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Poll: Who Will Win The AL Central?

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The Guardians rode a late surge in 2022 to a runaway division title in the American League Central, trouncing the second-place White Sox and third-place Twins by 11 and 14 games, respectively. It was a testament both to the development of several key young players in Cleveland as well as some staggering injury woes both in Chicago and Minnesota. Further down the division ranks, the rebuilds in Detroit and Kansas City both hit roadblocks, with the Tigers and Royals losing 96 and 97 games, respectively.

There was plenty of offseason activity throughout the division, however, and we can expect to see several touted prospects make their debuts in 2023 as well. Will that change the outlook? Let’s take a quick look at each team heading into the season.

Cleveland Guardians (92-70 in 2022)

The Guardians hit the second-fewest home runs of any team in baseball last season but nonetheless ranked 15th in runs scored, offsetting their lack of power with far and away the lowest team strikeout rate in baseball (18.2%). The pitching staff posted a collective 3.47 ERA, ranking sixth in the Majors, and while they were only 12th in strikeout rate (23.2%), they also had the game’s fifth-best walk rate (7.3%). Cleveland also dominated in one other key area: health. Guardians players spent the fewest cumulative days on the injured list of any team in the Majors at just 709, per Spotrac. The second-lowest team, the Orioles, clocked in at 790. Cleveland had less than one-third of the IL days of MLB’s two worst teams in that regard: the Reds (2,638) and the Twins (2,363).

Over the winter, Cleveland signed Josh Bell and Mike Zunino, adding some thump to the lineup. Zunino, in particular is an all-or-nothing hitter at the plate, but Guardians catchers in 2022 were the least-productive in the American League, so he should be an upgrade over last year’s backstops. Top prospects like catcher Bo Naylor, outfielder George Valera and infielder Brayan Rocchio are among the many hitters on the cusp of the Majors and should all be key reinforcements as Cleveland defends its crown.

Chicago White Sox (81-81 in 2022)

The White Sox were tanked by key injuries in 2022, with each of Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert, Lance Lynn, Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada, Yasmani Grandal, Michael Kopech, Aaron Bummer and Garrett Crochet spending at least a month on the shelf. The Sox ranked in the bottom third of the league in homers, the bottom half in runs scored and were also a middle-of-the-pack club in terms of rotation and bullpen ERA. Defensively, they were a mess, thanks in no small part to the outfield alignment. The Sox ranked 23rd in the Majors in Outs Above Average (-16), 27th in Defensive Runs Saved (-35) and dead last in Ultimate Zone Rating (-42.2).

The decision to let Jose Abreu walk in free agency was surely a blow to the clubhouse and lineup alike, but it’ll also allow Andrew Vaughn to slide from right field to his natural position, first base. Jimenez can spend significant time at DH, too, now that Andrew Benintendi has been signed to play left field. The Sox didn’t do much to address right field, where Gavin Sheets will try to fend off top prospect Oscar Colas, who should debut early in the season. They’ll hope that Mike Clevinger can replace the resurgent Johnny Cueto in the rotation, and Elvis Andrus is back to handle second base. All of baseball is pulling for closer Liam Hendriks as he battles cancer, and while his health takes priority above all else, there’s no getting around the fact that his absence hurts the relief corps as the Sox look for better results in 2023.

Minnesota Twins (78-84 in 2022)

The Twins were the opposite of the Guardians in terms of player health in 2022, and they’ll hope more than anything that their roster can remain on the field more in 2023. Even with all their health woes, the Twins still ranked in the top half of MLB in home runs and placed 16th in runs scored. Their rotation’s 4.11 ERA was 19th in MLB, while the bullpen’s ERA sat right at MLB’s midpoint.

Minnesota was the most active team in the division this offseason, improbably retaining Carlos Correa after an unprecedented free-agent saga saw deals with the Giants and Mets fall through. The Twins also traded star infielder Luis Arraez to land righty Pablo Lopez and a pair of prospects from the Marlins, giving them the deepest rotation they’ve had in some time — health permitting. Lopez, Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, Joe Ryan, a returning Kenta Maeda and Bailey Ober is a strong sextet around which to build the staff. Meanwhile, the Twins keyed in on defense, depth and defensive versatility with their other acquisitions. Catcher Christian Vazquez and outfielders Joey Gallo and Michael A. Taylor are all standouts with the glove (to say nothing of Gallo’s obvious power potential). Kyle Farmer and Donovan Solano can play all over the infield (and, in Farmer’s place, even behind the plate in a pinch).

The bullpen was left as is, with the Twins believing deadline pickup Jorge Lopez, sophomore Jovani Moran (who excelled late in the season) and a returning Jorge Alcala can provide the necessary boost alongside breakout star Jhoan Duran. Oft-injured top prospect Royce Lewis should return this summer, and the Twins could also get late looks at infielders like Edouard Julien and Brooks Lee.

