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Astros Select Zack Short

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The Astros today have selected the contract of infielder Zack Short. He takes the active roster spot of fellow infielder Luis Guillorme, who has been placed on the 10-day injured list due to a right hamstring strain. Outfielder/designated hitter Yordan Alvarez has been transferred to the 60-day IL to open a 40-man spot for Short. Chandler Rome of The Athletic was among those to relay the moves.

Short, 30, signed a minor league deal with the Astros in the offseason. He didn’t make the club out of camp and has been playing for Triple-A Sugar Land this year. He has stepped to the plate 320 times for the Space Cowboys with a strong 17.5% walk rate and 12 home runs. He’s been held back by a .239 batting average on balls in play, however, leading to a .211/.356/.402 line and 103 wRC+.

In the past few weeks, the Astros have lost infielders Jeremy Peña, Brendan Rodgers and Zach Dezenzo to the injured list. That got Guillorme called up to the majors to serve a depth infielder role. Now that Guillorme is following those others to the IL, Short will get a return to the big leagues.

Short has appeared in 221 major league games in his career, mostly with the Tigers. He bounced around to the three infield positions to the left of first base and also had some brief time in the outfield, but hit just .167/.269/.287. He has hit better on the farm, with a .222/.360/.388 line and 105 wRC+ since the minors were cancelled in 2020.

As for Alvarez, his move is simply procedural and doesn’t change anything about his timeline. He was placed on the 10-day IL on May 3rd due to right hand inflammation. His 60-day count is retroactive to that date, so it’s already been 60 days. In other words, he’s eligible for reinstatement at any point. It’s unclear when he will realistically be able to return, however. It was eventually discovered that he has a fracture in his ring finger. It was reported yesterday that he’s still experiencing soreness and will be seeing a specialist to determine his next steps.

Photo courtesy of Reinhold Matay, Imagn Images

Yordan Alvarez Shut Down Due To Setback With Hand Injury

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Astros outfielder/designated hitter Yordan Alvarez seems to have hit another speed bump. General manager Dana Brown informed reporters, including Chandler Rome of The Athletic, that Alvarez has been shut down due to some renewed hand soreness. He will see a specialist at some point in the next 48 hours, at which point the club hopes to have more information.

At this point, details are still fairly sparse regarding Alvarez, though it’s an ominous development. Hand issues have been an ongoing problem for him. He had soreness in both hands in 2022 and spent some time on the injured list. Hand soreness also seemingly hampered him during spring training in 2023.

This year, he got out to a bad start, hitting .210/.306/.340 for a 76 wRC+ through 29 games. He landed on the 15-day injured list in early May due to right hand inflammation. At the end of May, Brown relayed that the club found a “very small fracture” in the ring finger of Alvarez’s right hand. He has been ramping up activities in recent days but this renewed soreness obviously creates concern that he’s not fully healed.

Time will tell how serious this setback is but it’s less than ideal for the Astros. Alvarez has been a key part of their lineup and one of the best hitters in baseball during his career. He came into this season with a .298/.390/.583 batting line and 166 wRC+. Only Aaron Judge had a higher wRC+ for the 2019-2024 span, among hitters with at least 60 plate appearances.

The Astros would obviously love to have that bat back in the lineup. That’s especially true because he is left-handed and the club is notably deficient in that department. The Astros don’t really have a pure lefty in their everyday lineup. Switch-hitters Victor Caratini and Cooper Hummel are getting regular playing time. The three pure lefties on the active roster at present are all bench players: Taylor Trammell, César Salazar and Luis Guillorme.

Putting aside handedness, this also compounds a more general injury problem for the Astros. They have over a dozen players on the IL, including seven position players. They recently lost their starting shortstop when Jeremy Peña hit the IL last week with a rib fracture.

Despite the all of those injuries, the Astros are 50-34. They are six games up in the American League West and will clearly be buying at the deadline. Brown already openly admitted that the club is looking for lefty bats. That need would only grow if this setback for Alvarez turns out to be significant. The club seems to be planning to avoid the competitive balance tax this year, which will be a challenge in making additions. RosterResource estimates the club’s CBT number is at $236MM, just $5MM from the base threshold.

