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Cristian Javier Targeting Second Half Return From Tommy John Surgery

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The Astros figure to enter the season plagued by a number of rotation injuries this winter. Both Cristian Javier and J.P. France underwent season-ending surgery last year and are locks to start 2025 on the injured list, while reporting yesterday revealed that both Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. are also slated to miss at least the start of the upcoming campaign. France indicated earlier this month that he was targeting a return from shoulder surgery in July of this year, while Ari Alexander of KPRC2 reports that Javier suggested during the club’s FanFest event yesterday that he’s eyeing a return at some point in the second half.

That’s a somewhat vague timetable, though it could still fall within the 12 to 14 month timeline that’s typically associated with UCL surgery. GM Dana Brown indicated back in October (as noted by MLB.com) that Javier could return as soon as late July. That would be shortly after the All-Star break and roughly 14 months after he went under the knife, though Javier’s more general second half timetable suggests at least some possibility of him returning later than previously anticipated. It’s surely not how the Astros were hoping things would go when they signed Javier to a five-year, $64MM extension prior to the 2023 campaign. The righty is due to make $10.4MM in 2025 as part of that contract before his salary jumps to $21.4MM for the final two years of the deal.

The Astros are surely hoping the right-hander will be able to return to the form he flashed in 2022, when he posted a 2.54 ERA (150 ERA+) and a 3.16 FIP in 148 2/3 innings of work before turning in a strong performance during the club’s championship run in October. He hasn’t been quite the same pitcher in the years since then, with a pedestrian 4.44 ERA (95 ERA+ and 4.61 FIP in 38 starts since the start of the 2023 season, but it’s not hard to imagine the soon to be 28-year-old hurler getting things back on track once he’s fully healthy. With Framber Valdez set to hit free agency following the 2025 season while both McCullers and Garcia are schedule to enter the open market the following winter, it would make sense if Houston decides to take things slowly with Javier as he works his way back from surgery given his importance to the long-term outlook of the club’s rotation.

Fortunately for Houston, they figure to be reasonably well-equipped to handle an extended absence for Javier should his time on the injured list bleed into August. The club’s projected Opening Day rotation figures to feature Valdez, Hunter Brown, Spencer Arrighetti, Ronel Blanco, and freshly acquired youngster Hayden Wesneski. Reinforcements should become available to the club throughout the season, as well. While Garcia and McCullers are no longer expected to be ready for Opening Day, Alexander notes that the latter has already resumed throwing off a mound and GM Dana Brown indicated yesterday that Garcia has resumed throwing as well. That would make a return early in the season feasible for both players, with France also seemingly likely to return over the summer and buy Javier extra time to rehab if necessary.

Jose Altuve Discusses Alex Bregman, Potential Move To Left Field

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As the top remaining free agent on the market, Alex Bregman has been the talk of baseball in recent days. That conversation bled over into the Astros’ FanFest event today, with a number of key members of the organization (including GM Dana Brown) commenting on Bregman’s free agency and the extent of Houston’s involvement at this stage of the winter. One such commenter was franchise face Jose Altuve. The nine-time All-Star spoke to reporters (including The Athletic’s Chandler Rome) today about Bregman and his free agency and had nothing but glowing remarks for his longtime teammate.

“I said it at the end of the season, said it in the offseason, we need to bring him back,” Altuve said of Bregman, as relayed by Rome. “He’s a big part of this team. You know how negotiations go. He’s a free agent, so he gets the chance to pick the best offer. But as a teammate, I want him back and hopefully we can make something happen for him.”

At the outset of the offseason, Brown made clear that the Astros’ top priority for the winter was keeping Bregman in the fold. Shortly after the winter meetings, however, the odds of a reunion between the two sides began to drastically shrink when the club dealt Kyle Tucker to the Cubs for third baseman Isaac Paredes before following that move up with a failed pursuit of third baseman Nolan Arenado before rounding out their infield by signing first baseman Christian Walker. The additions of Walker and Paredes left the club with an apparently settled infield mix, and at the time Bregman appeared to be receiving strong interest from a number of other clubs.