Detroit Tigers (66-96 in 2022)

The Tigers’ 2021-22 offseason was headlined by acquisitions of Javier Baez and Eduardo Rodriguez, but by the end of the regular season those headlines shifted to a front office shuffle. The Tigers’ poor results led ownership to oust GM Al Avila and hire Giants GM Scott Harris as the new president of baseball operations. The 2022 Tigers saw key injuries to the entire core of their promising young rotation, with Casey Mize having Tommy John surgery, Tarik Skubal requiring flexor surgery and Matt Manning missing substantial time due to shoulder troubles. Center fielder Riley Greene and first baseman Spencer Torkelson didn’t develop as hoped in their rookie seasons. Baez and Rodriguez, meanwhile, didn’t live up to their respective contracts.

In Harris’ first offseason on the job, he traded relievers Gregory Soto and Joe Jimenez to add some near-MLB talent, including outfielder Matt Vierling, infielder Nick Maton and catcher Donny Sands. Free agents Matthew Boyd and Michael Lorenzen were signed to help solidify a rotation that’ll also get righty Spencer Turnbull back after he missed the 2022 season recovering from 2021 Tommy John surgery. It was the type of modest offseason that’s generally expected for a newly hired baseball operations leader as they take time to get a feel for the organization before making more sweeping changes. Prospect-wise, pitcher Wilmer Flores and third baseman/outfielder Justyn-Henry Malloy are among the names who could potentially make their debuts this season.

Kansas City Royals (65-97 in 2022)

The Royals had their own front office shakeup, as president of baseball ops Dayton Moore was dismissed after more than 15 years atop the front office. He was replaced by his own longtime top lieutenant J.J. Picollo. That decision came on the heels of a 2022 season in which the Royals, who’ve been focusing their rebuild on drafting and developing college pitchers, posted the fourth-worst rotation ERA in MLB (4.76). Right-hander Brady Singer had a breakout season, but none of Daniel Lynch, Jackson Kowar or Kris Bubic has found much success in the big leagues, and recent No. 4 overall pick Asa Lacy hasn’t progressed in the minors.

Given the manner in which the pitching stalled out, the Royals added veterans Jordan Lyles and Ryan Yarbrough while also re-signing Zack Greinke. That’ll raise the floor of the rotation while perhaps still allowing for some of Lynch, Kowar, Bubic, Jonathan Heasley or Carlos Hernandez to force their way into the picture. In the lineup, they’ll hope for further steps forward from a promising core of hitters including Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, Nick Pratto and MJ Melendez. Youngsters like second baseman Michael Massey, outfielder Drew Waters and infielder/outfielder Nate Eaton should all get prominent looks in 2023 as well.

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Projection systems are inherently divisive, so take this for what it’s worth, but FanGraphs gives the Guardians a slight edge on the Twins in 2023, with the White Sox in third place, followed by the Royals and the Tigers. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA, meanwhile, projects the Twins ever so slightly ahead of Cleveland, followed by Chicago in third place, Detroit in fourth and Kansas City in fifth.

Who do you think will win the AL Central?

Offseason In Review: Cleveland Guardians

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The Guardians had a pretty quiet offseason, but they splurged (by their modest payroll standards) on a pair of everyday sluggers to augment the lineup.

Major League Signings

2023 spending: $22.5MM
Total spending: $39MM

Option Decisions

  • None

Trades & Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

Josh Bell and Mike Zunino have combined for 82 home runs in 1713 total plate appearances since the start of the 2021 season, while the Guardians had a collective 127 homers over 6163 PA during the 2022 season.  Of all 30 Major League teams, only the punchless Tigers went yard fewer times than the Guardians in 2022, making power the obvious need for Cleveland heading into the offseason.

This isn’t to say that Bell or Zunino were necessarily at the top of the wishlist.  Zunino might not have even been the second choice, as such catchers as Sean Murphy and Christian Vazquez also drew interest from the Guards in both the trade and free agent markets.  However, the A’s and Guardians never lined up on a trade match for Murphy, and thus the backstop ended up headed to the Braves as part of a three-team, nine-player deal.  Vazquez, meanwhile, went elsewhere in the AL Central by signing a three-year, $30MM pact with the Twins.

With other options off the market, Cleveland pivoted to Zunino on a one-year, $6MM deal — significantly less than the cost of Vazquez’s deal, or the prospect cost it would’ve taken for the Guardians to top Atlanta’s offer for Murphy.  It’s fair to assume that the Guards’ limited payroll played some role in the front office’s decision to ultimately land on Zunino, as well as the team’s related need to use its minor league system as a steady pipeline of talent.