Photo courtesy of Troy Taormina, Imagn Images

Astros Notes: Peña, Matthews, Smith

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The Astros placed star shortstop Jeremy Peña on the injured list due to a fractured rib, leaving them without their team’s most valuable player for at least a period of 10 days. A firm timetable for Peña’s return wasn’t provided by the team, and based on general manager Dana Brown’s comments regarding the injury, it sounds as though the club is taking an optimistic approach but doesn’t have a concrete idea of just how long he’ll be sidelined.

Via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com, Brown called Peña’s injury a “pain tolerance thing” and left a rather open-ended window when discussing his shortstop’s potential return date. “If he feels like he’s fine after a week, we’ll start some baseball activity,” said Brown. “We can give him some things to do, and he might be able to play through it as it heals.”

Brown noted that there’s still a good bit of inflammation at the site of the fracture, but if that clears up in a timely manner, it’s possible Peña could return “soon after the 10 days” — provided he can tolerate the discomfort. Of course, there are plenty of factors to consider. Swinging with a fractured rib would presumably impact Peña’s productivity at the plate, and the prospect of him laying out for a grounder at shortstop or taking another errant pitch off the ribs could exacerbate the matter. There’s also no telling when the inflammation will calm down and he’ll feel well enough to swing; Peña was originally plunked on Friday night and missed the next two games due to ongoing pain before follow-up MRI and CT scans revealed a fracture that initial x-rays failed to detect.

Now that Peña is out for at least a short spell, Leah Vann of Chron.com argues that the Astros ought to take their first big league look at 2023 first-rounder Brice Matthews. With utilityman Mauricio Dubón likely to slide over to shortstop, an already weak point in the lineup (second base) could become that much more compromised. Matthews has played 52 of his 67 games this season at second base and turned in a robust .285/.403/.492 batting line (135 wRC+) in 298 Triple-A plate appearances.

Houston doesn’t need to protect Matthews from the Rule 5 Draft before the 2026-27 offseason. Selecting him to the 40-man roster more than a year prior to that point runs the risk of prematurely burning through some of his option years. However, given his production at the top minor league level, Matthews is making a clear case for a promotion, and if the Astros are confident he’s going to be in the majors for the long haul anyway, concern over those option years would be rendered moot. It’s possible Houston trades for a veteran second baseman, but talks along those lines — not just for the Astros but for the whole league — probably won’t pick up in earnest until later this month.

With both Peña and Yordan Alvarez sidelined, Houston’s lineup is missing two of its most talented hitters. They’ll need to rely more heavily on the rest of the bats for the time being, including touted rookie Cam Smith. Smith has been on absolute fire at the plate lately, slashing .367/.433/.617 over his past 16 games. As he’s heated up, he’s also climbed the batting order. Smith was batting seventh, eighth and ninth for much of May but has been plugged into the fourth or fifth spot in the lineup each game since June 19.

The Astros are bullish on Smith’s ability to be a fixture in their long-term lineup, of course, and the manner in which he’s taken to right field from a defensive standpoint only bolsters that optimism. A former third baseman, Smith is learning right field on the fly, but Brown said on the Astros’ pregame radio show this week that even dating back to the draft, he believed Smith would benefit from a move off third base and into the outfield.

“I didn’t feel like, as a scout evaluating him, that he was going to be this piece at third base,” Brown said (via Chandler Rome of The Athletic). Brown personally scouted Smith on multiple occasions despite knowing he had no real chance to fall all the way to the Astros at No. 28. Those in-person looks paid off when the Kyle Tucker trade discussions began with the Cubs, however, and once the Astros pried Smith loose, Brown recalled advising his staff: “I don’t feel we took this guy for him to play third base, my vision for him is right field.”

Smith has taken to right field like a duck to water. He’s made just two errors in 597 innings at the position while generating a whopping +9 Defensive Runs Saved and +4 Outs Above Average. Statcast pegs Smith’s range in the 91st percentile of big league outfielders and credits him with 82nd-percentile arm strength. There’s still some learning to do when it comes to throwing, as Statcast actually grades his throwing as a negative despite that plus arm strength — likely a reflection of Smith still honing his accuracy on those lengthier throws and on developing instincts for hitting the cutoff man, throwing to the proper base, etc. For a converted infielder, however, the plus range, sure hands and strong arm set the foundation for a Gold Glove ceiling.

Unsurprisingly, Rome suggests that Smith’s long-term home is in right field and that there’s no infield return planned. With Isaac Paredes hitting well and controlled two more seasons beyond the current campaign, that seemed like a given anyhow, but Brown’s comments only further reinforce that long-term outlook for Smith.