Since then, however, Bregman’s market has seemed to soften somewhat. The Blue Jays, Tigers, Red Sox, and Cubs have all expressed varying levels of interest in the infielder throughout the winter, but many of those suitors have seemed to have interest in Bregman only as a shorter-term addition while his camp has insisted that he remains focused on landing a long-term deal. The lack of movement in Bregman’s market, in conjunction with some apparent frustration within the Astros clubhouse about the club’s decision to replace Bregman in the lineup, has led the sides to begin talking again with Brown calling the discussions “positive” even as a deal coming together remains “a longshot.”

If the Astros were to successfully re-sign Bregman, that would require the club to make a change to its current infield plan. Bregman would dislodge Paredes from his current anticipated role as the club’s regular third baseman, and with Walker in the fold he wouldn’t be able to take over at first base on a regular basis. Yordan Alvarez’s presence as the club’s regular DH makes a move there similarly impossible. That, according to Rome, has led the Astros to consider the possibility of moving Paredes to second base while kicking Altuve from his career-long home at the keystone into the outfield as the club’s regular left fielder.

For Altuve’s part, he’s made it clear he’s on board if that’s what it takes to get Bregman back into the fold. “I want to win and he’s going to be a guy that’s going to make this team better,” Altuve told reporters, including Rome. “We have a better chance to win a championship with him. That’s my answer: I’m willing to do whatever for him to stay.”

It seems likely that if Bregman was brought back into the fold, that would be the alignment the club uses. Rome notes that manager Joe Espada told reporters today that moving Paredes into the outfield is something the club is “not really thinking about.” Neither Altuve nor Paredes have experience on the grass as professionals, though Paredes’s defense on the infield has generally been better regarded by advanced metrics in recent years. 2024 was a particularly rough season for Altuve with the glove, as he was the worst defensive second baseman in baseball according to Defensive Runs Saved and ahead of only Jorge Polanco according to Outs Above Average and Fielding Run Value.

Paredes, meanwhile, has just 67 games of experience at the keystone across three seasons in the majors but has been a roughly average defender all around the infield to this point in his career. That could make moving Altuve to left field a defensive upgrade to the club’s infield mix while also helping to address the club’s lack of options in the outfield after dealing Tucker. Jake Meyers is locked in as the club’s regular center fielder but the corners appear likely to be shared by Taylor Trammell, Chas McCormick, and Mauricio Dubon as things stand. That trio would be a solid enough solution for one outfield spot but is stretched extremely thin by covering both outfield corners.

Luis Garcia, Lance McCullers Jr. Won’t Be Ready For Opening Day

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Lance McCullers Jr. hasn’t pitched since Game 3 of the 2022 World Series, while Luis Garcia’s last MLB game was on May 1, 2023.  The long layoffs for both Astros right-handers will extend at least a bit into the coming season, as Houston GM Dana Brown told the Athletic’s Chandler Rome (multiple links) and other reporters that neither pitcher is expected to be ready for the Opening Day roster.  Both McCullers and Garcia are throwing, however, so Brown doesn’t think either righty will sidelined for too long into April.

Garcia underwent a Tommy John surgery in May 2023 and was initially expected to be back in action near the end of last season.  He started a minor league rehab assignment last June and was seemingly on the path to making that timeline, yet some lingering soreness between outings led to a pair of shutdowns, and the Astros ultimately announced last August that Garcia wouldn’t pitch in 2024.

Garcia shed some more light on his situation when speaking with Rome today, saying that some tightness in his throwing elbow in September led to a six-week shutdown for evaluation.  Fortunately, Garcia emerged from that latest setback without any serious injury, and now says he is feeling good as Spring Training approaches.

McCullers has battled injuries throughout his career, including a Tommy John procedure that cost him all of the 2019 season.  A right flexor tendon strain cost him most of the 2022 season before he returned that August to pitch in the Astros’ rotation down the stretch, and over three playoff starts during Houston’s run to the World Series title.

Heading into the 2023 campaign, McCullers developed a muscle strain during Spring Training, and then more flexor tendon damage emerged during his rehab process, leading to a surgery in June 2023.  He started a throwing program last summer that included some proper bullpen sessions, but like Garcia, McCullers also had trouble fully recovering in between outings.

McCullers didn’t progress far enough to start a rehab assignment in the minors, so he is now over two years removed from any game activity whatsoever.  It isn’t known why McCullers won’t be ready for Opening Day, unless it is simply because the Astros want to give him as much ramp-up time as possible to prepare after such a long time away from game action.  Given how many setbacks both pitchers have already endured, it can’t help but be viewed as something of a red flag that Garcia and McCullers will again begin the season on the injured list, even if Brown indicated that the Astros were just being cautious.