If Zunino is healthy, the Guardians can reasonably count on the backstop to deliver his customary blend of strong defense, a lot of power, and also a lot of strikeouts at the plate.  Health is no guarantee, however, since Zunino’s 2022 season was cut short by thoracic outlet syndrome surgery in July.  TOS surgery is still a new enough procedure that there isn’t much of a proven track record for predicting how well a player (particularly a hitter) might rebound in the aftermath.

In short, it means that the Guardians are somewhat rolling the dice with a position that has been relatively stable for years.  Cleveland has long been willing to accept subpar offense from their catchers (i.e. Roberto Perez, Austin Hedges, or Luke Maile) in exchange for excellent glovework, and yet in the wake of Zunino’s surgery, the Guardians don’t really know what they’re getting offensively or defensively behind the plate.

Unsurprisingly, the Guards have tried to mitigate that risk with other catchers, signing Cam Gallagher, Meibrys Viloria, and Zack Collins to minor league deals.  That trio and in-house candidates Bryan Lavastida and David Fry are all in competition for the backup catching job, and the Guardians are also surely hoping that Bo Naylor earns another MLB promotion at some point in 2023.  Naylor will begin the season at Triple-A to amass more regular playing time, but if Zunino or any of the backup candidates struggle, it might force Cleveland’s hand in regard to how much more time Naylor spends in the minors.

The catching position needed to be addressed with Hedges and Maile entering free agency, and first base also stood out as a position of need considering the Guards’ need for power.  The answer was Bell, who will team with Josh Naylor (Bo’s brother) in a first base/DH timeshare.  It is worth noting that Jose Abreu was another prominent name the Guardians considered, to the point that the Guards reportedly made Abreu a three-year offer before the first baseman opted to sign with the Astros for a three-year, $58.5MM deal that was presumably out of Cleveland’s price range.

Bell’s contract is for a more modest $33MM over two years, and it might end up being a one-year, $16.5MM pact since Bell has the ability to opt out after the 2023 season.  The contract size and structure reflects Bell’s inconsistency over the last four seasons, as other teams may have been wary about giving a longer-term deal to a player with so many extreme peaks and valleys in his production.

The bottom-line numbers are strong, as Bell has hit .264/.353/.475 with 89 homers in 2051 PA since the start of the 2019 season, translating to a solidly above-average 120 wRC+.  But, the 2022 season was a microcosm of Bell’s ability to swing between hot and cold.  After crushing the ball with the Nationals prior to the trade deadline, Bell was dealt to the Padres as part of the blockbuster Juan Soto trade, and the first baseman then struggled badly with San Diego.

On the plus side, Bell’s high-contact, low-strikeout approach at the plate is a match for a Guardians team that adheres to that offensive philosophy.  There is also a chance that Bell’s best power numbers are yet to come, if he can get the ball in the air more often and cut back on his near-league-leading grounder totals.

Bell and Zunino are the big additions to a Cleveland roster that will look very familiar to the 2022 model, and the “if it ain’t broke…” logic can certainly apply to the Guardians’ relatively slow winter.  The Guards were the youngest team in baseball in 2022, and yet many of these young talents helped lead Cleveland to the AL Central title and then the deciding fifth game of the ALDS against the Yankees.  As well, an argument can be made that the Guardians were ahead of the curve in preparing for the 2023 season, since they’ve already built a roster based around speed and defense heading into a season where both facets of the game will be emphasized by the new rules.  (Even the pitch clock adjustment should be less difficult for a team with so many players who have so recently competed under a clock in the minor leagues.)

President of baseball operations Chris Antonetti left no wiggle room in stating they “have every intention of trying to contend [in 2023], and trying to win a World Series.”  Still, even if the Guardians considered trading for Murphy, the concept of packaging several prospects in a win-now move generally isn’t Cleveland’s style.  Likewise, even trading more established players like Amed Rosario, Aaron Civale, or Zach Plesac to create room for the newcomers might’ve been a tactic the Guardians would’ve explored if they didn’t feel they were genuinely close to competing for a championship.  This isn’t to say that one of the starting pitchers or maybe even an everyday shortstop like Rosario might not be on the trade block by the deadline, but that would mean that either the Guardians have fallen out of the race, or else the team has immense faith that one of its wealth of young pitchers or young middle infielders is ready for a larger role.

The Guards did move some younger players in trades this winter, partly out of necessity to open up 40-man roster spaces for more up-and-comers.  Will Benson, Carlos Vargas, Owen Miller, and Jose Fermin all had some nice numbers in the minor leagues and Benson and Miller had even made their MLB debuts, but the Guardians moved all four of these players in low-level deals for cash or for minor leaguers who didn’t yet need to be placed on the 40-man.