Astros Place Jeremy Peña On Injured List With Fractured Rib

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The Astros announced Monday that star shortstop Jeremy Peña has been placed on the 10-day injured list due to a “small” fracture in one of his left ribs. The team has not yet provided a timetable for Peña’s expected return. A corresponding move will not be announced until later in the day, the team added.

Peña was hit with a pitch in the ribs by Cubs rookie Cade Horton this past Friday. He exited the game, but initial x-rays came back negative. Peña was out of the lineup both Saturday and Sunday, and he was clearly still feeling discomfort, as the Astros indicated that follow-up MRI and CT scans were performed, which revealed the fracture.

It’s an awful injury for the Astros. Peña is enjoying a full-fledged breakout this year, turning in a performance that could well make him an American League MVP finalist. The 27-year-old shortstop is hitting .322/.378/.489 with 11 home runs, 18 doubles, a triple and 15 steals (in 17 tries) — all while playing plus defense at shortstop. FanGraphs ranks him third in the majors with 4.1 wins above replacement, tied with Shohei Ohtani and trailing only Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh. Baseball-Reference has Peña tied with Raleigh for second in baseball, behind only Judge.

Peña’s breakout has in part been fueled by some good fortune on balls in play (.360 BABIP, up from .308 in his three prior seasons), but that’s only part of the tale. He’s upped his walk rate, and while it’s still below league average, his 5.7% mark is a notable improvement over last year’s paltry 3.8% clip. His 15.7% strikeout rate is down from last year’s 17.1% mark. Peña’s batted-ball profile doesn’t necessarily look all that different upon first glance, but while his overall average exit velocity is nearly unchanged from 2024, his exit velocity on balls hit in the air. specifically, is up nearly three miles per hour. Statcast’s “expected” metrics still feel there’s some regression in store, but there are tangible changes to his underlying statistical profile that suggest he’s not simply going to fade back to his pedestrian offense from 2022-24.

Replacing the type of production Peña has provided simply isn’t feasible. Mauricio Dubón has stepped up at shortstop over the past couple days and can at least be expected to provide solid glovework, but he’s a career .259/.294/.379 hitter who’s batting .239/.278/.390 in 2025. Prospect Brice Matthews, Houston’s pick at No. 28 overall in the 2023 draft, is currently in Triple-A and slashing .285/.403/.492 with a huge 15.4% walk rate but also a weighty 28.5% strikeout rate.

Matthews is not yet on the 40-man roster and wouldn’t need to be added this winter to protect him from the Rule 5 draft, but his performance nonetheless puts him in the conversation for a look with Peña shelved. Presumably, the longer Peña is expected to miss, the more seriously the organization would consider Matthews an option to step in for him. Alternative options within the organization who have some shortstop experience include Shay Whitcomb (already on the 40-man roster), Zack Short and Greg Jones. Neither Short nor Jones is on the 40-man, however. Whitcomb has barely played shortstop in 2025 but does have a bit more than 1800 career professional innings at the position.

Astros Interested In Cedric Mullins

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Astros general manager Dana Brown has been open about his desire to add some left-handed hitting to Houston’s predominantly righty-swinging lineup, and it isn’t any surprise that the club reportedly has some interest in a player who may be one of the deadline’s most intriguing rental bats.  USA Today’s Bob Nightengale writes that the Astros have “eyes on Orioles center fielder Cedric Mullins,” but didn’t elaborate as to whether or not Houston is just considering Mullins at this point, or if any exploratory talks have taken place between the Astros and Orioles front offices.

The 30-year-old Mullins is hitting .213/.295/.413 with 12 homers over 272 plate appearances this season, translating to an almost exactly average 101 wRC+.  Much of his success came in the first four weeks, as Mullins had an outstanding .983 OPS over his first 111 plate appearances of 2025, but he then sputtered to a .161/.197/.329 slash line (for a .526 OPS) in his next 158 trips to the plate.  He also had a minimal stint on the 10-day IL due to a hamstring strain right at the end of May and into the start of June, but Mullins’ fortunes didn’t improve after returning to action.

Apart from his respectable whiff and walk rates, Mullins’ Statcast numbers are otherwise a sea of blue, speaking to his struggles over the last two months.  His 25.7% strikeout rate is particularly troublesome, as it is easily the highest of his eight MLB seasons.  Mullins’ 55.4% fly ball rate is also a career high and his .202 Isolated Power number is the second-highest of his career, so while his apparent change in approach to seek out more power is keeping his wRC+ afloat, it is hampering his overall productivity at the plate.

