cardinals figure to be motivated to keep the franchise icon in St. Louis in some capacity. But that also looked to be true after his strong 2020 campaign, and Wainwright only wound up landing a one-year, $8MM deal. He’d be well-deserved in demanding a raise over that sum to return next season, but it remains to be seen if the Cardinals would be willing to chance more than doubling his salary  — particularly if they feel Wainwright’s motivated to remain in St. Louis rather than pursue the highest possible offers in free agency.

Kluber signed an $11MM deal with the Yankees last offseason after back-to-back seasons wrecked by injury. He pitched well through ten starts but has been out since late May with a shoulder strain. Kluber’s nearing a return to action, but his missing nearly three months only adds to prior concerns about his ability to handle a significant workload at this stage of his career.

Kim, García and Wood are all having strong 2021 seasons and could plausibly land solid multi-year deals this winter. Each has enough question marks that their teams don’t seem especially likely to offer a salary in the range of the qualifying offer, though. Kim doesn’t miss many bats; García has had extreme highs and lows throughout his career; Wood has a checkered injury history. García’s contract contains a $12MM club option that vests into a mutual option if he reaches 492 plate appearances this season. If that option doesn’t vest, the Brewers would obviously have no incentive to decline the option only to make a qualifying offer at a higher price point.

Opt-Out Clauses

Each of Arenado (six years, $179MM), Castellanos (two years, $34MM) and Martinez (one year, $19.35MM) has significant guaranteed money remaining on their contracts but can opt out of those deals this winter. Arenado and Castellanos would be locks to reject qualifying offers if they trigger their opt-out provisions, since they’d be foregoing bigger guarantees to test the market.

Martinez’s player option is of similar enough value to the projected value of the qualifying offer that he could plausibly trigger the opt-out but then accept a QO. Even if that proved to be the case, the Red Sox would probably be happy to keep him in the middle of the lineup for another season.

Ineligible

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