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Reactions To And Effects Of The Jose Quintana Trade

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After a nearly silent All-Star break on the rumor front, the Cubs and White Sox stunned the baseball world by announcing a blockbuster deal that sent left-hander Jose Quintana from Chicago’s American League club to its National League team in exchange for minor leaguers Eloy Jimenez, Dylan Cease, Matt Rose and Bryant Flete. Over the past 24 hours, both teams have addressed the media, pundits from around the media have weighed in on the swap, and others have reported details on alternative talks that each team had leading up to the blockbuster move. Here’s a before-and-after, if you will, of how what might be the summer’s biggest trade transpired…

  • The Yankees, Brewers and Astros were all involved in varying levels of trade talks regarding Quintana before the Cubs ultimately acquired him, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com (via Twitter). The Braves, too, were in on Quintana “until the end,” USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets. Meanwhile, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post tweets that the Rockies were “never really in” on Quintana despite a potential need for some rotation upgrades with some of their younger arms sputtering lately.
  • The Cubs tried to engage the Tigers in trade talks on Michael Fulmer before acquiring Quintana, reports Nightengale in a full column. However, Detroit gave no indication that it was willing to listen unless the Cubs were willing to include both Javier Baez and Ian Happ in trade talks. They also inquired on Justin Verlander, per Morosi (also via Twitter), though he notes that, similarly, talks between the two sides “never gained momentum.”
  • While many were stunned to see the Sox and Cubs line up on a trade — their first since 2006 — White Sox GM Rick Hahn scoffed at the notion that their shared city would serve as an impediment to trade talks, writes Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times. “This notion that we wouldn’t do business with them because they’re in town — or somehow we would actually take an inferior baseball deal for non-baseball reasons because of emotion or a rivalry or something totally unrelated to putting the best possible team on the field for the next several years — is laughable,” said Hahn. The South Side GM went on to laud Jimenez’s upside, calling him a potential middle-of-the-order bat with power potential and the ability to hit to all fields. Hahn adds that yesterday’s package was “far and away the best offer, the best possibility, that we’ve discussed with any club since we’ve started this process roughly a year or ago or so.”
  • The Cubs believed that they were out of the running to acquire Quintana after talking to Hahn in June, president of baseball operations told reporters (via Gordon Wittenmyer of the Sun-Times). Hahn, though, re-engaged with Epstein on Sunday night, and the two talked over the next few days, including a conversation that included Hahn ducking behind an exhibit at All-Star FanFest in Miami to avoid being seen (per ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers, on Twitter). Ultimately, it became clear that the Cubs would have to part with two of their very best prospects to get the deal done. “This deal had zero-percent chance of happening without both Eloy and Cease in it,” said Epstein. The Cubs president went on to say that they’ve been trying to acquire a pitcher like Quintana for “a long time” and added that his analytics and scouting teams “[dug] deep” to determine whether there were any changes that led to Quintana’s slow start t the season. “Our assessment on both fronts was that he is the same guy, and our staff felt that way with conviction,” Epstein said.
  • Also via Wittenmyer’s column, Epstein said that the team isn’t necessarily done yet, though their play in the next two weeks will dictate what other moves are or aren’t made. “We need to play well coming out of the gates here, and we’ll assess what we’re trying to do in large part based on how we play and where we are in the standings, and how realistic we think a World Series run is this year,” Epstein said. “Everything is still on the table for this year.”
  • ESPN’s Keith Law opines (Insider subscription required and recommended) that both clubs did well in the trade. The Cubs picked up a durable arm that has a near-ace-level track record over the past three years whose raw stuff “didn’t really waver” even through his struggles earlier this season. Quintana can help offset the loss of right-hander Jake Arrieta after the season, joining Jon Lester and Kyle Hendricks in the rotation for the next several years. His contract is also affordable enough that the team can comfortably pursue rotation help on the free-agent market this winter. Law projects Jimenez as a middle-of-the-order bat and suggests that he alone could’ve been an acceptable return, though the inclusion of Cease sweetens the deal. Cease has questions about his command as well as his durability and may end up in the ’pen, though his velocity and pair of potentially above-average secondary offerings make him a nice upside play. Law notes that he’s been leapfrogged by a pair of pitching prospects on the Cubs’ organizational rankings, which might’ve made him easier to deal.
  • Both Nightengale and Ken Rosenthal of MLB Network opine that it’s ridiculous that this is just the second trade these two teams have made this decade and offer praise for Hahn and Epstein for their pragmatic approach to dealing with one another. Teams are making more rational and data-driven decisions than ever before, Rosenthal notes, ultimately surmising that that trend should also include a willingness to deal within the same city and within the same division.
  • Yahoo’s Jeff Passan writes that Quintana’s contract was every bit as important to the Cubs as Quintana himself. With significant arbitration raises looming for players like Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Kyle Hendricks, Javier Baez, Carl Edwards Jr. and others looming in the next two years, the team’s enviable young core is going to rapidly become considerably more expensive. Shedding money from aging veterans like Arrieta, John Lackey and Ben Zobrist will obviously free up some cash, but Quintana’s contract meets an important nexus of future payroll flexibility, remaining under the luxury tax and improving the near- and long-term roster.

