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Poll: Who’s Going To Win The World Series?

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It took 162 games to decide things, but given all of the uncertainty heading into the final day of the regular season, it is perhaps an upset that a 163rd game (or even a 164th) wasn’t required.  However, the field for the 2021 postseason has now been decided.

The Giants outpaced the Dodgers in a stunning NL West pennant race.  San Francisco shocked the baseball world by winning 107 games, the most victories in the franchise’s 139 seasons.  As a reward, the Giants will get a few days to rest and prepare for the NL Division Series opener on Friday, while Los Angeles (with a whopping 106 wins) will now have to sweat out a single-game eliminator against the hottest team in the sport.

The Cardinals roared into the NL wild card game thanks to a 35-16 record over their last 51 games, including a franchise-record 17-game winning streak.  The Dodgers will host the Cards on Wednesday, and while the two clubs are postseason regulars, this will be their first meeting in the playoffs since 2014.

After a season of tributes to the late Henry Aaron, perhaps it was destiny that Milwaukee and Atlanta would do battle in the postseason for the very first time.  The 95-67 Brewers will host the 88-73 Braves in Game One of their NLDS meeting, which begins on Friday.

The Brewers caught fire in midseason and ran away with the NL Central, topping St. Louis by five games even despite the Cards’ late surge.  Despite a few shaky moments along the way, the Braves nonetheless overcame the loss of injured superstar Ronald Acuna Jr. to capture their fourth straight NL East title.

“Champa Bay” has already collected two Stanley Cups and a Super Bowl within the last two years, and the 100-62 Rays will look to add a World Series title to the local trophy case.  The Rays will start their journey in the AL Division Series on Thursday, and they’ll be facing off against a familiar AL East opponent, no matter who wins the AL wild card game.

That opponent will be decided on Tuesday, as the Yankees and Red Sox will add another chapter to their rivalry by meeting in the wild card game for the first time.  Both New York and Boston won today to clinch their postseason berths, finishing with identical 92-70 records (and holding off the 91-win Blue Jays and the 90-win Mariners).  Because the Sox won the season series by a 10-9 margin, Tuesday’s game will take place at Fenway Park.

The Astros and White Sox will square off in the other ALDS matchups, meeting for the first time in the postseason since Chicago defeated Houston in the 2005 World Series.  The 95-67 Astros have the homefield advantage over the 93-69 White Sox, and this series will mark the first-ever postseason meeting between veteran managers Dusty Baker and Tony La Russa.

Now that we know which 10 teams will be continuing into October, the question remains….who do you think will be the last team standing at the end of October? (Link to poll for app users)

Who will win the 2021 World Series?
Giants 18.31% (6,375 votes)
Dodgers 16.69% (5,811 votes)
Rays 13.92% (4,847 votes)
Cardinals 10.28% (3,581 votes)
Braves 9.63% (3,354 votes)
White Sox 9.17% (3,195 votes)
Brewers 7.00% (2,439 votes)
Astros 5.79% (2,016 votes)
Yankees 5.25% (1,827 votes)
Red Sox 3.96% (1,379 votes)
Total Votes: 34,824

Astros Activate Zack Greinke

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The Astros have activated Zack Greinke, according to manager Dusty Baker, as relayed by Mark Berman of Fox 26. Right-handed pitcher Brandon Bielak was optioned in a corresponding move.

Today’s game has no meaning for the club in terms of the standings, as they have already clinched both a division title and home-field advantage for their upcoming ALDS matchup with the White Sox. That means they will be free to deploy Greinke in whatever manner they feel best prepares him for his role in that series. Recently, Baker acknowledged the possibility of Greinke being used out of the bullpen during the postseason. This is partially due to the fact that Greinke’s routine has been disrupted by two separate IL stints in recent weeks. He first went on the COVID-related IL August 31st and returned September 14th. However, after making just two starts, he then went on the IL with neck soreness, retroactive to September 19th. Greinke then pitched a rehab outing in the minors on September 30th, throwing just 34 pitches over two innings.

However, even if Greinke were fully stretched out, it could be reasonably argued he is not one of Houston’s top four starters this season, despite his lengthy track record of success. In 168 2/3 innings this year, the 37-year-old (turning 38 on October 21st) has an ERA of 4.11 with a flimsy strikeout rate of 17%, although his walk rate is still superb at 5.2%. That performance seems to put him behind Houston’s other hurlers such as Lance McCullers Jr., Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia, Jose Urquidy and Jake Odorizzi, for consideration to be in the playoff rotation.