With a modest career 107 wRC+ entering 2025, Mullins’ value has only been partially tied to his bat.  He stole 115 bases in 143 attempts in 2021-24, though Mullins is only 8-for-10 so far in 2025.  Public defensive metrics have generally been mixed on his center field glovework, and this season has had one of the biggest splits of opinion yet — the Outs Above Aveerage metrics puts Mullins at +1 for his 550 1/3 innings in center, while Defensive Runs Saved has him at a dismal -15.

Since Jake Meyers is one of the game’s better defensive center fielders, the Astros almost certainly wouldn’t be using Mullins up the middle anyway.  Rookie Cam Smith has made a very solid accounting for himself in his first MLB season, so left field would be the likeliest landing spot if Mullins did indeed end up in Houston.  The chain reaction here would probably send Jose Altuve back to his old second base spot on a full-time basis, as Altuve’s glove hasn’t adjusted well to the move to left field this season.

About half of Mullins’ $8.725MM salary for the season has already been paid out, and he’d have about $2.8MM remaining if dealt directly on the July 31 deadline day.  It is an open secret that Houston is trying to stay under the $241MM luxury tax threshold, so adding Mullins’ relatively modest salary would still be a fit even within the team’s relatively narrow financial window.  RosterResource projects the Astros’ current tax number at around $235.5MM, which gives the club some (but not much) space for deadline additions.

Mullins’ low salary will likely get him attention from several teams heading into the deadline, even despite his unimpressive numbers over the last two months.  Multiple clubs could be looking at his past track record rather than his most immediate results, and the “change of scenery” factor might also come into play.

It stands to reason that the Astros may wait until later into July to pull the trigger on any big deals, as the team might want more clarity on the status of Yordan Alvarez and other injured players before deciding on any lineup upgrades.  Alvarez has missed almost two months due to a hand injury that was eventually diagnosed as a fracture, but manager Joe Espada told reporters (including The Houston Chronicle’s Matt Kawahara) that Alvarez will be facing live pitching at the Astros’ minor league facility this week.  Outfielder Chas McCormick will also join Alvarez in the assignment, as McCormick has missed the last month recovering from an oblique strain.

The Orioles’ win over the Rays today boosted their record to 36-47, and Baltimore has now gone 21-19 since Tony Mansolino took over from Brandon Hyde as manager.  GM Mike Elias took a candid assessment of his club’s situation in comments with reporters yesterday, and said that the Orioles are preparing at the moment to be both buyers and sellers, and a clearer decision will be made as July develops.

This could mean that Mullins and other impending free agents will be natural trade candidates in the lead-up to July 31.  Even if the O’s do manage to claw their way back into the pennant race, Mullins might still get moved in order to address another roster need, akin to how Baltimore dealt Austin Hays (also in his last year of team control) to the Phillies prior to last year’s deadline.  Mullins’ struggles haven’t done much to help his trade value, of course, nor his chances of landing a solid multi-year contract as a free agent this winter.

AL West Notes: Severino, Pena, Langford

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The Athletics are playing all of their games for the next few years at Sutter Health Park in West Sacramento while they wait for their stadium in Las Vegas to be constructed. It’s been expected from the very beginning that playing in a minor league stadium would be an adjustment for the players, and before the season began there were issues raised by the MLBPA that resulted in a brief scuffle over whether the park would have grass or synthetic turf. Even with concessions such as the use of grass, however, some players were bound to find the change jarring.

According to Brendan Kuty of The Athletic, Luis Severino is one such player. Severino has performed much better on the road this year, with a 2.27 ERA in seven road starts as compared to a 6.79 ERA in ten starts at Sutter Health Park. When asked about the discrepancy, Severino was quick to attribute it to the fact that the team gets to play in a traditional MLB stadium when on the road.

“We don’t have that at home right now,” Severino said, as relayed by Kuty. “It’s not the same. It’s not the same atmosphere. We don’t have a lot of fans. Our clubhouse is in left field. So, when we play day games, we have to just be in the sun. There’s no air conditioning there, too. It’s really tough.”

The A’s are expected to remain at Sutter Health Park through the end of the 2027 season, so conditions aren’t likely to change in the short-term. Severino signed with the A’s for three years and $67MM over the winter, and while his deal comes with an opt-out clause after the second season he’s still locked into that contract through the end of the 2026 campaign.