The team does have a full starting five (Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco, Spencer Arrighetti, Hayden Wesneski) penciled in to start the season, with Garcia and McCullers hopefully able to provide depth relatively soon after Opening Day.  J.P. France is aiming to be back in action by July as he recovers from shoulder surgery, while an August return would be a best-case scenario for Cristian Javier as he rehabs from a TJ surgery from last June.

GM Dana Brown: Astros Had “Positive” Talks With Alex Bregman, Signing “A Longshot”

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Just when it seemed like Alex Bregman’s time with the Astros was nearing an end, reports surfaced earlier this week that Houston’s six-year, $156MM offer to the third baseman from earlier in the offseason remained open, and that the club was perhaps considering a scenario that would see Jose Altuve move to left field, Isaac Paredes installed at second base, and Bregman back in his old spot at the hot corner.

Astros GM Dana Brown addressed the situation with MLB.com’s Brian McTagggart and other media members today, saying that the club indeed “had some conversations” with Bregman’s camp, with those talks moving in a “positive” direction.  While Brown described re-signing Bregman as “a longshot,” he noted that the door wasn’t closed on the chances of a reunion between the two sides.

“I would say [the door is] cracked,” Brown said.  “The fact that he’s still available, it just makes it interesting.  Like ’man, this guy is such a good player, he’s done so many wonderful things here.’  We’ll stick with the cracked door and see where our conversations lead.”

Houston almost addressed the third base position by acquiring Nolan Arenado from the Cardinals in December, but Arenado chose to exercise his no-trade clause.  While reports later surfaced that Arenado wasn’t entirely adverse to playing in Houston, at the time he had some concerns over the direction of an Astros team that had just a few days earlier traded away another star in Kyle Tucker.  However, once Arenado turned down the trade, the Astros pivoted to sign Christian Walker as their new first baseman, and thus Paredes was penciled into the third base slot.

Walker’s signing was officially announced just over a month ago, leaving Bregman as the odd man out in Houston even if the Astros never technically withdrew their original offer.  Suitors like the Tigers, Blue Jays, Red Sox, and Cubs have all been linked to Bregman in varying degrees but no deal has been reached, which seems to have led the Astros to circle back.  As Brown plainly put it, “we never realized that Bregman would still be on the market at this point.”

Whether Bregman takes that six-year, $156MM offer or the Astros perhaps bump the price a bit to help seal a deal, re-signing Bregman at any price would significantly boost the club’s payroll.  As per RosterResource’s projections, the Astros’ projected luxury tax number sits just over $244MM, putting the team above the first tax tier of $241MM.  Owner Jim Crane has implied that the Astros are willing to match last season’s $244MM payroll and $262MM tax number, as “it just depends on what players are available.”  Re-signing a known quantity like Bregman might well make Crane more comfortable about increasingly spending, though the Astros might also be moving some money off the books soon, if Ryan Pressly (owed $14MM in 2025) waives his no-trade clause to allow a proposed trade to the Cubs.

“Jim Crane has been very positive in terms of what this organization does to win….If we could do something that makes sense for this organization, we’ll do it.  If it doesn’t make sense financially, then we probably won’t do it,” Brown said.

Yordan Alvarez Discusses Late-Season Knee Injury, “Good To Go” For Spring Training

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The 2024 season came to a painful end both metaphorically and literally for Yordan Alvarez and the Astros, as the star slugger was hampered by a right knee sprain in the final week of regular-season action.  Alvarez missed Houston’s last six games of the schedule but was able to return for the team’s brief playoff run as a designated hitter, going 2-for-7 with a double and a walk in the Tigers’ two-game sweep of the Astros during the Wild Card Series.

The knee sprain was a little more serious than appeared at the time, as Alvarez told Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle through an interpreter that “there was a lot of damage” and “at the time of the injury, there was a lot of doubts” about whether or not a surgical procedure would be required.

“But the last three or four weeks, it’s been feeling great, so everything is good to go….Apparently, it wasn’t enough damage to have surgery, [because] the body’s been recovering good and I feel good to go,” Alvarez said.