The Nolan Jones-for-Juan Brito trade was a bit different, as Brito did immediately secure a spot on the 40-man roster.  The deal probably came as a surprise to some Cleveland fans who wondered why the Guardians were moving a player recently considered among the team’s top prospects, since Jones was a regular on top-100 lists from 2019-21.  That said, the Guards felt comfortable in moving Jones (coming off his MLB debut season) to the Rockies for Brito, a 21-year-old middle infielder who has yet to reach high-A ball.

It could be the Guardians were simply taken by Brito’s ability strong minor league production and up-the-middle defensive profile, or perhaps they had concerns about Jones’ high strikeout totals and his lack of a clear-cut defensive position.  A natural third baseman, he obviously had no path to playing time at the hot corner in Cleveland.  Since Jones was ultimately dealt for a prospect and not more of a win-now piece, perhaps other teams shared these concerns about Jones’ viability at the big league level.

More deals could certainly emerge over the course of the season, as the Guardians could be tempted to make a more significant prospect-for-veteran swap at the deadline in order to bolster themselves for a playoff race.  Antonetti and GM Mike Chernoff have set out to make the Guardians into perpetual contenders rather than a team that pushes their chips in for a singular run, but there might be a bit of extra pressure to try and win while the Guards still have Bell, Rosario (set for free agency after the 2023 season), Shane Bieber (after 2024), and while Jose Ramirez is still in his prime.  Plus, given how longtime manager Terry Francona isn’t sure how long his health problems will allow him to keep managing, the organization surely wants to capitalize on having one of the game’s best skippers in the dugout.

We’ve already seen some hints of Cleveland’s aggressiveness in its payroll hike, as the Guardians are set to spend around $90.7MM in 2023.  It isn’t a top-tier payroll by any measure, but it is an increase from the approximate $69MM the Guards spent on last year’s player budget.  It remains to be seen how much more leeway (if any) Antonetti and Chernoff have for any midseason additions, though it’s probably safe to assume that the Guardians aren’t going to suddenly splurge on any high salaries at the deadline.

How would you grade the Guardians’ offseason? (Link to poll)

Read The Transcript Of Our Chat Hosted By Former All-Star Second Baseman Jason Kipnis

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Jason Kipnis spent an hour fielding questions from MLBTR readers this morning.  Read about his career below, and click here read a transcript.

Jason Kipnis was selected by the Indians in the second round of the 2009 draft. The Arizona State product reached the big leagues within two years. Kipnis collected a walk-off single for the first hit of his MLB career in just his second game. He’d go on to post an excellent .272/.333/.507 line as a rookie.

The left-handed hitter followed up with a .257/.335/.379 showing with 14 home runs and 31 stolen bases over 152 games in his first full big league season. He eclipsed 30 steals again the next year and posted a .284/.366/.452 mark with 15 longballs. Kipnis earned his first All-Star nod after winning the AL’s Player of the Month award in June 2013. He helped the Indians reach the Wild Card game and earned an 11th-place finish in AL MVP balloting.

After that season, the Indians committed to Kipnis on a six-year, $52.5MM extension. The deal, which also contained a 2020 club option, represented the second-largest investment in franchise history at the time. It cemented Kipnis as Cleveland’s primary second baseman through the end of the decade, and he responded with another handful of productive years.

Jason Kipnis | Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

While his power numbers took a step back in 2014, Kipnis stole another 22 bags in 25 attempts. He’d return to the All-Star Game for a second time during the ’15 campaign, finishing with a .303/.372/.451 slash that included the seventh-highest batting average and on-base percentage among qualified American League batters. Kipnis would pick up down-ballot MVP support for a second time as a result.

He had another very strong season in 2016, setting a career mark with 23 home runs. Through 688 trips to the dish, he hit .275/.343/.469 and swiped 15 more bases. The Indians won 94 games to claim the AL Central title and promptly tore through the Junior Circuit playoff field. After sweeping the Red Sox, Cleveland took the American League Championship Series in five games from Toronto. Kipnis was excellent in both the Division Series and a seven-game World Series against the Cubs. Cleveland came up a run short of the title, dropping one of the best World Series in recent history in the decisive extra-inning contest.

Injuries kept him to 90 games during the following season. Kipnis returned to tally 601 plate appearances of .230/.315/.389 hitting the next year, followed by a .245/.304/.410 mark in 2019. Cleveland bought out his option the next offseason, sending him to free agency for the first time. Kipnis signed a minor league contract with the Cubs — his childhood favorite team as a Northbrook, Illinois native — and made the big league roster out of camp. He locked in a $1MM base salary in so doing and hit .237/.341/.404 in 44 of the 60 games during the shortened schedule.