Given Severino’s displeasure with his home ballpark and the Athletics’ lackluster 34-51 record, it’s easy to speculate about the possibility of a trade benefiting all parties. The righty was floated as a possible trade target for the Cubs earlier this week, but there’s plenty of reason to think the A’s might be reluctant to part with Severino considering the struggles they’ve had luring high-dollar free agents into the organization previously. While most clubs would expect to be able to replace a high-dollar veteran they part with in trade via free agency the following winter, it’s not hard to imagine the A’s ballpark situation making free agent pitchers reluctant to sign there.

More from the AL West…

  • Astros shortstop Jeremy Pena was out of the lineup today after getting hit by a pitch in the ribs during yesterday’s game against the Cubs, but manager Joe Espada told reporters (including Chandler Rome of The Athletic) that Pena came in today feeling better after being considered day-to-day yesterday. Espada added that Pena would receive treatment and do light baseball activities but be held out of tonight’s game. That creates reason for optimism he could be back in the lineup for the series finale on Sunday, which would be a huge boost given that Pena has put himself into the MVP conversation with a blistering first half. Mauricio Dubon has filled in at shortstop in Pena’s absence.
  • Rangers outfielder Wyatt Langford was placed on the injured list due to an oblique strain yesterday, but MLB.com’s Kennedi Landry writes that both Langford himself and Rangers brass have suggested the issue isn’t a serious one. President of baseball operations Chris Young told reporters that the team having two upcoming days off on the schedule played a role in the decision to send Langford for what the club expects to be a minimum IL stint, and added that the injury was “right on the cusp” of being something they’d just rest Langford on the bench for a few days for. Langford has struggled to a lackluster .224/.286/.342 in June this year, so perhaps a ten-day reset could benefit the 23-year-old in more ways than one. Alejandro Osuna has joined Evan Carter and Adolis Garcia in the regular outfield mix while Langford is out of commission.

Poll: AL Cy Young Race Check-In

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While days off and postponements leave clubs around the league without a uniform number of games played, one of the games in this week’s slate will represent the halfway point in the season for every team across MLB. Earlier this week, we checked in on the MVP race in both the American League and the National League as players around the game gear up for the second half. Those races are dominated by position players, so today we’ll turn our attention more firmly towards the league’s pitchers. Who are the frontrunners for the Cy Young Award in both leagues? We’ll be taking a look at some of the top candidates this week, starting with the American League today:

Tarik Skubal

The reigning AL Cy Young Award winner tops the list of contenders again this year. Somehow, Skubal has been even more dominant than he was last year. Through 16 starts and 102 innings, he has improved his ERA (2.29), FIP (2.11), strikeout rate (32.1%), walk rate (3.3%), SIERA (2.46), and xERA (2.61) relative to his full season numbers last year. He’s even pitching slightly deeper into games so far this year, averaging 6.37 innings per start as compared to last year’s 6.19.

For a hurler who won the pitching Triple Crown in the AL last year to improve upon that performance the very next year is remarkable, and Skubal figures to remain the favorite to win the award for a second consecutive season if he can maintain this level of production going forward. There’s plenty of competition in the AL, however, so even a minor slip up down the stretch could give the edge to another candidate.

Garrett Crochet

Crochet has been nearly as dominant as Skubal in many respects. After breaking out with the White Sox last year and getting traded to the Red Sox over the offseason, he’s turned in a 2.06 ERA and 2.53 FIP across 17 starts. Crochet leads the majors with 109 1/3 innings pitched, and while his 31.3% strikeout rate is just behind that of Skubal, he’s still struck out more batters (135) than any pitcher in baseball this year. While Crochet and Skubal appear to be more or less equals on paper, with Crochet having a lower ERA and an extra start under his belt while Skubal has stronger peripheral numbers, there are some other factors working against Boston’s ace.

Crochet is more or less untested in the second half after throwing just 40 2/3 innings after July 6 last year. After that date, the lefty never recorded an out in the fifth inning or later and topped out at just 77 pitches in an outing. Even with that less strenuous workload, his numbers suffered as he posted a 4.87 ERA down the stretch. Chicago’s decision to handle Crochet gently down the stretch last year was an understandable one given his injury history, but it creates some uncertainty about how he’ll handle the first true full-season starter’s workload of his career. Additionally, Crochet has a 7-4 record on a team that might wind up selling at the trade deadline this year. While the Cy Young is an individual award, some voters consider a pitcher’s record and their team’s success, which could benefit other candidates with more dominant records on clear playoff teams.