Alvarez’s mention of that 3-4 week timeline is somewhat eyebrow-raising, as it would somewhat indicate that surgery remained on the table until pretty recently.  However, Alvarez declared himself ready for the start of Spring Training, and said he didn’t expect to have any limitations on his ability to play in left field.  “I’ve been running, training, and I haven’t had any setbacks, and it’s good,” Alvarez said.

This isn’t the first time knee problems have hampered Alvarez, since arthroscopic surgeries on both knees limited Alvarez to only two games during the 2020 campaign.  Alvarez has mostly been utilized as a DH during his career, but he has made 190 appearances as a left fielder over the last four years, giving the Astros a bit of extra flexibility in juggling their lineups.

A change to even this limited outfield usage could be coming, since manager Joe Espada told Kawahara and other reporters during the Winter Meetings that “I would like to kind of cut back on the amount of reps that [Alvarez] gets in left field.”  While this isn’t a huge surprise given Alvarez’s most recent knee issue and his subpar defense, it is noteworthy considering the Astros’ lack of outfield depth.  With former right Kyle Tucker now traded to the Cubs, Houston’s Opening Day starting outfield looks like some combination of Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers, Taylor Trammell, and utilityman Mauricio Dubon, with Shay Whitcomb as further depth and top prospect Jacob Melton expected to make his MLB debut at some point in 2025.

It isn’t the most inspiring outfield mix on paper, which is why the Astros were linked to such free agents and trade targets as Jurickson Profar, Cody Bellinger, and Alex Verdugo at various points this offseason.  Verdugo remains unsigned, and he would fulfill the Astros’ particular stated goal of adding a left-handed hitter to their predominantly right-handed lineup.  Beyond external additions, however, Houston is also at least considering a more creative answer of moving Jose Altuve to left field, if Alex Bregman is re-signed to play third base and Isaac Paredes is moved into Altuve’s old second base spot.

Christian Walker will help some of the offensive void left by Walker’s departure, but if Bregman also heads elsewhere, a healthy and productive Alvarez will be more critical than ever to Houston’s lineup.  Since Alvarez made his MLB debut in 2019, his 166 wRC+ is second only to Aaron Judge (180) among all big league hitters, with Alvarez hitting .298/.390/.583 with 164 home runs over his 2688 career plate appearances.  The slugger has also hit .294/.393/.551 with 12 homers across 252 career PA in the postseason, including ALCS MVP honors in 2021.

Cubs, Astros Still Discussing Pressly; Tigers No Longer In The Mix

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7:37pm: Nightengale reports that the Tigers are no longer in the running. If Pressly does agree to move, it’s expected to be to the Cubs.

6:57pm: The Astros have officially asked Ryan Pressly whether he’d approve a trade to the Cubs, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 reports that they’ve also asked the reliever if he’d accept a deal to the Tigers. Chandler Rome, Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic first reported this afternoon that the Tigers had been in discussions with Houston about Pressly.

In any case, it seems the ball is firmly in Pressly’s court. Bob Nightengale of USA Today writes that the Astros have reached a “tentative” agreement with at least one of those teams, which is obviously conditional on Pressly waiving the no-trade rights. Bruce Levine of 670 The Score suggests that the Cubs feel the holdups on the no-trade protection are “resolvable.”

Pressly has full no-trade protection as a player with at least 10 years of MLB service and five-plus service years with his current team. He grew up in the Dallas area and has pitched in Houston since the 2018 trade deadline. His wife Katharine is a Houston native. It’s not out of the question that he and his family simply prefer to stay there.

Pressly combined for 110 appearances between 2023-24, which triggered a $14MM vesting option on his deal. That’s probably a little above market value but not dramatically so. José Leclerc and Andrew Kittredge each signed $10MM free agent contracts this winter. Blake Treinen, who is six months older than Pressly, landed two years at $11MM annually.

After serving as Houston’s closer between 2020-23, Pressly moved into a setup role last year. That was in response to their late strike to add Josh Hader on a five-year free agent deal. He had a solid season, working to a 3.49 earned run average through 56 2/3 frames. Pressly’s strikeout rate dropped to a league average 23.8% clip — his lowest mark since his 2018 breakout —  but he posted a solid 7.4% walk rate while picking up 25 holds.