Kipnis returned to free agency at year’s end. He signed a minor league pact with the Braves but didn’t get a big league look on the eventual World Series champions despite a massive .290/.390/.518 showing over 59 games for Triple-A Gwinnett. That’d prove his final season as a pro player. Kipnis didn’t sign anywhere in 2022 and officially announced his retirement last month.

Overall, Kipnis logged parts of ten seasons at the major league level. He tallied just under 5000 plate appearances in 1165 games, hitting .260/.333/.416 with 126 home runs, 260 doubles, 545 runs batted in and 607 runs scored. Like his first MLB knock, Kipnis’ 1,000th hit couldn’t have come in much more dramatic fashion. He connected on a walk-off grand slam off Ian Hamilton to take down the division-rival White Sox in September 2018.

Jason, who announced his retirement last month, graciously took some time to chat with MLBTR readers this morning, talking about his favorite memories and teammates, sharing experiences from playing in the World Series, discussing his transition into broadcasting work and quite a bit more. Click here to read a transcript, and be sure to follow Jason on Twitter @TheJK_Kid.

Injury Notes: Montas, Musgrove, Hentges, Lux

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Yankees right-hander Frankie Montas told reporters yesterday that he expects to pitch in the majors at some point this season, and could begin throwing in about two months (link via MLB.com). Montas, who underwent shoulder surgery two weeks ago, noted that he “wasn’t fully 100%” when the Yankees acquired him from Oakland at the trade deadline last year, though he tried to pitch through the issue.  The results of that attempt were rather discouraging, however, as Montas sported a 6.35 ERA, 38% worse than league average by ERA+, with a 4.93 FIP in 39 2/3 innings with the Yankees following the trade, which sent Montas and Lou Trivino to the Bronx in exchange for a four prospect package headlined by left-hander Ken Waldichuk.

The Yankees seem comfortable filling the hole in the rotation left by Montas internally with one of Domingo German or Clarke Schmidt. This hardly comes as a surprise, given the strength of New York’s rotation. During the offseason, the club added ace Carlos Rodon to a rotation that already included Gerrit Cole, Nestor Cortes, and Luis Severino. Still, it’s certainly good news for the club that Montas expects to return at some point in the second half, as he could give the club a boost down the stretch if able to return to his old form. The right-hander posted a 3.51 ERA (119 ERA+) with a 3.49 FIP in 336 innings of work from 2019 to 2021, and had been pitching well in Oakland last year prior to the trade, sporting a 3.18 ERA (118 ERA+) with a 3.35 FIP through his 104 2/3 innings as a member of the A’s last year.

More injury updates from around the game:

  • Padres righty Joe Musgrove began throwing off flat ground yesterday, as noted by MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell. Musgrove has been held back with a fractured big toe on his left foot this spring, and has yet to land on his left foot while throwing, instead keeping both feet rooted to the ground. The Padres, who were planning to go with a six-man rotation to open the season prior to Musgrove’s injury, are surely hoping for his quick return to action, as the right-hander figured to be a key cog at the top of San Diego’s rotation this year alongside Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and recently signed Michael Wacha. Musgrove posted a 2.93 ERA (127 ERA+) with a 3.59 FIP in 181 innings of work last season, earning his first All-Star bid in the process. He’s entering the first season of a five-year, $100MM contract extension he signed last summer.
  • Guardians manager Terry Francona said yesterday that the progress of lefty reliever Sam Hentges, who has been slowed this spring by shoulder inflammation, was “really, really encouraging” (link via MLB.com). Francona notes that Hentges is set to begin doing dry work shortly and that it wouldn’t “be a surprise if he comes [back] quick,” though there’s been no specifics updates to his timetable for return. Hentges was among the best southpaw relievers in the sport last year, with a 29.4% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate backing up his sterling 2.32 ERA that clocked in 65% above league average by ERA+. The Guardians shut Hentges down from throwing back on March 1 and said he’d be evaluated on a week-to-week basis.
  • Dodgers manager Dave Roberts noted to reporters, including Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic, that shortstop Gavin Lux’s surgery went well. Lux suffered a torn ACL and damage to his LCL while running the bases during an early spring training game, and Roberts indicated that surgery revealed “more than a sprain” in Lux’s LCL — indicating significant damage to two of the 25-year-old’s cruciate ligaments. Lux is expected to miss the entire 2023 season as he rehabs from the surgery, with the Dodgers slated to rely on trade acquisition Miguel Rojas as their primary shortstop. Utilityman Chris Taylor is expected to see occasional time at the position as well.

The Guardians’ Former Rule 5 Breakout Reliever

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The Guardians surprised a number of onlookers with their run to an AL Central title last season. Among the reasons for that success: a bullpen that was one of the league’s most effective. Cleveland relievers finished fifth in ERA (3.05), sixth in strikeout percentage (26.4%) and fourth in ground-ball rate (46.4%).