Greinke being healthy and effective would help the club by giving them another option out of the bullpen, but it also has ramifications for Greinke himself, as he is slated to reach free agency after this season. A quality playoff performance, or lack thereof, could impact the amount of interest he garners in the offseason.

Free Agent Notes: Correa, Iglesias, Rodriguez

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The upcoming free agent shortstop market has been talked about for awhile now, and we’re still a few months off from seeing how the whole thing plays out. Perhaps the most coveted of the soon-to-be available shortstops is the Astros’ Carlos Correa. One potential match for Correa’s services will be the Tigers, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman.

The Tigers are an up-and-coming team with plenty of financial flexibility, and it’s certainly interesting to think about Correa once again teaming up with his former skipper A.J. Hinch. As hard as it is to imagine Correa leaving Houston, they do have prospect Jeremy Pena waiting in the wings, making an exit at least feasible. The Tigers, meanwhile, have one of the most open shortstop situations in the game, with incumbent Niko Goodrum easily able to shift into a super-utility role.

Angels’ closer Raisel Iglesias figures to be another in-demand free agent this winter. His priority, however, is re-signing with the Angels, writes Jeff Fletcher of the Orange-County Register. Iglesias made the most of his first season with the Angels, tossing 69 innings in 64 appearances with a 2.61 ERA/2.87 FIP. He has notched 34 saves, a mark that will look attractive to contenders this offseason.

In terms of rotations arms, there are few with the upside of the Red Sox’ Eduardo Rodriguez. Rodriguez and the Red Sox spoke about a possible extension earlier in the year, but there wasn’t much progress made and the two sides ultimately decided to table talks until the offseason, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. After complications from COVID-19 cost Rodriguez all of 2020, he has returned to his usual stable workload, making 31 starts for the playoff hopefuls.

Rodriguez hasn’t quite pitched to his pre-2020 level, though his 4.77 ERA may be a touch inflated. A 3.33 FIP suggests the 28-year-old hasn’t lost a step. He’s tossed 156 2/3 innings with an above-average 27.4 percent strikeout rate, 7.0 percent walk rate, 44.2 percent groundball rate, all numbers that will look good on Rodriguez’s free agent resume this winter.

Astros Could Use Zack Greinke In Relief In Postseason

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The Astros are two wins away from wrapping up an AL West title that would lock in a Division Series matchup with the White Sox. That series could see one of Houston’s most prominent hurlers working in a relief capacity.

Zack Greinke landed on the 10-day injured list last week because of neck soreness, his second trip to the IL this month. He’s expected to conclude his regular season with a rehab start on Thursday for Triple-A Sugar Land, manager Dusty Baker told reporters (including Jake Kaplan of the Athletic). Asked about Greinke’s potential postseason role, Baker said using him in relief is “a very distinct possibility.”

Using Greinke in shorter stints would primarily be motivated by workload concerns. The veteran righty has made just two big league starts this month, topping out at 75 pitches on September 14 against the Rangers. With the postseason kicking off next week, there’s some concern Greinke might not be able to ramp back up to work 100+ pitches in a traditional start.

Even independent of injury limitations, it’s debatable whether his performance merits a spot in the Astros’ top three or four starters this fall. Greinke’s 4.11 ERA ranks fifth among Houston’s six starters (minimum 50+ innings), and his peripherals land in a similar position. His 17% strikeout rate is the lowest on staff, while his 11.8 percentage point strikeout/walk rate differential ranks fifth on the team. Greinke ranks fifth on the club in SIERA (4.58) and last in swinging strike rate (9.1%).

Quite obviously, Greinke’s no longer the ace he was at his peak. The former Cy Young award winner’s 2021 season has been average or slightly worse by most metrics. He still has fantastic command, but Greinke’s stuff has dipped to the point where he’s best suited in the middle or back of a rotation.

But Greinke’s potential exclusion from a postseason rotation is also a testament to the strength of the Astros’ other options. Framber Valdez and Lance McCullers Jr. have each ridden huge ground-ball rates to an ERA below 3.25. Luis García should garner some Rookie of the Year support after tossing 144 1/3 innings of 3.30 ERA ball with better than average strikeout and walk rates. José Urquidy doesn’t post big strikeout totals, but he’s a control artist who stays off barrels and perennially outperforms his peripherals. And while Jake Odorizzi hasn’t been fantastic, he’s posted similar numbers as Greinke has, giving Baker and the front office plenty of starting options to choose from come October.