The Cubs and Tigers have both been exploring the closer market. Each would presumably give Pressly the chance to return to the ninth inning. Chicago has a few less experienced pitchers (e.g. Porter Hodge, Nate Pearson, Tyson Miller) who could compete for saves. It’s a similar story in Detroit, where Beau Brieske, Jason Foley, Will Vest and Tyler Holton are part of what would projects as a closer by committee group. The Tigers have a strong relief group but lean heavily on their bullpen in games not started by Tarik Skubal. Adding Pressly would solidify the back end. He’s a known commodity for skipper A.J. Hinch, who managed him in Houston between 2018-19.

Latest On Ryan Pressly

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12:40pm: Per a report from Chandler Rome, Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic, the Tigers are also in the Pressly talks but it “may be unlikely” for the righty to approve a trade to Detroit.

9:19am: The Astros have been shopping right-hander Ryan Pressly throughout the winter, but those efforts didn’t gain much traction until recently. That’s understandable in the sense that the free-agent market for relievers was largely frozen until the past couple of weeks. Now, with free agent bullpen arms flying off the board, interest in Pressly has seemingly picked up. The Cubs, Blue Jays and one yet-unknown club out west have all shown serious interest in Pressly over the past 24 hours.

Pressly, however, has full no-trade protection by virtue of his 10-and-5 rights (ten years of major league service, five-plus years with his current team). He can nix any trade to a location he doesn’t want. That’s of extra note for Pressly as a Texas native who’s playing his home games a bit more than 200 miles south of Dallas, where he was born and raised. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports this morning that Pressly has informed the Astros that he’s disinclined to approve a trade that’d send him too far east or west.

That would seemingly rule out both the Jays and any club on or near the west coast. It’s not yet clear which club out west is eyeing Pressly, though the D-backs have been vocal about their desire to add a closer. The A’s, Giants and Angels aren’t necessarily in the market for an experienced ninth-inning arm specifically, but all three could use another high-leverage arm in general.

All of that could be moot, however, if Pressly is wary of straying toward either coast and prefers to remain in Texas or somewhere in the country’s heartland. That could potentially bode well for the Cubs, though Heyman adds that Pressly has not yet made a decision one way or another on whether he’d approve a move to Wrigley Field. One swaying factor, speculatively speaking, could be that the Cubs would almost certainly use Pressly as their closer. That’s a role he filled — and filled quite well — in Houston from 2020-23, when he saved 102 games and pitched to a 2.99 ERA with a huge 31.5% strikeout rate in 198 2/3 innings. He was bumped to a setup role in 2024 after the Astros’ signing of Josh Hader on a five-year, $95MM contract.

Pressly’s 2024 season was solid all around but not quite up to his (lofty) prior standards. He logged a 3.49 earned run average over 56 2/3 innings and posted a 23.8% strikeout rate that stood as his lowest mark since the 2016 season. His 7.4% walk rate was comfortably better than league average but was still his highest mark in four years. His average fastball sat at 93.8 mph, per Statcast, marking his lowest number in more than a decade. Still, the right-hander’s broader track record is excellent. And, with the Astros potentially reengaging with Alex Bregman, there could be extra motivation for Houston to shed some payroll.

It’s hard to envision any scenario where the Astros re-sign Bregman and also dip beneath the luxury tax threshold, but shedding Pressly’s $14MM salary would lessen the sting of exceeding the tax line for what would be a second straight season. Per RosterResource’s projections, Houston is currently about $3MM north of the $241MM threshold.

Report: Alex Bregman Has Received Multiple Offers Of At Least Five Years

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With the month of February now just a week away, Alex Bregman remains a free agent. That has led to speculation that he may have to pivot his focus and try to secure a short-term pact, but that doesn’t seem to have happened yet. Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 reports today that Bregman has received offers of five years or longer from at least three teams this offseason, including the Astros. It’s not specified which clubs made these offers or when.

Bregman came into the winter as one of the top free agents available. He has hit .260/.349/.449 over the past three years while also getting strong grades for his third base defense. There was a bit of concern in 2024, as he got out to a slow start, slashing just .216/.283/.294 through the end of April. He eventually corrected and finished the year with a .260/.315/.453 line but his 6.9% walk rate was a career low.

Despite a less-than-perfect walk year, Bregman still came into free agency with a strong profile and justification to secure a strong deal. MLBTR predicted him for a seven-year, $182MM pact. Many observers expected him to return to the Astros and various reports indicated that the club made him an offer of $156MM over six years. Bregman and his reps, however, were looking to get to the $200MM plateau.