Some of that excellent rate production was a byproduct of a strong rotation that consistently worked deeper into games than most. Cleveland relievers finished just 26th in innings pitched. A reliable starting staff no doubt took some of the pressure off manager Terry Francona and the top late-game weapons at his disposal.

That’s not to take anything away from the coaching staff or the relievers overall, however. Cleveland had eight relievers who threw 35+ innings last season; seven of them finished with an ERA of 3.25 or better. Five allowed fewer than three earned runs per nine innings, with the bulk of that group consisting of generally lower-profile hurlers who were acquired without much fanfare.

That’s perhaps best personified by 27-year-old righty Trevor Stephan, who broke out with an All-Star caliber showing in his second big league season. The 6’5″ hurler pitched in 66 games and tallied 63 2/3 innings. He posted a 2.69 ERA while striking out an excellent 30.7% of opposing hitters with a solid 48.1% ground-ball rate. Stephan picked up swinging strikes on 16.2% of his total offerings, a top 25 rate among relievers with 30+ innings.

There was very little to nitpick in Stephan’s performance. He missed bats, kept the ball on the ground when he did surrender contact, and limited walks to a tiny 6.7% clip. Stephan overwhelmed right-handed opponents, surrendering just a .207/.263/.293 line in 153 plate appearances. Lefty batters hit .280 against him but without significant impact, reaching base at a .348 clip while slugging .380. Stephan mixes three pitches in a power arsenal, backing up a 96-97 MPH fastball with a wipeout splitter and a quality slider.

While that production didn’t come entirely out of nowhere, it was a huge development for a pitcher who could have found himself on the roster bubble not that long ago. Originally selected in the third round of the 2017 draft by the Yankees, the University of Arkansas product spent four years in the New York farm system but didn’t secure a 40-man roster spot. He’d posted fine but unexceptional numbers as a starting pitcher between High-A and Double-A in 2019. Like every other minor leaguer, he wasn’t able to log any game action in 2020.

The Yankees opted not to protect him from the Rule 5 draft during the 2020-21 offseason. Cleveland nabbed him with the 24th selection and kept him on the MLB roster the entire following year. Stephan had an inconsistent rookie year working mostly in low-leverage innings. He posted a 4.41 ERA through 63 1/3 frames, striking out an impressive 26.6% of opponents but surrendering far too many walks and home runs. That changed in 2022, a season in which Stephan dramatically increased the use of his split to great success.

Stephan now looks like a key-high leverage bridge to star closer Emmanuel Clase. He joins hard-throwing James Karinchak as the top righty Cleveland setup arms heading into 2023. Southpaw Sam Hentges — a former fourth-round pick who had a breakout ’22 season of his own — would have a key role if healthy, though he’s battling a shoulder issue with an uncertain recovery timetable.

Controllable through 2026 and not eligible for arbitration until next offseason, Stephan would be an incredibly valuable piece for the foreseeable future if he’s able to replicate most of last year’s success. He already looks like one of the better Rule 5 selections in recent memory, posting the caliber of season rarely seen from players available via that process. The 2020 Rule 5 draft generally turned out far better than most, with the biggest successes coming at the Yankees’ expense. In addition to Stephan, New York lost right-hander Garrett Whitlock to their archrivals in Boston that year.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Guardians’ Sam Hentges Shut Down Due To Shoulder Issue

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Guardians reliever Sam Hentges has been shut down due to a shoulder issue and will be evaluated on a week-to-week basis moving forward, manager Terry Francona announced this morning (link via Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer). Hentges felt discomfort after his most recent spring outing, and a subsequent MRI revealed inflammation.

“Week-to-week” is an ominous designation for Hentges, who quietly broke out as one of the best lefty relievers in the league last season. The 26-year-old logged 62 innings of 2.32 ERA ball for Cleveland in 2022, fanning a hefty 29.4% of his opponents against a better-than-average 7.8% walk rate and a mammoth 61.5% ground-ball rate. He allowed just three home runs on the season and, in addition to dominating left-handed batters (.143/.194/.176), held right-handers in check as well (.215/.301/.315).

It was a remarkable transition for Hentges, a former fourth-round pick (2014) who’d made his MLB debut in 2021 but struggled as both a starter and a reliever during that rookie campaign. Hentges pitched nearly the same number of innings in ’21 (68 1/3) but was rocked for a 6.68 ERA with vastly inferior strikeout (21.4%), walk (10.1%) and ground-ball rates (45.8%) to the ones he recorded in ’22. Hentges scaled back the usage of his four-seamer, slider and curveball during his sophomore season in Cleveland, instead leaning heavily into his sinker. He also saw his average velocity jump considerably — from 94.8 mph to 96.1 mph on the four-seamer and from 93.3 mph to 95.7 mph on the sinker — when working exclusively in shorter stints.