Baker also provided an update on Michael Brantley (via Mark Berman of Fox 26). The left fielder could be reinstated from his own IL stint “in the next couple days,” suggesting he should be ready to go for the postseason. One of the game’s most consistently productive hitters, Brantley has a characteristically strong .315/.367/.441 line (126 wRC+) in 493 plate appearances.

Astros Activate Jake Odorizzi, Option Seth Martinez

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The Astros activated Jake Odorizzi to start today’s game against the A’s. To clear a roster spot, Seth Martinez has been optioned to Triple-A, per Jake Kaplan of the Athletic (via Twitter).

Odorizzi’s postseason role is not yet clear, but he can nonetheless provide value here in the waning days of the regular season. He should have two more starts to audition for playoff usage. The 31-year-old has tossed 96 innings with a 4.22 ERA/4.60 FIP, 21.3 percent strikeout rate, 7.7 percent walk rate, and 35.8 percent groundball rate.

Though the Astros have lost three in a row, they should clinch the AL West sometime in the next couple of days. They could clinch as early as today with a win over the A’s and a Mariners loss. Houston can begin to think ahead to setting up their playoff rotation for an ALDS showdown with the White Sox.

Martinez, 27, had just a cup of coffee, making three appearances this past week. After a pair of scoreless outings, Martinez was tagged for five earned runs his last time out against Oakland on Friday.

Carlos Gomez Officially Announces Retirement

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Former major league outfielder Carlos Gómez officially announced his retirement this afternoon in a ceremony at Milwaukee’s American Family Field (video via Adam McCalvy of MLB.com). The announcement finalizes the end of a 13-year major league career.

Of course, there hasn’t been much doubt that Gómez’s playing days had already concluded. The 35-year-old last played in the majors in 2019, and he hasn’t played professionally since wrapping up a stint with the Aguilas Cibaenas in the Dominican Winter League between 2019-20. Reports out of the Dominican Republic in January 2020 indicated Gómez’s playing days were likely coming to an end, but he hadn’t publicly finalized that decision until today.

Gómez ceremoniously hung up his spikes as a Brewer, with whom he had the best run of his career. Acquired from the Twins over the 2009-10 offseason, the electric center fielder spent the next four and a half seasons with the Brew Crew. At his peak, Gómez was one of the sport’s top power-speed threats. Between 2013 and 2014, the right-handed hitter posted a .284/.347/.491 line with 47 home runs. He chipped in 74 stolen bases over those two seasons while playing Gold Glove-caliber defense.

Gómez earned down-ballot MVP support in both of those campaigns, and few players could match his well-rounded skillset. Over that two-year stretch, Gómez ranked seventh among all position players in FanGraphs’ version of wins above replacement, trailing only Mike Trout, Andrew McCutchen, teammate Jonathan Lucroy, Buster Posey, Miguel Cabrera and Josh Donaldson.

Milwaukee traded Gómez to the Astros at the 2015 deadline for then-prospects Brett Phillips, Domingo Santana, Josh Hader and Adrian Houser. It proved an opportune time for the Brewers to add an influx of young talent still helping the team immensely today, as Gómez’s productivity was never quite the same from that point forward. As he entered his 30’s, Gómez bounced around the league with a few clubs. He ended his playing days with the Mets, ironically the team that initially signed him as a 16-year-old back in 2002.

Gómez appeared in the majors with six different clubs over the course of his career, although he’ll be best known for his peak in Milwaukee. He appeared in 1461 MLB games and hit .252/.313/.411 with 145 home runs, 236 doubles and 41 triples. Gómez stole 268 bases, scored 675 runs and drove in 546. He appeared in two All-Star Games and won a Gold Glove during his aforementioned star-level peak. FanGraphs and Baseball Reference each valued his career at around 25 WAR. MLBTR congratulates Gómez on a very fine career and wishes him all the best in his future endeavors.