Max Fried

Signed to the largest deal for a left-handed pitcher in MLB history this past offseason, Fried has stepped up as the Yankees’ new ace while Gerrit Cole rehabs from Tommy John surgery. Fried has a sterling 1.92 ERA in 17 starts (108 innings), though he’s done so without the gaudy strikeout numbers of other top Cy Young contenders. His 24.5% strikeout rate is above-average but not otherworldly, but he makes up for that by walking just 4.9% of his opponents and generating grounders at a 53.1% rate.

Even with a career-high 6.5% barrel rate allowed this year, Fried remains one of the sport’s best hurlers when it comes to pitching to contact. His 2.74 FIP and 3.17 SIERA are both elite as well, and more traditional voters will love his 10-2 record, which is good for the most pitcher wins in baseball this year and the best winning percentage in the AL.

Hunter Brown

Brown is in the midst of an exciting breakout season with the Astros at just 26 years old. His 1.88 ERA is the lowest figure in all of baseball among qualified starters, and while he has just 91 innings of work under his belt so far, he’s still averaging more than six innings per start. Brown’s heroics have helped push the Astros back to the front of the pack in the AL West after a tough start to the year.

There are some reasons to doubt Brown’s ability to sustain quite this level of dominance. He’s benefited from a .244 BABIP and an 88.4% strand rate. That good fortune on batted balls and sequencing is very likely to regress toward the mean eventually, though his 2.84 FIP and 2.96 SIERA are still excellent thanks largely to a 31.6% strikeout rate, an 8.1% walk rate and a strong 46.8% ground-ball rate.

Kris Bubic

Bubic has picked up the slack for injured ace Cole Ragans in the Kansas City rotation and has put together an elite season that rivals any of his competition on this list. He’s posted an excellent 2.18 ERA, fanned 26% of his opponents and kept his walk rate down at a sharp 7.3%. Bubic has had some good fortune when it comes to home runs, however; only 4.8% of the fly-balls he’s allowed have cleared the fence, as compared to the 15.1% homer-to-fly-ball rate he carried into the season. It’s doubtful he can continue quite that level of home run suppression, but he has the makings of a front-line arm even if a few more of those flies start leaving the yard.

Bubic has tossed 91 innings in 15 starts, averaging just a hair over six frames per outing. It’s worth wondering how he’ll hold up as the season wears on. Bubic underwent Tommy John surgery in 2023 and pitched just 66 combined innings between the big leagues and minors. His 91 frames are already his most in a season since he pitched 142 2/3 innings in 2022.

Jacob deGrom

This is the healthiest deGrom has been in a half decade, but you wouldn’t notice virtually any layoff based on the results. The multi-time Cy Young winner has posted a 2.08 ERA and 3.02 FIP across 95 1/3 innings in his age-37 season. He’s set down 25.9% of his opponents on strikes and only walked 5.5% of the batters he’s faced. deGrom had some short starts early, but he’s averaging nearly 6 1/3 innings per outing with a 1.67 ERA dating back to April 18.

As with Bubic, there are workload questions. This is already the most innings deGrom has pitched in a season since 2019. He’s only 33 1/3 innings away from matching his combined total from 2022-24 (majors and minors included).

Other Options

The field of potential AL Cy Young candidates this year is a very deep one. Framber Valdez remains one of the sport’s top ground ball pitchers with a 59.5% grounder rate to go alongside his 2.88 ERA and 3.04 FIP in 16 starts. Joe Ryan has a 2.86 ERA, including a 2.38 mark over the past two months. Drew Rasmussen boasts a 2.45 ERA, but his 84 1/3 innings place him more than 30 frames behind the league leaders. They’re all pitching well enough that a big second half could get them in the conversation. Nathan Eovaldi has an absurd 1.56 ERA on the season, but he’s missed the past month with triceps inflammation. Relievers Andrés Muñoz (18 saves, 1.21 ERA), Aroldis Chapman (14 saves, 1.36 ERA) and Josh Hader (21 saves, 1.73 ERA) have all been brilliant, but it’s hard enough for relievers to get consideration in a normal season — let alone one where the top group of starters has performed this well.