Astros May Look At High-End Relievers Due To Lack Of Starters Available

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  • In his weekly AL Notes column, Heyman reports that with few top starters left on the market, the Astros may instead pursue high-end bullpen help in an effort to shorten the game and load up the relief corps for the postseason. Unsurprisingly, their list of targets would include Zach Britton, if he’s available. (Most clubs in the league would perk up at the notion of acquiring a healthy Britton.)

American League Injury Situations That May Impact The Trade Deadline

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With the deadline approaching quickly, teams will be forced to make tough decisions. Health issues will play a large role in complicating those decisions. In some cases, when a player is known to be out for the entire season, acting decisively to find a replacement makes clear sense. But there are plenty of unresolved health issues throughout the game that will likely have significant impacts on a team’s approach to the deadline. Teams will be gathering information on internal players and on possible targets; here are a few players whose uncertain health status will be watched closely:

Carson Smith & Eduardo Rodriguez, Red Sox: While Pablo Sandoval is nominally on the DL, and perhaps still factors into the team’s needs at third base, the real action is in the pitching staff. Smith could yet represent a significant pen arm, but it’s still unclear how much (if at all) he’ll contribute. And while Rodriguez has been excellent, and seems slated to return shortly from the DL, his recurring knee problems could become a major near-term concern.

Matt Andriese, Rays: There have been plenty of suggestions that the Rays could consider dealing a starter — particularly, pending free agent Alex Cobb — even if they’re in contention. But that’d be much harder to do if Andriese isn’t showing clear signs of returning to full health. Even if he is, the club could elect to stand pat, perhaps deciding to use the abundance of starting options to bolster the relief corps rather than spending young talent to get a new bullpen arm.

Greg Bird & Tyler Austin, Yankees: Perhaps the ship has sailed on the Yanks fully relying on Bird in the second half. After all, he struggled when he was available and is dealing with an ankle injury that does not appear to come with a straightforward solution. And it’s unclear just how much stock the Yankees would put in Austin even if he were at full health. Still, the injury signals coming from these two over the next few weeks could impact the Bronx Bombers’ deadline plans, particularly since the organization is clearly looking to avoid parting with significant prospects unless strictly necessary.

J.J. Hardy, Orioles: Chris Davis is on the shelf as well, though the team’s glut of corner options allows them to weather that storm fairly well. It’s another story with Hardy, who is still one to three weeks from even resuming baseball activities. The Orioles have been in a free fall since mid-May, but GM Dan Duquette was maintaining a buyer’s outlook as recently as late June, but more recent suggestions indicated that the team is presently on the fence. If the O’s perform well in the first two weeks coming out of the break, Hardy’s absence creates a potential area of need.

Danny Salazar, Indians: Shoulder issues have significantly limited the talented right-hander, who is working back towards the majors at present. If he can return to full health, Salazar could conceivably get back to providing quality innings from the rotation — or, at least, the bullpen. If not, the team’s possible pitching needs will be all the more clear.