Today’s report indicates that some other clubs may have been willing to get into somewhat similar range as the Astros. It isn’t known which clubs made these offers or exactly how much money was on the table, but Bregman has been connected to teams like the Cubs, Red Sox, Tigers, Blue Jays, Mets and Phillies throughout the offseason.

Though that points to a decent market, it seems none of them were quite strong enough to get Bregman to put pen to paper. Though the Astros seemed to blink in their staredown with Bregman by acquiring Isaac Paredes and Christian Walker, recent reporting has suggested the club has kept its offer on the table and is still somewhat open to a reunion. Such a scenario would involve Bregman returning to the hot corner, Paredes going to second base and Jose Altuve to left field.

Whether that will end up happening or not likely depend on the other offers and if any club is willing to budge. If they are all somewhat similar and no club meaningfully separates itself from the pack, perhaps Bregman will choose to remain with the only club he’s ever known.

It’s also possible that some of Bregman’s suitors are no longer interested, even if they may have made strong offers earlier in the winter. The Tigers signed Gleyber Torres, reducing their need for an infield addition somewhat. They have remained engaged with Bregman but have reportedly hit a standstill. The Red Sox would perhaps have to move Rafael Devers to first base to fit Bregman in, making things awkward. Second base is more open at the moment but they may prefer to leave that spot open for Kristian Campbell, Marcelo Mayer or Vaughn Grissom. The Blue Jays added Anthony Santander recently, who isn’t an infielder but should make the team less desperate for an offensive upgrade. The Mets and Pete Alonso are seemingly playing hardball with each other but could still reunite, though the Jays seem to be somewhat involved there as well. The Phillies appear to have tried to trade Alec Bohm in conjunction with pursuing Bregman but never seemed to gain much traction there. The Cubs seemed to only be interested if Bregman were willing to pivot to a short-term pact. Jon Heyman of The New York Post says today that the Cubs are “believed” to be showing “significant interest” in Bregman alongside the Astros, though with the Red Sox and Tigers also involved.

Though the offers haven’t been strong enough for Bregman to sign anywhere, it’s perhaps understandable why he hasn’t done a short-term pivot. That’s a path that many other free agents have taken, including Matt Chapman and Cody Bellinger last winter. But if Bregman has had somewhat decent offers in the five- or six-year range, perhaps he doesn’t feel the need to go that way just yet. Just over a week ago, Bregman’s agent Scott Boras said there interest on long-term deals has been strong enough that changing course wouldn’t be necessary, matching this week’s reporting.

Time will tell if Bregman circles back to Houston or ends up elsewhere. The Astros made him a qualifying offer at season’s end and would receive a compensatory draft pick if he signs elsewhere, while the signing club would be subject to the associated penalties. Pitchers and catchers report to spring training in just over two weeks.

Blue Jays Have Also Shown Interest In Ryan Pressly

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If the Astros trade Ryan Pressly, the Cubs appear the likeliest landing spot. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported this evening that Chicago was nearing a deal for the veteran reliever. Multiple reports from the Houston beat indicated that Pressly has not agreed to waive his no-trade rights, however. It’s also not clear if the Cubs and Astros had agreed to a final trade package and were awaiting Pressly’s decision, or if the teams merely felt they were making progress in those conversations.

Chandler Rome, Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic report that while the Cubs are serious suitors for the two-time All-Star, no deal is believed to be imminent. According to The Athletic, the Blue Jays and at least one mystery team from the West Coast have also expressed interest. Brian McTaggart of MLB.com similarly wrote this evening that the Astros have fielded interest from multiple clubs on Pressly.

In any case, the 36-year-old righty controls his destination. Pressly has full no-trade protection as a player with at least 10 years of MLB service and five-plus service years with his current team. He grew up in the Dallas area and has pitched in Houston since the 2018 trade deadline. His wife Katharine is a Houston native. It’s not out of the question that he and his family simply prefer to stay there.

Whether Pressly would waive his no-trade clause to join the Cubs, Blue Jays or anyone else remains to be seen. There is no definitive reporting that he is unwilling to move. All that is clear is that he has not approved a trade to this point.