Hentges wasn’t limited to one-inning stints during that breakout showing, either. He worked more than one inning in 26% of his appearances in 2022 and on six occasions completed two or more frames. That prevented him from ever working on three consecutive days, but he was still a vital cog in what was one of MLB’s best bullpens in 2022; Guardians relievers worked to a collective 3.05 ERA — the fifth-best mark in the Majors. The Cleveland bullpen also ranked sixth in strikeout rate, seventh in home-run rate and ninth in walk rate.

As it stands, Hentges is the only lefty projected for a spot in Francona’s bullpen to begin the season. Tim Herrin is the lone southpaw reliever elsewhere on the 40-man, though lefty starters Joey Cantillo or Konnor Pilkington could potentially be called upon as bullpen options if needed. Lefties Phillip Diehl and Caleb Baragar signed minor league contracts with non-roster invites over the winter, and homegrown southpaw Andrew Misiaszek also got an invite to camp.

There’s no indication at this time that Hentges is in jeopardy of missing a substantial chunk of the regular season, but if the Guards want to add some insurance, the free-agent market still has a few notable names. Zack Britton, Will Smith and old friend Brad Hand are all currently unsigned.

AL Notes: Kwan, Bieber, Varsho, Pearson

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After a sensational rookie season, Steven Kwan says he’s open to discussing a long-term contract extension with the Guardians, according to Zack Meisel of The Athletic.

Kwan finished third in AL Rookie of the Year voting last year, after posting a .298/.373/.400 line with six home runs across 638 plate appearances. A lot of his value was in the defensive side of things, as Kwan amassed 21 Defensive Runs Saved and 10 Outs Above Average for his work in left field, contributing to a 4.4 fWAR rookie year. It was quite the rookie year for a player who was drafted in the fifth round of the 2018 draft and never featured on any top-100 prospect lists.

In any case, Kwan is now a nailed on starter for the Guardians and he says “it’s mind-blowing” to even be discussing a long-term extension. Kwan picked up a full year of service time for the Guardians last year, which means he has two more seasons of pre-arb control and then three years of arbitration before he likely hits free agency after the 2027 season. While it seems highly unlikely anytime soon, Kwan could technically be optioned to the minors still, in which case his scheduled free agency could be pushed back.

As for what a contract extension might look like, Ronald Acuna Jr.is the most obvious comp that immediately comes to mind after he signed an eight-year, $100MM contract with Atlanta after posting 4.1 fWAR in almost a full year of service time. Acuna was the consensus top prospect in all of baseball going into his rookie year, so there was a fair bit more hype and certainty around his future. On the flip side, that deal was widely considered to be extremely team-friendly at the time, given Acuna’s upside as an elite five-tool player. Regardless, it’s an interesting starting point to begin considering what a potential extension for Kwan may look like.

Here’s some more notes from around the American League:

  • Sticking with Cleveland, and one player who seems unlikely to be taking an extension is starting pitcher Shane Bieber. Cleveland’s ace told reporters he’d “love to entertain that, but right now, I’m going to focus on what I can control and that’s my work on the field.” Bieber has two remaining years of club control and is coming off a season in which he tossed 200 1/3 innings of 2.88 ERA ball, finishing seventh in AL Cy Young voting. What that means is that any extension for Bieber is going to be significant, and likely well above the biggest contract Cleveland’s ever given out, Jose Ramirez’ five-year, $124MM extension.
  • Shifting north of the border to Toronto, and headline trade acquisition Daulton Varsho is set to be a big part of the Blue Jays’ plans this season, but it seems he’ll be playing almost exclusively in left field. According to The Athletic’s Kaitlyn McGrath, there are currently no plans for Varsho to catch any spring training games for the Blue Jays. Of course, Varsho could sporadically catch in the case of any emergency, but it’s unlikely he’d approach anything near the 55 games he caught for Arizona over the past two seasons. That’s not a huge surprise, given Toronto traded away Gabriel Moreno to get Varsho and have Alejandro Kirk and Danny Jansen slated to handle the catching duties this season. Varsho hit .235/.302/.443 with 27 home runs while earning 17 Outs Above Average for his outfield work in Arizona last year.
  • McGrath’s report also confirms that former top prospect Nate Pearson is being built up as a reliever this spring. While he won’t be starting, it does seem like he’ll be in more of a bulk role, rather than a one inning relief role, per McGrath. Pearson, once a top-ten prospect in all of baseball, has been restricted to just 33 largely unsuccessful big league innings since his debut in 2020, and didn’t pitch at all in 2022 as a lat strain restricted him to just 15 2/3 minor league innings. McGrath reports that Pearson was sitting at 96-97 mph, with a fastball that topped out at 100 mph.