Hector Santiago, Twins: With a somewhat mysterious and lingering back issue, the southpaw is a question mark for Minnesota in the second half. The team is shopping for young starters regardless, but the urgency of that effort — if not also the possibility of considering at least a modest rental investment — could hinge in part upon Santiago’s progress.

Nate Karns, Royals: Kansas City is reportedly looking to augment the back of its rotation, which is likely in no small part due to the fact that the return of Karns is looking less and less likely. The last update on Karns suggested that thoracic outlet surgery may very well be in his future. If he is indeed lost for the season, as lefty Matt Strahm recently was, the Royals’ need to snag a back-of-the-rotation rental becomes more acute.

Dallas Keuchel & Collin McHugh, Astros: The AL West crown is already nearly in hand for Houston, but that doesn’t mean the team is without its needs. The ’Stros have the luxury of looking ahead to the postseason, but still clearly would like to add to the top of the rotation. So long as Keuchel and McHugh are moving back toward the major league mound, the addition of a starter will remain classified as a strong want. But if either (particularly Keuchel) show any worrying signs, the organization will surely feel a much greater urgency to add an arm that can help drive the team through the postseason.

Matt Shoemaker, Angels: Obviously, Mike Trout is of even greater concern. But all indications are that he’s good to go beginning this Friday. For the Angels, deciding whether it’s worth adding to the roster at the deadline could hinge more upon the health of the rotation. Shoemaker will get checked out before hopefully beginning a throwing program within the week; whether he is progressing toward a return will be important to the Halos’ plans. (Honorable mention: Garrett Richards and Tyler Skaggs, who are on longer-fuse rehab paths.)

Hisashi Iwakuma, Mariners: It’s not clear at this point whether Seattle can expect much at all from the veteran down the stretch. Seattle is already without Drew Smyly for the year due to Tommy John surgery. If Iwakuma can’t begin to make his way back from shoulder problems before the deadline –and if the team can hang in the Wild Card hunt over the next two weeks — then pursuit of a starter would make all the more sense.

Keone Kela & Jake Diekman, Rangers: The Texas pen has produced plenty of hand-wringing this year. Ironically, perhaps, the first crack seemed to form with Kela’s stunning demotion to start the year, owing to behavioral issues. But he has been effective since making his way back, pitching his way into consideration for the closer’s role that has been vacated by Sam Dyson and Matt Bush. Now, however, Kela is dealing with shoulder soreness; his status could help dictate the team’s needs over the coming weeks. Diekman is even more of a question mark after surgery to treat ulcerative colits cost him the entire first half. He’s throwing from flat ground as of early July, and a return to the mound would obviously be a potential boon for the Texas relief corps. But, they also can’t fully know how much to expect from him in the second half given the unique nature of his medical status.

White Sox Maintain High Asking Price On Quintana

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The White Sox remain undeterred in seeking to obtain a big haul for sturdy lefty Jose Quintana, according to a report from Jon Heyman of Fan Rag. With three years of affordable control remaining after the current season, the rebuilding organization probably doesn’t need to deal Quintana this summer.

To this point, the team has stood on that notable piece of leverage, continuing to ask for “two very top prospects” in its conversations with interested rivals. The South Siders have pressed the Astros for Francis Martes and Kyle Tucker, while asking the Yankees to headline a deal with either Gleyber Torres or Clint Frazier.

That strategy seemed in danger of backfiring earlier this year, as Quintana stumbled out of the gates. But the 28-year-old has righted the ship of late, perhaps restoring any lost shine.

Quintana has thrown only 104 1/3 frames over 18 starts, putting him shy of a 200-inning pace, though he has yet to exhibit any health issues. (More broadly, durability is one of the lefty’s chief attributes.) His 15.5% K%-BB% is a near-exact match for the numbers he carried over the prior three campaigns. A rise in home runs allowed (1.21 per nine) is perhaps the largest single factor differentiating Quintana’s current campaign from the five strong seasons that came before.