Who do you think will ultimately come out on top in AL Cy Young voting? Will Skubal reign supreme once again, or could another challenger step up to claim the trophy? Have your say in the poll below:

Extension Talks Between Astros, Jeremy Peña Put On Hold

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The Astros and Jeremy Peña were apparently making some recent progress on extension talks, per reports from Jon Heyman of The New York Post and Ari Alexander of KPRC 2. Heyman described the talks as “serious” while Alexander said the two sides were “deep” in discussions. Alexander adds that the deal in question would have exceeded $105MM over five years. However, Heyman notes that these talks took place before Peña switched his representation to the Boras Corporation. Earlier this week, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reported that Peña had hired Boras to represent him.

Peña, 27, has long been a solid shortstop of the glove-first variety but his bat has taken a step forward this year. From 2022 to 2024, he produced a combined .261/.307/.399 batting line. He hit 47 home runs but only drew walks in 4.9% of his plate appearances. His 100 wRC+ for that span indicates he was exactly league average at the plate. But thanks to his glovework and 44 stolen bases, he was able to produce 8.9 wins above replacement in the eyes of FanGraphs.

This year, he’s already up to 4.0 fWAR through 79 games thanks to a massive .326/.382/.495 line and 150 wRC+. That’s not entirely sustainable, as he’s currently riding a .365 batting average on balls in play. For context, this year’s league average is .291 and Peña personally had a .308 BABIP coming into the season. Still, there are some signs it’s not entirely luck. His 41.4% hard hit rate is a career high. He has 11 home runs, despite only hitting 15 last year and just 10 the year prior. His 5.9% walk rate is still low but an improvement for him. His strikeout rate is also down for a fourth straight year. He had a 24.2% rate in his rookie season in 2022, then 20.3% the year after, 17.1% last season and 15.9% this year.

Though there may be some regression coming, it seems fair to conclude Peña has increased his earning power with his bat this year. Perhaps he realized this as well and that’s why he made the pivot to Boras. The idea that Boras clients never sign extensions is incorrect, as shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker. Several big-name Boras clients have signed extensions, including Stephen Strasburg, Xander Bogaerts and Peña’s teammates Jose Altuve and Lance McCullers Jr..

On the other hand, there is some truth to the fact that Boras clients generally lean towards trying out the free agent market. It’s possible there’s a bit of a chicken-and-egg thing happening. Do Boras clients look to maximize earnings because that’s the way the agency prefers to operate? Or do players looking to max out hire Boras because they have seen him play that game?

Whatever the reasoning, Peña has made the switch at a notable time. He came into this year with exactly three years of major league service time, meaning he’ll be at the four-year mark at the end of the year and on pace for free agency after 2027.

Peña is currently in his age-27 season, making a $4.1MM arbitration salary. A five-year deal starting in 2026 would buy out his final two arb years and three free agent years. Looking again to MLBTR’s Contract Tracker for players in the 4-5 service window who signed extensions, the group has two clear standouts. Garrett Crochet recently secured himself a six-year, $170MM guarantee. A few years prior, Matt Olson got $168MM over eight years.

There’s a clear gap between those deals and what the Astros were discussing with Peña, so perhaps that is what has led to this pause. Since Peña is currently in his age-27 season, he is on track to reach free agency after his age-29 campaign. A five-year extension would buy out his age-28 through age-32 seasons. If he can keep putting up solid numbers, he should have more earning power by going year to year and hitting the open market younger. Though that naturally comes with the risk that his performance dips or he suffers a significant injury between now and then.

Ultimately, it’s up to Peña and what his priorities are. As mentioned, he’s making $4.1MM this year. He has already set himself up for a nice raise next year. He should have some financial security and could bank on himself if he wants. If he’s comfortable with the Astros, perhaps he would be willing to take something below full market value to stay, but then maybe he wouldn’t have hired Boras if that were the case.

For the Astros, they have extended some players, as mentioned. However, they have also let guys like Carlos Correa, George Springer and others walk to sign elsewhere. They signed Alex Bregman to an early-career extension but eventually let him hit free agency and sign with the Red Sox. Framber Valdez seems likely to depart after the current season. Kyle Tucker seemed unlikely to sign an extension and was traded in the offseason.