Astros’ Prospect Freudis Nova Undergoes Knee Surgery

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SEPTEMBER 23: Nova underwent surgery to repair the ACL injury, Jake Kaplan of the Athletic was among those to relay. He’s expected to miss the first half of the 2022 season. The Astros will need to reinstate Nova from the injured list over the offseason, but they can place him back on the 60-day IL at the start of next season to reopen 40-man roster space. Nova will receive major league salary and service time as long as he’s on the major league 60-day IL.

SEPTEMBER 20: The Astros are selecting reliever Seth Martinez to the MLB roster, relays Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle. Peter Solomon has been optioned to Triple-A Sugar Land in a corresponding move. To clear space for Martinez on the 40-man roster, minor league infielder Freudis Nova has been recalled and placed on the major league 60-day injured list.

Martinez is up for his first major league action. The right-hander was selected by the division-rival A’s in the 17th round of the 2016 draft coming out of Arizona State University. He spent the next four seasons in the Oakland system, topping out at Double-A. The Astros snagged him in the minor league phase of last winter’s Rule 5 draft and gave him an opportunity at the minors’ top level.

In his first crack against Triple-A hitters, Martinez has found plenty of success working in a multi-inning relief capacity. He’s soaked up 56 2/3 frames over 35 appearances with the Skeeters, posting a 2.86 ERA despite the generally hitter-friendly Triple-A environment. Martinez has backed that run prevention up with fantastic peripherals, striking out a huge 33.5% of opposing hitters while issuing free passes at an 8.8% rate. The 27-year-old has impressively gotten better at missing bats as he’s faced higher-level opponents. After posting just a 20% strikeout rate in Low-A in 2017, he’s successively improved his strikeout percentage year by year (25% at High-A in 2018, 29% at Double-A in 2019, 34% this season in Triple-A) to earn himself a big league look.

Nova, who was added to the 40-man roster last offseason to keep him from selection in the Rule 5 draft, has spent the 2021 season with High-A Asheville. The 21-year-old suffered a torn ACL in his left knee last week. Obviously, he won’t play again this year and it wouldn’t be a surprise if the issue affects his early-season availability in 2022. (The team didn’t provide any sort of timetable on his recovery).

It’s a disappointing development for one of the Astros’ more promising infield prospects. A high-profile amateur signee out of the Dominican Republic in July 2016, Nova quickly rose near the top of the organization in the eyes of some evaluators. His stock has slipped thanks to disappointing performances in recent seasons — including a .224/.301/.335 line in 282 High-A plate appearances this year — but he still checked in 27th on Baseball America’s midseason update of Astros’ farmhands.

In a bit of a silver lining in an otherwise frustrating situation, Nova will at least pick up his first big league service time and pay for the season’s final two weeks. Players on the minor league injured list don’t accrue MLB service or pay but do continue to count against a team’s 40-man roster. In order to open the 40-man spot, the Astros will give Nova a bump in salary for the rest of the regular season.

Ryan Pressly Reaches Vesting Threshold, Guarantees 2022 Salary

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Astros closer Ryan Pressly made his 60th appearance of the season in yesterday’s 9-5 win over the Angels, thus reaching an important contractual milestone.  As noted by The Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome, the Astros’ $10MM club option on Pressly’s services for 2022 has now vested into a fully guaranteed deal.

The original terms of Pressly’s two-year extension with the Astros guaranteed the reliever at least $17.5MM in new money, plus a $7MM club option for 2022.  That $7MM figure rose to $10MM once Pressly appeared in his 40th game of the 2021 season, and the option automatically vested if Pressly made 60 or more appearances in both the 2020 and 2021 campaigns.  Due to the shortened nature of the 2020 season, Pressly’s threshold for last season was adjusted to 23 games, and the right-hander hit that benchmark in Houston’s third-last game of the 60-game regular season schedule.

In all likelihood, Pressly’s option would’ve been a very easy call for the Astros to make even if he hadn’t reached the vesting threshold.  The 32-year-old has been one of the best relievers in baseball this year, delivering a 2.19 ERA/2.35 SIERA over 61 2/3 innings and converting 25 of 27 save chances.  As per the Statcast metrics, Pressly’s 33.2% strikeout rate and 5.0% walk rate are each in the 94th percentile, while his chase rate and spin rates on both his curveball and his 95.4mph fastball are in even more elite status (Pressly ranks first among all qualified pitchers in curve spin).  To top it off, Pressly’s 54.8% grounder rate was also the best of his nine MLB seasons.