If teams buy into the improved form Quintana has shown since the start of June — 45 strikeouts and just 12 earned runs over forty frames — then perhaps they’ll be willing to meet the steep asking price. Then again, his less-than-dominant form over the course of the current season raises yet more questions about just how hard contenders should push to get him.

For the Astros, Heyman notes, Quintana may not really be as impactful an arm as the team would prefer to acquire. That makes sense: Houston is running off with the AL West and has many quality rotation options, but would love to add a true lock-down starter to the top of its staff.

In fact, the ’Stros have gone so far as to ask the Mets about star righty Jacob deGrom, per the report. (Tom Verducci of SI.com had previously reported some level of interest.) He’d likely be a more impactful addition, though there’s still no reason to think the Mets have any interest in even considering a deal.

As it stands, teams like the Astros and Yankees are continuing to “look around for alternatives,” per the report. But the lack of obviously available pitchers of comparable or better quality — with the exception, it seems, of Sonny Gray — represents another key element of the White Sox’ bargaining position. Just how things will turn out remains to be seen, but to this point the long standoff continues.

Astros Trade Rumors: Justin Wilson, Justin Verlander

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  • Wilson has the subject of trade buzz since the offseason, and Fenech reports that the Astros came the closest to obtaining the southpaw over the winter.  The Tigers asked Houston for top outfield prospect Derek Fisher at the time, and one would think Detroit’s interest has only increased given how Fisher has performed this season.  Fisher has a superb .306/.370/.575 slash line and 19 homers over 336 Triple-A plate appearances, not to mention a .992 OPS during a 21-PA cup of coffee with the Astros in his big league debut.  This is just my speculation, but since Houston’s bullpen is already arguably the league’s best, I’m not sure they would deal a top prospect for another reliever.  On the other hand, if the Astros are unable to land starting pitching help, they could turn to the relief market in an attempt to form an ultra-bullpen, a la the 2015 Royals.  The Astros have also had scouts recently watching the Tigers.
  • Verlander’s big contract limits his number of suitors, and Fenech lists just the Cubs, Dodgers and Astros as potential trade partners, though all have some drawbacks.  Los Angeles may look to address other needs than its rotation, while an Astros move for Verlander “would be out of their character.”  Still, Fenech figures Houston will at least check in with Detroit about the former Cy Young Award winner.

    [SOURCE LINK]

Jeff Luhnow On Astros' Deadline Plans

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  • The Astros are essentially a lock for the postseason thanks to their big lead in the AL West, which allows the team to take a somewhat more measured approach to the deadline, GM Jeff Luhnow tells Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi.  They’re even looking ahead to individualized needs against potential playoff opponents; as Luhnow said, “you really can start focusing on what does this team need to look like to face the Cleveland Indians in a seven-game series, to face the Boston Red Sox in a seven-game series, do we match up well.”  While Houston is prepared to deal from its minor league depth to add at the deadline, Luhnow also sees no reason to abandon the franchise’s long-built plan for sustained success.  “We want to win now, for sure, and we’re going to do whatever it takes to win now,” Luhnow said.  “But at the same time, we’ve been building up all this currency, all these players in the pipeline so that we could be good for a long time….I certainly want it to be more than a three- or four-year run.”

Astros Holding Out For Top Starter?

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The trade deadline chatter hasn’t really picked up yet, perhaps in large part owing to the tightly packed American League. Jon Heyman of Fan Rag recently took his weekly spin around the A.L., providing a few items of note. While there has been a bit of buzz around Justin Verlander, the Tigers haven’t asked him to provide a list of teams to which he’d permit a trade. The Astros, meanwhile, seem to be hoping for a chance at adding a difference-making starter, but don’t know whether such an arm will end up being made available. And the White Sox, unsurprisingly, are ready and willing to get deals done.

Braves Receiving Interest In Julio Teheran

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With few controllable starters available at the non-waiver trade deadline, teams have been reaching out to the Braves to gauge the availability of right-hander Julio Teheran, reports FanRag’s Jon Heyman. The Astros are one of multiple teams that has inquired, Heyman notes, and the Braves haven’t completely ruled out moving him prior to the deadline.