This could be a key decision for Houston’s overall offseason. The Astros have an offer out to Alex Bregman. In recent days, they’ve resumed talks with their longtime third baseman. Bregman is still pursuing a long-term contract; Houston’s initial offer was reportedly for $156MM over six years. The Astros project around $3MM north of the base luxury tax threshold. Offloading a few million dollars could allow them to duck below the CBT line for the moment. Signing Bregman would undoubtedly push them back into tax territory, though that’s perhaps an easier sell for ownership than it would be to pay the CBT even if he walks.

Pressly combined for 110 appearances between 2023-24, which triggered a $14MM vesting option on his deal. That’s probably a little above market value but not dramatically so. José Leclerc and Andrew Kittredge each signed $10MM free agent contracts this winter. Blake Treinen, who is six months older than Pressly, landed two years at $11MM annually.

After serving as Houston’s closer between 2020-23, Pressly moved into a setup role last year. That was in response to their late strike to add Josh Hader on a five-year free agent deal. He had a solid season, working to a 3.49 earned run average through 56 2/3 frames. Pressly’s strikeout rate dropped to a league average 23.8% clip — his lowest mark since his 2018 breakout —  but he posted a solid 7.4% walk rate while picking up 25 holds.

The Cubs and Jays could each offer Pressly their closer role. Chicago has a few less experienced pitchers (e.g. Porter Hodge, Nate Pearson, Tyson Miller) who could compete for saves. Toronto has already added Jeff Hoffman, Yimi García and Nick Sandlin this offseason. That trio joins Chad Green and Erik Swanson in the high-leverage mix. Hoffman is probably the favorite for the ninth inning, but he has been a setup man for most of his career. He recorded 10 of his 12 career saves for the Phillies last season. Pressly saved at least 26 games in each of his three full seasons as Houston’s closer.

Astros Have Kept Offer Out To Bregman

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This afternoon provided a surprise when USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported that the Astros were leaving the door open to bringing back Alex Bregman. It was generally expected that the Astros had moved on once they acquired Isaac Paredes and signed Christian Walker to play the corner infield spots.

However, it seems the Astros never fully closed the door on their longtime third baseman. Houston had reportedly made Bregman a six-year, $156MM offer before they landed Paredes as part of the Kyle Tucker return. Bregman obviously did not accept, though it does not seem that the team has pulled the offer even after what seemed to a pivot to contingency plans.

Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports that Houston’s offer “remains on the table.” Rome writes that pressure within the Astros’ clubhouse has contributed to the team reopening discussions with the two-time All-Star in recent days. It isn’t known if that means they’re open to pushing their offer beyond $156MM, or if they’re simply hoping that Bregman’s asking price will come down to their level now that he’s unsigned deep into January.

Nightengale suggested this afternoon that if the Astros managed to keep Bregman, they could slide Paredes to second base while bumping Jose Altuve to left field. Rome confirms that the team is indeed considering that scenario. While Altuve to the outfield doesn’t seem to be set in stone, Rome writes that Bregman would stick at third base if he signed back in Houston. They’d need to find somewhere else in the lineup for Paredes.

Money remains a stumbling block. The Astros exceeded the luxury tax threshold last season. Rome reports that owner Jim Crane has been reluctant to do so for a second straight year. Houston already projects narrowly above the $241MM base threshold, with RosterResource calculating their CBT number around $244MM. The Astros could make a trade to dip below that mark. They’ve been working to offload most or all of the $14MM owed to setup man Ryan Pressly, though the veteran righty has full no-trade rights and could scuttle those plans. Mauricio Dubón ($5MM) and Chas McCormick ($3.4MM) are on manageable arbitration salaries and could be possible trade options if Houston can’t deal Pressly.

There’s essentially no way they’d get below the tax line if they re-sign Bregman. He’d very likely command more than $25MM annually. Even if they trade Pressly and decide to deal Paredes, who’ll play on a $6.625MM arbitration salary, they’d be above the line. That the Astros apparently still have an offer out to Bregman demonstrates that Crane isn’t firmly committed to staying below the tax threshold. The owner has said as much this offseason, though he has also been reluctant to approve long-term deals. Houston hasn’t signed a free agent contract longer than the five-year, $95MM Josh Hader deal from last winter since Crane purchased the franchise more than a decade ago.

The Tigers, Red Sox and Blue Jays have also been linked to Bregman. Talks between the infielder and Detroit were reportedly at a standstill as of Tuesday evening.

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