Payroll wise, the Astros are right up against the competitive balance tax this year and are clearly trying to avoid it, though they have more wiggle room going forward. RosterResource has their 2026 CBT number pegged at $135MM, about $100MM lower than this year’s. Arbitration raises will increase that numbers but the club is going to see commitments to José Abreu, Ryan Pressly and Rafael Montero come off the books. Their most notable impending free agent is Valdez, though they may feel they can replace him internally with their many injured starters potentially getting healthier by next year.

Looking farther down the line, McCullers comes off the books after 2026, Christian Walker and Cristian Javier after 2027, then Yordan Alvarez and Josh Hader after 2028. Altuve is the only guy on the books by 2029 and they’re clear by 2030. It appears there should be room in there for Peña but he will have to agree on an acceptable price point.

Photo courtesy of Cary Edmondson, Imagn Images

Trade Deadline Outlook: Houston Astros

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MLBTR’s team-by-team look at the upcoming deadline continues with the Astros. They're yet again in pole position in the AL West. Payroll might be an obstacle this summer, but they're in a familiar position as a deadline buyer.

Record: 45-33 (89.6% playoff probability, per FanGraphs)

Buy Mode

Potential needs: Left-handed bat, rotation depth, second base

Dana Brown gave us an easy starting point for the Astros' deadline outlook. Houston's general manager said over the weekend that the front office is already scouring the market for a left-handed hitter. That would have been easy enough to infer from a look at the roster. The Astros have the most right-handed lineup in recent history. They've given more than 2500 plate appearances to righty hitters this season (not including switch-hitters against lefty pitching). The second-place Angels are more than 400 PAs behind Houston, and no other team has even reached 1900. They're on pace to surpass the 2022 Blue Jays for the most plate appearances for right-handed batters in a season this century.

The flip side, of course, is that they've given a staggeringly low 175 plate appearances to pure left-handed hitters. Victor Caratini is their only switch-hitter of note. Yordan Alvarez should be back at some point, but he's coming up on two months since he fractured his right hand. Opponents have unsurprisingly thrown more right-handed pitchers at Houston than at any other. It hasn't stopped them from having success so far, but they'll obviously prefer to have more balance as they look ahead to potential playoff series.

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Astros Select Jordan Weems

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The Astros announced to reporters, including Chandler Rome of The Athletic, that right-hander Jordan Weems has been selected to the roster. He’ll take the active roster spot of fellow righty Shawn Dubin, who has landed on the 15-day injured list due to a right forearm strain. Outfielder Pedro León has been transferred to the 60-day IL to open a 40-man spot.

Dubin has thrown 20 1/3 innings for the Astros this year with a 1.33 earned run average. That’s a fairly misleading number, however, as he won’t be able to maintain a 99.1% strand rate forever. His 22.2% strikeout rate and 8.6% walk rate are closer to average, hence his 3.76 FIP and 3.73 SIERA being closer to par as well. Per Matt Kawahara of The Houston Chronicle, Dubin hopes the strain is minor and believes he can avoid surgery. He had an MRI yesterday which will presumably determine if his feelings are accurate or not.

For now, Weems will take his roster spot. The 32-year-old signed a minor league deal with Houston earlier this month. He has since tossed 11 1/3 innings over nine Triple-A appearances with a 3.97 ERA. His 19.6% strikeout rate and 11.8% walk rate in that time were both subpar figures but his 54.3% ground ball rate was quite strong.

That’s obviously a small sample of work to judge. Weems has a larger track record of major league pitching, mostly with the Nationals. He had a decent two-year run for Washington over 2022 and 2023, logging 94 1/3 innings over those two seasons with a 4.29 ERA. His 10.1% walk rate was a tad high but he also struck out 25.4% of batters faced.

Since then, his results have backed up. His ERA spiked to 6.70 last year, with his strikeout and walk rate each worsening to 17.9% and 12.2% respectively. He was outrighted off the roster during the season and became a free agent. He signed a minor league deal with Atlanta but was released after posting a 5.09 ERA in 17 2/3 Triple-A innings.

Weems will give the Astros a fresh arm with some major league experience on his track record. He is out of options, so he’ll effectively have to be designated for assignment if the club wants to remove him from the active roster at any point.

As for León, he started the season on the 15-day IL due to a left MCL sprain. He’s already been on the shelf more than 60 days, so he’s eligible for reinstatement at any time. He doesn’t appear close to a return, however. He started a rehab assignment in late May but was pulled off that after just five games.

Photo courtesy of Mike Lang, Imagn Images

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