This now makes four consecutive seasons of elite work for Pressly, acquired by the Astros from the Twins in a deadline deal in 2018.  Already a strong setup man, Pressly has emerged as Houston’s top ninth-inning option over the last two seasons, which only further enhanced his value to the bullpen.  Pressly has been named to the AL All-Star team in both 2019 and 2021.

With Pressly’s salary now officially on the books, the Astros have $101.9MM committed to nine players (Pressly, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Michael Brantley, Lance McCullers Jr., Jake Odorizzi, Pedro Baez, Martin Maldonado, and Jason Castro).  That number will almost surely rise to $109.9MM for 10 players, since Yuli Gurriel’s $8MM club option looks very likely to be exercised considering Gurriel’s impressive numbers.  The team will have plenty of major holes to fill considering Carlos Correa, Zack Greinke, and the injured Justin Verlander will all be free agents, but since the Astros reset their luxury tax number and began this season with a payroll just shy of $188MM, Houston should have plenty of room to spend this winter.

Minor MLB Transactions: 9/18/21

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The latest minor league transactions from around baseball…

  • The Astros outrighted Robel Garcia to Triple-A after the infielder cleared waivers.  Garcia was designated for assignment earlier this week, marking the fifth time in the last 14 months that Garcia has gone through the DFA process, though this is the first time he hasn’t been claimed by another team.  After being claimed by the Astros last February, Garcia has spent the entire season in Houston’s organization, posting only a .423 OPS over 117 big league plate appearances but chipping in as a utility infielder.  Garcia has a .189/.321/.422 slash line over 109 PA at Triple-A Sugar Land.

Injury Notes: Cronenworth, Cruz, Baz, Odorizzi

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After suffering a small fracture in his left ring finger after being hit by a Julio Urias pitch on September 10, Jake Cronenworth’s status was in question, though the Padres were holding off putting Cronenworth on the injured list.  It now looks like the utilityman will return this week for the Padres’ critical series with the Cardinals, San Diego manager Jayce Tingler told The Athletic’s Dennis Lin and other reporters.  The versatile Cronenworth has mostly played second base and shortstop this season, and Tingler said that Cronenworth could see action at both positions as well as some first base time.

Between an All-Star appearance this season and a second-place finish in the 2020 NL Rookie Of The Year vote, Cronenworth has emerged as a big force in San Diego’s lineup.  Beyond just his multi-positional ability, the 27-year-old has also batted .274/.350/.369 with 24 homers in his first 773 plate appearances at the MLB level, and this season took another step forward by hitting left-handed pitching almost as well as he has performed against right-handers.  Though Cronenworth (like pretty many of the Padres) had been in a hitting slump over the last few weeks, he had collected two hits in each of the three games prior to his injury.

More injury updates from around baseball….

  • Nelson Cruz left tonight’s game due to a right forearm contusion after being hit by a Tyler Alexander pitch.  X-rays were negative on Cruz, and Rays manager Kevin Cash told The Tampa Bay Times’ Marc Topkin (Twitter link) and other reporters that the slugger should be “fully available” for tomorrow’s game against the Tigers.  That said, Cruz might not play just for precautionary reasons and because Cash said Cruz might have been due for an off-day even before the minor injury.  After being acquired in a July trade with the Twins, Cruz got off to a slow start in Tampa, but has started to heat up again over the last couple of weeks.
  • After Shane Baz was scratched from a Triple-A start today, there was speculation that the Rays might give the star pitching prospect his big league debut during this series against Detroit.  However, reporter Patrick Kinas tweets that Baz was actually scratched due to back spasms, though the issue might only sideline Baz for a few days.  Baz has only continued to impress since making his Triple-A debut earlier this season, as the right-hander has a 1.76 ERA and a very impressive strikeout (36%) and walk (6.2%) rates over 46 innings with the Durham Bulls.  MLB Pipeline ranks Baz as the 20th-best prospect in the game, and he stands out as a very intriguing x-factor of a weapon for the Rays heading into the playoffs.
  • The Astros placed Jake Odorizzi on the 10-day injured list earlier this week due to a foot injury, and Odorizzi more directly described the issue to reporters (including The Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome) as “a mid-foot sprain.”  The injury was caused by a “flukey” bad step that forced Odorizzi out of Monday’s game in the second inning.  Fortunately, Odorizzi didn’t think the problem was serious, and the right-hander believes he’ll be able to return from the IL when first eligible on September 24.
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