Jason Kipnis Announces Retirement

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Former Indian and Cub Jason Kipnis has formally announced his retirement in a post on Twitter. Kipnis’ last appearance in the majors came in a Cubs uniform back in the 2020 pandemic-shortened year.

Drafted by Cleveland in the second round of the 2009 draft, Kipnis rose through the ranks as a highly regarded prospect, earning recognition on top-100 prospect lists prior to the 2011 season. That was the year Kipnis would make his big league debut as well, as he slashed .272/.333/.507 with seven home runs in an impressive 36 game rookie stint.

That was enough for Kipnis to earn the starting second base job in Cleveland the following year, a spot he wouldn’t relinquish for a number of seasons. After hitting .284/.366/.452 with 17 home runs in 2013, earning a trip to the All Star game and finishing 11th in AL MVP voting, Kipnis was rewarded with a six-year, $52.5MM extension in April of 2014. A disappointing season would follow but Kipnis would bounce back in style, hitting .303/.372/.451 and making his second trip to the All Star game. He’d also break the Cleveland record for individual hits in May, picking up 51 in a month which saw him hit .429/.511/.706.

Another strong showing would follow in 2016, as Kipnis would help Cleveland go as far as the World Series, where they’d fall in seven games to the Cubs. That’d be the last above-average offensive campaign for Kipnis, as his wRC+ would sit at just 86 between 2017-19, a period in which Kipnis would slash .236/.305/.403. That’d culminate in Cleveland declining his club option for 2019, allowing Kipnis to test free agency for the first time in his career.

Free agency wasn’t fruitful for Kipnis, and in February of 2020 he landed with the Cubs on a minor league deal. He’d go on to crack their roster and hit .237/.341/.404 over a 44-game stretch during that 60-game season. While Kipnis landed a minor league deal with Atlanta in 2021, he wouldn’t crack their roster and was released at the end of the season.

Kipnis spent the bulk of his ten big league seasons manning second base, but transitioned to become an outfield option for Cleveland towards the backend of his time there, logging innings in center field in both 2017 and 2018.

All told, Kipnis finishes his career with a batting line .260/.333/.416 with 126 home runs, 1,147 hits and 136 stolen bases. That 1,000 hit came in true style, as Kipnis launched a walk-off grand slam against the White Sox in September, 2018. MLBTR congratulates Kipnis on a fine playing career, and wishes him all the best in whatever comes next.

Top Guardians Prospect Daniel Espino Shut Down Eight Weeks With Shoulder Tear

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Guardians right-hander Daniel Espino, ranked as one of top overall prospects in all of baseball, will be shut down from throwing for at least the next eight weeks after being diagnosed with a strain of his subscapularis in his right shoulder and a tear of the anterior capsule in that same shoulder, per the team. Cleveland also announced that 2022 first-round pick Chase DeLauter will miss at least four months due to a fracture in his left foot that required surgery last month. The outfielder suffered a different foot fracture last April while still playing at James Madison University.

Espino’s injury is the latest developmental setback for the 22-year-old righty, who ranks among the sport’s top 25 prospects at each of Baseball America, MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus. That’s due largely to an electric arsenal, headlined by an upper-90s heater that can reach triple digits, a plus slider and a pair of potentially average or better offerings in his changeup and curveball. Espino got out to a particularly brilliant start in 2022, posting a 2.45 ERA and striking out 35 of his 68 opponents in 18 1/3 innings through four starts.

Unfortunately for Espino, those four outings would be his only appearances of the season. He missed a couple months due to tendinitis in his knee, and he also battled shoulder troubles later in the summer. That same balky shoulder will now require a shutdown of roughly two months. A best-case scenario will see Espino resume throwing in late April, but even then, he’d need a fair bit of work before he was ready to pitch in a game setting. One would imagine he’ll be in line for a lengthier look in Double-A once he’s reached that point.

Espino was the No. 24 overall pick in the 2019 draft, but he’s managed only 156 1/3 professional innings to date thanks to last year’s injuries and the canceled 2020 minor league season. There’s still time for him to compile a fair number of innings in 2023, but it’s nevertheless discouraging for the organization and its fans that he’ll again begin the year sidelined due to health troubles.

As for DeLauter, he’s yet to even play in a professional game, thanks to that fractured foot last year, and he’ll now miss a substantial portion of the upcoming season after sustaining a new break. In a total of 66 NCAA games, DeLauter posted a comical .402/.520/.715 batting line with 15 home runs, 27 doubles, four triples, 24 steals (in 30 tries) and more walks (62) than strikeouts (45). Baseball America ranks him as the ninth-best prospect in a deep Guardians farm system.

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