David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution adds more context to the story, noting that the Braves privately discussed the possibility of shopping Teheran this offseason, but were only going to put him on the market if they were able to land an arm such as Chris Sale, Chris Archer or Jose Quintana to take Teheran’s spot in the rotation. Atlanta was never able to pull off a trade for a front-line starter, and thus Teheran was retained to make the first start in the history of SunTrust Park.

That new park, of course, may have adversely impacted Teheran’s trade value. Atlanta’s new home has proven to be exceptionally hitter-friendly, and Teheran has been torched for a 7.58 ERA there, as compared to a 2.88 mark on the road. Of the 20 homers he’s yielded this year, 13 have come at home, despite the fact that he’s pitched four more innings on the road.

Attributing his struggles solely to the home park isn’t prudent, though, as Teheran has a 4.51 FIP and 4.49 xFIP away from SunTrust park, suggesting that much of that road split is a mirage. He’s seen his strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates all trend in the wrong direction this year, both at home and on the road. Teheran’s velocity has fallen a couple of miles per in recent years as well, and he’s currently sporting his worst swinging-strike and chase rates since 2012.

That said, it’s hard not to find Teheran’s contract highly appealing. He’s earning $6.3MM this season and is guaranteed $8MM in 2018 plus $11MM in 2019. The deal also carries a $12MM club option ($1MM buyout) for the 2020 season. All told, he’s guaranteed just $22.995MM through the end of the 2019 campaign (including the remainder of this year’s salary) and can be controlled through 2020 for $33.995MM. Even if Teheran is more of mid-rotation workhorse than a top-of-the-rotation arm, that’s a highly reasonable rate for a pitcher that has made at least 30 starts in each of the past four seasons with solid run-prevention numbers.

Astros Agree To Terms With First-Rounder J.B. Bukauskas

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4:25pm: Bukauskas will get a $3.6MM bonus, per MLB.com’s Jim Callis (via Twitter), which lands just $11,800 over the 15th pick’s allotment.

10:56am: The Astros have agreed to terms with first-round pick J.B. Bukauskas, reports Mark Berman of Houston’s FOX 26 (on Twitter). The former UNC right-hander is in Houston to complete his physical and formally sign his contract.

Bukauskas was a top draft prospect out of high school back in 2014, though he fell to the 20th round after asking teams not to select him. The D-backs took a shot on swaying him anyhow, though he rather predictably honored his commitment to North Carolina. This time around, he entered the draft rated as the No. 6 overall prospect, per Baseball America. Meanwhile, Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com ranked him seventh, while ESPN’s Keith Law rated him ninth and Fangraphs’ Eric Longenhagen ranked him 12th.

Bukauskas is a bit undersized, as he’s listed at 6’0″ and 195 pounds, though scouting reports across the board give him credit for a plus fastball and slider combination. Baseball America, in fact, calls his slider “the nation’s best breaking pitch,” noting that it consistently receives 70-grade ratings on the 20-80 scale, with some scouts placing an 80 on the pitch. He also has a changeup that has, in the past rated as an above-average offering but was rarely used this past season with the Tar Heels. Callis and Mayo, like others, note that there’s concern that he could end up pitching out of the bullpen, though they add that if he does ultimately prove to be a reliever, Bukauskas has closer upside.

Astros Set To Activate Charlie Morton

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  • The Astros have successfully weathered a slew of rotation injuries of late; needless to say, though, the team will be glad to welcome back its missing arms. Righty Charlie Morton will be activated to start on Friday, Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle writes, and he’ll be interesting to watch upon his return. Morton has a solid 4.06 ERA and even better peripherals, though it remains to be seen whether Houston will feel comfortable relying on him (among others) for a presumptive postseason staff. Fellow righty Collin McHugh is also making forward progress; Kaplan notes he’ll make a second rehab outing at Double-A. Meanwhile, as MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart tweets, top lefty Dallas Keuchel may be closing in on his own rehab assignment.

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